A Mighty Wind (1 Viewer)

[netnalp]

Most people have heard about the strong, swirling winds around Giants Stadium and that they make passing difficult. The new Meadowlands Stadium has wind too, in June, Justin Tuck mentioned that during an OTA at the stadium the flags on both goalposts were blowing in, towards the field. So, the new stadium is going to have strange wind too, and in an Eli Manning thread there were posts that stated the winds were one of the factors to downgrade Eli. To support this, it was pointed out that only 3 Giants QB have thrown for 4,000 yards; Simms 1984, Collins 2002 and Eli 2009. I wondered, has the wind made a difference in the passing game for other QBs?<br><br>Giants stadium opened October 1976. I looked at all 4,000+ yd passing seasons by QB that played one or more games at Giants Stadium during that season. The 4,000 yard mark helps to limit the sample size and gives a group of QBs that passed a lot because it was the team's strength and/or their defense was weak. This creates a sample of 20 QBs with 65 games against or playing for the Jets or Giants at Giants Stadium during a 4,000+ passing yd season and 527 games played elsewhere during those seasons. The passing stats for each game a QB played at Giants stadium was subtracted from their season total and then that number was divided by the number of games played away from Giants Stadium to find the average passing game for that QB, ex. ((total passing - passing @ NY)/games elsewhere).<br><br>Calculation were based on individual seasons, but to conserve space the average is shown for QBs with multiple games at NY and/or multiple 4,000+ passing seasons.

Name	Indv Game	Cmp 	Att 	Cmp% 	Yds 	TD 	Int	Avg. game away	Comp	Att 	Cmp% 	Yds 	TD 	Int	
Bledsoe	avg @ NY	25	39	63.2%	255	2	2	avg Away	24	40	59.3%	272	2	1	
Brady	avg @ NY	24	37	65.1%	264	2	1	avg Away	23	35	66.0%	281	2	1	
Brees	avg @ NY	13	32	40.6%	132	1	0	avg Away	23	35	65.7%	286	2	1	
Collins	avg @ NY	22	36	60.5%	250	1	1	avg Away	20	32	62.5%	260	2	1	
Cutler	avg @ NY	27	43	62.8%	357	2	1	avg Away	24	38	62.3%	278	2	1	
Dickey	avg @ NY	16	28	57.1%	283	0	1	avg Away	18	30	59.9%	278	2	2	
Eli     avg @ NY	21	32	64.6%	275	2	1	avg Away	19	32	60.0%	228	3	2	
Elway	avg @ NY	20	29	69.0%	269	2	0	avg Away	22	35	62.8%	251	2	1	
Everett	avg @ NY	25	44	56.8%	315	2	1	avg Away	19	32	58.9%	266	2	1	
Favre	avg @ NY	25	36	70.4%	277	3	1	avg Away	22	34	64.3%	260	2	1	
Green	avg @ NY	15	28	53.6%	176	0	1	avg Away	20	32	63.0%	256	1	1	
Johnson	avg @ NY	19	28	66.1%	236	2	0	avg Away	20	33	60.3%	252	2	1	
Lomax	avg @ NY	19	38	50.0%	230	0	4	avg Away	22	35	62.5%	292	2	1	
Marino	avg @ NY	21	37	58.2%	324	3	1	avg Away	22	37	61.0%	278	2	1	
Moon	avg @ NY	27	40	66.7%	319	1	1	avg Away	24	39	61.2%	276	1	1	
Peyton  avg @ NY	21	36	58.8%	235	1	1	avg Away	22	34	64.2%	266	2	1	
Rivers	avg @ NY	24	36	66.7%	209	3	2	avg Away	20	30	65.1%	270	2	0	
Romo	avg @ NY	31	42	73.5%	320	4	1	avg Away	21	33	62.9%	269	2	1	
Simms	avg @ NY	18	31	56.2%	257	2	1	avg Away	18	36	50.8%	248	1	1	
Warner	avg @ NY	29	42	69.0%	344	2	2	avg Away	48	71	67.7%	582	4	2	

	Total Avg @ NY	22	35	62.9%	268	2	1	Total Avg away	22	36	62.3%	282	2	1

Name	GAMES @ ny w/ 4,000+ yd season
Bledsoe	4
Brady	4
Brees	1
Collins	8
Cutler	1
Dickey	1
Eli	8
Elway	1
Everett	1
Favre	2
Green	1
Johnson	2
Lomax	1
Marino	6
Moon	3
Peyton	7
Rivers	1
Romo	2
Simms	9
Warner	2

The results show that on average, during their 4,000+ seasons, these QBs passed for 14 more yards a game than they did at Giants Stadium. Fourteen yards seems like a small enough number that it I don't believe it 's statistically significant enough to conclude that the winds at the Meadowlands impact passing anymore than they do at other stadiums, if it does the QBs are capable of working with it.

The wind isn't a major factor. The current Giants team probably has the best combination of QB, WR and RB talent that the team has ever had since Giants Stadium opened. Simms didn't have great WRs, Collins wasn't that good (some may consider him and Eli about equal) he had Tiki, and Toomer who wasn't suited for the #1 WR spot. Warner in retrospect was probably the most talented QB of them all, but didn't show his potential in NY, don't know who's to blame for that. Eli's current experience and WRs are better as a whole than the inexperienced Eli, Tiki, Plaxico and an aging Toomer, Shockey was hurt most of the time it seemed.

 

[kutta]

Good analysis. A couple comments:

1. I'm not sure I buy using only +4000 yard QBs. Generally, those are better QB's and might be able to better account for the wind. If you are truly trying to figure out if wind plays a factor in the passing game at Giants stadium, all QB's should be used.

2. I don't think total yards passing is the correct stat to use. I think Yards per Passing Attempt would better reflect if one place is more difficult than another to play in.

I would be curious to see what would happen if you compared yards per passing attempt at Giants stadium to all other stadiums. That might not be entirely accurate either, but it would be an interesting thing to look at.

 

[netnalp]

Good analysis. A couple comments:1. I'm not sure I buy using only +4000 yard QBs. Generally, those are better QB's and might be able to better account for the wind. If you are truly trying to figure out if wind plays a factor in the passing game at Giants stadium, all QB's should be used.2. I don't think total yards passing is the correct stat to use. I think Yards per Passing Attempt would better reflect if one place is more difficult than another to play in. I would be curious to see what would happen if you compared yards per passing attempt at Giants stadium to all other stadiums. That might not be entirely accurate either, but it would be an interesting thing to look at.

Before looking into the stats, I thought that 4,000+ passers would have the better QBs. After doing the analysis I think the 20 QBs listed aren't all top tier guys. Kerry Collins, Trent Green, Brad Johnson Jim Everett, Jay Culter aren't considered top QBs and Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Phil Simms aren't in the same category as Marino, Moon or Peyton. Romo and Rivers aren't there either but may be in the 2nd tier of this group. I'm not familiar with Lomax or Dickey as to their ability. This was mostly a litmus test to see if there was an indication that further analysis need to be done. I don't think yards per attempt would matter since the stats of games played in NY are nearly identical to those away. My concern with using all games in NY, is the size of the sample. A prof taught me in grad school that if a sample gets too large then you find significance for most variables you look at. Ideally the sample would be one where all QBs that have played in NY are tiered, like people do for drafting, then you randomly select a few from each tier. I don't think the results would be much different.