2023 NFL MVP race (1 Viewer)

[Deamon]

I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

We didn't turn it into that, that's just often what it is.

Wait... How did Kupp prove us wrong? He got 1 vote out of 50 lol

He should have won. Dude gave the middle finger to voters and went apeshit in the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl.

So you're saying Hill will do the same this year by getting almost no votes and going apeshit in the playoffs?

 

[fightingillini]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

It was fascinating to watch MIA struggle to move the ball when Hill was out. Completely different offense.

Hill won't win the MVP but this should be a clear indication that he should.

Right now Dak is the favorite.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

So you think that the Ravens would still be a decent offensive team with Lamar out? I would bet that Miami would be a more formidable team with Hill out than Baltimore would be with Lamar out over a course of 10+ games. Not saying that Hill shouldn’t be in the MVP discussion—I’m just saying that I think that your rationale in regards to HIll is very debatable with other players in the league. The Dolphins are one game better than the Chiefs right now. If you take Hill off of the Dolphins or Mahomes off of the Chiefs—I would bet that the Chiefs drop off far more and the offense sputters. I don’t think that Mahomes is in the top tier of MVP candidates right now—but with your rationale—I think you would have to consider him.

I haven't watched much of Lamar this year to comment. Not sure why the Ravens have seemed invisible in prime time this year and I get a Manning Cast of the Giants every other week.

Seems like the QBs this year are very good but not great. Hill is head and shoulders above his peers. Right now I would have Purdy second behind Hill, but I suspect there are another 10 QBs you could put with CMac, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk and they would be in the MVP race.

 

[BassNBrew]

I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

We didn't turn it into that, that's just often what it is.

Wait... How did Kupp prove us wrong? He got 1 vote out of 50 lol

He should have won. Dude gave the middle finger to voters and went apeshit in the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl.

So you're saying Hill will do the same this year by getting almost no votes and going apeshit in the playoffs?

Yeah...I suspect he'll be cheated on the award because the stupid voters will look at the standings and pick the QB on the top team. As much as Jalen is getting poohed on right now I would be surprised to see him win it after feasting on some cupcakes.

 

[Anarchy99]

I agree that last night showed that Hill is 100 times more valuable than Tua (who is nothing more than average QB surrounded by elite talent/crazy speed), but since I don't see voters giving it to a WR, I just don't consider him a viable option at this point, unfair as that is.

It feels like a 2-horse race now between Dak and Purdy. Hurts has too many turnovers now, and neither Jackson nor Mahomes have the stats to really made a good case, even though their teams will likely end up near the top of the AFC seedings.

Realistically, if the Bills make the playoffs, Josh Allen is probably the best candidate, but he will have too many turnovers as well.

The Bills would have to win out for Allen to have a chance. He already likely has too many losses. BUF still has to play DAL and at MIA, so not sure how likely they will be to win out.
Lamar doesn't have the stats because his key weapons have been banged up. The Ravens are in the same spot as the Bills . . . they probably won't win out (at JAX, at SF, MIA, PIT).
Hurts could easily get back into the mix facing what should be an easier schedule (at SEA, NYG twice, and ARI). The Eagles could ramp of the offense in those games to bad Hurts' stats as well.
Dallas has a tough slate (at BUF, at MIA, DET, at WAS). On paper, the Niners only have that one game against the Ravens in the tough category (also face at ARI, at WAS, and LAR).
It could still come down to a key injury, who wins out, who chokes away a big game, who gets the top seed, etc. Still enough football left to change how things look.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

It was fascinating to watch MIA struggle to move the ball when Hill was out. Completely different offense.

Hill won't win the MVP but this should be a clear indication that he should.

Right now Dak is the favorite.

Loved seeing it. I was a detractor on Miami's Hill acquisition. Opps....that was a miss.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah...I suspect he'll be cheated on the award because the stupid voters will look at the standings and pick the QB on the top team. As much as Jalen is getting poohed on right now I would be surprised to see him win it after feasting on some cupcakes.

I will push back a little here. No doubt Hill's numbers have been great (potentially record breaking) . . . but a lot of his production has come in blowouts. He's averaged 67/0.5 in the Dolphins 4 losses. He's been awesome in games decided by 14+ points . . . 145/1.2 in 6 blowouts. Similarly, those numbers came against a relatively easy slate of teams. Obviously, Hill had a huge impact in those easy victories. But against tough teams on the road, he's been a lot less productive. My point being, he hasn't shined brightest when the Dolphins needed him the most. If we are debating "most valuable" (which admittedly really isn't that big a factor of the actual voting), I am not really sure Hill has produced as the leaps and bound top WR when it's mattered the most.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yeah...I suspect he'll be cheated on the award because the stupid voters will look at the standings and pick the QB on the top team. As much as Jalen is getting poohed on right now I would be surprised to see him win it after feasting on some cupcakes.

I will push back a little here. No doubt Hill's numbers have been great (potentially record breaking) . . . but a lot of his production has come in blowouts. He's averaged 67/0.5 in the Dolphins 4 losses. He's been awesome in games decided by 14+ points . . . 145/1.2 in 6 blowouts. Similarly, those numbers came against a relatively easy slate of teams. Obviously, Hill had a huge impact in those easy victories. But against tough teams on the road, he's been a lot less productive. My point being, he hasn't shined brightest when the Dolphins needed him the most. If we are debating "most valuable" (which admittedly really isn't that big a factor of the actual voting), I am not really sure Hill has produced as the leaps and bound top WR when it's mattered the most.

I think point #1 here would be that those games are likely blowouts in part because Hill went off, rather than the other way around.

Point #2 is I think this is pretty normal. Brock Purdy averages 250yds passing and has 3 TDs and 5 INTs in the games they lost. He averages 310yds passing and has 22 TDs with 2 INTs in games that they won by 2+ scores.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think point #1 here would be that those games are likely blowouts in part because Hill went off, rather than the other way around.

Point #2 is I think this is pretty normal. Brock Purdy averages 250yds passing and has 3 TDs and 5 INTs in the games they lost. He averages 310yds passing and has 22 TDs with 2 INTs in games that they won by 2+ scores.

The difference is, Tyreek's biggest games have come against the likes of CAR, LAC, and NYG. Brock's biggest games have come against PHI, DAL, and JAC.

 

[BassNBrew]

Yeah...I suspect he'll be cheated on the award because the stupid voters will look at the standings and pick the QB on the top team. As much as Jalen is getting poohed on right now I would be surprised to see him win it after feasting on some cupcakes.

I will push back a little here. No doubt Hill's numbers have been great (potentially record breaking) . . . but a lot of his production has come in blowouts. He's averaged 67/0.5 in the Dolphins 4 losses. He's been awesome in games decided by 14+ points . . . 145/1.2 in 6 blowouts. Similarly, those numbers came against a relatively easy slate of teams. Obviously, Hill had a huge impact in those easy victories. But against tough teams on the road, he's been a lot less productive. My point being, he hasn't shined brightest when the Dolphins needed him the most. If we are debating "most valuable" (which admittedly really isn't that big a factor of the actual voting), I am not really sure Hill has produced as the leaps and bound top WR when it's mattered the most.

Enjoy the push back...returning the favor.

Dak has played 13 games. 50% of his TDs came in 4 games vs. Rams/NYG/Wash/Sea. His yardage in those four games 24% higher than his usually yardage output. Those teams ranks were 32, 28, 26, and 18.

Those blow out game wins for Hill came against defense 32, 30, 26, 8, 5, 4. Looks like he's an equal opportunity producer.

 

[BassNBrew]

My bad...I had total defense. Here's passing defense.

Hill

CAR 3
LAC 28
NYG 18

Brock

PHIL 28
DAL 5
JAX 31

DAK

LAR 20
PHIL 28
WASH 32
NYG 18
SEA 25

Both Brock and Dak are feasting on the worst passing defenses in the NFL.

 

[Anarchy99]

Both Brock and Dak are feasting on the worst passing defenses in the NFL.

Somewhat misleading. The reason why those teams are ranked so low in pass defense is due to the fact that they are almost always ahead and teams have no other alternative than to pass to try to get back in games. The reverse is true for a team like the Panthers. They are so bad that teams would be so far ahead that they run the ball extensively and don't need to pass and extend leads. That's where quality of opponent and team records also comes into play.

An example of overkill for Tyreek would be the Broncos game. Hill had one of his best games when his team scored 70 points and had 726 yards of offense. MIA is 2-4 in games with 251 passing yards or less. DAL is 5-2 in games with 253 passing yards or less and SFO is 4-1 in games with 250 or fewer passing yards. As has been discussed repeatedly (for better or for worse), wins and losses matter in MVP voting (as does record and performance against other top tier opponents).

Against teams currently seeded as playoff teams:
Hill: 75 yards, 0.5 TD per game (0-2 record)
Purdy: 259 yards, 2.6 TD, 0.4 INT (5-2 record)
Dak: 266 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (1-2 record)
Lamar: 241 yards, 1.2 TD, 0.6 INT, (50 yards, 1 TD rushing) (3-2 record)

Maybe that ends up making a difference, maybe it doesn't.

 

[crushedspirit]

Schedules should always be taken into consideration, especially in a close race like this where nobody really stands out from the crowd.

 

[travdogg]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

It was fascinating to watch MIA struggle to move the ball when Hill was out. Completely different offense.

Hill won't win the MVP but this should be a clear indication that he should.

Right now Dak is the favorite.

That's an oversimplification, I think. Miami was down 4 of their 5 starting OL as the game went on, in addition to Hill. Any offense is gonna be handicapped from that.

I think regardless of Hill's status, Miami is gonna struggle against the Jets defense this week, though obviously more if he's out too.

I do agree its Dak's to lose I think.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

It was fascinating to watch MIA struggle to move the ball when Hill was out. Completely different offense.

Hill won't win the MVP but this should be a clear indication that he should.

Right now Dak is the favorite.

That's an oversimplification, I think. Miami was down 4 of their 5 starting OL as the game went on, in addition to Hill. Any offense is gonna be handicapped from that.

I think regardless of Hill's status, Miami is gonna struggle against the Jets defense this week, though obviously more if he's out too.

I do agree its Dak's to lose I think.

Did those linemen come back later in the game when Hill came back and they scored two touchdowns?

 

[travdogg]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

It was fascinating to watch MIA struggle to move the ball when Hill was out. Completely different offense.

Hill won't win the MVP but this should be a clear indication that he should.

Right now Dak is the favorite.

That's an oversimplification, I think. Miami was down 4 of their 5 starting OL as the game went on, in addition to Hill. Any offense is gonna be handicapped from that.

I think regardless of Hill's status, Miami is gonna struggle against the Jets defense this week, though obviously more if he's out too.

I do agree its Dak's to lose I think.

Did those linemen come back later in the game when Hill came back and they scored two touchdowns?

I don't think Hill had anything to do with it. Unless you think he caused the Titans to lose 2 fumbles inside their own 12 yard line.

ETA: I'm really a little concerned Miami might not even win their division. Buffalo is 2 games back, plays Miami in week 18, and currently has the tiebreaker. With NYJ, Dal, Bal, Buf, its very possible Miami goes 1-3 during that stretch, and Buffalo goes 3-1 during the Dal, LAC, NE, Mia stretch.

If Buffalo wins the division, I wonder if Josh Allen makes a late MVP push.

 

[Shawnky]

Right now it's Dak IMO.

I'm obviously a big Purdy fan, but I don't think he will get many votes. It's amazing that he's playing well enough to be in the conversation, and I'd love him to win so I can cash out a longshot bet, but right now I'd give it to Dak.

If the 9ers are the 1seed, and the Cowboys are the 3, it goes to Purdy if both QBs continue doing what they are doing. IMO

Based on what data?

 

[FairWarning]

Hill out, Miami does nothing.

Hill in, Miami scores at will.

Clearly the MVP. I mean if you guys want to turn it into the QB on the team with the best record then have at it. Kupp proved you wrong two years ago and Hill will do the same this year.

It was fascinating to watch MIA struggle to move the ball when Hill was out. Completely different offense.

Hill won't win the MVP but this should be a clear indication that he should.

Right now Dak is the favorite.

That will change after Sunday unless he plays well and wins in Buffalo.

 

[ChicoCat]

Right now it's Dak IMO.

I'm obviously a big Purdy fan, but I don't think he will get many votes. It's amazing that he's playing well enough to be in the conversation, and I'd love him to win so I can cash out a longshot bet, but right now I'd give it to Dak.

PHI is still in control of their own destiny to win their division. If they do so, (and they should) how can we give Dak the award over a guy who finished first in the Conference (which I'm assuming SF will) when their numbers are very similar (and in some cases...better for Purdy)? I know you're a SF homer and might be trying not to jinx it.....but to me, a QB with great numbers on the best team in the Conference who beat the other candidate head to head deserves to win over a QB with great numbers who didn't even win his division.

 

[ChicoCat]

In the battle of intangibles....Purdy wins it by being Mr. Irrelevan. Dak loses it because he was sedated when he got a tattoo.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Both Brock and Dak are feasting on the worst passing defenses in the NFL.

MIA is 2-4 in games with 251 passing yards or less. DAL is 5-2 in games with 253 passing yards or less and SFO is 4-1 in games with 250 or fewer passing yards. As has been discussed repeatedly (for better or for worse), wins and losses matter in MVP voting (as does record and performance against other top tier opponents).

I actually think this kind of makes the opposite point. If Hill doesn't blow up and put the team on his shoulders, the Dolphins generally lose. If he has a bad day, they're cooked, and they can't win without him playing great. If Purdy or Dak have a bad day, the 49ers/Cowboys win anyway with their rushing attack and/or defense, so how much is them having a huge day the reason for them winning games?

 

[BassNBrew]

Both Brock and Dak are feasting on the worst passing defenses in the NFL.

MIA is 2-4 in games with 251 passing yards or less. DAL is 5-2 in games with 253 passing yards or less and SFO is 4-1 in games with 250 or fewer passing yards. As has been discussed repeatedly (for better or for worse), wins and losses matter in MVP voting (as does record and performance against other top tier opponents).

I actually think this kind of makes the opposite point. If Hill doesn't blow up and put the team on his shoulders, the Dolphins generally lose. If he has a bad day, they're cooked, and they can't win without him playing great. If Purdy or Dak have a bad day, the 49ers/Cowboys win anyway with their rushing attack and/or defense, so how much is them having a huge day the reason for them winning games?

Yeah...we can twist this anyway that suits us. Lose to the good teams and you just beat up on the cupcakes. Lose to the bad teams and you aren't any good if you lose to that Cupcake.

 

[Spin]

Both Brock and Dak are feasting on the worst passing defenses in the NFL.

MIA is 2-4 in games with 251 passing yards or less. DAL is 5-2 in games with 253 passing yards or less and SFO is 4-1 in games with 250 or fewer passing yards. As has been discussed repeatedly (for better or for worse), wins and losses matter in MVP voting (as does record and performance against other top tier opponents).

I actually think this kind of makes the opposite point. If Hill doesn't blow up and put the team on his shoulders, the Dolphins generally lose. If he has a bad day, they're cooked, and they can't win without him playing great. If Purdy or Dak have a bad day, the 49ers/Cowboys win anyway with their rushing attack and/or defense, so how much is them having a huge day the reason for them winning games?

This is an interesting point, so I decided to look it up for Purdy:

Date​	Opponent​	Score​	CMP​	ATT​	Yds​	CMP %	TD​	INT​	Passer Rating​	QBR​
Sun 12/10​	vsSEA​	28-16​	19​	27​	368​	70.4	2​	1​	122.1​	66.1​
Sun 12/3​	@PHI​	42-19​	19​	27​	314​	70.4	4​	0​	148.8​	81.6​
Thu 11/23​	@SEA​	31-13​	21​	30​	209​	70.0	1​	1​	86.7​	58.7​
Sun 11/19​	vsTB​	27-14​	21​	25​	333​	84	3​	0​	158.3​	81​
Sun 11/12​	@Jax​	34-3​	19​	26​	296​	73.1	3​	0​	148.9​	86.1​
Sun 10/29​	vsCIN​	31-17​	22​	31​	365​	71.0	1​	2​	94.2​	52.1​
Mon 10/23​	@MIN​	22-17​	21​	30​	272​	70.0	1​	2​	81.5​	73​
Sun 10/15​	@CLE​	19-17​	12​	27​	125​	44.4	1​	1​	55.3​	35.9​
Sun 10/8​	vsDAL​	42-10​	17​	24​	252​	70.8	4​	0​	144.4​	83​
Sun 10/1​	vsARI​	35-16​	20​	21​	283​	95.2	1​	0​	134.6​	97.1​
Thu 9/21​	vsNYG​	30-12​	25​	37​	310​	67.7	2​	0​	111.3​	65.3​
Sun 9/17​	@LAR​	30-23​	17​	25​	206​	68.0	0​	0​	93.1​	76.7​
Sun 9/10​	@PIT​	30-7​	19​	29​	220​	65.5	2​	0​	111.3​	93.7​

Purdys stats when looking at wins vs losses:

Outcome​	CMP​	ATT​	CMP %​	Yds​	Yds/Gm​	TD​	TD/Gm​	INT​	Int/Gm​	TD/INT Ratio​	Passer Rating​
Wins​	197​	271​	73%​	2791​	279.1​	22​	2.2​	2​	0.2​	11​	129.56​
Losses​	55​	88​	63%​	762​	254​	3​	1​	5​	1.67​	0.6​	77.94​

Maybe we can argue that 11/23 game @SEA he wasn't outworldly and they still won? But he definitely wasn't very good in the games he lost. Seems like for Purdy if he has a bad day, the team loses.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

so this is over now right

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Right now, imo, the Niners have number 1 and 2 in the mvp race. Could be Purdy or McCaffery. I don't have a strong preference on either one, but one of them should win.

 

[fred_1_15301]

So Purdy it is

 

[Ghost Rider]

Purdy is the favorite now per Vegas, but I will believe voters will give it to him when it actually happens.

 

[-OZ-]

How many 7th round draft picks have won the MVP during their rookie contract?

I’m guessing the number is less than 1.

 

[jobarules]

How many 7th round draft picks have won the MVP during their rookie contract?

I’m guessing the number is less than 1.

Does Kurt Warner count?

 

[Anarchy99]

McCaffrey was the guy the Fox halftime panel was suggesting should be the MVP this year (subject to change with more games still to play). Part of the argument was that he changed the fortunes of the offense for the Niners since they acquired him. They are 21-4 in the regular season since he got there. CMC is on pace for roughly 2200 YFS and 25 total TD. They also praised Purdy, but they discussed that guys have been getting wide open, and all Purdy had to do was get the ball to them with little pressure and no defender even near the receiver. They attributed that to having to worry about CMC (who knows how much validity there is to that).

Only 5 players have scored 25 times in a season and 3 of them won MVP (Tomlinson, Alexander, and Faulk) . . . the two that didn't were Holmes and Emmitt. Holmes was buried in the balloting. Peyton and McNair tied for first, Brady came in third, and Jamal Lewis came in 4th with 2K+ rushing yards. Smith came in 3rd in 1995 behind Favre and Rice in a pass crazy season.

The panel felt Prescott and Hurts lost some traction in the last 1-2 weeks. Lamar was said to also be in the mix (but didn't have the gawdy numbers), as was Allen (who had the numbers but not the record).

 

[-OZ-]

How many 7th round draft picks have won the MVP during their rookie contract?

I’m guessing the number is less than 1.

Does Kurt Warner count?

Was he a 7th round pick?
No. Also, he wasn’t on his first NFL contract (although this is perhaps overly technical)
I had forgotten that he was a Packer for a brief time.

 

[jobarules]

How many 7th round draft picks have won the MVP during their rookie contract?

I’m guessing the number is less than 1.

Does Kurt Warner count?

Was he a 7th round pick?
No.
I had forgotten that he was a Packer for a brief time.

I mean he was worse than a 7th round pick

 

[-OZ-]

How many 7th round draft picks have won the MVP during their rookie contract?

I’m guessing the number is less than 1.

Does Kurt Warner count?

Was he a 7th round pick?
No.
I had forgotten that he was a Packer for a brief time.

I mean he was worse than a 7th round pick

he also had 4 years after college.
But yes, Warner is the probably the best value player ever.

 

[ZWK]

A few top 10 QB leaderboards through wk11

EPA
110.8 Brock Purdy
101.5 Josh Allen
72.9 Dak Prescott
68.0 Justin Herbert
64.3 CJ Stroud
62.0 Patrick Mahomes
59.0 Tua Tagovailoa
58.0 Jalen Hurts
38.8 Kirk Cousins
34.7 Jared Goff

QBR
77.0 Brock Purdy
73.9 Dak Prescott
71.7 Justin Herbert
69.9 Josh Allen
69.4 Patrick Mahomes
64.4 Jalen Hurts
64.0 Jared Goff
63.1 Kirk Cousins
62.0 Lamar Jackson
61.7 Tua Tagovailoa

PFF Grade
89.4 Dak Prescott
88.6 Josh Allen
87.6 Lamar Jackson
87.2 Patrick Mahomes
86.9 Jared Goff
86.4 Tua Tagovailoa
86.1 Kirk Cousins
84.0 Trevor Lawrence
83.7 CJ Stroud
83.3 Matthew Stafford

DYAR
1203 Brock Purdy
1112 Josh Allen
975 CJ Stroud
918 Jared Goff
901 Tua Tagovailoa
809 Patrick Mahomes
754 Dak Prescott
716 Justin Herbert
682 Lamar Jackson
559 Kirk Cousins

ANY/A
9.1 Brock Purdy
8.0 Tua Tagovailoa
7.7 CJ Stroud
7.2 Kirk Cousins
7.1 Dak Prescott
7.0 Lamar Jackson
6.9 Jared Goff
6.8 Josh Allen
6.8 Justin Herbert
6.4 Russell Wilson

Brock Purdy leading everything except PFF grade, where he is not listed (14th). Josh Allen & Dak Prescott generally showing out best among the players who make all 5 lists, both with an average rank of 3.6. The current favorite in the betting odds, Jalen Hurts, only makes 2 of the 5 lists.

After week 11, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott had the strongest statistical seasons. That is still very true after week 13. Here is a comparison of those 3 plus Jalen Hurts through wk13.

Brock Purdy
1st in EPA (131.2)
1st in QBR (75.6)
12th in PFF Grade (83.6)
1st in DYAR (1380)
1st in ANY/A (9.1)
5th in WPA (2.7)
3.5 avg rank

Dak Prescott
3rd in EPA (103.3)
2nd in QBR (75.4)
1st in PFF Grade (92.2)
3rd in DYAR (1090)
4th in ANY/A (7.6)
1st in WPA (3.2)
2.3 avg rank

Josh Allen
2nd in EPA (124.3)
3rd in QBR (72.4)
2nd in PFF Grade (91.4)
2nd in DYAR (1223)
8th in ANY/A (6.8)
2nd in WPA (3.1)
3.2 avg rank

Jalen Hurts
7th in EPA (66.6)
8th in QBR (61.4)
13th in PFF Grade (82.2)
11th in DYAR (604)
13th in ANY/A (6.3)
6th in WPA (2.7)
9.7 avg rank

Allen obviously lags behind the others in team success, and Purdy has questions about more of his production being due to his teammates & offensive system (though that's already reflected here in his unimpressive PFF grade), so if the season was over my vote would be for Dak Prescott.

Updating after week 15, and adding one more QB to the comparison:

Brock Purdy
1st in EPA (159.3)
1st in QBR (76.0)
5th in PFF Grade (86.9)
1st in DYAR (1670)
1st in ANY/A (9.6)
1st in WPA (3.4)
1.7 avg rank

Dak Prescott
3rd in EPA (98.4)
2nd in QBR (72.7)
2nd in PFF Grade (90.6)
6th in DYAR (1093)
5th in ANY/A (7.1)
2nd in WPA (3.2)
3.3 avg rank

Josh Allen
2nd in EPA (124.4)
3rd in QBR (69.7)
1st in PFF Grade (91.3)
2nd in DYAR (1297)
10th in ANY/A (6.5)
3rd in WPA (3.2)
3.5 avg rank

Jalen Hurts
5th in EPA (73.8)
10th in QBR (59.9)
10th in PFF Grade (83.2)
11th in DYAR (731)
18th in ANY/A (6.0)
5th in WPA (2.7)
9.8 avg rank

Lamar Jackson
12th in EPA (33.8)
8th in QBR (60.8)
6th in PFF Grade (86.7)
12th in DYAR (703)
7th in ANY/A (6.7)
12th in WPA (1.6)
7.7 avg rank

At this point I'd favor Purdy as the top QB, with Prescott & Allen still in contention.

 

[Ghost Rider]

To have a realistic shot at winning, Lamar probably needs to ball out like mad Monday night against SF and the Ravens have to win the game. Doing that in a game on Christmas many will see could go a long way to giving him a solid shot.

The issue for Purdy and McCaffrey could be many voters going for one and not the other to where neither gets enough votes to win.

 

[UncleZen]

I tend to agree with Purdy. CMC should be the MVP.

 

[FarFromHome]

Dak lost. Hurts lost. Even the biggest Niners haters gotta admit Purdy is the leader. I got Lamar 2nd. If Ravens can somehow beat Niners then Miami it gets interesting.

 

[eighsse2]

Dak lost. Hurts lost. Even the biggest Niners haters gotta admit Purdy is the leader. I got Lamar 2nd. If Ravens can somehow beat Niners then Miami it gets interesting.

I just don't understand the "Dak lost. Hurts lost." reasoning. Purdy has lost 3 times. They've all lost.

 

[FarFromHome]

Dak lost. Hurts lost. Even the biggest Niners haters gotta admit Purdy is the leader. I got Lamar 2nd. If Ravens can somehow beat Niners then Miami it gets interesting.

I just don't understand the "Dak lost. Hurts lost." reasoning. Purdy has lost 3 times. They've all lost.

For me it's almost like choosing the college football playoffs. Way better to lose early then late. I believe if Dak won out he would have gotten the MVP. Just my opinion. It's not a coincidence that the top 2 winning teams in the league also have the top 2 leaders to win the award. I don't actually have a vote so it's all my opinion.

 

[travdogg]

Personally, I view record as mostly irrelevant for MVP, that's a best team stat, and I loathe judging individual players by wins. With that in mind, I'm leaning Josh Allen at the moment. I think he's the best player in the NFL, and now that the Bills suddenly look like the best team in the AFC, he might actually get some votes. Truthfully, I've thought Allen was the best player all year long, but figured he'd be close to ineligible without making the playoffs, but they seem likely now with LAC/NE/Mia left. That's 2-1 at worst.

One thing I'd factor in with Allen (and Hurts too I guess) is his rush TDs should carry more weight. If Allen had 37 passing TDs instead of 26, would he be a better MVP candidate? Why does it matter that they were rushing instead of passing, because for things like passer rating and efficiency stats, if his 11 rush TDs were passes, it would greatly increase those ratings.

I do wonder if the SF/Mia guys hurt one another a bit. Like Tua hurts Hill, and CMC hurts Purdy as one could vote for either. Buffalo doesn't really have that, and neither does Baltimore.

 

[FarFromHome]

Personally, I view record as mostly irrelevant for MVP, that's a best team stat, and I loathe judging individual players by wins. With that in mind, I'm leaning Josh Allen at the moment. I think he's the best player in the NFL, and now that the Bills suddenly look like the best team in the AFC, he might actually get some votes. Truthfully, I've thought Allen was the best player all year long, but figured he'd be close to ineligible without making the playoffs, but they seem likely now with LAC/NE/Mia left. That's 2-1 at worst.

One thing I'd factor in with Allen (and Hurts too I guess) is his rush TDs should carry more weight. If Allen had 37 passing TDs instead of 26, would he be a better MVP candidate? Why does it matter that they were rushing instead of passing, because for things like passer rating and efficiency stats, if his 11 rush TDs were passes, it would greatly increase those ratings.

I do wonder if the SF/Mia guys hurt one another a bit. Like Tua hurts Hill, and CMC hurts Purdy as one could vote for either. Buffalo doesn't really have that, and neither does Baltimore.

I personally agree with the point you made about teams record. Vegas doesn't, but I do.

 

[jobarules]

Personally, I view record as mostly irrelevant for MVP, that's a best team stat, and I loathe judging individual players by wins. With that in mind, I'm leaning Josh Allen at the moment. I think he's the best player in the NFL, and now that the Bills suddenly look like the best team in the AFC, he might actually get some votes. Truthfully, I've thought Allen was the best player all year long, but figured he'd be close to ineligible without making the playoffs, but they seem likely now with LAC/NE/Mia left. That's 2-1 at worst.

One thing I'd factor in with Allen (and Hurts too I guess) is his rush TDs should carry more weight. If Allen had 37 passing TDs instead of 26, would he be a better MVP candidate? Why does it matter that they were rushing instead of passing, because for things like passer rating and efficiency stats, if his 11 rush TDs were passes, it would greatly increase those ratings.

I do wonder if the SF/Mia guys hurt one another a bit. Like Tua hurts Hill, and CMC hurts Purdy as one could vote for either. Buffalo doesn't really have that, and neither does Baltimore.

Yep it should lean mostly towards stats. They've finally started voting like this in MLB.

 

[Wingnut]

Purdy and CMC share the award, 20 years after P Manning and McNair shared it for the 2003 season.

BOOM.

 

[travdogg]

Purdy and CMC share the award, 20 years after P Manning and McNair shared it for the 2003 season.

BOOM.

Probably 0% chance teammates would share it, especially on a team like SF that is very good, but not like 2007 Patriots good.

Ironically, speaking of SF, the year teammates maybe should have shared it was 1987 when Montana/Rice split the vote and Elway won it, despite clearly not deserving it. That was probably the year a WR deserved it most in history.

If history repeats itself, I could see Purdy/CMC splitting the vote, and someone else getting it.

 

[Soulfly3]

it's actually laughable at this point for anyone to say Purdy is more important than CMC.

I don't care about "he's a QB"... Most Valuable Player.

It isn't even remotely close.

 

[fred_1_15301]

it's actually laughable at this point for anyone to say Purdy is more important than CMC.

I don't care about "he's a QB"... Most Valuable Player.

It isn't even remotely close.

I don’t know that too many people are saying he’s more valuable to the team than CMC. People are saying that he’s likely to win it. But honestly I have no problem with CMC winning it either.

 

[Deamon]

it's actually laughable at this point for anyone to say Purdy is more important than CMC.

I don't care about "he's a QB"... Most Valuable Player.

It isn't even remotely close.

Sure you're right, but that's not what the voters go by, so who really cares about trying to define "valuable" and arguing in circles about which non qb is more valuable to his team.

Purdy likely takes the award, he's rightfully the front runner at this point in time.

 

[Soulfly3]

Purdy likely takes the award,

Which is why the NFL MVP award is basically a joke. Call it the most important QB award if that's all it is.

He isn't even top 10 most important players to his team.. Or top 20 probably.

 

[Soulfly3]

Seriously though.... If I went through every team in the NFL, I can find 1 or more players on almost every team more important than Purdy is to SF.

Where was the Jimmy G MVP chatter?

 

[Soulfly3]

Jimmy 2019 - 69%comp / 3978yds / 27tds / 13int / 102 rat

Purdy 2023 - 70%comp / 3796yds / 29tds / 7int / 119rat

Now, as a gentle reminder... Jimmy had Tevin Coleman at RB... Not CMC... Tevin! Rookie Deebo. No Aiyuk.

Nah.... Miss me with this Purdy BS.... I was twice as impressed with Jimmy as I am Purdy. Just simple facts