A. Ellington -- Worth a 2nd Round Reach in PPR? (1 Viewer)

[kyoun1e]

I've got the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR league. First round is no problem: I'll take whatever falls of Calvin Johnson, J. Graham, and E. Lacy.

In the 2nd round, I'd ideally like to find a RB to fit a "run n shoot" offense where I can play either 3 WR/2 TE or 4 WR/ 1 TE. While I pick at #18 in round 2, Ellington seems to go mid 20s after I pick.

Is he worth the slight reach understanding the above?

All the other RBs that are getting drafted in that area seem to have some serious warts:

* L. Bell (L. Blount)

* A. Foster (injuries, lousy offense)

* M. Lynch (probably gone, but workload issues)

* A. Morris (doesn't catch the ball)

* D. Martin (offensive line issues)

* Z. Stacy (Plodder, lack of ppr value)

In fact, per ADP, ALL of the above RBs are somewhat of a reach for pick 18.

Ellington seems safe in his role and a perfect fit for PPR.

Worthy of top 10 RBs and a mid 2nd round pick?

Thanks

 

[Khy]

In my eyes, sure... I'd say he has the least question marks of all the RBs in his range. As you said, Bell has Blount and clearly the Steelers want to get Archer involved and he's probably gone by the time you'd be thinking about Ellington. Foster has injuried and a team that is a shell of it's former self. Lynch, likely not on the board by then. Morris, not really pickable until the 3rd/4th round in PPR. Martin, he was AWFUL last season.... and got hurt and missed the whole season. Stacy is solid but he'll lose touches to Mason by mid season I think.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Of the list you mentioned, I'd take Ellington in full PPR over everyone but Lynch (no-brainer at 18 if he's there) and Martin (JMO but I think he has a significant bounceback this year, and he's no pass-catching slouch himself).

Having said that, why reach for him? If you can start 5 WRs/TEs, getting two elite ones out of the gate will put you at a big advantage over the average team. Guys like J. Bell, Tate, or Sproles don't get bid up nearly commensurate with their realistic value in full PPR, and you should be able to get one or two of them 3-5 rounds later than Ellington. Good luck finding that sort of value at the WR position in the 6th round of a full-PPR draft.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

no

 

[bagger]

no

agree. There are way better options at wr in the 2nd, and even some other RBs.

 

[Freelove]

He's probably safe there. Still wouldn't be the way I'd go, unless the draft really surprised me.

I think the value you can get at WR, coupled with guys like Jennings and Pierre later, or whoever, would probably bring you greater overall gains.

Doubtful that Murray or Ball fall, but I'd take either over him if they did. I'd also take Gio ahead of him, and I see his current ADP in PPR's is right at 18. I think Ellington projects at least as well as Gio in those scoring systems, but if they play about as well as each other, I think Gio packs far more trade value due to hype and recognition.

So, in order, I'd be looking for:

- a better RB to fall

- a target-hogging WR instead

- Gio

- Ellington, if all esle fails

I think he'd work out, but you could do better.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

If you only need to start one RB, taking any RB outside of the elite tier (Charles, McCoy, AP, Forte) that early is just a bad play IMO. Load up on stud WRs / Graham and grab value RBs later.

 

[kyoun1e]

Assuming I get either Calvin Johnson or Graham at #7, I'd really like a RB in round 2.

While pairing a stud WR (Marshall, Julio, AJ Green, etc.) would be great, I do believe there is a ton of WR depth later on.

Also, I am not a believer in any of this mid-round RBs that people are pinning their hopes on --- R. Jennings, T. Gerhart, R. Mathews, etc. Not even Vereen...I'm a huge pats fan and he's going to be too up in down in that offense depending on the gameplan and the guy can't stay on the field.

That's why I'd like to grab a halfway decent RB to hold down that RB1 slot in the run n shoot.

If Calvin and Graham are gone...ok good...Lacy is the guy. If no Lacy, strongly considering Ellington (and Gio in that spot as well...although in CBS his default ranking is too damn high and he's going too early in mocks).

KY

 

[chickensoup]

No way. You are basically asking Ellington to be a Jamaal Charles somewhere between 2009/2010. Besides a high YPC last year in limited action, what makes you think that's likely? Charles in many ways is a historically good RB, mostly in efficiency. But that team has been good at running for what? 15 or so years? The Cardinals have not and don't really seem like a team poised to be.

It's very likely that Ellington plays out the year as basically CJ Spiller last year. 10-12 carries/game, 2-3 receptions per game, a chance at a long TD run but loses goal line work. When he breaks a big run he will be startable. When he doesn't he probably hurts your team.

He may end up in the RB10-14 range by years end but that would likely be because of a combo of injuries to other RB who should give more consistant weekly production when they play (Murray/Foster types) and a couple of big games with long TD. Call me not excited. It's the same reason Gio doesn't excite me. No matter the league type, goal line work matters. Being pulled to pass protect matters. getting only about 240 total touches matters. You're talking a second round pick on a guy playing a position with a huge bust rate that may get limited touches. That's not the security blanket you're looking for in the first 2-3 rounds.

 

[kyoun1e]

No way. You are basically asking Ellington to be a Jamaal Charles somewhere between 2009/2010. Besides a high YPC last year in limited action, what makes you think that's likely? Charles in many ways is a historically good RB, mostly in efficiency. But that team has been good at running for what? 15 or so years? The Cardinals have not and don't really seem like a team poised to be.

It's very likely that Ellington plays out the year as basically CJ Spiller last year. 10-12 carries/game, 2-3 receptions per game, a chance at a long TD run but loses goal line work. When he breaks a big run he will be startable. When he doesn't he probably hurts your team.

He may end up in the RB10-14 range by years end but that would likely be because of a combo of injuries to other RB who should give more consistant weekly production when they play (Murray/Foster types) and a couple of big games with long TD. Call me not excited. It's the same reason Gio doesn't excite me. No matter the league type, goal line work matters. Being pulled to pass protect matters. getting only about 240 total touches matters. You're talking a second round pick on a guy playing a position with a huge bust rate that may get limited touches. That's not the security blanket you're looking for in the first 2-3 rounds.

Solid logic.

My only disagreement would be around Gio who would appear has done goalline work and is expected to this year. Maybe not exclusively, but all signs seem to point to Gio getting his share.

 

[White Lightning]

Stretch? No. Christopher Harris just took him at 2.6 in a 12 team PPR "expert" mock draft. I'm sitting at 2.11 and 3.2, and I'm hoping to grab him at the latter pick. Dodds has him at 31 in PPR leagues and only rushing for 800 yards.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I did it.

4th round in a (start 2 QB) 12-teamer.

 

[kyoun1e]

Stretch? No. Christopher Harris just took him at 2.6 in a 12 team PPR "expert" mock draft. I'm sitting at 2.11 and 3.2, and I'm hoping to grab him at the latter pick. Dodds has him at 31 in PPR leagues and only rushing for 800 yards.

And in the Yahoo Family & Friends draft Ellington went #16 overall with .75 PPR.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/friends-and-family-matters--dissecting-an-experts-draft-001048573.html

And Gio was taken #11 overall by Brad Evans.

These so called "experts" seem to think these two players would be fine at #18 overall.

 

[Bobtender]

How is this not a "who do I draft" thread?

 

[pizzatyme]

How is this not a "who do I draft" thread?

Because we know who we'd be drafting?

I've seen Ellington going in the 2nd round pretty consistently the last few weeks in FFPC drafts.

 

[Bobtender]

How is this not a "who do I draft" thread?

Because we know who we'd be drafting?

I've seen Ellington going in the 2nd round pretty consistently the last few weeks in FFPC drafts.

You and others replying may know who you are drafting but this doesn't seem to you that the OP is asking who he should draft?

I've got the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR league. First round is no problem: I'll take whatever falls of Calvin Johnson, J. Graham, and E. Lacy.

In the 2nd round, I'd ideally like to find a RB to fit a "run n shoot" offense where I can play either 3 WR/2 TE or 4 WR/ 1 TE. While I pick at #18 in round 2, Ellington seems to go mid 20s after I pick.

Is he worth the slight reach understanding the above?

All the other RBs that are getting drafted in that area seem to have some serious warts:

* L. Bell (L. Blount)

* A. Foster (injuries, lousy offense)

* M. Lynch (probably gone, but workload issues)

* A. Morris (doesn't catch the ball)

* D. Martin (offensive line issues)

* Z. Stacy (Plodder, lack of ppr value)

In fact, per ADP, ALL of the above RBs are somewhat of a reach for pick 18.

Ellington seems safe in his role and a perfect fit for PPR.

Worthy of top 10 RBs and a mid 2nd round pick?

Thanks

Seriously... I'd just like to know.

 

[Second Sight]

In PPR, I would take Foster before I would take Ellington in this scenario. Young and shiny doesn't always equate to better. With that being said, in this scenario, I wouldn't do EITHER of these things. I just mention Foster to underline the point that I would, like some others have said, go heavy on WR, etc and fill in a RB later.

 

[ldizzle]

Ellington has never carried the load and has an injury history in college. He is anything but a "safe pick"

 

[We Tigers]

How is this not a "who do I draft" thread?

It kind of is, but people responding have done well at turning it into a broader "when should you take Andre Ellington and why" thread, which is kind of the point of a fantasy football message board, no?I think Ellington in the mid-2nd is a bit of a reach, but if he's someone you seriously think is going to be player of the year, he might be worth taking since you may not get another shot at him. Now that Foster is back practicing and seems to be doing fine, I think it would be hard to pass on him for Ellington should they both be there. There are no "easy choices" in the middle of the second, but you'll also probably have one of Julio Jones or Marshall to consider.

I'd suggest that you identify a couple of 3rd and 4th round backs you like better than the rest so that you can take whatever falls at pick 18. It might still be Ellington, but you should have a gameplan with many paths.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Ellington's has surged into the early-third round, where he's going just behind Zac Stacy, and ahead of Reggie Bush, Toby Gerhart, Ryan Mathews, and Frank Gore. It's still an open question as to whether Ellington's 5-foot-9, 199-pound frame can handle the heavylifting he's apparently ticketed for. He did add 10 pounds before camp, although the history of offseason running back weight gains isn't pretty. Most notably, Steve Slaton, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, and Trent Richardson all fell off the map after putting on offseason weight. Adrian Peterson and Ryan Mathews later regretted it. Jamaal Charles is built somewhat similarly to Ellington, but Charles is a genuinely rare talent, and could be considered an outlier. Are you willing to bet Ellington is an outlier?

Ellington never reached 225 carries in a college season, but was frequently injured at Clemson. A severe toe injury cost him nearly half of his sophomore year, and he underwent post-season surgery to repair a ligament tear and fractured sesamoid bone. He played through an ankle injury as a junior and had surgery after the year. Ellington battled a bad hamstring as a senior, followed by setbacks during the 2013 pre-draft process. He suffered a concussion in 2013 training camp. He missed a game with a sprained MCL. He missed practice time with knee and thigh injuries. Sports Injury Predictor's algorithm has identified Ellington as one of the four likeliest running backs to suffer a 2014 injury. You can read more about that here.

The Cardinals' offensive line remains a concern, especially with LG Jonathan Cooper struggling mightily in camp and preseason games. Cooper has already been benched for Bucs castoff Ted Larsen. Right guard and right tackle still seem undecided. Preseason usage suggests Ellington will be replaced at the goal line by Taylor or Dwyer. I'm also skeptical Bruce Arians will truly be willing to slam Ellington into the line over 200 times. He appeared to be at peak effectiveness on 118 carries last year. In the fantasy community, I think Ellington has gone from severely underrated to pretty severely overrated in a one-year span.

My advice? Avoid Ellington in re-draft leagues this year. Shop him in Dynasty with his perceived value at its peak. If you're going to use early-round picks on running backs, draft high-volume workhorses. They'll be much more consistent and score more touchdowns.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/48156/139/the-shy-away-top-40?pg=2

From Rotoworld's "Shy Away 40" article. I don't agree with Silva on a lot of his shy away picks, but he makes a compelling case to be cautious about drafting Ellington here.

 

[kyoun1e]

Curious what people are seeing in drafts. Is Ellington going 2nd round PPR?

I've got pick 18 and I'm tempted.

Assuming WR in round 1 and considering all the crud at RB in rounds 3 - 5, I'm thinking about Ellington in round 2 (or maybe D. Martin).

 

[Square]

Curious what people are seeing in drafts. Is Ellington going 2nd round PPR?

I've got pick 18 and I'm tempted.

Assuming WR in round 1 and considering all the crud at RB in rounds 3 - 5, I'm thinking about Ellington in round 2 (or maybe D. Martin).

I took him at 3.2 in a local PPR last night as a RB2. From what I remember the RBs left were Bush, Chris Johnson, Tate, Z. Stacy, and Ryan Mathews. DIdn't really love any of them better than Ellington and wanted to take a RB before too many went off the board. I took some late round fliers on Ingram and Ivory. Hope I can get RB2 production out of one of them for the year.

 

[Vector]

Curious what people are seeing in drafts. Is Ellington going 2nd round PPR?

I've got pick 18 and I'm tempted.

Assuming WR in round 1 and considering all the crud at RB in rounds 3 - 5, I'm thinking about Ellington in round 2 (or maybe D. Martin).

I play in an auction league (PPR) and spent $11 ($100 Cap) on him.

 

[GolferMike]

I think the 2nd is too early in a PPR league. I'd rather go with the zero RB approach in a PPR league this year with some of the stud WRs that are at the top of the draft.

In a 10 team PPR league. We start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR/TE, 1TE, 1D/ST, 1K.

I had the 9th pick in a snake draft and ended up like this.

1. Demaryius Thomas

2. Dez Bryant

3. Randle Cobb

4. Andre Ellington

5. Rashad Jennings

6. Cordarelle Patterson

7. Joique Bell

8. Danny Woodhead

9. Jay Cutler

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Cam Newton

12. Brandin Cooks

13. Terrance West

14. 49ers D/ST

15. Kelvin Benjamin

16. Martellus Bennett

17. Dexter McCluster

18. Adam Vinatieri

 

[T with T]

I've got the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR league. First round is no problem: I'll take whatever falls of Calvin Johnson, J. Graham, and E. Lacy.

In the 2nd round, I'd ideally like to find a RB to fit a "run n shoot" offense where I can play either 3 WR/2 TE or 4 WR/ 1 TE. While I pick at #18 in round 2, Ellington seems to go mid 20s after I pick.

Is he worth the slight reach understanding the above?

All the other RBs that are getting drafted in that area seem to have some serious warts:

* L. Bell (L. Blount)

* A. Foster (injuries, lousy offense)

* M. Lynch (probably gone, but workload issues)

* A. Morris (doesn't catch the ball)

* D. Martin (offensive line issues)

* Z. Stacy (Plodder, lack of ppr value)

In fact, per ADP, ALL of the above RBs are somewhat of a reach for pick 18.

Ellington seems safe in his role and a perfect fit for PPR.

Worthy of top 10 RBs and a mid 2nd round pick?

Thanks

I got Ellington in 3rd round off 5th pick and could have taken him 3rd round off 7th pick... I took R. Bush Instead... Ellington is great 3rd... Rb/wr in first Wr in 2nd and Rb in 3rd

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

I think the 2nd is too early in a PPR league. I'd rather go with the zero RB approach in a PPR league this year with some of the stud WRs that are at the top of the draft.

In a 10 team PPR league. We start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR/TE, 1TE, 1D/ST, 1K.

I had the 9th pick in a snake draft and ended up like this.

1. Demaryius Thomas

2. Dez Bryant

3. Randle Cobb

4. Andre Ellington

5. Rashad Jennings

6. Cordarelle Patterson

7. Joique Bell

8. Danny Woodhead

9. Jay Cutler

10. Kyle Rudolph

11. Cam Newton

12. Brandin Cooks

13. Terrance West

14. 49ers D/ST

15. Kelvin Benjamin

16. Martellus Bennett

17. Dexter McCluster

18. Adam Vinatieri

That's a nice team.