A little dynasty TE discussion... (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

Kyle Rudolph is in a contract year. So if AC Leonard makes the team (quite possible) that will give the Vikings another pass catching option and as many of us know Norv tends to feature the TE in the passing game more than most coaches.

It gives the Vikings better leverage in negotiating a new deal with Rudolph if Leonard turns out to be a good fit with the offense.

The Vikings also have Chase Ford who was their 3rd string TE last season moving up now that Carlson is gone. He has good size and can be used as a in line TE (Leonard is not much of a blocker). They also have Rhett Ellison who is a H Back/Full Back/TE used primarily as a blocker.

So the Vikings do have the depth that they could let Rudolph go, Ford and Ellison would step up to cover blocking assignments and Leonard would move up to the primary receiving TE.

Now I expect Rudolph will be re-signed at some point and he may be in for a big year. It is possible Leonard could work his way into sub packages this season but these are the guys who are ahead of him.

Leonard has character issues which is the main reason he went undrafted. I have him as the 4th best receiving TE of this draft class after Ebron, Amaro, ASJ. I definitely think he is worth rostering to see what ends up happening with Rudolph going forward.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Ebron being 21 instead of 24 means we should expect more value on the back end, but that consideration is so far in the future that it winds up being a negligible portion of his overall value for me.

Disagree with this. Longevity is probably the centerpiece of my entire FF strategy. If you're consistently buying players who will have longer careers (on average) you're always operating from a position of depth, have more ammo for trades, and aren't usually looking to fill in holes out of need.

Relatedly: Charles Clay is criminally undervalued. After the big four the only other players I have in front of him are Eifert and Ebron.

I agree in general with the first point, but again, there's some time-value at work. We're probably 4 years away from Eifert's age having any impact at all on his market value (possibly longer: see Pitta), and 6 years away from Eifert's age having any impact on his production. Those impacts will be real, and will have associated values, but those values are very small in the overall scheme of things that make up Eifert's value. The biggest piece, of course, is whether or not Eifert even hits in the first place. I'm much more concerned about whether or not Eifert becomes a star than I am with what happens to him six years from now if he does.

I will agree that if we had perfect information, the difference between a 21-year-old and a 24-year-old should be pretty substantial, but in the absence of perfect information, that difference gets largely eroded by the sheer volume of noise and uncertainty. As a heuristic, rather than valuing each age as a distinct data point on a scale, I group players into larger "age buckets" (pre-prime, early prime, late prime, past prime). Given the information I have available to me, I'm not entirely convinced that adding additional detail will improve accuracy, or whether it will just improve my own confidence in accuracy.

Also, I agree with you on Clay. I'm highest among staffers on him, putting him at 8th behind Gronk, Graham, Cameron, Reed, Thomas, Eifert, and Ebron.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Giants TE Adrien Robinson admitted to weighing 285 pounds last season.
Dedication to his craft has been an issue since the Giants took a fourth-round stab on size-speed freak Robinson in the 2012 draft. But now that he's penciled in as the starting tight end, he says he's focused. Robinson is currently back down to 270 pounds, aiming to play at 265 this season, and understands the depth chart. "They laid a huge opportunity in front of me. I just have to go take it, make the most of it," he said. Robinson projects as the No. 4 option in the passing game behind Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham.

Source: NJ.com

 

[Phenix]

Amaro will be the best rookie TE.

Book it.

 

[AngryPatriot]

Will do. Anyone know Jermaine Greshams contract status? This could be a make or break year for Eifert but JG is in the way! lol. He's pretty good too.

 

[bengalbuck]

Will do. Anyone know Jermaine Greshams contract status? This could be a make or break year for Eifert but JG is in the way! lol. He's pretty good too.

He's in the final year of his deal.

Bengals are in pretty good cap shape and will probably try to keep him next offseason if he doesn't end up being too expensive. They like his blocking and they like running 2 TE sets.

 

[Biabreakable]

CYE For Jordan ReedDan Schneier | May 21, 2014 https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/21/cye-for-jordan-reed/
As a way to pay homage to the man who made the title of this piece something that would ever come to my mind, I will start with a quote from Larry David himself on HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm: “When I called you I told that he asked me to recommend him so I’m “recommending” him. I put quotes around it…I thought you would pick up that it was a non-recommend recommend!”

Recently I read a tweet from one of the best fantasy minds in the business advising to think big when it came to Jordan Reed in 2014—as in top three or four tight end big. In fantasy football, several factors play a role in each player’s outlook, so it makes sense that there will be varying opinions and that’s the beauty of it. With Reed, I see a bleaker and more black and white outlook. I have no reason to be ambiguous about it, so I won’t even try to “non-recommend recommend” drafting Reed.

I will instead break down the several reasons why I think his perceived value is heavily inflated.

Role Within The Offensive System

Reed’s rookie season in the Mike and Kyle Shanahan offense didn’t really get kick-started until Week 6 when the team came out of its bye week. Starting in Week 6, Reed played over 50 percent of the team’s snaps for the first time and it continued over the next five games before his season-ending concussion. The increase in playing time could have been due to the team’s lackluster personnel at tight end or in the slot, or a coach’s realization that Reed needed to see the field. Either way, he parlayed his increased snaps to 28/335/2 line. Those are certainly solid numbers, especially at the shallow tight end position, but nothing to go crazy about.

Shanahan’s system is in the past, and Reed will have a new role in Jay Gruden’s offense. Gruden’s past success with using his outside receivers as a focal point of the offense is bad news for Reed’s outlook. In 2013, A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Mohammed Sanu combined for 322 targets, while Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert combined for only 119. All three of the wide receivers spent an overwhelming majority of their snaps as an outside receiver.

For this equation, we can all but eliminate Gresham’s role in Gruden’s past offenses. Reed does not have the size or strength to handle inline tight end duties, and that role seems likely to be filled by Logan Paulsen instead.

Instead, let’s look at how Tyler Eifert fared in his rookie season under Gruden. Although Eifert brings more of a vertical skill-set compared to Reed’s horizontal skill-set, both players are used in a similar “move tight end” role. Eifert played 681 snaps compared to the 1,166 combined snaps played by Gresham and Alex Smith. Eifert was on the field for 355 pass plays compared to 497 from Gresham and 577 from Gresham and Smith combined.

Eifert still managed to play over 50 percent of his team’s snaps in every game aside from Week 16, but Gruden didn’t have the weapons at wide receiver that he has now. Some of Eifert’s snap count percentage came in two and three tight end sets. The team just signed wide receiver Andre Roberts to a multi-year contract, and it’s doubtful they let him rot on the bench. He has no place on the outside with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson on the team, so he is likely to be an impediment to Reed’s snaps in the slot. Last season, Reed ran more than one-third (80 out of 228) of his pass routes out of the slot.

Injury History

Reed carries with him a long line of injuries that should not be overlooked. A serious concussion caused Reed to miss the final six games last season. Concussions carry a major red flag of their own, as teams are much more likely to hold out a player for an extended period of time if he has a history with them. Reed also missed an earlier game against the Raiders in Week 4 with a quad contusion. Before that, he missed time in OTA’s with knee and quad injuries and in training camp with a mid-foot sprain. This brief injury recap only includes ailments from his professional career, but his injury history dates back to his college days with the Florida Gators as well.

Targets

Aside from competing with the team’s stable of talented wide receivers for snaps, Reed will also be competing with them for targets. As I alluded to above, Gruden’s offenses have featured heavy doses of plays designed for the outside wide receivers. If Reed were to win out the battle for snaps, he would still be no safe bet to see targets. When Reed is on the field, Robert Griffin will have the option of throwing to Garcon, Jackson, and on some snaps Roberts as well. It would be difficult to argue against Reed being Griffin’s No. 3 option at best in the passing game.

BlockingReed will need to prove that he is a capable blocker if he wants to play in 11 personnel—three wide receiver sets with one tight end. Last season, he was only asked to pass block on 19 total plays, and this accounted for less than 8 percent of his total passing plays. In those 19 plays, he gave up one pressure—prorated over the course of a season, one pressure yielded for every 19 plays as a pass blocker, would render him nothing more than a middling pass blocker.

TalentOften times, when a rookie is compared to an NFL player, it sticks for too long in fantasy football comunnities. Reed was compared to former tight end Aaron Hernandez, and while he offers similar traits when it comes to lateral agility and movement skills, he offers very little elsewhere. Reed ran a 4.72 forty-yard-dash at the NFL Combine, a slower time than several move tight ends including the above-mentioned Eifert. His lack of deep speed shows up on the field, as he was targeted on just two passes of 20 yards or more and caught just one for 38 yards. At just 6-foot-2 with 33 inch arms, Reed offers a limited catch radius that makes him less of a threat inside the red zone.

ConclusionReed certainly has the open field skills, lateral agility, and lateral explosion that make him a unique talent. In the right offense and situation, he could be a PPR machine while also providing value as some team’s default red zone option. However, this is not the situation or offense that is best suited to bring out his maximum fantasy success. You can add a vertical seam-stretcher like Ladarius Green, who offers plus athleticism and past production, for a fraction of the price. I am avoiding Reed in all drafts.

 

[FUBAR]

Bia , interesting read and in redrafts it may work but in dynasty it seems Green actually costs more than Reed

 

[Biabreakable]

I think several of the TE who broke out or showed signs of it last season are risks of being over valued. That is just the nature of how things work at the TE position where performance is not as steady from year to year. Look at Vernon Davis's career for example. It seems to take a confluence of talent/situation and other events (like injury to another position leading to more TE targets or trading away their top RB causing the Browns to throw 70% of the time) to all coincide to make up those top seasons. Not many TE can repeat that year to year.

 

[karmarooster]

The article above is kind of silly in some ways:

(1) 28/335/2 "is nothing to go crazy about".... over 5 weeks. Over 16 games that pace works out to 90 rec/1,072 yards/6.4 TDs.... for a rookie TE. I'd say that would most certainly be something to go crazy about. For comparison, Eifert put up 39/442/2 in 15 games. So, I'm not really sure what the point is. If you wanna call it a small sample size, you'd be correct, but it's impressive.

(2) The comp of AJ Green/Jones/Sanu vs. Garcon/DeSean/Roberts is relatively on point, but no one on Washington is as good as AJG. I do appreciate that there will be plenty of mouths to feed, and Reed is just one option among several good options. But if the TEs combined for 112 targets in Cinci... I just don't think Logan freaking Paulsen is going to take as many snaps/targets away from Reed as Greshem did from Eifert.

(3) Injury risk, ok we already know this. I don't think it's a major factor, we're not talking about DMC or Amendola.

(4) If Reed can simply be a middling/average blocker he should be fine.

(5) I don't think Ladarius Green is a "fraction" of the price, in fact the two seem to be pretty equal in the Reed/Green/Ertz range which follows the Thomas/Cameron range. And, Green's "past production", through 2 years, totals just 21/432/3. In two years. Reed came close to matching that in 5 games... I'm a Green fan, but "past production" is not a reason to value him more than Reed. There certainly are reasons to favor Green (deep speed, fewer competing targets, more experience, bigger size, etc.) but production is not one of them.

In summary, pointing out some of the comps between Cinci and Washington is interesting, but to say "Reed is overvalued, just take Green at a fraction of the price because he has really produced!" is not a really strong argument.

 

[Tau837]

Last year, Washington's TEs had 128 combined targets, compared to 383 for the WRs.

In the offseason, Washington got a new coach with a track record of favoring WRs over TEs in the passing game and significantly upgraded its WRs. Santana Moss was their #2 WR in targets last year, with 77 targets. Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson were next, with 46 targets apiece. Enter Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts.

Combine those issues with Reed's concussion history, and IMO Reed is overrated. FBG staffers currently have him as their consensus #5 dynasty TE.

There is no question I'd rather have Ladarius Green.

 

[cstu]

Last year, Washington's TEs had 128 combined targets, compared to 383 for the WRs.

In the offseason, Washington got a new coach with a track record of favoring WRs over TEs in the passing game and significantly upgraded its WRs. Santana Moss was their #2 WR in targets last year, with 77 targets. Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson were next, with 46 targets apiece. Enter Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts.

Combine those issues with Reed's concussion history, and IMO Reed is overrated. FBG staffers currently have him as their consensus #5 dynasty TE.

There is no question I'd rather have Ladarius Green.

The Redskins WR's last year outside of Garcon were awful. There should be concern that a massive upgrade at WR with DJax and Roberts will impact his numbers, part of which were a result of no other receiving option besides Garcon.

There are a lot of young TE's (Green, Rudolph, Eifert, Ertz, Ebron) but none of them have put up top 5 numbers like Reed did. He's considered the 'safe' option because of that but I think he gets passed by several of the TE's I mentioned.

 

[karmarooster]

Last year, Washington's TEs had 128 combined targets, compared to 383 for the WRs.

In the offseason, Washington got a new coach with a track record of favoring WRs over TEs in the passing game and significantly upgraded its WRs. Santana Moss was their #2 WR in targets last year, with 77 targets. Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson were next, with 46 targets apiece. Enter Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts.

Combine those issues with Reed's concussion history, and IMO Reed is overrated. FBG staffers currently have him as their consensus #5 dynasty TE.

There is no question I'd rather have Ladarius Green.

They also promoted the TE coach to OC, which is counter to the HC point. There could be more targets total, as well. But I can appreciate the point that Reed's PPG numbers last year may have been inflated due to them having only Garcon and no one else to target.

 

[Tau837]

Last year, Washington's TEs had 128 combined targets, compared to 383 for the WRs.

In the offseason, Washington got a new coach with a track record of favoring WRs over TEs in the passing game and significantly upgraded its WRs. Santana Moss was their #2 WR in targets last year, with 77 targets. Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson were next, with 46 targets apiece. Enter Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts.

Combine those issues with Reed's concussion history, and IMO Reed is overrated. FBG staffers currently have him as their consensus #5 dynasty TE.

There is no question I'd rather have Ladarius Green.

They also promoted the TE coach to OC, which is counter to the HC point. There could be more targets total, as well. But I can appreciate the point that Reed's PPG numbers last year may have been inflated due to them having only Garcon and no one else to target.

I think it is unlikely there will be more targets. Washington was #9 in pass attempts, but they were #5 in dropbacks and close to all teams above them other than Cleveland:

751 Cleveland

710 Atlanta

699 New Orleans

696 Denver

692 Washington

RGIII's running essentially caps their pass attempts at a certain level. IMO it is more likely their pass attempts will go down than go up.

 

[Slider]

Desean will pull the S and open up Reed more imo not to mention he disappears in games too. I think RGIII takes the bailout a lot too and that would also do well for Reed. Top 5 seems about right.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

 

[EBF]

He is basically a slot WR with TE eligibility. Not that that's a bad thing for FF purposes, but from that perspective his rookie year was less amazing.

 

[Adam Harstad]

He is basically a slot WR with TE eligibility. Not that that's a bad thing for FF purposes, but from that perspective his rookie year was less amazing.

Before his final concussion, he was on pace for 88/974/6, which would still be pretty flipping amazing for a sub-package rookie WR. And that assumes that he wouldn't have finished the season any stronger than he started it. He had more yards per snap played and yards per route run than anyone except for Gronk and Graham, and Graham only barely edged him, despite also being basically a slot WR with TE eligibility (and a 1st ballot HoF QB). The only WRs with a higher yards per route run were Julio, Calvin, Gordon, Blackmon, Boldin, Desean, Brown, Alshon, Andre, Green, and VJax. That's not a shabby list- I see a lot of All Pros on it. Fellow rookie Keenan Allen wasn't on it, despite his extremely impressive season.

Another point: here's Washington's receiving corps, along with their height.

Garcon (5'11")

DJax (5'9")

Roberts (5'11")

Hankerson (6'1")

Robinson (5'10")

Grant (6'0")

Moss (5'9")

Reed (6'3")

Who do you bet will be the go-to in the red zone next year?

 

[EBF]

I don't recall Reed being a great jump ball guy in college. He's more of a catch-and-run type. I don't think Washington has anyone to run a good red zone fade.

No doubt Reed had an impressive rookie season. He's a niche player whose role is perfectly suited to make him valuable in FF.

In terms of how he compares to historical TEs, I think it's deceptive because in my book he's not really a TE. He's an H-back/slot WR hybrid whose single purpose on the field is to get open, catch the ball, and run after the catch. Even though he plays a different position and is a lot taller, in some ways he's more similar to guys like Sproles and Welker than he is to guys like Gronk and Graham. He's way too small to block anyone, mainly because he's so short. Gonzalez, Graham, and Witten all have the size and strength needed to do that if required. Guys like Reed and Hernandez seem to represent a new breed of player. Nominally, they play the TE position. For all intents and purposes though, they're playing as a receiving outlet. Reed even more so than the others.

It's a nice thing to exploit in FF. In terms of how those guys compare to the 6'4"+ traditional TEs with in-line ability, I think it's hard to draw parallels. They're almost playing a different position entirely since their receiving ability is such an overwhelming part of the reason why they're on the field.

 

[Xue]

He is basically a slot WR with TE eligibility. Not that that's a bad thing for FF purposes, but from that perspective his rookie year was less amazing.

Before his final concussion, he was on pace for 88/974/6, which would still be pretty flipping amazing for a sub-package rookie WR. And that assumes that he wouldn't have finished the season any stronger than he started it. He had more yards per snap played and yards per route run than anyone except for Gronk and Graham, and Graham only barely edged him, despite also being basically a slot WR with TE eligibility (and a 1st ballot HoF QB). The only WRs with a higher yards per route run were Julio, Calvin, Gordon, Blackmon, Boldin, Desean, Brown, Alshon, Andre, Green, and VJax. That's not a shabby list- I see a lot of All Pros on it. Fellow rookie Keenan Allen wasn't on it, despite his extremely impressive season.

Another point: here's Washington's receiving corps, along with their height.

Garcon (5'11")

DJax (5'9")

Roberts (5'11")

Hankerson (6'1")

Robinson (5'10")

Grant (6'0")

Moss (5'9")

Reed (6'3")

Who do you bet will be the go-to in the red zone next year?

Hoffman (6'4").

 

[FUBAR]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

 

[identikit]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

As a TE, nope.

 

[Concept Coop]

No doubt Reed had an impressive rookie season. He's a niche player whose role is perfectly suited to make him valuable in FF.

You say that a lot. Eifert didn't block well at all last year. Niche player?

 

[Concept Coop]

CYE For Jordan ReedDan Schneier | May 21, 2014 https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/21/cye-for-jordan-reed/
As a way to pay homage to the man who made the title of this piece something that would ever come to my mind, I will start with a quote from Larry David himself on HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm: “When I called you I told that he asked me to recommend him so I’m “recommending” him. I put quotes around it…I thought you would pick up that it was a non-recommend recommend!”

Recently I read a tweet from one of the best fantasy minds in the business advising to think big when it came to Jordan Reed in 2014—as in top three or four tight end big. In fantasy football, several factors play a role in each player’s outlook, so it makes sense that there will be varying opinions and that’s the beauty of it. With Reed, I see a bleaker and more black and white outlook. I have no reason to be ambiguous about it, so I won’t even try to “non-recommend recommend” drafting Reed.

I will instead break down the several reasons why I think his perceived value is heavily inflated.

Role Within The Offensive System

Reed’s rookie season in the Mike and Kyle Shanahan offense didn’t really get kick-started until Week 6 when the team came out of its bye week. Starting in Week 6, Reed played over 50 percent of the team’s snaps for the first time and it continued over the next five games before his season-ending concussion. The increase in playing time could have been due to the team’s lackluster personnel at tight end or in the slot, or a coach’s realization that Reed needed to see the field. Either way, he parlayed his increased snaps to 28/335/2 line. Those are certainly solid numbers, especially at the shallow tight end position, but nothing to go crazy about.

Shanahan’s system is in the past, and Reed will have a new role in Jay Gruden’s offense. Gruden’s past success with using his outside receivers as a focal point of the offense is bad news for Reed’s outlook. In 2013, A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Mohammed Sanu combined for 322 targets, while Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert combined for only 119. All three of the wide receivers spent an overwhelming majority of their snaps as an outside receiver.

For this equation, we can all but eliminate Gresham’s role in Gruden’s past offenses. Reed does not have the size or strength to handle inline tight end duties, and that role seems likely to be filled by Logan Paulsen instead.

Instead, let’s look at how Tyler Eifert fared in his rookie season under Gruden. Although Eifert brings more of a vertical skill-set compared to Reed’s horizontal skill-set, both players are used in a similar “move tight end” role. Eifert played 681 snaps compared to the 1,166 combined snaps played by Gresham and Alex Smith. Eifert was on the field for 355 pass plays compared to 497 from Gresham and 577 from Gresham and Smith combined.

Eifert still managed to play over 50 percent of his team’s snaps in every game aside from Week 16, but Gruden didn’t have the weapons at wide receiver that he has now. Some of Eifert’s snap count percentage came in two and three tight end sets. The team just signed wide receiver Andre Roberts to a multi-year contract, and it’s doubtful they let him rot on the bench. He has no place on the outside with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson on the team, so he is likely to be an impediment to Reed’s snaps in the slot. Last season, Reed ran more than one-third (80 out of 228) of his pass routes out of the slot.

Injury History

Aside from competing with the team’s stable of talented wide receivers for snaps, Reed will also be competing with them for targets. As I alluded to above, Gruden’s offenses have featured heavy doses of plays designed for the outside wide receivers. If Reed were to win out the battle for snaps, he would still be no safe bet to see targets. When Reed is on the field, Robert Griffin will have the option of throwing to Garcon, Jackson, and on some snaps Roberts as well. It would be difficult to argue against Reed being Griffin’s No. 3 option at best in the passing game.

BlockingReed will need to prove that he is a capable blocker if he wants to play in 11 personnel—three wide receiver sets with one tight end. Last season, he was only asked to pass block on 19 total plays, and this accounted for less than 8 percent of his total passing plays. In those 19 plays, he gave up one pressure—prorated over the course of a season, one pressure yielded for every 19 plays as a pass blocker, would render him nothing more than a middling pass blocker.

TalentOften times, when a rookie is compared to an NFL player, it sticks for too long in fantasy football comunnities. Reed was compared to former tight end Aaron Hernandez, and while he offers similar traits when it comes to lateral agility and movement skills, he offers very little elsewhere. Reed ran a 4.72 forty-yard-dash at the NFL Combine, a slower time than several move tight ends including the above-mentioned Eifert. His lack of deep speed shows up on the field, as he was targeted on just two passes of 20 yards or more and caught just one for 38 yards. At just 6-foot-2 with 33 inch arms, Reed offers a limited catch radius that makes him less of a threat inside the red zone.

ConclusionReed certainly has the open field skills, lateral agility, and lateral explosion that make him a unique talent. In the right offense and situation, he could be a PPR machine while also providing value as some team’s default red zone option. However, this is not the situation or offense that is best suited to bring out his maximum fantasy success. You can add a vertical seam-stretcher like Ladarius Green, who offers plus athleticism and past production, for a fraction of the price. I am avoiding Reed in all drafts.

Targets

This. Is. Awful.

 

[EBF]

I think Eifert was regarded as an average blocker at best as a prospect. He's 6'5.5" 250 pounds though. Rather have a guy like that trying to stop Clowney or Watt than Reed.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This. Is. Awful.

I agree with every word -- except moreso.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think Eifert was regarded as an average blocker at best as a prospect. He's 6'5.5" 250 pounds though. Rather have a guy like that trying to stop Clowney or Watt than Reed.

For FF, give me the guy who has no chance of even being asked to do that 9 times out of ten. Hard to catch the ball if you're in blocking, just ask Vernon Davis.

 

[EBF]

I think Eifert was regarded as an average blocker at best as a prospect. He's 6'5.5" 250 pounds though. Rather have a guy like that trying to stop Clowney or Watt than Reed.

For FF, give me the guy who has no chance of even being asked to do that 9 times out of ten. Hard to catch the ball if you're in blocking, just ask Vernon Davis.

I didn't say otherwise. I compared him to Sproles and Welker. Not sure how that was interpreted as a bad thing by somebody.

Fact is, he is a 6'2" 235 pound TE. Not a blocker by any means. Happens to occupy an ideal role for FF purposes though.

Like I said, basically a slot WR with TE eligibility. That is a nice proposition.

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree with every word -- except moreso.

Yeah--he's a player that we certainly disagree on and have going back to his college days. I just hope you don't agree with this:

"Those are certainly solid numbers, especially at the shallow tight end position, but nothing to go crazy about"

Because, as Adam showed above--yes: it is something to go crazy about.

Also, it's funny that it was Kyle's (OC) offense when he was there, yet, it's only Gruden's offensive philosophy that matters now. No mention that the new OC is the old TE coach who has praised the #### out of Reed? Agenda, maybe?

 

[Concept Coop]

I think Eifert was regarded as an average blocker at best as a prospect. He's 6'5.5" 250 pounds though. Rather have a guy like that trying to stop Clowney or Watt than Reed.

Eifert was awful last season. Neither of them are going to stop Clowney or Watt, or be asked to, even. Not that we should want our fantasy TEs to be asked to do that.

 

[FUBAR]

I think Eifert was regarded as an average blocker at best as a prospect. He's 6'5.5" 250 pounds though. Rather have a guy like that trying to stop Clowney or Watt than Reed.

Eifert was awful last season. Neither of them are going to stop Clowney or Watt, or be asked to, even. Not that we should want our fantasy TEs to be asked to do that.

They can "stop" the pass rush by providing a quick outlet. That may be the only way anyone stops them.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

So I have done 3 dynasty rookie drafts and C.J. Fiedorowicz has not been drafted in a single one.

Is he a pure blocking TE? not like he couldnt beat out Garret Graham.

Unstable QB condition?

 

[Adam Harstad]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

Only half his numbers count, because he was only half a TE.

 

[Adam Harstad]

So I have done 3 dynasty rookie drafts and C.J. Fiedorowicz has not been drafted in a single one.

Is he a pure blocking TE? not like he couldnt beat out Garret Graham.

Unstable QB condition?

I think Griffin might be the best play of all Texans TEs.

 

[FUBAR]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

Only half his numbers count, because he was only half a TE.

The circumstances are somewhat different but Reed isn't being used in the typical te role either.

 

[saintfool]

So I have done 3 dynasty rookie drafts and C.J. Fiedorowicz has not been drafted in a single one.

Is he a pure blocking TE? not like he couldnt beat out Garret Graham.

Unstable QB condition?

he could be used in two-TE sets, like OBrien's NE model, but i am reluctant to promote or compare to NE's an offense in such transition. i think he's going to get some playing time but blocking only. they're going to run the ball a lot and/or need to protect the QB really well to be effective. i'd rather use the roster space for a different lottery ticket.

 

[cstu]

So I have done 3 dynasty rookie drafts and C.J. Fiedorowicz has not been drafted in a single one.

Is he a pure blocking TE? not like he couldnt beat out Garret Graham.

Unstable QB condition?

He's not just a blocker but he doesn't look like a great receiving threat. Combine that with the lousy QB situation, competition from Graham/Griffen and he's not really worth a roster spot except in very deep or TE heavy leagues.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Shanahan’s system is in the past, and Reed will have a new role in Jay Gruden’s offense. Gruden’s past success with using his outside receivers as a focal point of the offense is bad news for Reed’s outlook. In 2013, A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Mohammed Sanu combined for 322 targets, while Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert combined for only 119. All three of the wide receivers spent an overwhelming majority of their snaps as an outside receiver.

Shanahan’s system is in the past, and Reed will have a new role in Jay Gruden’s offense. Gruden’s past success with using his outside receivers as a focal point of the offense is bad news for Reed’s outlook. In 2013, A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Mohammed Sanu combined for 322 targets, while Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert combined for only 119. All three of the wide receivers spent an overwhelming majority of their snaps as an outside receiver.

While I'm sure Gruden will have heavy influence on the offense, he's not the OC. The OC is the former 'Skins TEs coach, who said he loves what Reed brings to the table.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

Only half his numbers count, because he was only half a TE.

The circumstances are somewhat different but Reed isn't being used in the typical te role either.

Colston was never an actual TE - it was only Yahoo "glitch" that listed him as such. He was a college WR that played WR in the NFL.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

Only half his numbers count, because he was only half a TE.

The circumstances are somewhat different but Reed isn't being used in the typical te role either.

I wasn't saying that Colston wasn't used in the traditional TE role. I was saying that Yahoo gave him WR/TE eligibility, suggesting that he was only half a TE. I was trying to make a joke (and apparently failing pretty miserably ).

In reality, Marques Colston was 0% a TE. He was a WR, listed as a WR on the depth chart, lining up out wide on the field, and the only reason he had TE eligibility at all is because some pre-draft analysts were wildly speculating that he might translate as a TE at the NFL level, and Yahoo never bothered updating before the season because he was "just" a 7th round rookie WR, and therefore it was unlikely to make any difference (and then once the season started they couldn't change it because people were already counting on him at TE). It'd be like if an IDP league listed Von Miller as a DE his rookie year because some pre-draft scouting reports projected him as a 4-3 defensive end. Calling him so doesn't make it true.

Jordan Reed was a TE being used in a slightly unconventional role. Marques Colston was a WR, full stop.

 

[ebsteelers]

How does the TE change affect JReed?

Bengals TE never seemed to pop under Jay Money.

Rudolph will be the flavor of the month with Norv around.

 

[Adam Harstad]

How does the TE change affect JReed?

Bengals TE never seemed to pop under Jay Money.

Rudolph will be the flavor of the month with Norv around.

Bengals TEs might not have popped because "Jay Money" doesn't like TEs. Or they might not have popped because Andy Dalton doesn't like TEs. Or they might not have popped because Jermaine Gresham is mediocre and Tyler Eifert was a rookie. Lots of unknowns. Personally, I'm optimistic because we already know that Griffin loves Reed and Reed's new offensive coordinator loves Reed. Plus, Reed seems to be pretty dang good. Smart coaches get the ball in the hands of their playmakers, and Reed is a playmaker.

 

[Biabreakable]

He is basically a slot WR with TE eligibility. Not that that's a bad thing for FF purposes, but from that perspective his rookie year was less amazing.

Before his final concussion, he was on pace for 88/974/6, which would still be pretty flipping amazing for a sub-package rookie WR. And that assumes that he wouldn't have finished the season any stronger than he started it. He had more yards per snap played and yards per route run than anyone except for Gronk and Graham, and Graham only barely edged him, despite also being basically a slot WR with TE eligibility (and a 1st ballot HoF QB). The only WRs with a higher yards per route run were Julio, Calvin, Gordon, Blackmon, Boldin, Desean, Brown, Alshon, Andre, Green, and VJax. That's not a shabby list- I see a lot of All Pros on it. Fellow rookie Keenan Allen wasn't on it, despite his extremely impressive season.

Another point: here's Washington's receiving corps, along with their height.

Garcon (5'11")

DJax (5'9")

Roberts (5'11")

Hankerson (6'1")

Robinson (5'10")

Grant (6'0")

Moss (5'9")

Reed (6'3")

Who do you bet will be the go-to in the red zone next year?

Hoffman (6'4").

There is a lot more competition for targets there now than there was last season.

I like Hoffman quite a bit and I think he can make the team but there is tons of competition there right now. They also added Ryan Grant. Along with DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts in free agency. All of these players may be taking targets away from what some may be expecting for Reed based on last season when they had Garcon and not much else.

I do think Hoffman is an upgrade from Hankerson, who is a player they didn't seem to have much confidence in last season.

eta - some of you have made some good points in response to Dan Schneiers article. I am glad that was able to generate some discussion on Reed.

 

[saintfool]

How does the TE change affect JReed?

Bengals TE never seemed to pop under Jay Money.

Rudolph will be the flavor of the month with Norv around.

i'm looking to grab AC Leonard for this very reason. i think he can be more productive given the chance.

 

[Biabreakable]

How does the TE change affect JReed?

Bengals TE never seemed to pop under Jay Money.

Rudolph will be the flavor of the month with Norv around.

i'm looking to grab AC Leonard for this very reason. i think he can be more productive given the chance.

It really depends on roster size I guess as to if you should roster Leonard or not. He is a UDFA flyer type of player at this point who may not even make the team. If he does make the team I think it is a good situation for opportunity due to Norv hopefully being the OC for the Vikings for the next 2-3 seasons.

Most likely Rudolph has a great season and re-signs with the Vikings who I think is a favorite of Spielman and the fan base.

Leonard is talented enough that if he does not make the Vikings team he could land somewhere else with better opportunity as well. I would think in most leagues he would be fine on waivers until it becomes known if he makes the team or not and very dropable if Rudolph does sign a new contract.

The upside is intriguing though.

Has anyone watched much of Richard Rodgers? He was a top 100 pick by Green Bay. He was not on my radar at all prior to the NFL draft. I watched a little bit of him and he was doing pretty well catching the ball. So I wonder if he is not being overlooked in regards to Colt Lyerla signing in GB?

 

[Biabreakable]

So I watched this game of Rodgers against Stanford- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkwhrU77dyk

Starts off with him making a cut block on the DE. He makes the block which helps spring the run outside for a decent gain, but he loses his feet on the block which isn't good.

Second play he does alright getting to the second level on a bit of a reach block. The LB gets washed out of the play losing his feet.

The third play he does a 4 yard route and the ball is there just as he turns around. The timing was off and he does not make the catch.

All of those he lined up in line. The 4th play he lines up in the slot and does not really get positoning on his seal block to the inside. The run goes nowhere.

In line again he gets pretty open in the flat but the QB decides to go deep.

Misses his block on a run outside to the left and the guy he missed makes the play.

On another play he seals 2 defenders away from the lane which ends up being a pretty good run.

He usually does pretty well with his blocks but he loses his feet too often.

He picks up a PI on a seam route.

He does not look good on some of the lateral routes I see him run, never getting separation from the LB covering him. He was not able to adjust to a poorly throw pass that was behind him coming back to the QB.

He makes another catch on a out route for a 1st down. The coverage was pretty tight on this one again.

I am seeing him line up in line more often than the slot, but he does both.

He makes a big catch on a post running out of the slot where he gets behind the LB. If he had a bit more speed he could have scored there but the safety is able to get him at the sideline.

He falls down on two routes one where he trips and another where he slips.

He makes another short catch across the middle. He does not get much yards after the catch as the guy covering him is right there to make the play.

He makes another catch off of a post. This seems to be how he makes plays is by running the seams more so than laterally.

Then another catch on a post where he is pretty closely covered. He seems to be able to catch over his shoulder pretty well which helps.

So overall he seems ok as a blocker but not very nifty as a route runner. Can make some good catches over his shoulder on the seam/post routes but does not look as good running laterally. Does not get a lot of separation from coverage. I didn't see any run after the catch ability to make defenders miss but he has some alright speed to beat LB over the middle.

Here is a video of Rodgers catches from other games http://www.patriots.com/media-center/videos/2014-Draft-Prospect---Richard-Rodgers-TE-Calif/bcfb4092-30da-4b85-96d8-eef7f54f3317

He makes some good plays here. And breaks a few tackles.

 

[FUBAR]

The following TEs averaged more fantasy points per game (PPR) as a rookie than Jordan Reed:

Mike Ditka

Talk about his favorable situation, sure, but he's hardly the first rookie TE to play in a favorable situation. He pretty much *IS* the first rookie TE in history to put up numbers like that.

Thought colston did better.

Only half his numbers count, because he was only half a TE.

The circumstances are somewhat different but Reed isn't being used in the typical te role either.

I wasn't saying that Colston wasn't used in the traditional TE role. I was saying that Yahoo gave him WR/TE eligibility, suggesting that he was only half a TE. I was trying to make a joke (and apparently failing pretty miserably ).

In reality, Marques Colston was 0% a TE. He was a WR, listed as a WR on the depth chart, lining up out wide on the field, and the only reason he had TE eligibility at all is because some pre-draft analysts were wildly speculating that he might translate as a TE at the NFL level, and Yahoo never bothered updating before the season because he was "just" a 7th round rookie WR, and therefore it was unlikely to make any difference (and then once the season started they couldn't change it because people were already counting on him at TE). It'd be like if an IDP league listed Von Miller as a DE his rookie year because some pre-draft scouting reports projected him as a 4-3 defensive end. Calling him so doesn't make it true.

Jordan Reed was a TE being used in a slightly unconventional role. Marques Colston was a WR, full stop.

I know, I'm mostly joking with this. But (and tell me if I'm wrong) it seems the TE vs. WR designations are becoming more gray than before. With Graham fighting to be designated a WR and other TEs being used in other ways, it makes me wonder how much more the position will change.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Is it possible that Janis could be a candidate to move to TE? I only ask because he seems pretty huge, as is their need at TE.

 

[saintfool]

How does the TE change affect JReed?

Bengals TE never seemed to pop under Jay Money.

Rudolph will be the flavor of the month with Norv around.

i'm looking to grab AC Leonard for this very reason. i think he can be more productive given the chance.

It really depends on roster size I guess as to if you should roster Leonard or not. He is a UDFA flyer type of player at this point who may not even make the team. If he does make the team I think it is a good situation for opportunity due to Norv hopefully being the OC for the Vikings for the next 2-3 seasons.

Most likely Rudolph has a great season and re-signs with the Vikings who I think is a favorite of Spielman and the fan base.

Leonard is talented enough that if he does not make the Vikings team he could land somewhere else with better opportunity as well. I would think in most leagues he would be fine on waivers until it becomes known if he makes the team or not and very dropable if Rudolph does sign a new contract.

The upside is intriguing though.

i don't think Leonard is an immediate threat to Rudolph. He's got too much to learn really. if he picks up the finer points of the position - blocking namely - and Rudolph struggles then he might have an opportunity to contribute. i'll be following his progress in the OTAs and camp as a result. otherwise, he's at best a stash candidate.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Thoughts on Ertz in Philly's offense year two?

Should be a solid play. My guess is TE #5-7 at years end