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A little dynasty TE discussion... (1 Viewer)

AngryPatriot

AngryPatriot

Footballguy
After a gangbuster start it seems TE production has cooled off for a variety of reasons. I'm curious to hear others thoughts on TE's looking to 2014 and beyond. Who do you think will emerge next year? Who will continue to be strong? Who 's the next Tony G or Gates as guys like these near the end?

Is Ertz going to be the guy in Philly? Or will Celek stay around? Similar situation in Cincy with Gresham and Eifert waiting his turn? Julius Thomas, Cameron: the next best? Clay? Can Tim Wright, L Green and Reed continue to ascend?

I realize this is a difficult proposition as some will quickly fade and others emerge but man, after this year (and the over all shift toward the TE) we'd better get ahead of things if possible. Discuss!

 
AngryPatriot said:
After a gangbuster start it seems TE production has cooled off for a variety of reasons. I'm curious to hear others thoughts on TE's looking to 2014 and beyond. Who do you think will emerge next year? Who will continue to be strong? Who 's the next Tony G or Gates as guys like these near the end?

Is Ertz going to be the guy in Philly? Or will Celek stay around? Similar situation in Cincy with Gresham and Eifert waiting his turn? Julius Thomas, Cameron: the next best? Clay? Can Tim Wright, L Green and Reed continue to ascend?

I realize this is a difficult proposition as some will quickly fade and others emerge but man, after this year (and the over all shift toward the TE) we'd better get ahead of things if possible. Discuss!
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Ertz will have a solid career, but I don't have a good grasp on whether the TE's role in Kelly's offense will be expansive enough for Ertz to separate himself from the gaggle of other low-end TE1s.

I like Clay's talent, but I think his upside is somewhat capped by a spread-the-wealth offense/QB and the larger role that I think Sims will eventually take on.

Might have to wait a bit on Eifert, but I think he's a potential stud. Same goes for Green, who I think might have an even higher upside than Eifert given his situation in SD. Both are definitely worth waiting on in dynasty leagues.

I think Kelce has a decent shot at being next year's Jordan Reed in terms of fantasy impact, assuming the lost year didn't set back his development too much.

The top of this year's rookie TE class looks pretty good. Definitely monitor the situations they are drafted into.

 
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I think possibly the most undervalued dynasty TE right now is Dwayne Allen. Easily could be a top-8 guy going forward IMO.

 
Isn't he on Indy? Fleener could be the guy there, no? One guy that looks good is Pitta, who seems like Flaccos best friend....

 
AngryPatriot said:
Isn't he on Indy? Fleener could be the guy there, no? One guy that looks good is Pitta, who seems like Flaccos best friend....
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Fleener has proven this year that he can't be "the guy". Allen has a much more well-rounded skill-set and will never leave the field once he's back, due to his blocking prowess and versatility.

 
How does Timothy Wright (Bucs) stack up against everyone else. He doesn't have the credentials of the others (undrafted) - but he had a very good day this past Sunday (7-82-1) . . .

 
Clay is the real deal. I think the Dolphins are going to spend some time this offseason realizing what they found this year and next year you will see him performing a lot more like Aaron Hernandez did up in New England. A divisional team always realizes what their frequent opponents hurt them with the most effectively so it will be an easy learning process.

Dwayne Allen in Indy. He was better than Fleener last year and all that happened this year with him being out was Fleener got the chance to take the entire role and show why he's not as good. The Colts will be vastly better off when Allen comes back. He is a far superior blocker and he can run and catch. The onle thing people talked about when they came in was that Fleener had this dynamic ability to get down field and stretch the seam and all that but I haven't seen it. He has flashes but his hands aren't good enough on a consistent basis to trust him him when you have that 3rd and 8, that 2nd and 15, etc. You can trust Allen and the Colts will be better off with him.

 
Chris Gragg, BUF.

Only caught 5 balls this year on 7 targets for 53 yards and a TD playing behind Chandler.

He's one of those 'large WRs playing TE' kind of guy.

Has struggled with dropsies in college, but his combine numbers were the best of the class.

Might take another year to get enough playing time but is definately somebody to watch.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
AngryPatriot said:
Isn't he on Indy? Fleener could be the guy there, no? One guy that looks good is Pitta, who seems like Flaccos best friend....
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Fleener has proven this year that he can't be "the guy". Allen has a much more well-rounded skill-set and will never leave the field once he's back, due to his blocking prowess and versatility.
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Fleener was my biggest swing and miss of the off-season. And I'm with you; he's not the guy. He still has potential, and if put in the right situation, could produce. But I don't expect that to happen in Indy, without major changes.

Allen is the own there, and - as you said and I agree with - a breakout candidate.

I'll be buying Ertz, too. The potential there is very appealing.

 
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eNdblu said:
Adam Harstad said:
mr roboto said:
Tim Wright looks small on paper. Does he play more like a slot WR?
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Yes. In fact, I wouldn't be totally shocked if the next coaching staff moved him to slot WR.
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Would that be a good thing or a bad thing?

My guess is that if he gets listed as a WR, his value plummets
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Very bad. A 50/600/6 season would be a pretty decent season from a TE, but it would be an absolutely atrocious season from a WR.

 
billrob said:
Chris Gragg, BUF.

Only caught 5 balls this year on 7 targets for 53 yards and a TD playing behind Chandler.

He's one of those 'large WRs playing TE' kind of guy.

Has struggled with dropsies in college, but his combine numbers were the best of the class.

Might take another year to get enough playing time but is definately somebody to watch.
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with the Moeaki signing his future seems a little more cloudy to me. One of those 2 could end up the guy there and plenty of potential on the outside to take away attention (in addition to a strong run game)
 
loose circuits said:
billrob said:
Chris Gragg, BUF.

Only caught 5 balls this year on 7 targets for 53 yards and a TD playing behind Chandler.

He's one of those 'large WRs playing TE' kind of guy.

Has struggled with dropsies in college, but his combine numbers were the best of the class.

Might take another year to get enough playing time but is definately somebody to watch.
Click to expand...
with the Moeaki signing his future seems a little more cloudy to me. One of those 2 could end up the guy there and plenty of potential on the outside to take away attention (in addition to a strong run game)
Click to expand...
I liked Moeaki a lot a year ago. Sitting on the street for several months in the middle of the season, as teams keep suffering injuries at the position, dampened my enthusiasm for him a great deal. Good players rarely find themselves unemployed for such an extended period of time unless there's something else going on.

 
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I had hopes for Vance McDonald, but I'm just not sure there will ever be enough production for him in SF.

 
I've been a big proponent I stashing multiple RAW athletic TEs who MAY have a shot to be something nice down the road... Last yr the flavors I liked were Adrien Robinson Taylor Thompson Brandon Bostick Joseph Fauria Darren Fells James Casey & David Ausberry... Obviously Free Agency and/or the draft severely dinged the value of most of these guys... NYG brought in Brandon Myers on a 1 yr deal who proved he is probably not the guy... TEN brought in Delanie Walker on a 4 yr deal so Thompson has still been producing as a blocking TE but that doesn't work for us in fantasy... Eagles drafted Ertz so Casey has been irrelevant... Ausberry was part of the Al Davis "we love fast guys" regime and has been places on injured reserve and Michael Rivera is emerging a bit there... Luke Willson was drafted in Seattle and Fells is prolly the rawest of all of these guys listed... Robinson is still intriguing to me but geez he can't get a hat on gamedays... Bostick is intriguing for next yr... Fauria has shown he can be a force in the RZ similar to gronk his rookie season... Can he grow into a larger role with Pettigrew realistically looking like he won't be around in Detroit next yr?

Very interesting topic to me... We all want that next Julius Thomas and I'm glad that I held him through his first 2 yrs of crap... More than likely all of these guys will amount to middling players at best but maybe just maybe a few of them can develop into more than that and if their game matches their physical profiles the look out

Fauria holds the most value and best chance to break out next yr from this list IMHO

 
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jsharlan said:
I had hopes for Vance McDonald, but I'm just not sure there will ever be enough production for him in SF.
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Vernon Davis is having a good year, as did Crabtree last year. McDonald is obviously a long term play, and IMO the total lack of immediacy (barring a Davis injury) does indeed detract from his value. But then again, you never know what SF's (or anyone else's) team makeup and philosophy is going to look like a few years down the road. If the defense slips a bit and Lattimore never comes all the way back they may need to unleash the passing game more moving forward.

 
GoodLloydHaveMercy said:
I've been a big proponent I stashing multiple RAW athletic TEs who MAY have a shot to be something nice down the road...

Very interesting topic to me... We all want that next Julius Thomas and I'm glad that I held him through his first 2 yrs of crap... More than likely all of these guys will amount to middling players at best but maybe just maybe a few of them can develop into more than that and if their game matches their physical profiles the look out
Click to expand...
Yep. When we're talking 3rd TE or deeper on your roster, it's all about the upside, even if it's a tiny chance at a homerun. I'd take an young upside flyer that's 99% likely to amount to nothing over proven mediocrity like a Brandon Myers or a Brent Celek every time for my last few roster spots.

 
Kelce is a nice stash.

1- Not much in front of him at TE.

2- Aside from Bowe, there is a great opportunity for targets.

3- Plays w/ a check down QB.

 
GoodLloydHaveMercy said:
TEN brought in Delanie Walker on a 4 yr deal so Thompson has still been producing as a blocking TE but that doesn't work for us in fantasy...
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I have to make a decision on Thompson this offseason. I really wanted him to take a big step forward this year, but it hasn't happened. I may be throwing him back to the pile, and drafting a rookie to fill that spot. I don't think Walker's going anywhere, and Wright and Hunter will be getting big slices of the passing game, so I'm not sure if Thompson can carve out a big enough role to be fantasy relevant.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
jsharlan said:
I had hopes for Vance McDonald, but I'm just not sure there will ever be enough production for him in SF.
Click to expand...
Vernon Davis is having a good year, as did Crabtree last year. McDonald is obviously a long term play, and IMO the total lack of immediacy (barring a Davis injury) does indeed detract from his value. But then again, you never know what SF's (or anyone else's) team makeup and philosophy is going to look like a few years down the road. If the defense slips a bit and Lattimore never comes all the way back they may need to unleash the passing game more moving forward.
Click to expand...
McDonald is a hold but he might be a long hold; VD only turns 30 this yr and has no signs of slowing down.

 
EastonBlues22 said:
AngryPatriot said:
After a gangbuster start it seems TE production has cooled off for a variety of reasons. I'm curious to hear others thoughts on TE's looking to 2014 and beyond. Who do you think will emerge next year? Who will continue to be strong? Who 's the next Tony G or Gates as guys like these near the end?

Is Ertz going to be the guy in Philly? Or will Celek stay around? Similar situation in Cincy with Gresham and Eifert waiting his turn? Julius Thomas, Cameron: the next best? Clay? Can Tim Wright, L Green and Reed continue to ascend?

I realize this is a difficult proposition as some will quickly fade and others emerge but man, after this year (and the over all shift toward the TE) we'd better get ahead of things if possible. Discuss!
Click to expand...
Ertz will have a solid career, but I don't have a good grasp on whether the TE's role in Kelly's offense will be expansive enough for Ertz to separate himself from the gaggle of other low-end TE1s.
Click to expand...
I thought Kelly's offense was very TE based? They took Ertz pretty high so there has to be high expectations

 
Dwayne Allen only runs a 4.8 and will never be much of a deep threat. He's also on the short side. Nice player, but there is a limit on what he can become. He almost certainly doesn't have a huge ceiling. And since you can get fringe TE1 production for pretty cheap (i.e. Greg Olsen), he's not a guy that I will be buying anywhere.

Clay could be a high receptions/high yards/low TD kind of guy. He's kind of short for a TE. 6'2" and change. He'll probably never be a great red zone/jump ball guy. He's more of a catch-and-run player. I think he'll continue to be solid, but will never ascend to the superstar level unless they just feed him targets. He doesn't have the big body of Witten/Gates/Graham/Gonzo/etc.

Eifert should be solid with the potential to be more than that. From the incoming rookie class, I think Eric Ebron looks like a pretty solid investment. He's got some minor issues, but the athleticism is there to become one of the better all-around receiving TEs in the game. Maybe not a mega star though. People compare him to Vernon Davis, but they're not that similar. I've said he's like a lesser version of what Kellen Winslow Jr. used to be.

I have Ausberry in almost every league I'm in. I think he was poised for a potential breakout this season. Then he got injured in the preseason and was eventually IR'd. Unless Oakland grabs a top TE in this draft, he should be the favorite to start there in 2014. Great player to grab off waivers. Probably the best value out there right now at TE since the cost to acquire him in your league might be zero.

I am fairly down on Kelce these days. Not because of the injury. Going back and looking at his college clips again, he's kind of a sloppy route runner/mover. Not a clean athlete. He's a rare height/weight/speed/explosiveness package though and there's some opportunity there in KC, so I still might grab him if he were dirt cheap (like a 4th round rookie pick). I would probably sell him if and when he had a big season.

 
KellysHeroes said:
EastonBlues22 said:
AngryPatriot said:
After a gangbuster start it seems TE production has cooled off for a variety of reasons. I'm curious to hear others thoughts on TE's looking to 2014 and beyond. Who do you think will emerge next year? Who will continue to be strong? Who 's the next Tony G or Gates as guys like these near the end?

Is Ertz going to be the guy in Philly? Or will Celek stay around? Similar situation in Cincy with Gresham and Eifert waiting his turn? Julius Thomas, Cameron: the next best? Clay? Can Tim Wright, L Green and Reed continue to ascend?

I realize this is a difficult proposition as some will quickly fade and others emerge but man, after this year (and the over all shift toward the TE) we'd better get ahead of things if possible. Discuss!
Click to expand...
Ertz will have a solid career, but I don't have a good grasp on whether the TE's role in Kelly's offense will be expansive enough for Ertz to separate himself from the gaggle of other low-end TE1s.
Click to expand...
I thought Kelly's offense was very TE based? They took Ertz pretty high so there has to be high expectations
Click to expand...
Ertz has 50 targets on the year and Celek has 41. Outside of the 9 spot that Ertz put up last week, neither has had more than 6 targets in any game this year. They have 18 games (out of 28 possible) of 3 targets or less between them.

 
Adam Harstad said:
loose circuits said:
billrob said:
Chris Gragg, BUF.

Only caught 5 balls this year on 7 targets for 53 yards and a TD playing behind Chandler.

He's one of those 'large WRs playing TE' kind of guy.

Has struggled with dropsies in college, but his combine numbers were the best of the class.

Might take another year to get enough playing time but is definately somebody to watch.
Click to expand...
with the Moeaki signing his future seems a little more cloudy to me. One of those 2 could end up the guy there and plenty of potential on the outside to take away attention (in addition to a strong run game)
Click to expand...
I liked Moeaki a lot a year ago. Sitting on the street for several months in the middle of the season, as teams keep suffering injuries at the position, dampened my enthusiasm for him a great deal. Good players rarely find themselves unemployed for such an extended period of time unless there's something else going on.
Click to expand...
you mean like injuries? That's moeaki's issues not physical ability. Chandler bounced around before landing in Buffalo too, so why not? Sounds like he will be active this weekend so we can see where he fits in
 
I added Fred Davis in a TE-heavy league, just hoping he can get a fresh start somewhere next year and keep his head on straight.

 
I think Pitta is the next up and coming TE to rise in the rankings next year. Something like J. Cameron did playing opposite Gordon for the Browns! Pitta outside Torrey Smith! :blush: Get it!?

 
Got Reed, Ertz, Escobar and Bostick at TE. Not sure if I should hold onto Bostick or not, any GB homers wanna chime in on that? He looked real good as strictly a receiving TE. Don't wanna waste a roster spot when I can pick someone else up at another position (no TEs in FA, there's a few LB/DE that I like though). Anyone seeing Bostick becoming the starter if Finley leaves?

 
Patsfan39 said:
Got Reed, Ertz, Escobar and Bostick at TE. Not sure if I should hold onto Bostick or not, any GB homers wanna chime in on that? He looked real good as strictly a receiving TE. Don't wanna waste a roster spot when I can pick someone else up at another position (no TEs in FA, there's a few LB/DE that I like though). Anyone seeing Bostick becoming the starter if Finley leaves?
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I'm holding. Loads of upside and opportunity
 
In a start 2TE auction league, you can keep as many and any player you want, but it costs more than you paid for them in the previous years auction.

I have Julius Thomas and Jimmy Graham -- It will only cost me 7% of my budget to keep Julius but Grahams gonna run me 25% of my budget.

Gotta keep Graham in addition to Julius right? Committing a third of my budget on TEs when pretty much no one else will be keeping one (Gronk would cost the owner about 25% also, but I doubt he will keep him) could bite me in the ###.

PPR, QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-TE-FLX

 
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I lost Hernandez and Finley this year.I'm rebuilding the position with Eifert (rookie pick 1.12 this year) and free agents L. Green, Luke Wilson and Vance McDonald.

 
Ryan Griffin has put up back-to-back decent games in Graham's absence, and I think both Graham and Owen Daniels are impending free agents. Might be some appeal here.

 
BeTheMatch said:
Ryan Griffin has put up back-to-back decent games in Graham's absence, and I think both Graham and Owen Daniels are impending free agents. Might be some appeal here.
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Was waiting to see his name. Kid moves well, has a big frame, and the Texans are high on him. With a new coaching staff, the offense could very well shift. But, they're also likely to be breaking in a new QB, and Griffin's going to have room to operate underneath as long as Andre and Hopkins are stretching the D on the outside.

Posted a 5-66 line yesterday after posting 6-62 the week before in his first career start. He's 6'6" 254 with a frame to add another 10, which would improve him as a blocker and make him a bigger mismatch. He's also got very soft hands, and seems to understand the nuances of the position from a receiving perspective.

Here's what Waldman had to say pre-draft: No Huddle Series - UCONN TE Ryan Griffin

Past Griffin, I'm high on Bostick as a swing-for-the-fences type, as well as Ausberry for reasons mentioned by EBF above. The concern for Ausberry, similar to Griffin, is that a new coaching staff and philosophy will be in place next year. That's not a concern for Bostick, and the coaches have been raving about his receiving ability for a while. He's my pick for the "Julius Thomas of 2014."

 
In a start 4 WR or TE league with 5 spots, sitting on:

Graham, J. Thomas, Olsen, Pitta, Ertz, L. Green, and Rivera.

Thinking hard about Ertz and L. Green who came on late this season and seem to have the most potential. I really like the McGloin to Rivera connection but hard to forecast Oakland right now.

Fauria, Cragg, and Escobar are out there but it's hard to envision Escobar becoming a player.

 
JFS171 said:
BeTheMatch said:
Ryan Griffin has put up back-to-back decent games in Graham's absence, and I think both Graham and Owen Daniels are impending free agents. Might be some appeal here.
Click to expand...
Was waiting to see his name. Kid moves well, has a big frame, and the Texans are high on him. With a new coaching staff, the offense could very well shift. But, they're also likely to be breaking in a new QB, and Griffin's going to have room to operate underneath as long as Andre and Hopkins are stretching the D on the outside.

Posted a 5-66 line yesterday after posting 6-62 the week before in his first career start. He's 6'6" 254 with a frame to add another 10, which would improve him as a blocker and make him a bigger mismatch. He's also got very soft hands, and seems to understand the nuances of the position from a receiving perspective.

Here's what Waldman had to say pre-draft: No Huddle Series - UCONN TE Ryan Griffin

Past Griffin, I'm high on Bostick as a swing-for-the-fences type, as well as Ausberry for reasons mentioned by EBF above. The concern for Ausberry, similar to Griffin, is that a new coaching staff and philosophy will be in place next year. That's not a concern for Bostick, and the coaches have been raving about his receiving ability for a while. He's my pick for the "Julius Thomas of 2014."
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I'm concerned that GB picks one of the top 3 TEs in the upcoming draft.

 
loose circuits said:
Adam Harstad said:
loose circuits said:
billrob said:
Chris Gragg, BUF.

Only caught 5 balls this year on 7 targets for 53 yards and a TD playing behind Chandler.

He's one of those 'large WRs playing TE' kind of guy.

Has struggled with dropsies in college, but his combine numbers were the best of the class.

Might take another year to get enough playing time but is definately somebody to watch.
Click to expand...
with the Moeaki signing his future seems a little more cloudy to me. One of those 2 could end up the guy there and plenty of potential on the outside to take away attention (in addition to a strong run game)
Click to expand...
I liked Moeaki a lot a year ago. Sitting on the street for several months in the middle of the season, as teams keep suffering injuries at the position, dampened my enthusiasm for him a great deal. Good players rarely find themselves unemployed for such an extended period of time unless there's something else going on.
Click to expand...
you mean like injuries? That's moeaki's issues not physical ability. Chandler bounced around before landing in Buffalo too, so why not? Sounds like he will be active this weekend so we can see where he fits in
Click to expand...
The NFL takes chances on guys with injury histories, so the fact that no one took a chance on Moeaki tells me they either think his risk is too great, or his reward is too low. Either way, there are other names I'd rather burn a roster spot on.

I really liked him a year ago. I hope he proves me wrong.

 
BWill said:
I think Pitta is the next up and coming TE to rise in the rankings next year. Something like J. Cameron did playing opposite Gordon for the Browns! Pitta outside Torrey Smith! :blush: Get it!?
Click to expand...
Next year, Dennis Pitta will be as old as Vernon Davis is this year. In order for Pitta to rank as highly as Vernon Davis does now, he'd have to show as well as Vernon Davis has been now and through his career. Since I think the only TEs in the league today better than Vernon Davis are Gronk and Graham, I have a hard time seeing Dennis Pitta even being as valuable as Vernon Davis in the TE rankings next year, which puts a cap on how far he can rise.

I'd rather have the younger upside plays like Eifert, Ladarius, Ertz, or the incoming rookies, although Pitta could still serve as a good bridge player for a contender with a hole at the position.

 
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