2024 Rookie Thoughts (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I got out of the dynasty game after the 2022 season, but for old time's sake, I'll dive into the rookie class and see what stands out to me.

Full disclosure: I watch very little football these days. These are just my rapid fire thoughts based on highlights.

I'll start out with the RBs. WRs and TEs will follow later this week. If I still have energy after that, I might watch some QB tape.

Note that these are not rankings. I'm simply going through the players based on draft order and giving my thoughts. Green means I think the player was good value at his selection while red means I think he was a questionable pick. If there's no color then it's a neutral/moderate position.

RUNNING BACKS

RB Jonathon Brooks, Panthers - Considering that Carolina spent a 2nd rounder on him AFTER he tore his ACL, I'm mildly underwhelmed. To me he looks like the B+ version of Joe Mixon. Good speed and agility, but not elite. Medium power. Not a stiff on the 2nd level, but not a flashy cutter either. A jack-of-all-trades without elite traits. The tools are there to potentially become an NFL starter, but I don't know if he justifies the RB1 price tag or the ~1 year wait to get back to full health. I'm likely to fade him at his ADP.

RB Trey Benson, Cardinals - I skew a little negative on this one. Benson has effective initial footwork and a nice burst, but does not play to his timed speed. He's an inefficient second level runner. More sprinter than cutter. He wants to get north-south and just go, but struggles to evade in the open field. He reminds me a lot of TJ Yeldon, who had some intriguing qualities but couldn't quite put it together. Given the premium I put on agility and quickness, this isn't the back for me.

RB Blake Corum, Rams - One of the few players in this class who I'm already very familiar with. I looked at him hard for my devy draft a couple years ago and came away impressed. I'm still relatively optimistic about his game. SLIPPERY and sudden. Elusive at every level of the field. Compact frame with good lower body strength. Elusive and powerful is a combination that usually works well in the NFL, which bodes nicely for Corum. The downside here is the lack of elite juice. Corum evokes comparisons to Ray Rice in body type and play style, but Ray cranked a 4.4 in the 40 while Corum doesn't have those same wheels. He has modest long speed. Let's say he's 80% Ray Rice and 20% Quizz Rodgers. What does that equate to at the pro level? I'm not sure. Look for him to push Kyren Williams and potentially emerge as a productive grinder here. The lack of top burst dissuades me from labeling him a can't-miss guy, and he also has a lot of tread off the tire with the high workload and injury from his Michigan days.

RB MarShawn Lloyd, Packers - Strong frame. Very active runner. High turnover. Legs are always moving. Agile, with sneaky vertical speed. In general he defaults to bouncing everything outside, but he does seem to possess the traits to run inside effectively. I see a high ceiling here. Is it too bullish to make an Alvin Kamara comparison? There's a similarity in terms of body type, play style, college career (both were transfers), and even landing on a team with an incumbent Alabama starter (Jacobs/Ingram). Lloyd is a little over-aged for a rookie and the presence of Jacobs blocks his short-term utility, but I think Green Bay got quality value here with the 88th pick. Potential long-term starter.

RB Jaylen Wright, Dolphins - Another sprinter type. Vertically explosive, but very straight-line with limited lateral movement. Add in suspect lower body strength and it's hard to see a route to sustained success. Interior running is a big question mark. This is a species of RB that I usually feel comfortable fading.

RB Bucky Irving, Buccaneers - Evokes comparisons to reasonably successful NFL players like Gio Bernard and Kyren Williams. Not totally dissimilar to Corum either. Sudden runner with nice agility and elusiveness. I like him as a football player, but he runs with less power than Corum and also lacks a second gear. You get the sense that he's probably destined for a committee role, lacking obvious high end FF upside.

RB Will Shipley, Eagles - Competitive runner with a noticeable burst and good versatility. Speed is above average. He's not a stiff, but his cuts and lateral movement can be sloppy. He's lighter than you'd want him to be at his height, and while he runs hard, he's not naturally powerful. Add it all up and he's probably a role player in the NFL instead of a long-term every down guy. Likely has some roster value with a slim chance at a Fred Jackson type of upside, but I lean towards a committee back career.

RB Ray Davis, Bills - The comparison that immediately came to mind was former Cal/Broncos RB CJ Anderson, who had some success in the NFL. Like Anderson, Davis has a compact frame with surprising footwork and suddenness. He has the burst to get the edge, the quickness to evade through the middle, and the power to run through arm tackles. I can envision him working himself into a starting position at some point. Don't go crazy, but he's well worth a shot at his ADP. In terms of negatives, his speed is just average and he's very over-aged.

RB Isaac Guerendo, 49ers - 6 year college player who is a bit of a mystery after handling a low volume of carries in his career. Actually drafted slightly ahead of Braelon Allen despite losing carries to him for a few seasons at Wisconsin. Looks a bit like a poor man's Ryan Mathews. Solid combination of size and mobility. Not exceptionally explosive, but mobile enough to handle KR duties in college as a 220 pound player. May have a bit of latent upside after being underutilized at the NCAA level, but seems destined for backup duty with some special teams value.

RB Braelon Allen, Jets - A poor man's Jamal Lewis. Plus frame with above average power. North-south bulldozer. Almost over-sized. Heavy-footed and a bit of a slow starter. A "thunder" option off the bench with possible spot starter potential. I don't think he's exceptional enough to be a long-term answer as a lead back.

 

[EBF]

RB Audric Estime, Broncos - A Robert Turbin type. Top-heavy with straight-line athleticism, but limited cutting ability. A big window runner, meaning he's not able to make sudden movements or adjustments in small windows. I'd feel comfortable passing on him in my drafts.

RB Rasheen Ali, Ravens - Has some twitchiness and agility. More sudden than most of the day three backs. I could not find a 40 time on him due to injury, but apparently he has a track background. To me his play speed looked merely good and not special. He has a relatively lean frame and is bothered by arm tackles. I think his upside is probably capped to a committee role simply because of his size/power limitations.

RB Tyrone Tracy, Giants - Looks to be somewhere in the Tashard Choice-Pierre Thomas ballpark as a talent, which points towards him being slightly underrated here as a 5th round pick. He's an above average athlete with good fluidity and some pass catching value. Agile with good balance. He has enough size and power to potentially be a full-time guy. In terms of negatives, he's another over-aged prospect and he lacks a second gear. I don't see an elite ceiling here, but given the dross the Giants are employing at RB post-Saquon, it's not impossible that we could see Tracy get some work in the near future. A quality stash.

RB Keilan Robinson, Jaguars - Noticeable burst. He has plus speed and quickness. Lack of size likely dictates a change-of-pace destiny. Lorenzo Booker is a comp.

RB Isaiah Davis, Jets - Worth a flyer. A touch stiff in the second level, but flashes decent footwork at times. Big and versatile enough to potentially be a stopgap starter. Comparable to Shipley, but a bit bigger with less speed and cleaner cuts. He looks good enough to stick on a roster and could eventually become the top handcuff to Hall, so let's say I'm cautiously optimistic here.

RB Kimani Vidal, Chargers - Compact with a low center of gravity. Quality testing numbers. From an eyeball test standpoint, I'm not quite sold. What gives me pause is that he appears to be a less dynamic version of Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Branden Oliver. As neither of those guys exactly set the NFL on fire, I'm struggling to get overly excited about a short-stocky back who has inferior cuts and burst.

RB Jase McClellan, Falcons - A bit of an enigma. The Alabama RB room has churned out numerous great NFL backs in the last decade or so. It's not easy to get carries on this team. McClellan was a top HS recruit who put up decent stats for the Tide. On paper he has the dimensions of a starter, and he's certainly not devoid of talent on the tape. He shows flashes of real quickness and cutting ability. On the other hand, I don't think he plays to his weight. He doesn't have the thump of Jacobs, Ingram, or Richardson. His functional power is more in Kenyan Drake territory, except he doesn't have Drake's speed. He also seems to run tentatively, like he's afraid of contact. My overall impression of McClellan is that he's intriguing, but that the puzzle doesn't quite add up. Let's call him an underachiever. For a 6th rounder, you could do much, much worse though. A developmental backup behind Bijan with some long-term potential.

RB Jawhar Jordan, Texans - Not a burner on the stopwatch, but the play speed really stands out. Some of the best speed in this RB class. However, he's built very slight. Is this a Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles in hiding? No, I don't think he has that level of talent, and neither did the NFL scouts. He's likely just a situational chess piece for CJ Stroud's offense if he even makes this roster.

RB Dylan Laube, Raiders - Noticeable suddenness. Loose and explosive. Doesn't look 205+ pounds or seem to run with thump though. I think he's a scatback type with situational value and no real starting potential. That likely makes him a clear fade for FF purposes.



So there you have it. I won't have any thoughts on UDFAs until 53 man rosters are finalized, at which time I'll check to see if anyone else stuck.

It looks like my guys in this RB class are MarShawn Lloyd, Ray Davis, and Tyrone Tracy in terms of being good rookie draft targets at ADP. I'd probably take an end-of-bench flyer on Isaiah Davis or Jase McClellan in deep leagues if the entry price were near zero. I'm middle of the road on Corum and Brooks. As Brooks carries the RB1 price tag, it's unlikely that I would be drafting him anywhere.

 

[joey]

Fantastic stuff as always @EBF
Can’t wait for your WR write up.

 

[Jimmy Tiger]

Thank you! One of the best threads in the Shark Pool every year. Appreciate your thoughts.

 

[Skipdog77]

Great stuff. Thanks for the effort and for sharing with the class!

 

[EBF]

Gonna start going through the WRs. There are a lot of these guys, so I'm going to break it into multiple posts across multiple days.

Let's start with the top of the class. First rounders.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals - My attitude towards him is similar to my attitude towards Bijan last year. I like him, but I don't think he's as otherworldly as I would've hoped. When you see a WR with crazy stats picked in the top 5 of the draft, you hope to see freakish. Harrison isn't freakish though. He's not Owens, Moss, Andre, Calvin, Julio, or Tyreek who can overwhelm with athleticism. He's more of a technician. People are going to compare him to Fitzgerald, but he lacks the same size and strength. From a style standpoint, let's say he's somewhere between Reggie Wayne and CeeDee Lamb. That's still a promising outlook. He's very fluid in his routes with economical movement. He has a long frame and catches the ball well. He has above average speed and can separate downfield. There are no glaring flaws in his game and he appears to be a safe projection to become a high end NFL starter. The negatives are the lack of obvious elite physical tools. He's fast, but not freakishly so. His play strength is just above average and his RAC is nothing special. He should be good. He might be great, but it will be more workmanlike. More Reggie Wayne or AJ Green than Randy Moss.

WR Malik Nabers, Giants - He may be a better pure athlete than Harrison. His north-south speed is noticeable, and puts DBs on their heels instantly. He's a vertical threat with crisp route potential. On the edge he can do stuff that reminds of Chad Johnson and Roddy White. His speed makes him a RAC threat across the middle in the vein of DJ Moore or Donte Stallworth. The fact that he evokes comparisons to several successful NFL players is a promising sign. I'll stop short of calling him a can't-miss guy though. In terms of negatives, he has just average height. There are some bad reps on his game tape, cases where he either lost a contested catch or seemed to quit on a play. I don't put a lot of weight in situation, but a guy with sulky tendencies going to a mess of an org like NYG is probably not ideal. He seems less refined than Harrison. Still a ball of clay and not the finished product. Overall the outlook is still exciting though. His floor is probably in the Stallworth range: a useful NFL starter who lacks consistency. His ceiling is high. Pro Bowl level. Somehwere in Roddy White and DJ Moore territory. My overall verdict is that he has more volatility than Harrison, but possibly more upside as well. A worthwhile gamble high in the rookie draft. He may require more patience than Harrison.

WR Rome Odunze, Bears - An old school X receiver with a well-rounded game. Tall with above average size and play strength. An efficient route runner who can separate out of breaks. If we're looking for negatives, his vertical speed is just average. Defensive backs don't fear his wheels. He doesn't have the speed to just fly by people. The elite versions of this archetype are people like Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall. Odunze is a half notch below that standard, but should still have enough to become a reliable target for Caleb Williams. We can conservatively predict a Michael Pittman Jr. type of trajectory with the ceiling to be a little better.

WR Brian Thomas, Jaguars - I went through three different game cut-ups and still had some trouble reaching a verdict on him. He's tall and athletic. Fluid moving north-south. Timed speed is elite. Play speed may not be quite as special. I didn't think he was an elite vertical separator. He's also probably the least proven route runner of the top WRs in this draft. Can he be a consistent chain mover or is he just a downfield guy? Is he aggressive enough? It seemed like he was overly inclined to let the ball come to him on certain reps rather than attacking it to win the contested catch. I'm going to say he's the Quentin Johnson of this class: a tall, lean developmental WR with some plus athletic traits. There's an interesting ceiling here if he puts it all together, but he lacks polish and comes with more volatility than people like Harrison and Odunze.

WR Xavier Worthy, Chiefs - He's basically a Tank Dell clone. Crisp athlete with a very slight frame. In theory his speed and quickness should make him a RAC threat, but he's not phone both elusive and his lack of bulk makes him an easy tackle. Very limited play strength. The Chiefs have been trying to replace Tyreek Hill's explosiveness for years. Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney are cautionary tales proving that you can't just throw any reasonable WR into this offense and expect him to thrive. Worthy will never be the athlete or player that Hill was in KC because he's not that fast or strong, but he can be a useful situational weapon in the mold of Dell. The difference is that Dell was a 3rd round pick who carried modest expectations into the rookie draft, whereas Worthy's first round status will likely lead to a higher entry price. I like the player and of course I like the situation, but we have to recognize that his target volume and consistency will probably be limited by his lack of size.

WR Ricky Pearsall, 49ers - Fast and competitive. Reliable catcher. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations and looming salary cap nightmares, it makes sense why the 49ers would pick a high floor guy as an insurance policy for Deebo and Aiyuk. Pearsall is a versatile WR who can split out wide or work out of the slot. He doesn't have glaring flaws, but his game also lacks elite qualities. Minimal play strength for RAC situations. Good speed on the edge, but not burner level and doesn't have exceptional size or range to win the contested balls. I'm going to compare him to former Ohio State/Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez, who had a similar game and draft slot. Prior to injuries, Gonzalez was an effective rotational option for the peak Harrison-Wayne-Manning Colts. I'll be surprised if Pearsall is a bust, but he may top out as another 800 yard role player type. A cog in the machine. Likely not a star.

WR Xavier Legette, Panthers - One of the better athletes in this WR class, with a combination of strength and vertical speed that really stands out. He's not shifty in space, but he's a RAC threat because of his straight line speed and power. Looks to be just an okay separator at the break point, though his speed can eat up cushion. Is it lazy to compare him to Deebo and DJ Moore because he's a Panther from South Carolina? I don't think so. Those are two realistic style matches. That seems to bode well for Legette's outlook. Big with plus mobility is a WR archetype that I will usually feel comfortable betting on. I'm going to stop short of giving Legette a full green rating, but I think I'll slide him above Pearsall, Worthy, and Thomas on my 2024 WR board. The question marks here are the lack of route polish and genuine east-west quicks. The expectation is that he still has enough juice to be a Donte Stallworth on the low end and a DJ Moore if everything clicks.

 

[JohnnyU]

WR Xavier Legette, Panthers - One of the better athletes in this WR class, with a combination of strength and vertical speed that really stands out. He's not shifty in space, but he's a RAC threat because of his straight line speed and power. Looks to be just an okay separator at the break point, though his speed can eat up cushion. Is it lazy to compare him to Deebo and DJ Moore because he's a Panther from South Carolina? I don't think so. Those are two realistic style matches. That seems to bode well for Legette's outlook. Big with plus mobility is a WR archetype that I will usually feel comfortable betting on. I'm going to stop short of giving Legette a full green rating, but I think I'll slide him above Pearsall, Worthy, and Thomas on my 2024 WR board. The question marks here are the lack of route polish and genuine east-west quicks. The expectation is that he still has enough juice to be a Donte Stallworth on the low end and a DJ Moore if everything clicks.

Legette will be another wasted pick, just as Mingo appears to be.

 

[Jamesinaz]

Mucho appreciation for this scouting report. Wish my brain could remember all this on draft day but who knows. maybe ONE of them will come home with me at the right cost.

 

[EBF]

2ND ROUND RECEIVERS

WR Keon Coleman, Bills - Sort of in that Brian Thomas space where I don't quite know what to make of him. Pretty good athlete with above average height. Flashes good extension and jump ball ability. The separation is a bit of a question mark. While I wouldn't say he's a bad athlete, there's a lack of suddenness to his game. The pair of 4.6 40 times at the combine mirror a lack of vertical explosiveness on the field. I won't rule out the possibility of him carving out a productive role, but I'll say he's a lesser version of Allen Robinson. Robinson was also a rangy tall guy with 4.6 stopwatch speed, but he flashed a lot more elusiveness, route running, and RAC in college than I saw from Coleman. If Coleman is a slightly stronger and less elusive Robinson then that likely points to more of a stopgap type of career than being a perennially productive starter. Probably a light pass for me.

WR Ladd McConkey, Chargers - Might be the best route runner in the draft. He's extremely quick and efficient in his breaks, routinely generating easy separation. Seamlessly transitions to running after the catch. The raw physical tools aren't overwhelming and the ceiling isn't special, but he can be the quarterback's best friend as a versatile safety valve. I'll draw a parallel to Adam Thielen. I like the fit with a good QB and coach in LA. At minimum McConkey should be a really good piece of the puzzle with the upside to be a multi-year FF starter ala Thielen.

WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Patriots - Jack-of-all trades #2 receiver. Taller than average with solid route running ability and overall mobility. Not much of a deep threat, but can separate and poses at least some danger after the catch. Good extension and contested catch ability. I'll say Michael Gallup-Eric Decker represents a realistic expectation for his floor and ceiling, meaning minimally a good role player with strong starter potential.

WR Adonai Mitchell, Colts - Low play strength. A workout freak, but on the field his explosiveness looked just good, not special. Route running is middle of the pack. While he's fast, he's not a great RAC threat because he's not elusive or powerful. He's a bit of a speed-size tweener without any one single defining quality. Hard to envision him becoming a target monster. I think his output will be in the ballpark of Parris Campbell or Jayden Reed where he's just a fast guy to fill out multi-WR sets. He's not terrible, but my hunch is that you can pass on him in FF without too much fear of regretting it in the future.

 

[EBF]

3RD ROUND RECEIVERS

WR Malachi Corley, Jets - Poor man's Deebo. A slot weapon with power and some RAC ability. Didn't do much on the outside or show much route nuance, but maybe he can have some value working the middle of the field. You could compare him to Amari Rodgers from the 2021 draft, who was also paired with Aaron Rodgers and didn't set the world on fire. They're similar in terms of body type, play style, and draft capital. Corley could have some NFL value, but I don't think you'll regret passing in FF.

WR Jermaine Burton, Bengals - My clear favorite of the 3rd round cluster. I wasn't initially blown away by the highlights, but when I went into the individual game cut-ups, my appreciation grew. Loose athlete with very good route running ability. He can separate at the break point and also possesses the speed to challenge downfield. Burst off the line is apparent in game film, matching his standout testing metrics. He may be better than his production at Alabama indicated, as I saw some reps where the QB left yards on the field by missing throws. The negatives with Burton are that he has an average frame and mediocre RAC ability. He's a technician who will win on the edges with speed and route savvy. He profiles as a good #2 receiver with an outside chance of becoming a top target ala Derrick Mason or Diontae Johnson.

WR Roman Wilson, Steelers - Slot weapon. Faster than quick. He gets north-south quickly and has good speed, but sometimes rounds the top of routes and doesn't always show great quickness out of his breaks. Right away you have to question the FF upside because he's not very big and was utilized primarily in the slot in college, yet doesn't have the dynamic qualities to turn slot touches into home runs. While he's a good player, the most likely outcome is that he's just a supporting actor for the Steelers, working the slot as a #3 WR.

WR Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers - With Odunze and Polk on the roster, he was typically relegated to slot duty in the clips I saw, but could ultimately be a more natural fit outside. Frame is on the lean side with below average play strength, but he flashes some vertical ability and downfield speed. Another player who is faster than quick. He's not elusive in space, which is part of the reason why he's a poor fit in the slot. However, he can get past people in a straight line using his speed. Lacks strength at the catch point and doesn't figure to be a target monster. The ceiling here is probably something in Todd Pinkston or Johnny Knox territory where he's a deep threat with medium production.

WR Luke McCaffrey, Commanders - Testing metrics are okay, but on the field his athleticism looks limited. A competitive slot weapon who seems to lack dynamic traits. Compared to the other slots at the top of the draft, he's a little bit less crisp in his movement. I see modest value here. A Griff Whalen type of trajectory that you can probably ignore. The name on the jersey may entice some people to dream big, but I think you can pass without risk of regret.


That's all the top WR prospects done. I spent a decent amount of time on these guys and went through multiple games for most of them. I'll take a break tomorrow and then blast through the back stretch of the WR class in quicker fashion before looking at the TEs.

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks East Bay Funk. Very enjoyable read.

 

[EBF]

4TH ROUND RECEIVERS

WR Troy Franklin, Broncos - Fast. He's a vertical threat with above average speed. Challenges defenders off the line. Limited strength and power. Route running looks to be just okay. I think he has a chance to be useful in a niche capacity. The rosiest comparisons would be people like Tank Dell and DeSean Jackson. He's taller, but built skinny like that. While I don't hate the tape, the profile suggests a role player trajectory.

WR Javon Baker, Patriots - A fun one to evaluate. Very nimble with great footwork and body control. Adjusts to the ball well. Shifty and quick out of breaks. Not as heavy as he looks, but plays with decent functional strength. RAC threat. Cut from the same cloth as other size-quickness hybrid possession receivers like Crabtree, Cotchery, Nicks, and Aiyuk. It's a profile that typically translates well to the NFL level. Here's the sticking point: he's a one speed player with no second gear. Very average speed. Labors off the line and does not challenge vertically. He will not run by NFL corners. Still, I like the potential as a high-volume chain mover. Crabtree, Nicks, and Aiyuk were first round NFL picks with a little more sizzle to their game. Let's go with Cotchery as the comparison for Baker. Cotchery also came out of the 4th round with a similar skill set and had a relevant career.

WR Devontez Walker, Ravens - Fast. Fluid moving downfield, but more of a question mark coming out of breaks or improvising with the ball in his hands. Quickness and toughness are uncertain. Ran a lot of vertical routes in college and wasn't utilized in possession situations, making that element more of a projection. Frame is on the lean side. The comparisons he evoked for me were a pair of recent LSU receivers: Terrace Marshall and DJ Chark. The similarity is being a medium-sized WR who's at his best when he's flying downfield. I can envision Walker having production with a quarterback like Roethlisberger who specialized in turning deep threats into viable FF assets. However, that's a narrow path to FF utility and I'm not convinced Lamar or the Ravens are the right fit to realize it. Because the talent looks just medium-good to me and the situation is poor, I would probably prioritize other WR prospects.

WR Jacob Cowing, Arizona - I actually evaluated him for a dev draft when he was still at UTEP and came away moderately impressed. He looks much the same at Arizona. A spark plug in the passing game. Solid athlete. Has some explosiveness and also looks crisp running routes. Despite low listed weight, has some functional strength and plays with physicality. You could say he's a poor man's Antonio Brown, a smallish WR who plays with explosiveness and aggression. At just 5'8" 168, he's pushing the outer boundaries of what a full-time outside NFL WR can look like. He may ultimately be better suited to a part-time slot role, which would limit his FF ceiling. He frequently operated out of the slot at Arizona and lacks the obvious size/speed to play on the edge. The comparison that I'm going to come with is former Broncos WR Eddie Royal. Royal had a similar body type with plenty of explosiveness and weight room strength. He was a good player, but struggled to carve out more than a niche role because he wasn't big or dynamic enough to thrive outside. That seems like the most probable outcome for Cowing, whose most notable FF role might be cannibalizing Pearsall into irrelevance.

 

[EBF]

5TH-7TH ROUND RECEIVERS

As promised, I blasted through this cluster. For the sake of full disclosure, I was pretty thorough with the 1st-4th rounders. With the back end of the draft, I worked a lot faster. My process was to watch a highlight reel for each player and then maybe look at one or two game cut-ups if I still had questions.

Perhaps as a result of this less thorough process, my thoughts feel more noncommittal with most of the 5th-7th rounders.

WR Anthony Gould, IND - Smallish frame. Nice testing numbers. Decent route running. Doug Baldwin type of player. Worth a cheap stash.
WR Ainias Smith, PHI - RAC threat. Limited route runner. Looks like a role player. Poor man's Christian Kirk.
WR Jamari Thrash, CLE - Quick feet, but lacks the power or burst to be a great RAC threat. Lean frame. Modest ceiling. Tyler Boyd at best.
WR Bub Means, NO - Plus size. Straight line mover. Not much separation or quickness. A Denzel Mims type. I usually bet against this archetype.
------------------
WR Jha'Quan Jackson, TEN - Good athlete. Above average speed and quickness. Primarily a slot in college. Outside potential is a ??? Kendall Wright comp.
WR Malik Washington, MIA - Smallish slot weapon. Explosive, but movement lacks precision. Should max out as a niche weapon.
WR Johnny Wilson, PHI - Rare height and length. Quicker feet than you'd expect. Lacks speed. Hands? Interesting developmental possession guy.
WR Casey Washington, ATL- Scrappy possession type. Game lacks superlative traits and precision. Purely a depth body?
WR Tejhaun Palmer, ARI - The thrift store Brian Thomas. Straight line glider. Not much quickness or agility to be seen in clips.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR - Fits the LAR mold of Kupp and Nacua, but probably too limited athletically to impact the pro level.
WR Ryan Flournoy, DAL - Workout freak. Game clips did not match the eye-popping combine numbers. Slight frame. No power. Does not play explosive.
------------------
WR Brenden Rice, LAC - Workmanlike possession receiver. Not fast, but decently quick with above average height. A poor man's Keenan McCardell.
WR Devaughn Vele, DEN - Tall. Just an average separator. Game lacks sizzle or standout qualities. Likely just a depth body.
WR Tahj Washington, MIA - Undersized spark plug with some slot value. Upside looks capped. Less talented Wan'Dale or Curtis Samuel.
WR Cornelius Johnson, LAC - No-nonsense chain mover with very modest speed and explosion. Could stick and contribute. Lowish ceiling.

I'm reluctant to commit to a color code for these guys. Gould was probably the most impressive player in this cluster. Jackson has nice athletic traits. I compared him to Kendall Wright because they have very similar builds and athleticism. Wright was a lot more established coming out of Baylor and had flashed a lot more outside potential. With Jackson, it's a projection because he was mainly a slot at Tulane. I think he's at least an interesting ball of clay to develop. Wilson could be a unique project. His game lacks dynamic qualities and he's an unreliable catcher, but 6'7" with some mobility is a unique project for a team to work on. I thought Jerry's kid, Brenden Rice, had above average potential for a 7th round dart throw. He's not dynamic, but he does a lot of the little things well and could claw his way onto the field eventually.

I didn't want to put late round guys on the red list because they're all longshots by default, but you can tell from the comments that I'm relatively skeptical of Means, Whittington, and Flournoy. Many of the late round guys look like slot lifers, which would seem to cap the FF potential. Oddly enough, all three Washingtons (Malik, Casey, and Tahj) all have this issue.

 

[dipandglide]

Thanks @EBF!

 

[EBF]

That concludes the RB and WR analysis. Before I move into the TEs and maybe the QBs, I'll try to summarize some key thoughts.

To recap, the list of RBs who really caught my eye from a risk-reward standpoint is...

RB - MarShawn Lloyd (GB), Ray Davis (BUF), Tyrone Tracy (NYG)

If you ask me which player from this class people are going to regret passing on in 3-4 years, I'd probably pick Lloyd. The reasoning is that he has all the physical tools and football skills to hit in a massive way and become a guy who wins leagues for you. I'll once again make the Kamara comparison. Similar physical profile and draft capital. Both were underutilized in college, and came into the league underrated as a result. I've subsequently read that Lloyd has major fumbling problems. While that's not a good thing, I consider it a mostly fixable issue. Stash him and wait.

Davis and Tracy appear to have less upside than Lloyd. However, both could be useful as spot starters. I like my CJ Anderson comparison for Ray Davis. Big back with some speed and agility who could have utility if Cook falters or proves incapable of handling full-time duty. With Tracy, I see a nice potential to become a Pierre Thomas type who has surprising production as a cheap pickup. Singletary is fine, but not special. There may be touches available. Tracy is very athletic with a nice first cut and a starter body type.

Beyond those guys, I'd be willing to look at Corum, I Davis, and McClellan near ADP. I just don't consider them plus value. They are break-even options. I don't hate Jonathon Brooks, but I felt he may have been overdrafted, particularly for a guy coming off a knee injury.

The list of WRs I'd be focusing on in rookie and startup drafts is...

WR - Ladd McConkey (LAC), Ja'Lynn Polk (NE), Jermaine Burton (CIN), Javon Baker (NE)

To get it out of the way immediately, I feel fine about Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze near ADP. Their omission here is because this list is about risk-reward and not just absolute quality. The high entry price of the elite prospects makes it harder to realize a profit. The same logic more or less applies for Worthy and Legette. I'd rank them near their generic ADP, which is to say I'm neither very high nor very down on them.

In a draft littered with slot guys, McConkey stands out because of his inside-out potential and elite route running. I'll repeat the Adam Thielen comparison. Polk lacks superstar potential, but could become a reliable starter ala Eric Decker. Burton is in the Mark Clayton-Derrick Mason territory as a smallish outside WR with nice athleticism and crisp route ability. With Ja'Marr Chase taking the lion's share of the defensive attention, maybe Burton can eventually be a productive second option for Joe Burrow.

Javon Baker is a half-step away from being Brandon Aiyuk. There's a similarity in body type and play style. I wish Baker had a little more outright speed, but given that his ADP is likely to be modest, this is a player I would be snapping up in most of my rookie drafts. He fits an archetype that usually works well in the NFL, which is the plus-size possession WR with good break point separation, body control, and RAC. I'm buying all day at ADP.

 

[King of the Jungle]

One of my favorite posts of the year, thank you for the work on this. I love your perspective as it seems to be genuinely of your own and not at all influenced by the consensus. Thank again!

 

[EBF]

One of my favorite posts of the year, thank you for the work on this. I love your perspective as it seems to be genuinely of your own and not at all influenced by the consensus. Thank again!

One of the nice things about approaching it from more of a casual perspective now is that I'm totally outside of the hype bubble. I don't follow any draftniks on social media. I don't know who the popular sleeper picks are. I don't know who was considered a reach or a steal in the NFL draft. I just look at the qualities, evaluate what I'm seeing, and try to arrive at an opinion. That doesn't mean my batting average is going to be any better than anybody else's, but it does mean that what I'm putting out there is a real opinion and not just me parroting other sources to try to look savvy.

When consensus calcifies around a certain take, people start to repeat it by default instead of practicing critical thinking. One of the ways to find value in FF (not just in rookie drafts) is to identify those pockets where the auto-pilot thinking is astray.

 

[abrunn1133]

One of my favorite posts of the year, thank you for the work on this. I love your perspective as it seems to be genuinely of your own and not at all influenced by the consensus. Thank again!

One of the nice things about approaching it from more of a casual perspective now is that I'm totally outside of the hype bubble. I don't follow any draftniks on social media. I don't know who the popular sleeper picks are. I don't know who was considered a reach or a steal in the NFL draft. I just look at the qualities, evaluate what I'm seeing, and try to arrive at an opinion. That doesn't mean my batting average is going to be any better than anybody else's, but it does mean that what I'm putting out there is a real opinion and not just me parroting other sources to try to look savvy.

When consensus calcifies around a certain take, people start to repeat it by default instead of practicing critical thinking. One of the ways to find value in FF (not just in rookie drafts) is to identify those pockets where the auto-pilot thinking is astray.

Not to mention someone trying to give you a scouting report AFTER they drafted someone, or AFTER they missed out on someone.

 

[EBF]

Trying to get through the TE class before all the weekend games.

I'll start with the top three.

TE Brock Bowers, Raiders - Clean prospect with no glaring flaws and some obvious plus traits. Above average athlete. Loose route runner and elusive after the catch. Not freaky fast, but provides some downfield threat. Big enough with good base strength. In terms of other recent high picks at the position, I like him more than Hockenson. Pitts was a better vertical threat, but Bowers is more of a traditional TE with better agility and strength. The overall impression I get is that of a slightly better Jeremy Shockey, which indicates a Pro Bowl type of trajectory. The question you always have to ask with these high end TE prospects is what they're worth compared to the RB/WR options. When you draft a TE in the top 5-6 of your rookie draft, you really need him to become special or you've wasted an opportunity to find talent at a higher value position. I view Bowers as a high floor option with a medium-good ceiling, though perhaps not crazy dominant.

TE Ben Sinnott, Commanders - Not quite as fluid or elusive as Bowers. Route running and separation are a minor question mark. There's a little bit of tightness there, but he's probably still a plus athlete for the position. What distinguishes him from the 4th round cluster in this draft class is the RAC threat he provides through his combination of power and speed. He's good at getting north-south after the catch. He's in the ballpark of Chris Cooley and Trey McBride in terms of body type, skill set, and play style. However, there are enough nitpicks to dissuade me from calling him a can't-miss guy. A reasonable second tier talent with potential to break into the low end of the top 10 FF TEs eventually. Probably neutral value or a small win at ADP.

TE Tip Reiman, Cardinals - Just an average athlete for the position. While he's not dead weight as a receiver, he's not special either. Average mobility. His style skews more towards the blocking side of the TE duties, which probably doesn't bode well for FF. Immediate opportunity shouldn't guide all our decisions in rookie drafts, but the presence of Trey McBride on this roster has to put a damper on Reiman's value. As he's not a flashy talent with obvious elite traits, I think the smart play is simply to fade him in your drafts and maybe pre-emptively add him in the future when he's approaching free agency. It might be worth kicking the tires on him if he were ever in line for a starting job, but he's not so amazing that you need to find a spot for him right away. In all likelihood just a rotational/complementary guy on Sundays.

 

[EBF]

After those first three TEs, you have this giant cluster of 4th round guys. I see quite a lot of talent here, yet also a common thread indicating why these players fell so far. While many of these 4th round TEs appear to have starter potential, the group generally lacks big play flair and exceptional chunk play potential. If we believe that NFL teams pay a premium for value-over-replacement-player then we can understand why these guys fell so far despite being good prospects. While many of them are good, they don't provide exceptional qualities.

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, Panthers - Above average athlete. RAC threat. Was used in a lot of creative ways at Texas, where they manufactured touches for him with screens and designed dump-offs. It says something about his athletic ability that they were eager to get the ball in his hands, but he's just good in this area, not elite. Less impressive when running traditional routes. He's not a terrible route runner, but tends to round breaks and cuts, and is not an elite separator. Hands look fine. He made some great grabs. I write this review with the knowledge that he has already been named as the day one starter for Carolina, which has to be viewed as a positive. Even without that knowledge, what I see on tape is a quality developmental prospect with plus RAC traits. He's not an elite athlete ala Dustin Keller, Eric Ebron, or Evan Engram. However, there's enough here for him to potentially become viable as a fringe starter in FF. Delanie Walker might be an overly-bullish comparison. Let's say he's in the ballpark of Jonnu Smith. Jonnu is probably a better pure athlete, but Sanders comes into the NFL with more polish as a pure pass catcher. Starter potential, but don't go crazy. I'll be surprised if he's a star. More of a mid level ceiling. Nice value for Carolina in the 4th though.

TE Theo Johnson, Giants - Lined up all over the formation in the game I watched (vs. Ohio State 2023). Willing in-line blocker. Deployed in the slot and out wide as well. Nice height and testing numbers. Play speed looks okay, but not freaky. More fast than quick. He's just an average separator. Not much of a RAC threat due to mediocre agility. I like the pick for the Giants in terms of real-life value. He's a good all-around TE who offers solid potential as a blocker and receiver. For FF purposes, the lack of superlative traits dampens my enthusiasm. While his versatility and well-round game may get him on the field, the lack of dynamic qualities may limit a team's enthusiasm for feeding him touches. The most likely outcome here is that he's a useful role player for NYG who offers solid real-life value as a rotational TE option. If he hits as an FF option, it will probably be more of a single than a home run. That means you can probably ignore him in most formats without too much risk of regret.

TE Erick All, Bengals - Athletic in-line option who flashes nice route running. He's not shifty or explosive in a phone booth, but has some suddenness in his routes. Built-up speed looks better than his 40 time (4.80) suggests. The comparison that comes to mind is NFL journeyman Josh Oliver, a former 3rd round pick who has hung around the league without ever being very relevant in FF. Oliver illustrates how easy it is for a talented player to get a lost in the shuffle if he doesn't have superlative traits, which would also be my concern for All.

TE AJ Barner, Seahawks - He's not explosive, but he is athletic. Nice footwork and fluidity in his movement. Sluggish combine 40 time (4.84) is mirrored by lack of speed in clips. While he'll never be an elite seam threat or big play artist, he has potential to be very effective as a reliable possession target. Big frame and quick in his routes. We can draw a parallel with longtime NFL stalwart Kyle Rudolph. Barner has the same body type, play style, and lack of speed. While Rudolph never became an elite stat machine, he was borderline relevant in FF. Barner can potentially be the same. I like the value here for Seattle in the 4th round.

TE Cade Stover, Texans - A rumbler type who wants to win through physicality rather than finesse. Above average power. Hit magnet who is involved in a lot of big collisions. Somewhat tight athlete. Struggles to evade in the second level. Route running and separation are question marks. He provides some RAC threat and might be a fun weapon as a situational TE. The overall skill set is flawed enough that I'm inclined to fade him for FF purposes.

TE Jared Wiley, Chiefs - Tall frame and carries his weight well, moving almost like a WR at times. Not super fast, but mobile. Has the tools to become a pretty good route runner and red zone threat. I'm not a situation drafter for the most part, but you have to like the opportunity here in KC to play with an elite franchise QB and potentially emerge as the Kelce replacement. Kelce is getting old and can't have many seasons of elite play left. There's nothing stopping KC from eventually burning a high pick on his replacement, but maybe Wiley has enough talent to prevent them from doing that. I see enough value here to rank him high among this TE class for rookie draft purposes, probably between TE3-5.


While I haven't given any TEs a GREEN or RED designation, my thinking is that I would be very happy taking Bowers as a safe pick in the mid 1st of a rookie draft. He's unlikely to carry your franchise, but he's a bulletproof type of talent with a good chance to be useful in FF. You probably have to take Sinnott as the TE2, though he's more flawed. When we talk about the sleepers, I find myself leaning towards Sanders and Wiley for highest ceiling. They offer the most flash of the 4th round TEs. I like Barner as a candidate in very deep formats where a Kyle Rudolph/Hunter Henry type has utility.

 

[JohnnyU]

@EBF , was it you that doesn’t play dynasty any longer?

 

[EBF]

The answer is in literally the first sentence of this thread.

 

[JohnnyU]

The answer is in literally the first sentence of this thread.

Lol, sorry. Ok, I have two questions. Why the interest in rookies if you don’t play dynasty, because they sure don’t make enough impact in redraft most of the time? Why don’t you play dynasty?

 

[EBF]

The answer is in literally the first sentence of this thread.

Lol, sorry. Ok, I have two questions. Why the interest in rookies if you don’t play dynasty, because they sure don’t make enough impact in redraft most of the time? Why don’t you play dynasty?

1. The rankings were a tradition for me and there are some people who enjoy reading them. It also helps me get acquainted with the new talent entering the league. The background knowledge is valuable in redraft formats and for DFS, which I dabble in.

2. I played dynasty for about 20 years. I was getting bored of FF and bored of the NFL in general. Been there, done that. I began trimming leagues. I probably would've kept 1 team just to have some skin in the game, but some of my oldest leagues happened to fold during these years.

 

[dipandglide]

This is an early request for you to make this thread post-NFL draft, not during redraft season!

Your write-ups are as good as any. I hope your call on Shakir manifests in a 1000/80/8 type of year. Good luck in 2024!