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3 Pre-Season Narratives, and Why They’re Not True (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
We’re in that magical time between drafting & games starting. There’s a lot of stuff folks have accepted as gospel which directly impacted rankings.

Curious which y’all don’t believe, and why. Gimme 3!
 
I’ll go first:
1. “The patriots offense in the preseason’s been terrible. Downgrade all Pats!”
If the Pats offense struggles, BB is gonna change things up. Of this I’m certain.

2. The Rams are a juggernaut. Don’t worry about Stafford’s elbow.
First, I am worried about Stafford’s elbow. I’m also worried about the rams run game, and whether Kupp stays healthy. A lot of things worked for the Rams last year, most especially good health. They’re not a young offense, and they’re already a little banged up.

3. The Bucs OL - downgrade all Bucs! Brady & Evans won’t be top 20 at their positions!
Yes, the Bucs have a shaky OL. No, I am not dropping Brady, Lenny or Evans in my rankings. Might Brady be under a little more pressure? Sure - but he’s Tom Brady, and I’ve learned not to question his ability to perform. That’s still a top 10 offense in my eyes.
 
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1. Green Bay will spread the ball around in lieu of D. Adams

Lazard and Watson will struggle but the run game opens-up Doubs and especially Watkins deep. One gets to 1000 yds.

2. Certain teams "suck".

Certain teams do suck but many of the "sucky" teams are in a good spot to surprise. Carolina and Houston will outperform.

3. Dallas is a contender in the NFC.

Just stop. If they were the Jaguars we would talk about them like we do Minnesota. Nice talent in spots but no threat for a title. Mccarthy is literally a bad football coach.
 
1. Kyler Murray isn't an elite QB and teams have figured out the Cardinals.
Murray is arguably the most dynamic player in the NFL and has shown obvious year to year improvement as a passer. He has quality weapons arguably 7 deep. Brown, Hopkins (eventually) Moore, Green, Ertz, McBride, Conner. Cards started 7-0 last year, and they are closer to that then some also ran.

2. Matt Ryan makes the Colts a Super Bowl contender.
Ryan isn't the player he once was, and with limited weapons and an overrated OL, may not be an upgrade from Wentz. Combine that with a defense with a banged up Leonard, and losing a top DC, and the Colts don't look like a playoff team to me, let alone Super Bowl contender. He'll probably be good for Pittman though.

3. The Bears are going to be the worst team in the NFL.
Justin Fields had an excellent camp and preseason, and while one would like to have seen them do more to add weapons, the defense, and the running game are solid. If/when Fields takes a step forward, this feels like a sneaky .500-ish team to me, like a slightly lesser Philly from a year ago, this team isn't as bad as it looked under Nagy a year ago. Also, Seattle exists, in a division with 3 playoff teams, they are your worst team.
 
3. Dallas is a contender in the NFC.

Just stop. If they were the Jaguars we would talk about them like we do Minnesota. Nice talent in spots but no threat for a title. Mccarthy is literally a bad football coach.
I like this one a lot. The narrative for years has been so favorable to Dallas, but they’ve been in a weak division for a while and have been capitalizing on it. How they lose to the Garappolo led 49ers at home in the playoffs? Contenders don’t do that.
 
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I’ll go first:
1. “The patriots offense in the preseason’s been terrible. Downgrade all Pats!”
If the Pats offense struggles, BB is gonna change things up. Of this I’m certain.

2. The Rams are a juggernaut. Don’t worry about Stafford’s elbow.
First, I am worried about Stafford’s elbow. I’m also worried about the rams run game, and whether Kupp stays healthy. A lot of things worked for the Rams last year, most especially good health. They’re not a young offense, and they’re already a little banged up.

3. The Bucs OL - downgrade all Bucs! Brady & Evans won’t be top 20 at their positions!
Yes, the Bucs have a shaky OL. No, I am not dropping Brady, Lenny or Evans in my rankings. Might Brady be under a little more pressure? Sure - but he’s Tom Brady, and I’ve learned not to question his ability to perform. That’s still a top 10 offense in my eyes.
Has anyone suggested the bolded? I haven't seen Brady outside of any top-10s, or Evans outside of any top-15s.
 
Has anyone suggested the bolded? I haven't seen Brady outside of any top-10s, or Evans outside of any top-15s.
Saw it in the bold predictions topic, and I’ve seen numerous comments about either Brady or Evans in multiple topics, yes. Not quite to the extreme, but it seems a lot of folks are running with the OL narrative as their rationale for choosing a RB over Lenny, or a QB over Brady, or a WR over Evans.

IMO you can set your watch by those 3 dudes having a rock solid reliable floor, and a very decent ceiling as well.
 
1. Godwin is meh, after a late season injury. I see a lot more people overdrafting injured running backs like Akers, Dobbins, etc. I’ll gladly take my chances on Godwin in the mid to later rounds.

2. Rodgers is not a top ten QB after losing Adams. The guy does it year after year after year. He makes do with what he has. He gets doubted every year and produces. Water is wet. Even as a Vikings fan.

3. Austin Ekeler is a safe pick. He scored a ton of TDs and I just don’t see it happening again. Herbert will be Charging up the field… pun intended… and this team will have some big leads. I don’t see the Chargers running Ekeler between the tackles as much as people believe. Making his first round status a bust.
 
3. Austin Ekeler is a safe pick. He scored a ton of TDs and I just don’t see it happening again. Herbert will be Charging up the field… pun intended… and this team will have some big leads. I don’t see the Chargers running Ekeler between the tackles as much as people believe. Making his first round status a bust
I was so close to this as my #3

I took Jefferson over him in one league, Adams in another, and Chase in another. It might prove to be 3 mistakes, but I like how those teams worked out.

IMO he’s due for significant TD regression. And bringing in Sony, while drafting Spiller - and Kelley is still there - it all points to more competition for touches. Like you said - in games they have a big lead, I can’t seen them going 3 yards and a cloud of dust up the gut with Eke.
 
Javonte Williams will shoulder the load in Denver

XXX

Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon III is reportedly looking at a split of backfield duties with teammate Javonte Williams to begin the 2022 season, per Benjamin Allbright.


I don't have three off the top
 
3. Dallas is a contender in the NFC.

Just stop. If they were the Jaguars we would talk about them like we do Minnesota. Nice talent in spots but no threat for a title. Mccarthy is literally a bad football coach.
I haven't seen anyone say Dallas is a contender. I do think their defense is the one to own in Fantasy Team defenses, but our offense is in shambles. I'd be surprised to finish above Philly in the East.

1. Matt Ryan is a difference maker and going to propel Michael Pittman Jr. into the next level of WRs.

2. Avoid all Jets players because their offense sucks. At ADP without falling value sitting in my lap, I'm high on Breece Hall and Elijah Moore (studs). I think the NFC east is going to be a logjam on the back 3 teams (Pats, Philns, Jets). The Jets are going to have to play football and if Wilson can not be a dumbass, the Oline looks improved and they should be playing more meaningful games.

3. DK Metcalf is going to struggle this year in fantasy. I wanted him real bad in the 4th round, for the same reason Brandin Cooks is an under the radar guy. Metcalf is a playmaker and can do it all. I think we are going to see some spectacular things from him, which is the reason Seattle signed him long-term. I'll even plant my flag so severely to say... he outproduces both guys in Denver (for fantasy). The team will still be a dumpster fire.
 
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Bucs OL certainly something to keep an eye on...I wouldn't dismiss that one.
Not dismissing it. Just not downgrading the Bucs top 3 players because of it.
I'm more worried about Brady's "personal" issue time off. That's very weird and enough for me to avoid considering all the other things going on. He's been talking about his old age hitting him recently. Also, there's something wrong with his face. It looks really thin. Somethings up.
 
Somethings up.
We’ll find out Sunday night.

Personally I think a 45 year old taking a couple weeks off of training camp makes perfect sense.

If I’m HC and The 🐐 tells me he’s gonna be ready, imma take him at his word and wish him well.

Maybe part of his deal for not retiring was he’d get that time off. :shrug:
 
Bucs OL certainly something to keep an eye on...I wouldn't dismiss that one.
Not dismissing it. Just not downgrading the Bucs top 3 players because of it.
I'm more worried about Brady's "personal" issue time off. That's very weird and enough for me to avoid considering all the other things going on. He's been talking about his old age hitting him recently. Also, there's something wrong with his face. It looks really thin. Somethings up.

I've been drafting a bunch of Fournette, and I agree with you. Between the line and Brady's...."off-ness"...I'm concerned.
 
1)Travis Kelce is gonna suffer because Tyreek is gone. Travis Kelce is an elite TE with an elite QB throwing to him and an elite coach calling the plays. The end.

2) Gabe Davis is gonna be better than Diggs. This is probably correct because I have Diggs on a team. In reality, I think Gabe is gonna outscore Diggs the first 4 games of the season. People are going to think Diggs is done. Starting week 5, the cream will rise to the top and Diggs will seize control of the offense for the remainder of the year.

3) You can wait on TE because there are a ton of good choices out there.. I hope these people like streaming. What's the common denominator of Kelce, Andrews, and Pitts besides being elite at their position? They are all the number one on their team. If you want to wait for the third or fourth option on a bad team at TE be my guests.
 
2) Gabe Davis is gonna be better than Diggs. This is probably correct because I have Diggs on a team. In reality, I think Gabe is gonna outscore Diggs the first 4 games of the season. People are going to think Diggs is done. Starting week 5, the cream will rise to the top and Diggs will seize control of the offense for the remainder of the year.
My narrative here is that Diggs draws top coverage and beats them routinely. Davis also feasts. And Davis’ emergence will have defenses not being able to get away with smothering Diggs.

IMO both WRs feast this year. Diggs higher volume, Davis penchant for the big play.
 
Bucs OL certainly something to keep an eye on...I wouldn't dismiss that one.
Not dismissing it. Just not downgrading the Bucs top 3 players because of it.
I'm more worried about Brady's "personal" issue time off. That's very weird and enough for me to avoid considering all the other things going on. He's been talking about his old age hitting him recently. Also, there's something wrong with his face. It looks really thin. Somethings up.

I've been drafting a bunch of Fournette, and I agree with you. Between the line and Brady's...."off-ness"...I'm concerned.
Last year Brady was going in the 8th or 9th round. While people spent high picks on Allen and Mahomes I just waited and picked Brady. It was such a low hanging fruit. Last year he had Gronk, Evans, Godwin, and AB and a solid healthy offensive line. This was the easiest pick in the draft. This year they have Godwin coming off a major injury, The ghost of Julio Jones, The dynamic(Not) Kyle Rudolph, Mike Evans(OK) and Gage(yawn). I love Brady but I trust what I see and how I feel.

Brady is not good when he has pressure up the middle. This will be the weak spot of the line. I'm predicting frustration and struggles for the Bucs this year. I wouldn't doubt if Brady took another leave of absence at some time. If it was important enough to leave the team for two weeks I'm doubting whatever it was has been completely taken care of. He retired this year and then un retired. That can't instill confidence in people.
 
Last year Brady was going in the 8th or 9th round. While people spent high picks on Allen and Mahomes I just waited and picked Brady. It was such a low hanging fruit. Last year he had Gronk, Evans, Godwin, and AB and a solid healthy offensive line. This was the easiest pick in the draft. This year they have Godwin coming off a major injury, The ghost of Julio Jones, The dynamic(Not) Kyle Rudolph, Mike Evans(OK) and Gage(yawn). I love Brady but I trust what I see and how I feel.

Brady is not good when he has pressure up the middle. This will be the weak spot of the line. I'm predicting frustration and struggles for the Bucs this year. I wouldn't doubt if Brady took another leave of absence at some time. If it was important enough to leave the team for two weeks I'm doubting whatever it was has been completely taken care of. He retired this year and then un retired. That can't instill confidence in people.
This is essentially the narrative I said disagreed with above.
:shrug:
 
Bucs OL certainly something to keep an eye on...I wouldn't dismiss that one.
Not dismissing it. Just not downgrading the Bucs top 3 players because of it.
I'm more worried about Brady's "personal" issue time off. That's very weird and enough for me to avoid considering all the other things going on. He's been talking about his old age hitting him recently. Also, there's something wrong with his face. It looks really thin. Somethings up.

I've been drafting a bunch of Fournette, and I agree with you. Between the line and Brady's...."off-ness"...I'm concerned.
Last year Brady was going in the 8th or 9th round. While people spent high picks on Allen and Mahomes I just waited and picked Brady. It was such a low hanging fruit. Last year he had Gronk, Evans, Godwin, and AB and a solid healthy offensive line. This was the easiest pick in the draft. This year they have Godwin coming off a major injury, The ghost of Julio Jones, The dynamic(Not) Kyle Rudolph, Mike Evans(OK) and Gage(yawn). I love Brady but I trust what I see and how I feel.

Brady is not good when he has pressure up the middle. This will be the weak spot of the line. I'm predicting frustration and struggles for the Bucs this year. I wouldn't doubt if Brady took another leave of absence at some time. If it was important enough to leave the team for two weeks I'm doubting whatever it was has been completely taken care of. He retired this year and then un retired. That can't instill confidence in people.

And since you are drafting a top 3 TE, who are you waiting on at QB that is the low-hanging fruit? :D
 
2) Gabe Davis is gonna be better than Diggs. This is probably correct because I have Diggs on a team. In reality, I think Gabe is gonna outscore Diggs the first 4 games of the season. People are going to think Diggs is done. Starting week 5, the cream will rise to the top and Diggs will seize control of the offense for the remainder of the year.
My narrative here is that Diggs draws top coverage and beats them routinely. Davis also feasts. And Davis’ emergence will have defenses not being able to get away with smothering Diggs.

IMO both WRs feast this year. Diggs higher volume, Davis penchant for the big play.
I hope you are right. I was kind of regretting drafting Diggs. At the end of the day he is very good and he has Josh Allen throwing to him. It sounds like he left a little on the plate last year as far as big plays and TD's. I'm gonna pound Gabe in DFS. I know he is gonna come out and ball week one and make me sad.
 
Last year Brady was going in the 8th or 9th round. While people spent high picks on Allen and Mahomes I just waited and picked Brady. It was such a low hanging fruit. Last year he had Gronk, Evans, Godwin, and AB and a solid healthy offensive line. This was the easiest pick in the draft. This year they have Godwin coming off a major injury, The ghost of Julio Jones, The dynamic(Not) Kyle Rudolph, Mike Evans(OK) and Gage(yawn). I love Brady but I trust what I see and how I feel.

Brady is not good when he has pressure up the middle. This will be the weak spot of the line. I'm predicting frustration and struggles for the Bucs this year. I wouldn't doubt if Brady took another leave of absence at some time. If it was important enough to leave the team for two weeks I'm doubting whatever it was has been completely taken care of. He retired this year and then un retired. That can't instill confidence in people.
This is essentially the narrative I said disagreed with above.
:shrug:
Somebody is gonna be right.
 
Bucs OL certainly something to keep an eye on...I wouldn't dismiss that one.
Not dismissing it. Just not downgrading the Bucs top 3 players because of it.
I'm more worried about Brady's "personal" issue time off. That's very weird and enough for me to avoid considering all the other things going on. He's been talking about his old age hitting him recently. Also, there's something wrong with his face. It looks really thin. Somethings up.

I've been drafting a bunch of Fournette, and I agree with you. Between the line and Brady's...."off-ness"...I'm concerned.
Last year Brady was going in the 8th or 9th round. While people spent high picks on Allen and Mahomes I just waited and picked Brady. It was such a low hanging fruit. Last year he had Gronk, Evans, Godwin, and AB and a solid healthy offensive line. This was the easiest pick in the draft. This year they have Godwin coming off a major injury, The ghost of Julio Jones, The dynamic(Not) Kyle Rudolph, Mike Evans(OK) and Gage(yawn). I love Brady but I trust what I see and how I feel.

Brady is not good when he has pressure up the middle. This will be the weak spot of the line. I'm predicting frustration and struggles for the Bucs this year. I wouldn't doubt if Brady took another leave of absence at some time. If it was important enough to leave the team for two weeks I'm doubting whatever it was has been completely taken care of. He retired this year and then un retired. That can't instill confidence in people.

And since you are drafting a top 3 TE, who are you waiting on at QB that is the low-hanging fruit? :D
Russel Wilson.
 
I hope you are right. I was kind of regretting drafting Diggs. At the end of the day he is very good and he has Josh Allen throwing to him. It sounds like he left a little on the plate last year as far as big plays and TD's. I'm gonna pound Gabe in DFS. I know he is gonna come out and ball week one and make me sad.
There are a couple of FF talking heads wondering if Diggs is fading. I think he looks fine & expect at least top 8 WR season. I have no shares, but I would have taken him over Adams in the league I got Adams.
 
I hope you are right. I was kind of regretting drafting Diggs. At the end of the day he is very good and he has Josh Allen throwing to him. It sounds like he left a little on the plate last year as far as big plays and TD's. I'm gonna pound Gabe in DFS. I know he is gonna come out and ball week one and make me sad.
There are a couple of FF talking heads wondering if Diggs is fading. I think he looks fine & expect at least top 8 WR season. I have no shares, but I would have taken him over Adams in the league I got Adams.
I'm actually starting to feel Adams this year after fading him early. I'll throw in one more narrative.

1) Davante Adams won't be as good because he won't have as nearly high of a target share. He did have a huge target share in Green Bay but that was in a smaller pie than LV. Carr threw it about 100 times more than Rogers last year. He also had about 700 more yards than Rogers. Adams share may go down but it should be in a larger pie. Also, you could argue that having two other professional pass catchers on the field with him should open things up for him. Oakland isn't gonna have a great Defense and this team is gonna be in a ton of shoot outs playing in the AFC West. Carr has been banging the drums for Adams to come to the Raiders for years. You know he is gonna be looking his way a ton.
 
false narrative - Receiver ( enter name here) on the Chiefs is going to be a stud this season.FALSE. not buying MVS, not buying Skyy Moore, not buying JuJu, not buying Mecole. Collectively they'll equal a singular, top 20 WR - that is , combine all of their stats and you'll make one heck of a WR - but as an individual, it might be Moore one week ( and maybe only one week the entire season), MVS(maybe never), Mecole every sunday after a full moon. JuJu on sunday night/monday night/late december saturday games ONLY. Seriously people, you really think MVS is anything but yesterdays newspaper in this offense?? If the Chiefs are better than .500 Mahomes deserves the MVP because this is a list of also rans, never has beens and roster fillers.

Dameon Pierce is overrated he only did it in preseason in fake games- FALSE. the kid looks like the next RB stud in an up-n-coming offense with talent at the WR positions, QB, and now RB.
This team is going to surprise many, Nico Collins will be a waiver wire darling next week ( along with T. Burks).

Treylon Burks is out of shape, he can't run, he's looks like a bust. FALSE> First , he has asthma and perhaps the foliage and allergens in the area he now lives are things he's not used to? maybe just maybe? Please do yourself a favor, and watch this video of Burks , narrated by the Football Scout. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48TyXfSvJyg this kid is an elite talent freight train. spoiler alert: this video shows just how bad of a QB Malik Willis really is.

Giants' offense is weak - false. Improved o-line, WAY better coaching with Daboll, way better o-line, and Danny Dimes should be much improved. They have an easy schedule especially early on. They also play the Lions week 11 @ NY, Jags, seahawks, Texans ( much improved offense but defense is not quite there yet), 2x vs Cowboys.

Cowboys are a contender in the NFC - false. this team is about to implode. McCarthy is just plain lousy, and Dak will struggle with only CeeDee to throw to. Schultz is a one hit wonder, one trick pony - he ONLY does curl routes and nothing else, pretty easy for defenses to figure this out for 2022. They're not going to win the NFC East , that would be the Eagles. it just feels like this is the year the wheels fall off the cart for Dallas. Very weak offensive line losing many of its former studs.
 
Treylon Burks is out of shape, he can't run, he's looks like a bust. FALSE> First , he has asthma and perhaps the foliage and allergens in the area he now lives are things he's not used to? maybe just maybe? Please do yourself a favor, and watch this video of Burks , narrated by the Football Scout. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48TyXfSvJyg this kid is an elite talent freight train. spoiler alert: this video shows just how bad of a QB Malik Willis really is.
They need pass catchers and he was a beast in college. If Malik hit him on those passes Treylon might be going in the 6th right now. My top 3 WR’s are strong but I am weak beyond that. He’ll be my number 4 entering the season. I’m hoping he comes out of the gate firing.
 
A lot of the narratives don't make sense, but to be fair, there are some that do: here are mine.

I think the player to have on the chiefs this year is Mahomes. Not anyone else, including Kelce. I think this is a transition year for the chiefs and Mahomes is the only player there that matters. I think he will spread the ball around and that will make for some very frustrated skill position owners. I will likely have some Juju, Hardman, and CEH shares just bc they are coming at a discount, but I'm also hedging with McKinnon just in case.

I'm not liking what I am seeing in Tampa. This whole mess has the feel of "Shaq coming into camp out of shape and letting the regular season get him in shape". Again, Brady is Brady so the O line only matters for late developing plays, but pushing Arians out, taking a break, losing a lot of the o line, WRs already banged up... It's a lot. I feel people are sleeping on New Orleans being better than they were last year.

The Lions: Everyone loves the Hard Knocks team, and this team plays hard, but there are a lot of questions still here. Swift being anointed the next big thing, Every WR getting some ink, TJ being left for dead and Goff... well Goff. Jamaal Williams is a good player in his own right, I love Amon-Ra, but TJ was the guy getting the targets before the injury, and what about a division that has a solid Minny team, and Aaron Rodgers with an improved D and Special teams.
 
1 Narrative: Eagles run game will be muddled and unpredictable.
Wrong: Because Sanders takes over since he is way better than Gainwell and whoever else.

2 Narrative: Kirk Cousins is overrated and can't win.
Wrong: Because he hasn't been on any good teams.

3 Narrative: Lamar Jackson is just another scrambling qb, and scrambling qb and don't win.
Wrong: Because Lamar Jackson isn't just some scrambling qb, he's a special talent and *will* win.
 
This is the year Brady looks like Willie Mays in 1973.
Every time I’ve doubted Tom Brady, he’s made me look foolish.

Tired of looking foolish. I’ll never doubt him again.

This sounds eerily similar to being bummed on the sidelines while a stock has grown over the last 10 years, finally pulling the trigger, and then the inevitable free fall lol
 
I'm not liking what I am seeing in Tampa. This whole mess has the feel of "Shaq coming into camp out of shape and letting the regular season get him in shape". Again, Brady is Brady so the O line only matters for late developing plays, but pushing Arians out, taking a break, losing a lot of the o line, WRs already banged up... It's a lot. I feel people are sleeping on New Orleans being better than they were last year.
I think they have enough talent to be among the better offenses in the league, but I think we’ll see a noticeable drop off from the more aggressive Arians to the somewhat more conservative Bowles.
 
I'm not liking what I am seeing in Tampa. This whole mess has the feel of "Shaq coming into camp out of shape and letting the regular season get him in shape". Again, Brady is Brady so the O line only matters for late developing plays, but pushing Arians out, taking a break, losing a lot of the o line, WRs already banged up... It's a lot. I feel people are sleeping on New Orleans being better than they were last year.
I think they have enough talent to be among the better offenses in the league, but I think we’ll see a noticeable drop off from the more aggressive Arians to the somewhat more conservative Bowles.
I think Brady will be running the offense here.
 
I think Brady will be running the offense here.
You think he’s up to it?

Reading some of these comments, one might assume he either has 1 foot in the grave, or has only cripples and lepers to throw to.

:shrug:
I think he will. I’m more concerned about everything going on around him. A lot of things are different this year and none for the better.
Correct.

Brady will perform at the same level, but he needs the OL and targets to perform at the same level to equal last year's numbers. Not sure how that is being missed here.
 
I think it's TBD regarding targets, more concerned about OL...there is some risk here IMHO.
Yes, I understood that well. It’s why i explicitly called out that as the narrative I didn’t completely buy into.

The narrative you keep repeating. It’s Kinda ironic. :)

The Bucs will field an OL, and Brady will do well behind it. He’s the 🐐
 

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