(continues from previous post)
2018
Winner: Donald (45 first-place votes)
Best safety: Chicago Bears’ Eddie Jackson
The freakiest year in a freaky career, Donald racked up what would end up a career-best 20.5 sacks and a league-leading 106 pressures.
It easily could have been unanimous, despite a really good season for Khalil Mack. In his first season with Chicago, the edge-rushing linebacker scored 12.5 sacks, six forced fumbles and an interception. That was good enough to pull five of the 50 votes away from Donald.
As you would expect, Donald was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded defender that year. Mack finished seventh. No. 2? That distinction belonged to Mack’s Chicago teammate, Jackson, who had a breakout performance in his second season.
A fourth-round draft pick in 2017, Jackson snagged six interceptions, returning two for touchdowns, while also forcing a pair of fumbles.
2017
Winner: Donald (23 first-place votes)
Best safety: Minnesota’s Harrison Smith
Donald’s first of three DPOY awards, he fended off a stiff challenge from Jacksonville’s Calais Campbell, who drew 17 votes after recording a career-best 14.5 sacks for the AFC South-winning Jaguars.
Donald had fewer sacks, but generated significantly more pressure. And even though it’s not how it’s supposed to work, he might have got some residual love for his All-Pro performances the previous two seasons.
In total, eight players received a vote for the award in 2017. Minnesota defensive backs Xavier Rhodes and Smith were among that group, each showing up on a single ballot.
Smith, a six-time Pro Bowler, earned his only first-team All-Pro selection for this campaign. He finished with 78 tackles (seven for a loss), five interceptions and 12 pass defenses, resulting in a passer rating of 22.0 (!) when the ball was thrown in his direction.
Like much of his career, Smith was barely asked to rush the passer, but when he did, he was impactful, recording 10 pressures and 1.5 sacks on 29 blitzes.
2016
Winner: Raiders outside linebacker Khalil Mack (18 first-place votes)
Best safety: New York Giants’ Landon Collins
In the closest balloting of the past decade, Mack bested Denver’s Von Miller by a single vote. Mack barely cracked the top 10 with 11.0 sacks, but he paced the league with 96 QB pressures and 20 tackles for loss. He also finished second with five forced fumbles, which has always been one of his calling cards.
Two safeties earned votes, led by Collins, who was starting a stretch of three consecutive Pro Bowl-caliber campaigns. Without a doubt, 2016 was his best season. He racked up 125 tackles (100 solo and nine for a loss), 4.0 sacks and five interceptions.
That was good enough for nine votes, the best showing for a safety since Troy Polamalu won the award in 2010.
2015
Winner: Houston Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt (37 first-place votes)
Best safety: Arizona Cardinals’ Tyrann Mathieu
Watt earned his second consecutive award, and third in four years, leading the league with 17.5 sacks and 29.5 tackles for a loss. Donald made a dent in the balloting, earning seven votes with 11.0 sacks and 79 pressures, but he’d have to wait a couple more years to break through.
Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman split the remaining six votes after the team’s 15-1 season.
When looking at the safety position that year, some might argue Mathieu was more of a nickelback, lining up in the slot the majority of his reps. Still, his versatility and production were undeniable. He finished with 89 tackles (11 for a loss), five interceptions and 17 pass defenses. And despite his 5-foot-9, 190-pound frame, he was stellar in run support.
His efforts earned him first-team All-Pro honors at safety with a league-best 31 votes.
2014
Winner: Watt (unanimous, 50 first-place votes)
Best safety: Detroit’s Glover Quin
In the only unanimous balloting since the award’s 1971 inception, Watt’s 20.5 sacks, 29 tackles for loss and 119 quarterback pressures were deemed untouchable by voters. It’s difficult to argue, although a little surprising given Kansas City’s Justin Houston fell a half-sack shy of the league record that season.
Like Simmons in 2019, it’s a shame Detroit’s Glover Quin wasn’t given proper recognition as a first-team All-Pro after leading the league with seven interceptions.
To be fair, Earl Thomas and Eric Weddle each had excellent seasons, with the latter offering far more versatility and run-stopping contributions than Quin and Thomas. But if we get a hindsight vote, the turnovers are a separator. Thomas and Weddle each had just one interception in 2014. The Seattle star did close the gap somewhat by forcing four fumbles to Quin's zero.
Back to this season
In nine games, Branch has registered 57 tackles (three for a loss), four interceptions, 13 pass defenses and a forced fumble. That puts him on pace for 101 tackles (five for a loss), seven interceptions, 23 pass defenses and two forced fumbles.
Those are incredible numbers, rivaling some of the best seasons by a safety in the best 10 years. And, frankly, it’s better than Polamalu’s stat line when eeked by Clay Matthews for the award in 2010. The Steelers standout had 63 tackles (six for a loss), seven interceptions and 11 PBUs that year.
But Polamalu had a couple things working in his favor. First and foremost, name recognition. He was one of the NFL's most marketable players on one of the league’s most popular franchises, having earned five Pro Bowl and four All-Pro selections coming into that season. Double birds in Green Bay aside, Branch is about as quiet and unassuming as they come off the field. It's a factor impossible to overlook.
Secondly, there was a lack of competition that season from defensive linemen. Matthews had just 13.5 sacks, while Polamalu's teammate, James Harrison, finished third with 10.5 sacks and two interceptions.
The latter argument is where Branch's case strengthens. This year's sack leaders, Trey Hendrickson and Dexter Lawrence, play for teams on the outside of the playoff picture.
Meanwhile, the betting favor, T.J. Watt, is lagging behind his typical pace with just 7.5 sacks through 10 games. He does make up for that a bit by leading the league with four forced fumbles.
Still, if none of the brand names such as Watt or Garrett surge down the stretch, and Branch can maintain his current pace, maybe a “Heisman moment” late in the year can thrust him to the front of the conversation. A pick-six against San Francisco in Week 17 to lock up the NFC’s top seed might do the trick.
That’s a lot of words to tell you it’s a long shot. Recent history tells us that, repeatedly. If it’s going to happen, a lot of things need to break just right. And even then, it still might not be enough.
Chris Lindstrom - 96.4
FRANK RAGNOW - 94.0
KEVIN ZEITLER - 93.5
Zero Sacks Allowed
