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7.24.21 Aaron Rodgers - Sports Books Brace For Retirement Announcement Wednesday (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Just emailed to subscribers:  https://www.footballguys.com/article/2021-aaron-rodgers-retirement

Good Saturday morning to you. More drama with Aaron Rodgers, that #ComplicatedFella.

Here's the Bottom Line - Bill Huber of SI.com is reporting multiple sportsbooks believe Aaron Rodgers will announce his retirement before Wednesday's first practice of training camp. Here's more detail.
 

From the article by Huber: "Las Vegas sportsbooks are preparing for Aaron Rodgers to retire and not return to the Green Bay Packers.
 

"Because of the importance of the reigning NFL MVP, Westgate SuperBook recently closed all its NFC North markets, including projected wins, playoff odds, divisional odds and weekly lines for the four division teams, one oddsmaker at the sportsbook said via a Twitter direct message.
 

"Two other sportsbooks contacted after that initial message said the expectation is Rodgers is going to announce his retirement sometime before the first practice on Wednesday. In response, one of those sportsbooks pushed out its prices on the Packers to win the NFC North and shortened the odds for the other teams. It also shortened the odds of Patrick Mahomes winning NFL MVP."

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk added this:
 

"As one source with knowledge of the dynamics of the Rodgers situation said in response to these developments, “Vegas oddsmakers tend to be pretty sharp.” The source added that a lot of scenarios are in play, and “many, many factors” will be relevant to the outcome.
 

"Rodgers has kept his card close to the vest. A retirement for 2021 would make sense, since it would help him avoid up to $2 million in fines for holding out of training camp. However, he’d still lose a $6.8 million roster bonus earned in March and payable each week of the 2021 regular season. He’d also be subject to repayment of $11.5 million in unearned signing bonus money for 2021. (Some believe the Packers would never try to collect, or successfully recover, the $11.5 million.)
 

"He then could unretire in 2022, with the Packers trading him and Rodgers resuming his career."

Florio talked here back in June about how a brief retirement would give him more flexibility and be better for him financially than holding out.
 

Unless you're a Packers fan or drafting your fantasy team before Wednesday, this is mostly a curiosity or an interesting story. In some ways, if Rodgers were to actually retire, we'd have clarity sooner than if this turned into a long holdout. So we should have clarity on the retirement question soon.

If you are drafting before Wednesday or if you do need to make a roster decision with Rodgers, you don't get to just shrug your shoulders. You need to know what this means.
 

For me, it means the odds of Aaron Rodgers taking the field as the Week 1 Packers quarterback went from about 80% in my opinion yesterday to about 50% today.
 

And let's be clear, this "news" is based completely upon the sportsbooks taking NFC North bets off the board temporarily. There isn't an on-the-record quote from Rodgers or his agent or anyone right now. This is purely us reacting to the sportsbooks. On the flip side, sportsbooks are in the business of knowing things before the public that would affect win totals. And Aaron Rodgers' availability as the Packers QB would most definitely fall in that category of affecting win totals.
 

And another point for clarity: For the books to take NFC North bets off the board does not mean they know Rodgers is retiring. It means they have enough reason to believe Rodgers might retire that they don't want to risk the exposure on either side of the line until they know more. But it's a big deal. Books are literally in the business of taking bets and closing the window is significant.
 

And just to keep it even more intriguing, Matt Schneidman shared this note: "Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have the same Instagram story up right now" showing a picture of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen which has everyone thinking "The Last Dance".

Bottom line, I'm dropping my expectation of Rodgers to be the Week 1 starter in Green Bay down from 80% yesterday to 50% today. Which has of course ripple effects on the rest of the Packer players. Most notably Davante Adams who made his own news yesterday with long term contract talks breaking down.
 

And hopefully we'll have clarity soon. If you'd like to dive deep with everything we do at Footballguys, please check out the Premium Subscriptions where we give you everything we've got to help you win more at fantasy football. As always, there's a 30-day moneyback guarantee so there's zero risk.
 

Most of all, I hope you have a great Saturday. Thanks for being part of the Footballguys Family.

 
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Team Chaos

Footballguy
I get the impression that Rogers is pretty set on not playing for the Packers again and this is further confirmation. I say 25% chance is is on the field week 1 for the Packers. 

 

Obie Wan

Footballguy
a diva that craves the limelight

always a story, but the never caught on camera saying anything relevant to that story 

interesting - the source was not the usual leaker of Rodgers storylines

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Chaos. 

Q: if ARod retires, will there be a ripple effect for RL & FF?

Davante Adams looking for an extension - without ARod, might he hold out? 

Aaron Jones value without ARod?

Does Tonyan go from “likely decline but rosterable” to DND? 

Peripheral WRs un-rosterable? 

This week should be interesting. I still think he shows up on Tuesday. If not, #RIP packers season. 

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Davante Adams looking for an extension - without ARod, might he hold out? 
Players can’t really hold out anymore based on the new CBA. The only players who have done so in recent years are players that were franchise tagged and didn’t sign it - since they are not under contract they can’t be fined nor have their contracts tolled.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Players can’t really hold out anymore based on the new CBA. The only players who have done so in recent years are players that were franchise tagged and didn’t sign it - since they are not under contract they can’t be fined nor have their contracts tolled.
Good point. Listening to the radio they said the Packers would likely be franchise tagging Adams as well, so the ugliness in GB may continue to get uglier. 

This is all such a weird situation. 

 

kittenmittens

Footballguy
Could be win/win for both parties.  Rodgers avoids fines for sitting out camp. The Packers agree to not collect money Rogers owes them. He sits out 2021 and does whatever he wants and he has tons of options. The Packers get to see what they have in Love in 2021. The Packers get time to make the best trade in 2022 for Rodgers. This opens up a ton of options for the Packers. The Eagles are now in play if this happens along with everyone else that ends up needing a QB.  Miami, Washington,  Pittsburgh and any team that has a significant injury at the position. I can't see how this option has not been discussed.  I can not see a downside to something like this except you kick the 2021 season in the shins.  I'm being nice Joe. 😀
How is Rodgers sitting out a season a win for him or the packers????? 

Massive downside for all right there. 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Players can’t really hold out anymore based on the new CBA. The only players who have done so in recent years are players that were franchise tagged and didn’t sign it - since they are not under contract they can’t be fined nor have their contracts tolled.
The work around to avoiding daily fines is what NE is doing with Gilmore. They put him on the PUP. That makes him ineligible to practice and therefore he is not considered refusing to participate. So no fines for not showing up. He may actually be hurt still from last year, but that seems like a really extended time to be unable to play. 

Speculation around here is that Gilmore would magically be healthy enough to practice as soon as they work out his contract situation. 

 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Here is my break down of how this could be a good thing for both parties. Sure beats a hold out or full retirement. He can return as early as week 13 2021 if he wanted too.  He would unretire in 2022 and then be traded. If he was going to hold out anyway. How could retiring for 2021 not be a better option?

https://youtu.be/bP-LRAdvank
Is that you on video? If so, great job!

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
ok ,so can he retire on wednesday, and un-retire last week of preseason?? kinda gives the packers and rodgers time to wrk out the parameters of a new deal. gives them another 5 weeks or more. just wondering if that's an angle he's working.I agree with what someone else said, that a player in 37/38th year of age, isnt going to retire at this time to come back a year from now. just not happening he's not a freak of nature like Tom Brady.

it's either an Andrew luck type of thing ( worried about injury) or it's a carl edwards type of thing where he just wanted out of nascar.

 

Team Chaos

Footballguy
Chaos. 

Q: if ARod retires, will there be a ripple effect for RL & FF?

Davante Adams looking for an extension - without ARod, might he hold out? 

Aaron Jones value without ARod?

Does Tonyan go from “likely decline but rosterable” to DND? 

Peripheral WRs un-rosterable? 

This week should be interesting. I still think he shows up on Tuesday. If not, #RIP packers season. 
I don’t see how there wouldn’t be ripple effects. I would think all skill position players in Green Bay would lose value for fantasy football. 
 

I don’t know about holding out this year, but I would imagine Adams would be much less interested in resigning with Green Bay without Rodgers there. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I don’t see how there wouldn’t be ripple effects. I would think all skill position players in Green Bay would lose value for fantasy football. 
 

I don’t know about holding out this year, but I would imagine Adams would be much less interested in resigning with Green Bay without Rodgers there. 
Agree - part of me wonders abour AJones….

he either becomes more valuable with the team leaning on the run game, 

or

they start working in AJ Dillon more and more with an eye towards moving to the future. 

Man. I sure hope we have plenty of clarity on all of this soon. It’s gonna make drafting fantasy very interesting/risky.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Here is my break down of how this could be a good thing for both parties. Sure beats a hold out or full retirement. He can return as early as week 13 2021 if he wanted too.  He would unretire in 2022 and then be traded. If he was going to hold out anyway. How could retiring for 2021 not be a better option?

https://youtu.be/bP-LRAdvank
I’ve seen a few of your videos now and really enjoyed them. Nice work. I just subscribed 👍🏼

 

FairWarning

Footballguy
I think it’s a ploy so the Bears win 9 games and renew Nagy’s contract for 4 more years.  Rodgers comes back in ‘22 and goes 8-0 vs Chicago in those 4 years.

 

Hankmoody

Footballguy
Players can’t really hold out anymore based on the new CBA. The only players who have done so in recent years are players that were franchise tagged and didn’t sign it - since they are not under contract they can’t be fined nor have their contracts tolled.
It hardly affects Rodgers.  The new language prevents players from accruing a year of seniority if they don't report but Rodgers doesn't care about that.  It's a real threat to the young RB it was being discussed about a lot with Cook and Mixon in particular needing that year of seniority to become UFA rather than RFA in 2022.  But an old dog like Rodgers, especially if he's real about retiring, won't be swayed by this.

 

elguapo07

Footballguy
Here is my break down of how this could be a good thing for both parties. Sure beats a hold out or full retirement. He can return as early as week 13 2021 if he wanted too.  He would unretire in 2022 and then be traded. If he was going to hold out anyway. How could retiring for 2021 not be a better option?

https://youtu.be/bP-LRAdvank
Pretty good.  I like 10-15 min shorts on all things football and baseball so I will be following. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
“AARON RODGERSQB, GREEN BAY PACKERS

ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio reports "at least one team that has interest" in Aaron Rodgers believes he wants $90 million guaranteed over two years.

It explains why Rodgers rejected a five-year contract that would have made him the highest-paid quarterback. The upfront guarantees would prevent the Packers from moving on from Rodgers until at least 2023, giving him a better structure than his current deal. There continues to be conflicting reports on Rodgers, with some suggesting he wants years taken off his deal. Sitting out 2021 also remains in play for the reigning MVP.”

$90 million?!

GB should rebuild. He out his damn mind. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
“If you’re not going to surround me with talent, I’ll ####### do it myself. But if I’m doing it myself I’m going to damn well be paid to do it myself”
Now I’m picturing Rodgers as Bill O’Riley “f it, we’ll doit live!!” 

:lol:  

 
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CletiusMaximus

Footballguy
Wasn't it a few months ago the bookmakers reportedly took down all Russel Wilson/NFC West related futures because they knew he was going to the Bears?  I tend to be somewhat cynical about these reports.  If these companies were subject to FINRA/SEC-style regulations like broker/dealers are regarding publicly traded stocks (a highly comparable market to sports futures gambling imo), I think this kind of thing would be illegal.  I really wonder how much action this publicity is generating from unsophisticated gamblers at the great majority of betting outlets who have not closed anything.

I guess, if they really "believe" something or have some unreported information, wouldn't they exploit that situation by offering attractive lines rather than just shutting down entire markets?  It rings false to me.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Wasn't it a few months ago the bookmakers reportedly took down all Russel Wilson/NFC West related futures because they knew he was going to the Bears?  I tend to be somewhat cynical about these reports.  If these companies were subject to FINRA/SEC-style regulations like broker/dealers are regarding publicly traded stocks (a highly comparable market to sports futures gambling imo), I think this kind of thing would be illegal.  I really wonder how much action this publicity is generating from unsophisticated gamblers at the great majority of betting outlets who have not closed anything.

I guess, if they really "believe" something or have some unreported information, wouldn't they exploit that situation by offering attractive lines rather than just shutting down entire markets?  It rings false to me.
This was the only one I recall framing it in those terms.this was at the height of the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson falling out

https://fansided.com/2021/03/11/chicago-bears-russell-wilson-trade-vegas-odds/

 

ffmail4me

Footballguy
If he somehow ended up in Denver or Washington, you are looking at legit contenders IMO. Make it happen Dan! I mean, Dan's wife!!! ;)

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
If he somehow ended up in Denver or Washington, you are looking at legit contenders IMO. Make it happen Dan! I mean, Dan's wife!!! ;)
Well sure, but there’s no way GB trades him now. The 2021 draft is over. 

So let’s say they deal him to one of those spots - what do they get back? Draft picks that won’t be very good because as you suggest, they're now a legit contender. 

So….what’s the incentive for GB to deal him? That they get back a bottom 12 pick or 2? Meh. 

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
I suspect people will keep beating this horse into the dust until/unless Cousins wins a Super Bowl.

I do have to be careful about poking fun at Rodgers though as he might be a Viking in a couple years if Kirk fails to deliver.
Not really beating a dead horse, didn’t think Cousins was so highly regarded. Just out of curiosity, where would you rank him among NFL starters?

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Holy ####, Aaron is pulling a Brett with this whole will-he-won't-he retire bit.

Someone start printing Rodgers Jets unis!
Crazy, right?!

I’m having visions of him recklessly throwing off his back foot for a backbreaking Hail Mary to the back of the end zone against my Niners. 🤢 

 

matuski

Footballguy
Favre didn't stay retired either
Right.. only you thought he might.

This is clearly not a retirement at all, only a ruse to avoid fines and to make life harder on the Packers.  An "abuse" of the definiton of retirement.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Favre didn't stay retired either
Maybe it’s like those Final Destination movies where every GB QB will follow the Favre path. Will he/won’t he? Retires. Unretires, goes to the AFC, comes back to the division to play against the packers. 

Destiny. 

🎶 There is someone walking behind you
Turn around, look at me
There is someone watching your footsteps
Turn around, look at me

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Not really beating a dead horse, didn’t think Cousins was so highly regarded. Just out of curiosity, where would you rank him among NFL starters?
That doesnt have anything to do with Cousins success or lack there of that you were refrercing.

That's about all you would hear anyone on ESPN and so on in regards to Cousins until he won against the Saints.

So while I realize you were joking, bringing that up again is annoying to me.

Technically you are correct that Goff made it to the Super Bowl and Cousins hasn't yet.

As far as fantasy football goes the Vikings were a top 5 offense last season, but part of the reason for that was because the defense was so bad they had to be to win games. So how well they do this year might be worse than that as I do expect their defense to he greatly improved.

There are hidden yards to be considered here as well in the form of special teams which were awful last year.

If Westbrook is fully healthy they should he much better returning punts for example and the offense doesn't have to do as much if it is.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
The good old Farvian ending. Classic Green Bay Packer QB career path. 💡 
Nothing in football has turned my world upside down as much as Favre being a Viking.

I had to stop playing fantasy football for a few years in part because of this. When that happened I realized I didn't know jack about what was going on in the NFL.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Nothing in football has turned my world upside down as much as Favre being a Viking.

I had to stop playing fantasy football for a few years in part because of this. When that happened I realized I didn't know jack about what was going on in the NFL.
I can imagine. At least when Montana was off the Niners he never came back to haunt us. 

 

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