2024-25 Playoff Survivor (2 Viewers)

[Crippler]

Feels so strange picking bottom of (deep dynasty!) roster guys as starters in the 8th and 9th rounds. Never did one of these before. It's.....different

yet, these late rounders matter because inevitably a major player will go out early and some WR will have few targets and catch a long TD pass. Having the flex player always causes these playoff drafts to have strikingly different strategies.

Right now, four teams have doubled up at TE and yet one team still has not picked one. Some teams waited late on WR and have only one (or none) projected to score double figures. Similarly four teams waited on RB and even with two are projected at less than 14 points for both RBs.

After all my road hours, I am sleeping poorly so I used consensus projections from FBG and take this with a grain (or two) of salt because none of the teams yet have a scorer at each mandated position and nine still need two.

Top projected is Crippler with 106 and the lowest projected team is at 89. if you are only looking at the top eight, the current spread is right at ten points. Very closely grouped teams, and again still have several zero positions.

And would like my team more if Bass would stop sniping me. Wish waited to get Love but was afraid of his injury and would hate to have to take Willis also. Though really surprised not bottom 4 team instead. My RBs suck. My WR3 is awful. Come on Stone Smart(love the name).

 

[-OZ-]

Come on Stone Smart(love the name).

Speaking of sniping!

 

[Stinkin Ref]

REF:

10 hole kind of sucked

Jordan Love

Kyren Williams
Ray Davis

Mike Evans
Cooper Kupp
Rashod Bateman
Mike Williams

Dawson Knox
Josh Oliver

Cameron Dicker

DST TBD

and one more pick TBD

my outcome will be determined by Kupp...was a pivotal pick for me as I passed on the last of decent TE's and rolled the dice.....gut says Kupp could have an epic bounce back game....hopefully one of my TE's score....

 

[renesauz]

doing this completely off my head without any projections (or rather, just using the MFL ADP as a VERY rough guide). Those could be a misleading in a one week scenario, with keepers and such for the following. Just too much to consider to overthink it and a higher luck variance

 

[-OZ-]

Q Darnold - I just hope he bounces back from last week

RB 2 players who should score
J Cook - went with a team I fully expect to win, Cook should score a TD or two along with close to 100 yards
Ekeler - he’s been injured but if Quinn is smart he’ll rely on his veterans. Probably won’t do much but maybe a few receptions and 50 yards?

WR - I think this is a decent group. Not exceptional.
Agholor - hoping for a deep pass or two.
Metchie - some desperation here but he’s probably their 2 right now
Reed - mostly a “needs based” pick - as in the packers will need him to do something
D smith - clear #2 but I think we see 3/85 or so.

TE - waited far too long here. But didn’t like the value at any point.
Musgrave - love needs receivers, maybe
Culp - looked good a couple weeks ago, maybe get lucky.

K
Reichard - targeted him in both my dynasty leagues, I’m as big a fan of his as we can be of a kicker

D
Rams - figured if Darnold is off maybe I get a pick 6 or two

 

[rzrback77]

UPDATE thru pick 11.7

top guy remains Crippler and he is projected at 114.6, Bass, Bro1nco and Ref all still have one scoring position to fill, and Mr. Irrelevant still needs both DST and PK, so he is lagging behind a bit.

Adding projections for final picks, rough estimates, Mr. Irrelevant should move up to really close group of five packed in around 105 and right now Renesauz looks to be lowest projection at 101.

 

[-OZ-]

UPDATE thru pick 11.7

top guy remains Crippler and he is projected at 114.6, Bass, Bro1nco and Ref all still have one scoring position to fill, and Mr. Irrelevant still needs both DST and PK, so he is lagging behind a bit.

Adding projections for final picks, rough estimates, Mr. Irrelevant should move up to really close group of five packed in around 105 and right now Renesauz looks to be lowest projection at 101.

If we’re all within 13 points it should be a fun weekend!

 

[BassNBrew]

REF:

10 hole kind of sucked

Jordan Love

Kyren Williams
Ray Davis

Mike Evans
Cooper Kupp
Rashod Bateman
Mike Williams

Dawson Knox
Josh Oliver

Cameron Dicker

DST TBD

and one more pick TBD

my outcome will be determined by Kupp...was a pivotal pick for me as I passed on the last of decent TE's and rolled the dice.....gut says Kupp could have an epic bounce back game....hopefully one of my TE's score....

I struggled between Kupp and Mc!illan. I think Kupp surprises and vaults you into the next round. I just couldn’t risk two Rams with the need for a decent keeper.

 

[rzrback77]

OK, up through 12.2 and if @Stinkin Ref would select his DST at 12.3, we could have the full complement of projections for all teams counting only the FBG Consensus projections of everyone's top ten projected starters. I am going to proceed giving both Ref and Bro1nco the same 7.2 score, one of them will add 0.4 points due to them getting the slightly higher projected DST score.

1. Bass 119.1
2. Crippler 114.6
3. rzrback77 113.0
4. Old Mil 110.8
5. Bro1nco 108.8
6. St. Ref 108.8
7. Mr. Irrelevant 108.3
8. Duckboy 107.0
9. Aaron 105.8
10. OZ 105.5
11. Clash 102.0
12. Renesauz 100.9

Good Luck everybody! And remember to get your FBG Subscription Playoff Contest entry in ASAP. I have less of a feel for this contest than any I have participated in over the past twenty-five years.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

sorry boys I was reffing tonight and did the best I could trying to pick one between games.....was in BFE in eastern CO with shotty service/internet....texted Bass my DST pick but he must not have got it...sorry for the delay...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

took a quick look at the FBG contest.....started getting a headache....will try to hunker down for a half hour tomorrow and try to figure that **** out....

 

[-OZ-]

OK, up through 12.2 and if @Stinkin Ref would select his DST at 12.3, we could have the full complement of projections for all teams counting only the FBG Consensus projections of everyone's top ten projected starters. I am going to proceed giving both Ref and Bro1nco the same 7.2 score, one of them will add 0.4 points due to them getting the slightly higher projected DST score.

1. Bass 119.1
2. Crippler 114.6
3. rzrback77 113.0
4. Old Mil 110.8
5. Bro1nco 108.8
6. St. Ref 108.8
7. Mr. Irrelevant 108.3
8. Duckboy 107.0
9. Aaron 105.8
10. OZ 105.5
11. Clash 102.0
12. Renesauz 100.9

Good Luck everybody! And remember to get your FBG Subscription Playoff Contest entry in ASAP. I have less of a feel for this contest than any I have participated in over the past twenty-five years.

I’m looking forward to being about 40 points out heading into MNF

 

[rzrback77]

i was expecting Lamar or Allen at the 6 but will settle for obviously the , Barkley and JJ weren’t going to be there.

@-OZ- to you.

If you had told me a year ago that I’d take Darnold here, I’d think you had lost it.

OK, up through 12.2 and if @Stinkin Ref would select his DST at 12.3, we could have the full complement of projections for all teams counting only the FBG Consensus projections of everyone's top ten projected starters. I am going to proceed giving both Ref and Bro1nco the same 7.2 score, one of them will add 0.4 points due to them getting the slightly higher projected DST score.

1. Bass 119.1
2. Crippler 114.6
3. rzrback77 113.0
4. Old Mil 110.8
5. Bro1nco 108.8
6. St. Ref 108.8
7. Mr. Irrelevant 108.3
8. Duckboy 107.0
9. Aaron 105.8
10. OZ 105.5
11. Clash 102.0
12. Renesauz 100.9

Good Luck everybody! And remember to get your FBG Subscription Playoff Contest entry in ASAP. I have less of a feel for this contest than any I have participated in over the past twenty-five years.

I’m looking forward to being about 40 points out heading into MNF

Very interesting progression of comments from @-OZ- ...

1. Round one - hoping for Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen with his first pick
2. Round three - if you told me a year ago that I'd take Darnold here, I'd think you had lost it
3. Near end of draft - sarcasm meter high - I'm looking forward to being 40 pts out heading into MNF - And depending on Rams DST and Darnold

The biggest surprises to me of this NFL season at QB were Bo Nix and Darnold. After watching Nix at Auburn, I was very surprised at his success at Oregon and then shocked at the early draft pick by the Broncos, but he has greatly surpassed my expectations. Darnold, OTOH I liked a lot out of college and was surprised at his poor NFL performance for his first six seasons, yes it has been that long, but KOC seems to be a master at QB development (and doesn't hurt to have JJ, Addison & Hock). Yet, I remain suspicious of these two approaching the Wild Card weekend.

Best of luck OZ, perhaps Darnold will throw 300 yds and 3 TDs and also two pick sixes and help out your DST as well.

 

[-OZ-]

sarcasm meter high - I

No sarcasm. Reichard can put up 10, 5-10 from the rams, leaving 25 or so for Darnold. 300/2 gets him there.

 

[rzrback77]

forgot about the idiot kicker, LOL

 

[-OZ-]

forgot about the idiot kicker, LOL

That’s my idiot kicker!

Fwiw, I’m pretty sure I’ll be trailing throughout the weekend. Curious if anyone else is more back heavy.

Wild Card Round Games​

Saturday January 11, 2025
Chargers @ Houston 4:30pm
- Metchie
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore 8:00pm
- Agholor
Sunday January 12, 2025
Denver @ Buffalo 1:00pm
- Cook, adkins
Green Bay @ Philadelphia 4:30pm
- Reed, smith, musgrave
Washington @ Tampa Bay 8:00pm
- ler, culp
Monday January 13, 2025
Minnesota @ Rams 8:00pm
- Darnold, reichard, Rams

 

[rzrback77]

team rzrback77

QB Daniels Sun night

RB - Barkley Sun pm and A Jones MNF

WR - hodge podge max - Vele Sunday early, D Brown Sat early, D Davis Sunday early, V Jefferson Sat night and Heath Sunday pm

TE - Schultz Saturday early and Higbee MNF

PK - Karty MNF

DST - Vikings MNF

so, three going MNF

 

[BassNBrew]

@-OZ-

10 of my 12 and in the last 3 games.

 

[BassNBrew]

Rzr. Final projections?

 

[BassNBrew]

PICK OVR FRANCHISE PLAYER DATE/TIME ELAPSED
1.08 8 Bassnbrew Nacua, Puka LAR WR Mon Jan 6 3:53:57 p.m. ET 2025 37 minutes

Really wanted Cook, Brown or JJ here. Probably should have taken Andrew’s.

2.05 17 Bassnbrew Hurts, Jalen PHI QB Tue Jan 7 8:21:42 a.m. ET 2025 8 hours

May regret not taking Smith here but needed to address posting a big week to get a decent draft position next week.

3.08 32 Bassnbrew McMillan, Jalen TBB WR Tue Jan 7 9:09:26 p.m. ET 2025 1 hour

Probably should have selected Skakir or Bateman. Decided to try and slough Otto’s to the next round. Between Otto’s and McMillan one should hit


4.05 41 Bassnbrew Otton, Cade TBB TE (Q) Wed Jan 8 8:59:31 a.m. ET 2025 19 minutes

Thank you

5.08 56 Bassnbrew McLaughlin, Jaleel DEN RB Wed Jan 8 5:08:08 p.m. ET 2025 9 minutes

Had to get two and it’s already bleak

6.05 65 Bassnbrew Wicks, Dontayvion GBP WR Thu Jan 9 10:36:08 a.m. ET 2025

Pumped that he fell
-
7.08 80 Bassnbrew Akers, Cam MIN RB (Q) Thu Jan 9 6:31:57 p.m. ET 2025 -

Looked better than Jones to me last week

8.05 89 Bassnbrew Wallace, Tylan BAL WR Thu Jan 9 8:08:09 p.m. ET 2025 -

Seemed like a good idea at the time

9.08 104 Bassnbrew Commanders, Washington WAS Def Fri Jan 10 9:47:46 a.m. ET 2025

Hoping baker does baker things
-
10.05 113 Bassnbrew Dotson, Jahan PHI WR Fri Jan 10 12:57:31 p.m. ET 2025 30 minutes

Just in case aj has issues

11.08 128 Bassnbrew Gonzalez, Zane WAS PK Fri Jan 10 8:14:54 p.m. ET 2025 1 hour

Should be a high scoring game in warm climate

12.05 137 Bassnbrew Melton, Bo GBP WR Sat Jan 11 1:20:32 a.m. ET 2025

Remember him impressing last year

 

[-OZ-]

Dang mcconkey!

 

[BassNBrew]

Rats. I didn’t catch any of t
Hat

 

[rzrback77]

Updated - Still using consensus projections from Footballguys, but replacing projections with actual scoring from the two Saturday games.

1. Old Mil 130.5 - largely behind McConkey
2. Bro1nco 117.4 - Derrick Henry was the man
3. Bass 116.6 - not much change
4. Mr. Irrelevant 116.4 - big score from Texans DST, but zero from Q. Johnson
5. rzrback77 115.2 - Jefferson TD increase, but Schultz who caught two passes early underperformed
6. Duckboy 110.4 - Wilson Pickett, err Pickens helped, but Andrews pulled a Schultz
7. Crippler 108.7 - Collins boomed, but Friermuth and Ravens DST did not
8. St. Ref 107.9 - not much change
9. OZ 104.5 - not much change
10. Clash 103.6 - Mixon and Fairbairn were good, but Steelers DST lost the gain
11. Renesauz 97.1 - slight drop as Tucker had no FG opps
12. Aaron 89.2 - L Jax a bit under and both RBs Dobbins and Warren, as well as Boswell were well under with Stover being a little but not enough surprise

 

[BassNBrew]

Nice start @OldMilwaukee

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Nice start @OldMilwaukee

Picking from the 12 hole I thought I had little chance, and didn't the draft to seriously.

Maybe that's my new strategy going forward.

We'll see how it turns out.

Hey......how about reversing the draft order in the next draft? ect, ect.

 

[renesauz]

The original projections were crazy tight...the updated ones after Saturday still are.
Is it keep 2 every week, or does that change if you survive WC weekend?

 

[-OZ-]

Hey......how about reversing the draft order in the next draft? ect, ect.

Would an auction just be impossible? The clock couldn’t reset but 12 hours per player, eBay style.

 

[renesauz]

Hey......how about reversing the draft order in the next draft? ect, ect.

Would an auction just be impossible? The clock couldn’t reset but 12 hours per player, eBay style.

MFL actually does decent with auctions

 

[rzrback77]

After the Sunday Games, the projections were wrong, there is quite the spread after all

1. Old Mil 143.6
2. Duckboy 126.4
3. Clash 103.0 + Dem Robinson + Rivers - 0.5
4. Mr. Irrelevant 95.7 + Hockenson
5. Bro1ncos 93.85 + Atwell
6. rzrback77 82.3 + A. Jones + Higbee + Karty + Vikes DST
7. Aaron Rudnicki 78.45
8. BassNBrew 68.35 + P. Nacua -3.1 + Akers
9. Stinkin Ref 66.0 + K. Williams + Kupp + Oliver or Parkinson - 4.7
10. Crippler 64.7 + J. Jefferson
11. OZ 54.7 + Darnold + Reichard + Rams DST
12. Renesauz 27.5 + Stafford + J. Nailor

Just my opinion, but it looks like the top six are safe and it will be an uphill battle for Renesauz to climb into the top eight, but 7 - 11 could be fighting it out for the last two spots. Outside shot at two or three passing Bro1ncos, but looks safe to me.

 

[renesauz]

After the Sunday Games, the projections were wrong, there is quite the spread after all

1. Old Mil 143.6
2. Duckboy 126.4
3. Clash 103.0 + Dem Robinson + Rivers - 0.5
4. Mr. Irrelevant 95.7 + Hockenson
5. Bro1ncos 93.85 + Atwell
6. rzrback77 82.3 + A. Jones + Higbee + Karty + Vikes DST
7. Aaron Rudnicki 78.45
8. BassNBrew 68.35 + P. Nacua -3.1 + Akers
9. Stinkin Ref 66.0 + K. Williams + Kupp + Oliver or Parkinson - 4.7
10. Crippler 64.7 + J. Jefferson
11. OZ 54.7 + Darnold + Reichard + Rams DST
12. Renesauz 27.5 + Stafford + J. Nailor

Just my opinion, but it looks like the top six are safe and it will be an uphill battle for Renesauz to climb into the top eight, but 7 - 11 could be fighting it out for the last two spots. Outside shot at two or three passing Bro1ncos, but looks safe to me.

I still have Addison too. Not dead yet. One catch for ten yards from my #1 pick was brutal

 

[rzrback77]

Was too weary last night and obviously erred with @renesauz rundown. This morning, after Bible Study, I plugged in all of the actual scores and kept the consensus projections for MNF and the PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS are as follows:

1. Old Mil 143.6
2. Duckboy 126.4
3. rzrback77 120.0
4. Mr. Irrelevant 109.8
5. Clash 109.3
6. OZ 98.2
7. Bro1nco 97.9
8. Stinkin Ref 94.8
9. BassNBrew 91.9
10. Crippler 86.0
11. Aaron Rudnicki 78.5
12. Renesauz 69.9

Several of us will be watching closely to see where the results fall and of course, all eyes will be focused to the end if the break point is looking like either BassNBrew of Stinkin Ref are to advance over the other

 

[rzrback77]

And looking at the Post Season FBG Contest, rzrback77 still has three players going tonight, but CURRENTLY ranks 3,234 out of 3,296 and with the group of same six players, my team is 9th out of nine. That is amazingly bad. And also I will post two zeros next round as I had Herbert and McConkey next week. McConkey this week matched my three players that have already posted scores, Nix, Love and Mayfield.

 

[-OZ-]

And looking at the Post Season FBG Contest, rzrback77 still has three players going tonight, but CURRENTLY ranks 3,234 out of 3,296 and with the group of same six players, my team is 9th out of nine. That is amazingly bad. And also I will post two zeros next round as I had Herbert and McConkey next week. McConkey this week matched my three players that have already posted scores, Nix, Love and Mayfield.

I’m 29/50 among my “same top 6”.
Lost Herbert for next week.
Currently 2139th with Stafford and Puka remaining.
I didn’t expect Evans to outscore Baker, stroud and nix.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I had a writeup prepped for my team but didn't get a chance to finish and post it before Saturday kick. Obviously wouldn't make much sense to do so now, but the Cliff's Notes version would be:

• #11 is the nut low draft slot in this format - the top talent drops off amazingly quickly, you're always reaching because no one falls 20 picks, and you can't even count on stacking a QB-WR2 or QB-TE to embrace variance because the team at the turn can snipe the other half from you
• Thought I would regret buying high on a third-tier talent WR fresh off an out-of-nowhere career game (nailed that one!)
• Expected Javonte to be my X-factor for making it through, as someone who's recently become his team's lead receiving back (not so much!)
• Hated that so much of my first-round fate was tied to the Texans but thought it put me in much better position than having it tied to the Broncos or Steelers ("much better" was maybe a reach, but I'll take the W here)

I didn't like my team much on balance and thought it was a toss-up I'd survive the first weekend. Frankly, I'm only in a position to finish top-4 due to a pretty low-probability runout (big HOU win, lots of unders, lots of teams spreading the ball around in the pass game), and the Bucs costing me my Bucky keeper by throwing away that game last night is gonna leave a mark regardless. Probably need a big Hock output and a Vikes win to stay in contention past next weekend.

BOL to everyone the rest of the way.