massraider
Footballguy
I am going to use this thread as a diary of my first year in the WCOFF. I haven't really seen a thread on the subject, and while I think it could be helpful to potential WCOFF owners, part of it is my desire to keep a detailed history of what my strategy was, get some feedback from other posters, and maybe learn from my mistakes. So while I have selfish reasons for doing this, I think it can be helpful to other WCOFF players.
I am starting this post in mid-August, but won't post it till the day of the draft. Maybe a little bit of paranoia, but no desire to share my(our) strategy beforehand, just in case it turns out we are correct. Hopefully my partner will chime in, he doesn't post here much, but is active on other boards, and a WCOFF vet.
General thoughts/obvious strategies/stuff I needed to consider beforehand:
WCOFF season runs through week 11, league title game is week 12, weeks 13-16 decide the overall title. PPR league, with a RB/WR/TE flex. Won't bore you with scoring, most everyone knows it, but it is notable that QB passing yards is 1/20. 4 per TD pass. So what I pull from this is: RBs that can catch are a necessity, you want your players getting it done in the first half of the season, and a QB that gets yards.
Once we found out we drew the 3rd pick, we started really talking seriously about strategy. We looked at the WCOFF satellite ADP, and some PPR drafts from MFL. I didn't look at too many mock drafts, I am not interested who people draft when they have nothing on the line. I could not have been happier with the 3rd pick, I think the fall-off from ADP, MJD, and Forte is significant. And I like Forte a lot, he seems like the most likely pick. My partner likes MJD probably #1 overall, I think I prefer Forte, and the lack of catches from ADP and TD vulturing of Taylor is concerning. So from where I sit, I love Forte. (Aside: As we started looking at ADP, I like the later slots better and better, in that position, I'd probably have gone WR/WR/RB/RB, there appears to be some RB value at the 3/4 turn, IMO).
Strategy:
The goal, for us, is to win our league. Winning the whole thing is a nice dream, but cannot be a consideration.There is simply too many teams, and too much chance involved, to worry about winning the whole thing. So if we started looking at schedule, weeks 1-12 are a lot more important than weeks 13-16. We in general tried to not weight SOS that much, but if we were deciding between two players, we took a look at it. Some of our general strategies/principles:
1. Figure out where we differ from the groupthink, and capitalize on that. Two of the big ones for us: 1-The idea that there is more RB depth this year, and 2--That once the top TE's are gone, you may as well wait, as the next group is all the same. Regarding the RBs, with the increase this year in RBBC, there's more players getting points, but to us that means there are fewer true studs at RB, making them that much more value. And with the flex, if you have three RBs that are getting all the work, it's a big advantage. I will get into it later as to how that affected our plan. Regarding the TEs, there were three guys we liked more than others, and we think they represent big value. Those three were: Greg Olsen, John Carlson, and Zach Miller. Olsen we like a lot more than the other two, and Carlson we like quite a bit more than Miller. With JaMarcus at QB, Miller's ceiling appears lower.
2. Go for broke, to a certain extent. There's nothing to be proud of by finishing 2nd in your league. This thing costs a lot of money, I am not here for fun. The phrase we used as 'swing for the fences'. This dramatically affected our strategy in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The area we were not willing to gamble was on 'problem children'. For different reasons, we wanted no part of Brandon Marshall, Kellen Winslow, and Braylon Edwards.
3. Decide which teams we think will surprise, which will disappoint, and capitalize on that. Every year,fantasy studs emerge, and they often tend to do so from teams that emerge. We liked the offenses of Chicago and Seattle to improve quite a bit. We were willing to gamble on Shaub staying healthy, and the Texans offense to take the next step. I have major concerns about the Cards offense, thank god we weren't picking later, my partner would have pushed for Fitz in a big way. I think Matt Ryan will also take the next big step, and the Falcons to put up much better passing numbers.
So, let's get down to what we were thinking. With a RB at #3, we have our two picks at the 2/3 turn. The way the ADP is shaking out, it seems like we would be picking from the one of the big 8 WRs, seems like Roddy White or Steve Smith is the most likely. I like White a lot more than Smith, with Delhomme and Ryan, I think these players' numbers are going in the opposite direction. If there was a WR that I thought could vault into the top 4 tier at WR, it's Roddy.
However, the more we looked at ADP, and mocked it out, we really didn't like the RB options at the 4/5 turn. We really liked the RBs at the 2/3 turn (Barber, Jacobs, Brown, Bush) and the RB at the 3/4 turn (K. Smith, Grant, McFadden). Grant and Brown, in particular, were going later than we thought they should be going. We liked the receivers at the 4/5 turn quite a bit (Gonzales, VJax, DeSean) and really liked some of the WRs at the 6/7.
At this point, instead of following ADP, and going RB/WR/RB, we are seriously looking at RB/RB/RB. It fits into our strategy of 'swinging for the fences', and after the mid 4th, not sure if you can guarantee yourself a true lead back as a flex guy. And the fact that we really like guys like Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and think Reggie might be worth the risk in the 3rd, makes having 3 really good RBs a pretty big advantage to us. If Roddy is gone by our 2nd round pick, the choice to go 3 RB is easy. If he is there, we are going to have some thinking to do. My partner has really brought me around on Jacobs, who I think catches a few more balls this year, and has a (relatively) cheap handcuff. Barber scares me, and Felix will go too early for our liking. We went back and forth on Brown vs. Bush, but in the end, the fact that Brown has a similar upside, less injury risk, and a cheaper handcuff probably clinches him for us. I may even like Brown over Jacobs, but the ADP says we have a better chance of getting Brown in the 3rd, and I like Jacobs schedule and team better. I think we are even considering Grant in the 3rd. His ADP is madness to me. Gets most of the work for a top offense, and is the goalline guy. If we thought Grant or McFadden would fall, we would probably not go for this strategy. If we go RB/RB/RB, and one of them is there, we will probably be kicking ourselves.
Assuming we go with the 3 RB, WR at the 4/5 is the move, and we are hoping to come away with 2 of VJax, OchoCinco, Gonzales, Housh. If a guy falls here a little bit, it is going to really make our 3RB strategy look better. I like the WRs you can get in the middle rounds a lot more than the RBs in the middle rounds. A lot of those guys are in RBBC, or need an injury to do anything. And frankly, the RBs you get in the 7th aren't much different from RBs you can get in the 10th. They all need something to break their way in order to make some noise. Whereas the WRs we will be loading up on in the middle rounds are much better than WRs taken later.
I haven't really discussed the QB position, but the 6/7 turn is pivotal for us. Historically, the top of the QB heap changes a bit, and guys climb the ranks. Part of our 'swing for the fences' attitude is that we think certain QBs can make it into the top 5. We like Shaub and Palmer. And for the price of getting him a round or so earlier, we like the stability of Shaub over Palmer. We also love Hass this year, and if we get one of these guys in the mid rounds, we are willing to grab our backup QB early. I am a fan of being the first to take a backup QB.
We are thinking about TE/QB/WR3 here. The guys we'd love to see here are Shaub and Olsen. If they are both here, there'd be some discussion. Obviously, it matters what the 1-2 teams have. If they both have a QB or TE here, it makes the decision easier. I am big on Shaub and Palmer, and the debate is: If we take Olsen and let Shaub go, is Palmer worth the risk later, if he is even there? If we come away from this spot without a QB, I will be holding my breath for the next 23 picks.
I like Carlson and Miller later at TE, but I think Olsen is worth the risk here. I think he could contend for TE1, I really do. Depending on how the QBs and WRs go, we may come away with TE and QB here, although we really, really like some of these WRs (Walter, Driver, Mason, Berrian). I think I am leaning Shaub/Olsen in some order, and hope one of our sleeper WRs pans out later. Sleeper WRs that we like are:
Bess/Camarillo: One of them will help in a PPR. We hope to know which by the draft. I will be eyeballing that 3rd preseason game. EDIT: With Hartline, this is a mess. I don't know if the Fins passing game offers enough to warrant targeting one of these guys. Maybe a flyer on Bess late.
Steve Smith (NYG): Not going to kill it, but I think he is a solid play, that won't get shut out.
Derrick Mason: Love him at his ADP. nothing sexy, just a lot of receptions, and Mark Clayton doesn't scare me.
Percy Harvin: Hate the character, love the talent. I am pushing for him.
Chaz Schilens: The injury is the best thing that could have happened to us. We are both Raider fans, and he was no secret to us. His performance in the first preseason game was awful news to us. He's not a WR3 anyway, so you won't need him till the bye weeks, and he should be back by then. So, assuming he is back within 8 weeks, the injury isn't even a big factor. We should be able to get him in the 12th-14th.
Patrick Crayton: Not a believer in Roy, although I like him at his ADP okay enough. But I think Crayton could be a guy Romo trusts, and his ADP isn't that high, as Austin and Hurd got talked up in training camp. We don't think they are a serious challenge. And when/if Roy injures himself again, Crayton is a great WR3.
James Jones: There has been a lot of Jordy Nelson love, and Jones had an injury. Perfect storm to get the #3 WR for a good passing team.
Nate Burleson: Love that Deon Butler has gotten press, and love that Hass has looked good.
Mike Furrey: Maybe as a last round pick, maybe as a FA. We expect Quinn to in the job, and Furrey might be his security blanket.
Other players I think we are targeting:
QB: Matt Hassleback as our backup QB. I think we are willing to jump up and get him. We especially like him, because if he goes down, we know Seneca Wallace will be available to get, an might provide a decent option for fantasy points. If Hass stays healthy, I think top 10 numbers are very possible.
RB: We like Leon Washington. Had a nice game on national television, which we didn't like.
Bernard Scott and James Davis: I think the two most likely guys to lose their jobs are Benson and Lewis. Love to get both of these guys.
Julius Jones: I actually liked him at his ADP before, with the signing of Edgerrin, that should plummet. And I think there's a real chance he hangs onto the job. Enough of a chance to snag him late. Great part about getting a guy like that late is, you know within a month if he is worth keeping, and if not, you have a valuable roster spot to use on a FA, and not worry about getting burned later if the player pays off. Love the risk/reward on this guy. I am a fan of guys that can help you, even a little bit, and get a lot of hate on the message boards.
Peyton Hillis: Only good things happen when this guy gets the rock. A bigger, whiter Leon Washington? McDaniels seems to be reading from the Belichick playbook, all the way down to wardrobe, and that playbook includes RBBC. It's a big reason we are down on Moreno.
Tim Hightower: Sometimes, players just aren't tough, or get dinged a lot. If Beanie is one of those guys, Hightower is a massive value. I know this, the Beanie owner isn't going to get Hightower cheap in this draft.
Jamaal Charles: The more they pass, the less valuable LJ becomes.
Rashard Jennings: We like the talent, and think he might be the MJD backup.
Deshawn Wynn: If we reach for Grant, this guy makes a nice last round pick.
TE: We really differ from the ADP. We don't like Clark at his ADP, I don't trust Gonzo to just continue where he left off in a new offense., and I don't like Cooley's offense. I think Carlson is dramatically underrated. And Zach Miller I like more than Winslow. We loved Olsen more than most, but that cat is out of the bag. Bo Sciafe has a mind-boggling ADP, (211 at the time I write this) total value, in our opinion.
We are both Raider fans, so we are trying to step back a bit. Miller will be a PPR monster, but will he get the TDs of Carlson or Olsen? Doubtful.
JerMichael Finley: As a backup TE, few players have more upside. Love the offense, love that the Pack passes the ball, and think he could be a redzone target.
Week and a half away from the draft, and we have been monitoring the WCOFF satellite ADP pretty closely. Unfortunately, it seems a lot of people we liked three weeks ago, and thought were bargains, are no longer bargains. The receivers that a week or so ago were right in our 4/5 wheelhouse, have seen their ADP climb. OchoCinco, VJax, Gonzales, and DeSean have climbed above our 4th rounder. There's guys we like after that, Ward, Mason, but I am not sure they provide much moe than guys going at the 6/7 turn for us--Evans, Berrian, Walter. Walter is a target for us at that 6/7 turn, hard to see him not winding up on our team.
So we are playing with the idea of going WR/TE, or WR/QB in some fashion there. QBs fall in WCOFF, and we think only Aaron Rodgers is worth discussion there. We are prepared to go with a Shaub/Hassleback or Palmer/Hassleback committee. The TE in question is Olsen, whose ADP has skyrocketed. It's very possible, in our mind, that Olsen puts up low-end WR2 numebrs. So if it comes down to Gonzales/Ward, or Gonzales/Olsen, I am not sure there is much of a drop-off from Ward to Mason/Driver/Walter, who we can get later.
The RB we like in the 2nd, Brandon Jacobs, has also seen his ADP climb in Mock Draft Central to 20th. But is still at 26 in the satellite list. This is making my partner nervous. I am of the mind that we can take a RB in the 2nd round, and maybe get Jacobs in the 3rd. And if not, Ryan Grant should be there. Grant, thank God, hasn't climbed too much, but we think he is a fine 3rd rounder, and that people are sleeping on him.
The worst case scenario, is Jacobs/Portis is gone in the 2nd. If that happens, we are preparing for the WR there. And really, taking a Roddy White there isn't bad news. I like him just as much as Reggie Wayne. If so, that makes a RB at 4/5 a necessity, in our mind. The only guys there we like are Addai and Wells. We decided on Wells based on his clearer path to the most carries, and cheaper handcuff. Drafting Donald Brown a round later isn't a strategy we like.
I am starting this post in mid-August, but won't post it till the day of the draft. Maybe a little bit of paranoia, but no desire to share my(our) strategy beforehand, just in case it turns out we are correct. Hopefully my partner will chime in, he doesn't post here much, but is active on other boards, and a WCOFF vet.
General thoughts/obvious strategies/stuff I needed to consider beforehand:
WCOFF season runs through week 11, league title game is week 12, weeks 13-16 decide the overall title. PPR league, with a RB/WR/TE flex. Won't bore you with scoring, most everyone knows it, but it is notable that QB passing yards is 1/20. 4 per TD pass. So what I pull from this is: RBs that can catch are a necessity, you want your players getting it done in the first half of the season, and a QB that gets yards.
Once we found out we drew the 3rd pick, we started really talking seriously about strategy. We looked at the WCOFF satellite ADP, and some PPR drafts from MFL. I didn't look at too many mock drafts, I am not interested who people draft when they have nothing on the line. I could not have been happier with the 3rd pick, I think the fall-off from ADP, MJD, and Forte is significant. And I like Forte a lot, he seems like the most likely pick. My partner likes MJD probably #1 overall, I think I prefer Forte, and the lack of catches from ADP and TD vulturing of Taylor is concerning. So from where I sit, I love Forte. (Aside: As we started looking at ADP, I like the later slots better and better, in that position, I'd probably have gone WR/WR/RB/RB, there appears to be some RB value at the 3/4 turn, IMO).
Strategy:
The goal, for us, is to win our league. Winning the whole thing is a nice dream, but cannot be a consideration.There is simply too many teams, and too much chance involved, to worry about winning the whole thing. So if we started looking at schedule, weeks 1-12 are a lot more important than weeks 13-16. We in general tried to not weight SOS that much, but if we were deciding between two players, we took a look at it. Some of our general strategies/principles:
1. Figure out where we differ from the groupthink, and capitalize on that. Two of the big ones for us: 1-The idea that there is more RB depth this year, and 2--That once the top TE's are gone, you may as well wait, as the next group is all the same. Regarding the RBs, with the increase this year in RBBC, there's more players getting points, but to us that means there are fewer true studs at RB, making them that much more value. And with the flex, if you have three RBs that are getting all the work, it's a big advantage. I will get into it later as to how that affected our plan. Regarding the TEs, there were three guys we liked more than others, and we think they represent big value. Those three were: Greg Olsen, John Carlson, and Zach Miller. Olsen we like a lot more than the other two, and Carlson we like quite a bit more than Miller. With JaMarcus at QB, Miller's ceiling appears lower.
2. Go for broke, to a certain extent. There's nothing to be proud of by finishing 2nd in your league. This thing costs a lot of money, I am not here for fun. The phrase we used as 'swing for the fences'. This dramatically affected our strategy in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The area we were not willing to gamble was on 'problem children'. For different reasons, we wanted no part of Brandon Marshall, Kellen Winslow, and Braylon Edwards.
3. Decide which teams we think will surprise, which will disappoint, and capitalize on that. Every year,fantasy studs emerge, and they often tend to do so from teams that emerge. We liked the offenses of Chicago and Seattle to improve quite a bit. We were willing to gamble on Shaub staying healthy, and the Texans offense to take the next step. I have major concerns about the Cards offense, thank god we weren't picking later, my partner would have pushed for Fitz in a big way. I think Matt Ryan will also take the next big step, and the Falcons to put up much better passing numbers.
So, let's get down to what we were thinking. With a RB at #3, we have our two picks at the 2/3 turn. The way the ADP is shaking out, it seems like we would be picking from the one of the big 8 WRs, seems like Roddy White or Steve Smith is the most likely. I like White a lot more than Smith, with Delhomme and Ryan, I think these players' numbers are going in the opposite direction. If there was a WR that I thought could vault into the top 4 tier at WR, it's Roddy.
However, the more we looked at ADP, and mocked it out, we really didn't like the RB options at the 4/5 turn. We really liked the RBs at the 2/3 turn (Barber, Jacobs, Brown, Bush) and the RB at the 3/4 turn (K. Smith, Grant, McFadden). Grant and Brown, in particular, were going later than we thought they should be going. We liked the receivers at the 4/5 turn quite a bit (Gonzales, VJax, DeSean) and really liked some of the WRs at the 6/7.
At this point, instead of following ADP, and going RB/WR/RB, we are seriously looking at RB/RB/RB. It fits into our strategy of 'swinging for the fences', and after the mid 4th, not sure if you can guarantee yourself a true lead back as a flex guy. And the fact that we really like guys like Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and think Reggie might be worth the risk in the 3rd, makes having 3 really good RBs a pretty big advantage to us. If Roddy is gone by our 2nd round pick, the choice to go 3 RB is easy. If he is there, we are going to have some thinking to do. My partner has really brought me around on Jacobs, who I think catches a few more balls this year, and has a (relatively) cheap handcuff. Barber scares me, and Felix will go too early for our liking. We went back and forth on Brown vs. Bush, but in the end, the fact that Brown has a similar upside, less injury risk, and a cheaper handcuff probably clinches him for us. I may even like Brown over Jacobs, but the ADP says we have a better chance of getting Brown in the 3rd, and I like Jacobs schedule and team better. I think we are even considering Grant in the 3rd. His ADP is madness to me. Gets most of the work for a top offense, and is the goalline guy. If we thought Grant or McFadden would fall, we would probably not go for this strategy. If we go RB/RB/RB, and one of them is there, we will probably be kicking ourselves.
Assuming we go with the 3 RB, WR at the 4/5 is the move, and we are hoping to come away with 2 of VJax, OchoCinco, Gonzales, Housh. If a guy falls here a little bit, it is going to really make our 3RB strategy look better. I like the WRs you can get in the middle rounds a lot more than the RBs in the middle rounds. A lot of those guys are in RBBC, or need an injury to do anything. And frankly, the RBs you get in the 7th aren't much different from RBs you can get in the 10th. They all need something to break their way in order to make some noise. Whereas the WRs we will be loading up on in the middle rounds are much better than WRs taken later.
I haven't really discussed the QB position, but the 6/7 turn is pivotal for us. Historically, the top of the QB heap changes a bit, and guys climb the ranks. Part of our 'swing for the fences' attitude is that we think certain QBs can make it into the top 5. We like Shaub and Palmer. And for the price of getting him a round or so earlier, we like the stability of Shaub over Palmer. We also love Hass this year, and if we get one of these guys in the mid rounds, we are willing to grab our backup QB early. I am a fan of being the first to take a backup QB.
We are thinking about TE/QB/WR3 here. The guys we'd love to see here are Shaub and Olsen. If they are both here, there'd be some discussion. Obviously, it matters what the 1-2 teams have. If they both have a QB or TE here, it makes the decision easier. I am big on Shaub and Palmer, and the debate is: If we take Olsen and let Shaub go, is Palmer worth the risk later, if he is even there? If we come away from this spot without a QB, I will be holding my breath for the next 23 picks.
I like Carlson and Miller later at TE, but I think Olsen is worth the risk here. I think he could contend for TE1, I really do. Depending on how the QBs and WRs go, we may come away with TE and QB here, although we really, really like some of these WRs (Walter, Driver, Mason, Berrian). I think I am leaning Shaub/Olsen in some order, and hope one of our sleeper WRs pans out later. Sleeper WRs that we like are:
Bess/Camarillo: One of them will help in a PPR. We hope to know which by the draft. I will be eyeballing that 3rd preseason game. EDIT: With Hartline, this is a mess. I don't know if the Fins passing game offers enough to warrant targeting one of these guys. Maybe a flyer on Bess late.
Steve Smith (NYG): Not going to kill it, but I think he is a solid play, that won't get shut out.
Derrick Mason: Love him at his ADP. nothing sexy, just a lot of receptions, and Mark Clayton doesn't scare me.
Percy Harvin: Hate the character, love the talent. I am pushing for him.
Chaz Schilens: The injury is the best thing that could have happened to us. We are both Raider fans, and he was no secret to us. His performance in the first preseason game was awful news to us. He's not a WR3 anyway, so you won't need him till the bye weeks, and he should be back by then. So, assuming he is back within 8 weeks, the injury isn't even a big factor. We should be able to get him in the 12th-14th.
Patrick Crayton: Not a believer in Roy, although I like him at his ADP okay enough. But I think Crayton could be a guy Romo trusts, and his ADP isn't that high, as Austin and Hurd got talked up in training camp. We don't think they are a serious challenge. And when/if Roy injures himself again, Crayton is a great WR3.
James Jones: There has been a lot of Jordy Nelson love, and Jones had an injury. Perfect storm to get the #3 WR for a good passing team.
Nate Burleson: Love that Deon Butler has gotten press, and love that Hass has looked good.
Mike Furrey: Maybe as a last round pick, maybe as a FA. We expect Quinn to in the job, and Furrey might be his security blanket.
Other players I think we are targeting:
QB: Matt Hassleback as our backup QB. I think we are willing to jump up and get him. We especially like him, because if he goes down, we know Seneca Wallace will be available to get, an might provide a decent option for fantasy points. If Hass stays healthy, I think top 10 numbers are very possible.
RB: We like Leon Washington. Had a nice game on national television, which we didn't like.
Bernard Scott and James Davis: I think the two most likely guys to lose their jobs are Benson and Lewis. Love to get both of these guys.
Julius Jones: I actually liked him at his ADP before, with the signing of Edgerrin, that should plummet. And I think there's a real chance he hangs onto the job. Enough of a chance to snag him late. Great part about getting a guy like that late is, you know within a month if he is worth keeping, and if not, you have a valuable roster spot to use on a FA, and not worry about getting burned later if the player pays off. Love the risk/reward on this guy. I am a fan of guys that can help you, even a little bit, and get a lot of hate on the message boards.
Peyton Hillis: Only good things happen when this guy gets the rock. A bigger, whiter Leon Washington? McDaniels seems to be reading from the Belichick playbook, all the way down to wardrobe, and that playbook includes RBBC. It's a big reason we are down on Moreno.
Tim Hightower: Sometimes, players just aren't tough, or get dinged a lot. If Beanie is one of those guys, Hightower is a massive value. I know this, the Beanie owner isn't going to get Hightower cheap in this draft.
Jamaal Charles: The more they pass, the less valuable LJ becomes.
Rashard Jennings: We like the talent, and think he might be the MJD backup.
Deshawn Wynn: If we reach for Grant, this guy makes a nice last round pick.
TE: We really differ from the ADP. We don't like Clark at his ADP, I don't trust Gonzo to just continue where he left off in a new offense., and I don't like Cooley's offense. I think Carlson is dramatically underrated. And Zach Miller I like more than Winslow. We loved Olsen more than most, but that cat is out of the bag. Bo Sciafe has a mind-boggling ADP, (211 at the time I write this) total value, in our opinion.
We are both Raider fans, so we are trying to step back a bit. Miller will be a PPR monster, but will he get the TDs of Carlson or Olsen? Doubtful.
JerMichael Finley: As a backup TE, few players have more upside. Love the offense, love that the Pack passes the ball, and think he could be a redzone target.
Week and a half away from the draft, and we have been monitoring the WCOFF satellite ADP pretty closely. Unfortunately, it seems a lot of people we liked three weeks ago, and thought were bargains, are no longer bargains. The receivers that a week or so ago were right in our 4/5 wheelhouse, have seen their ADP climb. OchoCinco, VJax, Gonzales, and DeSean have climbed above our 4th rounder. There's guys we like after that, Ward, Mason, but I am not sure they provide much moe than guys going at the 6/7 turn for us--Evans, Berrian, Walter. Walter is a target for us at that 6/7 turn, hard to see him not winding up on our team.
So we are playing with the idea of going WR/TE, or WR/QB in some fashion there. QBs fall in WCOFF, and we think only Aaron Rodgers is worth discussion there. We are prepared to go with a Shaub/Hassleback or Palmer/Hassleback committee. The TE in question is Olsen, whose ADP has skyrocketed. It's very possible, in our mind, that Olsen puts up low-end WR2 numebrs. So if it comes down to Gonzales/Ward, or Gonzales/Olsen, I am not sure there is much of a drop-off from Ward to Mason/Driver/Walter, who we can get later.
The RB we like in the 2nd, Brandon Jacobs, has also seen his ADP climb in Mock Draft Central to 20th. But is still at 26 in the satellite list. This is making my partner nervous. I am of the mind that we can take a RB in the 2nd round, and maybe get Jacobs in the 3rd. And if not, Ryan Grant should be there. Grant, thank God, hasn't climbed too much, but we think he is a fine 3rd rounder, and that people are sleeping on him.
The worst case scenario, is Jacobs/Portis is gone in the 2nd. If that happens, we are preparing for the WR there. And really, taking a Roddy White there isn't bad news. I like him just as much as Reggie Wayne. If so, that makes a RB at 4/5 a necessity, in our mind. The only guys there we like are Addai and Wells. We decided on Wells based on his clearer path to the most carries, and cheaper handcuff. Drafting Donald Brown a round later isn't a strategy we like.
Keep meaning to read this...
