22 RBs being taken before Deuce (1 Viewer)

[Ilov80s]

I am just am blown away by Deuce's ranking and ADP this year. According to AntSports, he is going in the late 4th and is on average the 23rd back taken. Deuce finished 14th in ppg last year. Sure, Bush heated up towards the end of the year, but so did Deuce: Deuce averaged 14.6 ppg in the final 8 games vs 11 ppg over the first 9 games. Plus he is returning to the same offense, with all the keep pieces in place. Final thing to think about, experts always say it takes 2 years to fully recover from a major knee injury- well Deuce should now be 100% and could be even more explosive then last year.

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me. Anytime you can get the starting RB on one of the most potent offenses in the league in the 4th round, you have a steal.

Thoughts?

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I am just am blown away by Deuce's ranking and ADP this year. According to AntSports, he is going in the late 4th and is on average the 23rd back taken. Deuce finished 14th in ppg last year. Sure, Bush heated up towards the end of the year, but so did Deuce: Deuce averaged 14.6 ppg in the final 8 games vs 11 ppg over the first 9 games. Plus he is returning to the same offense, with all the keep pieces in place. Final thing to think about, experts always say it takes 2 years to fully recover from a major knee injury- well Deuce should now be 100% and could be even more explosive then last year.The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me. Anytime you can get the starting RB on one of the most potent offenses in the league in the 4th round, you have a steal.Thoughts?

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB. However, I do agree. He presents great value this year IMO. My strategy this year when I draft from the #1 slot is to take LT, and two stud WR's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If Deuce is available in the 4th round, (which I'm praying for..) I will pounce on Deuce and have a solid RB2 to go along with LT and two Stud WRs.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I think its because owners have had 2 very disappointing yrs with Duece prior to last yr. Plus the writing is on the wall that R Bush is going to get more carries this yr than last yr. I think your a little crazy if you think that a Team is going to produce 2 #1 FF RBs 2 yrs in a row. R Bush is going to become the Full-time back on that team soon.... however, Duece will always be the GL guy as long as hes there.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Man love for Reggie Bush pushes Deuce down. That and everyone getting burned the last couple of years.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think its because owners have had 2 very disappointing yrs with Duece prior to last yr. Plus the writing is on the wall that R Bush is going to get more carries this yr than last yr. I think your a little crazy if you think that a Team is going to produce 2 #1 FF RBs 2 yrs in a row. R Bush is going to become the Full-time back on that team soon.... however, Duece will always be the GL guy as long as hes there.

The Saints did not produce 2 #1 backs last year. When Reggie Bush proves he can run inside, then I'll buy into him cutting into Deuce's carries. I guess I don't buy into Reggie as a RB, but more as an offensive weapon. Deuce was better then Reggie in terms of YPC and 1st downs per rush. Reggie can make the big play, but he struggled last year with consistency- he was stuffed on 14% of his carries- which places him somewhere around 50th among NFL backs. I don't buy into Bush taking away many of Deuce's carries.

 

[shadyridr]

I think its because owners have had 2 very disappointing yrs with Duece prior to last yr. Plus the writing is on the wall that R Bush is going to get more carries this yr than last yr. I think your a little crazy if you think that a Team is going to produce 2 #1 FF RBs 2 yrs in a row. R Bush is going to become the Full-time back on that team soon.... however, Duece will always be the GL guy as long as hes there.

 

[huckyoda]

Lots of downside on Deuce, given the possibility that Bush grabs most of the carries. Limited upside on Deuce - without 100% of the carries it is very unlikely he will crack the top tier.

High downside + low upside = bad pick

 

[Christo]

I am just am blown away by Deuce's ranking and ADP this year. According to AntSports, he is going in the late 4th and is on average the 23rd back taken. Deuce finished 14th in ppg last year. Sure, Bush heated up towards the end of the year, but so did Deuce: Deuce averaged 14.6 ppg in the final 8 games vs 11 ppg over the first 9 games. Plus he is returning to the same offense, with all the keep pieces in place. Final thing to think about, experts always say it takes 2 years to fully recover from a major knee injury- well Deuce should now be 100% and could be even more explosive then last year.

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me. Anytime you can get the starting RB on one of the most potent offenses in the league in the 4th round, you have a steal.

Thoughts?

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB. However, I do agree. He presents great value this year IMO. My strategy this year when I draft from the #1 slot is to take LT, and two stud WR's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If Deuce is available in the 4th round, (which I'm praying for..) I will pounce on Deuce and have a solid RB2 to go along with LT and two Stud WRs.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR. There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

 

[Christo]

When Reggie Bush proves he can run inside, then I'll buy into him cutting into Deuce's carries.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think its because owners have had 2 very disappointing yrs with Duece prior to last yr. Plus the writing is on the wall that R Bush is going to get more carries this yr than last yr. I think your a little crazy if you think that a Team is going to produce 2 #1 FF RBs 2 yrs in a row. R Bush is going to become the Full-time back on that team soon.... however, Duece will always be the GL guy as long as hes there.

I don't think thats really accurate. It seems that both players are used at the GL- it just depends on the package that NO wants to use. Sometimes they power it in with Deuce, other times they attempt to get Bush outside or spread the field to create a lane for Bush. TDs scored from inside the 5

Bush: 5

Deuce: 7

 

[Ilov80s]

Lots of downside on Deuce, given the possibility that Bush grabs most of the carries. Limited upside on Deuce - without 100% of the carries it is very unlikely he will crack the top tier.High downside + low upside = bad pick

Why will Bush get most of the carries? I'd also love to hear your opinion on MJD.

 

[Chaka]

I have Deuce as my #24 RB and with the exception of MJD everyone of them is the unquestioned #1 RB on their team. I can find very few arguments for why you should select a time-share RB over a guy who is guaranteed the majority of touches from their team.

But Deuce is the second RBBC guy on my board (MJD).

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I have Deuce as my #24 RB and with the exception of MJD everyone of them is the unquestioned #1 RB on their team. I can find very few arguments for why you should select a time-share RB over a guy who is guaranteed the majority of touches from their team.But Deuce is the second RBBC guy on my board (MJD).

so you have bush ranked 25+?

 

[Steelers4Life]

Lots of downside on Deuce, given the possibility that Bush grabs most of the carries. Limited upside on Deuce - without 100% of the carries it is very unlikely he will crack the top tier.High downside + low upside = bad pick

His downside is injury, that's it. Of course, his upside is huge if it'd be Bush who gets injured, not him. His role on the offense is secure, and his knee should be even less of an issue that it was last year. In my non PPR dynasty league, Deuce was TENTH among all RBs last year despite getting only 214 carries 26 receptions, possibly a spot or two lower in PPG. That made him a borderline #1 RB, and his 2nd half was stronger than his 1st half. I've gotta chuckle when people knock him because of RBBC fears when his offense and his role in it will remain consistent and his knee is stronger.

 

[Chaka]

I have Deuce as my #24 RB and with the exception of MJD everyone of them is the unquestioned #1 RB on their team. I can find very few arguments for why you should select a time-share RB over a guy who is guaranteed the majority of touches from their team.But Deuce is the second RBBC guy on my board (MJD).

so you have bush ranked 25+?

Bush represents an interesting dilema. I have him ranked 11 right now but I don't truly consider him to be a pure RB. Technically he plays the position but he is as much of a hybrid RB-WR as this league has seen since Ronnie Harmon. Because of this I don't consider him to be in a true time share situation because with the way Sean Payton utilizes him he is essentially a 3 down back. About the only thing he may lose is short yardage touches, but so does Brian Westbrook. So while I see both Bush & Deuce getting in the neighborhood of 200 carries, I also see bush with 70-80 receptions which will push his touch total much closer to 300 than Deuce.I know that it is a contradiction to call Deuce a RBBC guy and Bush not but I that's the way I see it.

 

[Tau837]

Lots of downside on Deuce, given the possibility that Bush grabs most of the carries. Limited upside on Deuce - without 100% of the carries it is very unlikely he will crack the top tier.High downside + low upside = bad pick

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I have Deuce as my #24 RB and with the exception of MJD everyone of them is the unquestioned #1 RB on their team. I can find very few arguments for why you should select a time-share RB over a guy who is guaranteed the majority of touches from their team.But Deuce is the second RBBC guy on my board (MJD).

so you have bush ranked 25+?

Bush represents an interesting dilema. I have him ranked 11 right now but I don't truly consider him to be a pure RB. Technically he plays the position but he is as much of a hybrid RB-WR as this league has seen since Ronnie Harmon. Because of this I don't consider him to be in a true time share situation because with the way Sean Payton utilizes him he is essentially a 3 down back. About the only thing he may lose is short yardage touches, but so does Brian Westbrook. So while I see both Bush & Deuce getting in the neighborhood of 200 carries, I also see bush with 70-80 receptions which will push his touch total much closer to 300 than Deuce.I know that it is a contradiction to call Deuce a RBBC guy and Bush not but I that's the way I see it.

whatever helps you rank. i've got him around 12, but my leagues ea. have diff. scoring that pushes him around a bit (a "traditional", a ppr, and a pts for return). have deuce at 22 now, but may move up a couple.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

In my league, NONppr, Deuce was the #10 Rb overall, and outscored R. Bush. I agree with several posters here that have elluded to Deuce's role staying pretty much the same this year. Bush isn't an every down RB, he wasn't at USC, and he probably never will be at N.O. Deuce will get 15-20 carries a game, and if you look at last year's numbers he was getting 20+ carries down the stretch. He was a top 5 RB a few years back, before his injury, and he's too valuable to the team to not be used extensively.

I drafted him in the 8th round...and he'll split time with A. Green at RB2. GREAT VALUE this year.

He outscored Marion Barber III, yet guys are drafting him the 3-4th round this year. Wait on Deuce and be rewarded.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

20,26,21,15,27 ... Deuce's carries in the last 5 games they both played (Deuce sat out wk 17). 21.8 carries/game. over 16 games that would be 349 carries. I don't expect that to happen, but you can see how they relied on him when they needed it most. I think it's pretty telling to me how they leaned on him in the stretch run for the playoffs. I can see Deuce getting 270 carries this year, after being fully recovered from ACL surgery.

5,10,6,7,20.... R. Bush's carries during that same span.

 

[Tau837]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).

Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

Deuce had 7 Tds in wks 10-17 (and he didn't play week 17)....so that could have easily been 8 tds like Bush. I took the last 5 games they both played in for my previous post to compare production.I won't dispute the yards at this time because I don't want to add them all up...but you might double check since your TD total was off by two TDs...meaning the scoring difference may have been closer that you think. Almost all of Bush's touches came in the passing game, which won't change a whole lot, IMO. Thus, while Bush is being drafted top 12 RB, Deuce can be had much later and probably has more value because of this....which is the point the poster was trying to make I believe.

 

[switz]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

Of note, while Bush's work increased during the second half, it did not cut inot McAllister's opportunities. The team merely ran the ball more once Bush showed he could run at the NFL level.So knocking Deuce down, due to Bush having a larger role, is not supported in the context of last season.

 

[Bobcat10]

So some actually think Deuce is not value this year? He might be the poster boy this year, and if not, darn close imo.

 

[Ilov80s]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

2nd half of the season exludes the playoffs, correct? I usually include playoffs because the larger the sample size, the more reliable the numbers become. Deuce did not play week 17, so we are going to have to average this out to get a fair comparison. I believe this is the reason you are seeing such a huge disparity between the 2 during the final 8 games of 06. Bush- avg yards: 98.5Bush- TDs/game: 1 Deuce- avg yards: 94.1Deuce- TD/game: 0.71No doubt Bush should be drafted higher then Deuce. Lets prorate these numbers over a 16 game season and see what we get:Bush- 1576 yards and 16 TDsDeuce- 1501 yards and 11 TDsIf that is proof that Bush is a valid 1st rounder, then it is also proof that Deuce isn't far behind. Here is another very interesting revelation that comes from these numbers. If you project the number of carries Deuce and Bush received in the final 8 games over the course of a 16 game season you get thiseuce- 304 (that is 60 carries more then in 06)Bush- 148 (6 carries less then in 06) What about receptions?Deuce- 30 (same as 06)Bush- 122 (33 more then in 06)So if we are take any info from the end of 06, its that Deuce will get more carries and Bush will evolve even further into a WR. Bush is not a typical RB, but is a hybrid. Lets see how the two playoff games reflect this possibility?Deuce- 26 carries 161 yards / 7 recpetions 47 yards (208 total yards) and 2 TDsBush- 16 carries 71 yards / 10 receptions 152 yards (225 total yards) and 2 TDsAgain we see Deuce favored in the rushing attack while Bush being a gamebreaking receiver. I don't see any reason why Deuce will not continue to receive 60% of the carries or between 230-300 carries. Again, Deuce is the #1 RB in New Orleans and Bush is the #1 playmaker. If anything, I think this hurts Colston's numbers.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

2nd half of the season exludes the playoffs, correct? I usually include playoffs because the larger the sample size, the more reliable the numbers become. Deuce did not play week 17, so we are going to have to average this out to get a fair comparison. I believe this is the reason you are seeing such a huge disparity between the 2 during the final 8 games of 06. Bush- avg yards: 98.5Bush- TDs/game: 1 Deuce- avg yards: 94.1Deuce- TD/game: 0.71No doubt Bush should be drafted higher then Deuce. Lets prorate these numbers over a 16 game season and see what we get:Bush- 1576 yards and 16 TDsDeuce- 1501 yards and 11 TDsIf that is proof that Bush is a valid 1st rounder, then it is also proof that Deuce isn't far behind. Here is another very interesting revelation that comes from these numbers. If you project the number of carries Deuce and Bush received in the final 8 games over the course of a 16 game season you get thiseuce- 304 (that is 60 carries more then in 06)Bush- 148 (6 carries less then in 06) What about receptions?Deuce- 30 (same as 06)Bush- 122 (33 more then in 06)So if we are take any info from the end of 06, its that Deuce will get more carries and Bush will evolve even further into a WR. Bush is not a typical RB, but is a hybrid. Lets see how the two playoff games reflect this possibility?Deuce- 26 carries 161 yards / 7 recpetions 47 yards (208 total yards) and 2 TDsBush- 16 carries 71 yards / 10 receptions 152 yards (225 total yards) and 2 TDsAgain we see Deuce favored in the rushing attack while Bush being a gamebreaking receiver. I don't see any reason why Deuce will not continue to receive 60% of the carries or between 230-300 carries. Again, Deuce is the #1 RB in New Orleans and Bush is the #1 playmaker. If anything, I think this hurts Colston's numbers.

Great post... I agree 100%.

 

[bolldpt]

No joke, last week I snatched Deuce up in the 10th round in a 10 team, 1pt/rec league. I dont care what you feel about Deuce that is crazy value for RB#4.

 

[Ned]

shhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[lborges]

I have him rated at 20, Bush at 16

 

[AB in DC]

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me.

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR.

Yes, he's great value in the 4th round if your fantasy league uses last year's stats.

There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

Of course he's capable of it. But the odds of him getting another 274 touches and 10 TD are very, very small.

 

[Ilov80s]

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me.

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR.

Yes, he's great value in the 4th round if your fantasy league uses last year's stats.

There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

Of course he's capable of it. But the odds of him getting another 274 touches and 10 TD are very, very small.

Why?

 

[Christo]

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me.

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR.

Yes, he's great value in the 4th round if your fantasy league uses last year's stats.

There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

Of course he's capable of it. But the odds of him getting another 274 touches and 10 TD are very, very small.

Why?

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me.

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR.

Yes, he's great value in the 4th round if your fantasy league uses last year's stats.

There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

Of course he's capable of it. But the odds of him getting another 274 touches and 10 TD are very, very small.

Why?

Because he's 1 year older, and Bush is 1 year more experienced. I also think it's a long shot that the Saints produce the same O numbers as last year. I'm not expecting a collapse, but a slight step back.

 

[WarRedbirds]

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me.

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR.

Yes, he's great value in the 4th round if your fantasy league uses last year's stats.

There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

Of course he's capable of it. But the odds of him getting another 274 touches and 10 TD are very, very small.

Why?

Because he's 1 year older, and Bush is 1 year more experienced. I also think it's a long shot that the Saints produce the same O numbers as last year. I'm not expecting a collapse, but a slight step back.

Yes, he's one year older...he's all of 28 years old. And he is also one year farther removed from a knee injury.I was TOTALLY overlooking McCallister until I read this thread. Might target him as my RB2 in a 14-teamer if he drops far enough. He doesn't have alot of upside unless Bush gets hurt however.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

The fact that I can draft SJax, 2 top WRs and still get a borderline #1 RB amazes me.

Deuce is by no means a "Borderline" #1 RB.

Really? I had him in one dynasty and one redraft last year. He was RB13 in the redraft and RB15 (but only nine points lower than RB12) in the dynasty. Both PPR.

Yes, he's great value in the 4th round if your fantasy league uses last year's stats.

There is nothing that makes me believe he isn't capable of duplicating that again this season.

Of course he's capable of it. But the odds of him getting another 274 touches and 10 TD are very, very small.

Why?

Because he's 1 year older, and Bush is 1 year more experienced. I also think it's a long shot that the Saints produce the same O numbers as last year. I'm not expecting a collapse, but a slight step back.

What have the Saints lost that makes you think they'll drop off in production? Don't tell me old ### Joe Horn either. If anything, Brees, Bush and Colston (all first yr players for the Saints) now have more experience in the system and should be primed for better seasons.In addition, the coaches have figured out what works, especially towards the end of the year, and that seems to be a heavy dose of Deuce, and a hybrid RB named Bush.

 

[Tau837]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

Deuce had 7 Tds in wks 10-17 (and he didn't play week 17)....so that could have easily been 8 tds like Bush. I took the last 5 games they both played in for my previous post to compare production.I won't dispute the yards at this time because I don't want to add them all up...but you might double check since your TD total was off by two TDs...meaning the scoring difference may have been closer that you think. Almost all of Bush's touches came in the passing game, which won't change a whole lot, IMO. Thus, while Bush is being drafted top 12 RB, Deuce can be had much later and probably has more value because of this....which is the point the poster was trying to make I believe.

Note that I said weeks 10-17 in my post. I was using the second half of the regular season. I assume the discrepancy you are citing is because you are including the two playoff games. My numbers were pulled straight from the Data Dominator, and I'm pretty sure they are accurate.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

Deuce had 7 Tds in wks 10-17 (and he didn't play week 17)....so that could have easily been 8 tds like Bush. I took the last 5 games they both played in for my previous post to compare production.I won't dispute the yards at this time because I don't want to add them all up...but you might double check since your TD total was off by two TDs...meaning the scoring difference may have been closer that you think. Almost all of Bush's touches came in the passing game, which won't change a whole lot, IMO. Thus, while Bush is being drafted top 12 RB, Deuce can be had much later and probably has more value because of this....which is the point the poster was trying to make I believe.

Note that I said weeks 10-17 in my post. I was using the second half of the regular season. I assume the discrepancy you are citing is because you are including the two playoff games. My numbers were pulled straight from the Data Dominator, and I'm pretty sure they are accurate.

I used fanball, our league's host site, and they have him for 7 tds from wk 10-17...you'll have to check to believe me. They also have him for 11 tds on the season in 2006. Sorry about that.

 

[Tau837]

In the second half last season (weeks 10-17), Bush was RB8 and McAllister was RB17. Over that span, McAllister had 146 touches and Bush had only 116, yet Bush scored more TDs (8 to 5), got more yards (788 to 659), and got more first downs (37 to 33).Personally, I expect a small amount of Deuce's workload to shift to Bush this year, and I expect Bush to be more productive overall. That doesn't mean Deuce won't be good, but I do expect him to produce less than last season.

Of note, while Bush's work increased during the second half, it did not cut inot McAllister's opportunities. The team merely ran the ball more once Bush showed he could run at the NFL level.So knocking Deuce down, due to Bush having a larger role, is not supported in the context of last season.

First off, just to back up the first part of your comment, New Orleans RBs rushed 198 times in their first 8 games and 228 times in their last 8 games. (All regular season.) However, during the last 8 games, New Orleans' 4 wins were all by 18+ points; they only had 2 games like that in the first half. More specifically, in the first 8 games, New Orleans only had 29 rushing attempts in the second half while up by 10 or more points; in the last 8 games, they had 58. That's the entire difference right there. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that, unless you are expecting New Orleans to have a lot of blowouts where they are running out the clock.Secondly, I said that I expect some of McAllister's workload to shift to Bush. From their spotlights, here is how I projected them. McAllister:

Last year, Deuce had 274 touches in 15 games, while Bush had only 243 in 16 (more like 15.25) games. I see that gap narrowing. I projected Bush for 265 touches in the Bush spotlight thread, and I'll go with 260 for Deuce.240/1032/9 (4.3 ypc) rushing20/136/0 (6.8 ypr) receivingThat is 171 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which would have ranked him as RB #22 last season.

Bush:

I'll go with:180/828/9 (4.6 ypc) rushing85/765/4 (9.0 ypr) receivingThat is 237 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which would have ranked him as RB #8 last season.

 

[Tau837]

2nd half of the season exludes the playoffs, correct? I usually include playoffs because the larger the sample size, the more reliable the numbers become.

That's fine. The thing is, I used the Data Dominator, and it only shows regular season stats.

Deuce did not play week 17, so we are going to have to average this out to get a fair comparison. I believe this is the reason you are seeing such a huge disparity between the 2 during the final 8 games of 06.

Bush only played the first quarter of week 17, with only 3 carries and 2 catches. It does not account for the disparity in their second half (regular season) performance, especially considering that Deuce had 30 more touches than Bush despite sitting out week 17. But if you count the game for Bush and not McAllister and use averages, it is going to skew your data.

Bush- avg yards: 98.5Bush- TDs/game: 1 Deuce- avg yards: 94.1Deuce- TD/game: 0.71

Strange that you said you include playoff games to increase sample size, but you seem to be still using only 8 games - the last 6 of the regular season and the 2 playoff games. And you appear to be counting Bush with a full game in week 17.(ETA: I don't know what numbers you are using. I can't reconcile the numbers you show above with the numbers I used, which are from FBG game logs.)Here are the numbers if you use the second half of the regular season and the 2 playoff games, a total of 10 games, and count Deuce with 9 games and Bush with 9.25 games:Bush - 109.5 total yards, 1.08 TDs, and 17.4 fantasy points per gameMcAllister - 93.7 total yards, 0.76 TDs, and 14.3 fantasy points per game

No doubt Bush should be drafted higher then Deuce. Lets prorate these numbers over a 16 game season and see what we get:Bush- 1576 yards and 16 TDsDeuce- 1501 yards and 11 TDsIf that is proof that Bush is a valid 1st rounder, then it is also proof that Deuce isn't far behind.

Using the same basis for my numbers as I cited above (last 10 games), here is how the numbers actually prorate to a 16 game season:Bush - 1752 total yards, 17.3 TDs, and 279 fantasy points. Last year, 279 fantasy points would have ranked as RB4.McAllister - 1499 total yards, 12.2 TDs, and 223 fantasy points. Last year, 223 fantasy points would have ranked as RB9.That shows Bush as having elite potential. But it also makes McAllister look awfully good. The thing is, I doubt that both RBs will sustain that performance for 16 games, and I'm not confident the New Orleans offense will be quite as good either. Knock off 20% for each of them, and Bush (223 fantasy points) and McAllister (178 fantasy points) would have finished around RB9 and RB17 respectively last year. And McAllister would have been only 7 fantasy points ahead of RB22 last year.I mean, I already showed my projections for both of them. But the exercise above shows how you can justify having Deuce in the RB17-22 range while having Bush substantially higher.

If you project the number of carries Deuce and Bush received in the final 8 games over the course of a 16 game season you get thiseuce- 304 (that is 60 carries more then in 06)Bush- 148 (6 carries less then in 06) What about receptions?Deuce- 30 (same as 06)Bush- 122 (33 more then in 06)So if we are take any info from the end of 06, its that Deuce will get more carries and Bush will evolve even further into a WR. Bush is not a typical RB, but is a hybrid. Lets see how the two playoff games reflect this possibility?Deuce- 26 carries 161 yards / 7 recpetions 47 yards (208 total yards) and 2 TDsBush- 16 carries 71 yards / 10 receptions 152 yards (225 total yards) and 2 TDsAgain we see Deuce favored in the rushing attack while Bush being a gamebreaking receiver. I don't see any reason why Deuce will not continue to receive 60% of the carries or between 230-300 carries. Again, Deuce is the #1 RB in New Orleans and Bush is the #1 playmaker. If anything, I think this hurts Colston's numbers.

I'm not going to dissect the rest of this. I think my other posts are sufficient. I can agree to disagree.

 

[pghrob]

Both are valuable RB's. In non-ppr, Deuce is by far the superior value. Bush reminds me of Eric Metcalf....obviously a better RB than Metcalf, but like a previous poster above said, he's a weapon. In 1993, Metcalf was the weapon to TD - Tommy Vardell...who had the most deceiving nickname, as he really did not have a knack for finding the endzone in the pros.

1993 Cleveland Brown Team Stats

Bush is electrifying and has yet to reach his peak. It won't be at the expense of Deuce's contribution this year.

 

[Ilov80s]

2nd half of the season exludes the playoffs, correct? I usually include playoffs because the larger the sample size, the more reliable the numbers become.

That's fine. The thing is, I used the Data Dominator, and it only shows regular season stats.

Deuce did not play week 17, so we are going to have to average this out to get a fair comparison. I believe this is the reason you are seeing such a huge disparity between the 2 during the final 8 games of 06.

Bush only played the first quarter of week 17, with only 3 carries and 2 catches. It does not account for the disparity in their second half (regular season) performance, especially considering that Deuce had 30 more touches than Bush despite sitting out week 17. But if you count the game for Bush and not McAllister and use averages, it is going to skew your data.

Bush- avg yards: 98.5Bush- TDs/game: 1 Deuce- avg yards: 94.1Deuce- TD/game: 0.71

Strange that you said you include playoff games to increase sample size, but you seem to be still using only 8 games - the last 6 of the regular season and the 2 playoff games. And you appear to be counting Bush with a full game in week 17.(ETA: I don't know what numbers you are using. I can't reconcile the numbers you show above with the numbers I used, which are from FBG game logs.)Here are the numbers if you use the second half of the regular season and the 2 playoff games, a total of 10 games, and count Deuce with 9 games and Bush with 9.25 games:Bush - 109.5 total yards, 1.08 TDs, and 17.4 fantasy points per gameMcAllister - 93.7 total yards, 0.76 TDs, and 14.3 fantasy points per game

No doubt Bush should be drafted higher then Deuce. Lets prorate these numbers over a 16 game season and see what we get:Bush- 1576 yards and 16 TDsDeuce- 1501 yards and 11 TDsIf that is proof that Bush is a valid 1st rounder, then it is also proof that Deuce isn't far behind.

Using the same basis for my numbers as I cited above (last 10 games), here is how the numbers actually prorate to a 16 game season:Bush - 1752 total yards, 17.3 TDs, and 279 fantasy points. Last year, 279 fantasy points would have ranked as RB4.McAllister - 1499 total yards, 12.2 TDs, and 223 fantasy points. Last year, 223 fantasy points would have ranked as RB9.That shows Bush as having elite potential. But it also makes McAllister look awfully good. The thing is, I doubt that both RBs will sustain that performance for 16 games, and I'm not confident the New Orleans offense will be quite as good either. Knock off 20% for each of them, and Bush (223 fantasy points) and McAllister (178 fantasy points) would have finished around RB9 and RB17 respectively last year. And McAllister would have been only 7 fantasy points ahead of RB22 last year.I mean, I already showed my projections for both of them. But the exercise above shows how you can justify having Deuce in the RB17-22 range while having Bush substantially higher.

If you project the number of carries Deuce and Bush received in the final 8 games over the course of a 16 game season you get thiseuce- 304 (that is 60 carries more then in 06)Bush- 148 (6 carries less then in 06) What about receptions?Deuce- 30 (same as 06)Bush- 122 (33 more then in 06)So if we are take any info from the end of 06, its that Deuce will get more carries and Bush will evolve even further into a WR. Bush is not a typical RB, but is a hybrid. Lets see how the two playoff games reflect this possibility?Deuce- 26 carries 161 yards / 7 recpetions 47 yards (208 total yards) and 2 TDsBush- 16 carries 71 yards / 10 receptions 152 yards (225 total yards) and 2 TDsAgain we see Deuce favored in the rushing attack while Bush being a gamebreaking receiver. I don't see any reason why Deuce will not continue to receive 60% of the carries or between 230-300 carries. Again, Deuce is the #1 RB in New Orleans and Bush is the #1 playmaker. If anything, I think this hurts Colston's numbers.

I'm not going to dissect the rest of this. I think my other posts are sufficient. I can agree to disagree.

I used the last 8 games of the regular season to create the numbers. I did say playoffs give a larger sample size, but did not use it because I wanted to stay consistent with your original post (weeks 10-17). I will admit that week 17 should be entirely discarded as neither played enough to use it for the data. Regardless, you cited Deuce's dropoff (RB17) during the end of the 06 season as why he might be downgraded, but when we both separately ran the numbers we came up with between 1400-1500 yards and 11-12 TDs. How does that make him a bad pick? How does that make 22 RBs better options then Deuce?

 

[Tommy Collins]

When Reggie Bush proves he can run inside, then I'll buy into him cutting into Deuce's carries.

Exactly. They still NEED Deuce to move the chains because Bush can't run between the tackles. Therefore he will play just as big of a role IMO. He is fantastic value IMO

 

[Tau837]

2nd half of the season exludes the playoffs, correct? I usually include playoffs because the larger the sample size, the more reliable the numbers become.

That's fine. The thing is, I used the Data Dominator, and it only shows regular season stats.

Deuce did not play week 17, so we are going to have to average this out to get a fair comparison. I believe this is the reason you are seeing such a huge disparity between the 2 during the final 8 games of 06.

Bush only played the first quarter of week 17, with only 3 carries and 2 catches. It does not account for the disparity in their second half (regular season) performance, especially considering that Deuce had 30 more touches than Bush despite sitting out week 17. But if you count the game for Bush and not McAllister and use averages, it is going to skew your data.

Bush- avg yards: 98.5Bush- TDs/game: 1 Deuce- avg yards: 94.1Deuce- TD/game: 0.71

Strange that you said you include playoff games to increase sample size, but you seem to be still using only 8 games - the last 6 of the regular season and the 2 playoff games. And you appear to be counting Bush with a full game in week 17.(ETA: I don't know what numbers you are using. I can't reconcile the numbers you show above with the numbers I used, which are from FBG game logs.)Here are the numbers if you use the second half of the regular season and the 2 playoff games, a total of 10 games, and count Deuce with 9 games and Bush with 9.25 games:Bush - 109.5 total yards, 1.08 TDs, and 17.4 fantasy points per gameMcAllister - 93.7 total yards, 0.76 TDs, and 14.3 fantasy points per game

No doubt Bush should be drafted higher then Deuce. Lets prorate these numbers over a 16 game season and see what we get:Bush- 1576 yards and 16 TDsDeuce- 1501 yards and 11 TDsIf that is proof that Bush is a valid 1st rounder, then it is also proof that Deuce isn't far behind.

Using the same basis for my numbers as I cited above (last 10 games), here is how the numbers actually prorate to a 16 game season:Bush - 1752 total yards, 17.3 TDs, and 279 fantasy points. Last year, 279 fantasy points would have ranked as RB4.McAllister - 1499 total yards, 12.2 TDs, and 223 fantasy points. Last year, 223 fantasy points would have ranked as RB9.That shows Bush as having elite potential. But it also makes McAllister look awfully good. The thing is, I doubt that both RBs will sustain that performance for 16 games, and I'm not confident the New Orleans offense will be quite as good either. Knock off 20% for each of them, and Bush (223 fantasy points) and McAllister (178 fantasy points) would have finished around RB9 and RB17 respectively last year. And McAllister would have been only 7 fantasy points ahead of RB22 last year.I mean, I already showed my projections for both of them. But the exercise above shows how you can justify having Deuce in the RB17-22 range while having Bush substantially higher.

If you project the number of carries Deuce and Bush received in the final 8 games over the course of a 16 game season you get thiseuce- 304 (that is 60 carries more then in 06)Bush- 148 (6 carries less then in 06) What about receptions?Deuce- 30 (same as 06)Bush- 122 (33 more then in 06)So if we are take any info from the end of 06, its that Deuce will get more carries and Bush will evolve even further into a WR. Bush is not a typical RB, but is a hybrid. Lets see how the two playoff games reflect this possibility?Deuce- 26 carries 161 yards / 7 recpetions 47 yards (208 total yards) and 2 TDsBush- 16 carries 71 yards / 10 receptions 152 yards (225 total yards) and 2 TDsAgain we see Deuce favored in the rushing attack while Bush being a gamebreaking receiver. I don't see any reason why Deuce will not continue to receive 60% of the carries or between 230-300 carries. Again, Deuce is the #1 RB in New Orleans and Bush is the #1 playmaker. If anything, I think this hurts Colston's numbers.

I'm not going to dissect the rest of this. I think my other posts are sufficient. I can agree to disagree.

I used the last 8 games of the regular season to create the numbers. I did say playoffs give a larger sample size, but did not use it because I wanted to stay consistent with your original post (weeks 10-17). I will admit that week 17 should be entirely discarded as neither played enough to use it for the data. Regardless, you cited Deuce's dropoff (RB17) during the end of the 06 season as why he might be downgraded, but when we both separately ran the numbers we came up with between 1400-1500 yards and 11-12 TDs. How does that make him a bad pick? How does that make 22 RBs better options then Deuce?

I already laid it out above. Reread my posts. First of all, it is probably the case that very few points separate RB15 to RB22. Secondly, I don't think I would count on the Saints winning as many blowouts and thus getting as many rushing attempts as they did in the second half last season. Third, I said that I think the workload will shift a bit more towards Bush this year. Add all of that up, and RB22 or so is perfectly justified.