3/4 round rb's. Who is your target? (1 Viewer)

[jurrassic]

With most teams going wr early in the back half of drafts, teams are reliant on grabbing at least 1 rb in the 3rd or 4th. A lot of these guys are unproven and full of questions

1. Randle-Unproven with McFadden and a possible RBBC lurking
2. L. Murray-Even more unproven, upright running style invites injury,
3. Gordon-Unproven, 2 down back, hasn't looked good this pre-season, Woodhead and Oliver are capable
4. Morris-Fairly safe if unsexy however the offense isn't anticipated to have much success and Jones could steal touches
5. Stewart-Finally has the backfield to himself but the offense looks to be a mess, Cam steals goal line touches and Stewart is nothing if not injury prone
6. Ellington-Pretty divisive player amongst the fantasy community. Healed from injuries but concerns over the Johnson brothers and RBBC exist
7. Others (Hyde-pretty much off any list I have, Blount-Pats rb's are impossible to project, Gurley-do you reach early?)

Who has been your target amongst this group and who are avoiding at all costs?

 

[bcat01]

Martin and Jennings but 3/4 is to early for them. Rb really drops off after 2nd rd

 

[Ilov80s]

Depends what kind of team you are looking for. I am absolutely not taking the following i rounds 3/4:

With Randle, there is no real evidence this guy is going to get a significant amount of touches. He is unproven, been injured, looked meh in preseason and got outplayed last night by DMC which now has Jerry Jones telling the media how great his fellow Razorback looked. I don't like the look of the tea leaves there.

As for Gordon, he has been outplayed by Woodhead and Oliver. It is going to be a RBBC and seems like Woodhead is as likely to get RZ touches as Gordon.

If you want to go "safe", Morris and Hyde seem to be the picks. Both are on bad offenses and both won't catch passes, but they are going to get a lot of carries and will be featured around the GL. Upside isn't high, but very safe floors IMO.

If you want to swing for a HR, Murray and if PPR Ellington are the choices. Murray has the look of a potential star, but also has injury history and really hasn't proven much on the field. He has size, speed, opportunity and GL carries. People say his weakness is that he won't catch the ball. I know Helu will be involved in the passing game, but Mrray showed last year he can catch the ball. In the 4 full games he started, he caught 11 balls. That is a full season pace of 44. I don't think he hits that number, but 35 is very realistic. That is enough to give him the highest ceiling of any of the guys mentioned and if things break right, could get him to a top 6 RB season. Downside is he absolutely blows and is on WW by week 5. Ellington in PPR has massive upside. He won't get GL carries, but Bloom has made a great case for why he is a good value. Essentially, in year 1 we saw insane talent. In year 2, he had a hurt foot all year and he wasn't the same guy. Despite the injury, he got a lot of work and was effective for fantasy. So, if he can be healthy and get a good size workload, he could have a massive year. You have to get David Johnson if you get Ellington.

Somewhere in the middle of safe and risky is Stewart. We know Stewart is talented, but we also know that has battled injuries as much as any RB in the league the last 3 years. Stewart is also likely to miss out on the bulk of the GL work. So even if Stewart stays healthy, he is guaranteed IMO to be a top 12 RB. However, there is almost no chance he finishes as a top 5 RB.

If you can get Miller or Gore, that is the way to go.

 

[Raback]

I won't have a single one of those guys on any of my teams at those prices. I'll take talent at other positions and get my RB's elsewhere.

 

[bostonfred]

Hyde is a potential feature back, highly touted, had a decent rookie season, can run catch and score tds, has a mobile qb, a deep threat te, and a stud speed receiver to keep safeties honest, has one of the best blocking wrs in the game in Boldin, and just got out of a poisonous regime under Harbaugh. Yes the team lost some very good players and they play in a tough division but i think people are way overreacting by saying the 49ers are going to be a bottom feeder. Huge upside and decent floor. Clear pick of this group.

 

[hankey2mlh]

I won't have a single one of those guys on any of my teams at those prices. I'll take talent at other positions and get my RB's elsewhere.

I completely agree. These are all RBs that I'm trying to avoid in redrafts, at least in rounds 3 or 4. Of these guys I like Murray the most, but probably wouldn't draft him in these rounds.

That's why I will definitely go for one the top RBs in the early rounds. If I can't get a solid RB2 like Gore or L.Miller in round 3, I will pick another WR or someone like Kelce and wait a couple of rounds for Foster, as long as his ADP is still affordable. And of course there are a lot of high-upside RBs later in the draft, somehow you just have to hit the jackpot with one of them.

 

[Ilov80s]

I won't have a single one of those guys on any of my teams at those prices. I'll take talent at other positions and get my RB's elsewhere.

I won't have a single one of those guys on any of my teams at those prices. I'll take talent at other positions and get my RB's elsewhere.

I completely agree. These are all RBs that I'm trying to avoid in redrafts, at least in rounds 3 or 4. Of these guys I like Murray the most, but probably wouldn't draft him in these rounds.

That's why I will definitely go for one the top RBs in the early rounds. If I can't get a solid RB2 like Gore or L.Miller in round 3, I will pick another WR or someone like Kelce and wait a couple of rounds for Foster, as long as his ADP is still affordable. And of course there are a lot of high-upside RBs later in the draft, somehow you just have to hit the jackpot with one of them.

I agree until I am actually in a draft and seeing RBs and WRs flying off the board

3.3 Miller

3.8 Ingram

3.11 Hyde

3.12 Gore

4.1 Ameer

4.2 Randle

4.3 Murray

4.8 Gurley

5th and 6th round, I forget the exact order, but Martin, Foster, Gordon, Ellington, Stewart, Spiller, Yeldon, Blount, Crowell, and Ivory were picked.

 

[Phenomena]

Morris is the steady, unsexy pick that won't lose your league for you. My leagues lately have been top flight WRs first two rounds, then Morris/Stewart/Martin/etc. in the middle, a couple upside 3rd WRs, then QB in the 10th+.

I have been trying to diversify a bit but there's a lot of value this year in top end WRs, especially PPR.

 

[Freelove]

Murray has more talent, opportunity, and upside (in combination) than every other back in that list combined.

I have him just after Forsett, and ahead of Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, and Mark Ingram in my rankings.

 

[Goooals]

Hyde is a potential feature back, highly touted, had a decent rookie season, can run catch and score tds, has a mobile qb, a deep threat te, and a stud speed receiver to keep safeties honest, has one of the best blocking wrs in the game in Boldin, and just got out of a poisonous regime under Harbaugh. Yes the team lost some very good players and they play in a tough division but i think people are way overreacting by saying the 49ers are going to be a bottom feeder. Huge upside and decent floor. Clear pick of this group.

Agreed. He is falling down draft boards but has a decent floor and minor upside. A top 15-20 RB. Borderline RB2 and an easy RB3. I would much rather have him than all the guys mentioned above.

 

[theplayer11]

I won't have a single one of those guys on any of my teams at those prices. I'll take talent at other positions and get my RB's elsewhere.

I completely agree. These are all RBs that I'm trying to avoid in redrafts, at least in rounds 3 or 4. Of these guys I like Murray the most, but probably wouldn't draft him in these rounds.

That's why I will definitely go for one the top RBs in the early rounds. If I can't get a solid RB2 like Gore or L.Miller in round 3, I will pick another WR or someone like Kelce and wait a couple of rounds for Foster, as long as his ADP is still affordable. And of course there are a lot of high-upside RBs later in the draft, somehow you just have to hit the jackpot with one of them.

much rather have Murray than Gore and probsably Milller

 

[rocketsauce]

Miller

Gore

Murray

Ingram

Morris

Hyde

Martin

Ellington

Randle

And I like the value of these guys paired with top flight WRs over the idea of a top RB paired with the likes of Hopkins, Jordan Matthews, Emmanuel Sanders, etc. That's kind of the two routes here. Of course we've got a 2nd round pick to talk about in there too.

 

[Ilov80s]

I won't have a single one of those guys on any of my teams at those prices. I'll take talent at other positions and get my RB's elsewhere.

I completely agree. These are all RBs that I'm trying to avoid in redrafts, at least in rounds 3 or 4. Of these guys I like Murray the most, but probably wouldn't draft him in these rounds.That's why I will definitely go for one the top RBs in the early rounds. If I can't get a solid RB2 like Gore or L.Miller in round 3, I will pick another WR or someone like Kelce and wait a couple of rounds for Foster, as long as his ADP is still affordable. And of course there are a lot of high-upside RBs later in the draft, somehow you just have to hit the jackpot with one of them.

much rather have Murray than Gore and probsably Milller

Why over Miller?

 

[kOOk]

I have been trying to diversify a bit but there's a lot of value this year in top end WRs, especially PPR.

LOL @ diversifying in fantasy football.

 

[rickyg]

Great thread. Thanks for posting it. Some go with the thought that BC there is so much uncertainty at RB this year after the first 5 or 6 RBS are off the board you really need to secure on of those guys.

But I'm not so sure that's the way to go.

If you can snag some combination of Ingram, gore, Blount, ivory, and an upside guy like Crowell or Duke Johnson (whichever you believe in) and 2 of them hit nicely you've got yourself a decent backfield. And presumably if you did that then you should be stacked at wr and other areas.

 

[TripItUp]

Forsett, which I don't see in any previous posts.

 

[Jed]

Forsett, which I don't see in any previous posts.

Forsett is gone by then, Jerry.

 

[Freelove]

Forsett, which I don't see in any previous posts.

"Who are you targeting from this group."Also, he's no longer falling to the third, at least by MFL data post 8/15. Which makes sense, as he shouldn't be falling that far.

 

[TripItUp]

Forsett's ADP is solidly in the third round.

If we're not talking about the third round, then it may make sense to change the title of this thread.

 

[TripItUp]

Forsett, which I don't see in any previous posts.

Forsett is gone by then, Jerry.

X

 

[Freelove]

Forsett's ADP is solidly in the third round.

Not on MFL.

Might as well offer up Peterson or Lacy. I'll target them if they fall to the third, too.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Morris is the steady, unsexy pick that won't lose your league for you. My leagues lately have been top flight WRs first two rounds, then Morris/Stewart/Martin/etc. in the middle, a couple upside 3rd WRs, then QB in the 10th+.

I have been trying to diversify a bit but there's a lot of value this year in top end WRs, especially PPR.

He also won't win you your league.

 

[TripItUp]

Morris is the steady, unsexy pick that won't lose your league for you. My leagues lately have been top flight WRs first two rounds, then Morris/Stewart/Martin/etc. in the middle, a couple upside 3rd WRs, then QB in the 10th+.

I have been trying to diversify a bit but there's a lot of value this year in top end WRs, especially PPR.

He also won't win you your league.

Correct, if you draft Morris you better have difference makers at the other positions because Morris isn't going to win you your league...particularly with the Redskins offense looking the way it has.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Not every player has to be one that wins your league. Sometimes, you just need one or two of those weekly starters who are solid performers on a consistent basis, while having the occasional big week, who can be the difference between winning or losing a fantasy game by a few points. Every pick isn't going to be a home run or a total swing and miss.

 

[TripItUp]

Not every player has to be one that wins your league. Sometimes, you just need one or two of those weekly starters who are solid performers on a consistent basis, while having the occasional big week, who can be the difference between winning or losing a fantasy game by a few points. Every pick isn't going to be a home run or a total swing and miss.

Totally agree, it's a balance. Morris is a good pick in the right situation...particularly with Matt Jones looking like a great and affordable handcuff.

 

[Northbound Train]

No mention of Ameer Abdullah? I like him over everyone except maybe Ingram!

 

[LOCO]

i like murray and stewart.

 

[Judge Smails]

Great thread. I suspect leagues will be won or lost on this decision.

The question is when you reach on these RB's. Deserved or not, they are almost certain to go on a run at the end of the 3rd round and early to mid 4th. Why? The back half of the first round is going stud WR heavy, and the options to go something other than RB are not that great either (you'r usually getting behind a DeAndrew Hopkins type WR and into Golden Tate territory, so the decision is that type of WR vs. getting a warm body who starts at RB). Really not many QB's are in the mix there.

Forsett is going end of 2nd early 3rd in every mock I'm seeing. Sometimes as early as 2.6 in a 12 teamer. Lamar Miller is typically gone too (I'm drafting 3.9 and never see him getting to me). i would take him if there.

Every one of my mocks has my best team going a top RB/WR combo. I was going RB mostly Anderson or Hill typically fell and then I could get at the worst a Calvin or Randall Cobb in round two, which was the bottom of my next tier of receiver. That may change with the Cobb injury so will have to re-think it.

So it's about the others. I'm not on the Abdullah bandwagon. Didn't look that great IMO in the last game and I don't like when they put a RB in the mix for carries as a kick returner. He won't be on my team. I really want the Dallas RB. Just wish Randle would have done something to stamp himself as the RB to own. Truth be told I might gamble on both of these guys, as much as I hate McFadden. Murray is my first pick of that group. Team should improve, and barring injury I think he gets plenty of opportunity. I won't be drafting Morris. Been there, done that. Multiple times. Just don't see how his situation improves, and it hasn't been all that great the past 2 years. I may roll the dice on Hyde at my 4.4 pick. He'll at least get a chance. I'm not sold on Gordon. If Gore is there I'll grab him - but I think he goes early mid 3rd in a 12 teamer.

The home run picks are Foster and Gurley IMO. Those are the 2 that can win SB's in the back half of the year. I think you'll have to reach for both as they will go earlier than expected. Martin is another I'm really interested. I read where he had a historically good first year and a historically bad 2nd year. There was some stat that referred to a good likelihood players like that revert to year 1 form. He has looked good, and contrary to reports from what I've seen of Sims he is a non-threat. So I'll take a shot on Martin. Much improved team. Not an Ellington/Stewart fan. They won't be on my teams.

I'll be faced with this choice for sure. The question is whether I pull the trigger on one of these guys at 3.9 or 4.4, and for whom. Key to my season.

I'm also targeting Ryan Mathews a few rounds later, but think he'll be gone. Like what I've seen.

 

[Manster]

Im in the minority here, but the preseason does not scare me away from Randle. I don't care if DMC is Jerry's pet cat. He struggled in Oakland. I think he struggles in Dallas. We know who this guy is. Randle will have every opportunity to be the guy behind the best offensive line in the league. I think this is being overlooked due to a quiet preseason.

I've also been diggin Hyde. I think the SF offense will be better than what most are thinking, and Hyde looks like a bell cow to me.

Murray's workload last season, his injury history, and his violent running style scare me a bit.....But if I go WR/WR and he's there in the 3rd I think I'd pull the trigger on him.