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3rd Year Wide Receivers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gerome
- Start date
healthpellets
Footballguy
of the bunch, Gonzalez stands out. Walker is technically a 3d year WR, but everything he's ever done came last year. he has injury issues.
read this: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-anal...rd-year-wr-rule
read this: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-anal...rd-year-wr-rule
wolfie
Footballguy
There are a few I like but they are going too high, like Ginn and Gonzalez, and Walker a round or 2 higher than I am willing to go.
I like one of Meachem or Jarrett, you can get them dirt cheap at the end, have a gut feeling that at least one of them breaks out, just not sure which. Targeting either one as wr 6 in my drafts, after 4 weeks, can drop for another flyer.
I like one of Meachem or Jarrett, you can get them dirt cheap at the end, have a gut feeling that at least one of them breaks out, just not sure which. Targeting either one as wr 6 in my drafts, after 4 weeks, can drop for another flyer.
texasbirdfan
Footballguy
got my eye on Garcon at Indy not Gonzales
Bowe? But not Calvin Johnson? really...
puckalicious
Footballguy
Wow some real gambles there... not sure if i'd take the risk... this might be Calvin's year though since they all 'breakout' in the 3rd year!
wolfie
Footballguy
Like Smith, can see 65-70 catches and 900 or so yards, but think very low tds. Think Boss and Nicks get the red zone tds and Hixon the 3rd option there. Eli will throw around 22 tds give or take 2, not much left for smith.
Like I said, like Meachem and Jarrett. Jarrett is looking like he will lock up the #3 wr spot in Carolina, if Mush slows or gets hurt the opportunity will be there for Jarrett to produce. Meachum is talanted and in a great offensive, but needs to beat out Henderson for WR3 or an injury to one of the top 3 wrs. The beauty in taking one of these guys is the cost is next to nothing, the last or 2nd to last pick in your draft. If they don't pan out you can cut them and add the next new sexy upside pick to your roster. I assume most use the last 2 spots on their roster as a revolving door to mine for sleepers.
Like I said, like Meachem and Jarrett. Jarrett is looking like he will lock up the #3 wr spot in Carolina, if Mush slows or gets hurt the opportunity will be there for Jarrett to produce. Meachum is talanted and in a great offensive, but needs to beat out Henderson for WR3 or an injury to one of the top 3 wrs. The beauty in taking one of these guys is the cost is next to nothing, the last or 2nd to last pick in your draft. If they don't pan out you can cut them and add the next new sexy upside pick to your roster. I assume most use the last 2 spots on their roster as a revolving door to mine for sleepers.
Avery
Footballguy
Why are you being specific about a 3rd year WR? Don't we disprove the "3rd year WR breakout" false theory every year?Anyway, my thinking for a redraft is the exact opposite. I think there is a lot of good value later in RBs especially in PPR leagues. I think this is the year to target stud WRs early and go for the mid round RBs although specifics of how the draft falls and your league rules and tendencies always have to be taken in account.
I like many 2nd year WRs as much as the 3rd this year (Jordy Nelson as much as James Jones, Devin Thomas looks like he could come around, Josh Morgan looks like he could be a difference maker.
I think the key right now is opportunity. How much opportunity is Robert Meachem going to have this season? He'll probably be, at best, the 4th or 5th option for Brees this year. Injuries could open things up for him but right now I don't know if he'll get a shot to be a viable fantasy starter this year at least.
I think the key right now is opportunity. How much opportunity is Robert Meachem going to have this season? He'll probably be, at best, the 4th or 5th option for Brees this year. Injuries could open things up for him but right now I don't know if he'll get a shot to be a viable fantasy starter this year at least.
Avery
Footballguy
If it fit into the specifics of the thread, Morgan is a guy I was going to mention as a good value that can be had way late although the QB situation in San Fran is downright scary.
I don't think the QB situation is as bad as many think. Check out Shaun Hill's #'s when he started last season, they are not bad at all. If Alex Smith wins the job he'll have to perform or Hill will come right in, and while Hill isn't a worldbeater he's more than adequate IMO. My main concern is the change in offensive philosophy where they just may not pass as much.
In 12 team mocks, I have been grabbing Smith as my WR4 after I have 3 RBs, 3 WRs (obviously), 2 QBs, 1 TE...basically a 10th rounder for a guy who will be a possession starter...not too shabby.
gerome
Footballguy
It looks like everyone will be doing this, therefore I was thinking of going against the grain. Load up on RB's early for depth and prospect for WR's later on. My leagues love to trade throughout the season, so if I can land starting RB's early even though they ride my bench and find a gem of a #2 WR late (maybe J. Morgan, etc.) in the draft, I am sitting in the driver's seat.Just thinking out load.
Avery
Footballguy
I hear what you're saying but ditch the "3rd year" part of it.Miles Austin could be a nice grab late.
Maven
Footballguy
Calvin goes without saying..really. If he can get his catch rate up in the high 50s, he will really breakout.You can usually identify a breakout wr by their increase in looks and opportunity. A. Gonzalez fits that mold. He will get 120+ looks (going off of Waynes years aside Marvin) and has caught 70% of balls thrown his way in two seasons. He is a guaranteed breakout.Bowes looks should go through the roof also. He will have a great year.
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Defending Champs
Footballguy
Right, it has nothing to do with his 3rd year and everything to do with him just being a rediculous talent.
steelcityman
Footballguy
The 3rd yr WR theory is garbage IMO.
While Calvin, Bowe and Gonzo should have solid to great years, I cant see a guy like Ginn doing anymore than what he did last year. Thats a run/trick first offense. Ronnie Brown is solid, their QBs collectively stink and Ginn plays vs NE and Jets(Revis) and the Bills CBs for 3/8 of the season. Plus I think Miami comes back down this year, no playoffs.
S Smith...Hixon and Nicks are higher on my board. Cant see Smith doing anything worth taking up a draft day roster spot. he might be a nice free agent pickup if Nicks doesnt get a shot.
I too like some 2nd yr WRs more than "sleeper" 3rd yr WRs, Avery, DeSean Jackson, Royal, and Josh Morgan as a sleeper.
Of course I've been wrong plenty of times before...usually from following the 3rd yr theory.
While Calvin, Bowe and Gonzo should have solid to great years, I cant see a guy like Ginn doing anymore than what he did last year. Thats a run/trick first offense. Ronnie Brown is solid, their QBs collectively stink and Ginn plays vs NE and Jets(Revis) and the Bills CBs for 3/8 of the season. Plus I think Miami comes back down this year, no playoffs.
S Smith...Hixon and Nicks are higher on my board. Cant see Smith doing anything worth taking up a draft day roster spot. he might be a nice free agent pickup if Nicks doesnt get a shot.
I too like some 2nd yr WRs more than "sleeper" 3rd yr WRs, Avery, DeSean Jackson, Royal, and Josh Morgan as a sleeper.
Of course I've been wrong plenty of times before...usually from following the 3rd yr theory.
Avery
Footballguy
It is?
NinerK
Footballguy
This is the exact reason locals out here don't expect Smith to start the season. If he does, the first INT he throws he will be booed off the field. If Hill starts and the team goes 0-4, bring in Smith and fans are probably more accepting..."well, it's down to Smith, we got your back".ETA: I really think it's going to be a simple offense and more like when the Niners had Norv Turner. Norv simplified the offense and Smith flourished (relatively speaking of course). When I hear the Niners talk about running the ball, I think they just want to be able to run it in the 4th quarter. If it takes all game to establish that then they will, but the 4th quarter is the bottom line.
As for topic, I'm not that excited about any Y3 WR....Gonzalez yeah, but as stated earlier, he is going too high. Or at least higher than a "possible breakout player" should go.
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