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daveR

Footballguy
This story from ESPN has their NFL beat writers predicting each team's final record.  I know everyone's optimistic this time of year, but collectively they have the league at +66 wins.  YEESH!  

Having said that, there is tons of fodder for optimists, and lots of potential around the league.  A couple that stand out: TEN at 11-5, unlikely;  MIA 4-12, probable; INDY 11-5, maybe.

14 teams are predicted to have double-digit wins!

 
This story from ESPN has their NFL beat writers predicting each team's final record.  I know everyone's optimistic this time of year, but collectively they have the league at +66 wins.  YEESH!  

Having said that, there is tons of fodder for optimists, and lots of potential around the league.  A couple that stand out: TEN at 11-5, unlikely;  MIA 4-12, probable; INDY 11-5, maybe.

14 teams are predicted to have double-digit wins!
Titans at 11-5? I would bet 5-11 before 11-5. As for Indy, I know they are well ran and had a lot of success last season but they also played a super easy schedule and got career years out of several players. I see them as more of a 8 or 9 win team. 

 
daveR said:
This story from ESPN has their NFL beat writers predicting each team's final record.  I know everyone's optimistic this time of year, but collectively they have the league at +66 wins.  YEESH!  
That tells me all I need to know about that "list". 

At least inflated fantasy ratings are possible if league scoring goes up.

But win/loss records have to add up to zero or it's a joke.

 
The beat reporter for each team predicts the record of the team he or she covers. That's way different than if one person predicted the record of all 32 teams (where there would be a more concerted effort to have the league have a .500 record). It's nothing more than each team guy pimping up his or her team.

 
daveR said:
This story from ESPN has their NFL beat writers predicting each team's final record.  I know everyone's optimistic this time of year, but collectively they have the league at +66 wins.  YEESH!  

Having said that, there is tons of fodder for optimists, and lots of potential around the league.  A couple that stand out: TEN at 11-5, unlikely;  MIA 4-12, probable; INDY 11-5, maybe.

14 teams are predicted to have double-digit wins!
Yeah, it doesn't take that much effort to make the wins and losses add up. 

That said, I'm pretty ok with the Titans, Dolphins, and Colts projections. I really like the Titans. They lost a few games they should have won, some while starting dumpster fire Gabbert, and had a nice offseason. 

 
Yeah, it doesn't take that much effort to make the wins and losses add up. 
This really isn't that complicated. Ask a fan of the Colts what the Colts team record will be. Ask a fan of the Rams what the Rams team record will be. Now ask a single fan of the other 30 teams what their favorite team's record will be. Now add up those records from all 32 fans. That's exactly what ESPN did, but instead of using 32 fans, they asked beat writers that cover each team what their team will have for a record this year. There was no attempt to balance out the wins and losses. It wasn't scientific at all, they just asked someone, "Hey, how do you think your team will do this year" but did it 32 times.

 
So, part 2 of this discussion goes like this...

Where do the tiers break?  How many truly belong in the "double-digit wins" tier?  Who belongs in the ".500 more or less" tier?  Who belongs in "will not sniff 8-8"? 

 
The beat reporter for each team predicts the record of the team he or she covers. That's way different than if one person predicted the record of all 32 teams (where there would be a more concerted effort to have the league have a .500 record). It's nothing more than each team guy pimping up his or her team.
Yep, they do this article every year.  Every year people are up in arms about how it's impossible for these to all be right, and fail to realize it's written by a writer from each team simply predicting their own. 

 

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