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Aaron Hernandez (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KeithKow
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The Saints have a plethora of options in the passing game - so what if none of them are also TEs, necessarily (although Brees always liked Dave Thomas as well).
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Why?
gronk had 16 rz targets in 16 games last yr. hernandez had 12 in 14. perception seems way overblown.
Wild Young Billy
A Crazy Cat
Matt Waldman on twitter today..... "Think of Gronkowski is a promising TE. Think of Hernandez as a WR3 with WR2 upside."
Run It Up
Footballguy
Said "to" meant "ahead"I thought I was in the minority of thinking that Welker was the clear #1 in NE. Im a jackass
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Boston
Footballguy
I love both TE's and in the offseason I was firmly in the Gronk camp...yet, watching Hernandez this offseason he seems to have taken things to another level...just watching him out there he seems to have an extra gear and appears more confident...maybe it's an overreaction to pre-season (wouldn't be the first time this mistake was made) but right now I'd rather have Hernandez than Gronk especially since he can probably be had later...that being said both TE's are going to be a big part of this offense and I don't see one pushing the other totally aside...they're both too talented...
Because Gronkowski is now their best blocking TE. In 2-TE sets Gronk will be asked to block, whereas last season Crumpler was asked to block.
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Hit the nail on the head.Why do you want a 2nd tier TE filling up a starting roster spot when you can basically have an extra WR? If I can't get Gates, Clark, Witten, Finley, or Davis then I wait and snag Hernandez.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I wouldn't play Ocho until he starts putting up respectable fantasy numbers . . . which may not be for quite awhile.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I am way to stubborn to do that, David. As long as he and Tom are saying the right things about his motivation and progress, 85 will be in my starting lineup. I'm a believer that when they get more time together, Chad will earn Tom's trust. Talent + Opportunity + Motivation. I still believe in Chad's talent, though I can tell you and a lot of others don't.But thank you for the warning message. I will monitor this situation closely and will be prepared to shift course if your warnings prove prescient. I at least have to give them a couple games together before giving up. And I'm thankful for your Hernandez insight. I picked him up and will use him to hedge my Ocho exposure.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Gronk supporters seem kind of desperate in here.
FunkyTeaParty
Footballguy
I have Hernandez in a dynasty and I am optimistic he will take a leap this year, but not so optimistic I didn't go out and trade Wayne and a pick for Witten.
Gronkowski is just too much of a looming presence for me to be able to trust Hernandez in a season I expect to win a title.
Gronkowski is just too much of a looming presence for me to be able to trust Hernandez in a season I expect to win a title.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Desperate because they favor the 16th TE off the board over the 17th TE off the board?I wouldnt draft either of these TEs as my starter in a 10 team league. The only league I did, I covered my bases by taking Jared Cook a few rounds later and Lance Kendricks with my last pick.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
I own Gronk in a dynasty. Took him in the 5th in our rookie draft when Hernandez went in the 3rd. Pretty happy with that value considering I wouldn't trade Gronk for Hernandez straight up. Could it be Hernandez supporters are overly enthusiastic?'Thunderlips said:
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I'd say he's still outside the Top 12, maybe around TE14, with Gronk still slightly ahead of him. It's just so difficult to predict how the Patriots will use their players. Even if a pattern develops early in the season, it could change by the time playoffs roll around.'Doughhead said:
LawFitz
Footballguy
They definitely seem more passionate and have provided a pretty compelling argument that both young TEs have top ten upside this season. Health, progression, underwhelming WRs and prior performance when both TEs were healthy are the big arguments for Hernandez. Size, strength and every down blocking ability favor Gronk.Both players are healthy, progressing NFL vets as of today, so an argument is that collectively they're going to not only steal NE pie share, but increase NE pie size.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
In 0 PPR leagues, Hernandez ranked 11th last year and missed two games. Both he and Gronk should be considered TE1s at this point.'Doughhead said:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I grabbed him as my TE2 tonight and to be honest I already had Witten who I snared in the 4th...only a 1o team league so I could watch 17 TEs come off the board and probably not blink too much but I took Hernanadez for one reason, UPSIDE!!! It just doesn't make sense to take Olsen, Celek, Heap after a stud at TE, so my advice is if you can swing it, take his guy as your TE2 and if he hits, you probably have a top5-10 TE, just my .02
I had not been able to get him prior to this, really happy I got him.
I had not been able to get him prior to this, really happy I got him.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Yes, I agree. Both are undervalued in that respect. But who would you start if you owned them both to start the year? Against the Dolphins on Monday Night? For now, I have Hernandez starting over Gronk in PPR (which my league is), but if it were 0 PPR, I'd roll with Gronk. And add to that...it's tough to bench your higher drafted TE when setting week 1 lineups. Sorry for the WDIS. I'll make that call. I just wish I had some better insight to their short term situation. I think with Belicheck, Hernandez & Gronk owners are going to have to roll the dice week to week.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Both Hern and Gronk are going to be up and down based on who New England is playing. In some games, Gronk will be asked to block more. In other games, the Patriots will use Hern to exploit weak linebackers and safeties. I agree that Hern is more valuable in PPR and Gronk in non-PPR based on TD potential.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Thanks for the reply. I'll assume you are a Pats homer. In the series with Miami, do the Pats typically go run heavy? (i.e., Gronk on the field blocking more), or do they go after the linebackers and safeties? (Hernandez exploiting mismatches). TIA.
VaTerp
Footballguy
I just picked Hernandez up off the wire in my 14 teamer with shallow rosters. Still surprised he was available. I was actually going to draft Mercedes Lewis but timed out and ended up with Greg Olsen, who I think has decent upside as well.
But I dropped Olsen for Hernandez this morning as I obviously have a lot more faith in Brady than Newton, even with Gronk and the other options. I have always been impressed with Hernandez athletic ability since his days as a Gator. Trying not to overreact to pre-season but he's looked like a complete monster who is putting it all together in his 2nd season.
But I dropped Olsen for Hernandez this morning as I obviously have a lot more faith in Brady than Newton, even with Gronk and the other options. I have always been impressed with Hernandez athletic ability since his days as a Gator. Trying not to overreact to pre-season but he's looked like a complete monster who is putting it all together in his 2nd season.
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ponchsox
Footballguy
Last year the Patriots smoked Miami in both games. Hern missed the second game and Gronk had 109 receiving yards. Moss was on the team in the first game and I don't remember either being a big factor. I think they could both have a decent game Monday night. The Patriots love to spread it around against Miami and run the ball late when they are ahead.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Bob Henry
Footballguy
I agree with most of this. As for the notion that Graham doesn't have Gronk taking away red zone targets. What about Lance Moore? Or the distinct possibility that Drew Brees throws fewer TDs with the presence of Mark Ingram, who has a real affinity for crossing the goal-line. Graham and Hernandez are both dynamic players. Both players present unique mismatches that will cause defenses problems. I have fluctuated my own TE rankings after the elite guys like Gates, Witten, Clark, Finley and V. Davis. I would rather roll the dice on either Graham, Hernandez or Gronk in that next tier than go with (IMO) more dicey options like Marcedes Lewis, Owen Daniels, Tony Gonzalez or Kellen Winslow.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
No ....because most of the Hernandez supporters in the thread seem to also be saying what a talent Gronk is...they seem to be saying that Gronk will still get his while Hernandez will be a real WR/TE mismatch for the Pats.I wish people would be more objective instead of trying to pimp their own rationalizations and projections.
griff321
Footballguy
Exactly.I see Belichick going nuts with Hernandez as a H-back. That old TE has something up his sleeve and the nfl is just starting to get it while fans lag behind.What rookie isn't inconsistent? As I posted in another thread in 08 and 09 the patriots averaged 363 snaps in the two TE set and in 2010 they ran 631 plays out of a two TE set.
Run It Up
Footballguy
You say that Hernandez supporters are suggesting that Gronk will "get his" but continue to qualify it by saying Hernandez is the better mismatch. When if you watched the Pats play last season the difference between the two are negligible. I would argue that Gronkowski is a better pass catcher and Hernandez is a better route runner (ignoring completely that Gronkowski is the better blocker), but as far as mismatches go its simply exaggeration to say one is better than the other. If he even is Aaron is negligibly quicker than Gronkowski on top of that his top end speed is also too close to merit it as an advantage but physically he is 4 inches shorter than Gronkowski and his reach is 2 inches shorter. Everyone is correct to assume that even though Gronkowski will automatically see more snaps means that a lot of those will be spent on blocking assignments, but the fact that he is even on the field is a potential play for fantasy football. Gronkowski saw 55% more snaps than Aaron last year, even though for a couple of games Aaron was hurt I still expect Gronks number of snaps to increase (so will Aarons) now that Crumpler is gone and the Pats have no confidence in Lee Smith, so take Gronkowski 750-someodd snaps and figure that he will be the recipient of the majority of Crumplers 550-someodd snaps and that leaves Aaron with his almost 500 snaps+whats left of crumplers.
Its not just pandering its looking at the available information and making an informed prediction, people that look at Aaron Hernandez and then look at Rob Gronkowski and say "man that one guy looks like he has a way more atheletic figure" are fooling themselves, they are simply ignorant of Gronkowski's ability.
I too would love to see this, the best ive seen from them so far is they did a podcast for the Patriots (like they do with all the teams) and they kinda just skimmed over the issue, should be able to find it on these forums.
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Run It Up,
Give me a break, dude. Gronk is an all right tight end. I mean, his size is his biggest advantage. He's not fast or quick, he may block well, I'm not sure. When Aaron gets the ball in his hands, he's elusive and unique. He still carries tight end size but has the quicks of a wide receiver. That's what makes him a weapon. It's possible Gronk outscores him because he catches ten 5 yard touchdowns, but I'd put my stock in Hernandez. He's the better player.
Give me a break, dude. Gronk is an all right tight end. I mean, his size is his biggest advantage. He's not fast or quick, he may block well, I'm not sure. When Aaron gets the ball in his hands, he's elusive and unique. He still carries tight end size but has the quicks of a wide receiver. That's what makes him a weapon. It's possible Gronk outscores him because he catches ten 5 yard touchdowns, but I'd put my stock in Hernandez. He's the better player.
Run It Up
Footballguy
This is what im talking about, you clearly dont know what you are talking about.He isnt fast, there isnt anything unique about either of these players (except for Gronkowski's build), hes near the middle of the field in regards to speed comparably to TEs - and in comparison to WRs he isnt even on the board. Hes not gonna break away from a LB any more often than Gronkowski. I dont know Aaron or Gronkowskis 20 yd times, im curious how fast they both get off the line, I know for a fact Gronk gets off the line quite fast, wouldnt be surprised at all if Aaron was quicker but like I said, their top end speed is close enough to consider the difference negligible.Even in college Gronk was the superior athelete and TE.EDIT: Was able to find both of their 20 and 10 yard dash times, not surprised at all still a negligible difference.Gronk: 40- 4.65 20- 2.68 10- 1.58Aaron: 40- 4.58 20- 2.71 10- 1.65
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It is, of course, impossible to predict what Belichick will do with any certainty. However, I do think that Gronkowski is being undervalued by many. He had a spectacular rookie season, perhaps one of the greatest of all time for a first year TE. He is more of a mismatch nightmare than Hernandez is; Gronkowski is huge and nearly as fast as Hernandez (I believe their respective 40 times were 4.58 and 4.65).
While Hernandez can be likened to a big WR, with not great speed, Gronkowski's size/speed combo are extraordinary. When you compare their hands- Hernandez has suspect hands, while Gronk catches everything- you begin to understand which one is a stud. I understand why Belichick may use them both quite a bit, but imho Gronkowski is the clear cut #1 TE and should be in for a monster season.
In standard scoring leagues, Hernandez will be a solid #2 TE, while Gronk may very well be the #1 ranked player at his position. But then again, this is Belichick, so who really knows....
While Hernandez can be likened to a big WR, with not great speed, Gronkowski's size/speed combo are extraordinary. When you compare their hands- Hernandez has suspect hands, while Gronk catches everything- you begin to understand which one is a stud. I understand why Belichick may use them both quite a bit, but imho Gronkowski is the clear cut #1 TE and should be in for a monster season.
In standard scoring leagues, Hernandez will be a solid #2 TE, while Gronk may very well be the #1 ranked player at his position. But then again, this is Belichick, so who really knows....
SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
Looks like Yudkin may have been a little low with his 70/900/5 projection for Mr. Hernandez. With only Ocho Cinco in the mix to reduce his targets from here on out, are we looking at a bona-fide top 10 fantasy TE here? I saw somewhere that Hernandez was on the field for something like 80% of the Pats offensive snaps on Monday night. If that continues, Hernandez could push for top 5 fantasy TE numbers!
I know that one game a season doesn't make, but after seeing Hernandez's impressive preseason carry over into game 1 of the regular season, he sure seems to be in line for a monster year, and a "steal of the draft" nomination. Many of us picked him up very late in our drafts.
So to those of you who grabbed him late to backup the likes of Gates, Finley, Witten..are you selling high on Hernandez, or holding? In a flex league where you can start 2 TE's, I would consider him a hold.
I know that one game a season doesn't make, but after seeing Hernandez's impressive preseason carry over into game 1 of the regular season, he sure seems to be in line for a monster year, and a "steal of the draft" nomination. Many of us picked him up very late in our drafts.
So to those of you who grabbed him late to backup the likes of Gates, Finley, Witten..are you selling high on Hernandez, or holding? In a flex league where you can start 2 TE's, I would consider him a hold.
Crazy Tony
Footballguy
Saw similar stat: something like
Ocho 12 plays
AH 66 plays
GRONK 21 plays
If AH is in on 5 x the # of plays as GRONK I'd say that's pretty good chance he'll do better.
BOTH are good TEs. I own AH...who brings a totally different skill set to the table than Gronkowksi. I don't get any fantasy points for run blocking.
Rookie scouting report from 2010 FBGs. has Hernandez was #1 overall. Then GRONK was #5.
AH was TOP route runner, Separation from LOS,Balance, Elusivenes... Gronkowski doesn't strike me as the elusive type.
Some poster said that "Gronkowski doesn't have to jump to catch the ball b/c he's a foot taller than the defender.."
That's stupid. At 6'6 265 he can definitely use is body to his advantage but you don't think a guy 5'10 or 6'0 w/ a 40"+ vertical jump will be able to get a hand on it? E. Berry had a 43in vertical before he was injured. He's 6' think he could bat it down? I do.
I'm 6'5 200+ with a very mediocre vertical jump. I out rebounded guys up to 7'1...they lacked desire. I'm sure a DB has desire to jump and swat a ball down. It sucks as a center to get swatted by a short player...if you're not jumping for the ball you're begging to look foolish.
There are different types of SPEED. Assume both are about the same speed AH slightly faster.
Seems like GRONK has initial good first step for his size.
AH has pretty good footwork. he can string together multiple moves that many 6'1 245lbs guys can't.
In the GREAT Debate of GRONKOWSKI over AHERNADEZ....
I have say
HERNANDEZ 1 GRONKOWSKI 0.
Week 2 could be different. I like AH's odds.
Ocho 12 plays
AH 66 plays
GRONK 21 plays
If AH is in on 5 x the # of plays as GRONK I'd say that's pretty good chance he'll do better.
BOTH are good TEs. I own AH...who brings a totally different skill set to the table than Gronkowksi. I don't get any fantasy points for run blocking.
Rookie scouting report from 2010 FBGs. has Hernandez was #1 overall. Then GRONK was #5.
AH was TOP route runner, Separation from LOS,Balance, Elusivenes... Gronkowski doesn't strike me as the elusive type.
Some poster said that "Gronkowski doesn't have to jump to catch the ball b/c he's a foot taller than the defender.."
That's stupid. At 6'6 265 he can definitely use is body to his advantage but you don't think a guy 5'10 or 6'0 w/ a 40"+ vertical jump will be able to get a hand on it? E. Berry had a 43in vertical before he was injured. He's 6' think he could bat it down? I do.
I'm 6'5 200+ with a very mediocre vertical jump. I out rebounded guys up to 7'1...they lacked desire. I'm sure a DB has desire to jump and swat a ball down. It sucks as a center to get swatted by a short player...if you're not jumping for the ball you're begging to look foolish.
There are different types of SPEED. Assume both are about the same speed AH slightly faster.
Seems like GRONK has initial good first step for his size.
AH has pretty good footwork. he can string together multiple moves that many 6'1 245lbs guys can't.
In the GREAT Debate of GRONKOWSKI over AHERNADEZ....
I have say
HERNANDEZ 1 GRONKOWSKI 0.
Week 2 could be different. I like AH's odds.
LawFitz
Footballguy
You sure you have the right Gronk?
Ladsud
Footballguy
Gronk was in on 75sh plays, give or take a few. His big bro mighta been in on the 21 plays.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12539/dan-gronkowski
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12539/dan-gronkowski
griff321
Footballguy
No you didn't screw up! Gronk is like a better Jason Witten just wait and see. Just because he blocks more doesn't mean he won't be abusing Bob Sanders' inconsistencies in coverage. Bobo cheats way too much against the run and the Pats are going to beat up on him all day. Get it out of your head that only one TE can put up relevant fantasy numbers per team.
griff321
Footballguy
Two very different talents and your breakdown is ridiculous. Ever hear of using size to create separation, because that's what Gronk does with amazing regularity. Then throw in his freakishly good hands for someone as big as he is and he's a nightmare. Think of the defender to his back and you see why jumping and speed are kinda a moot point. The point is you don't need speed or jumping ability when you can us a massive body as a wall between the defender and his hands. Combine all that with a two TE set in a no huddle and it is a fking wrecking ball. When this team gets executing and stops with the stupid pre-snap penalty BS they're going to give even elite defenses fits. I can't wait to see how it works against the Jets. It's tough to really judge the Miami D with the lockout and many Ds looking a bit behind, but they're not a bad D unit talent wise and the Patriots made them look like chumps.'Crazy Tony said:
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Just to clear up any possible confusion, Rob Gronkowski had 75 snaps & Hernandez had 66.
Regardless of the stats in game 1, I believe Gronkowski is a virtual lock for a huge season. It'll be interesting to see how much of the pie Hernandez can get. Gronkowski simply isn't as affected by certain dynamics like Hernandez (gameplans, weather, etc.). In short, Gronkowski will get more chances & is a superior option in the RZ.
Hernandez is a quality FF TE, but Gronkowski will outproduce him, IMO (& it might not be real close).
Regardless of the stats in game 1, I believe Gronkowski is a virtual lock for a huge season. It'll be interesting to see how much of the pie Hernandez can get. Gronkowski simply isn't as affected by certain dynamics like Hernandez (gameplans, weather, etc.). In short, Gronkowski will get more chances & is a superior option in the RZ.
Hernandez is a quality FF TE, but Gronkowski will outproduce him, IMO (& it might not be real close).
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griff321
Footballguy
Those two points alone show how little you know about the Patriots. Gronk is a superior red zone target though.Anyone else notice how the people that just don't get it beat the talent horse to death?
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Tack on the 40 yard bomb he dragged on a streak route that got called back because Ocho was on the line... and he has more yards and the same amount of receptions on 1 less target. Aaron was 10 targets for 8 catches, Gronk was 8 for 7 (9 for 8 if you count the penalty)Looking like I was wrong about Chad, not giving up on him yet, but its looking like Gronk and Aaron are the legit 2a 2b targets, if they can continue to run this machine like they did Monday (75% of plays are two TE sets, never dragging there best rb off the field - Danny) there is no doubt for me that they will win the SB this year, bold statement in week 1 in the NFL.
griff321
Footballguy
Pretty sure I saw at least a few plays run out of the no huddle with three WRs and two TEs out of the gun. Then when Brady wants additional protection he simply slides Hernandez or Gronk over behind the tackle or just outside.Belichick will not tolerate pre-snap procedure penalties, so Ocho really needs to get to work. They seemed like the only thing that really hurt the pats O.
EDIT: The bunch formation that usually results is just so sick good. It seems unstoppable and then they can motion if Brady sees something he doesn't like.
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