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4(102) Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Cameron would be a nice fit and substantial upgrade at TE & help fill some of the void left by Gonzalez if they don't draft TE early in the draft. They can't trot Toilolo out there again as their primary TE. They guy is more a 6th lineman than pass catch option at TE>
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discountdoublecheck
Footballguy
Ted Thompson is going to show interest in him as a free agent for several reasons.
1. He should come at a reasonable price due to having a bad 2014. Teddy T buys low.
2. He wants out of Cleveland due to poor QB and poor organization. "Hi I'm Ted, Jordan I'd like to solve all of your problems. This is Aaron."
3. He is a USC, California player. Teddy T has a thing for this region. Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Datone Jones, Nick Perry, Richard Rodgers etc.
4. The Packers have a need at the TE position.
1. He should come at a reasonable price due to having a bad 2014. Teddy T buys low.
2. He wants out of Cleveland due to poor QB and poor organization. "Hi I'm Ted, Jordan I'd like to solve all of your problems. This is Aaron."
3. He is a USC, California player. Teddy T has a thing for this region. Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Datone Jones, Nick Perry, Richard Rodgers etc.
4. The Packers have a need at the TE position.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Understand he'd be an upgrade but seems Rodgers will be alright as a te1.
the team that needs him most is Cleveland. But yeah, wanting out makes sense.
Oakland?
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
Seems like an excellent fit unless I am missing something. I think this would make Cameron the first TE off the board after Gronk/Graham/Julius in redraft though.discountdoublecheck said:
Discussing the "...right price..." for a player who wants out is very Pettine (aka clueless).
skol asylum
Footballguy
Jordan Cameron to Denver please.
cstu
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I believe its safe to scratch Seattle off the list.
cstu
Footballguy
I'd be super wary about the concussions too...honestly, I would be surprised if he gets signed before the first wave of the storm dies down.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Dray or Barnidge now in CLE?
Jordan Cameron leaves Browns for Miami Dolphins:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000478729/article/jordan-cameron-leaves-browns-for-miami-dolphins
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000478729/article/jordan-cameron-leaves-browns-for-miami-dolphins
cstu
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
would think the move benefits Cameron. If he stays healthy, Tannehill is far better than the trash in Cleveland. Of course he's probably the 3rd option in the passing game behind Wallace and Landry but plays a different role.
And if by chance Clay comes back, that would be interesting.
And if by chance Clay comes back, that would be interesting.
FUBAR
Footballguy
true. though I'll presume Landry gets more in his 2nd year plus he got 40 targets in his first 8 games, 72 in his second 8. While we shouldn't just double his last 8, it's worth noting his increased involvement.
I don't think Cameron necessarily gets more targets than Clay. but won't argue over 10 for the year.
cstu
Footballguy
114 targets have also left the offense with the release of Hartline and Gibson, that should be factored in. I expect all three to get 100+ targets.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Here is some interesting info I stumbled across:
I sorted TE RZ targets for 2013 and 2014 and looked at the top seasons over the last 2 years for TE RZ targets. #1 was Graham in 2013 with 28, #3 was surprisingly Larry Donnell last year with 22.
Over the last 2 years, Charles Clay has posted the 6th (2014- 20) and 16th (2013-15) most RZ targets for a TE in a season. The only other teams to target their top TE 15 times or more in the RZ both of the last 2 years were Denver, New Orleans, Carolina, and Chicago. It shouldn't surprise anyone that the RZ targets for Thomas, Graham, Olson and Bennett over the last 2 years were among the 20 highest totals for TE. However, Charles Clay's name seems out of place on that list. It seems that the Dolphins and Tannehill really focus on the TE in the RZ. Now, Clay is gone and Cameron steps into one one of the better TD potential TE spots in the NFL. Cameron is no slouch at getting RZ targets himself. He got 19 in 2013 (8th most for a season over the last 2 years). Unlike Clay, Cameron was much better at taking advantage of his RZ opportunities. In Clay's 35 RZ targets, he only scored 7 times. In Cameron's 21 RZ targets in 2013/14 he scored 7 times. The difference in efficiency could be play calling or QB play, but there is the chance due to size and athleticism, Cameron is just a more efficient RZ receiver. He appears to be in line for amongst the most RZ targets in the NFL. It could be even more RZ targets than Clay saw last year. Wallace and Hartline accounted for 28 RZ targets last year. Stills, Parker, and Jennings are all in play for them, but so could Jordan if he is actually a significant improvement as a RZ target from Clay.
The numbers look even better if you take a look at targets inside the 10. Over the last two years combined, Only Graham has gotten more targets from inside the 10 than Clay has. Yet, he scored on just 22% of those targets. Cameron scores on 45% of his targets from inside the 10. What about inside the 5? Over the last 2 years no TE had a season with more targets inside the 5 (9) than Clay did last year. However, only 2 of those passes were completed and none of them resulted in TDs. In 2013, Cameron was targeted 5 times inside the 5 and scored 3 times. I haven't seen the tape, so maybe this just has to do with the type of routes being run, but it is clear Miami wants to get the TE the ball near the GL and it is clear Jordan Cameron can be efficient near the GL. While the injury risk is high, the reward could be worth the gamble.
I sorted TE RZ targets for 2013 and 2014 and looked at the top seasons over the last 2 years for TE RZ targets. #1 was Graham in 2013 with 28, #3 was surprisingly Larry Donnell last year with 22.
Over the last 2 years, Charles Clay has posted the 6th (2014- 20) and 16th (2013-15) most RZ targets for a TE in a season. The only other teams to target their top TE 15 times or more in the RZ both of the last 2 years were Denver, New Orleans, Carolina, and Chicago. It shouldn't surprise anyone that the RZ targets for Thomas, Graham, Olson and Bennett over the last 2 years were among the 20 highest totals for TE. However, Charles Clay's name seems out of place on that list. It seems that the Dolphins and Tannehill really focus on the TE in the RZ. Now, Clay is gone and Cameron steps into one one of the better TD potential TE spots in the NFL. Cameron is no slouch at getting RZ targets himself. He got 19 in 2013 (8th most for a season over the last 2 years). Unlike Clay, Cameron was much better at taking advantage of his RZ opportunities. In Clay's 35 RZ targets, he only scored 7 times. In Cameron's 21 RZ targets in 2013/14 he scored 7 times. The difference in efficiency could be play calling or QB play, but there is the chance due to size and athleticism, Cameron is just a more efficient RZ receiver. He appears to be in line for amongst the most RZ targets in the NFL. It could be even more RZ targets than Clay saw last year. Wallace and Hartline accounted for 28 RZ targets last year. Stills, Parker, and Jennings are all in play for them, but so could Jordan if he is actually a significant improvement as a RZ target from Clay.
The numbers look even better if you take a look at targets inside the 10. Over the last two years combined, Only Graham has gotten more targets from inside the 10 than Clay has. Yet, he scored on just 22% of those targets. Cameron scores on 45% of his targets from inside the 10. What about inside the 5? Over the last 2 years no TE had a season with more targets inside the 5 (9) than Clay did last year. However, only 2 of those passes were completed and none of them resulted in TDs. In 2013, Cameron was targeted 5 times inside the 5 and scored 3 times. I haven't seen the tape, so maybe this just has to do with the type of routes being run, but it is clear Miami wants to get the TE the ball near the GL and it is clear Jordan Cameron can be efficient near the GL. While the injury risk is high, the reward could be worth the gamble.
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Interesting analysis, but isn't it really irrelevant? I'll make it simple for you:
1. Show of hands: How many people, if assured that Cameron would play 16 games, would rate him a Top 5 TE?
2. How many of those people with their hands up think he's going to play 16 games?
I haven't decided yet whether I'll target Cameron. But if I do, it means I'm betting on him staying healthy. That's really the only criterion that matters.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I get your point and with Cameron, injury risk is a huge factor in how he has to be ranked. It isn't the only thing though. Situation is very important for any player. Injuries aside, Cameron is very talented, but he isn't so talented that he is immune to situation. Julius Thomas is a great example. He has all the talent and injury risk (which people seem to glancing over while they just focus on the new team) Cameron has. He has a lot more career production, but because of the Jags' offense, he isn't being taken very high. With Cameron, people are definitely seeing it as an upgrade from Cleveland, but we might be underestimating how big of an upgrade it could be. When analyzing the risk vs reward, we might be missing out on the size of the reward. There is a lot more to this than the talent of Jordan Cameron.
It would be easy to think of Miami as just an ok spot for a TE. Last year under Lazor, Clay scored half as many TDs and 2 fantasy points per game less than he had the year prior. Looking at those stats, one might assume Lazor just doesn't focus on the TE or now that Tannehill has grown, he isn't relying on the TE as a safety valve anymore. However, looking at RZ targets, we see that is just the opposite of the truth. Miami tried really hard to get the TE the ball and the closer they got to the GL, the more they tried to get the TE the ball. 10 times they threw to a TE inside the 5 and came away with 0 TDs. That is crazy. New Orleans and Denver also threw 10 passes to TEs inside the 5 and came away with 6 and 7 TDs. No other team in the top 10 in TE attempts from inside the 5 scored less than 4 TDs. Miami tried really hard to get Clay the ball in scoring position and he just couldn't convert.
Well maybe Tannehill just sucks the closer he gets to the GL? Maybe he can't play when the field gets shortened? Nope. Tannehill threw 26 passes inside the 5. 9 of those were for TDs. Take out the 10 TE misses and Tannehill threw 16 passes for 9 TDs. All without what anyone would consider a prototypical RZ target WR. In the RZ, Tannehill threw 24 TDs which was 5th most in the NFL.
The point is that I think we might be significantly missing out on just high the ceiling is for Cameron. It isn't just that Cameron is good, it's that he has an efficient high volume QB that is going to try to get him the ball around the RZ a lot. Cameron is in position to likely receive the most RZ targets of any TE.
It would be easy to think of Miami as just an ok spot for a TE. Last year under Lazor, Clay scored half as many TDs and 2 fantasy points per game less than he had the year prior. Looking at those stats, one might assume Lazor just doesn't focus on the TE or now that Tannehill has grown, he isn't relying on the TE as a safety valve anymore. However, looking at RZ targets, we see that is just the opposite of the truth. Miami tried really hard to get the TE the ball and the closer they got to the GL, the more they tried to get the TE the ball. 10 times they threw to a TE inside the 5 and came away with 0 TDs. That is crazy. New Orleans and Denver also threw 10 passes to TEs inside the 5 and came away with 6 and 7 TDs. No other team in the top 10 in TE attempts from inside the 5 scored less than 4 TDs. Miami tried really hard to get Clay the ball in scoring position and he just couldn't convert.
Well maybe Tannehill just sucks the closer he gets to the GL? Maybe he can't play when the field gets shortened? Nope. Tannehill threw 26 passes inside the 5. 9 of those were for TDs. Take out the 10 TE misses and Tannehill threw 16 passes for 9 TDs. All without what anyone would consider a prototypical RZ target WR. In the RZ, Tannehill threw 24 TDs which was 5th most in the NFL.
The point is that I think we might be significantly missing out on just high the ceiling is for Cameron. It isn't just that Cameron is good, it's that he has an efficient high volume QB that is going to try to get him the ball around the RZ a lot. Cameron is in position to likely receive the most RZ targets of any TE.
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So based on that, would you bump him above anyone? I've seen him ranked somewhere around TE7, behind Gronk, Graham, Olsen and Kelce, and somewhere in the tier with Bennett, Ertz, Witten and Thomas. I agree that he could move into that top tier if he stays healthy, but with the injury risk I'd have a really hard time taking him ahead of any of those four guys. And of the second tier, it's mostly a crapshoot, but even leaving aside your analysis, I'd probably rank him at the top of that group. Ertz has a higher upside but hasn't proved it yet, Witten and Thomas have lower floors (based on age/QB situation, respectively) and Bennett seems to have settled in as a high floor/low ceiling guy.
So if you tell me that Cameron's situation gives him far more upside, I believe you, and maybe it makes me feel a little better ranking him at the head of that second tier, but he was probably already there anyway.
Yeah, I'm really just getting started on this, so these are definitely initial thoughts that may change. I tend to think in terms of tiers, and I think he is clearly in the second tier. But I really haven't thought through the injury risk at this point. I mean, this is a guy who's potentially one concussion away from retirement.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Witten is a tier below Cameron unless you know Romo will be targeting Witten more. I have seen Julius drafted before Cameron and evem Ertz. I am not looking to draft Julius buy I may if Cameron a d Ertz are taken.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
what round 2016 rookie pick is he worth? a 2nd?
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