Chaka said:
shadow2k said:
Chaka said:
The KC line is a shambles the QB situation is completely unsettled, there are zero receiving threats and Herman Edwards is not going to be mistaken for **** Vermeil any time soon. I don't understand why some people expect LJ to produce at Vermeil levels in Herm's 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offense.LJ is talented but he is not so talented to be stuck in this offense and produce much more than low to mid top 10 numbers max.
Odd, outside of the QB situation, we heard the same thing last year. Then Green went down. Oh, I forgot, last year he lost his FB, Richardson, and that was going to be the reason why he was going to bust.Look, even with McIntosh out, at worst, the line is the same as last year. Solid interior, and the Tackles suck. They stacked 9 in the box against Huard last year...what, are they just not going to use any DB's at all against the Chiefs this year? The two starting receivers are, at worst, the same. At best, you have DBowe providing at least the threat of a big play receiver...he doesn't actually have to be one, just the threat would be enough.And far as I can tell, same HC as last year, with his 3yds & a cloud, and LJ still getting 1750 rushing yds.I'm surprised you didn't at least mention the 400 carries nonsense. You know, how all these backs with 400 carries suck the next year? You know, all four of them that we have for a huge sample size? The only thing that concerns me about LJ is his running style. He takes a lot of punishment the way he runs, he nearly got decapitated in AZ, he was constantly getting nailed behind the line and having to break all those tackles to get his. To be honest, I think missing TC is probably to his benefit. And he'll be more pissed off than ever when he does sign.LJ will get his. Again.
Will Shields played last year.Brodie Coyle is listed as the #1 QB.LJ had to carry the ball 416 times to put up his stellar numbers, Herm will probably try to do that to him again this season with inferior supporting talent. If he gets into camp by week 3 of training camp then top 10 numbers are still attainable but don't expect this guy to bust off top 3 numbers. It's not going to happen.
Yes, Shields played. I never said otherwise. Keep in mind though, Waters was in a walking boot during camp. When he came back, Shields was out with an ankle injury. And the LT/RT spots were never settled, it was like the high school slut, where everyone takes a turn. That O-line didn't once practice together in preseason before the season started. Shields was either hurt, old, or both last year, because he wasn't the same pro-bowl G we'd seen here for years. He was decent, but he got beat much more than he ever had in the past. Welbourn moved into his position, and will fill in just fine, compared to what Shields did last year.Croyle "listed" as the #1 QB means nothing. Heck, TC hasn't even broke yet for the first preseason games, nothing is decided yet. Croyle will take the snaps with the first team in preseason game #1, Huard will do it in game #2. Obviously you missed the point though. Huard played last year, and many teams put NINE men in the box against LJ, and LJ still got his numbers. How often do you see people scared of teams stacking eight in the box against their RB's? He had nine, and still got it done. Do you think any team will put 10 in the box against Croyle? Because if not, then it's no worse.And no, they won't be running LJ 416 times this year. Let's just say he gets only 3/4th's of the touches he got last year. He scored 410.2pts in my league last year. Anything above 300 puts him at #8 for last year. And that's taking away 1/4th of his total production. I don't see them cutting him back to 312 carries and 31rec. That's less than 20 carries a game...for a guy who carried the ball 39 times in one game last year, and 30+ in five others. There's really no reason for his production to drop off from last year on a per touch basis, if you saw what exactly went on last year. To me, all it comes down to, is how much work he'll get. He scored 60 more points than the #4 back in my league last year. That's basically 1/7th of his production. Take away 1/7th of his carries, he'd have had 356....probably right on track for what he'll get this year. So FWIW, the backs below him were...Westbrook, who had a career year with his first 1,000yd season? Gore, who's got a broken hand I think, and already had fumble problems. Tiki, who retired. Then Parker, who blew up last year, still finishing 80pts behind LJ in my league. Next closest after that? MJD, over 100pts behind.What about guys like Addai? 226 carries...give him 1/3rd more touches, for 1/3rd more points as well, and he'd have been around 370pts. He just lost his LT too, right? There's really only two other backs people have been thinking about before LJ that I haven't mentioned. SA, and Henry. I won't knock SA, he could still have another good year in him if he's completely healthy, and it sounds like he might be. And Henry could do some nice things in Den. But really, I just don't see SA blowing up like he did two years ago. And Henry, while solid with a good cast around him...is not a top five back in any system.Obviously we can't play this year based on last years stats, but it's the only tangible thing we have to go on. Considering his situation is almost identical to last year, it's not too far fetched to consider similar numbers being put up. The passing game will suck, the tackles will suck, the interior line will be solid, same HC/Coords, and everyone doubting him once again. Same thing, one year later. Only this time, I don't have to point out why losing his pro-bowl FB Richardson won't hurt him as much as everyone seemed to think. I mean, he was running behind a converted freakin TE last year!
I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick.
