A quick & dirty WR consistancy analysis (1 Viewer)

[Jayrod]

Here is a little analysis I did for one of my leagues. It was an attempt to determine which WR's have been the most consistant over the last two years.

It is based on my league's scoring system, which is very different so I don't know how useful it will be to anyone else.....

.2 pts/yd receiving

6 pts/TD

.25 pts/reception

.1 pts/return yard (& rushing yards)

Note the return yardage which was a factor in determining who even made this list. The criteria I used was any receiver who finished in the top 60 in total scoring among WR's for both 2005 & 2006, which gave me 34 WR's. Some notable names did not make the list (Randy Moss & Javon Walker most notable) due to an injury or just very poor performance. Since these factors effected the sample size, which unfairly effected standard deviation, I felt justified in excluding these names.

I then calculated the standard deviation & avg ppg over the entire 2-yr period (games not played were not part of the calculation) I then ranked both numbers (stddev & avgppg). Then I averaged the two rankings to come up with a combo ranking (the theory behind this is that higher scorers have more opportunity for a higher std dev) The results follow:

2-yr   StdDev   Avg	PPG	 Avg	combo		   player,team		StdDev	Rank   PPG	  Rank	rank   rank	  Owens, Terrell DAL WR	10.03 	16	 23.9 	2	 9.0 	1   Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR	 9.45 	11	 21.4 	7	 9.0 	2Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR	 9.10 	10	 20.3 	8	 9.0 	3	  Driver, Donald GBP WR	 9.86 	14	 20.2 	9	 11.5 	4		 Welker, Wes MIA WR	 7.86 	7	 17.8 	17	 12.0 	5	  Boldin, Anquan ARI WR	10.36 	21	 22.1 	5	 13.0 	6	   Wayne, Reggie IND WR	 9.79 	13	 18.9 	13	 13.0 	7		 Holt, Torry STL WR	11.07 	24	 22.4 	3	 13.5 	8		 Hall, Dante KCC WR	 7.99 	8	 16.6 	19	 13.5 	9	Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR	 7.65 	5	 13.8 	26	 15.5 	10	  Mason, Derrick BAL WR	 7.25 	4	 13.7 	27	 15.5 	11	Burress, Plaxico NYG WR	10.30 	20	 18.9 	12	 16.0 	12   Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR	 9.77 	12	 16.0 	21	 16.5 	13		Smith, Steve CAR WR	13.73 	33	 25.9 	1	 17.0 	14	Harrison, Marvin IND WR	12.37 	30	 22.3 	4	 17.0 	15	 Bryant, Antonio SFO WR	 8.74 	9	 14.7 	25	 17.0 	16   Johnson, Keyshawn CAR WR	 7.72 	6	 13.5 	28	 17.0 	17		Parker, Eric SDC WR	 7.01 	3	 12.3 	31	 17.0 	18		Cribbs, Josh CLE WR	 5.50 	1	 12.0 	33	 17.0 	19	  Taylor, Travis MIN WR	 6.31 	2	 10.0 	34	 18.0 	20	  Galloway, Joey TBB WR	11.91 	27	 19.6 	11	 19.0 	21		Glenn, Terry DAL WR	10.58 	22	 18.1 	16	 19.0 	22	   Johnson, Chad CIN WR	14.43 	34	 22.1 	6	 20.0 	23	   Moss, Santana WAS WR	13.47 	31	 19.8 	10	 20.5 	24		 Ward, Hines PIT WR	12.04 	28	 18.4 	14	 21.0 	25		Furrey, Mike DET WR	10.22 	18	 14.8 	24	 21.0 	26	   Williams, Roy DET WR	12.10 	29	 18.1 	15	 22.0 	27	   Bennett, Drew TEN WR	 9.88 	15	 13.1 	29	 22.0 	28	  Johnson, Andre HOU WR	11.15 	26	 16.1 	20	 23.0 	29	 Kennison, Eddie KCC WR	10.88 	23	 15.7 	23	 23.0 	30	 Chambers, Chris MIA WR	11.14 	25	 15.9 	22	 23.5 	31	   Booker, Marty MIA WR	10.25 	19	 12.9 	30	 24.5 	32	   Brown, Reggie PHI WR	10.07 	17	 12.2 	32	 24.5 	33		  Evans, Lee BUF WR	13.64 	32	 17.2 	18	 25.0 	34

The return guys appeared to be the most consistent in their week-week numbers. The biggest surprises to me were TO, Hines Ward & Andre Johnson. I would have expected TO to be less consistent and Ward & AJ to be higher up the list. But then again, this isn't exactly a scientific analysis.