2024 Survivor Picks Discussion (1 Viewer)

[FantasyMC]

Would a thread discussing survivor picks be allowed? This isn't about running a pool, it's just to talk about what picks you might make and the reasons why and to give some helpful advice to others.

If not allowed, this can be deleted. Thanks.

I'll start by saying I think Cincy at home vs New England might be the best looking choice (hoping Chase plays though).

 

[Leroy Hoard]

When in doubt I usually defer to the biggest favorite. So probably (not definitely) Cincinnati also for me.

 

[Lehigh98]

There's usually a thread every year.
Survivorgrid.com is a big help.

 

[Faust]

Bengals are currently drawing 41.7% of the picks on Survivor Grid with a 1.00 EV and a 78.1% win percentage. They are the “safe choice”; however, they are also 3.5 stars for future value for picks in later weeks, and if the Patriots somehow manage to pull off the upset, then a large chunk of the pool will get eliminated in week 1.

 

[Faust]

The Seahawks look good to me as an alternative pick. They are the choice with 7.8% of the picks on Survivor Grid, they are a 1.04 EV and they are a 67.2% win percentage with a half star for future value.

The size of the pool that you are playing in will also matter for the strategy on making your picks.

 

[sheerterror]

Roughest week 1 I can remember in quite some time.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

The Seahawks look good to me as an alternative pick. They are the choice with 7.8% of the picks on Survivor Grid, they are a 1.04 EV and they are a 67.2% win percentage with a half star for future value.

The size of the pool that you are playing in will also matter for the strategy on making your picks.

I love the Seahawks this week for survivor pools. Rookie QB Bo Nix on the road in SEA. Gimme that all day.

 

[chocula]

My week 1 picks (I have multiple picks in multiple pools): Seattle, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Chicago and LA Chargers.
Cincinnati makes me nervous this week. they typically get off to a slow start and I agree that there could be an upset. Keep in mind that I usually get some picks wrong in week 1 and actually lost 4 picks in week 1 on a pool last year. I seem to recall New Orleans burning me in week 1 in multiple years in the past, so swore never to use them to start the season again.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I am taking the Bills but I see the appeal of Seattle too

 

[need2know]

Who this week? Ravens seem like a lock

 

[-jb-]

Going DET

 

[Lehigh98]

Roughest week 1 I can remember in quite some time.

Kicking myself for taking the Bungles after everyone is showing the 1-8 record in weeks 1 and 2 the past several years, missed that one. I used to avoid the Saints and Drew Brees and their usual slow starts and watched others get knocked out because of it but wiffed on the Bengals. Still alive in one pool after splitting and taking the (Breesless) Saints though!

 

[Church of Iggy Pop]

Glad to find some of the same "faces" in this thread again this season.

Ravens indeed seem like a lock, but also very popular. I'll take them in my small friends and family pool.

For large field contests, I'm a believer in taking calculated risks early in the season. I'd rather save the Ravens for week six against Commanders, for example.

What do you think about a couple of other bird teams:

• Eagles hosting immobile Kirk Cousins in primetime.
• Seahawks on the road at Patriots. The Patriots were solid last week, but watching their game, I felt the win was more a case of them happily letting the Bengals beat themselves. Burrow looked timid in the pocket. Maybe just sour grapes. The Seahawks showed a lot of week one rust in the first half, but got rolling later on.

It's also tempting to keep the "Whoever is playing the Panthers" strategy rolling this season, but can the Chargers travel to EDT and win?

 

[Krilons Resa]

Tempted to roll with LAC with both my picks this week but may diversify with IND.

 

[Church of Iggy Pop]

I split my Week 2 survivor portfolio among the Seahawks, Eagles, and one Ravens entry for absolute safety.
After two weeks, I've got just one survivor contest entry still alive.

Everyone's got a bad beat story, but Saquon's dropped pass was a killer.

Looking ahead, I'll probably be happily picking against Andy Dalton against the Raiders.