Actual strategy question (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Okay, so I admit that the following strategy question comes from a situation I have in one of my leagues. HOWEVER, it is an actual strategy question nonetheless, so it does not belong in the ACF. And since I am curious what everyone's opinions are - I will make no mention of my players.

In one league I am 1-4, but have the 2nd most points in the league. The final wild card spot is given to the team with the most points that is not already among the teams in the playoffs based on record.

Since catching up based on record is already quite a climb at 1-4, is there a different approach when just trying to accumulate a ton of points?

Or is it the exact same as trying to get a win since each week you are putting forward your team that you believe will get the most possible points?

Hope all that made some sense.

 

[dawgtrails]

Okay, so I admit that the following strategy question comes from a situation I have in one of my leagues. HOWEVER, it is an actual strategy question nonetheless, so it does not belong in the ACF. And since I am curious what everyone's opinions are - I will make no mention of my players.In one league I am 1-4, but have the 2nd most points in the league. The final wild card spot is given to the team with the most points that is not already among the teams in the playoffs based on record.Since catching up based on record is already quite a climb at 1-4, is there a different approach when just trying to accumulate a ton of points?Or is it the exact same as trying to get a win since each week you are putting forward your team that you believe will get the most possible points?Hope all that made some sense.

It does make sense.Sometimes, when you are matched up against a team, one strategy is to start the WR of your opponents QB. So as to counteract any big points that QB may get. Now, that may not be a sound strategy, but it is somewhat debateable.When trying to simply get the most points, dont even look at who your opponent is starting, it has no bearing.

 

[Marc Levin]

Or is it the exact same as trying to get a win since each week you are putting forward your team that you believe will get the most possible points?

Bingo.They are one and the same thing.We have a similar rule - it is to encourage people with decent teams butr poor records to continue fielding their bestteam possible an dnot become absentee owners.

 

[John Mamula]

It should be the same, although many people treat it differently. Each week I try to accumulate the most points completely ignoring who my opponent has on their roster or playing other types of matchups.

Don't get cute. Play your best players every week regardless of how hard their opposing defense seems to be. It sounds overly simple, and it really is. Don't make the starting lineup process be harder than it needs to be.

If you only have one PK or DT plan two weeks ahead to get your bye week sub based on a matchup (I did this in week 5 with San Fran subbing in for Atlanta and it worked out very well).

Your goal should always be to score the most points and let the wins and losses fall out where they do. That typically means starting your higher drafted players. You will be more successful this way than not.

Of course now that we are going into week 6 someone like a Bernard Berrian who likely got picked up on the WW is a must start every week.

We're far enough into the season to start to see who is performing and who will fall below expectations.

 

[JuniorNB]

To win a head to head match, you simply pick the guys who you think will score the most points. Just keep doing that each week. If you make the best decisions each week, the points will add up.

Some people say that they start different guys based on their head to head matchup that particular week. In other words, if they are playing a very beatable team, they put in a conservative, steady lineup. But if they're playing a powerhouse who scores a lot of points every week, they say they will gamble with high risk/high reward-type players.

I have never subscribed to this theory, however. Who I'm playing never factors in to who I start. I'm trying to "guess" who will score the most every week.

 

[Duckboy]

Agreed with the above that they should be the same - always start who you think will get the most points.

Only question in my mind might be toward the end of the year, if you need to make up points and have a situation with a strong player going late who is listed as questionable (see Westbrook lately as an example). If you need the points to make it, it could be necessary to take the chance on the zero (see Westy Week 4) to have a chance at good numbers (see Westy Week 5).

 

[my man otis]

The only thing I can think of where they wouldn't be one in the same is starting a QB and 1 or more WRs from the same team in hopes they have a huge game - you'd get double points technically from the passing and receiving ends.

Guess it would only be different from fielding your best lineup if you put in a lesser WR to match your starter rather than a stud - for example if you've got Bulger you start Bruce instead of someone like Wayne. Wayne is expected to be better but you'd get a good boost to your points if Bulget and Bruce hook up for a huge week.

Don't know if this is a good theory but I've done it before if my lineup stinks and i'm going up against a really good FF team that week.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Don't overthink this.

Is there some theoretical situation in which playing to get the point points leads to different actions than playing to win each week?

Sure.

Would such a situation arise in more than 0.01% of cases?

Nope.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Suppose your last position is a flex that has to be either a PK or Def.

Suppose that in your league's scoring system, PKs generally score between 5-7 points, with an average of 6.

Suppose further that in your league's scoring system, Defenses generally score between -20 and +20 points with an average of 0.

Scenario A. You are facing a very good team this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be down by 12 points.

Scenario B. You are facing a mediocre opponent this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be up by a point.

In scenario A your flex should be a defense if you are concerned with W-L record, while it should be a PK if you are concerned with total points.

In scenario B, your flex should be a PK in either case.

 

[stevegamer]

Suppose your last position is a flex that has to be either a PK or Def.

Suppose that in your league's scoring system, PKs generally score between 5-7 points, with an average of 6.

Suppose further that in your league's scoring system, Defenses generally score between -20 and +20 points with an average of 0.

Scenario A. You are facing a very good team this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be down by 12 points.

Scenario B. You are facing a mediocre opponent this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be up by a point.

In scenario A your flex should be a defense if you are concerned with W-L record, while it should be a PK if you are concerned with total points.

In scenario B, your flex should be a PK in either case.

This is an excellent point. If your league has a flex spot which is very easy to fill with a wide range of talent, you are free to figure out who is going to score how well.Another option is to try and concentrate on one bye week via trades, as you know you're goign for total points. helping other teams spread out their byes should do well for you.

Also don't be afraid to make a move with any team. A team doing well - if they are running away in a division, they are likely to make the playoffs anyway - so by you improving both your team and theirs, it's a win-win. They can more likely beat your opponents, which might help you move up in the standings. Deals with teams you've already faced H2H are good for the same reason.

 

[richn]

Don't we all try to accumulate the most points possible every week, and hope it results in a win????? You guys are over analyzing a bit.

 

[my man otis]

Suppose your last position is a flex that has to be either a PK or Def.

Suppose that in your league's scoring system, PKs generally score between 5-7 points, with an average of 6.

Suppose further that in your league's scoring system, Defenses generally score between -20 and +20 points with an average of 0.

Scenario A. You are facing a very good team this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be down by 12 points.

Scenario B. You are facing a mediocre opponent this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be up by a point.

In scenario A your flex should be a defense if you are concerned with W-L record, while it should be a PK if you are concerned with total points.

In scenario B, your flex should be a PK in either case.

If you are concerned w/ getting the most points wouldn't you want a defense, with the potential to go +20? I realize the expected return of a PK > D but with a bad record and only points to be concerned about I'd shoot for the moon.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Take the highest expected value. Even in MT's scenario above.

With ten weeks left in the season you'd want the sure 50-70 points from the PKs rather than a fairly small chance of hitting three more +20s than -20s with the Ds.

If you came down to ONE week and needed the points, it might make sense to start the lower expected value with the higher variance. But this far out, just score points and hope for the best.

 

[stevegamer]

Suppose your last position is a flex that has to be either a PK or Def.

Suppose that in your league's scoring system, PKs generally score between 5-7 points, with an average of 6.

Suppose further that in your league's scoring system, Defenses generally score between -20 and +20 points with an average of 0.

Scenario A. You are facing a very good team this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be down by 12 points.

Scenario B. You are facing a mediocre opponent this week. Without counting your flex position, you expect to be up by a point.

In scenario A your flex should be a defense if you are concerned with W-L record, while it should be a PK if you are concerned with total points.

In scenario B, your flex should be a PK in either case.

If you are concerned w/ getting the most points wouldn't you want a defense, with the potential to go +20? I realize the expected return of a PK > D but with a bad record and only points to be concerned about I'd shoot for the moon.

Depends on the distribution of the defensive scoring. I'd try to play D matchups a bunch with an uber-flex and try and get a lot out of them if I needed to make up ground. If I'm in front, I play it closer to the vest, and use kickers more, especially if they don't give negative points.

 

[(HULK)]

I started 0-6 last year and made the playoffs at 8-6.

Don't give up hope yet.