Aaron Hernandez TE16 rest of season? (1 Viewer)

[ponchsox]

In the week 6 top 250 going foward, they have Aaron Hernadez as the 16th best fantasy TE for the rest of the season. I know his week 6 status is up in the air, but why so low?

TE1 Tony Gonzalez ATL / 7 10.0 105.0 115.0 28.3

2 TE2 Jimmy Graham NO / 6 0.0 115.0 115.0 20.3

3 TE3 Rob Gronkowski NE / 9 7.5 104.0 111.5 18.2

4 TE4 Vernon Davis SF / 9 8.6 93.0 101.6 11.5

5 TE5 Jason Witten DAL / 5 7.1 89.0 96.1 7.2

6 TE6 Owen Daniels HOU / 8 8.6 74.0 82.6 5.5

7 TE7 Antonio Gates SD / 7 7.3 75.0 82.3 5.1

8 TE8 Kyle Rudolph MIN / 11 6.3 73.0 79.3 4.2

9 TE9 Brent Celek PHI / 7 7.8 68.0 75.8 3.0

10 TE10 Jermichael Finley GB / 10 4.4 71.0 75.4 2.8

11 TE11 Martellus Bennett NYG / 11 5.5 69.0 74.5 1.4

12 TE12 Greg Olsen CAR / 6 0.0 74.0 74.0 1.3

13 TE13 Fred Davis WAS / 10 5.6 66.5 72.1 1.0

Past this point, all players have essentially the same value: very little. Which ones have more value depends on your particular roster needs. Here we list the rest of the players, sorted by position.

Player Bye This week FPT Rest of yr FPT Tot FPT Value

TE14 Brandon Pettigrew DET / 5 7.1 70.1 77.2 1.0

TE15 Heath Miller PIT / 4 6.0 67.0 73.0 1.0

TE16 Aaron Hernandez NE / 9 1.6 70.4 72.0 1.0

 

[solorca]

Because they are factoring in low performances for this week, and most likely next week as well as he's coming off of an injury.

 

[ponchsox]

Because they are factoring in low performances for this week, and most likely next week as well as he's coming off of an injury.

Even then, he has to outscore guys like Miller, Pettigrew, Davis, Bennett? Correct?

 

[stunaman]

Because they are factoring in low performances for this week, and most likely next week as well as he's coming off of an injury.

Even then, he has to outscore guys like Miller, Pettigrew, Davis, Bennett? Correct?

basically your clue to stop reading that useless crap

 

[QuizGuy66]

It's one thing to grade his scoring the rest of the year. His trade value is a different matter. Not sure the best way they could tweak the top-250 formula but it's clear their a disconnect b/w rest of the year total scoring and the true value of a stud TE like Hernandez.

-QG

 

[BobbyLayne]

Gates as TE7 would be huge upswing.

 

[Wadsworth]

Posting subscriber content would not be cool if this was my site.

 

[jim k]

Its all about the injury. He might not come back this week or even next week despite the tea leaves we read and think we know. The sprain could render him as unplayable. Look at Bradford last year. Basically there is still a lot of risk.

 

[NBusiness]

Posting subscriber content would not be cool if this was my site.

Who cares. It's crap anyway. Clogging up my email box.

 

[Sea Duck]

If you include the zeros that Hernandez is going to put up in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9, I would say that TE16 is a pretty fair assessment.

 

[Run It Up]

If you include the zeros that Hernandez is going to put up in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9, I would say that TE16 is a pretty fair assessment.

Where did you get that fancy information?

 

[Sea Duck]

If you include the zeros that Hernandez is going to put up in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9, I would say that TE16 is a pretty fair assessment.

Where did you get that fancy information?

It makes no sense to bring Hernandez back before he's at full strength. The offense isn't struggling. The schedule isn't demanding. They don't need him right now. Why risk further injury? Logic dictates that the prudent choice of action is to gradually ease Hernandez back into the lineup as they get closer to the playoffs.Bill Belichick doesn't care about your fantasy team.

 

[Run It Up]

If you include the zeros that Hernandez is going to put up in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9, I would say that TE16 is a pretty fair assessment.

Where did you get that fancy information?

It makes no sense to bring Hernandez back before he's at full strength. The offense isn't struggling. The schedule isn't demanding. They don't need him right now. Why risk further injury? Logic dictates that the prudent choice of action is to gradually ease Hernandez back into the lineup as they get closer to the playoffs.Bill Belichick doesn't care about your fantasy team.

First of all, I dont own hernandez in any league and would have never drafted him at his ADP.Second, if hes healthy he should be playing regardless. Ignoring entirely that it makes no sense to not try and win every game as the Patriots benefit imo more than any other team in the NFL by getting a week off in the post season, which if they wanna do they are gonna have to step up and stay there.I dont think the seahawks are gonna give the patriots as much as trouble as they have been giving the rest of the NFL, but if Hernandez is healthy, resting him makes no sense at all.

 

[Parkers99]

Take this for what its worth (not much), but I've found a strong correlation between sucking and using the 250 forward.

Don't look at it & win more.

 

[Sea Duck]

Second, if hes healthy he should be playing regardless.

He's not healthy. He was limping 5 days ago. You don't go from limping to "NFL ready" in 12 days.

Ignoring entirely that it makes no sense to not try and win every game as the Patriots benefit imo more than any other team in the NFL by getting a week off in the post season, which if they wanna do they are gonna have to step up and stay there.

Next 3 games are the Seahawks, the Jets, and the Rams. A gimpy Hernandez isn't going to be the deciding factor in any of those games. Better to rest him now so that he can be 100% for Miami, Houston, San Francisco, and the playoffs.

 

[asuterlowe]

Second, if hes healthy he should be playing regardless.

He's not healthy. He was limping 5 days ago. You don't go from limping to "NFL ready" in 12 days.

Ignoring entirely that it makes no sense to not try and win every game as the Patriots benefit imo more than any other team in the NFL by getting a week off in the post season, which if they wanna do they are gonna have to step up and stay there.

Next 3 games are the Seahawks, the Jets, and the Rams. A gimpy Hernandez isn't going to be the deciding factor in any of those games. Better to rest him now so that he can be 100% for Miami, Houston, San Francisco, and the playoffs.

The pats lost to an ARZ team not unlike the Seahawks. The Seahawks also managed to sack Rodgers 8 times in the first half. You may assume that the Patriots view that game and the 2 after it as free wins, but I assure you BB doesn't share your views.

 

[SameSongNDance]

If you include the zeros that Hernandez is going to put up in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9, I would say that TE16 is a pretty fair assessment.

Where did you get that fancy information?

It makes no sense to bring Hernandez back before he's at full strength. The offense isn't struggling. The schedule isn't demanding. They don't need him right now. Why risk further injury? Logic dictates that the prudent choice of action is to gradually ease Hernandez back into the lineup as they get closer to the playoffs.Bill Belichick doesn't care about your fantasy team.

First of all, I dont own hernandez in any league and would have never drafted him at his ADP.Second, if hes healthy he should be playing regardless. Ignoring entirely that it makes no sense to not try and win every game as the Patriots benefit imo more than any other team in the NFL by getting a week off in the post season, which if they wanna do they are gonna have to step up and stay there.

I dont think the seahawks are gonna give the patriots as much as trouble as they have been giving the rest of the NFL, but if Hernandez is healthy, resting him makes no sense at all.

Why? If Edelman hadn't taken him out he'd probably be top 3 right now.

 

[Run It Up]

Why? If Edelman hadn't taken him out he'd probably be top 3 right now.

Because given the choice between Gronk in the 2nd or Hernandez in the 3rd im going to (and did) take Gronk everytime.

He's not healthy. He was limping 5 days ago. You don't go from limping to "NFL ready" in 12 days.

I haven't seen him limping, in fact all ive seen is him stretching with the team, but hes been working out with the team for two weeks now.

Next 3 games are the Seahawks, the Jets, and the Rams. A gimpy Hernandez isn't going to be the deciding factor in any of those games. Better to rest him now so that he can be 100% for Miami, Houston, San Francisco, and the playoffs.

If he is healthy, not playing in the Seahawks game is a mistake.

 

[therush]

Will be the #1PPR TE from weeks 8-16 and top 10 overall in PPR leagues.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Why? If Edelman hadn't taken him out he'd probably be top 3 right now.

Because given the choice between Gronk in the 2nd or Hernandez in the 3rd im going to (and did) take Gronk everytime.

He's not healthy. He was limping 5 days ago. You don't go from limping to "NFL ready" in 12 days.

I haven't seen him limping, in fact all ive seen is him stretching with the team, but hes been working out with the team for two weeks now.

Next 3 games are the Seahawks, the Jets, and the Rams. A gimpy Hernandez isn't going to be the deciding factor in any of those games. Better to rest him now so that he can be 100% for Miami, Houston, San Francisco, and the playoffs.

If he is healthy, not playing in the Seahawks game is a mistake.

Drafted in 7 leagues this year, didn't see Hernandez go any earlier than the 5th round in any of them. ADP was more than reasonable.

 

[Sea Duck]

I haven't seen him limping

 

[Penguin]

The Patriots will definitely need him week 9 when Gronkowski is on a bye.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The whole question of rest of year rankings for TE is interesting.

Heath Miller, I wish I could acquire. But he is ranked below Hernandez.

Graham looks a little dinged up but I'd have to think he will be better after the bye.

Lot of value in TEs this year of course but last 3 games it's been a bit of a mish mash.

targets per team game last 3:

Pettigrew

Gonz

Witten

Tamme

Olsen

Miller

Fasano

Graham

Gronk

Points 0.5 PPR last 3:

Gonz

Daniels

Olsen

Cook

Davis

Gresham

Rudolph

Davis

Gresham

Usually I go heavy for WRs first 3 weeks, this year apparently it should have been TEs.

Targets, Gates has gone 8, 7, 3, 7. The 7-8 target range is good. The 3-4 catches he has been getting are not.

Ony 3 red zone chances for Gates in 4 games, one each in 3 different games. Meachem's had 2 (last week), Royal's had 2 the week before, and then Rosario in his big game, otherwise that's it for RZ chances for WRs & TEs for SD.

 

[mbuehner]

There's a reason its called the Early Top 250+. He's at 11 now, and depending on if/how he practices he should rise. On the other hand if he was ranked 5th and missed another three games I dont suppose you would be thrilled either.

 

[Jimbo Slice]

Any word on if he practiced today? I can't find anything

 

[jackdubl]

Posting subscriber content would not be cool if this was my site.

Point me to the super-secret subrcribers-only forum where we can discuss this stuff, please.

 

[Johnny Rock]

Things like this are why I believe the Top 250 Forward could be improved with minimal effort by revealing the breakdowns per week. Show us what FBG sees as Avg Pts per week as well as which weeks are projected zeros.

If his remaining expected points are based on less games, it should be presented that way.

 

[Rovers]

Obviously, FBG does not put much in the way of resources into there rest of year top 200 rankings. Brian Cushing is still there for instance and this new ranking came out last night. While Kerley isn't some stud WR, he is likely going to be the Jets WR1 but has a WR38 ranking. One glaring mistake and some other rather dubious rankings does make one question the value of even using this as a feature.

On the flip side, the weekly rankings, while subjective, are much more reliable.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Obviously, FBG does not put much in the way of resources into there rest of year top 200 rankings. Brian Cushing is still there for instance and this new ranking came out last night. While Kerley isn't some stud WR, he is likely going to be the Jets WR1 but has a WR38 ranking. One glaring mistake and some other rather dubious rankings does make one question the value of even using this as a feature. On the flip side, the weekly rankings, while subjective, are much more reliable.

Good catch. I'm sure when by update his all jets wrs will be out of the top 40.

 

[Run It Up]

Obviously, FBG does not put much in the way of resources into there rest of year top 200 rankings. Brian Cushing is still there for instance and this new ranking came out last night. While Kerley isn't some stud WR, he is likely going to be the Jets WR1 but has a WR38 ranking. One glaring mistake and some other rather dubious rankings does make one question the value of even using this as a feature. On the flip side, the weekly rankings, while subjective, are much more reliable.

Good catch. I'm sure when by update his all jets wrs will be out of the top 40.

I was gonna say pretty much the same thing.Jets are a mess.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Because they are factoring in low performances for this week, and most likely next week as well as he's coming off of an injury.

Even then, he has to outscore guys like Miller, Pettigrew, Davis, Bennett? Correct?

basically your clue to stop reading that useless crap

What was his TE ranking before his injury smart guy?Besides, is there nayone more injury prone than Hernandez? If he compensates for injuries he's going to get nagging injuries. He doesn't play well with injuries. There are lots of good TE's who are playing. there are lots of variables that are considered by people smarter than you.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Obviously, FBG does not put much in the way of resources into there rest of year top 200 rankings. Brian Cushing is still there for instance and this new ranking came out last night. While Kerley isn't some stud WR, he is likely going to be the Jets WR1 but has a WR38 ranking. One glaring mistake and some other rather dubious rankings does make one question the value of even using this as a feature. On the flip side, the weekly rankings, while subjective, are much more reliable.

Do you really believe Kerley is better than a WR3 going forward?

 

[Shawn]

if he plays this week he plays the toughest defense in the league. you tell me how that is an easy game.

 

[GoBirds]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000079919/article/aaron-hernandez-reportedly-expected-play-for-patriots?module=HP11_headline_stack

 

[Rovers]

Obviously, FBG does not put much in the way of resources into there rest of year top 200 rankings. Brian Cushing is still there for instance and this new ranking came out last night. While Kerley isn't some stud WR, he is likely going to be the Jets WR1 but has a WR38 ranking. One glaring mistake and some other rather dubious rankings does make one question the value of even using this as a feature. On the flip side, the weekly rankings, while subjective, are much more reliable.

Do you really believe Kerley is better than a WR3 going forward?

I think he will be a WR2 to WR3 each week from here out. The Jets will be forced to throw often playing from behind, and there really isn't another reciever on the team that Sanchez can go to with any consistancy. I forecasted Kerley for 9 targets and 82 yards last week with a chance of a TD. He got 9 targets, 92 yards and no TD. I think he will get anywhere from 6 to 12 targets a game. Mix in a few TD's here and there.I forgot to add a couple of tidbits... Sanchez's completion % sucks... I think it's sub 50%. Kerley has a 65% comp/target number, and that goes along with a 19 YPC. Now consider just how bad the rest of the passing offense is. Even dump offs aren't working which is where a lot of QB's get that comp % up to 60. Sometimes even a bad QB can click with a given reciever. Maybe the low ranking is because FBG seems to have bought into the "Tebow will start" hype. Ain't gonna happen unless Sanchez gets hurt. OK, 3 losses in a row could do it too, but the Jets aren't quite the doormats people think they are. They could still win 7 games.