A different look at Ryan Grant (1 Viewer)

[mrspree15]

I'm pretty sure you guys have reached the point of completely overthinking this

Not only does it seem to be an exercise that probably doesn't have much value in the long run anyway, but it doesn't even control for factors like differential in overall league numbers. 1000 yards rushing in 1993 is not the same as 1000 yards rushing in 2007. 8 rushing TDs in 2007 is not the same as 8 rushing TDs in 1992. Etc. Not only that, but we all know that TDs are one of the flukiest stats out there. Players can go from 10+ TDs one year to 3 or 4 the next. And yet it was decided to give them even MORE weight than they were originally given. I appreciate breaking things down statistically as much as possible, but comparing players across years becomes very tricky and often times falls flat.

Agreed. Chase, is there any way to adjust for league environment?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Similarity scores are intellectually intriguing, but I've never bought into their predictive value one iota, particularly for sports like football with such small sample sizes.

I agree with this.That said, similarity scores are used by everybody in fantasy football, just not necessarily as empirically as I'm doing here. It's just like how everyone uses VBD to some extent, even if they call it their gut (long before Joe Bryant, people didn't draft kickers and TEs early).

If I said that Ryan Grant was going to be the next Tomlinson, Peterson or Barry Sanders, someone would probably bring up that those guys were top five picks and Grant was undrafted. If I said that Ryan Grant was going to be the next Willie Green or Julius Jones, someone would probably bring up that Grant's YPC was a yard ahead of those guys. If I said Grant was going to be the next Earl Campbell, someone would say he didn't have anywhere near as many carries. If I said Ryan Grant was going to fall off the face of the earth like Shaun Alexander last year, someone would say that Grant isn't anywhere near as old.

Age. Experience. Touches. Production. Draft Status. Those five things are the bulk of what makes up a player's fantasy projections. If I told you RB X was 24 years old, he started last year, had 300-1000-8 with 30 receptions, and was a fourth round rookie last year, you would intuitively have a good feel on how to project him. Obviously questions about his situation are important, but those are actually pretty easy to answer once you know the real player. Now if I told you he was 28, or a first round pick, or had 1500 yards, your projections would change significantly. That's all similarity scores are doing.

How sensitive are your results to changes in the coefficients? Since there are an infinite number of top-10 lists of similarities, it seems like an important thing to explore.

They're pretty sensitive, as they should be. That's why I'm trying to work on what "feels" the best.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Grant has a lot more in common with Priest Holmes than almost anyone else on that list...Young upon entry into the leagueLow number of carries in collegeDidn't get a shot in his first couple years for a good reasonGood sizeGood power for his sizeThere's no reason to think he's not legit.And his status as an UFA is largely explained by the facts that he increased his weight from 215 to 226 after entering the league (which bumped both his size and power from low/marginal to good), and had only had 280 carries in his last two years at Notre Dame.

Of course, much of the same could be said for Gary Brown, too. Their careers are eerily similar so far -- and they both only started half their games in the season we're looking at.It's an interesting group of comps, to be sure.

 

[tytyty]

For the non over analyzers here can we see the results??? Cant add to my binder until I see the answers!!

 

[Portis 26]

The difference between a 4th round pick and a 1st round pick is less than the difference between a 4th round pick and an undrafted player.

I don't think you mean that.Would you trade your first for two fourths? Of course not. You wouldn't trade your first for two thirds, either. The difference between a 1st and a 4th is huge; the difference between a 4th and an undrafted player isn't very significant.

It's not such an outlandish point. RBs who were at one point projected as first round picks can often fall to the fourth. Antonio Pittman was viewed at one point as one of the top backs in his class and he slid to the fourth.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm pretty sure you guys have reached the point of completely overthinking this

Not only does it seem to be an exercise that probably doesn't have much value in the long run anyway, but it doesn't even control for factors like differential in overall league numbers. 1000 yards rushing in 1993 is not the same as 1000 yards rushing in 2007. 8 rushing TDs in 2007 is not the same as 8 rushing TDs in 1992. Etc. Not only that, but we all know that TDs are one of the flukiest stats out there. Players can go from 10+ TDs one year to 3 or 4 the next. And yet it was decided to give them even MORE weight than they were originally given.

I appreciate breaking things down statistically as much as possible, but comparing players across years becomes very tricky and often times falls flat.

Agreed. Chase, is there any way to adjust for league environment?

Sure, there's a way to do just about anything. But I'm not sure we want to do that here. RB YPC has been pretty stable from year to year, with it gradually increasing. RB TDs have been as well.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm pretty sure you guys have reached the point of completely overthinking this

Laughed out loud at that one.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

It's an interesting group of comps, to be sure.

I know it's a longshot, but do you have combine info for Brown?

 

[Chase Stuart]

The difference between a 4th round pick and a 1st round pick is less than the difference between a 4th round pick and an undrafted player.

I don't think you mean that.Would you trade your first for two fourths? Of course not. You wouldn't trade your first for two thirds, either. The difference between a 1st and a 4th is huge; the difference between a 4th and an undrafted player isn't very significant.

It's not such an outlandish point. RBs who were at one point projected as first round picks can often fall to the fourth. Antonio Pittman was viewed at one point as one of the top backs in his class and he slid to the fourth.

But RBs who were at one point projected as fourth round picks often go undrafted.We can quibble about the exact difference, but I don't think there's much debate that the difference between pick 10 and pick 110 is a lot bigger than pick 110 and an UDFA. As much as we like to find sleepers, the sad truth is a lot of the guys taken at around pick 110 end up doing very little in the NFL. But I don't really want to go into a hijack of this thread here.q

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's not difficult to do this for any other RB. Throw out some names (preferably one at a time ).

 

[IndyHavoc]

FWP. Many feel the drafting of Mendenhall = the quick death of any FF value for FWP. I just don't see someone that has been that productive over a 3 year span falling off the map (except due to major injury or personal problems, i.e. Travis Henry is who comes to mind).

 

[Chase Stuart]

FWP. Many feel the drafting of Mendenhall = the quick death of any FF value for FWP. I just don't see someone that has been that productive over a 3 year span falling off the map (except due to major injury or personal problems, i.e. Travis Henry is who comes to mind).

IMO, what you're looking for on FWP can be found here. Similarity scores aren't going to be as useful when the team adds a potentially elite competitor at RB, because the system has no idea that the Steelers added Mendenhall.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Let's take a look at Adrian Peterson. Note: The similarity scores are going to be lower because he's got a pretty extreme draft rating (top 10 pick) and a pretty extreme YPC. Finding guys that hit both of those at such a young age is not easy.

year	st   age   drval   rsh	ypc	rtd	rec   Sim	   2007	1	22	48.7	238	5.63	12	19	1000   Adrian Peterson2002	1	21	23.7	273	5.52	15	33	795	Clinton Portis2003	2	22	23.7	290	5.49	14	38	787	Clinton Portis1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	770	Corey Dillon2006	0	21	21.7	166	5.67	13	46	740	Maurice Jones-Drew1998	1	22	45.5	264	4.63	14	44	727	Fred Taylor2000	2	24	45.5	292	4.79	12	36	709	Fred Taylor2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	704	Tatum Bell1993	1	21	44.2	294	4.86	 7	26	701	Jerome Bettis2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	693	Dominic Rhodes2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	673	Chris Brown2004	1	22	30.4	241	4.70	 5	28	672	Kevin Jones2006	1	23	20.7	312	5.43	 8	61	670	Frank Gore1997	3	25	34.9	232	5.46	 6	37	656	Robert Smith2003	3	24	52.9	387	5.34	14	26	655	Jamal Lewis1999	1	25	47.0	138	5.20	 6	23	651	Tim Biakabutuka1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	650	Gary Brown1993	1	22	25.3	223	4.77	 3	21	641	Reggie Brooks2006	0	23	30.4	226	4.78	 7	40	641	Joseph Addai2002	2	24	31.7	255	5.08	 5	37	637	Michael Bennett1996	1	23	36.8	150	5.83	 1	22	627	Napoleon Kaufman2006	0	23	14.2	135	4.84	14	23	626	Marion Barber1993	4	24	37.5	283	5.25	 9	57	625	Emmitt Smith1995	0	23	26.2	108	5.44	 6	10	621	Charlie Garner2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	621	Ryan Grant2004	1	23	36.8	104	4.89	 8	 3	618	T.J. Duckett

 

[Otis]

My GB bringin the

 

[travdogg]

Grant has a lot more in common with Priest Holmes than almost anyone else on that list...Young upon entry into the leagueLow number of carries in collegeDidn't get a shot in his first couple years for a good reasonGood sizeGood power for his sizeThere's no reason to think he's not legit.And his status as an UFA is largely explained by the facts that he increased his weight from 215 to 226 after entering the league (which bumped both his size and power from low/marginal to good), and had only had 280 carries in his last two years at Notre Dame.

Of course, much of the same could be said for Gary Brown, too. Their careers are eerily similar so far -- and they both only started half their games in the season we're looking at.It's an interesting group of comps, to be sure.

Gary Brown had some major red flags that Grant doesn't have. Brown was frequently overweight, never had the confidence of the Oilers staff and had his big year in a gimmicky offense. Where as Grant has the full confidence of the Packers staff and is in a real offense and is in excellent shape.When I think of comparisons for Grant, the 1st two names that came to mind are Priest Holmes and Dorsey Levens.I fully expect Grant to be a top-10ish RB this year and in dynasty leagues.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Similarity scores are probably less useful for older players, especially when you've got a draft variable in there. But anyway:

year	st   age   drval   rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim		  2007	5	28	16.4	278	4.79	 7	90	1000	Brian Westbrook2006	4	27	16.4	240	5.07	 7	77	865	Brian Westbrook2004	5	27	18.7	259	4.49	 7	40	833	Ahman Green2000	2	28	26.2	258	4.43	 7	68	806	Charlie Garner2006	4	28	22.1	270	4.49	 7	18	792	Travis Henry2000	6	28	34.9	295	5.16	 7	36	789	Robert Smith2003	4	28	28.1	278	4.37	 2	69	778	Tiki Barber2004	5	29	15.9	219	4.23	 7	41	764	Michael Pittman2002	6	28	25.9	314	4.18	 7	43	764	Corey Dillon1995	5	29	33.2	236	4.59	 6	37	762	Craig Heyward2001	2	28	 3.0	327	4.76	 8	62	758	Priest Holmes2002	4	30	26.2	182	5.29	 7	91	756	Charlie Garner2002	3	25	18.7	286	4.34	 7	57	740	Ahman Green1997	6	28	25.3	285	3.89	 7	48	740	Ricky Watters2001	7	28	19.0	333	4.54	10	53	736	Curtis Martin1996	5	28	16.7	203	4.21	 5	40	733	Chris Warren2002	3	27	28.1	304	4.56	11	69	731	Tiki Barber2002	8	29	19.0	261	4.19	 7	49	721	Curtis Martin1999	6	26	64.5	253	5.46	 7	87	717	Marshall Faulk2003	6	29	15.0	318	4.54	 8	14	715	Stephen Davis2004	5	28	45.5	260	4.71	 2	36	715	Fred Taylor1997	2	27	10.2	329	4.36	 7	53	714	Dorsey Levens1995	2	28	34.9	255	4.37	 9	54	711	Harvey Williams1998	4	27	59.4	310	5.06	 7	39	709	Garrison Hearst2004	5	29	28.1	322	4.71	13	52	706	Tiki Barber2002	3	26	45.5	287	4.58	 8	49	704	Fred Taylor

 

[Chase Stuart]

Only a few good comparisons for those high on Leon Washington.

year	st   age   drval   rsh	ypc	 rtd  rec   Sim		  2007	1	25	13.3	 71	4.97	3	36	1000   Leon Washington1999	1	25	 7.9	 58	4.76	4	32	941	Fred Beasley1997	1	24	16.7	 67	4.63	3	14	897	Rodney Thomas2002	1	26	25.0	 52	5.21	2	37	897	Kevin Faulk2004	0	25	11.5	 71	5.06	2	 4	881	Najeh Davenport1995	0	25	 3.0	107	5.33	3	28	879	Robert Green1997	0	25	26.2	116	4.72	3	24	865	Charlie Garner2001	0	25	15.9	 85	5.19	1	13	858	Amos Zereoue1993	0	26	 5.6	 88	4.60	3	21	857	Derrick Moore2007	0	25	 3.0	 60	4.62	1	24	856	Jason Wright1993	1	24	19.6	 50	4.62	0	39	852	Kevin Turner1996	1	26	10.2	121	4.68	5	31	851	Dorsey Levens2001	1	25	 3.0	113	5.12	2	 4	850	Troy Hambrick2004	0	25	 8.9	 55	4.95	0	18	849	Verron Haynes2004	1	25	 3.0	 53	4.79	1	 2	849	Dominic Rhodes2007	1	26	36.8	 65	5.15	3	 4	848	T.J. Duckett1993	0	26	 4.9	 49	5.16	1	32	848	Johnny Bailey1996	1	25	17.4	141	4.50	3	15	846	LeShon Johnson1995	1	27	21.7	 73	4.56	5	43	842	Aaron Craver2000	0	25	 3.0	 54	4.61	4	10	841	Justin Watson2005	0	26	 6.6	 76	5.14	2	 7	839	Adrian Peterson1999	0	24	15.9	 64	4.52	2	16	837	Michael Pittman1997	2	25	 6.2	151	4.62	4	37	835	Charles Way1996	0	27	27.1	 56	4.80	2	32	835	Eric Bieniemy1993	0	27	11.8	 69	4.77	0	38	835	Dave Meggett2007	0	25	 3.0	 44	4.91	2	 2	834	Andre Hall

 

[gheemony]

I think this is useful. It tells me that Grant is very volatile. Some of his comparables did very, very well. Some stunk it up. Draft him with caution.

so what are n+1 numbers for Grant?

 

[Tau837]

FWP. Many feel the drafting of Mendenhall = the quick death of any FF value for FWP. I just don't see someone that has been that productive over a 3 year span falling off the map (except due to major injury or personal problems, i.e. Travis Henry is who comes to mind).

IMO, what you're looking for on FWP can be found here. Similarity scores aren't going to be as useful when the team adds a potentially elite competitor at RB, because the system has no idea that the Steelers added Mendenhall.

Ah, but isn't that just an example of the problems with similarity scores in general? How many of the players that are deemed "similar" to Grant had significant changes in their situations or injuries (to them or others they depend on) that precluded them from excelling later? And, as others have pointed out, the system doesn't know about the changes for Grant himself either (i.e., switch from Favre to Rodgers). These things illustrate how little worth similarity scores have for predictive purposes IMO.The best way to "prove" the worth of similarity scores would be to go back and perform this exercise for a group of sample RBs that are late in their careers now after their first starting seasons, to see how accurately it would have forecast their performance. To be fair, such an exercise should include some in the test group who have excelled, like Tomlinson, and some who haven't, like Benson, William Green, etc. My expectation is that there will be no predictive value shown... largely because of what is stated above - injuries and situational changes.

 

[Tau837]

I think this is useful. It tells me that Grant is very volatile. Some of his comparables did very, very well. Some stunk it up. Draft him with caution.so what are n+1 numbers for Grant?

If you go back and look at the results for any RB after his first season as a (at least partial) starter, how many of them do you think won't show "volatile" similarity scores?I mean, maybe LT and AP won't show as much volatility... but how does that help us? We already know they are studs. We need predictive help for players we are less certain about... and I suspect all such players will tend to show volatile similarity scores.

 

[Interseptopus]

I'm pretty sure you guys have reached the point of completely overthinking this

Half the guys on the comparison list are pretty good, and half sucked. It's possible that Grant could be a Gary Brown, but maybe he's a Priest Holmes? Hmm, they are SOOOO similar!A lot of work goes into this, but the problem is correlating the results to future results. There seems to be no way to predict from this list how Grant will do.

Should have saw the list and then realized that there is no correlation. You want to run statistics and you'll get an R value of probably .30. You have complete opposite sides of the spectrum. Yes, if the whole N+1 thing yields a good statistic that will help us compare Ryan Grant to others, then fantastic. However, at the same time finding another RB who in his first season as a starter started 8 games and was the 2nd leading rusher in those 8 games is pretty hard to do. Even if you did find a RB who matched those stats, it wouldn't be more than 1, and that isn't a big enough sample size to make a conclusion on Ryan Grant. In order to make a logical conclusion you need at least 10-15 RBs who were in the exact same situation as Grant (played half the season their first year as a starter and did amazing). Then you could look how they did the following season and make an educated guess on how Ryan Grant would do.In the end, it's impossible to do because the sample size would be too low and not to mention the NFL is not predictable! A player can be awful on one team and amazing on another (See Randy Moss 2006 versus 2007). A player can have a down year one year and be back to stardom the next (See Andre Johnson 2005 versus 2006). Fluke years happen (See Steve Smith 2005). It's just impossible to predict. Even if you were to collect a sample size of 10 RBs who started 8 games their first year as a starter and performed as one of the top RBs in those 8 weeks... it would still be a GUESS on how he would do this upcoming season.Here's what we know about Ryan Grant- Undrafted... sure "he was undrafted for a reason". But Marques Colston went in round 7. Antonio Gates was undrafted... need I go on- He lost his QB from last year. Rodgers looks pretty good so far, but he does look like a 1st year starter. Will teams play more 8 in the box? (This is another X-Factor that you MUST take into account in your "research." Even if you were to get 10 RBs just like Grant's situation, how many of them would be going through a QB change?)- His backup B. Jackson is looking like he still cannot pick up the blitz. This would lead me to believe that Grant has good job stability. Personally I think he's a top 10 RB this season. That's not the homer in me coming out, that's just my fantasy football opinion. I think losing Favre both hurt and helped Grant. He may not get as many rushing yards, but I think Rodgers will look to him more in the passing game as well. I think GB may be running more screens to get Grant more involved in the offense assuming teams do play the run more.Good luck in your research. Personally, if you were to get this peer-reviewed, I don't think it'd be deemed as good research. It's impossible to match the sample size, and even if you do, your R value will be so low it won't reveal any conclusions. With an R value of .30-.40 you're seriously better off flipping a coin (.50-.50 chance) to decide if you take Grant or not! It saves more time and it'll give you a better chance than your research will

 

[Todem]

Ryan Grant = overvalued big time.I don't need formulas to come to that scouting report. Just good old football instincts and a long time playing this silly game. Favre not being there is going to be HUGE. And Brandon Jackson is going to warrent some PT as well. Grant has been out with a hammy already after geting his contract.Grant got his money....guy was a fluke last season and people will be crying about drafting him in the late second or early 3rd as their RB2 thinking he will be an RB1 type of player.Good effort though Chase. We just approach fantasy football from completly different perspectives.

What did you good old football instincts tell you about Tiki Barber or Willie Parker?

I was drafting FWP in rounds 13-17 the year he broke out. I watched him in a pre-season game against my Dolphins and he was ripping off insane runs behinds a great Pitt line with an old Bus in the garage and a washed up Duce Staley hanging on for dear life as well. So I was all over the kid then in my dynasty leagues and WW's.Tiki was great value for a few years and was an obvious PPR beast till the secret was out 2 years before he hung it up. He was a guy who was somewhat undersized but had the low center of gravity and could catch the ball with ease. Ryan Grant is not a special talent in my eye test. He did look very good last year....running through bowling lanes. Let's see him create his own space when that defense starts pinching in with no respect for Rodgers till he proves he garners respect. I just don't see the great RB pedigree on him. He has good speed good size....but lacks that wiggle I always look for in NFL RB's. The ability to create your own holes or the ability to run through the slightest crease. Just an opinion.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm pretty sure you guys have reached the point of completely overthinking this

Half the guys on the comparison list are pretty good, and half sucked. It's possible that Grant could be a Gary Brown, but maybe he's a Priest Holmes? Hmm, they are SOOOO similar!A lot of work goes into this, but the problem is correlating the results to future results. There seems to be no way to predict from this list how Grant will do.

Should have saw the list and then realized that there is no correlation. You want to run statistics and you'll get an R value of probably .30. You have complete opposite sides of the spectrum. Yes, if the whole N+1 thing yields a good statistic that will help us compare Ryan Grant to others, then fantastic. However, at the same time finding another RB who in his first season as a starter started 8 games and was the 2nd leading rusher in those 8 games is pretty hard to do. Even if you did find a RB who matched those stats, it wouldn't be more than 1, and that isn't a big enough sample size to make a conclusion on Ryan Grant. In order to make a logical conclusion you need at least 10-15 RBs who were in the exact same situation as Grant (played half the season their first year as a starter and did amazing). Then you could look how they did the following season and make an educated guess on how Ryan Grant would do.In the end, it's impossible to do because the sample size would be too low and not to mention the NFL is not predictable! A player can be awful on one team and amazing on another (See Randy Moss 2006 versus 2007). A player can have a down year one year and be back to stardom the next (See Andre Johnson 2005 versus 2006). Fluke years happen (See Steve Smith 2005). It's just impossible to predict. Even if you were to collect a sample size of 10 RBs who started 8 games their first year as a starter and performed as one of the top RBs in those 8 weeks... it would still be a GUESS on how he would do this upcoming season.Here's what we know about Ryan Grant- Undrafted... sure "he was undrafted for a reason". But Marques Colston went in round 7. Antonio Gates was undrafted... need I go on- He lost his QB from last year. Rodgers looks pretty good so far, but he does look like a 1st year starter. Will teams play more 8 in the box? (This is another X-Factor that you MUST take into account in your "research." Even if you were to get 10 RBs just like Grant's situation, how many of them would be going through a QB change?)- His backup B. Jackson is looking like he still cannot pick up the blitz. This would lead me to believe that Grant has good job stability. Personally I think he's a top 10 RB this season. That's not the homer in me coming out, that's just my fantasy football opinion. I think losing Favre both hurt and helped Grant. He may not get as many rushing yards, but I think Rodgers will look to him more in the passing game as well. I think GB may be running more screens to get Grant more involved in the offense assuming teams do play the run more.Good luck in your research. Personally, if you were to get this peer-reviewed, I don't think it'd be deemed as good research. It's impossible to match the sample size, and even if you do, your R value will be so low it won't reveal any conclusions. With an R value of .30-.40 you're seriously better off flipping a coin (.50-.50 chance) to decide if you take Grant or not! It saves more time and it'll give you a better chance than your research will

I agree with a lot of what you said, except:1) Steve Smith's 2005 season wasn't a fluke. He was actually better in 2006 and 2007 when he and Delhomme were healthy. The only problem since 2005 has been the health of his QB, which doesn't make his '05 season a fluke (especially since he performed just as well when his QB was healthy).2) I think you're standards for what is useful are way too high. How about Peyton Manning. Surely it would seem like he's really predictable, but he's not. Carson Palmer? Nope. No one is really predictable, even if they've been around forever. You're never going to get perfect predictions. That's impossible. That's also not the goal. The point is to improve your odds at making a prediction, relative to other people. And, potentially, similarity scores may help with that.3) As an aside, a R of 0.30 doesn't mean you're better off flipping a coin to decide. You just have to understand its value, and not look at the results in a black/white sense.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Ryan Grant = overvalued big time.I don't need formulas to come to that scouting report. Just good old football instincts and a long time playing this silly game. Favre not being there is going to be HUGE. And Brandon Jackson is going to warrent some PT as well. Grant has been out with a hammy already after geting his contract.Grant got his money....guy was a fluke last season and people will be crying about drafting him in the late second or early 3rd as their RB2 thinking he will be an RB1 type of player.Good effort though Chase. We just approach fantasy football from completly different perspectives.

What did you good old football instincts tell you about Tiki Barber or Willie Parker?

I was drafting FWP in rounds 13-17 the year he broke out. i watched him in a pre-season game against my Dolhpins and he was ripping off insane runs behinds a great Pitt line with an old Bus in the garge and a washed up Duce Staley hanging on for dear life as well. So I was all over the kid then in my dyansty leagues and WW's.Tiki was great value for a few years and was an obvious PPR beast till the secret was out 2 years before he hung it up.Ryan Grant is not a special talent in my eye test. he did look very good last year....running through bowling lanes. Let's see him create his own space when that defense starts pinching in with no respect for rodgers till he proves he garners respect. I just don;t see the great RB pedigree on him. Just an opinion.

I've run a number of different studies, and I'm just not convinced the QB has that much impact on a RB's fantasy numbers. It sounds good in theory, but I've yet to seen it proven. As one example, Tony Dorsett had very similar (but better) numbers the year after Staubach retired. I know Dorsett's awesome, but I don't see why that should matter -- if QB play matters, going from a HOF QB to an average QB should effect great RBs along with mediocre RBs. Obviously one example means nothing, but I just picked that one because Staubach's the only guy off the top of my head that played really well his last season of his career before retiring, similar to what's going on with Favre (moving on to a new team). I probably would like Grant a little more if Favre was still around, but I don't think it's significant and I wouldn't be surprised to find out that it's irrelevant whether you had a top 8 QB or a top 25 QB. I think a bottom of the barrel QB might present different circumstances, but no one projects Rodgers as that.

 

[Native]

The only comment is that Id like to see you include Grant's playoff statistics added into the baseline. Our collective perception of Grant is strongly shaped by the 40 carries and 200+ yards he ammassed in the playoffs. Adding an additional 40 carries to his total carries (~230) would draw him closer with guys in the ~250 carry bucket as opposed to the ~150 carry guys. I would think the 250-carry guys would provide us with a better overall comparison given his heavy workload during the time which he was the feature back.

 

[Doug Drinen]

My expectation is that there will be no predictive value shown...

I'd like some of that action.If you looked at every RB of the last 20 years of NFL history, and ran this exercise on each of them, I'll bet you eleventy-trillion dollars there is a statistically significant (at the .0000000000001 level) correlation between actual year N+1 numbers and predicted Year N+1 numbers. But that's not what you meant. What you meant, I'm guessing, is no EXTRA predictive value. And my question is: compared to what? What's the "control" projection against which Chase's method is to be judged? Last year's stats? Dodds's projections?My guess (and it's purely a guess) is that this method would predict very slightly better than last year's stats, but not as well as Dodds' projections, or some sort of consensus projections, because Dodds's projections have more information.IMO something like what Chase is doing is potentially useful as a starting point, not an ending point. They're a replacement for last year's rankings. Not a replacement for preseason rankings.And yes, ultimately I suspect (but would be happy to be proven wrong) that they're not worth the hassle. Unless you just happen to enjoy the hassle of writing code and reminiscing about guys like Gary Brown.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I've run a number of different studies, and I'm just not convinced the QB has that much impact on a RB's fantasy numbers.

I don't seem to have the data anymore, so I'm not sure what the parameters for this were, but...I did something a couple years ago that found that a 1 yard/attempt improvement in a team's passing game resulted in 2.25 more fantasy points/game for the team's RBs. If that's right, replacing a really crappy QB with a really good one will definitely help the RBs some. But a big drop off in the passing game would NOT make the RBs more valuable.ETAJust did this again for all team seasons from 2002-2007 and it holds...RBs average 2.26 more FF pts/game with every 1 yard/attempt improvement in a team's passing game. (Corr .39, AR^2 .15)

 

[Todem]

Ryan Grant = overvalued big time.I don't need formulas to come to that scouting report. Just good old football instincts and a long time playing this silly game. Favre not being there is going to be HUGE. And Brandon Jackson is going to warrent some PT as well. Grant has been out with a hammy already after geting his contract.Grant got his money....guy was a fluke last season and people will be crying about drafting him in the late second or early 3rd as their RB2 thinking he will be an RB1 type of player.Good effort though Chase. We just approach fantasy football from completly different perspectives.

What did you good old football instincts tell you about Tiki Barber or Willie Parker?

I was drafting FWP in rounds 13-17 the year he broke out. i watched him in a pre-season game against my Dolhpins and he was ripping off insane runs behinds a great Pitt line with an old Bus in the garge and a washed up Duce Staley hanging on for dear life as well. So I was all over the kid then in my dyansty leagues and WW's.Tiki was great value for a few years and was an obvious PPR beast till the secret was out 2 years before he hung it up.Ryan Grant is not a special talent in my eye test. he did look very good last year....running through bowling lanes. Let's see him create his own space when that defense starts pinching in with no respect for rodgers till he proves he garners respect. I just don;t see the great RB pedigree on him. Just an opinion.

I've run a number of different studies, and I'm just not convinced the QB has that much impact on a RB's fantasy numbers. It sounds good in theory, but I've yet to seen it proven. As one example, Tony Dorsett had very similar (but better) numbers the year after Staubach retired. I know Dorsett's awesome, but I don't see why that should matter -- if QB play matters, going from a HOF QB to an average QB should effect great RBs along with mediocre RBs. Obviously one example means nothing, but I just picked that one because Staubach's the only guy off the top of my head that played really well his last season of his career before retiring, similar to what's going on with Favre (moving on to a new team). I probably would like Grant a little more if Favre was still around, but I don't think it's significant and I wouldn't be surprised to find out that it's irrelevant whether you had a top 8 QB or a top 25 QB. I think a bottom of the barrel QB might present different circumstances, but no one projects Rodgers as that.

We are getting close. I think great RB's are going to be just that regardless of their QB so we are on the same page in that regard. But when you have guy's that are good but not special and they have a very good QB it changes the game. Defenses game plan different and schemes are not centered around the running game as much. Now a good running game can make a average QB better but a great QB can make an average RB very good. A great RB can make an average OL look great. We can go back and forth like "is it the singer or the song". I guess my main point is Favre helped Grant a lot along with that upstart OL they have in Green Bay. I don't see Grant having the great talent to make his own space and make something out of nothing. I see the lanes closing a lot more this season with Rodgers at QB. Rodgers may end up being ok but I see people projecting Ryan Grant as a stud type back in PPR and I see a huge dissapointment waiting to happen.If he does it all year in 2008 I will be eating crow.

 

[gregjcross]

Can't see how you can compare him with people who got the same number of carries in a full season RBBC, when he only played the second half of the season, or had an MVP caliber performance from his QB, or had an injured, higher pick on the team who had a chance to take carries. My biggest knocks on him is that I think that he was forced into action and succeeded because he had fresh legs against teams that had to worry about Favre. Next year he may share carries, he won't have the advantage of fresh legs, and he won't have Favre to keep defenses away from him. I like the idea of finding similar players, but your model doesnt' seem to address that.

BostonFred: While i believe those points above are valid, a bigger picture is that he a) looked very capable as he ran - not just a guy running through huge holes, his offensive line and system overall remain intact for 2008, Aaron Rogers is actually pretty capable QB. I dont think he will average above 4.4 YPC, but a strong season is very possible.

 

[dollarbill13]

Did you put any thought into adding weight/BMI into the equation? I know this is really only focused on the results but I have a hard time saying that Grant is similar to both Brandon Jacobs and Brian Westbrook...

 

[Chase Stuart]

Did you put any thought into adding weight/BMI into the equation? I know this is really only focused on the results but I have a hard time saying that Grant is similar to both Brandon Jacobs and Brian Westbrook...

Yeah, that's worth considering. On the other hand, I'm not sure if it would make the results more accurate or just make us feel better. (That is, assuming there *is* some predictability with this system, I'm not sure that would help.)

 

[gianmarco]

Did you put any thought into adding weight/BMI into the equation? I know this is really only focused on the results but I have a hard time saying that Grant is similar to both Brandon Jacobs and Brian Westbrook...

Oh no....please don't get this started....EBF, you are in BMI timeout.

 

[Tau837]

My expectation is that there will be no predictive value shown...

I'd like some of that action.If you looked at every RB of the last 20 years of NFL history, and ran this exercise on each of them, I'll bet you eleventy-trillion dollars there is a statistically significant (at the .0000000000001 level) correlation between actual year N+1 numbers and predicted Year N+1 numbers. But that's not what you meant. What you meant, I'm guessing, is no EXTRA predictive value. And my question is: compared to what? What's the "control" projection against which Chase's method is to be judged? Last year's stats? Dodds's projections?My guess (and it's purely a guess) is that this method would predict very slightly better than last year's stats, but not as well as Dodds' projections, or some sort of consensus projections, because Dodds's projections have more information.IMO something like what Chase is doing is potentially useful as a starting point, not an ending point. They're a replacement for last year's rankings. Not a replacement for preseason rankings.And yes, ultimately I suspect (but would be happy to be proven wrong) that they're not worth the hassle. Unless you just happen to enjoy the hassle of writing code and reminiscing about guys like Gary Brown.

You're right. I meant no *extra* predictive value over our already commonly used methods/tools. Now, perhaps if Dodds were to use this method to create his starting points for next year's projections, and it turned out that his projections were improved for next year over this year by a non-trivial margin, there might be something here. But I really don't expect that.IMO, situations change enough and sample sizes for combinations of talent and opportunity are small enough that there is no similarity formula that will do a better job of projecting than the methods already used by most of those who do projections around here. There was a series of threads a while back in which many staffers explained how they do projections, and some of their methods are quite comprehensive. Most importantly IMO, all of them try to account for specific situation for each projected player. Perhaps I'm off base here, but I don't thnk any formula can do that. So, yes, perhaps a better starting point, but unlikely to be a better ending point. And determining the starting point differently doesn't seem as if it will eliminate any of the work that goes into getting from current starting points to quality end projections.

 

[3nOut]

Grant has a lot more in common with Priest Holmes than almost anyone else on that list...

Young upon entry into the league

Low number of carries in college

Didn't get a shot in his first couple years for a good reason

Good size

Good power for his size

There's no reason to think he's not legit.

And his status as an UFA is largely explained by the facts that he increased his weight from 215 to 226 after entering the league (which bumped both his size and power from low/marginal to good), and had only had 280 carries in his last two years at Notre Dame.

Of course, much of the same could be said for Gary Brown, too. Their careers are eerily similar so far -- and they both only started half their games in the season we're looking at.It's an interesting group of comps, to be sure.

All said and done, what does this mean for Grant this year. Do you see him as a potential LJ and top 10 RB this year?

 

[qimqam]

Grant has a lot more in common with Priest Holmes than almost anyone else on that list...

Young upon entry into the league

Low number of carries in college

Didn't get a shot in his first couple years for a good reason

Good size

Good power for his size

There's no reason to think he's not legit.

And his status as an UFA is largely explained by the facts that he increased his weight from 215 to 226 after entering the league (which bumped both his size and power from low/marginal to good), and had only had 280 carries in his last two years at Notre Dame.

Of course, much of the same could be said for Gary Brown, too. Their careers are eerily similar so far -- and they both only started half their games in the season we're looking at.It's an interesting group of comps, to be sure.

All said and done, what does this mean for Grant this year. Do you see him as a potential LJ and top 10 RB this year?

Exactly ... What does this all mean? Is Grant going to be Good, Bad, Decent???????? After reading this thread I think I know less about Grant than I did before.

 

[cstu]

I wanted to cook up a similarity score for Ryan Grant, similar to what Doug Drinen's done before and what JKL did here. I think Grant's a guy I don't have a really good feel on; he's only started 7 games in his career, he was undrafted, yet he was incredible last season and he looks like a good RB. I don't really trust my eyes, though, so I wanted to know if history could guide us. To that extent, what have players like Ryan Grant 2007 done the following year?

Well, what's a player like Ryan Grant? There are seven noteworthy things about Ryan Grant's 2007 season.

-- He was in his first season as a starter

-- He was 25 years old

-- He was undrafted

-- He had 188 carries

-- He averaged 5.1 YPC

-- He rushed for 8 TDs

-- He caught 30 passes

Except for 6 TD's to Grant's 8 and that he was a 3rd round pick, that's Kevan Barlow.

 

[Tau837]

I wanted to cook up a similarity score for Ryan Grant, similar to what Doug Drinen's done before and what JKL did here. I think Grant's a guy I don't have a really good feel on; he's only started 7 games in his career, he was undrafted, yet he was incredible last season and he looks like a good RB. I don't really trust my eyes, though, so I wanted to know if history could guide us. To that extent, what have players like Ryan Grant 2007 done the following year?

Well, what's a player like Ryan Grant? There are seven noteworthy things about Ryan Grant's 2007 season.

-- He was in his first season as a starter

-- He was 25 years old

-- He was undrafted

-- He had 188 carries

-- He averaged 5.1 YPC

-- He rushed for 8 TDs

-- He caught 30 passes

Except for 6 TD's to Grant's 8 and that he was a 3rd round pick, that's Kevan Barlow.

Close, but not exactly. You appear to be talking about Barlow's third season, when he started only 4 games, and really acquired the bulk of his numbers as the second RB in a shared job. Exactly the type of apples and oranges comparison as has been pointed out earlier in this thread.

 

[Native]

Edits:Took IWBACB's advice and changed RB TD coefficient from 10 to 20.Took DD's advice and lowered the age variable and year starting variable coefficients from 50 to 30.Took DD's advice and changed YPC variable from: 40 * difference in YPC to 1.5 * difference in YPC *10 (so as to avoid squaring a number less than one). In practice, this means a RB who averaged 4.6 YPC goes from -20 to -37.5; 4.8 goes from -12 to -13.5; 4.1 goes from -40 to -150.

year	st   age	drval  rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim	2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	1000   Ryan Grant1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	899	Gary Brown2007	1	25	14.0	202	5.00	 4	23	869	Brandon Jacobs2003	0	24	18.1	201	5.09	 6	35	847	Kevan Barlow2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	846	Tatum Bell2007	1	28	 6.1	157	5.38	 7	29	838	Chester Taylor2004	0	25	10.1	118	4.57	 8	25	836	Derrick Blaylock2003	1	24	16.4	117	5.24	 7	37	835	Brian Westbrook2000	1	25	28.1	213	4.72	 8	70	825	Tiki Barber1998	1	25	 3.0	233	4.33	 7	43	823	Priest Holmes2002	0	24	 3.0	188	4.44	 6	38	821	Marcel Shipp2003	1	24	15.2	215	4.45	 9	21	820	Rudi Johnson2007	0	24	14.2	204	4.78	10	44	820	Marion Barber2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	819	Dominic Rhodes2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	813	Chris Brown1997	0	25	33.7	194	4.33	 8	28	813	Antowain Smith2005	1	25	 3.0	255	4.71	 4	18	808	Willie Parker1999	1	25	47.0	138	5.20	 6	23	806	Tim Biakabutuka1995	1	23	 6.8	237	4.71	 7	49	805	Terrell Davis1996	1	26	10.2	121	4.68	 5	31	802	Dorsey Levens1997	2	25	 6.2	151	4.62	 4	37	801	Charles Way2004	0	25	31.7	120	4.84	 9	22	800	Larry Johnson1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	795	Corey Dillon1993	2	24	25.3	208	4.57	10	31	793	Ricky Watters1997	1	22	 3.0	182	4.45	 7	 8	779	Fred Lane1996	1	24	 6.5	232	4.55	 5	49	778	Jamal Anderson1995	0	25	 3.0	107	5.33	 3	28	776	Robert Green2001	1	26	 3.0	213	4.12	 9	23	771	Stacey Mack2007	1	24	 3.0	140	5.21	 1	35	770	Selvin Young2006	0	23	 3.0	157	4.31	 8	20	769	Mike Bell1996	0	26	19.2	153	4.44	 8	 9	769	Lamar Smith

Chase, I suggested this in another post but its worth reitterating here: If you add Grants playoff carriers, the baseline carries number increases to 233. Using the same methodology, the following players suddenly shoot into the top 5-7 in year N:Corey Dillon (233 carries)Priest Holmes (237)Terrell Davis (233)Including Grant's playoff carries is important because it escalates him into another tier - the kind of RB that carried the load for his team over a large portion of the season. The current baseline - 188 carries - averages to only 11 carries a game over the course of a season. And thats not at all indicative of Grants role in 2007.Just a thought.

 

[Tau837]

Edits:Took IWBACB's advice and changed RB TD coefficient from 10 to 20.Took DD's advice and lowered the age variable and year starting variable coefficients from 50 to 30.Took DD's advice and changed YPC variable from: 40 * difference in YPC to 1.5 * difference in YPC *10 (so as to avoid squaring a number less than one). In practice, this means a RB who averaged 4.6 YPC goes from -20 to -37.5; 4.8 goes from -12 to -13.5; 4.1 goes from -40 to -150.

year	st   age	drval  rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim	2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	1000   Ryan Grant1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	899	Gary Brown2007	1	25	14.0	202	5.00	 4	23	869	Brandon Jacobs2003	0	24	18.1	201	5.09	 6	35	847	Kevan Barlow2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	846	Tatum Bell2007	1	28	 6.1	157	5.38	 7	29	838	Chester Taylor2004	0	25	10.1	118	4.57	 8	25	836	Derrick Blaylock2003	1	24	16.4	117	5.24	 7	37	835	Brian Westbrook2000	1	25	28.1	213	4.72	 8	70	825	Tiki Barber1998	1	25	 3.0	233	4.33	 7	43	823	Priest Holmes2002	0	24	 3.0	188	4.44	 6	38	821	Marcel Shipp2003	1	24	15.2	215	4.45	 9	21	820	Rudi Johnson2007	0	24	14.2	204	4.78	10	44	820	Marion Barber2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	819	Dominic Rhodes2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	813	Chris Brown1997	0	25	33.7	194	4.33	 8	28	813	Antowain Smith2005	1	25	 3.0	255	4.71	 4	18	808	Willie Parker1999	1	25	47.0	138	5.20	 6	23	806	Tim Biakabutuka1995	1	23	 6.8	237	4.71	 7	49	805	Terrell Davis1996	1	26	10.2	121	4.68	 5	31	802	Dorsey Levens1997	2	25	 6.2	151	4.62	 4	37	801	Charles Way2004	0	25	31.7	120	4.84	 9	22	800	Larry Johnson1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	795	Corey Dillon1993	2	24	25.3	208	4.57	10	31	793	Ricky Watters1997	1	22	 3.0	182	4.45	 7	 8	779	Fred Lane1996	1	24	 6.5	232	4.55	 5	49	778	Jamal Anderson1995	0	25	 3.0	107	5.33	 3	28	776	Robert Green2001	1	26	 3.0	213	4.12	 9	23	771	Stacey Mack2007	1	24	 3.0	140	5.21	 1	35	770	Selvin Young2006	0	23	 3.0	157	4.31	 8	20	769	Mike Bell1996	0	26	19.2	153	4.44	 8	 9	769	Lamar Smith

Chase, I suggested this in another post but its worth reitterating here: If you add Grants playoff carriers, the baseline carries number increases to 233. Using the same methodology, the following players suddenly shoot into the top 5-7 in year N:Corey Dillon (233 carries)Priest Holmes (237)Terrell Davis (233)Including Grant's playoff carries is important because it escalates him into another tier - the kind of RB that carried the load for his team over a large portion of the season. The current baseline - 188 carries - averages to only 11 carries a game over the course of a season. And thats not at all indicative of Grants role in 2007.Just a thought.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here's Grant with his post-season numbers:

year	st   age	drval  rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim	2007	1	25	 3.0	228	5.20	11	33	1000   Ryan Grant (post incl)2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	892	Ryan Grant (regular)1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	838	Corey Dillon2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	831	Dominic Rhodes2007	0	24	14.2	204	4.78	10	44	825	Marion Barber1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	807	Gary Brown1993	2	24	25.3	208	4.57	10	31	791	Ricky Watters2007	1	25	14.0	202	5.00	 4	23	785	Brandon Jacobs2003	1	24	15.2	215	4.45	 9	21	784	Rudi Johnson1998	1	25	 3.0	233	4.33	 7	43	780	Priest Holmes2003	0	24	18.1	201	5.09	 6	35	777	Kevan Barlow1995	1	23	 6.8	237	4.71	 7	49	776	Terrell Davis2005	1	25	 3.0	255	4.71	 4	18	767	Willie Parker2000	1	25	28.1	213	4.72	 8	70	766	Tiki Barber2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	761	Chris Brown2000	1	27	 7.2	297	5.01	15	23	757	Mike Anderson1997	3	25	34.9	232	5.46	 6	37	754	Robert Smith2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	746	Tatum Bell2003	1	24	16.4	117	5.24	 7	37	744	Brian Westbrook1996	1	24	 6.5	232	4.55	 5	49	743	Jamal Anderson2007	1	28	 6.1	157	5.38	 7	29	740	Chester Taylor2000	2	24	45.5	292	4.79	12	36	740	Fred Taylor2006	0	23	30.4	226	4.78	 7	40	733	Joseph Addai2007	1	22	48.7	238	5.63	12	19	732	Adrian L. Peterson2002	2	24	31.7	255	5.08	 5	37	725	Michael Bennett1999	2	25	15.0	290	4.84	17	23	725	Stephen Davis2004	0	25	31.7	120	4.84	 9	22	723	Larry Johnson

 

[gianmarco]

Here's Grant with his post-season numbers:

year	st   age	drval  rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim	2007	1	25	 3.0	228	5.20	11	33	1000   Ryan Grant (post incl)2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	892	Ryan Grant (regular)1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	838	Corey Dillon2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	831	Dominic Rhodes2007	0	24	14.2	204	4.78	10	44	825	Marion Barber1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	807	Gary Brown1993	2	24	25.3	208	4.57	10	31	791	Ricky Watters2007	1	25	14.0	202	5.00	 4	23	785	Brandon Jacobs2003	1	24	15.2	215	4.45	 9	21	784	Rudi Johnson1998	1	25	 3.0	233	4.33	 7	43	780	Priest Holmes2003	0	24	18.1	201	5.09	 6	35	777	Kevan Barlow1995	1	23	 6.8	237	4.71	 7	49	776	Terrell Davis2005	1	25	 3.0	255	4.71	 4	18	767	Willie Parker2000	1	25	28.1	213	4.72	 8	70	766	Tiki Barber2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	761	Chris Brown2000	1	27	 7.2	297	5.01	15	23	757	Mike Anderson1997	3	25	34.9	232	5.46	 6	37	754	Robert Smith2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	746	Tatum Bell2003	1	24	16.4	117	5.24	 7	37	744	Brian Westbrook1996	1	24	 6.5	232	4.55	 5	49	743	Jamal Anderson2007	1	28	 6.1	157	5.38	 7	29	740	Chester Taylor2000	2	24	45.5	292	4.79	12	36	740	Fred Taylor2006	0	23	30.4	226	4.78	 7	40	733	Joseph Addai2007	1	22	48.7	238	5.63	12	19	732	Adrian L. Peterson2002	2	24	31.7	255	5.08	 5	37	725	Michael Bennett1999	2	25	15.0	290	4.84	17	23	725	Stephen Davis2004	0	25	31.7	120	4.84	 9	22	723	Larry Johnson

Wow, that's a significant difference and MUCH more promising, IMO.

 

[tytyty]

Grant has a lot more in common with Priest Holmes than almost anyone else on that list...

Young upon entry into the league

Low number of carries in college

Didn't get a shot in his first couple years for a good reason

Good size

Good power for his size

There's no reason to think he's not legit.

And his status as an UFA is largely explained by the facts that he increased his weight from 215 to 226 after entering the league (which bumped both his size and power from low/marginal to good), and had only had 280 carries in his last two years at Notre Dame.

Of course, much of the same could be said for Gary Brown, too. Their careers are eerily similar so far -- and they both only started half their games in the season we're looking at.It's an interesting group of comps, to be sure.

All said and done, what does this mean for Grant this year. Do you see him as a potential LJ and top 10 RB this year?

Exactly ... What does this all mean? Is Grant going to be Good, Bad, Decent???????? After reading this thread I think I know less about Grant than I did before.

haha, dude i asked this like 10 hours ago. they are in serious geek heaven right now and its harder to stop them then my dog when he utilizes his mississippi leg hound in him. pleaseeeeeeeeeee for the dults in here. grant..... based on somethin somethin. does the past show better or worse?? then go on to e=mc2 all you want. haha love this forum.

 

[jesseasi]

I don't know about all this stats stuff and how it relates to future production for Ryan Grant.

But here are my two cents.

When I think of how Grant exploded onto the scene, how he was undrafted, and how he did not pan out for his 1st team......

I can't help but think... Samkon Gado.

Same Team - CHECK

Undrafted Player - CHECK

Did not work out with his first team - CHECK

Had trouble holding on to the ball in key situations - CHECK

Hopefully Grant can avoid the injuries.

I am a little skeptical of him.

 

[gianmarco]

I don't know about all this stats stuff and how it relates to future production for Ryan Grant. But here are my two cents.When I think of how Grant exploded onto the scene, how he was undrafted, and how he did not pan out for his 1st team......I can't help but think... Samkon Gado.Same Team - CHECKUndrafted Player - CHECKDid not work out with his first team - CHECKHad trouble holding on to the ball in key situations - CHECKHopefully Grant can avoid the injuries. I am a little skeptical of him.

Did you watch Gado and watch Grant? 2 different runners.

 

[Tau837]

I don't know about all this stats stuff and how it relates to future production for Ryan Grant. But here are my two cents.When I think of how Grant exploded onto the scene, how he was undrafted, and how he did not pan out for his 1st team......I can't help but think... Samkon Gado.Same Team - CHECKUndrafted Player - CHECKDid not work out with his first team - CHECKHad trouble holding on to the ball in key situations - CHECKHopefully Grant can avoid the injuries. I am a little skeptical of him.

I take it you've never seen them play...

 

[redjake]

This thread makes my pants tight.

 

[loose circuits]

I don't know about all this stats stuff and how it relates to future production for Ryan Grant. But here are my two cents.When I think of how Grant exploded onto the scene, how he was undrafted, and how he did not pan out for his 1st team......I can't help but think... Samkon Gado.Same Team - CHECKUndrafted Player - CHECKDid not work out with his first team - CHECKHad trouble holding on to the ball in key situations - CHECKHopefully Grant can avoid the injuries. I am a little skeptical of him.

out of all the information in this thread that I think is the only slightly usable because I'm not sure you can create any type of relevance using so few variables when there are so many factors of how Grant's year turns out. Some of them like how Green Bays D plays of course is out of his control.But anyways, back to this crap. I have no idea how you see a similarity. I could see the same thing with Priest Holmes with the Ravens and then the Chiefs. Doesn't make sense especially when you say he didn't pan out. He got traded because of a numbers game and he looked fantastic once he got healthy in New York.

 

[Native]

Here's Grant with his post-season numbers:

year	st   age	drval  rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim	2007	1	25	 3.0	228	5.20	11	33	1000   Ryan Grant (post incl)2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	892	Ryan Grant (regular)1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	838	Corey Dillon2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	831	Dominic Rhodes2007	0	24	14.2	204	4.78	10	44	825	Marion Barber1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	807	Gary Brown1993	2	24	25.3	208	4.57	10	31	791	Ricky Watters2007	1	25	14.0	202	5.00	 4	23	785	Brandon Jacobs2003	1	24	15.2	215	4.45	 9	21	784	Rudi Johnson1998	1	25	 3.0	233	4.33	 7	43	780	Priest Holmes2003	0	24	18.1	201	5.09	 6	35	777	Kevan Barlow1995	1	23	 6.8	237	4.71	 7	49	776	Terrell Davis2005	1	25	 3.0	255	4.71	 4	18	767	Willie Parker2000	1	25	28.1	213	4.72	 8	70	766	Tiki Barber2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	761	Chris Brown2000	1	27	 7.2	297	5.01	15	23	757	Mike Anderson1997	3	25	34.9	232	5.46	 6	37	754	Robert Smith2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	746	Tatum Bell2003	1	24	16.4	117	5.24	 7	37	744	Brian Westbrook1996	1	24	 6.5	232	4.55	 5	49	743	Jamal Anderson2007	1	28	 6.1	157	5.38	 7	29	740	Chester Taylor2000	2	24	45.5	292	4.79	12	36	740	Fred Taylor2006	0	23	30.4	226	4.78	 7	40	733	Joseph Addai2007	1	22	48.7	238	5.63	12	19	732	Adrian L. Peterson2002	2	24	31.7	255	5.08	 5	37	725	Michael Bennett1999	2	25	15.0	290	4.84	17	23	725	Stephen Davis2004	0	25	31.7	120	4.84	 9	22	723	Larry Johnson

Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Ned]

Here's Grant with his post-season numbers:

year	st   age	drval  rsh	ypc	 rtd   rec   Sim	 2007	1	25	 3.0	228	5.20	11	33	1000   Ryan Grant (post incl) 2007	1	25	 3.0	188	5.09	 8	30	892	Ryan Grant (regular) 1997	1	23	25.9	233	4.85	10	27	838	Corey Dillon 2001	1	22	 3.0	233	4.74	 9	34	831	Dominic Rhodes 2007	0	24	14.2	204	4.78	10	44	825	Marion Barber 1993	1	24	 5.7	195	5.14	 6	21	807	Gary Brown 1993	2	24	25.3	208	4.57	10	31	791	Ricky Watters 2007	1	25	14.0	202	5.00	 4	23	785	Brandon Jacobs 2003	1	24	15.2	215	4.45	 9	21	784	Rudi Johnson 1998	1	25	 3.0	233	4.33	 7	43	780	Priest Holmes 2003	0	24	18.1	201	5.09	 6	35	777	Kevan Barlow 1995	1	23	 6.8	237	4.71	 7	49	776	Terrell Davis 2005	1	25	 3.0	255	4.71	 4	18	767	Willie Parker 2000	1	25	28.1	213	4.72	 8	70	766	Tiki Barber 2004	1	23	16.2	220	4.85	 6	20	761	Chris Brown 2000	1	27	 7.2	297	5.01	15	23	757	Mike Anderson 1997	3	25	34.9	232	5.46	 6	37	754	Robert Smith 2005	0	24	26.5	173	5.32	 8	18	746	Tatum Bell 2003	1	24	16.4	117	5.24	 7	37	744	Brian Westbrook 1996	1	24	 6.5	232	4.55	 5	49	743	Jamal Anderson 2007	1	28	 6.1	157	5.38	 7	29	740	Chester Taylor 2000	2	24	45.5	292	4.79	12	36	740	Fred Taylor 2006	0	23	30.4	226	4.78	 7	40	733	Joseph Addai 2007	1	22	48.7	238	5.63	12	19	732	Adrian L. Peterson 2002	2	24	31.7	255	5.08	 5	37	725	Michael Bennett 1999	2	25	15.0	290	4.84	17	23	725	Stephen Davis 2004	0	25	31.7	120	4.84	 9	22	723	Larry Johnson

sheesh. nice company he's got going there.