AD officially reaches the second round (1 Viewer)

[tommyGunZ]

Once again, i'm not disputing AD's talent or possible future production. I'm talking about THIS yr, and to me his current ADP represents his hype more than his situation. The comparison of Rudi and SJ isn't really a fair one since last yr SJ was slated to be the primary back. If we were talking about a 6th or 7th round pick here then I wouldnt really be disagreeing with you, but a 4th rounder to me seems a little steep considering what needs to happen before AD proves to be value at that point in the draft. P.S-Is the MIKL up and running this yr or what?

The only concern is Chester Taylor. If Taylor wasn't in Minn, AD would be a late 1st rounder.By week 6, Taylor will be an afterthought.

 

[jurb26]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

 

[PatsWillWin]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

lol you think Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green have less risk and more upside than Adrian Peterson?I can't think of a RB who has less upside than Jamal Lewis. Ahman Green had a nice season last year but is now on Houston and was on the injury list every other week last season.

I'm not buying AD in the 2nd round, but there's no way I would take Green/Lewis ahead of him.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Once again, i'm not disputing AD's talent or possible future production. I'm talking about THIS yr, and to me his current ADP represents his hype more than his situation. The comparison of Rudi and SJ isn't really a fair one since last yr SJ was slated to be the primary back. If we were talking about a 6th or 7th round pick here then I wouldnt really be disagreeing with you, but a 4th rounder to me seems a little steep considering what needs to happen before AD proves to be value at that point in the draft. P.S-Is the MIKL up and running this yr or what?

The only concern is Chester Taylor. If Taylor wasn't in Minn, AD would be a late 1st rounder.By week 6, Taylor will be an afterthought.

It seems to me, based on a very limited sample size in pre-season, that the Vikes are going to split carries between the two, with ADP getting most of the work on 1st and 2nd down, and Taylor playing most 3rd downs. It does look like ADP will be the goal-line back, which is where he really gets most of his value.

 

[Biabreakable]

Oh I know these guys are talking about redraft. 3rd or 4th round seems reasonable. That is where the good rookie RB have been taken traditionaly for a long time now. It is just that recent years have not had rookie RB produce very well before last year. That trend continues to make people wary of drafting a rookie early even though the trend was broken last year.Just felt your comment was worth responding to from a dynasty perspective as people are still catching up to AD's value there just as they are in redraft here.2nd round would probobly be too high for me to consider AD. 3rd round I was looking at him in recent draft but passed for solid WR. 4th round.. I think I should have taken him over Mark Clayton but I had Clayton ranked higher than him in my predraft. Kind of regret that.

Clayton has been going in the 7th/8th round, and that's in PPR leagues. He went 8.12 & 7.07 in the two PPR drafts I was in today

16 team league 1PPR for WR 0PPR for RB. Total points scoring including playoff stats. Clayton is a playoff likely WR.Clayton had 73 combined receptions in 2006 including playoffs. I have Clayton getting 85 receptions in 2007 pretty easily as the #1 Ravens WR even if only one playoff game.85 receptions is almost equal to 14 TD from a RB. 17 WR in 2006 had 80+ receptions. 14 WR in 2005 had 80+ receptions. 15 WR had 80+ receptions. I had Clayton as the last WR in this tier of WR likely to get 80+ receptions. I also expect him to get 6-10 TD on top of that and over 1000 yards based on his 14 YPC.I was drafting with sharks and do not think ADP reflects this league well.That being said I maybe should have had AD ranked higher than Mark Clayton and could have had a better draft in this league if I had gotten him and still got Caddy in round 5.WR drafted in Claytons range were:4.02 50. Construxboy Ward, Hines PIT WR Tue Aug 7 11:17:07 a.m. ET 2007 Wanted Boldin 4.05 53. Captain Hook Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR Tue Aug 7 12:44:26 p.m. ET 2007 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.07 55. Fiddles Burress, Plaxico NYG WR Tue Aug 7 1:51:03 p.m. ET 2007 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.08 56. Biabreakable Clayton, Mark BAL WR Tue Aug 7 1:51:03 p.m. ET 2007 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.10 58. nittanylion Moss, Santana WAS WR Tue Aug 7 4:43:21 p.m. ET 2007 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List 4.14 62. CalBear Branch, Deion SEA WR Tue Aug 7 5:55:20 p.m. ET 2007 4.15 63. D Leo Brown, Reggie PHI WR Tue Aug 7 6:37:58 p.m. ET 2007 5.01 65. Jiggyonthehut Chambers, Chris MIA WR Tue Aug 7 7:10:05 p.m. ET 2007 5.02 66. D Leo Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR Tue Aug 7 7:31:48 p.m. ET 2007 5.07 71. nittanylion Edwards, Braylon CLE WR Wed Aug 8 12:25:43 a.m. ET 2007 5.13 77. Old Milwaukee Jackson, Darrell SFO WR I prefer Clayton to all of these WR. Pickings got slimmer after this group as well and I would have been looking at WR such as Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis, Santonio Holmes, Troy Williamson and Matt Jones as my WR 3 in a start 5-6 WR league.An unconventional league and my regrets are not huge.. but like I said maybe I would have prefered to get AD over Clayton there. If I did go RB I think it would have been even less likely for Caddy to still be there for me in the 5th round as other drafters were targeting RBs in that range.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

 

[thehornet]

everyone keeps saying that you need to handcuff AP with Cheser. This is 100% not true. They are going to split carries therefore you are going to have the same decision every single week until AP finally takes over for good.

Handcuffing pertains to guys like Turner, Betts, Faulk, Bennett. Guys who will not play but need to be locked up to protect your stud everydown back.

I have Norwood and I am definately NOT drafting Warrick Dunn because he really isnt a handcuff type player.

 

[Justloveit]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

Define "huge numbers", im curious as to what sort of numbers you're talking here. P.S-DD didn't do too badly behind that poor line with a poor QB and a less experienced AJ.

 

[comfortably numb]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

I agree

 

[tamales]

everyone keeps saying that you need to handcuff AP with Cheser. This is 100% not true. They are going to split carries therefore you are going to have the same decision every single week until AP finally takes over for good. Handcuffing pertains to guys like Turner, Betts, Faulk, Bennett. Guys who will not play but need to be locked up to protect your stud everydown back.I have Norwood and I am definately NOT drafting Warrick Dunn because he really isnt a handcuff type player.

But if one of them gets hurt then you have a stud RB. Think of 2 years ago when Holmes and LJ were basically a RBBC. Both were worthy of starting. Then Holmes got hurt and LJ became a stud.

 

[thehornet]

everyone keeps saying that you need to handcuff AP with Cheser. This is 100% not true. They are going to split carries therefore you are going to have the same decision every single week until AP finally takes over for good. Handcuffing pertains to guys like Turner, Betts, Faulk, Bennett. Guys who will not play but need to be locked up to protect your stud everydown back.I have Norwood and I am definately NOT drafting Warrick Dunn because he really isnt a handcuff type player.

But if one of them gets hurt then you have a stud RB. Think of 2 years ago when Holmes and LJ were basically a RBBC. Both were worthy of starting. Then Holmes got hurt and LJ became a stud.

true, and that was also an extreme situation. not many handcuffs have LJ's ability. especially everyone i listed above.

 

[(HULK)]

There is an often repeated maxim you'll hear from the staff around here and I find it very true, "You can't win your league in the first few rounds of a draft, but you can lose it."

I'm sorry, but this is one of the biggest myths in fantasy football. It's really just some cool sounding proverb that someone invented without any real statistical backdrop and people like the sound of it and roll with it without really giving it any thought. A good pick in the early rounds can help you just as much as a bad pick in the early rounds can hurt you.This argument came up a few years back with the Priest/LJ vs. LT debate, but I'll go last year since that's more in people's head. This same kind of thing came up last year with the debate about the number 7-8 with Rudi vs. Sjax. Rudi was the safe guy, Sjax the upside guy. We heard it from everyone...."you can't win your league in the 1st round...but you can lose it".In the end, Rudi did exactly what everyone thought he would and put up a nice safe 1500/12. Sjax beat him out by a solid 800 yards and 4 touchdowns, or 104 fantasy points.To put that in perspective, we can take a 1st round bust like Edgerrin James that many people were screaming "lost" them the league and Rudi outscored him by 100 yards and 6 touchdowns, or 46 fantasy points.Now obviously no one player can "actually" win or lose you your league. You can draft Ryan Leaf in the 1st round and win your league, just like you can get LT 12th overall and lose. But what we're really talking about is guys putting you at a significant disadvantage vs. guys putting you at a significant advantage.That said, my point is how can we say that a guy losing you 46 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at a bigger disadvantage than a guy gaining you 104 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at an advantage?To lose as many points from drafting the bust instead of Rudi as you gained from drafting Sjax instead you would've had to take a guy that went for 700yards and 8 TDs. You could've taken Warrick Dunn in the 1st round and still come out ahead of those numbers. To say it again, taking Sjax over Rudi in the first round gained you more points last year than taking Warrick Dunn over Rudi in the 1st round would have lost you.But what makes this worse is that you're trying to apply it to the FIRST FOUR ROUNDS? If that's the case, then unless you have a top 3 pick AND are willing to take Rudi at 3rd overall you're coming out of the first 3 rounds with zero RBs, because after that there are no more "safe" RBs.

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

As I stated previously, AD could be a once in a generation RB

It's not a matter of "could be". I don't think anyone here is talking about "once in a generation" in terms of there NFL career here. When "once in decade" or "once in a generation" is brought up here people are talking about as a prospect. Nobody was saying those words with Ronnie Brown, or Cedric Benson, or William Green, or TJ Duckett, or Steven Jackson, or any of those other guys that have gone recently. I really only started following the draft in the mid-90's so I can't comment on Sanders/Bo Jackson, but I would guess that if you compiled a list of best prospects, or prospect rankings since that point that Bush and AD would be at the top. I do actually remember something like this from last year where each year a number grade was applied to prospects. It went back only the last 5 years or so but Bush's was quite a bit higher than everyone else's. I imagine AD would fall into that same category.

I consider SJax a very safe pick last year. He wasn't in an RBBC like AD is.

 

[tamales]

everyone keeps saying that you need to handcuff AP with Cheser. This is 100% not true. They are going to split carries therefore you are going to have the same decision every single week until AP finally takes over for good. Handcuffing pertains to guys like Turner, Betts, Faulk, Bennett. Guys who will not play but need to be locked up to protect your stud everydown back.I have Norwood and I am definately NOT drafting Warrick Dunn because he really isnt a handcuff type player.

But if one of them gets hurt then you have a stud RB. Think of 2 years ago when Holmes and LJ were basically a RBBC. Both were worthy of starting. Then Holmes got hurt and LJ became a stud.

true, and that was also an extreme situation. not many handcuffs have LJ's ability. especially everyone i listed above.

But AD DOES have that ability. So if Chester gets hurt you have a stud RB in AD. And if AD gets hurt you have a RB1 in Taylor (as he was last year).

 

[thehornet]

everyone keeps saying that you need to handcuff AP with Cheser. This is 100% not true. They are going to split carries therefore you are going to have the same decision every single week until AP finally takes over for good. Handcuffing pertains to guys like Turner, Betts, Faulk, Bennett. Guys who will not play but need to be locked up to protect your stud everydown back.I have Norwood and I am definately NOT drafting Warrick Dunn because he really isnt a handcuff type player.

But if one of them gets hurt then you have a stud RB. Think of 2 years ago when Holmes and LJ were basically a RBBC. Both were worthy of starting. Then Holmes got hurt and LJ became a stud.

true, and that was also an extreme situation. not many handcuffs have LJ's ability. especially everyone i listed above.

But AD DOES have that ability. So if Chester gets hurt you have a stud RB in AD. And if AD gets hurt you have a RB1 in Taylor (as he was last year).

thats pretty much my point. AP is so good and I expect him to get 75-80% by week 6 that there is no sense even reaching for Chester as a so-called hand-cuff. I either grab AP or not at all.

 

[(HULK)]

This is not being looked at objectively.

The correct question is this: Who has less risk and higher upside:

AD in the 2nd round

Lynch in the 4th round

If you're telling yourself AD in the 2nd you're taking crazy pills. Its too early to take someone with so many unknown variables.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

This is not being looked at objectively.The correct question is this: Who has less risk and higher upside:AD in the 2nd roundLynch in the 4th roundIf you're telling yourself AD in the 2nd you're taking crazy pills. Its too early to take someone with so many unknown variables.

I'd rather have AP at the 2/3 turn than Lynch in the 4th.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

Define "huge numbers", im curious as to what sort of numbers you're talking here. P.S-DD didn't do too badly behind that poor line with a poor QB and a less experienced AJ.

The former Domanick Davis was not heading to the other side of the hill when he did that, he was in his prime. Green really went downhill the 2nd half of last year. There is no way I would draft him as a RB2. Huge numbers for a RB20 or so would be 1200 and 10 TDs. and I think AP can easily hit that. Green won't. Jamal won't. Barber won't. AP has a good chance to hit those numbers. Talent and performance will dictate his playing time. I am comfortable saying that I think he is so good that the vikings will not be able to keep him on the bench, and thus think he is a better pick than those other RBs.

 

[thehornet]

This is not being looked at objectively.The correct question is this: Who has less risk and higher upside:AD in the 2nd roundLynch in the 4th roundIf you're telling yourself AD in the 2nd you're taking crazy pills. Its too early to take someone with so many unknown variables.

Yes, AP in the second over Marshawn in the 4th for me, please. AP is lightyears away from Lynch in every facet of the game.Another thing to clear up, the Bills head coach has specifically stated that he is committed to a RBBC this year. Meanwhile, we can pretty much assume the same in Minny. So why all the love for Lynch when the same situation is taking place in MInny but with a much more highly touted back?

 

[(HULK)]

This is not being looked at objectively.The correct question is this: Who has less risk and higher upside:AD in the 2nd roundLynch in the 4th roundIf you're telling yourself AD in the 2nd you're taking crazy pills. Its too early to take someone with so many unknown variables.

Yes, AP in the second over Marshawn in the 4th for me, please. AP is lightyears away from Lynch in every facet of the game.Another thing to clear up, the Bills head coach has specifically stated that he is committed to a RBBC this year. Meanwhile, we can pretty much assume the same in Minny. So why all the love for Lynch when the same situation is taking place in MInny but with a much more highly touted back?

Love? I'm not talking about taking Lynch in the 2nd round, and I'd come down hard on anyone who did, much like I am now with Adrian.

 

[Biabreakable]

I allready said this but...

Why are people assuming that AD will be in a RBBC? Did Childress say that? Or anyone else on the Vikings front office or coaching staff?

Meanwhile Jauron has clearly said Lynch will be used in a RBBC.

I dont see how these 2 situations are the same. Especially when AD is a much more talented RB than Lynch is.

 

[PahtyTom]

Rookie Peterson gets plenty of preseason work for Vikings

By DAVE CAMPBELL, AP Sports Writer

August 19, 2007

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) -- The Minnesota Vikings have insisted all along they weren't worried about Adrian Peterson's injury history. The final piece of evidence came when the prized rookie got 19 carries in two exhibition games.

Peterson, though, did more than just pass a preseason durability test for his once-broken collarbone. He has scored a touchdown and gained 103 yards, including a 43-yard run against the New York Jets.

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"We've been trying to ramp him up little by little and see what we feel like he looks at well and give him a little bit more every week," coach Brad Childress said. "I don't know that we're necessarily shopping an exact number for him, but he is fairly adept with most of the stuff we are doing right now."

The seventh player chosen in the draft juked one man against the Jets with a pirouette move a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- as he often did at Oklahoma -- and finished the sprint down the sideline by barreling his left shoulder into another defender as he fell to the turf.

"We didn't have a lot of those runs last year," quarterback Tarvaris Jackson said. "Our offensive line has got a year under their belts with the blocking schemes, and they're going to be a lot better this year for all our backs. That's going to make my job a lot easier, and it's going to make our offense more explosive. That's good to see."

Before the fantasy football crowd gets too pumped up about Peterson and his first-year potential, it's worth highlighting Chester Taylor's name on the depth chart. After rushing a franchise-record 303 times for 1,216 yards in 15 games last season and impressing Childress with his toughness, Taylor is still the starter who figures to get more than half of the carries.

Peterson is the "changeup," who will provide a flashier option as the second part of this running back tandem -- one of the latest NFL trends used successfully last year by playoff teams like Chicago, Dallas, Indianapolis, New England and New Orleans.

Asked Sunday about his running backs, Childress said he hasn't seen anything during training camp to change his mind about the roles for Taylor and Peterson.

"It's all about coming out of this camp with a good idea of who we are as a football team and who we are as an offense -- and then individually, not asking guys to do something that we do not feel like they are very good at," Childress said.

Peterson is obviously very good at running the ball. Staying healthy and picking up the nuances of a complicated NFL offense will be critical factors in his success.

He certainly hasn't shown any hesitation regarding that broken clavicle that kept him out of seven games in his final college season -- or with any other body part, for that matter.

"When you watch the game, I'm out there taking some blows and delivering some blows. So it's not an issue at all," Peterson said.

opinions?

 

[thehornet]

I allready said this but...

Why are people assuming that AD will be in a RBBC? Did Childress say that? Or anyone else on the Vikings front office or coaching staff?

Meanwhile Jauron has clearly said Lynch will be used in a RBBC.

I dont see how these 2 situations are the same. Especially when AD is a much more talented RB than Lynch is.

I agree with everything you say. However, considering we have no proof ,all we can do is assume. Secondly, It's not as if Chester stinks. He had a pretty good year and they paid him a heap of money. Why not use both? but i have also stated i think AP will be getting 75-80% of carries by week 6 or so and i am sticking to it.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

 

[Biabreakable]

I allready said this but...

Why are people assuming that AD will be in a RBBC? Did Childress say that? Or anyone else on the Vikings front office or coaching staff?

Meanwhile Jauron has clearly said Lynch will be used in a RBBC.

I dont see how these 2 situations are the same. Especially when AD is a much more talented RB than Lynch is.

I agree with everything you say. However, considering we have no proof ,all we can do is assume. Secondly, It's not as if Chester stinks. He had a pretty good year and they paid him a heap of money. Why not use both? but i have also stated i think AP will be getting 75-80% of carries by week 6 or so and i am sticking to it.

Well that is the issue here. I wouldn't go as far as expecting 75% for AD. Chester is a good player and both will get action.However everyone on the team as well as outside observers are noticing how AD gets more yards even on a normal run than Chester would probobly get. The difference between a 5 yard carry on 1st down and a 2 or 3 yard carry is huge. Childress proved he is commited to the running game by letting Chester get 300 carries when he was for the most part not getting more than 2 or 3 yards/carry. AD will get more carries because he is more effective. Chester will come in and give a breather at times as well as 3rd down.

I think the Vikings with 2 capable RBs will run the ball quite a bit more than they did last year. Especially to protect Jackson from having to carry the offense.

Right now (I know its preseason) the Vikings have run the ball 54 times to 46 pass attempts. That is a distribution that I think will continue. This is going to be a running team. Especially with the Viking defense being capable of keeping the score close. Which they should be able to do most of the time.

Last year the Vikings ran the ball 442 times out of 1025 plays. I don't think the offense is going to be that much worse than last year in fact I see some room for improvement due to AD and Williamson being better as well as the young WR who I think are not worse than the likes of Travis Taylor and Robinson from last year. If this 54% distribution for the running game continues and if the Vikings can muster 1000 plays that would be 540 carries divided between all Viking players.

I expect Jackson to run the ball quite a bit actualy as that is one of his strengths. He may run the ball 60-80 times out of those 540.

If AD and Chester split 50/50 that would still be somthing like 220-235 carries each (have to subtract some for MM, Pinner and WR runs).

If the split is 60/40 AD will get 250-280 carries with Chester still having a significant role of 150-180 carries.

If the split shifts even further in AD's favor (which it could) then he is going to have over 300 combined touches and will compete with the other RB 1s being taken in the 1st round. That is the upside.

Not expecting him to do that but if I am right about the total number of rushing plays here it is hard for me to see a healthy AD not getting 250 carries as his floor.

 

[monkeysee]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Jamal Lewis before Adrian Peterson in any league = Donkey pick

 

[Colin Dowling]

Rookie Peterson gets plenty of preseason work for Vikings

By DAVE CAMPBELL, AP Sports Writer

August 19, 2007

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) -- The Minnesota Vikings have insisted all along they weren't worried about Adrian Peterson's injury history. The final piece of evidence came when the prized rookie got 19 carries in two exhibition games.

Peterson, though, did more than just pass a preseason durability test for his once-broken collarbone. He has scored a touchdown and gained 103 yards, including a 43-yard run against the New York Jets.

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"We've been trying to ramp him up little by little and see what we feel like he looks at well and give him a little bit more every week," coach Brad Childress said. "I don't know that we're necessarily shopping an exact number for him, but he is fairly adept with most of the stuff we are doing right now."

The seventh player chosen in the draft juked one man against the Jets with a pirouette move a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- as he often did at Oklahoma -- and finished the sprint down the sideline by barreling his left shoulder into another defender as he fell to the turf.

"We didn't have a lot of those runs last year," quarterback Tarvaris Jackson said. "Our offensive line has got a year under their belts with the blocking schemes, and they're going to be a lot better this year for all our backs. That's going to make my job a lot easier, and it's going to make our offense more explosive. That's good to see."

Before the fantasy football crowd gets too pumped up about Peterson and his first-year potential, it's worth highlighting Chester Taylor's name on the depth chart. After rushing a franchise-record 303 times for 1,216 yards in 15 games last season and impressing Childress with his toughness, Taylor is still the starter who figures to get more than half of the carries.

Peterson is the "changeup," who will provide a flashier option as the second part of this running back tandem -- one of the latest NFL trends used successfully last year by playoff teams like Chicago, Dallas, Indianapolis, New England and New Orleans.

Asked Sunday about his running backs, Childress said he hasn't seen anything during training camp to change his mind about the roles for Taylor and Peterson.

"It's all about coming out of this camp with a good idea of who we are as a football team and who we are as an offense -- and then individually, not asking guys to do something that we do not feel like they are very good at," Childress said.

Peterson is obviously very good at running the ball. Staying healthy and picking up the nuances of a complicated NFL offense will be critical factors in his success.

He certainly hasn't shown any hesitation regarding that broken clavicle that kept him out of seven games in his final college season -- or with any other body part, for that matter.

"When you watch the game, I'm out there taking some blows and delivering some blows. So it's not an issue at all," Peterson said.

opinions?

Conjecture. Peterson will be the "changeup" until the team is 2-6 and the seat starts warming for Childress.

 

[3nOut]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

I think Jacobs should be listed here as well.

 

[EBF]

I see him getting 15+ carries per game from week one on. The Vikings are not going to be very good this year. They'll try to win games, but I'd argue that they have more incentive than the average team to groom their young players. So I expect Rice, Jackson, and Peterson to get a baptism by fire. Realistically, this team is playing for 2008 more than it's playing for 2007.

Peterson is an intriguing RB2 and a solid RB3 in twelve team leagues. He carries some risk and will probably be somewhat inconsistent, but he's one of the few backs ranked outside the top 20 who could legitimately carry your team down the stretch.

I don't expect Taylor to be a big factor. I think this situation is closer to Caddy/Pittman than it is to Bush/Deuce or MJD/Taylor.

 

[bb7278]

I see him getting 15+ carries per game from week one on. The Vikings are not going to be very good this year. They'll try to win games, but I'd argue that they have more incentive than the average team to groom their young players. So I expect Rice, Jackson, and Peterson to get a baptism by fire. Realistically, this team is playing for 2008 more than it's playing for 2007.

Peterson is an intriguing RB2 and a solid RB3 in twelve team leagues. He carries some risk and will probably be somewhat inconsistent, but he's one of the few backs ranked outside the top 20 who could legitimately carry your team down the stretch.

I don't expect Taylor to be a big factor. I think this situation is closer to Caddy/Pittman than it is to Bush/Deuce or MJD/Taylor.

I agree with this and also with the people who think AD's workload is going to increase throughout the year.FWIW, FBG's official projections for my league on MyFBG has AD at the 16th RB today, behind Portis and ahead of McGahee, placing him firmly in the second round at 2.04 if all RB's are taken in a 12-team draft or 2.06 if you factor in Manning and Smith/CJ.

So depending on your scoring system getting him after 2.06 represents VALUE according to the FBG projections.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Rookie Peterson gets plenty of preseason work for Vikings

By DAVE CAMPBELL, AP Sports Writer

August 19, 2007

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) -- The Minnesota Vikings have insisted all along they weren't worried about Adrian Peterson's injury history. The final piece of evidence came when the prized rookie got 19 carries in two exhibition games.

Peterson, though, did more than just pass a preseason durability test for his once-broken collarbone. He has scored a touchdown and gained 103 yards, including a 43-yard run against the New York Jets.

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"We've been trying to ramp him up little by little and see what we feel like he looks at well and give him a little bit more every week," coach Brad Childress said. "I don't know that we're necessarily shopping an exact number for him, but he is fairly adept with most of the stuff we are doing right now."

The seventh player chosen in the draft juked one man against the Jets with a pirouette move a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- as he often did at Oklahoma -- and finished the sprint down the sideline by barreling his left shoulder into another defender as he fell to the turf.

"We didn't have a lot of those runs last year," quarterback Tarvaris Jackson said. "Our offensive line has got a year under their belts with the blocking schemes, and they're going to be a lot better this year for all our backs. That's going to make my job a lot easier, and it's going to make our offense more explosive. That's good to see."

Before the fantasy football crowd gets too pumped up about Peterson and his first-year potential, it's worth highlighting Chester Taylor's name on the depth chart. After rushing a franchise-record 303 times for 1,216 yards in 15 games last season and impressing Childress with his toughness, Taylor is still the starter who figures to get more than half of the carries.

Peterson is the "changeup," who will provide a flashier option as the second part of this running back tandem -- one of the latest NFL trends used successfully last year by playoff teams like Chicago, Dallas, Indianapolis, New England and New Orleans.

Asked Sunday about his running backs, Childress said he hasn't seen anything during training camp to change his mind about the roles for Taylor and Peterson.

"It's all about coming out of this camp with a good idea of who we are as a football team and who we are as an offense -- and then individually, not asking guys to do something that we do not feel like they are very good at," Childress said.

Peterson is obviously very good at running the ball. Staying healthy and picking up the nuances of a complicated NFL offense will be critical factors in his success.

He certainly hasn't shown any hesitation regarding that broken clavicle that kept him out of seven games in his final college season -- or with any other body part, for that matter.

"When you watch the game, I'm out there taking some blows and delivering some blows. So it's not an issue at all," Peterson said.

opinions?

Conjecture. Peterson will be the "changeup" until the team is 2-6 and the seat starts warming for Childress.

There's no quote from Childress here confirming this is how it's going to go, unlike what Jauron said in Buffalo. Obviously, the writer has sources, and didn't pull this out of thin air, so it may actually be like this for the first couple of games. I say the shift in carries occurs after their week 5 bye, although they do have a tough stretch of games coming out of that bye (@ Chi, @ Dal, vs PHI, vs SD), so that's something else to be careful about.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

It was a joke, calm down. Its the red-headed stepchild known as FFToday.Here from a Sporting News interview with NFL scouts

""He is the kind of guy who can score any time he touches the ball. But his style is susceptible to getting a lot of hits. He runs straight up, and it makes him vulnerable. That's maybe why he gets hurt. I like the way (Marshawn) Lynch runs better; he is closer to the ground, more elusive, breaks tackles. I would take Lynch over Peterson."

That would be a lot more credible if a scouts name was attached to the comment. I did laugh at the red-headed stepchild comment though.

I could care less who is right but you asked him to prove his point (which is lame) and he did it. You then said you didn't buy it because no name was attached (Lame again) and he sent another quote...take it like a man that there are some people somewhere that think Lynch will be the better pro.BTW, I am not one of them

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

It was a joke, calm down. Its the red-headed stepchild known as FFToday.Here from a Sporting News interview with NFL scouts

""He is the kind of guy who can score any time he touches the ball. But his style is susceptible to getting a lot of hits. He runs straight up, and it makes him vulnerable. That's maybe why he gets hurt. I like the way (Marshawn) Lynch runs better; he is closer to the ground, more elusive, breaks tackles. I would take Lynch over Peterson."

That would be a lot more credible if a scouts name was attached to the comment. I did laugh at the red-headed stepchild comment though.

I could care less who is right but you asked him to prove his point (which is lame) and he did it. You then said you didn't buy it because no name was attached (Lame again) and he sent another quote...take it like a man that there are some people somewhere that think Lynch will be the better pro.BTW, I am not one of them

All I said was that I wanted to see the name of a scout who believes that.

Maybe there are some...but I have yet to see one by name.

 

[jurb26]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent.

Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min.

I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

 

[jurb26]

I see him getting 15+ carries per game from week one on. The Vikings are not going to be very good this year. They'll try to win games, but I'd argue that they have more incentive than the average team to groom their young players. So I expect Rice, Jackson, and Peterson to get a baptism by fire. Realistically, this team is playing for 2008 more than it's playing for 2007.

Peterson is an intriguing RB2 and a solid RB3 in twelve team leagues. He carries some risk and will probably be somewhat inconsistent, but he's one of the few backs ranked outside the top 20 who could legitimately carry your team down the stretch.

I don't expect Taylor to be a big factor. I think this situation is closer to Caddy/Pittman than it is to Bush/Deuce or MJD/Taylor.

I totally disagree. I think Min will surprise a lot of people this year and actually finish 2nd in the division. Likely being in the playoff hunt late into the season in the weak NFC.

 

[thehornet]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent.

Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min.

I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

This is off topic, but i can't let this slide. Chester Taylor better than Julius Jones?? Um, absolutely not even close.

 

[jurb26]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

Green is among the most overvalued RBs in drafts. Go look at his numbers in the 2nd half of the season. He wore down. and now he goes to a team with a poor line and one receiver. Good luck with him. Jamal is a decent RB3 at best.

Barber will split carries with Julius.

It is just a matter of when regarding AP getting 20+ carries per game. The Vikings will figure out how great he is and realize that a talent like him has to be on the field. He will almost for sure get goal line carries.

I prefer to be a forward thinker, and take the players who can put up huge numbers. At worst it could be a slight reach, but I'm willing to take that small risk to give me the best chance to win.

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent.

Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min.

I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

This is off topic, but i can't let this slide. Chester Taylor better than Julius Jones?? Um, absolutely not even close.

What has Jones done to impress you so much?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent. Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min. I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

Here are Ahman Greens first and second half stats: First 8 games:120 carries, 561 yards, 4.7 YPC 3 TD's 20 catches 173 yards 1 TDFantasy PPG 16.2Last 8 games:146 carries, 498 yards 3.4 YPC 2 TD's26 catches 200 yards 0 TD'sFantasy PPG 10.2The last 8 weeks, his weekly YPC were 2.5. 2.2, 3.1, 7.3, 3.7, 3.6, 2.3, 3.2....if you take away his one YPC over 4.0 in the second half, he averaged 3.0 in the other 7 games in the last 8 games. I would say there is no question he wore down in the second half of the year. Now he goes to a team with a worse QB, worse line, and only 1 WR. I'll pass on him.

 

[jurb26]

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent. Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min. I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

Here are Ahman Greens first and second half stats: First 8 games:120 carries, 561 yards, 4.7 YPC 3 TD's 20 catches 173 yards 1 TDFantasy PPG 16.2Last 8 games:146 carries, 498 yards 3.4 YPC 2 TD's26 catches 200 yards 0 TD'sFantasy PPG 10.2The last 8 weeks, his weekly YPC were 2.5. 2.2, 3.1, 7.3, 3.7, 3.6, 2.3, 3.2....if you take away his one YPC over 4.0 in the second half, he averaged 3.0 in the other 7 games in the last 8 games. I would say there is no question he wore down in the second half of the year. Now he goes to a team with a worse QB, worse line, and only 1 WR. I'll pass on him.

Wow, awful strange how playing the #1 rated run D twice, #5 rated D and #6 D could have had nothing to do with that.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent. Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min. I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

Here are Ahman Greens first and second half stats: First 8 games:120 carries, 561 yards, 4.7 YPC 3 TD's 20 catches 173 yards 1 TDFantasy PPG 16.2Last 8 games:146 carries, 498 yards 3.4 YPC 2 TD's26 catches 200 yards 0 TD'sFantasy PPG 10.2The last 8 weeks, his weekly YPC were 2.5. 2.2, 3.1, 7.3, 3.7, 3.6, 2.3, 3.2....if you take away his one YPC over 4.0 in the second half, he averaged 3.0 in the other 7 games in the last 8 games. I would say there is no question he wore down in the second half of the year. Now he goes to a team with a worse QB, worse line, and only 1 WR. I'll pass on him.

Wow, awful strange how playing the #1 rated run D twice, #5 rated D and #6 D could have had nothing to do with that.

The Vikings, yes, they had something to do with it. The others, take a look at how close those other defenses were in rush defense to the ones ranked down to about 20th or so. (I don't recall exactly). The numbers were close between 5 and 20 or so IIRC. Minimal factor in his performance. Other RBs face the same thing. I also saw a lot of Packer games and it was easy to see he didn't have any burst hitting the holes in the 2nd half of the season. So I did not just base the above on pure stats. I might not have even looked that much into it if not for seeing him play so much last year.

 

[jurb26]

Green wore down? Then how do you explain him averaging over 100 total yards per game the last 5 games of the season. Verse the likes of Chi and Min on top of it? Green has an ADP of 4.09. That is overvalued! You have to be kidding me. Yet taking Peterson in the 2nd isn't overvalued. Just like last year, Lewis will prove to be a solid RB2 you can land in the 5th round or later. The guy may not be what he used to, but he is the unquestioned starter on him team and still has plenty of talent. Barber will split carries with Jones. Wow, big deal. Peterson will split carriers with Taylor. Only Taylor is better than Jones and Dal is far better than Min. I don't mind forward thinking, but your are just plan seeing what you want to see.

Here are Ahman Greens first and second half stats: First 8 games:120 carries, 561 yards, 4.7 YPC 3 TD's 20 catches 173 yards 1 TDFantasy PPG 16.2Last 8 games:146 carries, 498 yards 3.4 YPC 2 TD's26 catches 200 yards 0 TD'sFantasy PPG 10.2The last 8 weeks, his weekly YPC were 2.5. 2.2, 3.1, 7.3, 3.7, 3.6, 2.3, 3.2....if you take away his one YPC over 4.0 in the second half, he averaged 3.0 in the other 7 games in the last 8 games. I would say there is no question he wore down in the second half of the year. Now he goes to a team with a worse QB, worse line, and only 1 WR. I'll pass on him.

Wow, awful strange how playing the #1 rated run D twice, #5 rated D and #6 D could have had nothing to do with that.

The Vikings, yes, they had something to do with it. The others, take a look at how close those other defenses were in rush defense to the ones ranked down to about 20th or so. (I don't recall exactly). The numbers were close between 5 and 20 or so IIRC. Minimal factor in his performance. Other RBs face the same thing. I also saw a lot of Packer games and it was easy to see he didn't have any burst hitting the holes in the 2nd half of the season. So I did not just base the above on pure stats. I might not have even looked that much into it if not for seeing him play so much last year.

During his 1st half, Green faced rushing Ds that averaged a 17 rank. During his second half he faced rushing Ds that averaged a rank of 10. That is a significant difference. Especially when your Oline sucks to begin with. Green will have a far better run blocking line in front of him at Hou. Though, overall the teams are probably about the same.Oh and not that I like to play the game of what could have been (but this thread is all about that with Peterson). Green missed GBs 2 weakest rushing D foes weeks 4 and 5. Teams ranking 31 and 26 in the league.

 

[Irish]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

lol you think Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green have less risk and more upside than Adrian Peterson?I can't think of a RB who has less upside than Jamal Lewis. Ahman Green had a nice season last year but is now on Houston and was on the injury list every other week last season.

I'm not buying AD in the 2nd round, but there's no way I would take Green/Lewis ahead of him.

I think a lot of these anti AD posters have him confused with Adrian Peterson of the Bears. AD is a late 2nd rd pick without a doubt and I wouldn't touch any of those guys with AD still on the board.

 

[jurb26]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

The man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.

Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.

lol you think Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green have less risk and more upside than Adrian Peterson?I can't think of a RB who has less upside than Jamal Lewis. Ahman Green had a nice season last year but is now on Houston and was on the injury list every other week last season.

I'm not buying AD in the 2nd round, but there's no way I would take Green/Lewis ahead of him.

Right, way to put words into my mouth. Peterson certainly has more upside than Green or Lewis. Green and Lewis are both far safer picks though. Green and Lewis actual start and are unquestioned in their lead RB roles. Peterson needs an injury to Taylor to see the amount of touches either of these guys will. If you want to play the upside game though, Barber would fly up over Peterson IMO. He just doesn't offer any more safety as he too is going to be sharing carries unless another guy gets hurt.Just like last year, people said Green and Lewis were lost causes. They finished the season RB 15 and 16, strong #2s. Just like last year Green and Lewis will be overlooked by many drafters only to outperform their ADPs and provide solid RB2 seasons. Best of all, you can draft these guys in rounds 4 and 5... sometimes 6. I guess there is a silver lining to everything. Go ahead and draft Peterson in round 2 if you want. You can always come back in rounds 4-6 and nab one of these RBs 2s and will likely start them more games. If you want to get the most upside with as little risk as possible this is the right thing to do.

 

[John Mamula]

i've bumped peterson up to RB24 in non PPR and RB27 in PPR, but bottom line projecting him for more than 1200 combined yards and 6-7 TDs is foolish.

despite the talent, taylor will take enough production away from allowing peterson to be 2nd round material.

in non PPR i would think about taking him in the 3rd round.

 

[Biabreakable]

i've bumped peterson up to RB24 in non PPR and RB27 in PPR, but bottom line projecting him for more than 1200 combined yards and 6-7 TDs is foolish.

despite the talent, taylor will take enough production away from allowing peterson to be 2nd round material.

in non PPR i would think about taking him in the 3rd round.

You must have some very lofty expectations for those other 23 RB non PPR. Otherwise this does not make sense.1200 combined yards and 6-7 TD foolish? Only if you think the Vikings will only manage to run the ball less than they did last year (442 times) AND you think that Chester is going to get close to 300 of those carries again while AD paitiently watches him get 2-3 yards on most of them.

 

[yinzer]

Right, way to put words into my mouth. Peterson certainly has more upside than Green or Lewis. Green and Lewis are both far safer picks though. Green and Lewis actual start and are unquestioned in their lead RB roles. Peterson needs an injury to Taylor to see the amount of touches either of these guys will. If you want to play the upside game though, Barber would fly up over Peterson IMO. He just doesn't offer any more safety as he too is going to be sharing carries unless another guy gets hurt.

Just like last year, people said Green and Lewis were lost causes. They finished the season RB 15 and 16, strong #2s. Just like last year Green and Lewis will be overlooked by many drafters only to outperform their ADPs and provide solid RB2 seasons. Best of all, you can draft these guys in rounds 4 and 5... sometimes 6. I guess there is a silver lining to everything. Go ahead and draft Peterson in round 2 if you want. You can always come back in rounds 4-6 and nab one of these RBs 2s and will likely start them more games. If you want to get the most upside with as little risk as possible this is the right thing to do.

I agree with this and if MB3 is on the board still, I'd take him. He's obviously on the better team, meaning more touches, namely more redzone and goalline touches.

...What seems to be overlooked here as ppl continue to argue about these other RB's is will ADP get the goalline carries and have enough opportunities down there to get a significant amount of TD's? Chester would've been even better and more valuable last year had he had more RZ opps and TD's, but he didn't

Now I'm sure ADP will get 3-4 TD's from 15-20+ yds out this season, but that doesn't mean he's going to be getting a lot of chances around the endzone. If he doesn't, I doubt he gets more than 6-7 TDs. If he does, he could certainly break 10. With a healthy Taylor, does ADP even get the nod there? I would think so just bc it makes their offense that much more dangerous and harder to cover/depend, but i'm not a coach in the NFL, and this is why I think it's hard to take a chance on him before mid-round 3

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Right, way to put words into my mouth. Peterson certainly has more upside than Green or Lewis. Green and Lewis are both far safer picks though. Green and Lewis actual start and are unquestioned in their lead RB roles. Peterson needs an injury to Taylor to see the amount of touches either of these guys will. If you want to play the upside game though, Barber would fly up over Peterson IMO. He just doesn't offer any more safety as he too is going to be sharing carries unless another guy gets hurt.

Just like last year, people said Green and Lewis were lost causes. They finished the season RB 15 and 16, strong #2s. Just like last year Green and Lewis will be overlooked by many drafters only to outperform their ADPs and provide solid RB2 seasons. Best of all, you can draft these guys in rounds 4 and 5... sometimes 6. I guess there is a silver lining to everything. Go ahead and draft Peterson in round 2 if you want. You can always come back in rounds 4-6 and nab one of these RBs 2s and will likely start them more games. If you want to get the most upside with as little risk as possible this is the right thing to do.

I agree with this and if MB3 is on the board still, I'd take him. He's obviously on the better team, meaning more touches, namely more redzone and goalline touches.

...What seems to be overlooked here as ppl continue to argue about these other RB's is will ADP get the goalline carries and have enough opportunities down there to get a significant amount of TD's? Chester would've been even better and more valuable last year had he had more RZ opps and TD's, but he didn't

Now I'm sure ADP will get 3-4 TD's from 15-20+ yds out this season, but that doesn't mean he's going to be getting a lot of chances around the endzone. If he doesn't, I doubt he gets more than 6-7 TDs. If he does, he could certainly break 10. With a healthy Taylor, does ADP even get the nod there? I would think so just bc it makes their offense that much more dangerous and harder to cover/depend, but i'm not a coach in the NFL, and this is why I think it's hard to take a chance on him before mid-round 3

I don't think there is any question that Peterson gets the goal line work. He has a nose for the end zone. The coaches can see that.

 

[ctdub]

I'll be the first to admit I have a serious man crush on AD this year. He will be fun to watch as he always goes 110%. I took him in the 4th rd Saturday and considered taking him in the second. I hope to get him in all 3 of my leagues.

AD will get the goal line carries. Taylor may get 2-3 all season. If you're a subcriber checkout Taylors game logs from last season... He had serious goal line issues and fumbled a few tds away. Childress must be a nice guy, because I would have benched his ### for fumbles losing the game against the bears, the dolphins and he had a big fumble of 2 against AZ. Not that AD will be immune to mistakes, but his 5 yard run (right after the 43yarder) was the more impressive run friday night to me. I hope the guys in my other leagues feel the same way some of you do about him so he can fall to me in the 3rd and 4th rds.

 

[jurb26]

I hope the guys in my other leagues feel the same way some of you do about him so he can fall to me in the 3rd and 4th rds.

This pretty much sums it all up. People who have a man crush on Peterson actually have convinced themselves that a guy with an ADP of 5.02 is "falling" to them in rounds 3 and 4.

 

[cjack]

I'll be the first to admit I have a serious man crush on AD this year. He will be fun to watch as he always goes 110%. I took him in the 4th rd Saturday and considered taking him in the second. I hope to get him in all 3 of my leagues. AD will get the goal line carries. Taylor may get 2-3 all season. If you're a subcriber checkout Taylors game logs from last season... He had serious goal line issues and fumbled a few tds away. Childress must be a nice guy, because I would have benched his ### for fumbles losing the game against the bears, the dolphins and he had a big fumble of 2 against AZ. Not that AD will be immune to mistakes, but his 5 yard run (right after the 43yarder) was the more impressive run friday night to me. I hope the guys in my other leagues feel the same way some of you do about him so he can fall to me in the 3rd and 4th rds.

Unfortunately, I agree with you. The problem is I'm now trying to figure out when I need to draft him if I don't want to miss out. I'm actually okay with taking him in the second round (pick 2.08 in a 12 teamer) if necessary, but I'd love to get him in the 4th round if possible. Maybe 3.05 is a good compromise. I just don't want to miss him and I know that's a dangerous thought process. I'm trying to figure out how best to get Peterson, a consensus top 5 QB and one of the top 5-6 WRs in rounds 2-4, if possible. If I knew Peterson would last to round 4, I'd go something like Owens in round 2, Palmer in round 3, and Peterson in round 4. More likely, I'll have to go something like Owens in round 2, Peterson in round 3, and then hope Brees or Bulger falls to me in round 4. Potential problem is, all TDs are worth 6 points in our league, so good QBs don't always last long. If I go that route, I think I'm going to have to be comfortable with McNabb or Kitna (not necessarily at that pick) if the top 5 don't make it that far.I really don't like many of the other RB2 options, so if I gamble and don't take him in round 2, and I miss out, I don't like the other options that will be available. So, I feel like I have to reach on him in round 2, or latest round 3. Not that I think it will be a reach in the long run.

 

[Meat]

I'll be the first to admit I have a serious man crush on AD this year. He will be fun to watch as he always goes 110%. I took him in the 4th rd Saturday and considered taking him in the second. I hope to get him in all 3 of my leagues.

AD will get the goal line carries. Taylor may get 2-3 all season. If you're a subcriber checkout Taylors game logs from last season... He had serious goal line issues and fumbled a few tds away. Childress must be a nice guy, because I would have benched his ### for fumbles losing the game against the bears, the dolphins and he had a big fumble of 2 against AZ. Not that AD will be immune to mistakes, but his 5 yard run (right after the 43yarder) was the more impressive run friday night to me. I hope the guys in my other leagues feel the same way some of you do about him so he can fall to me in the 3rd and 4th rds.

I actually couldn't locate the stats, but IMO this is a hugely important point, if Taylor was not successful @ the goal line last year, and AP shows some early success, that could prove to be a massive boost in value. I am on the fence here as most likely, my #2RB will be one of Green/Peterson. I'm intrigued by AP's upside, but I personally believe Green is the 'safer' pick at this point. ADP wise, in my 14 teamer a 2nd round pick is MUCH too high of a pick to use for Peterson. Very much looking forward to watching him play though, hopefully i can get him on a squad or two.