I will address the cap briefly but by and large Miami only has a decision on a couple players, one of them Albert Wilson will surely get a pink slip. He is set to make close to $11M and Miami can pick up almost $10M by cutting him so if you can live with that, you get a cap number quickly of about $102-$103M that Miami would have to spend.
Think in terms of Over and Under about 10% of the cap number, we could say $200M for a round figure but I think it’s more now and going up a lot every year it seems. Teams are supposed to spend at least 89% of that figure or about $180M, and that means Miami will have almost the most to spend in free agency. I want to be clear, I do not think Miami should be spending big dollars in free agency, it has never really worked out here with few exceptions.
There is a lot to cover but I would like to start by going thru the positions and who might be on the roster come Week 1, 2020. I’m going to cover the draft as well. I would hope and pray Miami does not trade up to get a QB and give away all their picks. They have a chance to load up 6+ in the first 70-80 selections, that should be enough to make a major impact up the middle of this defense and the middle of that offense and across the Lines.
Easier to start on Defense and work back around to the Offense.
DE- Charles Harris continues to look like a bust. Taco Charlton started 5 games, had 5 sacks. He was a 1st round pick and I think more time in Flores system and I’m eager to see what he can do in camp next year. Ledbetter and Avery Moss should be on their way out along with Harris eventually.
Dante Fowler-Soon to be Free Agent. I am bringing him up because he wants to get paid and he had a terrific run in Los Angeles, they cannot afford to retain him and he might want to go to Atlanta to see his old college coach but they are not in great financial shape and Miami can outbid anyone they want. I would be OK if they could get a guy like this in free agency, there hard to find even drafting high. Miami is slowly putting together a secondary of playmakers and will add to it thru the draft, they need to find a pass rush and bring the heat.
DT-Wilkins had a rough rookie year IMHO, he will have to make advances this year. Davon Godchaux continues to look like a gem in the 5th round where he was taken. He will be in the last year of his rookie deal, Miami needs to decide what they want to do with him. He’s solid but he’s not incredible, maybe use him as a potential trade bait to move up or down, etc...if they are not going to extend him.
The Phins still need some major talent injected into their DLine and I expect them to select more of them with their first 6-7 picks, maybe turning them into more so they can overhaul this because nobody I have mentioned already on the team is really screaming All Pro here.
A Fowler-Charlton combo coming off the corners though and you can start to see some upside. Also, Miami might be able to find one more in their many draft picks, you get a step forward from Wiikins in the middle and suddenly this unit isn’t the worst in football any longer. The reason I am going deep on the DLine is that Miami actually has some decent LB at the moment although none of them are really Pro Bowl level either.
LB-Jerome Baker started 16 games for the Miami Dolphins last year. He was solid, might have had the most tackles on the team, 2 FF, 1 Int, 2 Sacks, he was fairly productive. If he were the 3rd best LB we would be better but he’s about the best Miami has. McMillan started 12 games and he didn’t force a fumble, make a sack or make many TFLs and since this is his last year of his rookie deal, I don’t see him long term with the Phins. And he may just play this year and then move on, it happens in the NFL but I don’t think Miami should be extending McMillan long term. He did OK coming off injury in 2018 but seemed to regress last year.
The other guy is Vince Biegel who was very productive including 59 tackles, an Interception and a team leading 13 hits on the opposing team’s Quaterback so they need to think about keeping this guy. I think he might be a RFA in 2020 but he rounds out that trio to roll with for one more season and maybe bring in an athletic versatile LB from the draft that can push for one of these 3 positions but otherwise they need to overhaul all this and it won't happen in 2020, I’d look to the DL and start pouring in the concrete over there 1st.
CB-Xavien Howard was arrested and then I read charges were dismissed. Not sure if he still has to meet with Goodell or not but hopefully no more of this. Miami is paying him top 5 money basically at CB, maybe Top 1 not sure. This guy has to be able to take away half the field and be feared, in general I don’t think QBs view him as a pushover that’s for sure.
Eric Rowe is signed thru 2022, looks like Miami feels they have their starting 2 Corners or ⅔ of a starting Trio of DBs when you count the Slot. I think Miami will be able to find an impact DB at the top of the draft if they desire. But they did that with Fitz a couple years ago and it blew up in their face however you want to put it. Rowe seems to fit well in their system, I’d like Miami to have a trio of quality DBs in their Corner Slots. Big hitting Safeties are fading due to the rules, it’s better to have the best Corners and then have a way to bring the heat. The combo will create turnovers and short fields for the offense.
Safety-Reshad Jones is set to hit the cap at $15.5M and will cost well over $10M to just flat out cut. Now I want to say that I wanted to trade Jones a long time ago before Miami shelled out Eric Berry like money for this guy and everyone got mad at me but looking back I was right. That said he is still capable of making impact plays. It seems like last year they held him back a lot and asked him not to complain and just take the money.
Miami does need or will need a Free Safety and Strong Safety eventually. Bobby McCain is part of the current secondary but he’s too small for Safety IMO.
In closing I would approach free agency trying to hit a Home Run at DE, Clowney did not want to come to Miami. Fowler is from St Pete and went to Univ of Florida, maybe he’d enjoy coming back to his home state and the tax break too. I think Miami needs to look for more LB help thru the draft and also another impact DL, they need help in that front 7. At DB they have some good pieces, what would a Jeff Okudah look like opposite Howard with Rowe in the slot, McCain as a DB4-Hybrid and Jones at Safety over the top, that’s got some pop to it. Everything I am suggesting is totally doable with the salary cap and all they have to spend.
Let’s roll over to the offense, save QB for last.
WR: Looks solid right now with Parker locked up for a few years with a 4 yr/$30M deal, only $4.6 against the cap this season. He is going to be on the team for the next 3 years, there’s no doubt and they are getting a bargain if Parker can come anywhere close to his 1200/9TD breakout season. Preston Williams was looking like a hidden gem but ended up missing the entire 2nd half of the season. Allen Hurns is on the roster and looks to have the inside track as one of the back up wideouts. He was signed to a 2 year extension this past November so MIami fully expects to use him. Jakeem Grant is likely to take up a spot and you quickly see there might be two spots up for grabs at best. I don’t see Miami drafting a WR early in this draft despite it being deep. I could see them getting one though if the right guy fell and he could push for a WR2 or slot role right away.
TE: I’m not sold on Mike Gesicki but some really like him. He was a 2nd Round pick in 2018, they will need to figure out if he is in the long term plans. If he is they could extend him as early as next off season. I don’t see a need to sign a big free agent but I would look in the draft if something falls and you can develop a “Pair” to deploy as weapons for Tua or whoever they might be drafting at QB, we’ll get into that soon.
RB: They are a prime candidate to take a RB with one of their 4 picks in the first 39 or whatever it is. They need an infusion and I could see them sign the right free agent but they shouldn’t be going after guys that are wanting North of $10M a season. I see where D.Freeman could be available and that might be worth a look since his signing bonus is already finished, you would owe him $8M a season for maybe 2-3 years, might be worth it without breaking the bank and then draft someone in the 2nd or 3rd...Miami needs 2-3 quality RBs so they don’t get Fitz or whoever killed back there.
OL-I don’t see a future for Davenport or Webb, J’Marcus Webb starting at Tackle is a joke, he’s old and wasn’t ever really that good for Chicago...he was drafted back in 2010, get out of here. Miami needs TWO Tackles to build around and I do believe they will try and fill one of them through the draft. $Jack Conklin$ of Tennessee Titans might become a free agent and that would be a terrific Right Tackle for Miami that will help when they draft a stud RB in the late 1st early 2nd to run behind him.
RG/LG: I don’t know that I really believe in Jesse Davis and Michael Dieter but they are locked in right now as the starting interior linemen. I think if Miami can get some help at RT in free agency and LT thru the draft that these two will see their game elevate. Miami doesn’t need to concern themselves with OG in the draft, not this year when they have so many needs. They could also use a starting Center, Kilgore is old and ineffective IMO.
QB: Fitz is locked up thru 2021 I think. If Tua falls to Miami at No 5 and they don’t have to trade up to get him then go for it. But I am not going to be happy at all if they trade their other 1st round picks to get one guy. They need a lot of help and have a lot of pressing needs. There are going to be free agent QBs walking the streets.
What if Tua were to go at No 3 to Detroit or whoever trades up NOT named Miami? Awesome!!! We can take Jeff Okudah at Corner and make a sick 1-2 with him and Xavien Howard, it’s that simple. Or we could take the LB/S hybrid from Clemson named Simmons. Then there is the Offensive Tackle from Georgia, Andrew Thomas which Miami needs but they’ve drafted Tackles high before and it hasn’t meant “Franchise”.
Miami can use the No 5 pick to make a big impact and still get a QB at No 18, I am a fan of Jordan Love and I would love Miami to get an OL assembled and A.Thomas-LT, J.Conklin-RT, Davis/Dieter LG/RG, and a Center to be found later and you have something that can protect and help Love while he learns BEHIND Fitzpatrick for perhaps his entire rookie campaign. Miami does not lose any of their draft picks and still have one more in the 1st. I think Miami can still grab Swift at No 26 and if not then they can find another prospect perhaps in the 2nd or 3rd.
1.05 OT or DB
1.18 QB-Love
1.26 RB-Swift
2.07 EDGE-Terrell Lewis(Alabama) or Edge-Marlon Davidson(Auburn)
2.24 C-Tyler Biadasz or C-Cesar Ruiz, they need a good one to anchor the OL.
3.06 S-Kyle Dugger
Compensatory for RT-James left for Denver. So to be clear, Miami sits on 6 of the 1st 70 selections in a deep 2020 Draft.
I’m adding a QB, RB, LT, Speed Edge guy, Strong Center, all of those need to be starters for this team and not misses like Harris was in 2018.
If they trade up for Tua it will cost a fortune and they will lose out on so many other guys that can help them. I have heard Tua compared a little to Drew Brees and that’s going to make Phins fans cringe because we could have signed Brees and opted not to back when Nick Saban was coaching here. If Tua falls to Miami at No 5 and they want to take him then so be it but do not trade away all these picks when you have a chance to load up on young talent.
Miami could also trade back at No 5 but I’ll wait to weigh in on that closer to the draft.
If anyone wants to add some players I quite possibly overlooked or failed to mention, please add them to the discussion.
