2025 College Football Thread: “Lane won’t do the same thing he’s done for 18 years to us!” LSU says to itself (31 Viewers)

[Ramblin Wreck]

I feel like this keeps coming up, but curious what others would say - is the playoffs about getting the most deserving teams or the best teams?

Obviously the answer is both in an ideal world. But with increased parity, we are likely to see more years like this where you have a BYU team screaming deserving and teams like Texas trying to scream best.

The question of desert depends on the purpose of the thing we’re talking about. In this case, it’s the playoffs for the national championship, which is supposed to determine the best team. So, best = most deserving, and thus the system has failed if the selection criteria is not weighted towards teams like Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, and Texas.

How does this math work?

He inquired about how the system should work, not necessarily how it’s going to play out. I’m also not saying that all four of those teams should make it. But, I don’t think any of those four teams should be omitted in favor of BYU, Boise State, Virginia, Duke, Tulane, North Texas or JMU. If that happens, it’s frustrating the purpose of the CFP, and therefore we need to reevaluate the selection criteria (e.g., getting rid of automatic bids to conference champs).

I more meant "what does that mean?" - weighted in what way? Are you just suggesting the "eye test"? I don't see much value in arguing about Duke and Tulane as that is just the current rule and they have to stick to it. I do think that possible nightmare scenario should convince them to either move (faster) to 16, adjust the rules to prevent a Duke situation or just pick the 12 best teams without any rules.

The rules are adjusted to prevent a Duke situation. JMU is about to show us that if Duke wins.

That's not the adjustment I would be talking about. I would skip them altogether, everything else being equal.

It's coming when there is a P2. I mean when we will end up with Missouri and Tennessee in a 16-team bracket because they lost to good teams and a 10-2 Miami lost to mediocre teams. This whole thing is beyond stupid.

Conferences need to be small enough to have a round robin, or use divisions. The winners of the round robins should be in the playoffs. At least we are comparing apples to apples on the schedules. Don't penalize teams for losing P4 OOC games but reward teams for winning them. We want more Ohio State vs Texas games not less. And we don't need to be arguing that 11-1 A&M and their crap schedule vs 9-3 Texas or 11-1 BYU with entirely different schedules.

 

[Desert_Power]

If Texas had played another cupcake instead of OSU, would they be in the playoffs? If USC, like several of its Big 10 colleagues, had played three cupcakes instead of including Notre Dame, would they be in the playoffs? Or at least not decisively out? Is the playoff structure even further incentivizing schools to avoid marquee out of conference matchups?

I think the playoff incentivizes you not to lose to the worst Florida team in the last 30 years, lose by 4 touchdowns to Georgia and need OT to beat those crap Kentucky and Miss State teams.

Everybody is looking at that Ohio State game wrongly. The incentive there wasn’t to avoid a loss, it was to gain a victory that would have clinched a playoff spot for them. That loss with the rest of their results should keep them out.

It's a fun sidestep but what's your opinion on the question he actually asked?

Yeah, I’m not trying to make an argument in favor of Texas. I’m exploring the consequence of their decision to schedule OSU and how that may impact how other teams schedule their OOC games from here on out, particularly with the SEC dropping from 4 such games to 3.

I don't think many SEC teams are going to schedule these type of games, especially those OOC rivals already.

There's still money and recruiting to consider and not just the playoff. Maybe my school isn't the best example as we aren't a top-10 team but GT has games with Tennessee and Notre Dame on the upcoming schedule and I think those games will stay. I'm not 100% convinced I'm right but I think especially once they expand to 16 then teams will realize they can benefit from those games in most circumstances.

Definitely depends the program too.

 

[Moe.]

Does Duke winning allow Miami to get in as an at large? Or is there a rule that prevents taking a team from a conference unless that conference champ is also going?

It won’t matter either way. They could take Miami as an at-large regardless of what they do with the ACC Champ. There are very little actual rules here.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Does Duke winning allow Miami to get in as an at large? Or is there a rule that prevents taking a team from a conference unless that conference champ is also going?

Duke has nothing to do with Miami. It's essentially the Tulane vs N. Texas winner for a spot and then either UVA, Duke, JMU, Troy, Boise, or UNLV for the other spot. Obviously Troy isn't getting it if they upset JMU. UVA would get it if they win. If Duke and JMU win, JMU likely gets it.

If we assume Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech, UGA, Ole Miss, A&M, and Oklahoma are locks that leaves 2 spots for Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, and Miami. Maybe you can include Texas or Vanderbilt but they have almost no shot at getting in. If Alabama and BYU win this weekend then ND and Miami would be out.

I guess there could be some intrigue if Georgia beats Alabama and we think Miami could jump Alabama after their 3rd loss.

 

[Jayded]

I think the committee really handcuffs themselves by releasing these rankings weekly. If they just waited until after all the conference title games were complete, they could make up whatever criteria they think make sense to get the most deserving teams in and could react to upsets and how they impact the overall field.

The way it works now is they come up with and have to justify certain criteria for things like head to head, good wins, bad losses, records, schedule strength, etc early on and then get stuck to that line of thinking (and previous week rankings) going forward.

Just let the networks do bracketology projections every week and then simply release the official ranking and playoff brackets once after everything is done. You only have to explain your reasoning once and don’t have to backtrack on any earlier rankings.

For example, aside from another ND loss, what would it have taken for the committee to change their rankings to move Miami ahead of ND in their final rankings this week? There’s no way (IMO) they’d be able to justify a switch of those two at this point since they made the decision to put ND higher than Miami a few weeks ago. My conspiracy thinking is this is also why they moved Alabama below ND and have BYU higher than Miami, so they can explain why h2h doesn’t matter for ND/UM. If they didn’t have to do rankings until the end, it would have been “easier” on the commitee to move Miami ahead if they felt them more deserving (I’m not saying they are/aren’t, just that the committee would have more flexibility).

The committee claims if Miami is in the same tier as ND, then head to head will come into play. Miami has to be in the same tier tomorrow. They performed better in the common opponents argument.

They were in the same tier last week per the committee and ranked where they were. To change that now would be to admit a sudden drastic change if they weren’t outright saying that last week. This is where I’d agree with them tipping their hand being a wrinkle.

I will say this, since I’ve run the math. If you only count head to head, there is an argument. The committee ranking them in the same tier and one as 9 while the other is 12 says it’s more than that to them thus far. I can tell you the computers clearly favor ND. I can tell you ND’s SOS is better than Miami’s. I can also tell you Miami’s SOR is far worse than ND and really even negative in doing the math. Those Louisville and SMU losses really hurt Miami in that category and it’s worse when you add SOS into the mix. It’ll come down to the weighting.

I’d also say Miami didn’t perform better in the common opponents argument if you watch the games. Both blew all of those teams out and ND rested starters while Miami kept them in and the committee knows that. Both teams ended the season with point differentials of 24+ ppg. It’s really a H2H one game vs a season long SOS + SOR debate. So be it if ND loses that. They made their own bed.

 

[General Malaise]

Texas should have beaten Florida.

Such a bad loss. I knew it was going to happen, too. Gainseville is a tough spot to play but that's no excuse. UT should have won by 2 TDs. Not that it matters, but if those teams played now they would crush the Gators.

Probably but in this strange rush to defend Texas as playoff worthy due to their sterling wins - which are great, no doubt - they crapped the bed thrice and one of those failures was to a team that fired it's coach when leaves were still on trees. They can only blame themselves for this one.

 

[bolzano]

I feel like this keeps coming up, but curious what others would say - is the playoffs about getting the most deserving teams or the best teams?

Obviously the answer is both in an ideal world. But with increased parity, we are likely to see more years like this where you have a BYU team screaming deserving and teams like Texas trying to scream best.

The question of desert depends on the purpose of the thing we’re talking about. In this case, it’s the playoffs for the national championship, which is supposed to determine the best team. So, best = most deserving, and thus the system has failed if the selection criteria is not weighted towards teams like Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, and Texas.

How does this math work?

He inquired about how the system should work, not necessarily how it’s going to play out. I’m also not saying that all four of those teams should make it. But, I don’t think any of those four teams should be omitted in favor of BYU, Boise State, Virginia, Duke, Tulane, North Texas or JMU. If that happens, it’s frustrating the purpose of the CFP, and therefore we need to reevaluate the selection criteria (e.g., getting rid of automatic bids to conference champs).

I more meant "what does that mean?" - weighted in what way? Are you just suggesting the "eye test"? I don't see much value in arguing about Duke and Tulane as that is just the current rule and they have to stick to it. I do think that possible nightmare scenario should convince them to either move (faster) to 16, adjust the rules to prevent a Duke situation or just pick the 12 best teams without any rules.

Let’s take Notre Dame as an example, as I think they’re the second best team in the country. Nobody wants to play them, I’m sure. I’d guess that Vegas would have them as 10+ point favorites against Duke or Tulane, and their analysis is certainly data driven. So, what I’m saying is that there are statistical models out there that perform pretty decent valuations.

 

[Jayded]

Does Duke winning allow Miami to get in as an at large? Or is there a rule that prevents taking a team from a conference unless that conference champ is also going?

Duke has nothing to do with Miami. It's essentially the Tulane vs N. Texas winner for a spot and then either UVA, Duke, JMU, Troy, Boise, or UNLV for the other spot. Obviously Troy isn't getting it if they upset JMU. UVA would get it if they win. If Duke and JMU win, JMU likely gets it.

If we assume Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech, UGA, Ole Miss, A&M, and Oklahoma are locks that leaves 2 spots for Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, and Miami. Maybe you can include Texas or Vanderbilt but they have almost no shot at getting in. If Alabama and BYU win this weekend then ND and Miami would be out.

I guess there could be some intrigue if Georgia beats Alabama and we think Miami could jump Alabama after their 3rd loss.

Overall agree. I do think OU is more bubble than others think though. That close LSU game might flip them from a home game to away. I don’t think it happens, but I’d also not be completely surprised if they don’t flip ND and OU with that LSU result. OU clearly has the better win, but they and Ole Miss have some weird possibilities coming this week.

Texas Tech also gets an odd pass if they lose a 2nd game. The committee says they won’t punish those sorts of title game losses, but in this year if they lose, do they default make it in at the expense of a Bama/ND/Miami? Probably, but I’m surprised it’s not as debated as it could be.

I think unless BYU wins, the OU/ND/Bama/Miami area is where all this debate lands. Miami loves to point to ND, but I think they have some argument to make against the SEC teams as well. Could get really interesting if Bama loses to Georgia - do they put ND and Miami in and leave out Bama?

 

[Moe.]

@Jayded ESPN has ND and Miami at 13 and 14 for SOR - not sure where you see it as way worse for Miami. SOS is in the 40s for both and FPI has ND 3 and Miami 7. I agree the metrics favor ND (as well as the eye test) but it’s a lot closer on paper than it was a few weeks ago.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Texas should have beaten Florida.

Such a bad loss. I knew it was going to happen, too. Gainseville is a tough spot to play but that's no excuse. UT should have won by 2 TDs. Not that it matters, but if those teams played now they would crush the Gators.

Probably but in this strange rush to defend Texas as playoff worthy due to their sterling wins - which are great, no doubt - they crapped the bed thrice and one of those failures was to a team that fired it's coach when leaves were still on trees. They can only blame themselves for this one.

Losing to Ohio State in Columbus is crapping the bed?

I'm good with penalizing Texas for losing. just in the future let's rank the power conference teams on W-L records only and use SOS for tiebreakers. And let's not complain when they all play 3 games against FCS, MAC, and CUSA teams because that's what they should do.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think the committee really handcuffs themselves by releasing these rankings weekly. If they just waited until after all the conference title games were complete, they could make up whatever criteria they think make sense to get the most deserving teams in and could react to upsets and how they impact the overall field.

The way it works now is they come up with and have to justify certain criteria for things like head to head, good wins, bad losses, records, schedule strength, etc early on and then get stuck to that line of thinking (and previous week rankings) going forward.

Just let the networks do bracketology projections every week and then simply release the official ranking and playoff brackets once after everything is done. You only have to explain your reasoning once and don’t have to backtrack on any earlier rankings.

For example, aside from another ND loss, what would it have taken for the committee to change their rankings to move Miami ahead of ND in their final rankings this week? There’s no way (IMO) they’d be able to justify a switch of those two at this point since they made the decision to put ND higher than Miami a few weeks ago. My conspiracy thinking is this is also why they moved Alabama below ND and have BYU higher than Miami, so they can explain why h2h doesn’t matter for ND/UM. If they didn’t have to do rankings until the end, it would have been “easier” on the commitee to move Miami ahead if they felt them more deserving (I’m not saying they are/aren’t, just that the committee would have more flexibility).

The committee claims if Miami is in the same tier as ND, then head to head will come into play. Miami has to be in the same tier tomorrow. They performed better in the common opponents argument.

They were in the same tier last week per the committee and ranked where they were. To change that now would be to admit a sudden drastic change if they weren’t outright saying that last week. This is where I’d agree with them tipping their hand being a wrinkle.

I will say this, since I’ve run the math. If you only count head to head, there is an argument. The committee ranking them in the same tier and one as 9 while the other is 12 says it’s more than that to them thus far. I can tell you the computers clearly favor ND. I can tell you ND’s SOS is better than Miami’s. I can also tell you Miami’s SOR is far worse than ND and really even negative in doing the math. Those Louisville and SMU losses really hurt Miami in that category and it’s worse when you add SOS into the mix. It’ll come down to the weighting.

I’d also say Miami didn’t perform better in the common opponents argument if you watch the games. Both blew all of those teams out and ND rested starters while Miami kept them in and the committee knows that. Both teams ended the season with point differentials of 24+ ppg. It’s really a H2H one game vs a season long SOS + SOR debate. So be it if ND loses that. They made their own bed.

Do we get to add the "what ifs" to every other top 20 team too?

You have 10-2 Miami vs 10-2 Notre Dame. Miami has worse losses no doubt. Miami has a H2H win over Notre Dame. That counts way more than anything else including pulling starters here or there, running up the score, or whaever other nonsense occurred against Pitt or Stanford type teams. We aren't comparing 8-4 Miami to 11-1 Notre Dame here.

 

[General Malaise]

I feel like this keeps coming up, but curious what others would say - is the playoffs about getting the most deserving teams or the best teams?

Obviously the answer is both in an ideal world. But with increased parity, we are likely to see more years like this where you have a BYU team screaming deserving and teams like Texas trying to scream best.

The question of desert depends on the purpose of the thing we’re talking about. In this case, it’s the playoffs for the national championship, which is supposed to determine the best team. So, best = most deserving, and thus the system has failed if the selection criteria is not weighted towards teams like Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, and Texas.

How does this math work?

He inquired about how the system should work, not necessarily how it’s going to play out. I’m also not saying that all four of those teams should make it. But, I don’t think any of those four teams should be omitted in favor of BYU, Boise State, Virginia, Duke, Tulane, North Texas or JMU. If that happens, it’s frustrating the purpose of the CFP, and therefore we need to reevaluate the selection criteria (e.g., getting rid of automatic bids to conference champs).

I more meant "what does that mean?" - weighted in what way? Are you just suggesting the "eye test"? I don't see much value in arguing about Duke and Tulane as that is just the current rule and they have to stick to it. I do think that possible nightmare scenario should convince them to either move (faster) to 16, adjust the rules to prevent a Duke situation or just pick the 12 best teams without any rules.

The rules are adjusted to prevent a Duke situation. JMU is about to show us that if Duke wins.

That's not the adjustment I would be talking about. I would skip them altogether, everything else being equal.

It's coming when there is a P2. I mean when we will end up with Missouri and Tennessee in a 16-team bracket because they lost to good teams and a 10-2 Miami lost to mediocre teams. This whole thing is beyond stupid.

Conferences need to be small enough to have a round robin, or use divisions. The winners of the round robins should be in the playoffs. At least we are comparing apples to apples on the schedules. Don't penalize teams for losing P4 OOC games but reward teams for winning them. We want more Ohio State vs Texas games not less. And we don't need to be arguing that 11-1 A&M and their crap schedule vs 9-3 Texas or 11-1 BYU with entirely different schedules.

It'll be an NFL lite format soon enough. It can't keep going on like this. This is just madness.

Just not sure how to make the math work though I would suggest a relegation/promotion method like the soccers do.

 

[General Malaise]

Texas should have beaten Florida.

Such a bad loss. I knew it was going to happen, too. Gainseville is a tough spot to play but that's no excuse. UT should have won by 2 TDs. Not that it matters, but if those teams played now they would crush the Gators.

Probably but in this strange rush to defend Texas as playoff worthy due to their sterling wins - which are great, no doubt - they crapped the bed thrice and one of those failures was to a team that fired it's coach when leaves were still on trees. They can only blame themselves for this one.

Losing to Ohio State in Columbus is crapping the bed?

I'm good with penalizing Texas for losing. just in the future let's rank the power conference teams on W-L records only and use SOS for tiebreakers. And let's not complain when they all play 3 games against FCS, MAC, and CUSA teams because that's what they should do.

No, losing to Ohio State in Columbus is not crapping the bed. But losing to Florida is and I'm pretty sure you comprehend that.

I think you're on the right track with 2 conferences and divisions based on geography. What we have now is beyond stupid.

Progress is built out of learning from mistakes made in the past. Even if Oregon got screwed out of the BCS Championship game 24 years ago......I believe one day, we will get it right.

 

[Jayded]

@Jayded ESPN has ND and Miami at 13 and 14 for SOR - not sure where you see it as way worse for Miami. SOS is in the 40s for both and FPI has ND 3 and Miami 7. I agree the metrics favor ND (as well as the eye test) but it’s a lot closer on paper than it was a few weeks ago.

I computed them myself. I took a few of the ratings across the various services and built a model to compare the two teams.

Flat SOR is taking into account an average top 25 team. I built a direct model that compares flat out how they performed (a Win Loss Context if you will) - how you performed vs. how you should have.

I ran a series of simulations and I'd say the model outright told me weighting should be like this : 35% SOS, 35% SOR/Win Context, 20% H2H, 10% Dominance/Point Margin. So the math told me, again with point margin so close, it's really a weighting difference of SOS/SOR vs. H2H. ND's true best case is the SOR debate. Miami being at home as #2 losing to an unranked Louisville is damning to their SOR. Even if they'd only have lost that game, their SOR would still likely compute lower than ND's. Losing to a soon-to-be-unranked again SMU is the death knell to the computers for Miami. H2H would have to be >50% weighting for them to offset what the computers/math say in comparing ND and Miami. It could still happen, but I poked at it out of personal curiosity.

 

[Jayded]

I think the committee really handcuffs themselves by releasing these rankings weekly. If they just waited until after all the conference title games were complete, they could make up whatever criteria they think make sense to get the most deserving teams in and could react to upsets and how they impact the overall field.

The way it works now is they come up with and have to justify certain criteria for things like head to head, good wins, bad losses, records, schedule strength, etc early on and then get stuck to that line of thinking (and previous week rankings) going forward.

Just let the networks do bracketology projections every week and then simply release the official ranking and playoff brackets once after everything is done. You only have to explain your reasoning once and don’t have to backtrack on any earlier rankings.

For example, aside from another ND loss, what would it have taken for the committee to change their rankings to move Miami ahead of ND in their final rankings this week? There’s no way (IMO) they’d be able to justify a switch of those two at this point since they made the decision to put ND higher than Miami a few weeks ago. My conspiracy thinking is this is also why they moved Alabama below ND and have BYU higher than Miami, so they can explain why h2h doesn’t matter for ND/UM. If they didn’t have to do rankings until the end, it would have been “easier” on the commitee to move Miami ahead if they felt them more deserving (I’m not saying they are/aren’t, just that the committee would have more flexibility).

The committee claims if Miami is in the same tier as ND, then head to head will come into play. Miami has to be in the same tier tomorrow. They performed better in the common opponents argument.

They were in the same tier last week per the committee and ranked where they were. To change that now would be to admit a sudden drastic change if they weren’t outright saying that last week. This is where I’d agree with them tipping their hand being a wrinkle.

I will say this, since I’ve run the math. If you only count head to head, there is an argument. The committee ranking them in the same tier and one as 9 while the other is 12 says it’s more than that to them thus far. I can tell you the computers clearly favor ND. I can tell you ND’s SOS is better than Miami’s. I can also tell you Miami’s SOR is far worse than ND and really even negative in doing the math. Those Louisville and SMU losses really hurt Miami in that category and it’s worse when you add SOS into the mix. It’ll come down to the weighting.

I’d also say Miami didn’t perform better in the common opponents argument if you watch the games. Both blew all of those teams out and ND rested starters while Miami kept them in and the committee knows that. Both teams ended the season with point differentials of 24+ ppg. It’s really a H2H one game vs a season long SOS + SOR debate. So be it if ND loses that. They made their own bed.

Do we get to add the "what ifs" to every other top 20 team too?

You have 10-2 Miami vs 10-2 Notre Dame. Miami has worse losses no doubt. Miami has a H2H win over Notre Dame. That counts way more than anything else including pulling starters here or there, running up the score, or whaever other nonsense occurred against Pitt or Stanford type teams. We aren't comparing 8-4 Miami to 11-1 Notre Dame here.

Correct. It's whether Miami's win by 3 points offsets their losing to two unranked teams. Computers punish them heavily for the latter. You have to say that one game matters more than the entire season's performance between the two. It's ok if that happens, again, because ND made its bed. But that's what'd need to happen for them to make that change.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Texas should have beaten Florida.

Such a bad loss. I knew it was going to happen, too. Gainseville is a tough spot to play but that's no excuse. UT should have won by 2 TDs. Not that it matters, but if those teams played now they would crush the Gators.

Probably but in this strange rush to defend Texas as playoff worthy due to their sterling wins - which are great, no doubt - they crapped the bed thrice and one of those failures was to a team that fired it's coach when leaves were still on trees. They can only blame themselves for this one.

Losing to Ohio State in Columbus is crapping the bed?

I'm good with penalizing Texas for losing. just in the future let's rank the power conference teams on W-L records only and use SOS for tiebreakers. And let's not complain when they all play 3 games against FCS, MAC, and CUSA teams because that's what they should do.

No, losing to Ohio State in Columbus is not crapping the bed. But losing to Florida is and I'm pretty sure you comprehend that.

I think you're on the right track with 2 conferences and divisions based on geography. What we have now is beyond stupid.

Progress is built out of learning from mistakes made in the past. Even if Oregon got screwed out of the BCS Championship game 24 years ago......I believe one day, we will get it right.

Yeah the Florida loss is bad. I think beating both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt offsets that and they have the H2H over A&M.

If Texas had played Bowling Green instead of Ohio State and was 10-2 they would be a lock and would be ranked over A&M. This nonsense is encouraging the Texas vs Bowling Green games.

 

[Yo Mama]

I think the committee really handcuffs themselves by releasing these rankings weekly. If they just waited until after all the conference title games were complete, they could make up whatever criteria they think make sense to get the most deserving teams in and could react to upsets and how they impact the overall field.

The way it works now is they come up with and have to justify certain criteria for things like head to head, good wins, bad losses, records, schedule strength, etc early on and then get stuck to that line of thinking (and previous week rankings) going forward.

Just let the networks do bracketology projections every week and then simply release the official ranking and playoff brackets once after everything is done. You only have to explain your reasoning once and don’t have to backtrack on any earlier rankings.

For example, aside from another ND loss, what would it have taken for the committee to change their rankings to move Miami ahead of ND in their final rankings this week? There’s no way (IMO) they’d be able to justify a switch of those two at this point since they made the decision to put ND higher than Miami a few weeks ago. My conspiracy thinking is this is also why they moved Alabama below ND and have BYU higher than Miami, so they can explain why h2h doesn’t matter for ND/UM. If they didn’t have to do rankings until the end, it would have been “easier” on the commitee to move Miami ahead if they felt them more deserving (I’m not saying they are/aren’t, just that the committee would have more flexibility).

The committee claims if Miami is in the same tier as ND, then head to head will come into play. Miami has to be in the same tier tomorrow. They performed better in the common opponents argument.

They were in the same tier last week per the committee and ranked where they were. To change that now would be to admit a sudden drastic change if they weren’t outright saying that last week. This is where I’d agree with them tipping their hand being a wrinkle.

I will say this, since I’ve run the math. If you only count head to head, there is an argument. The committee ranking them in the same tier and one as 9 while the other is 12 says it’s more than that to them thus far. I can tell you the computers clearly favor ND. I can tell you ND’s SOS is better than Miami’s. I can also tell you Miami’s SOR is far worse than ND and really even negative in doing the math. Those Louisville and SMU losses really hurt Miami in that category and it’s worse when you add SOS into the mix. It’ll come down to the weighting.

I’d also say Miami didn’t perform better in the common opponents argument if you watch the games. Both blew all of those teams out and ND rested starters while Miami kept them in and the committee knows that. Both teams ended the season with point differentials of 24+ ppg. It’s really a H2H one game vs a season long SOS + SOR debate. So be it if ND loses that. They made their own bed.

Do we get to add the "what ifs" to every other top 20 team too?

You have 10-2 Miami vs 10-2 Notre Dame. Miami has worse losses no doubt. Miami has a H2H win over Notre Dame. That counts way more than anything else including pulling starters here or there, running up the score, or whaever other nonsense occurred against Pitt or Stanford type teams. We aren't comparing 8-4 Miami to 11-1 Notre Dame here.

Correct. It's whether Miami's win by 3 points offsets their losing to two unranked teams. Computers punish them heavily for the latter. You have to say that one game matters more than the entire season's performance between the two. It's ok if that happens, again, because ND made its bed. But that's what'd need to happen for them to make that change.

Does Miami being a good team hurt them in this comparison though, since it doesn’t count as a bad loss for Notre Dame? That’s where the head to head result should count more than other games.

 

[Jayded]

I think the committee really handcuffs themselves by releasing these rankings weekly. If they just waited until after all the conference title games were complete, they could make up whatever criteria they think make sense to get the most deserving teams in and could react to upsets and how they impact the overall field.

The way it works now is they come up with and have to justify certain criteria for things like head to head, good wins, bad losses, records, schedule strength, etc early on and then get stuck to that line of thinking (and previous week rankings) going forward.

Just let the networks do bracketology projections every week and then simply release the official ranking and playoff brackets once after everything is done. You only have to explain your reasoning once and don’t have to backtrack on any earlier rankings.

For example, aside from another ND loss, what would it have taken for the committee to change their rankings to move Miami ahead of ND in their final rankings this week? There’s no way (IMO) they’d be able to justify a switch of those two at this point since they made the decision to put ND higher than Miami a few weeks ago. My conspiracy thinking is this is also why they moved Alabama below ND and have BYU higher than Miami, so they can explain why h2h doesn’t matter for ND/UM. If they didn’t have to do rankings until the end, it would have been “easier” on the commitee to move Miami ahead if they felt them more deserving (I’m not saying they are/aren’t, just that the committee would have more flexibility).

The committee claims if Miami is in the same tier as ND, then head to head will come into play. Miami has to be in the same tier tomorrow. They performed better in the common opponents argument.

They were in the same tier last week per the committee and ranked where they were. To change that now would be to admit a sudden drastic change if they weren’t outright saying that last week. This is where I’d agree with them tipping their hand being a wrinkle.

I will say this, since I’ve run the math. If you only count head to head, there is an argument. The committee ranking them in the same tier and one as 9 while the other is 12 says it’s more than that to them thus far. I can tell you the computers clearly favor ND. I can tell you ND’s SOS is better than Miami’s. I can also tell you Miami’s SOR is far worse than ND and really even negative in doing the math. Those Louisville and SMU losses really hurt Miami in that category and it’s worse when you add SOS into the mix. It’ll come down to the weighting.

I’d also say Miami didn’t perform better in the common opponents argument if you watch the games. Both blew all of those teams out and ND rested starters while Miami kept them in and the committee knows that. Both teams ended the season with point differentials of 24+ ppg. It’s really a H2H one game vs a season long SOS + SOR debate. So be it if ND loses that. They made their own bed.

Do we get to add the "what ifs" to every other top 20 team too?

You have 10-2 Miami vs 10-2 Notre Dame. Miami has worse losses no doubt. Miami has a H2H win over Notre Dame. That counts way more than anything else including pulling starters here or there, running up the score, or whaever other nonsense occurred against Pitt or Stanford type teams. We aren't comparing 8-4 Miami to 11-1 Notre Dame here.

Correct. It's whether Miami's win by 3 points offsets their losing to two unranked teams. Computers punish them heavily for the latter. You have to say that one game matters more than the entire season's performance between the two. It's ok if that happens, again, because ND made its bed. But that's what'd need to happen for them to make that change.

Does Miami being a good team hurt them in this comparison though, since it doesn’t count as a bad loss for Notre Dame? That’s where the head to head result should count more than other games.

I would say the computers say that game is one data point out of 12. If you say H2H carries 40% weight, you’d be saying it’s 7 times more important than any other game on the schedule.

Computers say 20% is fair so it does stand out but doesn’t overvalue one data point across a season. Even if you said 40% was fair, ND nudges them out mathematically. H2H would have to be more than 50% of what matters, which tells you ND is mathematically leading enough in the other categories to offset H2H in models where it doesn’t hold a predominance of the evidence weighting.

Don’t shoot the messenger, as I didn’t do this in my models I tested, but home field advantage also gets factored in on most of them. Losing at home is worse than losing on the road. Losing as ranked to unranked is bad. Compounding those gets bad fast. But HFA in most models is set to 2 or 3 points. Miami retains its W, but the margin for the computers says the win was within the margin of error of HFA.

 

[General Malaise]

Texas should have beaten Florida.

Such a bad loss. I knew it was going to happen, too. Gainseville is a tough spot to play but that's no excuse. UT should have won by 2 TDs. Not that it matters, but if those teams played now they would crush the Gators.

Probably but in this strange rush to defend Texas as playoff worthy due to their sterling wins - which are great, no doubt - they crapped the bed thrice and one of those failures was to a team that fired it's coach when leaves were still on trees. They can only blame themselves for this one.

Losing to Ohio State in Columbus is crapping the bed?

I'm good with penalizing Texas for losing. just in the future let's rank the power conference teams on W-L records only and use SOS for tiebreakers. And let's not complain when they all play 3 games against FCS, MAC, and CUSA teams because that's what they should do.

No, losing to Ohio State in Columbus is not crapping the bed. But losing to Florida is and I'm pretty sure you comprehend that.

I think you're on the right track with 2 conferences and divisions based on geography. What we have now is beyond stupid.

Progress is built out of learning from mistakes made in the past. Even if Oregon got screwed out of the BCS Championship game 24 years ago......I believe one day, we will get it right.

Yeah the Florida loss is bad. I think beating both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt offsets that and they have the H2H over A&M.

If Texas had played Bowling Green instead of Ohio State and was 10-2 they would be a lock and would be ranked over A&M. This nonsense is encouraging the Texas vs Bowling Green games.

I know. It's also probably likely that this game with Ohio State was scheduled long before we descended into more chaos.

I see you too read Stewart Mandel. He used BG as his example.

 

[Moe.]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

I am really surprised there isn't more talk of Texas jumping OU or OU getting put behind Notre Dame. OU's offense is atrocious, like really really bad. I wouldn't complain at all if OU ended up on the outside looking in.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

@Jayded ESPN has ND and Miami at 13 and 14 for SOR - not sure where you see it as way worse for Miami. SOS is in the 40s for both and FPI has ND 3 and Miami 7. I agree the metrics favor ND (as well as the eye test) but it’s a lot closer on paper than it was a few weeks ago.

I computed them myself. I took a few of the ratings across the various services and built a model to compare the two teams.

Flat SOR is taking into account an average top 25 team. I built a direct model that compares flat out how they performed (a Win Loss Context if you will) - how you performed vs. how you should have.

I ran a series of simulations and I'd say the model outright told me weighting should be like this : 35% SOS, 35% SOR/Win Context, 20% H2H, 10% Dominance/Point Margin. So the math told me, again with point margin so close, it's really a weighting difference of SOS/SOR vs. H2H. ND's true best case is the SOR debate. Miami being at home as #2 losing to an unranked Louisville is damning to their SOR. Even if they'd only have lost that game, their SOR would still likely compute lower than ND's. Losing to a soon-to-be-unranked again SMU is the death knell to the computers for Miami. H2H would have to be >50% weighting for them to offset what the computers/math say in comparing ND and Miami. It could still happen, but I poked at it out of personal curiosity.

Sounds like you created your own set of stats, which is cool. Just don't label it as one of the already known metrics. Call it something else. What you did is not the SOR references by Moe

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

I am really surprised there isn't more talk of Texas jumping OU or OU getting put behind Notre Dame. OU's offense is atrocious, like really really bad. I wouldn't complain at all if OU ended up on the outside looking in.

We should definitely reward Alabama for that last minute win against bowl ineligible Auburn!

 

[NutterButter]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

 

[NutterButter]

I personally find all this fascinating. I never thought I'd be excited about a texas tech/byu game, but as a nd fan, i suddenly am. go red raiders.

 

[Instinctive]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

I am really surprised there isn't more talk of Texas jumping OU or OU getting put behind Notre Dame. OU's offense is atrocious, like really really bad. I wouldn't complain at all if OU ended up on the outside looking in.

It's so bad.

My only hope is by the time these games are played, Mateer's hand is actually healed.

Still doesn't magically make an OL appear though.

It's awful.

 

[Instinctive]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

I have to assume a loss in a conference championship game to another playoff team can't hurt them. They outright said so last year.

 

[WDIK2]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

That's wild. Not that they don't have a chance to beat Georgia and play their way in, just that the odds are so high. +1120 to not make the playoffs. Do people think they get in even with a loss? Is Georgia resting starters? An Alabama win would probably put 5 SEC teams in the playoffs.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Oregon OC taking the Kentucky job

 

[NutterButter]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

I have to assume a loss in a conference championship game to another playoff team can't hurt them. They outright said so last year.

Interesting. Maybe that makes sense then. I can't see how they'd jump ND this week considering they struggled with Auburn. And there's still the scenario where Georgia, BYU and Virginia win; just one upset. You'd have to move them out at that point right? Someone tell me the odds of that parlay hitting. Could they still jump ND even though they lost? Fascinating stuff.

 

[Moe.]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

I have to assume a loss in a conference championship game to another playoff team can't hurt them. They outright said so last year.

Interesting. Maybe that makes sense then. I can't see how they'd jump ND this week considering they struggled with Auburn. And there's still the scenario where Georgia, BYU and Virginia win; just one upset. You'd have to move them out at that point right? Someone tell me the odds of that parlay hitting. Could they still jump ND even though they lost? Fascinating stuff.

That’s why I assume they are going to have them jump ND tomorrow - that way it’s already done heading into conference championship weekend, and ND is that last team on the right side of the bubble. If your proposed parlay hits then ND is the odd one out.

Tomorrow they can say “Bama is the #1 seed in the SEC so we felt like their overall body of work warranted the move..” or some dumb bs. They’ll say whatever is necessary to fit the narrative they want.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

I have to assume a loss in a conference championship game to another playoff team can't hurt them. They outright said so last year.

Interesting. Maybe that makes sense then. I can't see how they'd jump ND this week considering they struggled with Auburn. And there's still the scenario where Georgia, BYU and Virginia win; just one upset. You'd have to move them out at that point right? Someone tell me the odds of that parlay hitting. Could they still jump ND even though they lost? Fascinating stuff.

ESPN gets involved and either Oklahoma or Texas Tech is screwed. Got to have Alabama and Notre Dame for ratings.

 

[Jayded]

Penn state closing in on BYU’s Sitake?

That certainly could be a distraction that further helps Tech (and bubble teams).

 

[fasteddie_21]

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

 

[Chadstroma]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

I am really surprised there isn't more talk of Texas jumping OU or OU getting put behind Notre Dame. OU's offense is atrocious, like really really bad. I wouldn't complain at all if OU ended up on the outside looking in.

I was liking what I was seeing from OU early. I am not sure what went wrong with Mateer. I would normally wonder if he was just still not right after the injury but some of those throws were just plain bad decisions and whether he was not physically good or not did not matter. If Mateer is on then that offense can move... when he isn't, it looks bad.

 

[Chadstroma]

I went up stream a bit to see if it was discussed since it is several hours old info and didn't see anything..

Pat Fitzgerald hired by Michigan State. I think that is a great hire for them. I can not say I followed every detail but I did keep my eye on the whole thing and it just seemed Fitzgerald got a raw deal out of the scandal. I think he is a good coach... better than what Michigan State could normally get so a win/win for both.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

UVA, Duke, or JMU (or MWC champion) has to be a lock along with Tulane or N. Texas. The top 5 conference champions are automatic bids. So you have 1 spot for BYU, ND, or Miami.

 

[Chadstroma]

Oregon OC taking the Kentucky job

Will Stein. Expected hiring and expected that he will stay on through the playoffs.

 

[culdeus]

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

So TTU gets the 5 seed, who is 6?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

So TTU gets the 5 seed, who is 6?

We will see what committee puts out tomorrow but will probably be:
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Texas A&M?
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Alabama
BYU
Miami
Texas
Vanderbilt
Utah
Virginia

If UGA and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and TT 4th. Oregon would be 5th and then A&M and Ole Miss 6 and 7. I guess we have no idea where A&M will drop to this week.

If UGA and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and maybe Oregon 4th unless they don't want three B1G teams getting byes. Alabama or ND would probably fall out since BYU gets a spot.

If Alabama and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, TT 3rd, and Alabama 4th with Georgia and Oregon 5 and 6 and A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8.

If Alabama and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, Alabama 3rd, and Georgia, TT and Oregon 4 through 6 with A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8. Notre Dame is pretty much gone in this scenario unless ESPN forces them over Oklahoma.

I guess we don't know if Ole Miss will get dropped with Kiffin leaving either.

In every scenario, UVA is 11 and Tulane/NT 12 or Tulane/NT 11 with JMU 12 I believe. Duke has no shot.

 

[fasteddie_21]

I agree with you

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

So TTU gets the 5 seed, who is 6?

We will see what committee puts out tomorrow but will probably be:
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Texas A&M?
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Alabama
BYU
Miami
Texas
Vanderbilt
Utah
Virginia

If UGA and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and TT 4th. Oregon would be 5th and then A&M and Ole Miss 6 and 7. I guess we have no idea where A&M will drop to this week.

If UGA and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and maybe Oregon 4th unless they don't want three B1G teams getting byes. Alabama or ND would probably fall out since BYU gets a spot.

If Alabama and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, TT 3rd, and Alabama 4th with Georgia and Oregon 5 and 6 and A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8.

If Alabama and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, Alabama 3rd, and Georgia, TT and Oregon 4 through 6 with A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8. Notre Dame is pretty much gone in this scenario unless ESPN forces them over Oklahoma.

I guess we don't know if Ole Miss will get dropped with Kiffin leaving either.

In every scenario, UVA is 11 and Tulane/NT 12 or Tulane/NT 11 with JMU 12 I believe. Duke has no shot,

My only question is moving Alabama from…10(?) all the way to 4 with one win? Seems…over-the-top, no?

 

[NutterButter]

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

So TTU gets the 5 seed, who is 6?

We will see what committee puts out tomorrow but will probably be:
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Texas A&M?
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Alabama
BYU
Miami
Texas
Vanderbilt
Utah
Virginia

If UGA and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and TT 4th. Oregon would be 5th and then A&M and Ole Miss 6 and 7. I guess we have no idea where A&M will drop to this week.

If UGA and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and maybe Oregon 4th unless they don't want three B1G teams getting byes. Alabama or ND would probably fall out since BYU gets a spot.

If Alabama and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, TT 3rd, and Alabama 4th with Georgia and Oregon 5 and 6 and A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8.

If Alabama and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, Alabama 3rd, and Georgia, TT and Oregon 4 through 6 with A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8. Notre Dame is pretty much gone in this scenario unless ESPN forces them over Oklahoma.

I guess we don't know if Ole Miss will get dropped with Kiffin leaving either.

In every scenario, UVA is 11 and Tulane/NT 12 or Tulane/NT 11 with JMU 12 I believe. Duke has no shot.

I assume Tulane/NT 11 with JMU is b/c Duke wins. I thought in that case there's still just one group of 5 team. Doesn't the fact that one of the conference winnners is a group of 5 satisfy the group of 5 member requirement?

 

[Instinctive]

Locks for Bye, win or lose:
tOSU
Indiana

Bye if they win:
Georgia
Texas Tech

Locks for a seat:
tOSU
Indiana
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Oregon
TAMU
Ole Miss
Oklahoma (offense be damned)
1 of Tulane/NT/JMU

There are 2 seats at the table open. Zero chance the SEC runner-up is left out due to a bonus game. TTU is in win or lose.

Then it’s some mix of the following based on results this weekend:

Virginia (win and in)
BYU (win and in)
JMU (win & Duke win over Virginia…then maybe)
UNLV (same boat as JMU)
Notre Dame (TTU win or Duke win, then maybe)
Miami (same as ND. A lot depends on this week’s rankings)
————————-

The end.


You might try to argue differently but you’re just wrong. Those are the only possibilities.

So TTU gets the 5 seed, who is 6?

We will see what committee puts out tomorrow but will probably be:
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Texas A&M?
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Alabama
BYU
Miami
Texas
Vanderbilt
Utah
Virginia

If UGA and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and TT 4th. Oregon would be 5th and then A&M and Ole Miss 6 and 7. I guess we have no idea where A&M will drop to this week.

If UGA and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, Georgia 2nd, B1G loser 3rd and maybe Oregon 4th unless they don't want three B1G teams getting byes. Alabama or ND would probably fall out since BYU gets a spot.

If Alabama and TT win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, TT 3rd, and Alabama 4th with Georgia and Oregon 5 and 6 and A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8.

If Alabama and BYU win, the final rankings should have B1G champion first, B1G loser 2nd, Alabama 3rd, and Georgia, TT and Oregon 4 through 6 with A&M and Ole Miss 7 and 8. Notre Dame is pretty much gone in this scenario unless ESPN forces them over Oklahoma.

I guess we don't know if Ole Miss will get dropped with Kiffin leaving either.

In every scenario, UVA is 11 and Tulane/NT 12 or Tulane/NT 11 with JMU 12 I believe. Duke has no shot.

I assume Tulane/NT 11 with JMU is b/c Duke wins. I thought in that case there's still just one group of 5 team. Doesn't the fact that one of the conference winnners is a group of 5 satisfy the group of 5 member requirement?

I don't think there's a group of 5 member requirement per se. It's just the five highest ranked conference champions.

 

[crushedspirit]

If Duke and JMU win, the only ACC hope will be Miami with an at-large bid since both JMU and the American Conf winner would go. Duke isn't going in with 5 losses, including those vs Tulane and UConn.

There are some assumptions that all P4 conf champs get an auto bid in, but that's not written in the rules. Two playoff spots can definitely come from two of the G5 conf champs.

 

[bagger]

I am so sick of them pretending Miami is in as ACC champ. I appreciate that the broadcast points it out but they are being so dumb about it. Just put ACC Champ there and admit to everyone you have Miami outside looking in.

The gap in terms of resume between Miami and ND continues to shrink each week to the point where there won't be a material difference between the two on paper. I think the difference in terms of strength of record is like 2 or 3. ND crushes in the eye test, but I think you are going to see more and more discussion about ND over Miami if both teams win next week. The two teams played - why do I need to look at a bunch of esoteric metrics to separate them (this is rhetorical please don't try to answer).

Don't care about either team, but just checking in on this...

Miami beat ND
Both teams have 2 losses
Their resumes aren't THAT different

But ND is a shoe-in and Miami effectively has little shot? Wha.......

Go Ducks

Glad to hear you two are going on the record that ND was robbed of the 1993 national championship. When voters said a ND head to head win over identical record FSU didn't make up for ND losing to the #12 team instead of FSU losing #2 ND.

Given how Miami this year has a pair of losses that are each over 20 ranking spots worse than ND's losses.

I mean it would take an ENORMOUS hypocrite to say Miami should make it in this year based on head to head, but ND didn't deserve the National Championship in 1993 based on head to head.

Wait. Are you comparing decisions made under the BCS era rules and circumstances to that of what might happen under the second year of a brand new system that has rules, circumstances and factors completely different (like night and day different) and then labeling people based on those situations that have no business being compared because of how different they are?

I have a couple follow up questions depending on answer.

I'm saying there is a large group of people who argue against ND regardless, whose "what beats what" changes as needed to argue against ND in whatever the current situation is. It happens year after year.

I'm giving these two credit that they aren't part of that group, and they'd use a consistent set of criteria.

I don't remember or care about 1993. Head to head should matter in 2025. It should be about who you beat not who has the best losses. Miami over ND isn't even a question for me. Miami won the game on the field and both would be 10-2 assuming wins tomorrow. ND has one decent win (USC) which doesn't make up for that loss.

Great, so you'd apply that criteria equally if you did look at 1993 and would say ND was robbed of a national championship.


Glad to have you on board GB.

Yeah nobody cares.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I cannot see a BYU guy in State College at all. We need someone with Penn State ties or at least North East credentials. Could set us back a decade.

 

[crushedspirit]

Ole Miss being dropping out of the playoff picture is a definite scenario. The criteria was set before that if the committee deems a team is a much lesser version of themselves due to circumstances.

Dropping them behind Miami would not shock me at all. Committee could avoid the H2H debate between ND/Miami by placing both in playoff bracket positions.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Lets have conferences where every team plays every other team. Champions to the playoff. Eliminate the subjective committee. If a team loses a coach or player it just plays out.

 

[Phil Elliott]

With the obvious public relations collaboration (around Kiffin) by Sexton, CAA,ESPN and media I wonder if the next big consolidation in college sports will be players jumping to play for coaches represented by the same agencies as the players...and eventually the agencies represent/own the entire team, school or even the conferences. The agencies consolidate and each agency gets a representative on the playoff committee.
ETA: Some schools considering investments by Private Equity to help fund NIL.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

I have to assume a loss in a conference championship game to another playoff team can't hurt them. They outright said so last year.

Interesting. Maybe that makes sense then. I can't see how they'd jump ND this week considering they struggled with Auburn. And there's still the scenario where Georgia, BYU and Virginia win; just one upset. You'd have to move them out at that point right? Someone tell me the odds of that parlay hitting. Could they still jump ND even though they lost? Fascinating stuff.

That’s why I assume they are going to have them jump ND tomorrow - that way it’s already done heading into conference championship weekend, and ND is that last team on the right side of the bubble. If your proposed parlay hits then ND is the odd one out.

Tomorrow they can say “Bama is the #1 seed in the SEC so we felt like their overall body of work warranted the move..” or some dumb bs. They’ll say whatever is necessary to fit the narrative they want.

For the sake of argument, if Bama gets boat raced they have to be out, though, right? They can say all they want they won't penalize a team for losing the Championship, but I don't see how you could logically put them in if they lose 40-0 or something crazy like that.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Bama is now -3000 to make the playoffs. That makes me think they'll be ahead of ND tomorrow, and that ND has the most to lose in the event of a BYU upset.

How does that make sense? Does a loss in the sec championship not hurt them? They're not even a favorite to win that game.

I have to assume a loss in a conference championship game to another playoff team can't hurt them. They outright said so last year.

Interesting. Maybe that makes sense then. I can't see how they'd jump ND this week considering they struggled with Auburn. And there's still the scenario where Georgia, BYU and Virginia win; just one upset. You'd have to move them out at that point right? Someone tell me the odds of that parlay hitting. Could they still jump ND even though they lost? Fascinating stuff.

That’s why I assume they are going to have them jump ND tomorrow - that way it’s already done heading into conference championship weekend, and ND is that last team on the right side of the bubble. If your proposed parlay hits then ND is the odd one out.

Tomorrow they can say “Bama is the #1 seed in the SEC so we felt like their overall body of work warranted the move..” or some dumb bs. They’ll say whatever is necessary to fit the narrative they want.

For the sake of argument, if Bama gets boat raced they have to be out, though, right? They can say all they want they won't penalize a team for losing the Championship, but I don't see how you could logically put them in if they lose 40-0 or something crazy like that.

They should be out this year with any loss to Georgia because it's their 3rd loss and one is to FSU. Aren't we using this same logic to exclude Texas?