Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I wanted to cook up a similarity score for Ryan Grant, similar to what Doug Drinen's done before and what JKL did here. I think Grant's a guy I don't have a really good feel on; he's only started 7 games in his career, he was undrafted, yet he was incredible last season and he looks like a good RB. I don't really trust my eyes, though, so I wanted to know if history could guide us. To that extent, what have players like Ryan Grant 2007 done the following year?
Well, what's a player like Ryan Grant? There are seven noteworthy things about Ryan Grant's 2007 season.
-- He was in his first season as a starter
-- He was 25 years old
-- He was undrafted
-- He had 188 carries
-- He averaged 5.1 YPC
-- He rushed for 8 TDs
-- He caught 30 passes
If I could find other players who fit a similar profile, that -- if nothing else -- would be interesting. So I created a similarity score, where every RB starts at 1000 and then gets the following points subtracted:
1) For every season starting away from the #1, - 50 points. If this was their 5th season starting, that's -200. If they weren't the starter in the year in question, and had never started a season before, they'd get -50 (0 seasons starting to that point.
2) For every age unit away from 25, - 50 points. A 30 year old RB would get -250; a 23 year old RB gets -100.
3) This one's a bit complicated. I'm just going to say I created a logarithmic curve of NFL production vis-a-vis draft pick to give a better fit to the exponential value of your draft slot. Basically, undrafted players get a 3, the first pick gets a 73, the 91st pick in the draft a 16, the 23rd pick in the draft a 33. More info can be found on this here, but suffice it to say, I think it's very good. Grant, as an undrafted player, gets a 3. For every point above a 3, you get -2 points. So LT (#5 pick, value of 53) would be -100. This might not be a large enough variable (i.e., maybe -3 points or -4 points would be better), but IMO, draft value is a lot less important after you get a season in. Anyway, I might move this up, but the results don't produce a lot of highly drafted players, so I'm okay with it.
4) For every carry off of 188, -1 point.
5) For every yard off 5.09 YPC, -40 points. (So 4.59 YPC would be -20 points.) I think this might not be high enough, so I'm open to ideas here.
6) For every rushing TD off of 8, -10 points.
7) For every reception off of 30, -2 point.
So, I did that for every RB since the merger, and since 1992. I think the since '92 list is better, so I'm going with that. Here are the top 30 comparables:
year st age drval rsh ypc rtd rec Sim 2007 1 25 3.0 188 5.09 8 30 1000 Ryan Grant2007 1 25 14.0 202 5.00 4 23 906 Brandon Jacobs 1993 1 24 5.7 195 5.14 6 21 898 Gary Brown1998 1 25 3.0 233 4.33 7 43 889 Priest Holmes1999 1 25 11.9 205 3.39 5 29 866 Jonathan Linton1997 1 25 16.4 204 3.79 4 29 863 Bam Morris2001 1 26 3.0 213 4.12 9 23 862 Stacey Mack1994 1 25 5.7 169 3.83 4 18 862 Gary Brown2005 1 25 3.0 255 4.71 4 18 854 Willie Parker1997 0 25 33.7 194 4.33 8 28 848 Antowain Smith2003 1 24 15.2 215 4.45 9 21 845 Rudi Johnson2002 0 24 3.0 188 4.44 6 38 838 Marcel Shipp2004 0 25 10.1 118 4.57 8 25 835 Derrick Blaylock1997 2 25 6.2 151 4.62 4 37 834 Charles Way2005 1 25 28.8 205 4.29 2 34 831 DeShaun Foster2004 0 25 6.1 160 4.46 2 30 831 Chester Taylor1996 2 25 36.1 190 3.81 8 30 831 James Stewart2000 1 25 28.1 213 4.72 8 70 830 Tiki Barber2003 0 24 18.1 201 5.09 6 35 827 Kevan Barlow2004 1 25 18.1 244 3.37 7 35 825 Kevan Barlow2001 1 25 3.0 237 3.21 5 19 824 Maurice Smith1999 1 25 47.0 138 5.20 6 23 823 Tim Biakabutuka2003 1 25 3.0 228 3.64 0 30 822 Marcel Shipp1993 3 25 12.1 177 4.02 8 27 822 Barry Foster2003 1 24 16.4 117 5.24 7 37 822 Brian Westbrook1996 1 25 17.4 141 4.50 3 15 821 LeShon Johnson1996 1 26 10.2 121 4.68 5 31 820 Dorsey Levens2004 1 26 3.0 217 3.78 6 45 819 Nick Goings2007 1 24 3.0 140 5.21 1 35 817 Selvin Young2001 1 25 3.0 113 5.12 2 4 811 Troy Hambrick2006 1 24 13.3 151 4.30 4 25 811 Leon WashingtonI can show the Year N+1 results soon, but I'm curious to see what people think of the formula first. I'd prefer to make my tweaks before seeing the results.***Formula updated in post 18***
Well, what's a player like Ryan Grant? There are seven noteworthy things about Ryan Grant's 2007 season.
-- He was in his first season as a starter
-- He was 25 years old
-- He was undrafted
-- He had 188 carries
-- He averaged 5.1 YPC
-- He rushed for 8 TDs
-- He caught 30 passes
If I could find other players who fit a similar profile, that -- if nothing else -- would be interesting. So I created a similarity score, where every RB starts at 1000 and then gets the following points subtracted:
1) For every season starting away from the #1, - 50 points. If this was their 5th season starting, that's -200. If they weren't the starter in the year in question, and had never started a season before, they'd get -50 (0 seasons starting to that point.
2) For every age unit away from 25, - 50 points. A 30 year old RB would get -250; a 23 year old RB gets -100.
3) This one's a bit complicated. I'm just going to say I created a logarithmic curve of NFL production vis-a-vis draft pick to give a better fit to the exponential value of your draft slot. Basically, undrafted players get a 3, the first pick gets a 73, the 91st pick in the draft a 16, the 23rd pick in the draft a 33. More info can be found on this here, but suffice it to say, I think it's very good. Grant, as an undrafted player, gets a 3. For every point above a 3, you get -2 points. So LT (#5 pick, value of 53) would be -100. This might not be a large enough variable (i.e., maybe -3 points or -4 points would be better), but IMO, draft value is a lot less important after you get a season in. Anyway, I might move this up, but the results don't produce a lot of highly drafted players, so I'm okay with it.
4) For every carry off of 188, -1 point.
5) For every yard off 5.09 YPC, -40 points. (So 4.59 YPC would be -20 points.) I think this might not be high enough, so I'm open to ideas here.
6) For every rushing TD off of 8, -10 points.
7) For every reception off of 30, -2 point.
So, I did that for every RB since the merger, and since 1992. I think the since '92 list is better, so I'm going with that. Here are the top 30 comparables:
year st age drval rsh ypc rtd rec Sim 2007 1 25 3.0 188 5.09 8 30 1000 Ryan Grant2007 1 25 14.0 202 5.00 4 23 906 Brandon Jacobs 1993 1 24 5.7 195 5.14 6 21 898 Gary Brown1998 1 25 3.0 233 4.33 7 43 889 Priest Holmes1999 1 25 11.9 205 3.39 5 29 866 Jonathan Linton1997 1 25 16.4 204 3.79 4 29 863 Bam Morris2001 1 26 3.0 213 4.12 9 23 862 Stacey Mack1994 1 25 5.7 169 3.83 4 18 862 Gary Brown2005 1 25 3.0 255 4.71 4 18 854 Willie Parker1997 0 25 33.7 194 4.33 8 28 848 Antowain Smith2003 1 24 15.2 215 4.45 9 21 845 Rudi Johnson2002 0 24 3.0 188 4.44 6 38 838 Marcel Shipp2004 0 25 10.1 118 4.57 8 25 835 Derrick Blaylock1997 2 25 6.2 151 4.62 4 37 834 Charles Way2005 1 25 28.8 205 4.29 2 34 831 DeShaun Foster2004 0 25 6.1 160 4.46 2 30 831 Chester Taylor1996 2 25 36.1 190 3.81 8 30 831 James Stewart2000 1 25 28.1 213 4.72 8 70 830 Tiki Barber2003 0 24 18.1 201 5.09 6 35 827 Kevan Barlow2004 1 25 18.1 244 3.37 7 35 825 Kevan Barlow2001 1 25 3.0 237 3.21 5 19 824 Maurice Smith1999 1 25 47.0 138 5.20 6 23 823 Tim Biakabutuka2003 1 25 3.0 228 3.64 0 30 822 Marcel Shipp1993 3 25 12.1 177 4.02 8 27 822 Barry Foster2003 1 24 16.4 117 5.24 7 37 822 Brian Westbrook1996 1 25 17.4 141 4.50 3 15 821 LeShon Johnson1996 1 26 10.2 121 4.68 5 31 820 Dorsey Levens2004 1 26 3.0 217 3.78 6 45 819 Nick Goings2007 1 24 3.0 140 5.21 1 35 817 Selvin Young2001 1 25 3.0 113 5.12 2 4 811 Troy Hambrick2006 1 24 13.3 151 4.30 4 25 811 Leon WashingtonI can show the Year N+1 results soon, but I'm curious to see what people think of the formula first. I'd prefer to make my tweaks before seeing the results.***Formula updated in post 18***
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