A history lesson from footballguys.com (1 Viewer)

[JAA]

Ive been high on Rivers all this off-season. I do own him in a lot of leagues and this is simply due to the fact I value him more than most folks. So take this post with a grain of salt, but please do comment on my facts and figures using history as a lesson.

Rivers and Palmer IMO have a lot in common. The both were very productive in college. They both were drafted as franchise QBs. They both sat out their rookie season. Most importantly, both QBs were behind QBs that were let go after their rookie season so they could become the starter.

I received my "Footballguys Week 1 Preliminary Cheatsheets" email from FBGs today and was dumbfounded as to why they have Rivers projected as they do. Without going into the entire rankings comparatively, FBGs has Rivers ranked 22 outta 32 starting QBs for week 1. Also, FBG has Rivers projected as the 20th best QB this season.

How can I prove Rivers should be ranked higher? I will use Carson Palmer as an example. Here the FBG game recap I found in my Cheatsheets Outlook folder from Palmers first football game dated Mon 9/13/2004 6:49 PM:

Cincinnati Bengals 24 at New York Jets 31

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer's debut as the starting quarterback for the Bengal's was, for the most part, a success, but his lone interception late in the 4th quarter was a costly one. The turnover ultimately ended any chance for a Cincinnati comeback because time was not on their side. Palmer threw for 248 yards and 2 TDs in the game.

Cincinnati's rushing attack had problems throughout the entire game. In all fairness to RB Rudi Johnson (70 yards rushing, 1 TD, and 1 fumble), the offensive line was a mess. Starters Rich Braham (Center) and Willie Anderson (Tackle) both played, but were listed as questionable prior to kickoff with knee injuries. Eric Steinbach

(Guard) didn't start because of problems with the arm he had operated on in the off-season. Larry Moore (Center/Guard) started in his place. That is, until Braham had to leave the game for good in the first half. Moore then moved to center and Steinbach came off the bench to play guard. With rookie RB Chris Perry not playing due to injury, Kenny Watson (1 rush for 25 yards, and 2 receptions for 15 yards and 1 TD) made the most out of his brief playing time.

WR Chad Johnson led all Bengal receivers with 5 receptions for 99 yards and 1 TD. Peter Warrick, also nursing an injury since the off-season, had a good game, catching 5 passes for 76 yards. However, he did not score. T.J. Houshmandzadeh caught three of the four passes thrown his way. He also had a few quality returns on special teams. Reggie Kelly represented all Bengal TEs with 1 reception for 3 yards.

The Bengal defense could not stop Jets RB Curtis Martin. He punished Cincinnati's defense all the way until the end of the game before Coach Herman Edwards pulled him with less than a minute left. He could have gone over 200 yards rushing, but Edwards showed some mercy and class. As bad as the run defense was, the pass defense wasn't much better. Rookie CB Madieu Williams, starting the entire game for the injured, Deltha O'Neal, was schooled by several New York receivers in the first half. However, he came back strong in the second half.

The Bengal Special Teams played particularly well the entire game, and K Shayne Graham converted on his only FG attempt of 22 yards.

LB Brian Simmons did not play due to injury, and starting safety Rogers Beckett left the game in the first quarter with a concussion.

WHAT YOU OUGHT TO KNOW

Cincinnati Bengals

QB: Carson Palmer (18-27-248 passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int, 2-10 rushing). At times, Palmer looked fantastic, putting the ball right where it needed to be. However, on a couple of other plays, he dangerously under-threw, or threw behind his receivers. He could have very easily had 2-3 interceptions in the game, but Jets defenders couldn't hang on to the ball. Overall, Palmer had a pretty good game, despite one important interception. He also showed a lot of poise in his first NFL start. He made good decisions most of the game, and even had an impressive run for a first down. On the same play, he wisely stepped out of bounds before getting tattooed by a defender.

RB: Rudi Johnson (24-70 rushing, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost, 0-0 receiving on 2 targets). Johnson put up respectable fantasy numbers, but he got stuffed at the line of scrimmage too many times to count. Again, his offensive line is a mess right now, so his performance is hard to gauge. Also, the fumble he lost was actually a really good strip by the defense. Not only did Johnson have trouble running inside, he found no running room on the corner. He was the intended receiver on a couple of short passes up the middle, but he kept getting caught up in the cluster of offensive and defensive lineman. Johnson also had a nice 9-yard gain negated because of a holding call.

Kenny Watson (1-25 rushing, 0 TD, 2-15 receiving on 2 targets, 1 TD). Watson didn't touch the ball a lot, but he sure looked good when he did. His touchdown could have been reviewed, but the replay showed he crossed the plane of the goal line before the ball bounced off the turf.

WR: Chad Johnson (5-99 receiving on 8 targets, 1 TD). Johnson looked very fast, ran great routes, and caught just about everything thrown his way. He also made a great adjustment on a pass from Palmer for a 53-yard touchdown reception.

Peter Warrick (5-76 receiving on 7 targets, 0 TD, 1-8 rushing, 0 TD). Warrick spent most of training camp and the preseason rehabbing his knee. To do what he did against New York after missing so much practice time is pretty remarkable. He didn't find the end zone, but the knee looked pretty good. On his only rushing attempt, a semi-busted trick play, he reversed field and gained 8 yards. Warrick also prevented an interception when he knocked the ball from a defender's grasp.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3-38 receiving on 4 targets, 0 TD). Houshmandzadeh looked great when he was given a chance. However, he didn't get many opportunities. His kick return skills were very helpful in giving the Bengal's pretty good field position most of the game. Houshmandzadeh's all-around performance against the Jet's was very typical of the way he played in preseason games. The Bengal's can only hope that his chronically injured hamstring holds up all season.

Kelley Washington (1-9 receiving on 2 targets 0 TD). With three other talented receivers around, it's hard to get a share.

TE: Reggie Kelly (1-3 receiving on 1 target, 0 TD).

K: Shayne Graham (3 XP, 1-1 FG).

Pass Defense: Despite getting torched throughout the first half, CB Madieu Williams rebounded in the second half, making a nice play on a third and goal that prevented a Jets TD. New York settled for a FG on the next play. Williams also had a huge play on Jets WR, McCareins, that enabled Cincinnati one last shot at tying/winning the game. However, the Bengal's next series ended on Palmer's interception. Besides the Jets taking advantage of a rookie, none of New York's receivers had a "huge" day, individually. However, the Bengals did give up 224 passing yards and 2 TDs to Pennington.

Rush Defense: The Bengal's provided no rush defense whatsoever. Defenders were having a very difficult time shedding blocks, and there was virtually no pass rush applied to Pennington, who frequently had all the time he wanted before making his throws. The rush defense picked up where it left off in '03, when the unit gave up a huge day to Cleveland RB, Lee Suggs, in the final game of the season. DE Justin Smith's biggest contribution was taking a shot to Pennington's head after he clearly released a pass. His lack of judgment gave the Jets the ball at the Bengal 9-yard line. Three plays later, Curtis Martin ran in a screen pass for a TD.

This is the NFL Gamecenter Box Score link to that game. Now, lets quickly compare the Bengals of 2004 and the Chargers of 2006. Of the two teams, which do you think has/had the stronger:Talented runningbacks

Talented widereceivers

Talented offensive Line

Talented tightends

Total passing offense

Total rushing offense

Overall offense

Defense to keep them the game honest

Overall team strength

My take is that SD has the better RBs, OL, TE, rushing offense, defense, overall offense, and overall team strength. So you have to ask yourself "Which of these teams is in a better position for their rookie QBs to produce starting week 1?" While I couldnt find any actual week 1 rankings for FBGs back in 2004 (I looked), I would imagine Palmer was ranked about the same as Rivers is this week. While I am not saying Rivers is the next Palmer, I am saying that I believe there is history to show us how to better project Rivers in week 1 of this season, as well as over the course of the season. Why is he projected so low? Is it due to the fact he is a rookie starting QB? IMO Philip Rivers isnt simply a 1st year starting QB. Rivers is in a not so unique situation just like Palmer was 2 years ago. Rivers will be the starting QB for a football team which consists of arguably the best RB in the game, the best TE in the game, and a serviceable passing offense.

Most of you will already have had your drafts so it might not matter if you dont have him. If he's on waivers for some reason, you should pick him up. Ive seen Rivers go as low as 13 (where I would not let him slip any farther) as an example. If you have him on your roster and you are considering starting, look at the numbers above compared to your projections for your other options at QB.

Good luck this week,

 

[Urinal Mint]

 

[Mimo]

I think Rivers is going to surprise alot of people this year. The reason he is ranked and taken in drafts so low is because of the unknown. I also compare his situation to Palmer's. I really think Rivers will be top 10-12. I would go even further and compare him to the McNair situation when McNair was drafted by Houston/Tennessee. McNair sat for a year and he has turned out pretty good. JMO

 

[Cixelsyd]

That is alot of love for Rivers. But comparing Rivers to Palmer? I don't think so. Did Rivers play for USC? Win a National Championship? Is he throwing to Chad Johnson? Hous???

I wouldn't expect big numbers from Rivers this year... thats great you are rooting for him, but you don't draft with your heart... He was drafted in only one league I'm in and thats cause it's a salary cap league and he's dirt cheap to fill a mandatory roster spot.

And if you are going to give a history lesson, you probally should actually have info from footballguys.... rather than some dudes write up on Palmers game... and you probally should look at more data than Palmer...

 

[JAA]

And if you are going to give a history lesson, you probally should actually have info from footballguys.... rather than some dudes write up on Palmers game... and you probally should look at more data than Palmer...

Hi Cixelsyd,You are aware that the write up from "some dude" was an official footballguys recap email right?Have a great season guy,JAA

 

[The Man With No Name]

And Brees was not 'let go' after Rivers rookie season. This will be his 3rd year.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I've been pretty high on Rivers. He's been between QB8 and 13 in my projections the whole preseason. He ended up 10th going into my last and most important draft (auction), and I got him for one dollar. So, I am happy with that, but he is hard to project. The day of the opener I am compelled to drop him significantly and for a strange reason.

Brees has limited talent. The thing that made him a top 10 QB was his head. He is very smart, hardworking, a great leader who willed himself to solid numbers. Mentally Brees reminds me of Steve Young. Both are very professional, very sharp, the kind of leaders entire teams look up to and willingly follow.

One of the positives for Rivers in the SD QB ordeal has been the notion that he was mentored by Brees. Several reports, even Maurile's here, have suggested Rivers is cut from the same "leadership cloth" as Brees. If so this is big news because Rivers has more talent. I've heard a few interviews and thought Rivers did a good Brees impersonation. The team seemed to embrace him as a natural leader too. This looked and felt like all systems go-- a top 10 QB under the radar.

But the last two times I watched him and listened to him, he didn't show any of that. On and off the field he seems lost, nervous, a classic deer in the headlights. I think he started to unravel mentally against Chicago when Urlacher took him the other way for six. He ended up completing a nice percentage, but he was disturbingly locked in on one receiver every play, and he had no luck intermediate or deep. He wasn't what I had expected. Then the Seattle game. Three fumbles, giving up another TD, sloppy, lost, ugly. This kid ain't no Brees. So, rather than two years on the bench him setting him on the right path for early success, he appears to be like any raw rookie who isn't ready for the bright lights and live bullets.

The interview after the Seattle game had a very strange feel to it. He feigns confidence but you can see the duck paddling furiously while trying to remain calm. Then he was interviewed again, briefly fielding questions about Foley and other stuff, and he seems scared to death to me. Literally bouncing around, the camera barely keeping him in the frame, his hands talk more than his mouth, he doesn't complete sentences, he jokes when he shouldn't, he's trying to lighten things up, and that's clearly because he is feeling tons of pressure. Panic is setting in. He needs his mommy.

 

[Da Guru]

I am having a hard time judging Rivers. From watching him I am not too impressed so far. The guy has all the tools to be a star..but so have many others.

 

[Buckychudd]

Rivers might be good, he might not be. When you can get a sure thing like Jake Plummer in the 9th round....why even take the chance on Rivers?

 

[Significant Shrinkage]

Rivers might be good, he might not be. When you can get a sure thing like Jake Plummer in the 9th round....why even take the chance on Rivers?

This may qualify as an oxymoron. While I agree that Plummer represents good value there I'd stop short of calling him (or anyone in the 9th round for that matter) a "sure thing". Just my .02

 

[Cixelsyd]

And if you are going to give a history lesson, you probally should actually have info from footballguys.... rather than some dudes write up on Palmers game... and you probally should look at more data than Palmer...

Hi Cixelsyd,You are aware that the write up from "some dude" was an official footballguys recap email right?Have a great season guy,JAA

Hi JAA,Thanks for the well wishes this season... I hope you do well also... Yes, I am very aware of the football guys recap... which is exactly what it is, a recap of a game, not a projection from the site... I said some guy, because I'm not sure who wrote it... they employ guys that post on the site (if I'm not mistaken) to write some of them.... Basically, you used a recap of Palmers first game as a history lesson from footballguys... but it was just a recap of what was seen... not Dobbs saying that Palmer shouldn't be drafted before the season... or that he was the 40th ranked QB...And I just think Palmer is a bad comparison... use him to figure Matt out... not Rivers... you need to look for something closer, past QB's from North Carolina State... QB's from the same system... siimilar stye QB's...My biggest issue was the title... Footballguys.com had nothing to do with your post... But I think the biggest issue is the lack of WR talent in SD. Gates is a good valve, but he wasn't used by Rivers much in the preseason... McCardell and Parker aren't my choice for the best WR to help a young QB along... though McCardell is underrated... Palmer had Chad Johnson, Warrick and Housh...I do think he has the skills to step up... he's played great in bowl games, but year one as starter is always tough... and with a QB you need consitancy... and rookie QB's could get 3 tds one week and 0 the next... and the next... oh and then 1... hehe...Anyway... Good Luck again

 

[Dieselskid]

Rivers = Leaf

 

[gregjcross]

I Personally think that the CHARGERS should go to teh Super bowl but it will be based on....

A) the Defense: their pass rush and run stoppiong

b) their running game

c) competent passing game led by Gates, McAardell, Ladianian/Parker/VJAX

d) improving secondary

Rivers is good but i dont see them being as aggressive as Cinci/Palmer with the pass, they wont need to be either!

a

Ive been high on Rivers all this off-season. I do own him in a lot of leagues and this is simply due to the fact I value him more than most folks. So take this post with a grain of salt, but please do comment on my facts and figures using history as a lesson.

Rivers and Palmer IMO have a lot in common. The both were very productive in college. They both were drafted as franchise QBs. They both sat out their rookie season. Most importantly, both QBs were behind QBs that were let go after their rookie season so they could become the starter.

I received my "Footballguys Week 1 Preliminary Cheatsheets" email from FBGs today and was dumbfounded as to why they have Rivers projected as they do. Without going into the entire rankings comparatively, FBGs has Rivers ranked 22 outta 32 starting QBs for week 1. Also, FBG has Rivers projected as the 20th best QB this season.

How can I prove Rivers should be ranked higher? I will use Carson Palmer as an example. Here the FBG game recap I found in my Cheatsheets Outlook folder from Palmers first football game dated Mon 9/13/2004 6:49 PM:

Cincinnati Bengals 24 at New York Jets 31

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer's debut as the starting quarterback for the Bengal's was, for the most part, a success, but his lone interception late in the 4th quarter was a costly one. The turnover ultimately ended any chance for a Cincinnati comeback because time was not on their side. Palmer threw for 248 yards and 2 TDs in the game.

Cincinnati's rushing attack had problems throughout the entire game. In all fairness to RB Rudi Johnson (70 yards rushing, 1 TD, and 1 fumble), the offensive line was a mess. Starters Rich Braham (Center) and Willie Anderson (Tackle) both played, but were listed as questionable prior to kickoff with knee injuries. Eric Steinbach

(Guard) didn't start because of problems with the arm he had operated on in the off-season. Larry Moore (Center/Guard) started in his place. That is, until Braham had to leave the game for good in the first half. Moore then moved to center and Steinbach came off the bench to play guard. With rookie RB Chris Perry not playing due to injury, Kenny Watson (1 rush for 25 yards, and 2 receptions for 15 yards and 1 TD) made the most out of his brief playing time.

WR Chad Johnson led all Bengal receivers with 5 receptions for 99 yards and 1 TD. Peter Warrick, also nursing an injury since the off-season, had a good game, catching 5 passes for 76 yards. However, he did not score. T.J. Houshmandzadeh caught three of the four passes thrown his way. He also had a few quality returns on special teams. Reggie Kelly represented all Bengal TEs with 1 reception for 3 yards.

The Bengal defense could not stop Jets RB Curtis Martin. He punished Cincinnati's defense all the way until the end of the game before Coach Herman Edwards pulled him with less than a minute left. He could have gone over 200 yards rushing, but Edwards showed some mercy and class. As bad as the run defense was, the pass defense wasn't much better. Rookie CB Madieu Williams, starting the entire game for the injured, Deltha O'Neal, was schooled by several New York receivers in the first half. However, he came back strong in the second half.

The Bengal Special Teams played particularly well the entire game, and K Shayne Graham converted on his only FG attempt of 22 yards.

LB Brian Simmons did not play due to injury, and starting safety Rogers Beckett left the game in the first quarter with a concussion.

WHAT YOU OUGHT TO KNOW

Cincinnati Bengals

QB: Carson Palmer (18-27-248 passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int, 2-10 rushing). At times, Palmer looked fantastic, putting the ball right where it needed to be. However, on a couple of other plays, he dangerously under-threw, or threw behind his receivers. He could have very easily had 2-3 interceptions in the game, but Jets defenders couldn't hang on to the ball. Overall, Palmer had a pretty good game, despite one important interception. He also showed a lot of poise in his first NFL start. He made good decisions most of the game, and even had an impressive run for a first down. On the same play, he wisely stepped out of bounds before getting tattooed by a defender.

RB: Rudi Johnson (24-70 rushing, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost, 0-0 receiving on 2 targets). Johnson put up respectable fantasy numbers, but he got stuffed at the line of scrimmage too many times to count. Again, his offensive line is a mess right now, so his performance is hard to gauge. Also, the fumble he lost was actually a really good strip by the defense. Not only did Johnson have trouble running inside, he found no running room on the corner. He was the intended receiver on a couple of short passes up the middle, but he kept getting caught up in the cluster of offensive and defensive lineman. Johnson also had a nice 9-yard gain negated because of a holding call.

Kenny Watson (1-25 rushing, 0 TD, 2-15 receiving on 2 targets, 1 TD). Watson didn't touch the ball a lot, but he sure looked good when he did. His touchdown could have been reviewed, but the replay showed he crossed the plane of the goal line before the ball bounced off the turf.

WR: Chad Johnson (5-99 receiving on 8 targets, 1 TD). Johnson looked very fast, ran great routes, and caught just about everything thrown his way. He also made a great adjustment on a pass from Palmer for a 53-yard touchdown reception.

Peter Warrick (5-76 receiving on 7 targets, 0 TD, 1-8 rushing, 0 TD). Warrick spent most of training camp and the preseason rehabbing his knee. To do what he did against New York after missing so much practice time is pretty remarkable. He didn't find the end zone, but the knee looked pretty good. On his only rushing attempt, a semi-busted trick play, he reversed field and gained 8 yards. Warrick also prevented an interception when he knocked the ball from a defender's grasp.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3-38 receiving on 4 targets, 0 TD). Houshmandzadeh looked great when he was given a chance. However, he didn't get many opportunities. His kick return skills were very helpful in giving the Bengal's pretty good field position most of the game. Houshmandzadeh's all-around performance against the Jet's was very typical of the way he played in preseason games. The Bengal's can only hope that his chronically injured hamstring holds up all season.

Kelley Washington (1-9 receiving on 2 targets 0 TD). With three other talented receivers around, it's hard to get a share.

TE: Reggie Kelly (1-3 receiving on 1 target, 0 TD).

K: Shayne Graham (3 XP, 1-1 FG).

Pass Defense: Despite getting torched throughout the first half, CB Madieu Williams rebounded in the second half, making a nice play on a third and goal that prevented a Jets TD. New York settled for a FG on the next play. Williams also had a huge play on Jets WR, McCareins, that enabled Cincinnati one last shot at tying/winning the game. However, the Bengal's next series ended on Palmer's interception. Besides the Jets taking advantage of a rookie, none of New York's receivers had a "huge" day, individually. However, the Bengals did give up 224 passing yards and 2 TDs to Pennington.

Rush Defense: The Bengal's provided no rush defense whatsoever. Defenders were having a very difficult time shedding blocks, and there was virtually no pass rush applied to Pennington, who frequently had all the time he wanted before making his throws. The rush defense picked up where it left off in '03, when the unit gave up a huge day to Cleveland RB, Lee Suggs, in the final game of the season. DE Justin Smith's biggest contribution was taking a shot to Pennington's head after he clearly released a pass. His lack of judgment gave the Jets the ball at the Bengal 9-yard line. Three plays later, Curtis Martin ran in a screen pass for a TD.

This is the NFL Gamecenter Box Score link to that game. Now, lets quickly compare the Bengals of 2004 and the Chargers of 2006. Of the two teams, which do you think has/had the stronger:Talented runningbacks

Talented widereceivers

Talented offensive Line

Talented tightends

Total passing offense

Total rushing offense

Overall offense

Defense to keep them the game honest

Overall team strength

My take is that SD has the better RBs, OL, TE, rushing offense, defense, overall offense, and overall team strength. So you have to ask yourself "Which of these teams is in a better position for their rookie QBs to produce starting week 1?" While I couldnt find any actual week 1 rankings for FBGs back in 2004 (I looked), I would imagine Palmer was ranked about the same as Rivers is this week. While I am not saying Rivers is the next Palmer, I am saying that I believe there is history to show us how to better project Rivers in week 1 of this season, as well as over the course of the season. Why is he projected so low? Is it due to the fact he is a rookie starting QB? IMO Philip Rivers isnt simply a 1st year starting QB. Rivers is in a not so unique situation just like Palmer was 2 years ago. Rivers will be the starting QB for a football team which consists of arguably the best RB in the game, the best TE in the game, and a serviceable passing offense.

Most of you will already have had your drafts so it might not matter if you dont have him. If he's on waivers for some reason, you should pick him up. Ive seen Rivers go as low as 13 (where I would not let him slip any farther) as an example. If you have him on your roster and you are considering starting, look at the numbers above compared to your projections for your other options at QB.

Good luck this week,

 

[Joe Kidd]

Rivers is a great Qb to have this year IMO, for where he was being drafted, especially if you run a QBBC like myself. He has some great matchups this year. His points per game in those games will far better his ADP.

One poster said Rivers doesn't have a Chad Johnson or Housh, but he does have Antonio Gates and arguably the most talented rb in the NFL, to take pressure off the passing game.

 

[abhall]

What a genius post backed up with a lot of detailed examination and insight.

Rivers = Leaf

 

[HMH]

Rivers = Leaf

"Don't talk to me, alright!"

 

[BigRed]

That is alot of love for Rivers. But comparing Rivers to Palmer? I don't think so. Did Rivers play for USC? Win a National Championship?

How relevant.

Is he throwing to Chad Johnson? Hous???

Now that IS relevant.Also Palmer had a full season of experience before emerging; Rivers has almost none.

I wouldn't expect big numbers from Rivers this year...

IMO you'd have to be a fool to do so. He'll have his moments and put up maybe decent stats, but hoping for big things this year is a pipe dream.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Gates is a good valve, but he wasn't used by Rivers much in the preseason...

Neither was Tomlinson, but I don't think it's an omen.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I think we'll learn a lot about Rivers in the first game against Oakland. The Raiders are going to put eight men in the box and force Rivers to beat them. If Rivers doesn't put up good fantasy numbers in week one, the Chargers may lose the game.

 

[rascal]

Solid first post, except when you say the Chargers have talented WR's. Sorry but Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker are not what I would call talented or put in any category similar to Chad and Housh.

Rivers has the weapons...it's up to him to utilize them.

 

[Despyzer]

The Raiders are going to put eight men in the box

Warren Sapp was really happy the last time they tried that."You mean to tell me we still haven't figured out a way to put a man on #85?"

 

[Despyzer]

Without going into the entire rankings comparatively, FBGs has Rivers ranked 22 outta 32 starting QBs for week 1. How can I prove Rivers should be ranked higher?

I've got some great proof for you. He's playing the Raiders in week 1.

 

[Todem]

He is set up to succeed.

LT, Gates, and solid defense. He will not put up big fantasy numbers but I can see him doing a good job.

 

[GDogg]

And I just think Palmer is a bad comparison... use him to figure Matt out... not Rivers... you need to look for something closer, past QB's from North Carolina State... QB's from the same system... siimilar stye QB's...

Why would you compare him to past QB's from North Carolina St.? Rivers has nothing in common with those guys, other than the school they went to. Rivers DOES come from the same system as Carson Palmer (and Matt Leinart). Norm Chow was the QB coach/OC for all 3 of these guys and all 3 ran the same system.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I am having a hard time judging Rivers. From watching him I am not too impressed so far. The guy has all the tools to be a star..but so have many others.

The difference is that Rivers has star quality between his ears - most big time prospects who fail don't have the mental makeup to succeed. The mental part of the game is Rivers' strength.He'll win a Super Bowl within 3 years.

 

[reg]

I am having a hard time judging Rivers. From watching him I am not too impressed so far. The guy has all the tools to be a star..but so have many others.

The difference is that Rivers has star quality between his ears - most big time prospects who fail don't have the mental makeup to succeed. The mental part of the game is Rivers' strength.He'll win a Super Bowl within 3 years.

RIP Rivers. :(

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Rivers DOES come from the same system as Carson Palmer (and Matt Leinart). Norm Chow was the QB coach/OC for all 3 of these guys and all 3 ran the same system.

"I've made the statement that whichever team winds up with Philip Rivers is going to the Super Bowl," said Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who coached Rivers in his freshman season at North Carolina State. "That's a bold statement, I know, and I'm not saying it will happen right away. But he has that kind of ability and charisma."What's more, Chow says he was quietly lobbying to trade for Rivers last season, when it looked as if the Chargers might keep Drew Brees instead. The Titans wound up drafting Texas quarterback Vince Young, in doing so taking a pass on Matt Leinart, one of Chow's star pupils at USC.

"Selfishly," Chow said, "I was hoping we might get Philip."

Link.

 

[redman]

I am having a hard time judging Rivers. From watching him I am not too impressed so far. The guy has all the tools to be a star..but so have many others.

The difference is that Rivers has star quality between his ears - most big time prospects who fail don't have the mental makeup to succeed. The mental part of the game is Rivers' strength.He'll win a Super Bowl within 3 years.

RIP Rivers. :(

kizzofDeath right there.

 

[Keepers]

So are we talking fantasy or NFL football?

Fantasy wise don't like Rivers this year as those things which you listed as positives such as a better running game, better O line and better defense than what Cincy had, I view as negatives since SD will not have to play catch up and will try to run control the ball. As for comparing Rivers to Palmer, you could easily compare him to many other QBs who weren't as succesful in their 1st year of starting, and even then Palmer had 18 TDs and 18 INTs in 14 games, hardly numbers that are going to help you win a fantasy championship.

As for being an NFL QB this year, believe he will be okay and his INTs will be low as SD will rely on the run game and short passes to Gates, Rivers won't be asked to do too much for now.

 

[Tau837]

I think Rivers is a virtual lock to be a top 15 QB (total fantasy points), with a great chance at top 10. I posted my reasons in basically every Rivers thread throughout the offseason, and I'm not going to rehash all of it here in depth. For the most part, it is based on these reasons:

1. Great situation for any QB (running game, TE, veteran WRs, good defense, etc.). Brees's performance the past two years is perfect evidence of this.

2. Rivers has both the physical and mental ability/talent to be a great QB. And the maturity, leadership, etc.

3. Rivers was incredibly durable in college, starting an NCAA record 51 of a possible 51 games. Last season, every one of the top 14 fantasy QBs (FBG scoring) played in 15 or 16 regular season games. Conversely, only 3 QBs not in the top 14 played as many as 15: Frerotte, Carr, and Orton. Rivers is much better than those three and is in a much better situation than they were (factors 1 and 2 above). I believe his durability is an overlooked positive for him.