5 RBs that could crash the top 10 party this year. (1 Viewer)

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Debating the top 5 RBs in the preseason rankings and avg draft position right now is pretty fruitless, I find most people are locked in on whoever they like. So forget trying to talk you out of taking CJ Spiller in the 1st, let's focus on players outside of the preseason top 10 who have a good chance of breaking into it with a couple of guys inching their way into top 5 territory.

1. Chris Johnson-Some of you are going to be running in here and I predict at least 3 more Chris Johnson threads however as most who have been here throughout the off season will tell you, simply hit the search function and you can overdose on opinions both ways. The guy has the resume, a couple of eye popping type seasons, the team has poured a lot into the interior of the OL, lot of weapons, Delanie Walker is like an extra OL for them and brought in from SF, all new pieces at LG/C/RG, this is going to be all or nothing for CJ in 2013 with the Titans, head coach on the hot seat. Schedule is not super easy with early visits to Pittsburgh and Houston, then has to deal with the NFC West including back to back games with Seattle and SF in week 7 and 8. The back half of the schedule though is soft and by that time the OL should be coming together nicely. He is going off the board in the mid to late 2nd, could be a steal or at least one of the difference makers down the stretch in 2013.

2. Maurice Jones Drew-We have seen what he can do when used properly. He suffers from the team he is on but they have made some big upgrades on the OL. The Tackle spots in particular should be solid and if so the QB play will get better no matter what. Better is a relative term and perhaps it is only another 500 yard thru the air but improvement should be obvious. MJD will be very active. He easily can rack 50 receptions with not a ton of established talent at the receiver position although it is getting better. he is going early 3rd, should easily make a run at top 10, Jeff T has him ranked 4th which is a bit high for me but I can see top 10.

3. Reggie Bush- I'm simply gonna post what I think he should rack up. 200-900-5TD, 56-450-3TD...if he just does that he would have been top 10 last year in PPR. There are lengthy threads on Reggie Bush, likely to find me there as well. The thing for me is this offense is already good without much running game(depends on your definition). I think Bush will make this offense a lot more complete and Detroit will have some sense of a running game when they need to run clock. Bush is at #15 right now preseason, he is money as long as he can avoid major injuries. Looks like a 3rd round grade for Bush right now but understand he is no sleeper, most folks are very aware of him and if you think you can grab him in the 4th or 5th, I doubt that will happen in most leagues.

4. Stevan Ridley-I believe it goes without saying that new England has had a rough off season. Nothing at WR, one of their biggest weapons on offense is facing 1st degree murder charges and sitting in a isolated small 8 foot cell waiting to face trial. No it's not Tom Brady, but that said the Pats are going to have to run the football and the good news is they have a lot of talented backs in camp and Ridley shows a lot of promise. I believe they will use him more and more in this offense. 290-1262-12TD last year, he is not a big part of the passing game but who knows now with so much turmoil that has happened. 21st right now? New England did run the ball 2nd most of anyone last year btw.

5. Lamar Miller-If you missed the CBS article on this guy you are missing a big part of the hype going into 2013. Basically he has been training at an exclusive camp alongside the likes of Frank Gore who took a liking to him and has taught him the same work ethic that he(Gore) uses. The man who runs the camp and has for many years said Miller is the fastest RB he has ever seen and Gore said Miller reminds him of Portis. I felt the same way when he came out of college. Miller has a big task ahead and the deck is stacked against him in ways. But Miami is on record as saying Miller is the guy, no one is a threat to him to steal touches, he will likely see the field a lot and Tannehill is going to have to dump it off at times so look for Miller to also catch some balls. Miller could easily land in the top 10 if things go right but he has the biggest risk of these 5 because Johnson, MJD, Ridley, and Bush have all proven themselves, Miller has not yet done so at the pro level.

This is a short list of guys I think you circle if you are going to not draft a RB in the 1st round. Any of these guys will make a solid RB2 as well. I think a draft of Calvin-Johnson-MJD for example has a lot going for it and sets up well for the next few rounds ahead.

 

[Gawain]

Talent and opportunity are great, but health is key.

If any of the busted up M backs (Murray, McFadden, Mathews) were guaranteed to start 16 games, I'd have no trouble putting them close to or in the top 10. Murray and McFadden are the clear lead backs and have either had great games or great stretches. Mathews has Woodhead to contend with, but the 2011 Mathews sure looked like a quality back for all three downs. I think the odds are in favor of one of them being able to stay healthy, but which one is a crapshoot and none of them are heavily discounted at the moment. In a best case scenario you'd be spending 3/4/5 on this trio.

However, I think that one of the three will crack the top 10.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Talent and opportunity are great, but health is key.

If any of the busted up M backs (Murray, McFadden, Mathews) were guaranteed to start 16 games, I'd have no trouble putting them close to or in the top 10. Murray and McFadden are the clear lead backs and have either had great games or great stretches. Mathews has Woodhead to contend with, but the 2011 Mathews sure looked like a quality back for all three downs. I think the odds are in favor of one of them being able to stay healthy, but which one is a crapshoot and none of them are heavily discounted at the moment. In a best case scenario you'd be spending 3/4/5 on this trio.

However, I think that one of the three will crack the top 10.

Excellent points, I also looked at those 3 backs and immediately injuries popped up to me. I also think McFadden is on a lousy team, Murray has a lot of OL problems right now, and Mathews also has some OL issues.

 

[Gawain]

Talent and opportunity are great, but health is key.

If any of the busted up M backs (Murray, McFadden, Mathews) were guaranteed to start 16 games, I'd have no trouble putting them close to or in the top 10. Murray and McFadden are the clear lead backs and have either had great games or great stretches. Mathews has Woodhead to contend with, but the 2011 Mathews sure looked like a quality back for all three downs. I think the odds are in favor of one of them being able to stay healthy, but which one is a crapshoot and none of them are heavily discounted at the moment. In a best case scenario you'd be spending 3/4/5 on this trio.

However, I think that one of the three will crack the top 10.

Excellent points, I also looked at those 3 backs and immediately injuries popped up to me. I also think McFadden is on a lousy team, Murray has a lot of OL problems right now, and Mathews also has some OL issues.

As for the five you posted, I like them all as well, though I like some more than others.

As I've been looking at this year compared to many others, there seems to be a fundamental difference in 2013. Usually, the guys drafted highest are the most talented and/or in super advantageous situations. This year, it seems a legit argument for a top ten finish can be made for any of the running backs going in the top three rounds plus a few picks (24 backs), it's just that they all come with various levels of risk. Just using FFC the 20-24th ranked backs are Miller, McFadden, Sproles, Bell and Ball. I honestly wouldn't be more than mildly surprised if three or four of them ended up in the top ten. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if three or four of the 15-19 group (MJD, Bush, Gore, Murray, Wilson) ended up in the top ten at the end of the year.

To me it seems that the top 24 backs each have a decent shot at finishing as a RB1 and a lot of fantasy winners are going to be made by hitting on those second and third round running backs.

 

[zamboni]

I like the Chris Johnson call now that the Titans have seemed to address the OL.

Coming from a Jets homer, I think the Shonn Greene RBBC talks are overblown. He's a true plodder and outside of a few good runs, was not overly effective even behind the once-strong Jets OL. He is a decent short-yardage guy though, and IMO the one thing that could be keep CJ from top 5 is being Lendale Whited again.

 

[JFS171]

If he stayed healthy, which may be a BIG if, I wouldn't be shocked if Chris Ivory made a run at the top 10.

You know Rex Ryan is going to run the ball, and you know he likes Ivory given the constant interest ultimately culminating in a 4th round pick being dealt for him. Shonn Greene, he of the 3.9 YPC, finished as RB17 in my .5 PPR last season. In 2011, he finished as RB19.

I know there are several red flags:

1) The Jets are a trainwreck. But they were last year as well and Greene still produced. They've always been able to run the ball.

2) Chris Ivory has struggled with injuries. Just a fact - he has. But I personally don't believe in the "injury prone" label too much. Anyone can get hurt at any point - it's the NFL. Just because it happens to a guy a few times in a row doesn't mean he's doomed, IMO.

3) Chris Ivory hasn't caught passes before. This is true, but would anyone really call Shonn Greene a great receiver?

I agree there's risk with Ivory, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him explode. Greene averaged exactly 4.00 YPC in the past two years, and finished both as a top-19 RB. Ivory's career average is 5.1.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

If he stayed healthy, which may be a BIG if, I wouldn't be shocked if Chris Ivory made a run at the top 10.

You know Rex Ryan is going to run the ball, and you know he likes Ivory given the constant interest ultimately culminating in a 4th round pick being dealt for him. Shonn Greene, he of the 3.9 YPC, finished as RB17 in my .5 PPR last season. In 2011, he finished as RB19.

I know there are several red flags:

1) The Jets are a trainwreck. But they were last year as well and Greene still produced. They've always been able to run the ball.

2) Chris Ivory has struggled with injuries. Just a fact - he has. But I personally don't believe in the "injury prone" label too much. Anyone can get hurt at any point - it's the NFL. Just because it happens to a guy a few times in a row doesn't mean he's doomed, IMO.

3) Chris Ivory hasn't caught passes before. This is true, but would anyone really call Shonn Greene a great receiver?

I agree there's risk with Ivory, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him explode. Greene averaged exactly 4.00 YPC in the past two years, and finished both as a top-19 RB. Ivory's career average is 5.1.

I think the offense is just too limited right now. I would be game planning to stop the run not the pass against the Jets. I like Ivory but I like the others on this list a lot more right now. I am interested in Ivory but out of 32 starting RBs, his situation has me leaning bottom 10 right now.

 

[JFS171]

Do you really believe the offense was better last year? That didn't stop a plodding Shonn Greene from being a weekly option.

I wouldn't bet on Ivory finishing as a top 10 back, but your thread title was "could crash the top 10 party." I wouldn't be shocked if he did, that's all.

 

[zamboni]

Do you really believe the offense was better last year? That didn't stop a plodding Shonn Greene from being a weekly option.

I would hardly call Greene being a weekly option. His 8 TDs came in 5 games, and he rushed for 100 yards twice.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

Talent and opportunity are great, but health is key.

If any of the busted up M backs (Murray, McFadden, Mathews) were guaranteed to start 16 games, I'd have no trouble putting them close to or in the top 10. Murray and McFadden are the clear lead backs and have either had great games or great stretches. Mathews has Woodhead to contend with, but the 2011 Mathews sure looked like a quality back for all three downs. I think the odds are in favor of one of them being able to stay healthy, but which one is a crapshoot and none of them are heavily discounted at the moment. In a best case scenario you'd be spending 3/4/5 on this trio.

However, I think that one of the three will crack the top 10.

Excellent points, I also looked at those 3 backs and immediately injuries popped up to me. I also think McFadden is on a lousy team, Murray has a lot of OL problems right now, and Mathews also has some OL issues.

As for the five you posted, I like them all as well, though I like some more than others.

As I've been looking at this year compared to many others, there seems to be a fundamental difference in 2013. Usually, the guys drafted highest are the most talented and/or in super advantageous situations. This year, it seems a legit argument for a top ten finish can be made for any of the running backs going in the top three rounds plus a few picks (24 backs), it's just that they all come with various levels of risk. Just using FFC the 20-24th ranked backs are Miller, McFadden, Sproles, Bell and Ball. I honestly wouldn't be more than mildly surprised if three or four of them ended up in the top ten. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if three or four of the 15-19 group (MJD, Bush, Gore, Murray, Wilson) ended up in the top ten at the end of the year.

To me it seems that the top 24 backs each have a decent shot at finishing as a RB1 and a lot of fantasy winners are going to be made by hitting on those second and third round running backs.

And this is why if I am stuck at the back end of the first round, rather than reaching for a tepid RB1 after 8-10 RBs have come off the board, I would go WR/WR or WR/QB and then swing for the fences on my RBs in rounds 3 and 4. If I hit on one of them, then I'm sitting with a legit #1 RB and I'm stacked with potentially the best WR duo in the league. The broad middle of the first 20-30 RBs makes me think that unless you are top 5 and can get a close-to-can't-miss pick, steer clear of RBs early and pick them up later on value.

 

[Shutout]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

So, in just a "off the top of our heads" list, you have a legitimate 15 or so guys that already have been flashing greatness, some of them consistently and these guys on the list would have to replace at least 6 of these names listed above to make that push.

That is what makes these types of scenarios very difficult because you WILL probably be right in some capacity because it is extremely unlikely all these guys stay healthy, etc. But the talent/opportunity is definitely there to keep every one of the players on the original list from sniffing the top 10.

With all that being said, if I had to bet on one of them it would be MJD, for all the same reasons listed above. He is talented and he has done it before and he has the type of team where they might just run him ad naseum like they have before.

 

[We Tigers]

My five most likely to succeeds from the back of the pack:

Lamar Miller. I think he's poised for a McCoy year 2 sized breakout--around 1700 yards and 8 TDs.

Ahmad Bradshaw. Very good receiving back who excels at pass protection. I think he'll be on the field for 70% of the snaps.

David Wilson. Speed kills, and while I do think Brown will earn 150 carries, Wilson can get there Jamaal Charles style.

Steven Jackson. This is my one cheat since he's just going 11, but I have no doubts about him.

Gio Bernard. I won't be surprised if he's leading the backfield in Cincinnati by midseason. I do think he'll be the least likely to get the necessary workload to be a top 10 guy, but if he were to pass BJGE in the pecking order I think he'd get there on ~280 total touches.

Like always, I expect a couple of the new top ten guys will just be due to injuries. Most of this year's top ten by ADP are in very good situations where they're clear 3-down backs.

Shutout, to your point: I do think we overrate "top ten" a little too much. Pretty often the difference between, say, #8 and #12 is something like ten points. If Ahmad Bradshaw even becomes the #15 back, he's still paying off big.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

Good post. Only two I would not hesitate to bet against are Morris and Forte, though I agree Forte is under the radar of most in top x considerations. Let's see Morris give a repeat performance and stay consistent to start the season, then I'd be on board with him. Everyone else on this list, tough to go against without the injury argument. And if injury is not a factor, DMF can be in the top 10 as well. He will be 90% of Raiders offense. Until he gets hurt.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

If he stayed healthy, which may be a BIG if, I wouldn't be shocked if Chris Ivory made a run at the top 10.

You know Rex Ryan is going to run the ball, and you know he likes Ivory given the constant interest ultimately culminating in a 4th round pick being dealt for him. Shonn Greene, he of the 3.9 YPC, finished as RB17 in my .5 PPR last season. In 2011, he finished as RB19.

I know there are several red flags:

1) The Jets are a trainwreck. But they were last year as well and Greene still produced. They've always been able to run the ball.

2) Chris Ivory has struggled with injuries. Just a fact - he has. But I personally don't believe in the "injury prone" label too much. Anyone can get hurt at any point - it's the NFL. Just because it happens to a guy a few times in a row doesn't mean he's doomed, IMO.

3) Chris Ivory hasn't caught passes before. This is true, but would anyone really call Shonn Greene a great receiver?

I agree there's risk with Ivory, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him explode. Greene averaged exactly 4.00 YPC in the past two years, and finished both as a top-19 RB. Ivory's career average is 5.1.

About Ivory having never caught a pass - I distinctly recall him making his first big splash in preseason when he took a screen pass to the house in the Dome.

It's the first play on this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkd5x29Ni4U

 

[Sarnoff]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

So, in just a "off the top of our heads" list, you have a legitimate 15 or so guys that already have been flashing greatness, some of them consistently and these guys on the list would have to replace at least 6 of these names listed above to make that push.

That is what makes these types of scenarios very difficult because you WILL probably be right in some capacity because it is extremely unlikely all these guys stay healthy, etc. But the talent/opportunity is definitely there to keep every one of the players on the original list from sniffing the top 10.

With all that being said, if I had to bet on one of them it would be MJD, for all the same reasons listed above. He is talented and he has done it before and he has the type of team where they might just run him ad naseum like they have before.

"Top 10" is such a non-specific term, it generally means "really good, potentially season-saving" type player. It's a tier, or bucket, of qualified ability. I currently have 18 guys in my "Top 10" tier.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Good thread, although Ridley was top 10 last year in most scoring systems, so he is kind of a bizarre pick.

 

[Leonidas]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

So, in just a "off the top of our heads" list, you have a legitimate 15 or so guys that already have been flashing greatness, some of them consistently and these guys on the list would have to replace at least 6 of these names listed above to make that push.

That is what makes these types of scenarios very difficult because you WILL probably be right in some capacity because it is extremely unlikely all these guys stay healthy, etc. But the talent/opportunity is definitely there to keep every one of the players on the original list from sniffing the top 10.

With all that being said, if I had to bet on one of them it would be MJD, for all the same reasons listed above. He is talented and he has done it before and he has the type of team where they might just run him ad naseum like they have before.

Gore - In FBG standard scoring he hasn't been top 10 since 2009 (though he was 11th/12th the past two years. And now he's 30. Excellent reliable RB2 IMO

Sproles - He's not a young man anymore, and in the FBG standard scoring he's been top 10 (10th) only once.

Steven Jackson - I'm a big fan and am targeting him as my hopeful RB2 in league or two, but I don't see Atlanta using him enough in the regular season to crack the top 10.

I'm sure those three ^ guys will have productive seasons, barring injury of course, but I EASILY see any or all of them missing the top 10.

That leaves 11 from your list. I could see McCoy possibly missing, depending on how well that offense clicks. It could be a slow start with a lot of 3 and outs early in the season.

And, yes, probably some guys from that list will be injured and come out, or be hobbled, enough to keep them out of the top 5.

 

[Anarchy99]

Hmmm. Nothing really scandalous or new revelations here.

Johnson ranked 12th last year. Moving up 2 spots would hardly be a surprise.

MJD has already ranked in the Top 10 4 times.

Ridley was actually in the Top 10 last year.

Bush ranked 13th and 14th in 0 ppr leagues, probably higher in ppr leagues. Not exactly that big a stretch for him to score another fantasy point per game or so to move up.

I still say predicting the Top is mostly due to injury. Guys that made it last year may not again this year. Guys that did in the past and fell out because of injuries are decent bets if they stay healthy this year. So if you can accurately predict injuries, then you are 75% on your way to accurately predicting the Top 10 RB for this season.

 

[Phantom Knight]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

Gore - In FBG standard scoring he hasn't been top 10 since 2009 (though he was 11th/12th the past two years. And now he's 30. Excellent reliable RB2 IMO

Sproles - He's not a young man anymore, and in the FBG standard scoring he's been top 10 (10th) only once.

Steven Jackson - I'm a big fan and am targeting him as my hopeful RB2 in league or two, but I don't see Atlanta using him enough in the regular season to crack the top 10.

ppr: those are the same 3 I view as most likely to fall out.

non-ppr: my picks to fall would be Bush, Sproles, Forte, Jackson and Gore.

 

[pizzatyme]

Colts here and I'm calling it now that on a PPG basis, Vick Ballard with be top 10 worthy. I like Bradshaw as much as anyone, but he is still in a walking boot as far as I know and the foot is frah-gee-lay! Ballard with a year of experience will split time early on and IMO, it's only a matter of time before Bradshaw is back on the shelf. I don't want to bring bad karma, but I'm not trusting AB at all!

 

[Shanahanigans]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of preseason, I doubt his value will ever be higher.

 

[althepostman]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Good thread, although Ridley was top 10 last year in most scoring systems, so he is kind of a bizarre pick.

True but he is #21 right now on FBG with about 15 staff projections so it isn't just 1 guy pulling the switch here.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

So, in just a "off the top of our heads" list, you have a legitimate 15 or so guys that already have been flashing greatness, some of them consistently and these guys on the list would have to replace at least 6 of these names listed above to make that push.

That is what makes these types of scenarios very difficult because you WILL probably be right in some capacity because it is extremely unlikely all these guys stay healthy, etc. But the talent/opportunity is definitely there to keep every one of the players on the original list from sniffing the top 10.

With all that being said, if I had to bet on one of them it would be MJD, for all the same reasons listed above. He is talented and he has done it before and he has the type of team where they might just run him ad naseum like they have before.

The top 10 changes every year so trying to debate who is falling is the wrong approach for me, perhaps not for many others. I will do a thread that will be nitpicking the top 5-10 in the preseason. I can come up with a lot of Non Sequitur reasons for the top guys but you won't like them

 

[Ghost Rider]

Good thread, although Ridley was top 10 last year in most scoring systems, so he is kind of a bizarre pick.

True but he is #21 right now on FBG with about 15 staff projections so it isn't just 1 guy pulling the switch here.

Okay, but it still isn't crashing the top 10 if you were in it last year and you make it again. Just saying...

 

[Shanahanigans]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to think Miller will fail to live up to expectations. First and foremost is that expectations have been set way too high. I mean there's a guy predicting 1700+ yards in this thread. Other reasonable arguments include, but are not limited to, the fact that he has 57 career touches, his bad shoulder, his failures in pass protection, his 4th round pedigree, his mediocre surrounding cast, his upright running style, and the fact that he struggled in short yardage situations in college.

Obviously, I could be wrong. See Laurence Maroney and Matt Forte. I have been before, and I will be again, but the Shark Pool isn't about towing a line. It's about forming your own opinions of players and discussing it with others. Personally, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Lamar Miller's value will never be higher than this offseason.

 

[Khy]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to think Miller will fail to live up to expectations. First and foremost is that expectations have been set way too high. I mean there's a guy predicting 1700+ yards in this thread. Other reasonable arguments include, but are not limited to, the fact that he has 57 career touches, his bad shoulder, his failures in pass protection, his 4th round pedigree, his mediocre surrounding cast, his upright running style, and the fact that he struggled in short yardage situations in college.

Obviously, I could be wrong. See Laurence Maroney and Matt Forte. I have been before, and I will be again, but the Shark Pool isn't about towing a line. It's about forming your own opinions of players and discussing it with others. Personally, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Lamar Miller's value will never be higher than this offseason.

I'm with you on almost all of this and personally covered a lot of it in the "Lamar Miller vs David Wilson" thread on the SP a month or so ago. Personally? When I watch footage on Miller I just don't see it, I sit there and watch him in college and his 57 touches last year. He seems like nothing more than an average RB to me. I see him hit a hole fast, make contact and fall down. He has very bad feet and won't make anyone miss with them (this was a big part in his draft stock dropping) on top of the fact that he has limited leg power and has never shown to be good in short yardage. So my pro/con list for Miller looks like this:

Pros

-------

Blazing Speed

Cons

------

Limited lateral agility

Bad in short yardage

Pass blocking concerns

Prior injury history

I just don't buy into this hype at all, don't get me wrong... in redrafts if he falls a little bit I'm going to take him. But in almost every scenario I'd much rather draft slot I'd rather draft David Wilson and go with heavy upside and much less downside.

 

[Shutout]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

So, in just a "off the top of our heads" list, you have a legitimate 15 or so guys that already have been flashing greatness, some of them consistently and these guys on the list would have to replace at least 6 of these names listed above to make that push.

That is what makes these types of scenarios very difficult because you WILL probably be right in some capacity because it is extremely unlikely all these guys stay healthy, etc. But the talent/opportunity is definitely there to keep every one of the players on the original list from sniffing the top 10.

With all that being said, if I had to bet on one of them it would be MJD, for all the same reasons listed above. He is talented and he has done it before and he has the type of team where they might just run him ad naseum like they have before.

"Top 10" is such a non-specific term, it generally means "really good, potentially season-saving" type player. It's a tier, or bucket, of qualified ability. I currently have 18 guys in my "Top 10" tier.

LOL. Then you need to take your list to your accountant. I'm kidding with you, of course, but the idea of trying to separate the elite, to me, is to be able to draw a line and not have 20 candidates for a top list.

 

[Shutout]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

Gore - In FBG standard scoring he hasn't been top 10 since 2009 (though he was 11th/12th the past two years. And now he's 30. Excellent reliable RB2 IMO

Sproles - He's not a young man anymore, and in the FBG standard scoring he's been top 10 (10th) only once.

Steven Jackson - I'm a big fan and am targeting him as my hopeful RB2 in league or two, but I don't see Atlanta using him enough in the regular season to crack the top 10.

ppr: those are the same 3 I view as most likely to fall out.

non-ppr: my picks to fall would be Bush, Sproles, Forte, Jackson and Gore.

You guys expect Sproles to fall OUT in ppr? I think I would reconsider that and remember past the train wreck in Louisianna last year. Sproles was absolutely electric 2 years ago having just come over to New Orleans, in PPR.

 

[zamboni]

You guys expect Sproles to fall OUT in ppr? I think I would reconsider that and remember past the train wreck in Louisianna last year. Sproles was absolutely electric 2 years ago having just come over to New Orleans, in PPR.

I think he'll drop out, or more to the point, stay out of the top 10. While Sproles was indeed electric in 2011, two years back is a long time ago, and I think Ingram's role will only increase. Being the short (pun unintended) end of an RBBC is typically a difficult way to be a top 10 producer.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to think Miller will fail to live up to expectations. First and foremost is that expectations have been set way too high. I mean there's a guy predicting 1700+ yards in this thread. Other reasonable arguments include, but are not limited to, the fact that he has 57 career touches, his bad shoulder, his failures in pass protection, his 4th round pedigree, his mediocre surrounding cast, his upright running style, and the fact that he struggled in short yardage situations in college.

Obviously, I could be wrong. See Laurence Maroney and Matt Forte. I have been before, and I will be again, but the Shark Pool isn't about towing a line. It's about forming your own opinions of players and discussing it with others. Personally, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Lamar Miller's value will never be higher than this offseason.

Pardon me on the cross examination please.

1. So Miller will fail because a bunch of middle age guys set the bar too high in fantasy football? The bar is set too high in Miami on his actual team? I'm not sure this is a compelling reason for him to fail.

2. 57 career touches? He was a rookie last year and Miami decided to bring him along slowly for a variety of reasons but mainly he had a former #2 overall pick in Reggie Bush who was under contract for $5,000,000.00 vs the $500,000 that Miller was paid. Rookie could wait till year 2 from a n accounting standpoint plus Bush was one of the 2-3 stars for the Phins, had multiple TV deals while he was starting for Miami. I don't see how this is a drawback but some folks like to pound on it. If he had been in the league 3 years then I would say 57 career touches might matter more.

3. Bad shoulder? He had some shoulder concerns after his Junior year of college coming out in the draft but that is well behind him. You make it sound like he had a broken shoulder and would only have partial use of it the rest of his career, not true at all.

4. Pass protection? I will not argue this and he might not be the 3rd down back for Miami but he still will see a lot of carries and time on 1st and 2nd down. Who on Miami is going to leapfrog Miller if this is the worst part of his game right now? There isn't much pushing him, that might not sit well with you either.

5. 4th round pedigree? No one has ever made an impact from the 4th round and beyond at RB?

6. Surrounding cast? Tannehill is an up and coming player who is only scratching the surface, he has only played QB 3 full seasons in his entire career form what I have read. Wallace is a massive upgrade for speed and they turned a 1,000 yard receiver into their new No 2, they signed Dustin Keller, this team has a lot more offense than last year.

You post a lot, you have some great insights, I think you are not being open minded with Miller. You don't have to like him but there are many reasons that have owners or potential owners interested in what could happen with Miller. Might want to read the article over on CBS about Miller specifically, it is very informative and I thought a worthwhile read.

 

[Warrior]

You guys expect Sproles to fall OUT in ppr? I think I would reconsider that and remember past the train wreck in Louisianna last year. Sproles was absolutely electric 2 years ago having just come over to New Orleans, in PPR.

I think he'll drop out, or more to the point, stay out of the top 10. While Sproles was indeed electric in 2011, two years back is a long time ago, and I think Ingram's role will only increase. Being the short (pun unintended) end of an RBBC is typically a difficult way to be a top 10 producer.

Couldn't disagree more. I'm fine with other people feeling this way though. More Sproles for me.

 

[We Tigers]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to think Miller will fail to live up to expectations. First and foremost is that expectations have been set way too high. I mean there's a guy predicting 1700+ yards in this thread. Other reasonable arguments include, but are not limited to, the fact that he has 57 career touches, his bad shoulder, his failures in pass protection, his 4th round pedigree, his mediocre surrounding cast, his upright running style, and the fact that he struggled in short yardage situations in college.Obviously, I could be wrong. See Laurence Maroney and Matt Forte. I have been before, and I will be again, but the Shark Pool isn't about towing a line. It's about forming your own opinions of players and discussing it with others. Personally, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Lamar Miller's value will never be higher than this offseason.

I'm the guy who said 1700 total yards. Notwithstanding your opinion of Miller specifically, it shouldn't be that surprising for people in a thread about top ten crashers to cite numbers like that for the guys they think will get there. It happens very year. Last year it was Morris, Martin, and Spiller. In 2011, Ryan Mathews got 1600. In 2010, you had McCoy, Foster, McFadden, and Hillis all making that leap from way outside the consensus preseason top 10. Yes, it's folly to expect that of every RB in the league, but no one's doing that.

 

[Phenix]

You guys expect Sproles to fall OUT in ppr? I think I would reconsider that and remember past the train wreck in Louisianna last year. Sproles was absolutely electric 2 years ago having just come over to New Orleans, in PPR.

I think he'll drop out, or more to the point, stay out of the top 10. While Sproles was indeed electric in 2011, two years back is a long time ago, and I think Ingram's role will only increase. Being the short (pun unintended) end of an RBBC is typically a difficult way to be a top 10 producer.

Couldn't disagree more. I'm fine with other people feeling this way though. More Sproles for me.

People love themselves a 30 change of pace back this year.

 

[CentralPA]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

Gore - In FBG standard scoring he hasn't been top 10 since 2009 (though he was 11th/12th the past two years. And now he's 30. Excellent reliable RB2 IMO

Sproles - He's not a young man anymore, and in the FBG standard scoring he's been top 10 (10th) only once.

Steven Jackson - I'm a big fan and am targeting him as my hopeful RB2 in league or two, but I don't see Atlanta using him enough in the regular season to crack the top 10.

ppr: those are the same 3 I view as most likely to fall out.

non-ppr: my picks to fall would be Bush, Sproles, Forte, Jackson and Gore.

You guys expect Sproles to fall OUT in ppr? I think I would reconsider that and remember past the train wreck in Louisianna last year. Sproles was absolutely electric 2 years ago having just come over to New Orleans, in PPR.

Don't see how Sproles isn't top ten in PPR with Payton back.

 

[MattFancy]

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

Good post. Only two I would not hesitate to bet against are Morris and Forte, though I agree Forte is under the radar of most in top x considerations. Let's see Morris give a repeat performance and stay consistent to start the season, then I'd be on board with him. Everyone else on this list, tough to go against without the injury argument. And if injury is not a factor, DMF can be in the top 10 as well. He will be 90% of Raiders offense. Until he gets hurt.

I think it's funny that Morris seems to always get the "let's see if he can do it again" line. What about Richardson and Martin? Sure they're more taleneted, but it's not like they have a long line of producing in the NFL. Richardson already has injury concerns, but no one is doubting him as a top 10 guy this year. I just think Morris is going to surprise some people.

 

[Leonidas]

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

Good post. Only two I would not hesitate to bet against are Morris and Forte, though I agree Forte is under the radar of most in top x considerations. Let's see Morris give a repeat performance and stay consistent to start the season, then I'd be on board with him. Everyone else on this list, tough to go against without the injury argument. And if injury is not a factor, DMF can be in the top 10 as well. He will be 90% of Raiders offense. Until he gets hurt.

I think it's funny that Morris seems to always get the "let's see if he can do it again" line. What about Richardson and Martin? Sure they're more taleneted, but it's not like they have a long line of producing in the NFL. Richardson already has injury concerns, but no one is doubting him as a top 10 guy this year. I just think Morris is going to surprise some people.

Well, for one thing, Morris got about 90% of the RB carries for his team, and a lot of people don't expect that to repeat. He also had 335 rush attempts where Martin had 319 and Richardson 267. Perhaps if Morris was more accomplished receiving out of the backfield or if Martin or Richardson had a slightly better RB2 behind them people would see things differently. Richardson appears to be less-unhealthy this year than last year and Martin gets the nice upgrade at both Guard positions, and they even shipped last years RB out of town without seeming to necessarily replace him.

Just some random thoughts.

 

[MattFancy]

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

Good post. Only two I would not hesitate to bet against are Morris and Forte, though I agree Forte is under the radar of most in top x considerations. Let's see Morris give a repeat performance and stay consistent to start the season, then I'd be on board with him. Everyone else on this list, tough to go against without the injury argument. And if injury is not a factor, DMF can be in the top 10 as well. He will be 90% of Raiders offense. Until he gets hurt.

I think it's funny that Morris seems to always get the "let's see if he can do it again" line. What about Richardson and Martin? Sure they're more taleneted, but it's not like they have a long line of producing in the NFL. Richardson already has injury concerns, but no one is doubting him as a top 10 guy this year. I just think Morris is going to surprise some people.

Well, for one thing, Morris got about 90% of the RB carries for his team, and a lot of people don't expect that to repeat. He also had 335 rush attempts where Martin had 319 and Richardson 267. Perhaps if Morris was more accomplished receiving out of the backfield or if Martin or Richardson had a slightly better RB2 behind them people would see things differently. Richardson appears to be less-unhealthy this year than last year and Martin gets the nice upgrade at both Guard positions, and they even shipped last years RB out of town without seeming to necessarily replace him.

Just some random thoughts.

I'm not saying you can't have your opinion. But it's not like Morris has super stars behind him either. Helu is coming back from missing the whole year, Royster is decent but nothing special, Thompson isn't a threat to carries (maybe some 3rd down playing time, but that's it), and Jamison isn't a lock to make the team.

Don't get me wrong, I'd certainly take Martin over Morris. But I think Richardson and Morris are about even. I don't think we'll see RG3 steal as many goal line TDs this year from Morris. Maybe he yards will be down some, but his TDs should stay the same. The Skins were a Top 5 offense and that was without Garcon for a good chunk and Fred Davis for most of the season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think Morris gets the "he's just another productive RB in Shanny's system" knock against him, fair or not. The fact that he doesn't catch passes doesn't help either, as if that continues and he doesn't score a lot again, it will be hard for him to stay in the top 10.

And Richardson looked great last year on a bad Browns team, so people are naturally gonna be high on a guy who was highly-touted coming out of college and who then looked great on a bad team.

 

[MattFancy]

I think Morris gets the "he's just another productive RB in Shanny's system" knock against him, fair or not. The fact that he doesn't catch passes doesn't help either, as if that continues and he doesn't score a lot again, it will be hard for him to stay in the top 10.

And Richardson looked great last year on a bad Browns team, so people are naturally gonna be high on a guy who was highly-touted coming out of college and who then looked great on a bad team.

The lack of catching passes could hurt him, but wasn't Turner usually a Top 10 back with Atlanta? The Skins are a run 1st team so I'd expect Morris to keep producing. Now I could be completely wrong and he is terrible this year, but I just think he'll have another Top 10 season.

 

[johnadams]

My thoughts:

Chris Johnson: I'm still a believer, especially with the changes they've made. To be fair, his last two seasons have been very disappointing, but his finishes since he's been a rookie have been very strong (RB11, 1, 5 16,13).

MJD: I get skittish when it comes to 28 year old RBs coming off season ending major injuries. Could be a top 10, but I'm not banking on it.

Reggie Bush: Has shaken durability issues by missing only 1 game the last two seasons, but the return to artificial turf as his home field has me a bit spooked. His reduced production in the passing game has prevented him from being a top ten, but he's knocked on the door two years in a row.

Ridley: I'm not sold on him by any means. The loss of so many offensive skill players means I suspect they are going to need more playmaking from the RB and the solid if unspectacular may not get him enough touches.

Miller: I don't get this one at all. I'd say replicating Bush's numbers from last year would be a very positive sign, but the way the hype train is rolling, anything less than a top five finish will be a bust. The offense just isn't going to be dynamic enough.

 

[JFS171]

I think the risk with Morris is higher, thus the willingness to bet against him in PPR formats. My dynasty league is a .5 PPR, which makes Morris much more of an option, but I'm still not thrilled to have him as my RB1 (though it's a 16-teamer).

The risk is obvious in PPR formats - while running for 1600 yards and 13 TDs, he caught all of 11 passes. In a season that went almost perfectly from a rushing standpoint (does anyone really bet on him exceeding 100 per game ON AVERAGE? or getting such a high percentage of the carries again?) he was essentially a non factor in the receiving game. And that's with Helu on IR and Chris Thompson not on the roster, both of whom are more suited for 3rd down.

I like Morris a lot, and I believe on the whole he's undervalued. On the bright side, he caught 5 passes on 5 targets in the last 3 games of the season, so perhaps there's hope he hauls in 25-30 receptions on the season (which, IMO, would be smart of the Skins to target him some to keep defenses off balance). But if the receiving game doesn't pick up, there's nowhere for Morris to go but down.

 

[We Tigers]

Miller: I don't get this one at all. I'd say replicating Bush's numbers from last year would be a very positive sign, but the way the hype train is rolling, anything less than a top five finish will be a bust. The offense just isn't going to be dynamic enough.

I don't want to turn this into another Miller thread, but this speaks to the point I raised earlier about being top 8, top 15, top whatever. Keep in mind that as excited as some people are about Miller, he still hasn't broken into the top 20 RBs by ADP. If a guy who's going in the 20s finishes top 10, it's awesome. 15, still very good. 20, hey, at least you got expected value. As long as you don't build your draft around the presumption that one single player is absolutely going to be a superstar, you can definitely win a league with small victories.

 

[Clifford]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

Rice and Gore are the only ones here that finished in the top 10 last year. (rice at 4, Gore at 10)

SJax, just not buying top ten at this point in his career.

Forte missed top ten last year but I think he could get in there, McCoy as well.

Just spitballing here

Charles

Richardson

Martin

ADP

Foster

Lynch

Rice

Morris

Spiller

McCoy

If you look at what the niners are trying to do and the running options they have, restricting Gore's workload just makes sense. With James a year older and if Hunter comes back fully, they'll be in a perfect position to change things up more, and they now have a true running threat at QB for a full season.

I think a healthy Bush vulturing TDs keeps Forte out, and I see Rice falling but not out of the top ten. If McCoy doesn't make it, I think that spot likely goes to Gore.

 

[zamboni]

Don't get me wrong, I'd certainly take Martin over Morris. But I think Richardson and Morris are about even. I don't think we'll see RG3 steal as many goal line TDs this year from Morris. Maybe he yards will be down some, but his TDs should stay the same. The Skins were a Top 5 offense and that was without Garcon for a good chunk and Fred Davis for most of the season.

Have to totally disagree on that one. Talent aside, one key difference is that the Skins need to be leading/within striking distance for Morris to get a lot of touches. If they have to go to pass mode, Morris is likely on the pine. At least you know with Richardson that no matter the situation, he's the offensive cornerstone and will be in there in all situations (barring late game blowouts on either side).

 

[Shanahanigans]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to think Miller will fail to live up to expectations. First and foremost is that expectations have been set way too high. I mean there's a guy predicting 1700+ yards in this thread. Other reasonable arguments include, but are not limited to, the fact that he has 57 career touches, his bad shoulder, his failures in pass protection, his 4th round pedigree, his mediocre surrounding cast, his upright running style, and the fact that he struggled in short yardage situations in college.

Obviously, I could be wrong. See Laurence Maroney and Matt Forte. I have been before, and I will be again, but the Shark Pool isn't about towing a line. It's about forming your own opinions of players and discussing it with others. Personally, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Lamar Miller's value will never be higher than this offseason.

Pardon me on the cross examination please.

1. So Miller will fail because a bunch of middle age guys set the bar too high in fantasy football? The bar is set too high in Miami on his actual team? I'm not sure this is a compelling reason for him to fail.

2. 57 career touches? He was a rookie last year and Miami decided to bring him along slowly for a variety of reasons but mainly he had a former #2 overall pick in Reggie Bush who was under contract for $5,000,000.00 vs the $500,000 that Miller was paid. Rookie could wait till year 2 from a n accounting standpoint plus Bush was one of the 2-3 stars for the Phins, had multiple TV deals while he was starting for Miami. I don't see how this is a drawback but some folks like to pound on it. If he had been in the league 3 years then I would say 57 career touches might matter more.

3. Bad shoulder? He had some shoulder concerns after his Junior year of college coming out in the draft but that is well behind him. You make it sound like he had a broken shoulder and would only have partial use of it the rest of his career, not true at all.

4. Pass protection? I will not argue this and he might not be the 3rd down back for Miami but he still will see a lot of carries and time on 1st and 2nd down. Who on Miami is going to leapfrog Miller if this is the worst part of his game right now? There isn't much pushing him, that might not sit well with you either.

5. 4th round pedigree? No one has ever made an impact from the 4th round and beyond at RB?

6. Surrounding cast? Tannehill is an up and coming player who is only scratching the surface, he has only played QB 3 full seasons in his entire career form what I have read. Wallace is a massive upgrade for speed and they turned a 1,000 yard receiver into their new No 2, they signed Dustin Keller, this team has a lot more offense than last year.

You post a lot, you have some great insights, I think you are not being open minded with Miller. You don't have to like him but there are many reasons that have owners or potential owners interested in what could happen with Miller. Might want to read the article over on CBS about Miller specifically, it is very informative and I thought a worthwhile read.

I wecome a cross-examination!

1 I am not saying he will fail completely. I am saying that expectations have been set so high, that it will be extremely unlikely for Miller to live up to them. If people were projecting 1000 rush yards and 200 receiving yards with 4-6 TDs it would be a lot easier for Miller to fulfill expectations. As it stands, a relatively large percentage of people are projecting him to be the next big thing. I disagree and don't think he will ever be more valuable than this offseason.

2 The 57 touch argument pertains more to the fact that he is yet to prove anything on the NFL level. I understand he was a rookie, but we have too small of a sample size to gather much of anything from what he has done in the NFL. If anything, his lack of touches should be concerning, as well as his failures in pass protection. The one thing that boosted his value in my eyes was that he didn't get hurt last year, but only having 57 touches could be construed as the primary reason he didn't get hurt. Because of this, I tend to defer to my analysis of him as a prospect coming out of college. I didn't like him then, and just because he fell into a starting roll doesn't mean I think he's going to be any better now.

3 I am no doctor, but in my experiences with shoulder injuries, the more times you injure your shoulder the more likely you will have a future injury to the same shoulder. Two things that scare me quite a bit in RBs are shoulder injuries and foot injuries, since they seem to have a higher likelihood of recurrence, and are extremely influential in RB performance.

4 In PPR lack of ability in pass protection is terrible for a RB, because if you're not on the field on third down, your reception total is going to go way down. Imo, Miller will never be a workhorse, so he needs to be on the field on third down to ever be fantasy relevant.

5 It has been widely discussed, and statistically proven on this site, primarily by ZWK and EBF, that draft position is one of, if not, the strongest indicator of future success in the NFL. This doesn't mean Miller is guaranteed to fail, just that he is much less likely to succeed than say David Wilson.

6 If you're going to argue that the Miami offense is better than mediocre be my guest, but don't expect me to agree with you.

I understand the intrigue with Miller, especially being a lover of speed myself. I have been referred to as the Al Davis of fantasy football by other owners in my league. However, I see a lot more Tatum Bell in Miller than I do Clinton Portis. I'll have no problem eating crow if I'm wrong, but when I see hype-trains like this getting out of control I have no problem being contrarian to the surging zeitgeist.

 

[Donnybrook]

Not expecting Reggie Bush to crash the top 10 party. I expect him to crash and burn. Seriously don't think the lions are a very good run blocking team.

 

[greggorymac]

Don't get me wrong, I'd certainly take Martin over Morris. But I think Richardson and Morris are about even. I don't think we'll see RG3 steal as many goal line TDs this year from Morris. Maybe he yards will be down some, but his TDs should stay the same. The Skins were a Top 5 offense and that was without Garcon for a good chunk and Fred Davis for most of the season.

Have to totally disagree on that one. Talent aside, one key difference is that the Skins need to be leading/within striking distance for Morris to get a lot of touches. If they have to go to pass mode, Morris is likely on the pine. At least you know with Richardson that no matter the situation, he's the offensive cornerstone and will be in there in all situations (barring late game blowouts on either side).

This is what concerns me. If the Skins are in catch up mode, they will use Helu exclusively for the series. I'm really struggling with what to make of Morris this year. He screams Rudi Johnson to me.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Anytime you have one of these conversations, you have to also answer the other side of the ledger. If you are going to put, say 2 of these guys, into the top 10, which two RBs are you going to take out, without using the "I just think he will get hurt" line. Which of these talented RBs, in the systems they are in, are going to fail to outproduce the guys you are wanting to put into the top 10?

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

And then you have all the new rookies everyone is loving in great spots

Gore - In FBG standard scoring he hasn't been top 10 since 2009 (though he was 11th/12th the past two years. And now he's 30. Excellent reliable RB2 IMO

Sproles - He's not a young man anymore, and in the FBG standard scoring he's been top 10 (10th) only once.

Steven Jackson - I'm a big fan and am targeting him as my hopeful RB2 in league or two, but I don't see Atlanta using him enough in the regular season to crack the top 10.

ppr: those are the same 3 I view as most likely to fall out.

non-ppr: my picks to fall would be Bush, Sproles, Forte, Jackson and Gore.

You guys expect Sproles to fall OUT in ppr? I think I would reconsider that and remember past the train wreck in Louisianna last year. Sproles was absolutely electric 2 years ago having just come over to New Orleans, in PPR.

Don't see how Sproles isn't top ten in PPR with Payton back.

Sproles is the Wes Welker of RBs in the Shark Pool. No respect at all. The guy is PPR gold due to his consistency and health. If it weren't for a flukey hand injury last year, he would have had very similar stats to two years ago. Imo, he's way undervalued in dynasty PPR, there's no reason to think he won't be a high end RB2, with RB1 upside, for the next 2-4 years.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Lamar Miller owners are in for a colossal dissappointment imo. Sell him before the first game of O

I love how many people have this opinion and have no reasonable argument to back it up. I'm not a Miller homer, my mind isn't made up yet.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to think Miller will fail to live up to expectations. First and foremost is that expectations have been set way too high. I mean there's a guy predicting 1700+ yards in this thread. Other reasonable arguments include, but are not limited to, the fact that he has 57 career touches, his bad shoulder, his failures in pass protection, his 4th round pedigree, his mediocre surrounding cast, his upright running style, and the fact that he struggled in short yardage situations in college.Obviously, I could be wrong. See Laurence Maroney and Matt Forte. I have been before, and I will be again, but the Shark Pool isn't about towing a line. It's about forming your own opinions of players and discussing it with others. Personally, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Lamar Miller's value will never be higher than this offseason.

I'm the guy who said 1700 total yards. Notwithstanding your opinion of Miller specifically, it shouldn't be that surprising for people in a thread about top ten crashers to cite numbers like that for the guys they think will get there. It happens very year. Last year it was Morris, Martin, and Spiller. In 2011, Ryan Mathews got 1600. In 2010, you had McCoy, Foster, McFadden, and Hillis all making that leap from way outside the consensus preseason top 10. Yes, it's folly to expect that of every RB in the league, but no one's doing that.

Fair enough.