A note on Torry Holt... (1 Viewer)

[seabronc]

I've been as surprised as anyone else to see Holt's apparent decline. What surprises me is that in fantasy circles people aren't talking more about the drastic difference between his home and away numbers. For the past couple seasons, his TD numbers have been significantly different. This year, the receptions and yardage have caught him. Sure, his entire game is deteriorating. But in a deep league, he makes a decent roster spot with an easy start/sit choice----- SIT him on the road, START him at home. Those home numbers extrapolate to 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, a fine WR3.

Home/Away 08 Rec Yds Avg Lng TD

Home Games 19 250 13.2 45 2

Road Games 13 97 7.5 22 0

Home/Away 07 Rec Yds Avg Lng TD

Home Games 41 597 14.6 39 6

Road Games 52 592 11.4 40 1

Home/Away 06 Rec Yds Avg Lng TD

Home Games 45 660 14.7 67 7

Road Games 48 528 11 42 3

 

[hellz_fireflies]

I've been as surprised as anyone else to see Holt's apparent decline. What surprises me is that in fantasy circles people aren't talking more about the drastic difference between his home and away numbers. For the past couple seasons, his TD numbers have been significantly different. This year, the receptions and yardage have caught him. Sure, his entire game is deteriorating. But in a deep league, he makes a decent roster spot with an easy start/sit choice----- SIT him on the road, START him at home. Those home numbers extrapolate to 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, a fine WR3.Home/Away 08 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 19 250 13.2 45 2Road Games 13 97 7.5 22 0 Home/Away 07 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 41 597 14.6 39 6Road Games 52 592 11.4 40 1 Home/Away 06 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 45 660 14.7 67 7Road Games 48 528 11 42 3

Nice work..but seems your challenger has him this week..against the jets he will do good, nice try!No S-Jax..St.Louis will throw galore. Sacks come not sure QB will live but they have no other chance then.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Thanks for the analysis.

I'm still using him as a #4 WR.

 

[heidbrink]

I find this Interesting. I wonder how does that work out in terms of ppg... And where does Tory rank in a ppr league in "home" games?

Aaaaaaand I wonder if other players display such a "home/away anomaly".

Aaaaaand who are the players with the biggest disparity.

 

[packersfan]

I've been as surprised as anyone else to see Holt's apparent decline. What surprises me is that in fantasy circles people aren't talking more about the drastic difference between his home and away numbers. For the past couple seasons, his TD numbers have been significantly different. This year, the receptions and yardage have caught him. Sure, his entire game is deteriorating. But in a deep league, he makes a decent roster spot with an easy start/sit choice----- SIT him on the road, START him at home. Those home numbers extrapolate to 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, a fine WR3.Home/Away 08 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 19 250 13.2 45 2Road Games 13 97 7.5 22 0 Home/Away 07 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 41 597 14.6 39 6Road Games 52 592 11.4 40 1 Home/Away 06 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 45 660 14.7 67 7Road Games 48 528 11 42 3

This has been talked about in other Holt threads but it's a great reminder. I think FBG has him ranked way too high, for example, and is ignoring how truly awful he's been on the road this season. It's not like there haven't been other road games where the Rams have had to throw a lot and road games with great matchups. Holt has stunk in all of them. I think he's a very risky start this week and I wouldn't trust him to do well given his terrible road numbers this season.

 

[hellz_fireflies]

I've been as surprised as anyone else to see Holt's apparent decline. What surprises me is that in fantasy circles people aren't talking more about the drastic difference between his home and away numbers. For the past couple seasons, his TD numbers have been significantly different. This year, the receptions and yardage have caught him. Sure, his entire game is deteriorating. But in a deep league, he makes a decent roster spot with an easy start/sit choice----- SIT him on the road, START him at home. Those home numbers extrapolate to 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, a fine WR3.Home/Away 08 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 19 250 13.2 45 2Road Games 13 97 7.5 22 0 Home/Away 07 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 41 597 14.6 39 6Road Games 52 592 11.4 40 1 Home/Away 06 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 45 660 14.7 67 7Road Games 48 528 11 42 3

This has been talked about in other Holt threads but it's a great reminder. I think FBG has him ranked way too high, for example, and is ignoring how truly awful he's been on the road this season. It's not like there haven't been other road games where the Rams have had to throw a lot and road games with great matchups. Holt has stunk in all of them. I think he's a very risky start this week and I wouldn't trust him to do well given his terrible road numbers this season.

I have to agree with most you said..but you forgot one thing..it's the jets secondary he's against without S-Jax.

 

[packersfan]

I've been as surprised as anyone else to see Holt's apparent decline. What surprises me is that in fantasy circles people aren't talking more about the drastic difference between his home and away numbers. For the past couple seasons, his TD numbers have been significantly different. This year, the receptions and yardage have caught him. Sure, his entire game is deteriorating. But in a deep league, he makes a decent roster spot with an easy start/sit choice----- SIT him on the road, START him at home. Those home numbers extrapolate to 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, a fine WR3.Home/Away 08 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 19 250 13.2 45 2Road Games 13 97 7.5 22 0 Home/Away 07 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 41 597 14.6 39 6Road Games 52 592 11.4 40 1 Home/Away 06 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 45 660 14.7 67 7Road Games 48 528 11 42 3

This has been talked about in other Holt threads but it's a great reminder. I think FBG has him ranked way too high, for example, and is ignoring how truly awful he's been on the road this season. It's not like there haven't been other road games where the Rams have had to throw a lot and road games with great matchups. Holt has stunk in all of them. I think he's a very risky start this week and I wouldn't trust him to do well given his terrible road numbers this season.

I have to agree with most you said..but you forgot one thing..it's the jets secondary he's against without S-Jax.

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

 

[Bri]

the rams have just had some terrible games that happen to be away. I wouldn't be surprised if several other Rams players struggled then too.

I don't think we know if it's definitely all Holt or just playing for one of the worst teams or some combo

 

[Bri]

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

Don't forget Bulger (and the OL) was terrible before Trent Green stepped in. That woke them up, then Haslett did. Tey have seemed like 2 different teams at times

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I've been as surprised as anyone else to see Holt's apparent decline. What surprises me is that in fantasy circles people aren't talking more about the drastic difference between his home and away numbers. For the past couple seasons, his TD numbers have been significantly different. This year, the receptions and yardage have caught him. Sure, his entire game is deteriorating. But in a deep league, he makes a decent roster spot with an easy start/sit choice----- SIT him on the road, START him at home. Those home numbers extrapolate to 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, a fine WR3.Home/Away 08 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 19 250 13.2 45 2Road Games 13 97 7.5 22 0 Home/Away 07 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 41 597 14.6 39 6Road Games 52 592 11.4 40 1 Home/Away 06 Rec Yds Avg Lng TDHome Games 45 660 14.7 67 7Road Games 48 528 11 42 3

This has been talked about in other Holt threads but it's a great reminder. I think FBG has him ranked way too high, for example, and is ignoring how truly awful he's been on the road this season. It's not like there haven't been other road games where the Rams have had to throw a lot and road games with great matchups. Holt has stunk in all of them. I think he's a very risky start this week and I wouldn't trust him to do well given his terrible road numbers this season.

I have to agree with most you said..but you forgot one thing..it's the jets secondary he's against without S-Jax.

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

Isn't this primarily an indictment of the offense? It isn't like Holt's talent changes from Home to Away games. So what could be different? Realistically, it's what happens when you have a bad O-line and a bad (or young) team. Inconsistency on the road. I really don't see how this has anything to do with Holt's ability.

 

[Trap Play]

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

I'm curious as to what makes you so certain Revis will be covering Holt and not Avery. Last week, the Cardinals treated Avery as the Ram's WR1, so why wouldn't the Jets?

 

[packersfan]

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

Don't forget Bulger (and the OL) was terrible before Trent Green stepped in. That woke them up, then Haslett did. Tey have seemed like 2 different teams at times

Here are Holt's two road games with Haslett as the head coach:5-23-03-28-0That's an average of 4-25-0. With Linehan, Holt's average in road games was 2-23-0. There isn't any noticeable difference. He's been horrible on the road this season no matter who the head coach has been.

 

[packersfan]

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

Isn't this primarily an indictment of the offense? It isn't like Holt's talent changes from Home to Away games. So what could be different? Realistically, it's what happens when you have a bad O-line and a bad (or young) team. Inconsistency on the road. I really don't see how this has anything to do with Holt's ability.

Whether Holt can still play is open to debate. What's clear is his road production this season is significantly worse than his production at home. There could be any number of reasons why and perhaps none of them reflect on Holt directly. But what is clear is his road production has been poor this season. Is it possible that changes? Sure. Anything's possible but speaking for myself, I wouldn't be comfortable starting Holt until he showed signs he could produce on the road. He's had good matchups on the road before and that hasn't helped. When I look at Holt right now, he's strictly a WR who deserves to be started when he's at home and the matchup is favorable. But that's me.As far as who covers him, I'm speculating it will be Revis but perhaps he locks in on Avery. Even if he does, I'm not sure the Rams are creative enough and Bulger is playing well enough to get the ball to Holt enough times for him to produce a quality game. I could be wrong. No question about that. But I can start five WRs in my league and Holt sits for me this week. The road trend is too strong for me to ignore and I can't risk any spot in my roster at this critical juncture of the season on someone I'm not confident will produce.

 

[Sinrman]

Is Holt on a decline? Sure.

Is it all Holt? Absolutely not. The O-line can't block anything. The running game hasn't shown up. The defense has been horrible, forcing the offense to abandon the running game a lot and have the QBs force more throws. Holt is being doubled teamed often. Holt didn't have a decent #2 to take some pressure off until recently (with the sudden rise of Avery). The drama involving Linehan.

There's a whole list of reasons for his decline. I think if Avery can continue what he's doing, it will take some pressure off of Holt. Of course, S-Jax being out will continue to make it difficult since they have shown no running game with him out...

 

[Bri]

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

Don't forget Bulger (and the OL) was terrible before Trent Green stepped in. That woke them up, then Haslett did. Tey have seemed like 2 different teams at times

Here are Holt's two road games with Haslett as the head coach:5-23-03-28-0That's an average of 4-25-0. With Linehan, Holt's average in road games was 2-23-0. There isn't any noticeable difference. He's been horrible on the road this season no matter who the head coach has been.

thanks for the researchIt's interesting he still struggled. Different topic-doesn't change anything-I don't think any NFL WR should only get 23 yards on 5 catches. Geesh what are they 3 yard routes and he's fighting for a yard or two after the catch? That's terrible offense.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I didn't forget that. I think the matchup will help Avery more than Holt. I think Revis can do a good job on Holt and Avery will end up with the superior numbers. It's always possible that Holt will do well but given how many good matchups he's had this season that he's choked on and combine that with how truly awful he's been in road games and I don't think he's very trustworthy this week.

Don't forget Bulger (and the OL) was terrible before Trent Green stepped in. That woke them up, then Haslett did. Tey have seemed like 2 different teams at times

Here are Holt's two road games with Haslett as the head coach:5-23-03-28-0That's an average of 4-25-0. With Linehan, Holt's average in road games was 2-23-0. There isn't any noticeable difference. He's been horrible on the road this season no matter who the head coach has been.

thanks for the researchIt's interesting he still struggled. Different topic-doesn't change anything-I don't think any NFL WR should only get 23 yards on 5 catches. Geesh what are they 3 yard routes and he's fighting for a yard or two after the catch? That's terrible offense.

Spot on. Holt has already commented that the coaches aren't using him on vertical routes. They are forcing him to run 5 yard routes repeatedly, which as he notes doesn't mesh well with his typical game. Sounds like the coaching staff is trying to adjust to an O-line that has zero ability to block. Regardless, very little of this - IMO - can be attributed to Holt. Is he a year older? Sure. But other top WRs have shown that they can be productive into their mid-30s. Holt SHOULD have another 2-3 good years left. Just not with such a piss poor squad.

 

[packersfan]

I don't think any NFL WR should only get 23 yards on 5 catches.

And that's what has made Holt one of this year's biggest busts. Outside of a couple of games, he isn't doing anything more than your average WR can do - and most of the time he's doing considerably worse.

 

[packersfan]

1 catch for 5 yards for Holt today.

It's tough to start him in any league right now period but he showed once again today that you can't start him on the road.

 

[Gargoylez]

I wasnt expecting HUGE numbers like the past but I grabbed Holt in the 3rd thinking he would be a decent #2, #3.

He has KILLED me this season... when DEVIN HESTER, a CB... errr WR beats him out each week... that is just flat out SAD.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I played him figuring that the Jets would a) blow it today or b) would build a huge lead and layoff a little...

I don't even want to name whoes on my bench...

 

[hankd]

left him on the bench...

and I'm dumping his ### now...

 

[gkza]

1 catch for 5 yards for Holt today.It's tough to start him in any league right now period but he showed once again today that you can't start him on the road.

Dude the amount of time you spend hating on Holt is staggering. Just an observation, not a judegement.

 

[Routilla]

STL home games in W15(SEA) and W16(SF) are the only reason I will not cut him. I don't want someone else to pick him up for the playoffs. But damn its hard not to.

 

[yoman]

1 catch for 5 yards for Holt today.

It's tough to start him in any league right now period but he showed once again today that you can't start him on the road.

I must disagree wholeheartedly halfheartedly. That was an absolutely amazing 5 yard catch and I believe Holt has now turned the corner and should be a good start from here on out.

I am a frustrated Holt owner and just needed to vent.

 

[Bankerguy]

He looks uninterested, tired, slow and ready for the offseason.

 

[omahabrad]

I own him in a dynasty league and I'm praying he ends up in carolina playing opposite of S. Smith.

 

[packersfan]

1 catch for 5 yards for Holt today.It's tough to start him in any league right now period but he showed once again today that you can't start him on the road.

Dude the amount of time you spend hating on Holt is staggering. Just an observation, not a judegement.

I wasn't aware that pointing out the facts was hating. He is one of the biggest busts of this season. I highly doubt I'm the only Holt owner who has been disappointed in him. All I've done in this thread is offer my advice to other Holt owners. As I posted before the game against the Jets, his production on the road has been awful and he isn't someone who can be started with any degree of confidence when the Rams are on the road.If you want to call it hating, knock yourself out. I'm simply trying to offer the best advice and information I can for Holt owners to help them make the best decisions they can if they're considering starting him.