In the most extreme example, if you created a 2-team league that started 16 QBs, 24 RBs, 32 WRs, and 16 TEs each, then I think that would be the league with the lowest luck-factor possible. One stud can no longer carry your team, one injury can no longer sink your team, and suddenly it becomes all about whose projections were best.
SSOG, I love your posts, but I disagree with this assessement. Here is why:Consistency is very difficult to predict. Even if you hit your projections accurately, they could be the result of four or five big performances, five or six mediocre ones and five or six substandard games. Luck is when your WR catches a pass at the 1/2 yard line and his QB sneaks in for the six points, so you lose.
Two teams could have the same yardage gained, receptions, TD's scored, et al, but one team could win 10 out of sixteen games because the other team had six huge weeks to accumulate identical the same stats as its opponent over a season.
I never said you could eliminate the luck factor, just that it would give the lowest luck factor imagineable. And it WOULD. Obviously, if two teams were exactly perfectly even in every regard, then every single game would be decided by luck. However, if one fantasy football player is inherently better than another FF player, then over the long run, that difference will win out and his squad will be better.Let's put this in the most extreme example possible. Let's say that you and I play a league where we start one player. You draft Johnson, and I draft Tomlinson. I would call this the league with the HIGHEST "luck factor". One injury anywhere on the Chiefs or Chargers would destroy someone's season. Random fluctuations would destroy someone's season. A huge game with a bunch of good games compared to a season of great games could destroy someone's season. It's a game of chance at that point.
Now, if we add a second RB, some of the luck factor goes out of it. If we add a third, even more luck factor goes out. If we add a fourth, some more luck factor goes out. Finally, once we get to the point where we're starting 24 RBs each, the vast majority of the luck factor is gone. Your #1 RB could go for 400 more yards and 11 more TDs than my RB1, but if my RB2-24 outperform your RB2-24 by just 20 yards each and 10 total touchdowns, I'd still win the week (whereas with fewer starters, your one fluky RB week would totally destroy my chances of winning).
I'm not saying that it's possible to create a league where luck isn't a factor at all. I'm just saying that, in terms of long-run probabilities, the more choices and instances there are, the less luck becomes a factor. I mean, what are your chances of flipping heads every time if you flip a coin once? Now what are they if you flip it a million times? That's not to say it's not POSSIBLE to flip heads a million times in a row, it's just that the more times you flip, the more likely all "luck" averages out and you're left with a true representation (in the case of the coin, a true representation of the odds of flipping heads or tails. In the case of our huge fantasy football teams, a true representation of who is the more talented fantasy football player).
I stand by my statement. A two-team league that starts 16 QBs, 24 RBs, 32 WRs, 16 TEs, 16 PKs, and 16 D/STs would have the lowest possible luck factor of any fantasy league I can currently imagine.