A very early look at ADP (1 Viewer)

[-jb-]

I'm just starting to scratch the surface for 2013, and was looking over ADP. Granted, it's very early. However, I noticed something interesting. Outside of the massive run at RB in the first round, I don't recall seeing such an even distribution of players drafted in each round. Have a look:

Round QB RB WR TE

1 0 10 2 0

2 2 5 4 1

3 2 4 5 1

4 2 3 6 1

5 2 4 5 1

6 3 3 5 1

7 1 4 5 2

8 1 2 8 1

13 35 40 8

QB - if RG3 gets drafted three spots later, it would be a near perfect distribution of 0/2/2/2/2/2/2/1.

RB - huge run in the beginning, then it bounces between 3 and 4 for most of it.

WR - if AJ slips one spot, you'd have 2/5/5/6/5/5/8.

TE - about as even as you could imagine.

To reiterate, it is way too early to consider this any more than notable. At the same time, we don't always see a tremendous shift in ADP outside of the Julio Jones-esque races to the top.

If the pattern holds true, it will be tough to argue against a BPA approach. It will be interesting to watch over the next 8 weeks.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

So I guess this means that you could expect to wait on just about every position but RB?

 

[-jb-]

Kinda. I think you just need to take a closer look at your tiers and see where the biggest drop offs are. Without needing to keep an eye for runs on a position (assuming this holds up), you can be a little more confident on waiting a round to take a guy. A few examples:

4th round RB runs have always seemed to be popular, so if you were picking at the end 3/4 turn and saw 10 RBs you like, you would still need to consider taking one. Maybe not in this scenario.

6th round QB have also been pretty common. You either got a big 3 guy, or you sat on it. With seeing a steady clip of 2 QBs per round, you can more accurately predict what's going to be available in the next round.

What's a bit astonishing to me is to see that many RBs fly off the board in round 1 with no reciprocation at the WR position in the second round.

 

[Gawain]

Have to ask what site and league settings you're using for your ADP list. Non-PPR won't see that kind of TE breakdown. This is not the year to take a non-Graham TE early.

The two earliest contenders for ADP change are Bradshaw (ascending) and Hernandez (descending.)

 

[-jb-]

Have to ask what site and league settings you're using for your ADP list. Non-PPR won't see that kind of TE breakdown. This is not the year to take a non-Graham TE early.

The two earliest contenders for ADP change are Bradshaw (ascending) and Hernandez (descending.)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp.php

 

[steveski]

As soon as preseason is underway, ADP will be completely scrambled. It's still a pretty interesting stat though. I think it supports more of the "general" drafting guidelines of getting RB early and the rest can wait. The past couple years, we saw some kinks in that philosophy. People were grabbing TE's early or QB's early. After last year, I think people are realizing that it may not have worked out for them. Under most default fantasy rules, it's very very difficult to win in fantasy without some stud RB's. It's possible to get by and win games with average QB's and waiver WR's and TE's. Besides injuries, there rarely are any RB's to snatch up post draft.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Thanks for posting this. Reading the Shark Pool has been a great education, but I think it's also influenced me into trying to be the smartest guy in the (draft) room. This year I'm still looking for value and upside, but I'm ditching the preconceived strategies. Sounds like this is a good time to let the draft come to me.

 

[Gawain]

As soon as preseason is underway, ADP will be completely scrambled. It's still a pretty interesting stat though. I think it supports more of the "general" drafting guidelines of getting RB early and the rest can wait. The past couple years, we saw some kinks in that philosophy. People were grabbing TE's early or QB's early. After last year, I think people are realizing that it may not have worked out for them. Under most default fantasy rules, it's very very difficult to win in fantasy without some stud RB's. It's possible to get by and win games with average QB's and waiver WR's and TE's. Besides injuries, there rarely are any RB's to snatch up post draft.

We fell in love with some of those near record-QB years and there was a lot less separation last year. The fact that Graham, Gronk and Hernandez all suffered some injury concerns is depressing the TE market as well this year.

Now, the RB run is really a self fulfilling condition at the moment. Because of the VBD drop when you have the prospect of a dozen RBs going between 1.04 and 2.09. The RB drop off is Martin/Charles to Gore, while the WR drop off is only Johnson to Thomas. To buck the trend and go WR/WR is even tougher because so few RBs are falling right now. There's a fair amount of discussion about this in the thread about the 12th pick.

 

[Biabreakable]

While I am certainly an advocate for staying flexible and letting the draft come to you, the way things are shaping up right now, I would likely not go against the tide of RB in at least one of the 1st 2 rounds and perhaps both. 15 picks at a position of scarcity in most leagues leads to a drop of 3 tiers of expected productivity. That is a big hole to try to overcome and I do not think the advantage you gain from drafting the other positions is quite enough to make up for that. Graham yes I think you need to consider him. The separation at the other positions is not enough to justify the swerve.

If your actual draft is very different than this that is another thing. So you want to be flexible, but I think you should come in well prepared to snag RB while you can.

 

[-jb-]

While I am certainly an advocate for staying flexible and letting the draft come to you, the way things are shaping up right now, I would likely not go against the tide of RB in at least one of the 1st 2 rounds and perhaps both. 15 picks at a position of scarcity in most leagues leads to a drop of 3 tiers of expected productivity. That is a big hole to try to overcome and I do not think the advantage you gain from drafting the other positions is quite enough to make up for that. Graham yes I think you need to consider him. The separation at the other positions is not enough to justify the swerve.

If your actual draft is very different than this that is another thing. So you want to be flexible, but I think you should come in well prepared to snag RB while you can.

Totally agree. It's a crazy run in the first round, and one you need to be a part of. After that, however, based on current ADP, there's a lot of flexibility.

 

[Fantasy Fool]

I'm going to try and get a RB in the first 2 rounds, despite the run at the position

 

[steveski]

I'm going to try and get a RB in the first 2 rounds, despite the run at the position

I think there's a 85% chance I do the same. I haven't liked how my teams turned out in any of the mocks I've done this year when I don't do RB/RB.

 

[Warrior]

We just drafted about a week ago (10 team, super deep...2 QB, 4 WR, 3 RB) and with the #6 pick, I passed on the RB run in round 1...and round 2. I think it turned out ok. 1/2 PPR, return yardage.

In the first and second, I drafted Megatron and AJ Green. I took my first RB in Round 3 - Chris Johnson. In round 4, I went with Percy Harvin. Rounds 5 and 6 were Reggie Bush and Lamar Miller. Round 7 was DeSean Jackson.

I felt nervous letting the RBs pass me by early, but I felt like there was a big dropoff after the top 5 RBs and didn't want to pass up on Calvin to reach for LaSean McCoy. In the second, I passed on Forte to take Green.

I think passing on the early RBs is ok as long as you make sure not to also reach for an early QB or TE.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Whoohoo, draft talk.

Thoughts on FF Calculator for these purposes?

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/completed_drafts.php

Useful, yes/no?

 

[Gawain]

I like FFC a lot. I don't trust their ADP's 100% and it's not great for PPR or any sort of different scoring. Having said that, I think FFC is a pretty good tool for rankings within position groups and gives a good feel for how drafts may go.

 

[pbandy1]

I'm going to try and get a RB in the first 2 rounds, despite the run at the position

I think there's a 85% chance I do the same. I haven't liked how my teams turned out in any of the mocks I've done this year when I don't do RB/RB.

Same here, although some mocks I'll draft Calvin Johnson first and end up with something like Forte / Murray, which is decent. Also, I must remind myself not to get BOTH a TE and QB in the first 7 rounds or so. Depends what's on the board.

 

[Grahamburn]

Whoohoo, draft talk.

Thoughts on FF Calculator for these purposes?

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/completed_drafts.php

Useful, yes/no?

As a general guideline they can be useful, but every drafter in those mocks is drafting for their league's scoring. Not the scoring laid out for the mock.

I also find drafters tend to make more "risky" picks in mocks then they do when their hard earned $$$ is on the line. I expect the elite QBs to go quite a bit earlier in real drafts than they do in those mocks.

 

[Fantasy Fool]

We just drafted about a week ago (10 team, super deep...2 QB, 4 WR, 3 RB) and with the #6 pick, I passed on the RB run in round 1...and round 2. I think it turned out ok. 1/2 PPR, return yardage.

In the first and second, I drafted Megatron and AJ Green. I took my first RB in Round 3 - Chris Johnson. In round 4, I went with Percy Harvin. Rounds 5 and 6 were Reggie Bush and Lamar Miller. Round 7 was DeSean Jackson.

I felt nervous letting the RBs pass me by early, but I felt like there was a big dropoff after the top 5 RBs and didn't want to pass up on Calvin to reach for LaSean McCoy. In the second, I passed on Forte to take Green.

I think passing on the early RBs is ok as long as you make sure not to also reach for an early QB or TE.

Team looks pretty solid, but that's expected in a 10 team league. Almost every team looks solid on paper. In a 12 team league, Chris Johnson goes in the 2nd, Reggie and Lamar in the 3rd round. So no way you get those guys that deep in a 12 team league.

That's one of my gripes with 10 team leagues, all the teams seem stacked, and it's hard to pull ahead of each other in terms of starting lineup talent.

I'd think most people on these forums play in 12 team or bigger leagues for the most part, but I could be wrong.

 

[cloppbeast]

Runningback's are more overrated than Sacramento real estate in 2004. Last season and amazing thing happened: we finally figured out we'd overrated runningback; but alas it didn't last long. We went back with our ex who treats us bad.

At least this year you'll have an easier time drafting a good team. Maybe.

 

[joey]

Whoohoo, draft talk.

Thoughts on FF Calculator for these purposes?

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/completed_drafts.php

Useful, yes/no?

Again, depending on how much you buy FFC's adp, I like this other page of there's:

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/scenario.php?format=standard&teams=12&pick=1

Gives me a good idea what group of players I can expect around each of my picks in my redraft leagues.

I tend to look for the range where there's a >70% chance of a player being available at the pick in question.

Let's me strategize different scenarios for my drafts pretty easily.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is going to be a bit off topic, but I was thinking about this is regards to projections. If most of these RB do not get injured could we see more rushing attempts in 2013 than we saw in 2012?

2012 17788pa 13925ra 31713 plays 435ra/team
2011 17410pa 13971ra 31381 plays 437ra/team
2010 17269pa 13920ra 31189 plays 435ra/team

2009 17033pa 14088ra 31121 plays 440ra/team
2008 16526pa 14119ra 30645 plays 441ra/team
2007 17045pa 13986ra 31031 plays 437ra/team
2006 16389pa 14447ra 30836 plays 451ra/team
2005 16464pa 14375ra 30839 plays 449ra/team
2004 16354pa 14428ra 30782 plays 451ra/team -enforcement of 5yd rule

2003 16493pa 14508ra 31001 plays
2002 17292pa 14102ra 31394 plays

If you go further back you will see a reduction of total plays from when there were less teams. I think this is the range of plays the NFL is currently operating in. This could be something very small such as only 2-5 more/less rushing attempts/team with some teams having more ra than others, or as large as 15/team which would be more significant. I have been trying to identify teams that might increase rushing attempts as well. I am just wondering if there may be more viable RB in 2013 than 2012 based on this ADP info and if that might mean an increase in overall rushing attempts by several teams this season? This would likely reduce overall plays somewhat as teams use more TOP from the additional runs. Passing attempts could remain stable or see some decline if that happens. Many teams are talking about using more hurry up/fast tempo in their offense as well. I just wonder if this season we wont see a shift to more rushing attempts and overall plays see a slight decline.

 

[-jb-]

I'm not sure you can find anything compelling looking at the league-wide rushing attempts. The overall logic also doesn't account for the additional work RBs have picked up in the passing game. I don't think you're going to get much out of the exercise unless you look at each team, and their specific situations (RB talent, QB talent, D talent, etc.)

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm not sure you can find anything compelling looking at the league-wide rushing attempts. The overall logic also doesn't account for the additional work RBs have picked up in the passing game. I don't think you're going to get much out of the exercise unless you look at each team, and their specific situations (RB talent, QB talent, D talent, etc.)

Yes and then that would be compared to the league wide frame work afterwards, with some possible adjustments at that point.

To try to ask this another way. What did ADP by position look like last season? I do not think as many RB were projected to be as valuable in 2012 as there are this season. Both Peterson and Charles were coming back from ACL injuries and people were not projecting them as high for one. Richardson may have been pretty high but Doug Marin was not until very close to the start of the season.

Teams I see possibly running more in 2013 than 2012 are- Titans 378ra, Steelers 412ra, Eagles 413ra, Jaguars 358ra, Chargers 411ra, Raiders 376ra, Cardinals.352ra. All of these teams were below the average of 435ra. Some significantly. Most have made some improvement to their Oline or with RB picks. Other borderline teams like the Packers and Bengals (around 430ra) could run more also. In 2012 over half of the teams were below the 435ra average with many runs being consolidated in the top 15ra teams.