2024 - The Year of Disparity, Inconsistency, and Confusion (1 Viewer)

[-jb-]

I’ve seen it in different ADP lists. I’ve heard it on podcasts. I see it on this bored.

By this point in the preseason, things have tended to settle in to the common industry group think. Everyone is IN on this player. Everyone is OUT on that player. Everyone knows EXACTLY what to expect from each team.

Not this year.

I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen so much variation in rankings and opinions. I’ve even heard podcasters say, “you know, I actually have no idea what’s going to happen with Player X.” While refreshing, it’s candidly kind of messed up my typical starting approach. We probably all take a look at ADP or rankings, knowing/believing that they are largely the same from site to site, then identifying the players we believe the market has undervalued. It’s still your own take, but based on that groupthink that has been common over the last decade (at least). This year, it’s seemingly out the window.

This is really good news for folks who have time and are good analyzers and bad for those who are the opposite of those things.

Are others seeing/feeling this, as well?

How has this state of affairs changed your approach to the draft, if at all?

The lack of general predictability is out the window, which has made me pretty much ignore everyone’s ranks/ADPs outside of the first two rounds (though round 2 is also pretty significantly varied).

I don’t really care where this thread goes, I guess. Just wanted to see if I’m on an island with this perception.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

there are more than a couple of teams that project to be a very different team from years past in NFL terms and very much so in Fantasy terms. Chargers and Vikings come to mind right off the top of my head, Denver and Chicago too in a different direction. Then we have teams like Washington and Vegas who are just impossible predict. So perhaps this is the first year in a long time so many teams have significantly changed their on-field identity as a team.

would you mind pointing at some of the players where you see the variance? i personally haven't seen this effect, but i just started catching up last few days.

 

[Scoresman]

At the player level, yes, but at the team level I can't think of too many teams that have a wide range of possible outcomes. I suppose the Bears might be with so much new talent, maybe the Browns since their wildly chaotic and outlier season from last year will not be repeated. The Chargers are also a tossup. Everyone else, I think we have a good idea what to expect.

That said, I agree that within teams, there are a lot of unsettled positions and depth chart questions.

 

[-jb-]

there are more than a couple of teams that project to be a very different team from years past in NFL terms and very much so in Fantasy terms. Chargers and Vikings come to mind right off the top of my head, Denver and Chicago too in a different direction. Then we have teams like Washington and Vegas who are just impossible predict. So perhaps this is the first year in a long time so many teams have significantly changed their on-field identity as a team.

would you mind pointing at some of the players where you see the variance? i personally haven't seen this effect, but i just started catching up last few days.

Yep, you can even add SEA to that list with a new HC (which has led to some variance with KW3).

Coincidentally, a podcast wound up discussing this same topic today, but more through the lens of understanding ADP on the platform you draft from (my leaguemates aren't typically concerned/affected by that).

Here are a few they listed:

Josh Allen
Sleeper 2.09 vs Yahoo 3.09

Drake London
Sleeper 2.06 vs ESPN end of 3rd


Some that I have seen:

Joe Mixon
FP 4.07 vs FFC 3.03

Ken Walker
FP 4.09 vs FFC 3.09

Michael Pittman
FP 3.11 vs FFC 4.09

These are 0.5PPR, and there are more if I wanted to continue looking. The ones above are a round to 1.5 rounds in variance. NBD if they were 8th rounders, but that's a ton for early round players. At least more than I'm used to seeing.