A closer look at Ray Horton's defense (1 Viewer)

[BuckeyeChaos]

I was pretty hyped for Mingo coming to Cleveland with the new attacking style 3-4 hybrid brought in by Ray Horton. A closer look had me scratching my head a bit since it was an ILB in Washington that was used to bring pressure and rack up tackles. The OLB didn't seem to do so much. This got me thinking "is there something in this scheme that differs from PIT where I thought it came from?" Who are the LBers to own in Cleveland's new defensive scheme?

 

[Seany.D]

I was pretty hyped for Mingo coming to Cleveland with the new attacking style 3-4 hybrid brought in by Ray Horton. A closer look had me scratching my head a bit since it was an ILB in Washington that was used to bring pressure and rack up tackles. The OLB didn't seem to do so much. This got me thinking "is there something in this scheme that differs from PIT where I thought it came from?" Who are the LBers to own in Cleveland's new defensive scheme?

Mingo's worth owning, but yeah, you will likely see more inside pressure (than you would from most teams) from the ILB's in this defense. As Bramel has pointed out already this off-season that Daryl Washington wasn't going to have a sack total close to what he had a year ago, because Horton was leaving and the new coordinator isn't expect to pressure inside as much.

This could set DQ up for a monster season.

I'm also curious to see what happens between last years rookies Robinson and JMJ. I would figure JMJ is better suited for run support and possibly the aggressive attacking style, Horton likes. That said, Robinson had the better rookie season and is likely to get the first shot to start opposite DQ, as he's projected to be a better on passing downs than JMJ.

My problem with Robinson is he doesn't seem big enough for run support in this style of defense, inside. Thoughts anyone?

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

It's Robertson and he's 229 so I share your concerns about him holding up against the run in a 3-4.

Part of the reason he had a better 2012 is JMJ was hurt for a significant portion of the year.

 

[Seany.D]

It's Robertson and he's 229 so I share your concerns about him holding up against the run in a 3-4.

Part of the reason he had a better 2012 is JMJ was hurt for a significant portion of the year.

oh yeah, your right.

Correct me if I'm wrong plasma because I had JMJ and I kept an eye on this situation last year.

If I'm not mistaken, JMJ was injured during the second half of the season, Robertson was making an impact from early on. Seems like it was more than the injury, but then again you did say "part of the reason."

 

[Bracie Smathers]

BuckeyeChaos, on 14 May 2013 - 11:58, said:

I was pretty hyped for Mingo coming to Cleveland with the new attacking style 3-4 hybrid brought in by Ray Horton. A closer look had me scratching my head a bit since it was an ILB in Washington that was used to bring pressure and rack up tackles. The OLB didn't seem to do so much. This got me thinking "is there something in this scheme that differs from PIT where I thought it came from?" Who are the LBers to own in Cleveland's new defensive scheme?

Listen to Ross Tucker's Football Podcast with guest Greg Cossell right after the draft when the two went over every first round selection.Cossell provides keen insight into the Mingo pick by the Browns. Tucker was waaaaaaay off from well before the draft when he kept saying the Browns HAD to take CB Dee Milliner so he starts off going in the wrong direction off into the woods where Tucker felt the selection of Mingo meant that the Browns would be trading OLB/DE Jabaal Sheard before Cossell smacked him about the head and neck with the truth. Tucker still doesn't quite get what the Browns are doing and it appears that others are also lost on what direction the team is headed defensively but this podcast is a great place to start to understand how Ray Horton will utilize OLB/DE Barkevious Mingo.

Tucker begins to whine about the Browns already having Paul Kruger and Jabaal Sheard at OLB and he also horks his pimp of CB Dee Milliner and then Tucker attempts to speculate about Sheard being traded but Cossell strongly cuts him off and says NO!

Cossell says Mingo will fill the role of the 'JOKER' in Horton's defense where Ray will move him all around. He sums up Barkevious' skill set by saying; "He's an explosive straight-line speed-guy."

Go to a 'lil after' the 4:00 minute mark of the audio to hear what they say about the Browns pick, they only do the first round so that portion is less than one minute long. The entire podcat is a good listen so if you have the time then give it a listen, good stuff.

http://www.sportsusamedia.com/_blog/Ross_Tucker_Football_Podcast/post/4-26-13-first-round-draft-review/

look at Horton's scheme in Arizona, the guy who was his 'JOKER' was Daryl Washington because he was the only guy with that sort of explosion and speed. Washington had 9 sacks last year. The next best sacker was DE Calias Cambell with 6.5 but obviously he wasn't playing 'JOKER' from the D-Line. No other Zona LBer had more than 4 sacks so the 'JOKER' got the bulk of the sacks/pressure in Arizona's defense however the Browns have three guys who can get to the QB in, Jabaal Shear, Paul Kruger, and Barkevious Mingo.

- Kruger stands 6'4 and weighs in very solidly at 270 lbs

- Sheard 6'3 and wieghs a solid at 255 lbs

- Mingo 6'4 and wieghs in at only 237 lbs

It seems that Kruger and Sheard have the stoutness to be in more often on rushing downs and it seems Mingo will be weaned in on sub packages where he very likely will be the 'JOKER' and he will be moved around to exploit any weakness along the O-Line where he can get one-to-one matchups on TEs or on slow O-linemen but if opposing OC's begin to slide blocking protection schemes his way then either, Sheard or Kruger and/or D'Qwell or the D-Linemen will take advantage.

So I'd caution anyone who is projecting high IDP numbers for Mingo, at least for his rookie season.

I think he's too light right now to man-up on running downs and he probably does need to add strength to his lateral tackles because it seemed to me that a lot of guys ran right thru his arm tackles when he was engaged with a blocker and was reaching out to make a tackle.

I have a lot more to add on Mingo because I love the pick but I do not expect high production numbers this year. It could happen where he instantly turns into a sack master but I doubt it happens this year. Look at the numbers last year with Bruce Irvin who was considered light and he wasn't a starter but he was in as a designated pass rusher on sub packages.

- Bruce Irvin 6'3 and 245 lbs

Irvin only had 10 solos with 7 assist but he had a solid 8 sacks

Some people falsely assume that Mingo will or should equal the numbers of Aldon Smith, UM NO! Aldon Smith came in weighing 263 lbs, his rookie season he had 14 sacks and then followed that up with 19.5 and he was the Defensive MVP last year so no way in hell shoul anyone in thier right mind expect those HOF type numbers from Mingo.

Mingo weighs 8 lbs less than Irivn and 16 lbs less than Aldon Smith and he's not only a rookie but the Browns have two OLBers who outweigh him. Sheard outweighs Mingo by 18 lbs and Kruger outweighs him by 43 lbs so obviously Ray Horton won't plug in Mingo on rushing downs.

I would not expect Mingo to start but only be used on sub packages like Bruce Irvin was last year in Seattle and Irivin's tackle numbers were really low but his sack numbers were solid for the role he was playing.

I would anticipate low tackle numbers for Mingo with sack numbers in the 6 to 9 range, IOWs, not IDP worthy numbers at least for THIS YEAR.

Next year with a full offseason workout and a legit shot to add at least 8 to 12 lbs of muscle I think he will move into significantly more playing time with an expected uptick in numbers accross the board.

 

[MAC_32]

I really don't think there is a great LB to own in Cleveland's 3-4, our current LB's don't fit it well at all. I think there will eb a lot of sub packages to mask their deficiencies and in the end of the day the only one seeing almost every snap is DQ - problem is his tendency to get swallowed up vs. the run in the 3-4 as what happened to him regularly when Cleveland used to run that defense.

If I were a DQ owner, I'm looking for a sell opportunity sometime this offseason.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

A couple years ago people were missing out on SS TJ Ward's value and I gave a head's up due to the system he would be playing in.

A year later I gave a head's up on LB D'Qwell Jackson due to the Browns system changing and where he'd be covered by DTs.

That was an IDP analysis due to the system change.

This system in an attacking-aggressive scheme, its not a mamby-pamby hide deficiencies scheme as you paint it. Its the exact opposiite. Its built to attack and the Browns landed three guys who are built for the scheme, OLB/DE Paul Kruger, DE Desmond Bryant, and OLB/DE Barkevious Mingo.

The Browns haven't had an edge pass rusher with the, explosion, speed, and athleticism, of Mingo since the days of Chip Banks and he had off-field issues that lead to his downfall. Mingo has no character concerns.

The linebackers are vastly improved over last year.

Out goes old and injury prone and slow but great locker room guy and leader OLB Scott Fujita, out goes slow and coming off achilles injury and over paid but good in short yardage OLB Scott Gocong. Out goes non-athletic and very limit but solid special teamer OLB Kaluka Maiava.

We moved our only proven pass rusher who has the size and speed and the athleticism to Fujita's spot and we know he can play UP moving forward to attack the QB. We will have to see if he can or can't drop and cover but he actually had limited coverage duties in the flat. Kruger has more pass rush than Gocong and he's faster and can cover more ground so he's an upgrade. Barkevious has tremendous upside but I'm tempering all expectations till he puts on a few pounds. Having said that about Keke, just saw this.

OLB/DE Cameron Wake

6'2 and only 235 lbs

In 2011 Wake had

- 9 sacks

- 20 hits

- 52 hurries

- 82 total pressures

Last year in 2012 Wake had

- 17 sacks

- 23 hits

- 46 hurries

- 86 total pressures

So even though I'd like Mingo to pack on 8 to 12 lbs, Cameron Wake proves that a 3-4 OLB/DE can be highly effective even if he's not pushing 245 to 265 lbs.

I personally don't care if their are any IDP stars on the Browns defense. I love the plan and how it has come together on paper and I think it will be successful on the field. It may take a year but I love the scheme and the linebackers in the scheme.

 

[ummich10]

Great discussion here.

Bracie, I picked up Desmond Bryant month or two ago thinking he might fill the Calais Campbell role. Do you see that happening, and do you think he can put up stats similar to Campbell?

Thanks

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Great discussion here.Bracie, I picked up Desmond Bryant month or two ago thinking he might fill the Calais Campbell role. Do you see that happening, and do you think he can put up stats similar to Campbell?Thanks

I don't think that anyone in the NFL is like Calias Cambell. He's REALLY GOOD. So I'd be hard pressed to compare anyone to Calias.

Des Bryant was a suprise FA signing to me and many Browns fans so I did a lil digging on him.

He finished last season with 4 sacks in the last 4 games on a team where it would have been easy to quit on.

He's got great, size, good speed and strength.

The problem with any projection of IDP points from the Cleveland D-Line is that Horton has a 3-4 base and the Browns have four starting caliber guys, Desmond Bryant, Ahtyaba Rubin, Phil Taylor, Billy Wynn, along with a couple of talented backups so you can safely assume a heavy rotation which makes projecting individual production really difficult.

I honestly don't know what to expect from Bryant but I think Calias Cambell is a top caliber NFL DE.

I wouldn't put Bryant on his level and to be perfectly honest I don't know what to expect from him or any of the D-Linemen in this system.

 

[MAC_32]

Oh, I don't take issue with the new style of defense. I am just irked that they're forcing it upon the team when we don't have the ILB personnel to effectively run it yet. We should improve vs. the pass, but will continue to struggle vs. the run and for a team often playing from behind in the 4th quarter that's a huge problem.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Oh, I don't take issue with the new style of defense. I am just irked that they're forcing it upon the team when we don't have the ILB personnel to effectively run it yet. We should improve vs. the pass, but will continue to struggle vs. the run and for a team often playing from behind in the 4th quarter that's a huge problem.

Well, last year. With the injuries to Gocong and Fujita and then in the very last preseason game to James Michael Johnson injured his oblique and was hindered pretty-much all year. JMJ was a mid-level draft pick and many were high on him and he had a great camp and preseason and he was scheduled to start before his injury.

JMJ's injury forced us to start a comination of free agents, Craig Robertson, LJ Fort, and Tank Cader. They all played shockenly well considering the circumstances. Craig Roberston looks like a solid cover LB and both Fort and Cader played the run well. We still haven't seen the best of JMJ.

Call me nutz but I feel confident that those FOUR young guys along with D'Qwell that we are in good shape at both middle linebacker positions.

 

[MAC_32]

Oh, I don't take issue with the new style of defense. I am just irked that they're forcing it upon the team when we don't have the ILB personnel to effectively run it yet. We should improve vs. the pass, but will continue to struggle vs. the run and for a team often playing from behind in the 4th quarter that's a huge problem.

Well, last year. With the injuries to Gocong and Fujita and then in the very last preseason game to James Michael Johnson injured his oblique and was hindered pretty-much all year. JMJ was a mid-level draft pick and many were high on him and he had a great camp and preseason and he was scheduled to start before his injury.

JMJ's injury forced us to start a comination of free agents, Craig Robertson, LJ Fort, and Tank Cader. They all played shockenly well considering the circumstances. Craig Roberston looks like a solid cover LB and both Fort and Cader played the run well. We still haven't seen the best of JMJ.

Call me nutz but I feel confident that those FOUR young guys along with D'Qwell that we are in good shape at both middle linebacker positions.

JMJ has the same problem all of our ILB's do in the 3-4 - size. You can function with one under sized LB inside but not both.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

JMJ has the same problem all of our ILB's do in the 3-4 - size. You can function with one under sized LB inside but not both.

I would agree with you if that was true but its not.

James Michael Johnson 6'1 and 238 lbs

Patrick Willis 6'1 and 240 lbs

JMJ is basically the exact same size as Patrick Willis who is widely considered one of the best if not the best 3-4 middle linebacker in the game today.

Johnson is not undersized at all.

 

[MAC_32]

JMJ has the same problem all of our ILB's do in the 3-4 - size. You can function with one under sized LB inside but not both.

I would agree with you if that was true but its not.

James Michael Johnson 6'1 and 238 lbs

Patrick Willis 6'1 and 240 lbs

JMJ is basically the exact same size as Patrick Willis who is widely considered one of the best if not the best 3-4 middle linebacker in the game today.

Johnson is not undersized at all.

JMJ is nowhere near as strong as Willis...and Bowman for that matter.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

JMJ has the same problem all of our ILB's do in the 3-4 - size. You can function with one under sized LB inside but not both.

I would agree with you if that was true but its not.

James Michael Johnson 6'1 and 238 lbs

Patrick Willis 6'1 and 240 lbs

JMJ is basically the exact same size as Patrick Willis who is widely considered one of the best if not the best 3-4 middle linebacker in the game today.

Johnson is not undersized at all.

JMJ is nowhere near as strong as Willis...and Bowman for that matter.

Sigh.

Cold hard facts are hard to deny but easy to look up.

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Patrick&l=Willis&i=7838

Patrick Willis NFL Combine Results

Bench Press: 22 reps (225 lb)

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=James-Michael&l=Johnson&i=9949

James-Michael Johnson NFL Combine Results

Bench Press: 23 reps (225 lb)

 

[MAC_32]

Weight room strength and functional strength are not the same thing.

Edit: This is like those that try to constantly compare WR's to Percy Harvin. No one his size is close to as strong as him, even if they workout similarly. On the field in pads is just so, so much different. JMJ has the potential and the ability to play inside, but to expect it at this point would be foolish. We're expecting him to make that transition this year, instead of playing wait-and-see. That's a mistake. Once he shows us something to believe he could play that role, cool, but he needs to show it first. He already plays fast, but strong inside? Haven't seen it. Prove it.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Mac,

You say the Browns don't have the inside guys to run Horton's system.

We have D'Q.

We have, JMJ, Craig Robertson, LJ Fort, Tank Cader.

You then said JMJ was undersized, he's not. You then claim he's not strong enough but he is.

Now you claim he lacks functional strength.

Considering I don't agree with any of your previous claims and basically showed the numbers that don't agree but now you have made a claim without any way to prove or disprove your statement.

I don't have the numbers to disprove your statement but I don't agree.

We're fine at inside linebacker.

 

[MAC_32]

Why have we consistently been run over the last seevral years up the middle then? You could argue it was our DL for a while, but as that has beefed up it's becoming more and more apparent LB is the issue. You're using height, weight, and bench press to support your case. I'm using the product on the field. I think the field product is 10x more important than the underwear olympics. Stop someone in the 4th quarter and then I can believe we have the guys to man up vs. the run. We couldn't do it in a 4-3 which is friendlier for LB's, the 3-4 is more difficult, why should I believe we will improve in a more difficult (and new) scheme?

 

[Seany.D]

Mac,

You say the Browns don't have the inside guys to run Horton's system.

We have D'Q.

We have, JMJ, Craig Robertson, LJ Fort, Tank Cader.

You then said JMJ was undersized, he's not. You then claim he's not strong enough but he is.

Now you claim he lacks functional strength.

Considering I don't agree with any of your previous claims and basically showed the numbers that don't agree but now you have made a claim without any way to prove or disprove your statement.

I don't have the numbers to disprove your statement but I don't agree.

We're fine at inside linebacker.

Like what your saying Bracie, but I think Mac is right if he's saying we need to see more from JMJ before you can say the Browns are fine inside.

He does need to prove he can do it, first for a full game in the NFL, inside. Two, he needs to prove he can stay healthy, some guys just can't holdup at the pro level.

Don't have a subscription to PFF anymore, but does anyone know the highest snap could JMJ totaled in any game, let alone any snaps inside last year? Think he was on the strong-side in the 4-3 a season ago, but if memory serves me correct, he was an middle linebacker in college, so that's encouraging.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Does someone really need numbers to back up a claim that James-Michael Johnson isn't anywhere near as good as Patrick Willis?

Pro tip: The answer is no, they don't. That's just a truth.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

If people look at **** Juron's defense or Romeo's or Mangini's and think that what happened in the past is what the players and coaches are then that thinking isn't grounded in reality.

If people automatically make false claims that we don't have the inside guys when we do. They then say our guys are undersized when they aren't. Or say our guys lack strength when they don't, then you can side with that thinking.

The coaching is not the same, the personnel has been upgraded.

The emphasis of the defense isn't to satisfy certain team metrics like average per rush against or total rush yards againts, that was Juron's thought process.

The thread is about Ray Horton's defense and his scheme is based on pressuring the QB and attacking the offense and forcing the offense to adjust to the defense rather than reading and reacting to what the offense does.

The metrics will be funky, who cares? That isn't the point and its certainly not a concern so its false to focus in on something that isn't of importance.

Mac is not getting what the defense is all about and he's been raising the wrong concerns.

Look at what Horton did in Zona.

That team won its first four games before the bottom fell out but it wasn't the defense that lead to only one more victory of the course of the final 11 games, it obviously was the offense.

Horton's D had 38 sacks, not great but consider the offense surrendered 58 SACKS!

They went thru a couple of QBs because they kept getting injurd and were constantly under pressure. IOWs not Ray Horton's fault.

Over the final 12 games, the lone victory was the one game that they scored more than 20 points.

The sort of aggressive attack defense is based on 'key' game situations, third and long, fourth quarter, red zone, points in the game that are crucial to the outcome.

Its not about focusing in on a team metric like avg per rush or something that isn't what the defense is based on. Its about key situations in the game, the scheme works but not alone. You have to win the pressure contest and our O-Line is far suprior to what they had in Arizona last year. Protecting our QB isn't the only key to victories, the offense has to generate points. I'd say we have an excellent chance to beat anyone if our offense scores more than 20 points.

Just look at what Arizona did in the second game of last year.

2 Sun September 16 boxscore W 2-0 @ New England Patriots 20 18

Beat New England.

IN FOXBUROW.

Didn't shut them out but the offense scored enough and the defense got pressure when it counted.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Does someone really need numbers to back up a claim that James-Michael Johnson isn't anywhere near as good as Patrick Willis?

Pro tip: The answer is no, they don't. That's just a truth.

Yeah, that is what was claimed, um not.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Maybe not outright, but you're intimating that same size/same bench press reps in shorts and shells equates the ability to stack and shed in 3-4 as good as Willis does.

It absolutely doesn't.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Maybe not outright, but you're intimating that same size/same bench press reps in shorts and shells equates the ability to stack and shed in 3-4 as good as Willis does.

It absolutely doesn't.

Please.

Mac is channelling Chicken Little saying the Browns lack inside linebackers because HE CLAIMED they were too small and weak.

Pittsburgh's two starting inside linebackers.

- Larry Foote 6'1 and 239 lbs

- Laurence Timmons 6'1 and 234 lbs

Mac claims you can have ONE undersized inside linebacker but not two.

He'd basically tell you that the Steelers can't win with your two inside linebackers due to them both being undersized.

 

[Seany.D]

Title of my next Motivational Book - "Channeling Your Inner Chicken Little"

- sorry couldn't help myself after reading about Mac channeling chicken little.

 

[MAC_32]

Timmons, like Willis, is a special player. None of our ilbs are. The old scheme was built around the line and dbs, idea being to patch the lbs together without investing much outside of dq. Horton is using the same cost efficient lbs and now they are magically supposed to get better? Way too much expectations on a day three guy that had minimal impact last year.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Why have we consistently been run over the last seevral years up the middle then? You could argue it was our DL for a while, but as that has beefed up it's becoming more and more apparent LB is the issue. You're using height, weight, and bench press to support your case. I'm using the product on the field. I think the field product is 10x more important than the underwear olympics. Stop someone in the 4th quarter and then I can believe we have the guys to man up vs. the run. We couldn't do it in a 4-3 which is friendlier for LB's, the 3-4 is more difficult, why should I believe we will improve in a more difficult (and new) scheme?

I don't have numbers in front of me but I would submit part of our problem on defense stemmed from the offense not staying on the field long enough to give our guys a blow coupled with the fact that teams were ahead and pounding the run. That takes its toll in the 4th quarter.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I don't have numbers in front of me but I would submit part of our problem on defense stemmed from the offense not staying on the field long enough to give our guys a blow coupled with the fact that teams were ahead and pounding the run. That takes its toll in the 4th quarter.

Injuries hit us harder than a typical NFL team last year:

1) DT Phil Taylor due to a pec tear in off-season workouts months prior to the season where he missed training camp and preseason and didn't play until a late November game against Oakland

2) OLB Scott Gocong injured in training camp, tore achilles, missed entire season.

3) OLB Scott Fujita, faced suspension due to bounty-gate with Saints but then was injured after only playing in first game and never really was on the field again.

Three starters gone before the season began then factor in the suspension to:

- CB Joe Haden had a four game suspension hanging over his head due to adderall useage so he played the first game but then was lost for a month and when he came back he got injured, likely due to missing a month of football and not being able to work out with the team.

Other guys missed games due to adderall but Haden got two weeks longer than any other NFL player. BS IMHO. I list him as an unusual absence.

Injuries forced guys who would have never seen the feild into action. DT Billy Wynn, DT John Hughes. At linebacker we not only lost both starters in Fujita and Gocong but in the final presason game James Michael Johnson got injjured and was not healthy the rest of the year.

The replacements didn't get starts in the usual way of slowly progressing and learning where they earned starts. They were forced into starting before they were ready.

When Phil Taylor came back the run defense instantly improved but fellow starting DT Ahytaba Rubin got injured and missed three games only a week after being re-united wtih Taylor so the timing was unusual.

Taking unusual injuries and unusual suspensions and also factor in the timing of injuries that forced rookies and street free agents into starting roles before they were ready is the biggest reason why the defense struggled. Those losses were not typical.

Last year benefited the young players because they got valuable reps in practice and playing time and starts. That experience exposed their strengths and weaknesses to the coaches.

We probably have more young linebackers with PT than most NFL teams. Having that many young players whose strengths and weaknesses to choose from is a strength to any new coaching staff because they have the benefit of how to use them.

We're fine at inside linebacker. We have four guys for the coaches to choose from to fill one linebacking spot.

I think the complaints of Mac are great because it allows the opportunity to show how the front seven of the Browns stack up favorably to the rest of the league for the first time since the return.

 

[MAC_32]

Why have we consistently been run over the last seevral years up the middle then? You could argue it was our DL for a while, but as that has beefed up it's becoming more and more apparent LB is the issue. You're using height, weight, and bench press to support your case. I'm using the product on the field. I think the field product is 10x more important than the underwear olympics. Stop someone in the 4th quarter and then I can believe we have the guys to man up vs. the run. We couldn't do it in a 4-3 which is friendlier for LB's, the 3-4 is more difficult, why should I believe we will improve in a more difficult (and new) scheme?

I don't have numbers in front of me but I would submit part of our problem on defense stemmed from the offense not staying on the field long enough to give our guys a blow coupled with the fact that teams were ahead and pounding the run. That takes its toll in the 4th quarter.

Well, our offensive personnel isn't much different than last year. A season wiser with a veteran wr to replace the veteran te but that's really it. Scheme can't be any worse but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be better either. Usually takes a year to adjust and by then we will probably have a different qb.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Well, our offensive personnel isn't much different than last year. A season wiser with a veteran wr to replace the veteran te but that's really it. Scheme can't be any worse but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be better either. Usually takes a year to adjust and by then we will probably have a different qb.

I won't completely hijack a thread that is supposed to take a closer look at Ray Horton's defense into a full fledged Browns personnel thread so I wil contribute directly to the topic after addressing the statement that the offensive perssonnel isn't much different from that of last year.

True on one account, the names are the same. False in assuming that if the personnell isn't much different that we should assume the same production. Plain and simple, we drafted RB Trent Richardson and assumed that rookie would start the season. We drafted QB Brandon Weeden and assumed that rookie would start the season. We drafted ORT Mitchell Schwartz and assumed that rookie would start the season. Never in the history of the NFL had a team ever started a rookie, QB with a rookie RB and a rookie ORT. Add in supplemental rookie WR Josh Gordon who started three weeks into the season due to injury, making FOUR ROOKIES starting on offense.

This year:

- QB Brandon Weeden isn't a rookie and early reports of OTAs are positive and the new scheme fits his talents

- RB Trent Richardson isn't a rookie and he's not facing surgery on his knee to keep him out of training camp/preseason or impared with busted ribs

- ORT Mitchell Schwartz isn't a rookie and is already being talked-up as one of the best right tackles in the league

- WR Josh Gordon isn't a rookie and he's had a full offseason and will go into camp as the #1 WR so he'll get first unit reps

Add in:

- OG Jason Pinkston has been cleared and was just talked about on last nights Audible, go to the podcast at the 58 minute mark where Waldman said Pinktson was thought of as one of the best up-and-coming guards in the NFL before he went down with blood clots and he asked Doctor Jene about whether or not he felt Pinkston would be ok and Jene summed up his take by saying that since the team took soo much time and care and caution and proceeded with caution and they cleared him to pratice that he felt he'd be back. Waldman thinks the Browns offensive line is one of the best in the league with Pinktson and I agree, huge addition to have a healthy Jason Pinkston since Shaun Lavaua was the weak link IMHO and now he'll be the backup and Grecko and Pinkston will start.

- WR Greg Little came on strong down the stretch last season. He's not the same guy.

Same personnell on paper but additions can come from individual personnell making logically anticipated progress so our offense is the same in one reguard but it is not the same expereience-wise so we should logically anticipate improvements from six players on offense.

Back on topic:

Taken right from the horses mouth. Go read what Ray has to say about his defense. Just came out a few hours ago.

http://www.cantonrep.com/browns/x1910058184/Fiery-Horton-stoked-about-Browns-defense

Fiery Horton stoked about Browns defense

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

As a Browns fan I don't mind at all, plus its not a hijack to talk about the variables such as player developement on offense as it relates to the defense. The whole point of this was to talk about the prospects on the Browns DEF which could be undervalued by everyone besides Browns fans.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

As a Browns fan I don't mind at all, plus its not a hijack to talk about the variables such as player developement on offense as it relates to the defense. The whole point of this was to talk about the prospects on the Browns DEF which could be undervalued by everyone besides Browns fans.

The point of the thread is to talk about the scheme so IDP fantasy players can try and spy undervalued prospects so here are the guys I think could benefit from the scheme.

- LB D'Qwell Jackson = Won't blow up on tackles but could have more shots at sacks which typically provide higher points than tackles but he's not undervalued

- SS TJ Ward = I think he'll be moved up in the box and that he'll also have more shots to sack the QB. I do feel he is undervalued right now because the past scheme he played deep and wasn't up in the box as much as I anticipate with the new scheme and he has never really been unleashed as a blitz threat but I think he will be in Ray Horton's system.

- CB Leon McFadden = Rookie CB rule applies but when you have CB Joe Haden on the other side of the field you can bet that Leon will be tested quite a bit and have lots of opportunities to make plays. One thing the IDP community may not be aware of is that Leon made big plays in college. He routinely played on an island in single coverage for his four years in San Diego and showed big play ability as he returned two intceptions for TDs.

Bottom line. D'Qwell 'could' produce more but he's not flying under radar so likely won't be a bargain. TJ is probably flying a bit under radar but and I do feel he'll be utilized more but I'd wait to see if I am correct on how Horton will use him. But I think Leon McFadden is a solid IDP sleeper. No one is really talking about him yet so he holds legitimate value.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

McFadden had 8 interceptions in a 4-year career, 3 years as a starter. In his best season he had 3 ints in a conference where they throw the crap out of the ball. Rookie CB rule does apply, especially across from Joe, but I'm not sure suggesting Leon is a big play maker is exactly legit.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

McFadden had 8 interceptions in a 4-year career, 3 years as a starter. In his best season he had 3 ints in a conference where they throw the crap out of the ball. Rookie CB rule does apply, especially across from Joe, but I'm not sure suggesting Leon is a big play maker is exactly legit.

Well I would agree with you except for the big thing I forgot to add.

The Ray Horton defensive system.

With constant pressure coming from everywhere QBs will be throwing sooner and won't have clear passing lanes, they likely will have had to move out of the pocket and at times they will be getting hit as they are throwing, ALL of those aspects will benefit any DB for the Browns but the one guy who will be picked on the most will benefit the most from the defensive scheme.

 

[msommer]

McFadden had 8 interceptions in a 4-year career, 3 years as a starter. In his best season he had 3 ints in a conference where they throw the crap out of the ball. Rookie CB rule does apply, especially across from Joe, but I'm not sure suggesting Leon is a big play maker is exactly legit.

Well I would agree with you except for the big thing I forgot to add.

The Ray Horton defensive system.

With constant pressure coming from everywhere QBs will be throwing sooner and won't have clear passing lanes, they likely will have had to move out of the pocket and at times they will be getting hit as they are throwing, ALL of those aspects will benefit any DB for the Browns but the one guy who will be picked on the most will benefit the most from the defensive scheme.

Not saying you are wrong but in ARI it did not turn out to the case.

in 2011 the best db in regular scoring from ARI was rookie Patrick Peterson. He was DB 31. He had 2 interceptions that year.

in 2012 the best db in ARI was Kerry Rhodes at #47. Patrick Peterson, even with 7 INTs, was DB 59

 

[MAC_32]

Horton's scheme is less effective when the opposing offense knows they probably only need 20 points to win, if that. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those numbers in Arizona. If the Browns continue to suck on offense it absolutely will effect the defensive performance though.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

McFadden had 8 interceptions in a 4-year career, 3 years as a starter. In his best season he had 3 ints in a conference where they throw the crap out of the ball. Rookie CB rule does apply, especially across from Joe, but I'm not sure suggesting Leon is a big play maker is exactly legit.

Well I would agree with you except for the big thing I forgot to add.

The Ray Horton defensive system.

With constant pressure coming from everywhere QBs will be throwing sooner and won't have clear passing lanes, they likely will have had to move out of the pocket and at times they will be getting hit as they are throwing, ALL of those aspects will benefit any DB for the Browns but the one guy who will be picked on the most will benefit the most from the defensive scheme.

Not saying you are wrong but in ARI it did not turn out to the case.

in 2011 the best db in regular scoring from ARI was rookie Patrick Peterson. He was DB 31. He had 2 interceptions that year.

in 2012 the best db in ARI was Kerry Rhodes at #47. Patrick Peterson, even with 7 INTs, was DB 59

You may be right. It seems the DBs had few tackles so someone had to be making the stops and that would imply the front seven is where the majority of the tackles were made and that the DBs got little opportunities which is basically what the scheme is supposed to accomplish where the front seven is aggressive and going upfiield and making stops and forcing incompletions or sacks.

Seems the DBs won't be in on as many plays but its pretty obviuos that if McFadden is starting that QBs will target him and he'll have the most opportuntites so we'll see.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Horton's scheme is less effective when the opposing offense knows they probably only need 20 points to win, if that. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those numbers in Arizona. If the Browns continue to suck on offense it absolutely will effect the defensive performance though.

Its a situational defense, third downs, red zone, fourth quarter. The scheme is built to attack and is focused on those key situations in games.

Last year Horton only had one linebacker who got after the QB, Daryl Washington, and he had a part-time backup in Quentin Groves who did ok but other than that not much. On his D-Line he only had Calias Cambell, that was it.

Now he's got, Sheard, Kruger, Mingo,and he's also go Groves. On the D-Line he's got, Desmond Bryant, Ahtyba Rubin, and Phil Taylor. Not as good as Calias Cambell but they all can push back the pocket and make traps.

Horton has the coaching chops and now he's got the personnel.

We are stacked to win those key situations in games.

I'm confident the offense can muster one TD and one FG per half and that is all I think we need to win games.

Won't be easy and the schemes will take time to set in place but we can win this year with these coaches and the current roster even if a long-term answer at QB is a year or two from being added to the team but we could have that guy right now if we give him a chance and it seems Norv is going to provide him a leigt shot.

http://espncleveland.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=17&post_id=18091

 

[gandalas]

Horton's scheme is less effective when the opposing offense knows they probably only need 20 points to win, if that. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those numbers in Arizona. If the Browns continue to suck on offense it absolutely will effect the defensive performance though.

Wait a minute, are you saying not to put stock in the numbers from Arizona because they have a better offense than we do?

That is something I would take exception to. Our offense is bad, but Arizona is a team that is even worse than us, in my opinion.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Horton's scheme is less effective when the opposing offense knows they probably only need 20 points to win, if that. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those numbers in Arizona. If the Browns continue to suck on offense it absolutely will effect the defensive performance though.

Wait a minute, are you saying not to put stock in the numbers from Arizona because they have a better offense than we do?

That is something I would take exception to. Our offense is bad, but Arizona is a team that is even worse than us, in my opinion.

Last year both the Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals finished with identical 5-11 records but their were differences, I won't go into them all but you can quickly look and see some obvious things with points scored.

- Arizona only won 5 games

- Arizona scored 20 or more points in 5 games

- Arizona won all 5 games where they scored 20 or more points

- Arizona lost all 11 games where they failed to score at least 20 points

Pretty obvious and quick look at the numbers shows how many points Ray Horton's defense needed for a chance to win last year, 20 points. Give him that many points and he won last year.

I've gone over the fact that the Browns offense had an unprecidented, rookie QB starting his career in his first game along wtih a rookie RB and a rookie ORT. Never in the history of the NFL had that ever happened. Add in a rookie WR three games in to make it four rookies starting.

Having that many rookies showed up in the points scored early on last year.

In the first 9 games the Cleveland Browns only scored 20 or more points in 3 games.

Having four rookies learning on the job on offense would logically mean their production would not be very high early-on when they were inexperienced and learning on the job.

OVER THE LAST SEVEN GAMES....

The Cleveland Browns offense scored 20 or more points 5 times.

First 9 games

- scored 20 or more points only 3 times

Last 7 games

- scored 20 or more points 5 times

Lets go over the Ray Horton defense of last year again since this thread is supposed to be a closer look at Ray Horton's defense.

Last year Ray Horton's defense showed that it only needed 20 or more points to win games.

Last year the Arizona Cardinals scored 20 or more points in 5 games and the won all five.

Last year the Cleveland Browns inexperienced offense only scored 20 or more points 3 times in the first 9 games but in the last 7 games after gaining experiene the Browns young offense scored 20 or more points in 5 of the last 7 games.

I think Ray Horton has better personnel with the Browns than he had in Arizona and our offense has the ability to score 20 or more points on the same pace they were on the last 7 games which means I think we have a solid shot to win this year.

 

[MAC_32]

Horton's scheme is less effective when the opposing offense knows they probably only need 20 points to win, if that. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those numbers in Arizona. If the Browns continue to suck on offense it absolutely will effect the defensive performance though.

Wait a minute, are you saying not to put stock in the numbers from Arizona because they have a better offense than we do?

That is something I would take exception to. Our offense is bad, but Arizona is a team that is even worse than us, in my opinion.

We scored more than 20 points 5 times last year. Two were blowout losses, two were against the Bengals, and the last was the blowout over KC. Our offense has been abysmal since that fluke year in 2007. More teams scored more than 30 in the wildcard round of last year's playoffs than we have in the last 5 years combined. New systems usually take 2 offseasons to implement and acclimate to and I have a lengthy record on here of thinking Weeden sucks, so I'm not optimistic about the offense this year. Arizona 2012 bad? Nah, but to assume we're that much better than them right now would be foolish.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Horton's scheme is less effective when the opposing offense knows they probably only need 20 points to win, if that. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into those numbers in Arizona. If the Browns continue to suck on offense it absolutely will effect the defensive performance though.

Wait a minute, are you saying not to put stock in the numbers from Arizona because they have a better offense than we do?

That is something I would take exception to. Our offense is bad, but Arizona is a team that is even worse than us, in my opinion.

We scored more than 20 points 5 times last year. Two were blowout losses, two were against the Bengals, and the last was the blowout over KC. Our offense has been abysmal since that fluke year in 2007. More teams scored more than 30 in the wildcard round of last year's playoffs than we have in the last 5 years combined. New systems usually take 2 offseasons to implement and acclimate to and I have a lengthy record on here of thinking Weeden sucks, so I'm not optimistic about the offense this year. Arizona 2012 bad? Nah, but to assume we're that much better than them right now would be foolish.

We scored 20 or more points in 8 games last year, 5 times in the last 7 games and in the two games we failed to score at least 20 points we lost our starting QB, Brandon Weeden, and our starting RB, Trent Richardson, and our backup QB played thru an injury in the second-last game so we had to plug in our third string QB to finish the last game of the season.

Here are the EIGHT GAMES that we scored 20 or more points:

2 Sun September 16 boxscore L 0-2 @ Cincinnati Bengals 27 34

5 Sun October 7 boxscore L 0-5 @ New York Giants 27 41 6 Sun October 14 boxscore W 1-5 Cincinnati Bengals 34 24 11 Sun November 18 boxscore L OT 2-8 @ Dallas Cowboys 20 23 12 Sun November 25 boxscore W 3-8 Pittsburgh Steelers 20 14 13 Sun December 2 boxscore W 4-8 @ Oakland Raiders 20 17 14 Sun December 9 boxscore W 5-8 Kansas City Chiefs 30 7 15 Sun December 16 boxscore L 5-9 Washington Redskins 21 3

 

[MAC_32]

We can play with threshholds all day long, numbers look much different when you use 19 as the threshhold or if you use 22. Any way you slice it, our offense sucked (bottom 10), and has sucked for the last half decade. 21 points is no way to be living in today's NFL, it's an offensive league and you need 30 point firepower to win. We don't. Whether we will or not depends on Brandon Weeden. I don't believe in him, last year went about like I thought it would. I'd love to be wrong, but he gave me no reason to believe I might be.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

We can play with threshholds all day long, numbers look much different when you use 19 as the threshhold or if you use 22. Any way you slice it, our offense sucked (bottom 10), and has sucked for the last half decade. 21 points is no way to be living in today's NFL, it's an offensive league and you need 30 point firepower to win. We don't. Whether we will or not depends on Brandon Weeden. I don't believe in him, last year went about like I thought it would. I'd love to be wrong, but he gave me no reason to believe I might be.

No!

You can't play with thresholds when they are as obvious as Arizona's were last year and you can't outright LIE and say we only scored 20 or more points in 5 games when we scored 20 or more points in 8 games.

What a team's offense did last year can be looked at especially when it shows an obvious point scoring differential between the first 9 games and the last 7 games.

 

[gandalas]

No, I thought that you were saying not to pay attention to the Arizona defensive performance (how good it was) because they were better on offense than we were. If you are actually arguing the opposite (that our offense is BETTER than theirs was the past 2 years) then I am totally agreeing with you.

 

[MAC_32]

We can play with threshholds all day long, numbers look much different when you use 19 as the threshhold or if you use 22. Any way you slice it, our offense sucked (bottom 10), and has sucked for the last half decade. 21 points is no way to be living in today's NFL, it's an offensive league and you need 30 point firepower to win. We don't. Whether we will or not depends on Brandon Weeden. I don't believe in him, last year went about like I thought it would. I'd love to be wrong, but he gave me no reason to believe I might be.

No!

You can't play with thresholds when they are as obvious as Arizona's were last year and you can't outright LIE and say we only scored 20 or more points in 5 games when we scored 20 or more points in 8 games.

What a team's offense did last year can be looked at especially when it shows an obvious point scoring differential between the first 9 games and the last 7 games.

Who's lying? Looks like you didn't read clearly.

Our offense improved in ppg from horrendous to bad. So what?

 

[MAC_32]

No, I thought that you were saying not to pay attention to the Arizona defensive performance (how good it was) because they were better on offense than we were. If you are actually arguing the opposite (that our offense is BETTER than theirs was the past 2 years) then I am totally agreeing with you.

All I am saying is there is no reason to believe our offense is that much better than Arizona's last year given what we know right now. Our line is good, our RB is too (I think he's great actually), and the rest of the offense is a huge ? Gordon seems like a good bet, Bess and Jones may be the glue pieces we missed during the previous regime, and there's projectible upside in Cameron, Little, Benjamin, and some will argue Weeden too. Still, on paper, position by position bottom 10 and arguably bottom 5 offense. If the young guys develop that will change, but expecting that to just happen would be an error. Lots of young guys never develop.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Mac, we only need 20 points for a legit shot to win.

Last year only 9 teams in the NFL scored under 20 points per game.

Cleveland Browns 18.9

St. Louis Rams 18.7

Oakland Raiders 18.1

Miami Dolphins 18.0

New York Jets 17.6

Philadelphia Eagles 17.5

Jacksonville Jaguars 15.9

Arizona Cardinals 15.6

Kansas City Chiefs 13.2

In the final 7 games we scored an average of only 19 points but in the final two games when both Weeden and Richardson got injured we only scored 12 and 10 points respectfully to finish out the year.

In the five game stretch beforew both went down where we had both QB Brandon Weeden and RB Trent Richardson on the field we scored 111 points or 22.2 points per game which isn't a ton but that point total puts us in an excellent position to win with our defense.

If you think we need 'The Greatest Show on Turf' or some high flying offense or the 85 Bears D to win then you are wrong. We can win right now with what we've got even with the knowledge that we may not even have a franchise QB and even with the knowledge that with new faces on defense and implementing a new system their will surely be a learning curve so the best from that unit may not be fully realized this year.

 

[MAC_32]

I think it's reasonable to believe we lose a lot of games 24-20 or so. We have the defense to keep us in games, but win them? Nah, and we don't have the QB to do it either. If we had an offense that could score 30 points on a regular basis then Horton's defense could be scary, but since we don't it will be more neutralized. Opposing offenses know they only need to score about 20 points to win, so the approach changes from 'we need to score points' to 'lets effectively move the ball but avoid making the big mistake.' Those big mistakes are what this defense thrives on. In the end, if you're the opposing coach, if you're 3-4 points one way or the other vs. the Browns going into the final few minutes you like your chances. Up to Weeden to prove them wrong.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

We can play with threshholds all day long, numbers look much different when you use 19 as the threshhold or if you use 22. Any way you slice it, our offense sucked (bottom 10), and has sucked for the last half decade. 21 points is no way to be living in today's NFL, it's an offensive league and you need 30 point firepower to win. We don't. Whether we will or not depends on Brandon Weeden. I don't believe in him, last year went about like I thought it would. I'd love to be wrong, but he gave me no reason to believe I might be.

I'll add that only two team in the league scored over 30 points per game:

- New England 34.8 pts per game

- Denver 30.1 pts per game

The two Super Bowl teams?

- Batimore 24.9

- San Francisco 24.8

So you DO NOT have to score 30 points per game and 30 points is NOT the new NFL requirement to win.