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2024-2025 NCAA College Basketball Thread - Huskers take the Crown! Also Florida did something. (1 Viewer)

Gonzaga moves up to No. 1 in KenPom rankings​

Story by Cole Forsman

From opening night of the college basketball season, the Gonzaga men’s basketball team has established a case for being considered the No. 1 team in the country.

Since their 38-point blowout over Baylor at the Spokane Arena, the Bulldogs (5-0) have beaten Arizona State at home, decimated a good UMass-Lowell squad by 59 points, and went into the Viejas Arena to come away with an impressive win over San Diego State. All before Feast Week officially tips off. No other program in the country boasts a resume quite like the Zags’ do through the first three weeks of the season.

The human polls might not agree with Gonzaga’s case, but the computers do, especially after Wednesday’s 43-point drubbing of Long Beach State. Following their fifth straight victory to start the season, KenPom.com moved the Bulldogs up from No. 3 to the No. 1 spot in its daily rankings of all 364 Division-I teams. The Zags dethroned Auburn, now at No. 2, followed by Houston, Duke and UConn in the top five.

At 93.2 points per game, it’s no surprise Gonzaga also ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Part of that also has to do with taking especially good care of the basketball. The Bulldogs’ 11.2% turnover rate is the second-lowest in the nation and is on pace to be the lowest in the Mark Few era. It’s an even more incredible figure when considering they’ve faced three opponents with top-70-rated defenses to start the season, in addition to playing at an incredible tempo on offense.

Five players average 11 or more points and three put up 14 or more per game for the Zags. Senior forward Graham Ike leads with 14.6 points per game, followed by sixth-year guard Khalif Battle (14.4) and redshirt sophomore Braden Huff (14.0). Senior guard Ryan Nembhard (12.2 points) is tied with Purdue’s Braden Smith for No. 1 in the country in total assists (47). Nolan Hickman adds 11.2 points on .512/.435/1.000 shooting splits.

Defensively, Gonzaga is No. 18 in the country in efficiency, which would be the best ranking since it finished the 2021-21 season at No. 10. That was also the last time the Bulldogs held the top overall spot in KenPom’s rankings. In fact, that squad featuring Drew Timme, Chet Holmgren, Julian Strawther and Andrew Nembhard never relinquished the No. 1 ranking, from the preseason edition all the way through the NCAA Tournament.

The 2024-25 squad doesn't have the luxury of leaning on a 7-foot-tall rim protector to clean up any mistakes, but in totality, there haven't been many missteps for the Zags on that end of the floor thus far. Their opponents have particularly struggled from deep. After limiting the Beach to 2-of-20 from deep on Wednesday, Gonzaga allows the seventh-lowest 3-point field goal percentage in the country (22.7%).

"I think we had really, really, really good week on the defensive end, and then obviously the offense has continued to just be kind of coming along," Few said following the Long Beach State game. "But we had a great, great week defensively. That was two good halves there. We had a little five-minute letdown there at the end of the second or into the first half. But our numbers are getting better, and the guys are playing with great effort, playing with great physicality and against this team, we played pretty clean too."

KenPom joined EvanMiya.com as the two notable college basketball websites that see eye-to-eye on where the Zags stand among their competitors. Similarly, EvanMiya grades Gonzaga as the No. 1 overall team with the top-rated offense and a top-10 level defense (No. 9).
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It's going to be the same story with the Zags this year. In March, people will forget that they trounced Baylor and whatever else they do in non-con. They will probably move to number one in the nation on polls too once teams ahead of them start to take losses in their tougher conferences while the Zags blow everyone out in the WCC by 30-40+.

Then people will say they are overrated and will underperform in the tournament because they play in a weak conference. This of course ignores the fact that by far most Zags teams have outperformed their seed in the tournament, and they are widely considered one of the more successful tournament teams of the last 20 years by this metric.
 
Scoresman said:
It's going to be the same story with the Zags this year. In March, people will forget that they trounced Baylor and whatever else they do in non-con. They will probably move to number one in the nation on polls too once teams ahead of them start to take losses in their tougher conferences while the Zags blow everyone out in the WCC by 30-40+.

Then people will say they are overrated and will underperform in the tournament because they play in a weak conference. This of course ignores the fact that by far most Zags teams have outperformed their seed in the tournament, and they are widely considered one of the more successful tournament teams of the last 20 years by this metric.
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I think the issue with Gonzaga (at least for me) is not that I dont think they're good. They have a top 5-10 roster (coached by an elite coach) basically every year.

My issue is that by the time February rolls around....the REALLY analytics-focused pundits (real and/or twitter) start claiming that Gonzaga is the CLEAR best team (favored by 5+ points over EVERYONE) in the field just because KenPom says so. And in most years, that seems VERY silly to me and exposes what I think are some weaknesses in some of the poular analytics.

Obviously they have to schedule a VERY Strong non-conference to prove themselves. And they generally perform really well there. But then they basically go into hybernation for 3 months beating up Jesuit schools that (other than St. Mary's and one other random WCC School every year) dont have a single player that could make their roster. Hard to do that, beat a 16 and an 8/9 and be ready for a top 15 team from a power conference. Its a challenging dynamic. I'll be excited to see them deal with the night-in night-game pressure (and fatigue) that comes with a move to the big 12 in a couple of years.

As for the "they outperform their seed" argument......How many times has that really happened in the past 10 tournaments?

12-13- 1 seed, lost in the 2nd round (UNDER)
13-14- 8 seed, beat a 9, got thumped by a 1 in the 2nd round (GOT WHERE THEY SHOULD HAVE)
14-15- 2 seed, lost to a 1 in the elite 8 (GOT WHERE THEY SHOULD HAVE)
15-16- Down year, 11 seed, Got the sweet 16 and lost to a 10 (OVER)
16-17- 1 seed. Got to the title game. Should have won (TITLE GAME is NEVER EXPECTED....so you count this an an OVER)
17- 18- 4 seed. Got to the sweet 16. Lost to a 9 seed. (TECHINCALLY GOT WHERE THEIR SEED INDICATED THEY SHOULD, BUT OBVIOUSLY DISSAPOINTED TO LOSE TO A 9)
18-19- 1 seed. Got to the elite 8 and lost to the 3 (TECHNICALLY UNDER)
19-20 (no tournament)
20-21 - 1 seed. Undefeated. Obviously got thumped in the finals, but still got there. Can't dock them for losing to a better team (MET)
21-22- 1 seed. Lost to a 4 in the sweet 16 (UNDER)
22-23- 3 seed. Made the elite 8 and lost to a lower seed (of course, we now know that UCONN seed was obviously under-seeded). Technically outperformed even though they didnt have to play a 2 seed in the sweet 16 (OVER)
23-24- 5 seed. Made the elite 8. Technically outperformed even though 4 seed Kansas was a shell by that point (OVER)

So in 10 years, we have 3 UNDER-performances, 3 AS- EXPECTED and then 4 OVERS. So that's slightly above average relative to expectations. (Not sure how it compares to other top teams. Maybe its better....I dont know)

Their streak of 9 straight sweet 16's is obviously very impressive. I think they're REALLY good this year. BLITZED Baylor, but it was opening night and Baylor has basically an all-new team (albeit a very talented one).....So SMALL grain of salt there. Obviously they're gonna get 2 really good tests with UK and UCONN. If they split those games, make the finals/win Atlantis (which would likely include a couple of really nice wins if they get Zona in the final) and basically run the table in the league, they'll likely be a 1 again.
 
TLEF316 said:
Scoresman said:
It's going to be the same story with the Zags this year. In March, people will forget that they trounced Baylor and whatever else they do in non-con. They will probably move to number one in the nation on polls too once teams ahead of them start to take losses in their tougher conferences while the Zags blow everyone out in the WCC by 30-40+.

Then people will say they are overrated and will underperform in the tournament because they play in a weak conference. This of course ignores the fact that by far most Zags teams have outperformed their seed in the tournament, and they are widely considered one of the more successful tournament teams of the last 20 years by this metric.
Click to expand...

I think the issue with Gonzaga (at least for me) is not that I dont think they're good. They have a top 5-10 roster (coached by an elite coach) basically every year.

My issue is that by the time February rolls around....the REALLY analytics-focused pundits (real and/or twitter) start claiming that Gonzaga is the CLEAR best team (favored by 5+ points over EVERYONE) in the field just because KenPom says so. And in most years, that seems VERY silly to me and exposes what I think are some weaknesses in some of the poular analytics.

Obviously they have to schedule a VERY Strong non-conference to prove themselves. And they generally perform really well there. But then they basically go into hybernation for 3 months beating up Jesuit schools that (other than St. Mary's and one other random WCC School every year) dont have a single player that could make their roster. Hard to do that, beat a 16 and an 8/9 and be ready for a top 15 team from a power conference. Its a challenging dynamic. I'll be excited to see them deal with the night-in night-game pressure (and fatigue) that comes with a move to the big 12 in a couple of years.

As for the "they outperform their seed" argument......How many times has that really happened in the past 10 tournaments?

12-13- 1 seed, lost in the 2nd round (UNDER)
13-14- 8 seed, beat a 9, got thumped by a 1 in the 2nd round (GOT WHERE THEY SHOULD HAVE)
14-15- 2 seed, lost to a 1 in the elite 8 (GOT WHERE THEY SHOULD HAVE)
15-16- Down year, 11 seed, Got the sweet 16 and lost to a 10 (OVER)
16-17- 1 seed. Got to the title game. Should have won (TITLE GAME is NEVER EXPECTED....so you count this an an OVER)
17- 18- 4 seed. Got to the sweet 16. Lost to a 9 seed. (TECHINCALLY GOT WHERE THEIR SEED INDICATED THEY SHOULD, BUT OBVIOUSLY DISSAPOINTED TO LOSE TO A 9)
18-19- 1 seed. Got to the elite 8 and lost to the 3 (TECHNICALLY UNDER)
19-20 (no tournament)
20-21 - 1 seed. Undefeated. Obviously got thumped in the finals, but still got there. Can't dock them for losing to a better team (MET)
21-22- 1 seed. Lost to a 4 in the sweet 16 (UNDER)
22-23- 3 seed. Made the elite 8 and lost to a lower seed (of course, we now know that UCONN seed was obviously under-seeded). Technically outperformed even though they didnt have to play a 2 seed in the sweet 16 (OVER)
23-24- 5 seed. Made the elite 8. Technically outperformed even though 4 seed Kansas was a shell by that point (OVER)

So in 10 years, we have 3 UNDER-performances, 3 AS- EXPECTED and then 4 OVERS. So that's slightly above average relative to expectations. (Not sure how it compares to other top teams. Maybe its better....I dont know)

Their streak of 9 straight sweet 16's is obviously very impressive. I think they're REALLY good this year. BLITZED Baylor, but it was opening night and Baylor has basically an all-new team (albeit a very talented one).....So SMALL grain of salt there. Obviously they're gonna get 2 really good tests with UK and UCONN. If they split those games, make the finals/win Atlantis (which would likely include a couple of really nice wins if they get Zona in the final) and basically run the table in the league, they'll likely be a 1 again.
Click to expand...

Your metrics are a bit off there. A 1 seed does not have to make the finals to meet seed expectation, so 20-21 should be over for example. Not sure how you calculated the others. Seed expectation is based on historical performance of each seed and the average for one seeds is somewhere between elite 8 and final 4 if I remember correctly.

The Zags definitely have more overs than unders when it comes to expected tournament wins and that does not really support the argument that the WCC softens them at all.

I do think playing the WCC inflates their ratings both on kenpom and the polls, however.
 
Duke self destructing at the end for the 2nd time in a big game. Like this team a lot though. More depth than I can remember when. Good balance throughout the lineup. Flagg and kneuppel look fantastic for freshman. They're just gonna get better.
 
Auburn looking awesome. So much versatility. Best team I've watched so far this season. Still have a ton of tests upcoming before SEC play.

Alabama another that's only going to get better and better. Oates has scheduled another helicious non-conference early schedule.

Loving these terrific pre-conference games. Maui field was great
 
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Oh my, in going up high for an out-of-bounds loose ball, Cheeks lands directly on the scorekeeper's face. You will see it on replays somewhere, or a meme.

Funny ****. He twists his body mid-air and lands butt-first, right on what must be a 300 pound man, who couldn't budge an inch, *** right in his face...all the way to ground. Dude was flat on his back, and took it like a champ. :lmao:
 
SEC looks to be top heavy this year with Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky and throw in Florida who looked good in their tournament. Wasn't expecting Kentucky to come out so hot. Auburn already with some big wins looks tough to handle. I'm liking the tough early tests mixed inwith the cupcake early schedule.

Uconn going 0-3 made me happier than it should especially while watching Hurley and his usual meltdowns.
 
The Big East was struggling a bit so far this early season, but comes away with 2 big wins last night as Villanova and Providence easily handle Cincinnati and BYU, respectively.
 
Great slate today. Pitt at Mississippi State. Baylor at UConn. Alabama at UNC. Marquette at Iowa State. Auburn at Duke. A few others.
 
Nice win last night for the Maize and Blue at Wisconsin. The two 7 footers were awesome. Dusty May may have something at Michigan this year.
 
Missouri beats "#1" Kansas. Almost blew it. Were up 24 with 14 minutes left.

Kansas should be getting a lot more out of their million for AJ Storr. Complete non-factor.
 
Heading over to Matt Knight Arena in a bit for Oregon v UCLA. Obviously a good start for the Ducks being undefeated with wins over TAMU, SD State, and Alabama. But they also barely beat Portland and had to come from behind in Corvallis a couple weeks ago.

Altman has embraced the portal for years, well ahead of the current era of NIL and constant turnover, so his teams usually don't come together (if they ever do) until February, particularly on the defensive end. I expect plenty of stumbles still but good to see them a bit ahead of schedule this year. I'd guess best case this is a Sweet 16 level team, but we'll see.
 
SFBayDuck said:
Heading over to Matt Knight Arena in a bit for Oregon v UCLA. Obviously a good start for the Ducks being undefeated with wins over TAMU, SD State, and Alabama. But they also barely beat Portland and had to come from behind in Corvallis a couple weeks ago.

Altman has embraced the portal for years, well ahead of the current era of NIL and constant turnover, so his teams usually don't come together (if they ever do) until February, particularly on the defensive end. I expect plenty of stumbles still but good to see them a bit ahead of schedule this year. I'd guess best case this is a Sweet 16 level team, but we'll see.
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:rant: :wall::cry:🏀:cry:

Lost on a banked 25 footer with 0.4 left after Shelstad hits a dagger to give us the lead with like 11 seconds left. Dammit.
 
My uncle Jim Larranaga retired today.

It's really been wonderful reading all the stories and quotes from former players that sincerely loved him.
Something I said and Mike Kriskfhdhdnksski said others are saying today- he's maybe the nicest coach ever.

Many years ago, he coached at UVA and took them to the final four in 1984. He was Terry Holland's top assistant and would turn down jobs year after year because everyone said he was due for a big time job. He couldn't wait anymore, felt like it was just talk and went to Bowling Green. (Who? Exactly) But he got them into the NCAAs, Antonio Daniels #5 pick and then onto George Mason. Cinderella team and onto Miami. A supposed big name program but they never did this n that and along the way many would say "they never accomplished that?" so it was a bit odd. The final four was his big moment and I was very happy for him.

What if he stayed at Virginia when Holland went to the NCAA committee? Three of his assistants would get ACC jobs and an NBA job. Ya never know...

He loves the Coral Gables area and said he plans to continue to work with Miami however he can help.

His son Jay was a top NBA assistant also supposedly going to get a job but it never came so he left the Celtics to join the Clippers.

Jim is on the list of finalists for the Naismith hall of fame along with his high school coach Jack Curran.
 
Bri said:
My uncle Jim Larranaga retired today.

It's really been wonderful reading all the stories and quotes from former players that sincerely loved him.
Something I said and Mike Kriskfhdhdnksski said others are saying today- he's maybe the nicest coach ever.

Many years ago, he coached at UVA and took them to the final four in 1984. He was Terry Holland's top assistant and would turn down jobs year after year because everyone said he was due for a big time job. He couldn't wait anymore, felt like it was just talk and went to Bowling Green. (Who? Exactly) But he got them into the NCAAs, Antonio Daniels #5 pick and then onto George Mason. Cinderella team and onto Miami. A supposed big name program but they never did this n that and along the way many would say "they never accomplished that?" so it was a bit odd. The final four was his big moment and I was very happy for him.

What if he stayed at Virginia when Holland went to the NCAA committee? Three of his assistants would get ACC jobs and an NBA job. Ya never know...

He loves the Coral Gables area and said he plans to continue to work with Miami however he can help.

His son Jay was a top NBA assistant also supposedly going to get a job but it never came so he left the Celtics to join the Clippers.

Jim is on the list of finalists for the Naismith hall of fame along with his high school coach Jack Curran.
Click to expand...
Great coach,
 
  • Thanks
Reactions: Bri
Cincinnati extremely frustrating to watch. Fell down by 19 today Arizona, crawled all the way back, then just made stupid decisions. Shooting like 15% from 3 and 40% on free throws is enough to make me pull my hair out. Will drop out of top 25 and at this point I'm just hoping for a .500+ Big XII record and somehow sneaking into the tournament.
 
SpurrierisisGod said:
TennesseeJed said:
TennesseeJed said:
Kentucky will be a fun watch this season. Sneaky good with veterans instead of lottery picks.
Click to expand...
Not so sneaky anymore - just good.
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Man, missed free throws and #4 hitting 7/8 on 3s killed UF. 1st real test all year. Not ashamed of a 6 point loss at Rupp. Giving up 106 on the other hand...
Good back and forth game though.
Click to expand...
SEC conference play is going to be a tough gauntlet for all the teams this year.
 
Uruk-Hai said:
Bri said:
My uncle Jim Larranaga retired today.

It's really been wonderful reading all the stories and quotes from former players that sincerely loved him.
Something I said and Mike Kriskfhdhdnksski said others are saying today- he's maybe the nicest coach ever.

Many years ago, he coached at UVA and took them to the final four in 1984. He was Terry Holland's top assistant and would turn down jobs year after year because everyone said he was due for a big time job. He couldn't wait anymore, felt like it was just talk and went to Bowling Green. (Who? Exactly) But he got them into the NCAAs, Antonio Daniels #5 pick and then onto George Mason. Cinderella team and onto Miami. A supposed big name program but they never did this n that and along the way many would say "they never accomplished that?" so it was a bit odd. The final four was his big moment and I was very happy for him.

What if he stayed at Virginia when Holland went to the NCAA committee? Three of his assistants would get ACC jobs and an NBA job. Ya never know...

He loves the Coral Gables area and said he plans to continue to work with Miami however he can help.

His son Jay was a top NBA assistant also supposedly going to get a job but it never came so he left the Celtics to join the Clippers.

Jim is on the list of finalists for the Naismith hall of fame along with his high school coach Jack Curran.
Click to expand...
Great coach,
Click to expand...
Agreed, grew up watching his teams in the 90's, but unfortunately BG never made the NCAA's. Tournament caliber, but never won the conference tournament and was snubbed for an at large twice.
 
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Reactions: Bri
MAC_32 said:
Uruk-Hai said:
Bri said:
My uncle Jim Larranaga retired today.

It's really been wonderful reading all the stories and quotes from former players that sincerely loved him.
Something I said and Mike Kriskfhdhdnksski said others are saying today- he's maybe the nicest coach ever.

Many years ago, he coached at UVA and took them to the final four in 1984. He was Terry Holland's top assistant and would turn down jobs year after year because everyone said he was due for a big time job. He couldn't wait anymore, felt like it was just talk and went to Bowling Green. (Who? Exactly) But he got them into the NCAAs, Antonio Daniels #5 pick and then onto George Mason. Cinderella team and onto Miami. A supposed big name program but they never did this n that and along the way many would say "they never accomplished that?" so it was a bit odd. The final four was his big moment and I was very happy for him.

What if he stayed at Virginia when Holland went to the NCAA committee? Three of his assistants would get ACC jobs and an NBA job. Ya never know...

He loves the Coral Gables area and said he plans to continue to work with Miami however he can help.

His son Jay was a top NBA assistant also supposedly going to get a job but it never came so he left the Celtics to join the Clippers.

Jim is on the list of finalists for the Naismith hall of fame along with his high school coach Jack Curran.
Click to expand...
Great coach,
Click to expand...
Agreed, grew up watching his teams in the 90's, but unfortunately BG never made the NCAA's. Tournament caliber, but never won the conference tournament and was snubbed for an at large twice.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was wrong on that. Some conversations with relatives have corrected me lately. I don't know how. I remember the Daniels brothers accident and him being drafted fifth and Jay shooting three's and Tony G as an opponent...mind gets the best of me sometimes I guess.

One of my relatives pointed out he's had three players be in NFL camps. I thought that was kind of a neat anecdote
 
Bri said:
MAC_32 said:
Uruk-Hai said:
Bri said:
My uncle Jim Larranaga retired today.

It's really been wonderful reading all the stories and quotes from former players that sincerely loved him.
Something I said and Mike Kriskfhdhdnksski said others are saying today- he's maybe the nicest coach ever.

Many years ago, he coached at UVA and took them to the final four in 1984. He was Terry Holland's top assistant and would turn down jobs year after year because everyone said he was due for a big time job. He couldn't wait anymore, felt like it was just talk and went to Bowling Green. (Who? Exactly) But he got them into the NCAAs, Antonio Daniels #5 pick and then onto George Mason. Cinderella team and onto Miami. A supposed big name program but they never did this n that and along the way many would say "they never accomplished that?" so it was a bit odd. The final four was his big moment and I was very happy for him.

What if he stayed at Virginia when Holland went to the NCAA committee? Three of his assistants would get ACC jobs and an NBA job. Ya never know...

He loves the Coral Gables area and said he plans to continue to work with Miami however he can help.

His son Jay was a top NBA assistant also supposedly going to get a job but it never came so he left the Celtics to join the Clippers.

Jim is on the list of finalists for the Naismith hall of fame along with his high school coach Jack Curran.
Click to expand...
Great coach,
Click to expand...
Agreed, grew up watching his teams in the 90's, but unfortunately BG never made the NCAA's. Tournament caliber, but never won the conference tournament and was snubbed for an at large twice.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was wrong on that. Some conversations with relatives have corrected me lately. I don't know how. I remember the Daniels brothers accident and him being drafted fifth and Jay shooting three's and Tony G as an opponent...mind gets the best of me sometimes I guess.

One of my relatives pointed out he's had three players be in NFL camps. I thought that was kind of a neat anecdote
Click to expand...
Still irked that 96 team was left out. Daniels breakout, Stacy emerging (NBA talent, just too short), and Jay draining 3 after 3 after 3. One too many bad losses, but watching them game in and game out they were at large quality and I can't be convinced otherwise.
 
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Pitt not ready for prime time.

Tennessee got worked by Florida and falls from the ranks of the unbeaten. Kentucky loses to Georgia.
 
I was at Marquette v G'Town last night and my main takeaway is that the Hoyas are back and will make some noise this year in the Big East. The final score is not at all indicative of the flow of this game. This freshman big man Thomas Sorber is going to be a good one if he sticks around for more than a year. I don't know #### about basketball but will say I was at a Marquette v UConn game 2 years ago and posted similar comments in here about a backup center named Donovan Clingan. Marquette is as expected. They will challenge for the Big East, get a high seed and crash out in the second round.
 
10 of top 25 went down today

6 of them lost at home.

I'm still shocked Kansas is ranked as high as they are. Equally as shocked how they've got absolutely nothing this season from AJ Storr for close to $1m NIL

The SEC is so ridiculously loaded.
 
Craig_MiamiFL said:
10 of top 25 went down today

6 of them lost at home.

I'm still shocked Kansas is ranked as high as they are. Equally as shocked how they've got absolutely nothing this season from AJ Storr for close to $1m NIL

The SEC is so ridiculously loaded.
Click to expand...
It was carnage.

Some of the ranked home teams got smoked, too - wasn't like they lost at the buzzer. UCONN put the hammer down on Marquette (who I thought was the best team in the nation) in Wisconsin.
 
After road trips to Fayetteville and Austin, Bama finishes with games vs #1, 20, 12, 14, 8, 5…and 1 again. 😅
 
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