2nd tier RB floors (1 Viewer)

[fornov]

After the big 3, there are tons of questions regarding the top RB's. S Jackson may lose GL touches to Davis now; Barber has his vulture in Jacobs (who looked outstanding last night); Portis is injured and has Duckett to contend with. After that, James is on a team with a lousy O-line; Jordan's Raiders look bad; Westbrook deals with injuries; and McGahee looked pedestrian last year. From what I can tell, that leaves only R Johnson, R Brown, and C Williams as RB's in the top 12 or so who have clearly defined roles and no vulture.

My question is, for players unfortunate enough to be picking in the 4-6 range, what are the floors for these guys? Since Portis's injury, I've been ranking them Barber, Jackson, Johnson, Brown, etc. My philosophy now is to take the guy with the highest floor, with the thinking that having a 1st round pick bust out is deadly, while if he is just slightly below projections, that can be recovered elsewhere. I worry about Barber and Jackson at the number 4 spot now.

It seems most of the time players are ranked by expectations in general, but with heavy consideration to their ceilings. I'm curious to what people think are their respective floors. If I had to rank the players available after the big 3 by highest floors, I'd go

R Johnson

R Brown

T Barber

S Jackson

C Williams

W McGahee

C Portis

L Jordan

E James

B Westbrook

Any other thoughts on this? How would you rank their floors?

 

[fornov]

Wow, almost 100 views and no comments? Sure this is a shameless bump, but doesn't anyone have any thoughts on this "bottom up" approach?

 

[Drop]

Cadillac will probably give up goal line carries to Alstott, so I wouldn't say that he doesn't have a "vulture"

It's an interesting approach overall, but I think that Tiki has a higher floor than Ronnie Brown. Ronnie hasn't been a featured back since HS, he could breakdown. Ronnie Brown at his worst won't be above Tiki at his worst.

The concept is good for avoiding certain players by having them ranked lower, which is good in a lot of cases. I think that you are on to something. The question is do you miss out of a lot of guys in situations to really explode and get a lot of safe players that make your team average?

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Cadillac will probably give up goal line carries to Alstott, so I wouldn't say that he doesn't have a "vulture"It's an interesting approach overall, but I think that Tiki has a higher floor than Ronnie Brown. Ronnie hasn't been a featured back since HS, he could breakdown. Ronnie Brown at his worst won't be above Tiki at his worst. The concept is good for avoiding certain players by having them ranked lower, which is good in a lot of cases. I think that you are on to something. The question is do you miss out of a lot of guys in situations to really explode and get a lot of safe players that make your team average?

Good point. However, I see Tiki as the player with the lower floor. He is a prime candidate to break down. Though he is in outstanding shape, he's set career highs in touches each of the last two seasons. Can he really do it again? Will he be as effective with less touches? I'm not sure Brown has to prove to me he can "carry the load". His body has a lot less wear and tear on it. In fact, I would go so far as to say he's probably the least beat-up starting RB in football. I like the odds of him being strong throughout the season.

 

[jon_mx]

I still think Willie Parker is undervalued and is as valuable as most the players on that list. Even with the signing up Cobb, Parker is still likely to see more goal line carries than last year. Duce is probably gone.

 

[Blue_Devil_31]

Cadillac will probably give up goal line carries to Alstott, so I wouldn't say that he doesn't have a "vulture"It's an interesting approach overall, but I think that Tiki has a higher floor than Ronnie Brown. Ronnie hasn't been a featured back since HS, he could breakdown. Ronnie Brown at his worst won't be above Tiki at his worst. The concept is good for avoiding certain players by having them ranked lower, which is good in a lot of cases. I think that you are on to something. The question is do you miss out of a lot of guys in situations to really explode and get a lot of safe players that make your team average?

Good point. However, I see Tiki as the player with the lower floor. He is a prime candidate to break down. Though he is in outstanding shape, he's set career highs in touches each of the last two seasons. Can he really do it again? Will he be as effective with less touches? I'm not sure Brown has to prove to me he can "carry the load". His body has a lot less wear and tear on it. In fact, I would go so far as to say he's probably the least beat-up starting RB in football. I like the odds of him being strong throughout the season.

i agree on brown - not like he is a rookie. he knows what to expect from the season, even tho he split time last year.as for the question..."The question is do you miss out of a lot of guys in situations to really explode and get a lot of safe players that make your team average?". i interpreted the original post more to mean for the 1st and maybe 2nd round only, not for every pick in your draft. i think the idea was to get a non-bust out of your 1st (and maybe 2nd). and build around that.

 

[fornov]

Cadillac will probably give up goal line carries to Alstott, so I wouldn't say that he doesn't have a "vulture"It's an interesting approach overall, but I think that Tiki has a higher floor than Ronnie Brown. Ronnie hasn't been a featured back since HS, he could breakdown. Ronnie Brown at his worst won't be above Tiki at his worst. The concept is good for avoiding certain players by having them ranked lower, which is good in a lot of cases. I think that you are on to something. The question is do you miss out of a lot of guys in situations to really explode and get a lot of safe players that make your team average?

Good point. However, I see Tiki as the player with the lower floor. He is a prime candidate to break down. Though he is in outstanding shape, he's set career highs in touches each of the last two seasons. Can he really do it again? Will he be as effective with less touches? I'm not sure Brown has to prove to me he can "carry the load". His body has a lot less wear and tear on it. In fact, I would go so far as to say he's probably the least beat-up starting RB in football. I like the odds of him being strong throughout the season.

i agree on brown - not like he is a rookie. he knows what to expect from the season, even tho he split time last year.as for the question..."The question is do you miss out of a lot of guys in situations to really explode and get a lot of safe players that make your team average?". i interpreted the original post more to mean for the 1st and maybe 2nd round only, not for every pick in your draft. i think the idea was to get a non-bust out of your 1st (and maybe 2nd). and build around that.

That is exactly right, and thank you guys for responding. I am not somebody who always takes the safe pick and winds up with a boring team. I love to take a guy like Lee Evans, for example, and see if he can explode for the season. I do like to balance that with players like Derrick Mason, or Rod Smith to ensure you have guys who will produce at a baseline that you can count on (barring injury, of course).You will absolutely lose out on high upside guys if you did this throughout your draft. One draft this year I ended up with my WR 4-6 of Amani Toomer, Samie Parker, and David Givens. IMO, that just plain sucks, and I would have been better off taking Chad Jackson, Kevin Curtis, or Braylon Edwards in those positions, so I have since fixed that. I guess that is all I'm looking for here - who is the safest pick for now, who isn't going to lose my draft in the first round. Once I get that, I feel I can outdraft and outmaneuver my opponents the rest of the way. I was also considering Manning briefly here because he's so safe. I don't want to turn this into another Manning debate, but there is certainly value to the "set and forget" he brings to his roster spot. Drafting out of the 5 spot last year, I had E James who was the same way. I didn't have the league's top RB1, but I knew I could count on him for 125 total yards and a TD every week. Who is that guy this year? I'm leaning toward Barber, but it might be Johnson or Brown.And don't get me wrong about Parker - I agree that he's great value this year, and I expect him to be at least top 15, probably top 10. But I expect he'll still be there in the second round for the steal. None of these other guys will be.

 

[fornov]

Another idea that keeps creeping into my mind is that I've never had Tiki on any of my teams, so if I ever will, this might be the last chance to get him while he's still good. I also fully expect to grab Jacobs around the 12th? round as his handcuff. His current ADP is 14.04, but is he going a lot higher than that in recent drafts after his huge preseason game?

 

[Koya]

If the list goes to McGahee and Westbrook, you have to have Willie Parker on that list.

You also need to take Tiki off.

 

[Koya]

Another idea that keeps creeping into my mind is that I've never had Tiki on any of my teams, so if I ever will, this might be the last chance to get him while he's still good. I also fully expect to grab Jacobs around the 12th? round as his handcuff. His current ADP is 14.04, but is he going a lot higher than that in recent drafts after his huge preseason game?

I am in NY, so things are different (i.e., we know that Tiki is easily a top 5 back as he has been for a while now) but you may need to take Jacobs amongst the highest handcuffs, wherever those go in your league. I would think before the 12th unless it is a small league.

 

[fornov]

If the list goes to McGahee and Westbrook, you have to have Willie Parker on that list.You also need to take Tiki off.

I agree about Parker, but I don't think he'll be drafted before 2.09, so I could just get him then. But to be thorough, I'd probably slot him between Portis and Jordan.

 

[fornov]

Another idea that keeps creeping into my mind is that I've never had Tiki on any of my teams, so if I ever will, this might be the last chance to get him while he's still good. I also fully expect to grab Jacobs around the 12th? round as his handcuff. His current ADP is 14.04, but is he going a lot higher than that in recent drafts after his huge preseason game?

I am in NY, so things are different (i.e., we know that Tiki is easily a top 5 back as he has been for a while now) but you may need to take Jacobs amongst the highest handcuffs, wherever those go in your league. I would think before the 12th unless it is a small league.

I am in IA, so we isn't to smrt. Seriously though, I don't think as many people outside of NY probably realize how good Barber and Jacobs are, nor how good the Giants offense is.I was planning to take Watson in Rd. 8, then go QB in 9 and 10 (draft is in 2 hours). Obviously, I will take what the draft gives me, and if McNabb or Hasselbeck someone falls to the 7th, I'll get a QB earlier. But if everything goes according to plan, I'll see if I can take Jacobs in the 11th.

 

[RatMan]

I'm drafting on Monday, with the 4th pick, and have been thinking along the same risk-averse line of thinking. I'm pretty sure I'll go with Tiki, but I do see Rudi Johnson as perhaps the safer pick, in terms of floor. But I think Tiki's total yardage will make him safe enough, and his potential for long TD's (scored higher in my league) makes him the best choice there.

 

[Koya]

I'm drafting on Monday, with the 4th pick, and have been thinking along the same risk-averse line of thinking. I'm pretty sure I'll go with Tiki, but I do see Rudi Johnson as perhaps the safer pick, in terms of floor. But I think Tiki's total yardage will make him safe enough, and his potential for long TD's (scored higher in my league) makes him the best choice there.

Over the past 4 years, Tiki has averaged 1495 yards rushing, and 542 yards receiving. That is beter than 2000 yards of offense a year. With consistency, too. Add to that 40 touchdowns over that time, for an average of 10 a year and you have one heck of a player. 2000 yards and 10 TDs. That is pretty nice for anyone but the big three.

 

[Pole Cat]

If the list goes to McGahee and Westbrook, you have to have Willie Parker on that list.You also need to take Tiki off.

I agree about Parker, but I don't think he'll be drafted before 2.09, so I could just get him then. But to be thorough, I'd probably slot him between Portis and Jordan.

I don't know how many teams are in your league, but in an 12-teamer, it is certainly no guarantee that WParker will be there at 2.09. The FWP hype machine is in full gear...not that i think it is unwarranted.

 

[RatMan]

I'm drafting on Monday, with the 4th pick, and have been thinking along the same risk-averse line of thinking. I'm pretty sure I'll go with Tiki, but I do see Rudi Johnson as perhaps the safer pick, in terms of floor. But I think Tiki's total yardage will make him safe enough, and his potential for long TD's (scored higher in my league) makes him the best choice there.

Over the past 4 years, Tiki has averaged 1495 yards rushing, and 542 yards receiving. That is beter than 2000 yards of offense a year. With consistency, too. Add to that 40 touchdowns over that time, for an average of 10 a year and you have one heck of a player. 2000 yards and 10 TDs. That is pretty nice for anyone but the big three.

I'm with you, bro. You're preaching to the choir. Tiki is his own tier after the big 3. Hopefully he gets enough TDs to go along with the big yardage.

 

[cantrell]

I have Tiki and Jacobs on my team. Here is to a great season.

 

[RatMan]

I have Tiki and Jacobs on my team. Here is to a great season.

Yeah, I'm drafting Tiki on Monday and definitely need to make sure I grab Jacobs. Don't want to jump the gun unnecessarily, though... what round did you take Jacobs in?

 

[cantrell]

I have Tiki and Jacobs on my team. Here is to a great season.

Yeah, I'm drafting Tiki on Monday and definitely need to make sure I grab Jacobs. Don't want to jump the gun unnecessarily, though... what round did you take Jacobs in?

Tiki was my first pick. I got Jacobs off waivers.

 

[fornov]

Thanks to everyone for chiming in. I did decide to go with Tiki, and I'm happy with that. My other considerations went 8th (Jackson), 10th (R Brown) and 11th (R Johnson). This turned out to be a major guppy league (sorry, I don't like that term, but I don't know what else to call it). Manning went 6th, C Johnson went 7th, and 5 QB's were taken by the end of round 2. Here is who I ended up with:

1.04 Tiki Barber

2.09 Larry Fitzgerald

3.03 Willie Parker (amazing he fell to here)

4.09 Santana Moss

5.04 Frank Gore

6.09 Andre Johnson ( I got scooped on McNabb by the guy at 6.08)

7.04 Rod Smith

8.09 Michael Vick

9.04 Tatum Bell

10.09 Chris Brown

11.04 Brandon Jacobs (I know at least 2 owners would have taken him before my 12th pick)

12.09 LJ Smith

13.04 Michael Turner

14.09 Neil Rackers

15.04 Jon Kitna

16.09 Eagles D

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

I'm loaded at RB and WR, and I feel I got very good value at all the other positions. Thanks again for the opinions, everyone.