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ADP owners (1 Viewer)

how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.

IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.

 
how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.
GG..AP is still a top pick. What you're saying is correct about the projections. I just feel that he will be on a much shorter leash going forward and now has a real threat to take touches especially at the goal line.
 
He'll be MUCH more then a handcuff and AP owners should not be happy. They didn't trade up for insurance, they could've gotten that later. He'll see his share, especially at the goal line
Gerhart will get similar touches to what Chester Taylor did. Not an issue.
:thumbup:
He won't get close to as many touches as Chester did. And for those with short memories, Taylor saw a lot of red-zone looks in the 2008 season when ADP finished as the No. 3 fantasy back.
 
I dont think it hurts his value too much. As been mentioned previously, Gerhart is really a first and second down back who will steal some GL carries. The loss of Taylor should let ADP haul in a few more rec per year. Overall, I think we are talking a slight decrease in value, but nothing noticable really.
This is just wrong. He's a hammer near the Goal Line. Think Mike Alstott.

He will be their GL back.
I would say this is just wrong. highly doubtful the pull AD at the goal line (especially for a rookie), AD has been nothing but money down there.
ADP only has 40 rushing TDs the last 3 years, yeah they will pull him :thumbup:

 
how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.
GG..AP is still a top pick. What you're saying is correct about the projections. I just feel that he will be on a much shorter leash going forward and now has a real threat to take touches especially at the goal line.
Peterson has one of the longest leashes in the NFL of any player at any position.
 
how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.
GG..AP is still a top pick. What you're saying is correct about the projections. I just feel that he will be on a much shorter leash going forward and now has a real threat to take touches especially at the goal line.
Peterson has one of the longest leashes in the NFL of any player at any position.
Is that why Chilly kept putting him on the sideline after every fumble?? Look fine by me, I hope everyone still takes him 1 overall. Teams don't trade up and use a top pick on a RB because he's the end all that he's been made out to be. And guaranteed, he fumbles a couple times he will be watching.
 
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how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.
GG..AP is still a top pick. What you're saying is correct about the projections. I just feel that he will be on a much shorter leash going forward and now has a real threat to take touches especially at the goal line.
Peterson has one of the longest leashes in the NFL of any player at any position.
Is that why Chilly kept putting him on the sideline after every fumble??
and then he would be right back in next series?? He's just not going to get benched like a slaton or whomever else, he's to good.
 
how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.
GG..AP is still a top pick. What you're saying is correct about the projections. I just feel that he will be on a much shorter leash going forward and now has a real threat to take touches especially at the goal line.
Peterson has one of the longest leashes in the NFL of any player at any position.
Is that why Chilly kept putting him on the sideline after every fumble?? Look fine by me, I hope everyone still takes him 1 overall. Teams don't trade up and use a top pick on a RB because he's the end all that he's been made out to be. And guaranteed, he fumbles a couple times he will be watching.
You obviously have some sort of an agenda, or bone to pick regarding Peterson. Does he fumble too much? Yup. Are the Vikings going to take a RB they took #7 overall who is, health permitting, on pace to be one of the all-time greats at the position and "put him on the sideline" for a slightly-above-average RB they took in the mid-2nd round? Short answer - no. Gerhart may be better than Chester Taylor at certain things, but he's not a better running back than Chester. He's on par, but they just excel in different aspects of being a running back. There's zero chance that Gerhart gets any more work than Chester got, unless Peterson suffers an injury. They may use Gerhart on the goaline occassionally or to close out blowout games, but Peterson will get far more 3rd down work than he has in the past. The end result will be another top 5 season for AP while the backup running back for the Vikings, now Gerhart, will remain one of the more desireable handcuffs.
 
how many TDs did ADP have last season? 18. so even if gerhart is used and takes say 7 tds away. he still had double digit tds, and his reception should be up as well without taylor there.IB, i know you don't like ADP but that fumble on the goal line last year against the saints was more favre's fault then adp.
GG..AP is still a top pick. What you're saying is correct about the projections. I just feel that he will be on a much shorter leash going forward and now has a real threat to take touches especially at the goal line.
can't argue that too much. he will have a shorter leash, however, that is only if gerhart is successful filling in for him if needed, and that is a complete uknown.
 
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He'll be MUCH more then a handcuff and AP owners should not be happy. They didn't trade up for insurance, they could've gotten that later. He'll see his share, especially at the goal line
Gerhart will get similar touches to what Chester Taylor did. Not an issue.
:thumbup:
He won't get close to as many touches as Chester did. And for those with short memories, Taylor saw a lot of red-zone looks in the 2008 season when ADP finished as the No. 3 fantasy back.
Why wouldn't he get close to the touches Chester did? Sure he'll get less receptions but the Vikings don't want to run ADP into the ground so they are going to limit to 25 carries a game, less if they can. I wouldn't be surprised to see close to 10 carries a game for Gerhart and it won't impact ADP's fantasy numbers much at all. I think if you're an ADP dynasty owner you have to be very happy about the team drafting Gerhart. They should have north of 500 carries this season so there's no worry about ADP, and in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see him break even more long runs with Gerhart wearing down defenses.
 
Why wouldn't he get close to the touches Chester did? Sure he'll get less receptions but the Vikings don't want to run ADP into the ground so they are going to limit to 25 carries a game, less if they can. I wouldn't be surprised to see close to 10 carries a game for Gerhart and it won't impact ADP's fantasy numbers much at all. I think if you're an ADP dynasty owner you have to be very happy about the team drafting Gerhart. They should have north of 500 carries this season so there's no worry about ADP, and in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see him break even more long runs with Gerhart wearing down defenses.
This is exactly right, IMO. I'm wondering if half the reason for the fumbling is due to injury. He didn't look like the AP I expect to see sometime after about mid-season last year. Gerhard will lessen the wear and tear on AP.
 
I'll say this: Peterson owners might have to spend the 6.11 on Gerhart now. He's a must have handcuff. Gerhart is a must start right away any week ADP is out.
This is a very good point and makes Peterson an expensive investment.
:shrug: any more than Ringer to handcuff CJ, Jennings to handcuff MJD or McGahee to handcuff Rice? If anything I have to think Ringer is the most expensive pure handcuff.
 
I am not worried about it too much, but I would have loved to add Gerhart to my team. I missed out by one pick

 
I see a lot of people assuming AP will take over Chester's 3rd down duties, and a few others saying Gerhart could do it. But no one has mentioned Harvin. I think there is a pretty good chance Harvin will line up more often in the backfield next season, and he will get some of those receptions that Taylor was getting last year.

ETA: I agree with the general consensus that Gerhart will have a role, but that won't prevent AP from being a top 3 RB.

 
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ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".

 
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ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
I think your assumption that the Vikings would replace one of the top two running backs in the game with Gerhart at the goal-line is terribly offbase, but would you care to elaborate on AP's fumbles in goal-line situations as referenced above? Outside of botched handoff with Favre in the Saints game, I don't recall another goal-line fumble last year. Is Gerhart going to get some GL carries next year? Absolutely. Is he going to steal anywhere close to half of those GL touchdowns? My answer to that question is a resounding " :goodposting: " :shrug:
 
The only league where I care to draft Gerhart is the one league I own ADP. I manged to do that. There are a lot better options at the end of the 1st rd and beginning of the 2nd that can help my team more than a backup RB.

 
ADP owners are lying if they aren't worried about vulture TDs.
:lmao: Most of his TD's came from inside the 3. Anyone want to bet his TD totals go down by at least 25% next year?
Isn't this true of most RB's with high TD totals? This is dumb. AP is a great goal line back. Why on earth would we just assume that a rookie, that has proven nothing yet IN THE NFL, is going to automatically get goal line work?

The Vikings needed a good backup RB and that is all Gerhart is being counted on for at this point. The loss of Taylor and replacement with Gerhart is a huge win for AP as he's going to be in on 3rd down. His reception more than doubled last year even with Taylor still around. So there should be some uptick in that total for AP again.

Why do so many people want to knock AP so badly? It's like people manufacture things to knock him for. It makes no sense. Great character guy. Works his butt off. Performs at a very high level. What's not to like? Why sooooooooooo many haters?

 
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
IMO this post is pretty far off base.1. On the first bolded point above:

Of Peterson's 20 career (regular season) fumbles, he lost 13. Of those 13 lost fumbles, 2 came in the red zone but 0 came inside the opponent's 10 yard line. So if you are discussing goal line carries, his fumbling has not been a problem.

2. On the second bolded point above:

Over the past 3 seasons, 31 RBs have had 20 or more carries at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Of those 31 RBs, only Michael Turner and Lendale White had conversion rates better than Peterson's 50% rate. The worst rate among the group was Forte's 21.2%, so there is a decent spread. And some of those 31 players - like White, Fargas, Graham, Morris, McClain, etc. - aren't starters... meaning there are starters not even on the list.

Drop the threshold to all RBs with 10 or more carries at the goal line over the past 3 seasons, and the group expands to 64 RBs. Two more, Ricky Williams (on 16 carries) and Duckett (on 13 carries), have better conversion rates than Peterson, but the rest are lower, many by quite a bit. The lowest rate drops to 10% (Fred Jackson :mellow: ).

IMO all of this shows that Peterson is indeed significantly more effective than an average NFL starter at the goal line. But we kind of knew that already... if he wasn't, he probably wouldn't have gotten 42 goal line carries over that span.

3. On the number of goal line carries:

While Peterson had 42 goal line carries over the past 3 seasons, note that Chester Taylor had 21, other RBs (Tahi & Richardson) had 3, and QBs (Frerotte & Jackson) had 5. Peterson only had 59% of the team's goal line carries over that span. So there would seem to be plenty of room for Gerhart and others to get some carries without taking a lot away from Peterson.

As for last season specifically, Peterson had 30 goal line carries, but others combined for 9. So Peterson had about 77% of the goal line carries. I don't see any compelling reason to believe Gerhart will get more than 25% of the goal line carries, which would basically maintain Peterson's percentage from last season.

I think a better question with regard to Peterson's fantasy performance this year is whether or not the team will get 57 goal line opportunities again (39 carries and 18 targets). That's a lot.

4. On Peterson's fumbling:

IMO the appropriate way to discuss his fumbling issue is in terms of fumbling rate, not total fumbles. For example, you note that he has more fumbles than any NFL RB over the past 3 years, but he also has many more carries than any other NFL RB other than Thomas Jones. Peterson has 916 carries over that span, and only three other RBs (Jones, Tomlinson, Jackson) have more than 790 over that period... big gap. Now, maybe his fumbling rate is also the worst, I don't know.

Plus, fumbles lost are actually more important IMO. It's harder to find that data in a format handy for comparing all RBs, but we know Peterson lost 13 of those 20 fumbles... on 999 touches. So his lost fumble rate is 1.3%. Meanwhile, he has 5313 total yards and 41 TDs on those touches. Only 4 others (LT, MJD, Deangelo, and Addai) are within 10 TDs of his total (LT actually had 42), but Peterson has at least almost 1000 yards more than all of them.

The Vikings are not going to stop giving Peterson the ball at the goal line or anywhere else.

 
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The only league where I care to draft Gerhart is the one league I own ADP. I manged to do that. There are a lot better options at the end of the 1st rd and beginning of the 2nd that can help my team more than a backup RB.
It's not like any of the 3rd round WR's are stepping into productive starting jobs anytime soon either. You could make a case for McCluster getting playing time right away but I don't see the upside. Emmanuel Sanders is in a nice spot, but after Golden Tate all of these guys are a crapshoot.
 
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.
AD's goal line fumbles were backbreakers, huh? Would it surprise you to find out that he only fumbled once inside the red zone in 2009 (at the 17 against Detroit) and the Vikings won the game. Only one of his lost fumbles in 2009 occurred in a loss. And that happened at the Vikings' 17 yard line. As a matter of fact, other than the bobbled hand-off against NO, AD has never lost a fumble in a goal-to-go situation.Facts, get some.

 
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.
AD's goal line fumbles were backbreakers, huh? Would it surprise you to find out that he only fumbled once inside the red zone in 2009 (at the 17 against Detroit) and the Vikings won the game. Only one of his lost fumbles in 2009 occurred in a loss. And that happened at the Vikings' 17 yard line. As a matter of fact, other than the bobbled hand-off against NO, AD has never lost a fumble in a goal-to-go situation.Facts, get some.
:goodposting:
 
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
IMO this post is pretty far off base.1. On the first bolded point above:

Of Peterson's 20 career (regular season) fumbles, he lost 13. Of those 13 lost fumbles, 2 came in the red zone but 0 came inside the opponent's 10 yard line. So if you are discussing goal line carries, his fumbling has not been a problem.

2. On the second bolded point above:

Over the past 3 seasons, 31 RBs have had 20 or more carries at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Of those 31 RBs, only Michael Turner and Lendale White had conversion rates better than Peterson's 50% rate. The worst rate among the group was Forte's 21.2%, so there is a decent spread. And some of those 31 players - like White, Fargas, Graham, Morris, McClain, etc. - aren't starters... meaning there are starters not even on the list.

Drop the threshold to all RBs with 10 or more carries at the goal line over the past 3 seasons, and the group expands to 64 RBs. Two more, Ricky Williams (on 16 carries) and Duckett (on 13 carries), have better conversion rates than Peterson, but the rest are lower, many by quite a bit. The lowest rate drops to 10% (Fred Jackson :goodposting: ).

IMO all of this shows that Peterson is indeed significantly more effective than an average NFL starter at the goal line. But we kind of knew that already... if he wasn't, he probably wouldn't have gotten 42 goal line carries over that span.

3. On the number of goal line carries:

While Peterson had 42 goal line carries over the past 3 seasons, note that Chester Taylor had 21, other RBs (Tahi & Richardson) had 3, and QBs (Frerotte & Jackson) had 5. Peterson only had 59% of the team's goal line carries over that span. So there would seem to be plenty of room for Gerhart and others to get some carries without taking a lot away from Peterson.

As for last season specifically, Peterson had 30 goal line carries, but others combined for 9. So Peterson had about 77% of the goal line carries. I don't see any compelling reason to believe Gerhart will get more than 25% of the goal line carries, which would basically maintain Peterson's percentage from last season.

I think a better question with regard to Peterson's fantasy performance this year is whether or not the team will get 57 goal line opportunities again (39 carries and 18 targets). That's a lot.

4. On Peterson's fumbling:

IMO the appropriate way to discuss his fumbling issue is in terms of fumbling rate, not total fumbles. For example, you note that he has more fumbles than any NFL RB over the past 3 years, but he also has many more carries than any other NFL RB other than Thomas Jones. Peterson has 916 carries over that span, and only three other RBs (Jones, Tomlinson, Jackson) have more than 790 over that period... big gap. Now, maybe his fumbling rate is also the worst, I don't know.

Plus, fumbles lost are actually more important IMO. It's harder to find that data in a format handy for comparing all RBs, but we know Peterson lost 13 of those 20 fumbles... on 999 touches. So his lost fumble rate is 1.3%. Meanwhile, he has 5313 total yards and 41 TDs on those touches. Only 4 others (LT, MJD, Deangelo, and Addai) are within 10 TDs of his total (LT actually had 42), but Peterson has at least almost 1000 yards more than all of them.

The Vikings are not going to stop giving Peterson the ball at the goal line or anywhere else.
#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.#2 I stand corrected. His conversion rate has been better than I gave him credit for. 50% is well above average. Part of that is excellent run-blocking though and I tend to think other backs in the league might have done as well. No clear evidence to support that though, so I concede here.

#3 We obviously differ here. I do think there is a reason to give another back goal-line opportunities and I think Gerhart was brought in partially to do just that. Taylor was basically awful on the goal-line - it just wasn't his strength. Gerhart is another story. If the team was strictly looking for you basic back-up, I think they may have gone in a another direction with a back. But I do agree that the massive number of opportunities the team generated last year is unlikely to be repeated.

#4. This one is a soft-ball. Peterson's fumble per touch over the last three years has been the worst by far PER TOUCH of any back in the league with 500+ total carries. Basically, he's the worst starter in the league when it comes to fumble rate AND lost fumble rate. No one else is even close. There are some guys who for short spans and limited touches might be close, but as a starter (let alone a superstar) he's the worst.

Overall, #2 does weaken my argument considerably, but I still think Gerhart was drafted with an intended role, and I think goal-line duty will be part of it (at least more than Taylor was used there).

 
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
IMO this post is pretty far off base.1. On the first bolded point above:

Of Peterson's 20 career (regular season) fumbles, he lost 13. Of those 13 lost fumbles, 2 came in the red zone but 0 came inside the opponent's 10 yard line. So if you are discussing goal line carries, his fumbling has not been a problem.

2. On the second bolded point above:

Over the past 3 seasons, 31 RBs have had 20 or more carries at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Of those 31 RBs, only Michael Turner and Lendale White had conversion rates better than Peterson's 50% rate. The worst rate among the group was Forte's 21.2%, so there is a decent spread. And some of those 31 players - like White, Fargas, Graham, Morris, McClain, etc. - aren't starters... meaning there are starters not even on the list.

Drop the threshold to all RBs with 10 or more carries at the goal line over the past 3 seasons, and the group expands to 64 RBs. Two more, Ricky Williams (on 16 carries) and Duckett (on 13 carries), have better conversion rates than Peterson, but the rest are lower, many by quite a bit. The lowest rate drops to 10% (Fred Jackson :X ).

IMO all of this shows that Peterson is indeed significantly more effective than an average NFL starter at the goal line. But we kind of knew that already... if he wasn't, he probably wouldn't have gotten 42 goal line carries over that span.

3. On the number of goal line carries:

While Peterson had 42 goal line carries over the past 3 seasons, note that Chester Taylor had 21, other RBs (Tahi & Richardson) had 3, and QBs (Frerotte & Jackson) had 5. Peterson only had 59% of the team's goal line carries over that span. So there would seem to be plenty of room for Gerhart and others to get some carries without taking a lot away from Peterson.

As for last season specifically, Peterson had 30 goal line carries, but others combined for 9. So Peterson had about 77% of the goal line carries. I don't see any compelling reason to believe Gerhart will get more than 25% of the goal line carries, which would basically maintain Peterson's percentage from last season.

I think a better question with regard to Peterson's fantasy performance this year is whether or not the team will get 57 goal line opportunities again (39 carries and 18 targets). That's a lot.

4. On Peterson's fumbling:

IMO the appropriate way to discuss his fumbling issue is in terms of fumbling rate, not total fumbles. For example, you note that he has more fumbles than any NFL RB over the past 3 years, but he also has many more carries than any other NFL RB other than Thomas Jones. Peterson has 916 carries over that span, and only three other RBs (Jones, Tomlinson, Jackson) have more than 790 over that period... big gap. Now, maybe his fumbling rate is also the worst, I don't know.

Plus, fumbles lost are actually more important IMO. It's harder to find that data in a format handy for comparing all RBs, but we know Peterson lost 13 of those 20 fumbles... on 999 touches. So his lost fumble rate is 1.3%. Meanwhile, he has 5313 total yards and 41 TDs on those touches. Only 4 others (LT, MJD, Deangelo, and Addai) are within 10 TDs of his total (LT actually had 42), but Peterson has at least almost 1000 yards more than all of them.

The Vikings are not going to stop giving Peterson the ball at the goal line or anywhere else.
Holy :blackdot: Batman.
 
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#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.
Given the fact that the Vikings won all but one of the games he fumbled in last year, I guess we have different definitions of "back-breaker."
 
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ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
IMO this post is pretty far off base.1. On the first bolded point above:

Of Peterson's 20 career (regular season) fumbles, he lost 13. Of those 13 lost fumbles, 2 came in the red zone but 0 came inside the opponent's 10 yard line. So if you are discussing goal line carries, his fumbling has not been a problem.

2. On the second bolded point above:

Over the past 3 seasons, 31 RBs have had 20 or more carries at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Of those 31 RBs, only Michael Turner and Lendale White had conversion rates better than Peterson's 50% rate. The worst rate among the group was Forte's 21.2%, so there is a decent spread. And some of those 31 players - like White, Fargas, Graham, Morris, McClain, etc. - aren't starters... meaning there are starters not even on the list.

Drop the threshold to all RBs with 10 or more carries at the goal line over the past 3 seasons, and the group expands to 64 RBs. Two more, Ricky Williams (on 16 carries) and Duckett (on 13 carries), have better conversion rates than Peterson, but the rest are lower, many by quite a bit. The lowest rate drops to 10% (Fred Jackson :thumbup: ).

IMO all of this shows that Peterson is indeed significantly more effective than an average NFL starter at the goal line. But we kind of knew that already... if he wasn't, he probably wouldn't have gotten 42 goal line carries over that span.

3. On the number of goal line carries:

While Peterson had 42 goal line carries over the past 3 seasons, note that Chester Taylor had 21, other RBs (Tahi & Richardson) had 3, and QBs (Frerotte & Jackson) had 5. Peterson only had 59% of the team's goal line carries over that span. So there would seem to be plenty of room for Gerhart and others to get some carries without taking a lot away from Peterson.

As for last season specifically, Peterson had 30 goal line carries, but others combined for 9. So Peterson had about 77% of the goal line carries. I don't see any compelling reason to believe Gerhart will get more than 25% of the goal line carries, which would basically maintain Peterson's percentage from last season.

I think a better question with regard to Peterson's fantasy performance this year is whether or not the team will get 57 goal line opportunities again (39 carries and 18 targets). That's a lot.

4. On Peterson's fumbling:

IMO the appropriate way to discuss his fumbling issue is in terms of fumbling rate, not total fumbles. For example, you note that he has more fumbles than any NFL RB over the past 3 years, but he also has many more carries than any other NFL RB other than Thomas Jones. Peterson has 916 carries over that span, and only three other RBs (Jones, Tomlinson, Jackson) have more than 790 over that period... big gap. Now, maybe his fumbling rate is also the worst, I don't know.

Plus, fumbles lost are actually more important IMO. It's harder to find that data in a format handy for comparing all RBs, but we know Peterson lost 13 of those 20 fumbles... on 999 touches. So his lost fumble rate is 1.3%. Meanwhile, he has 5313 total yards and 41 TDs on those touches. Only 4 others (LT, MJD, Deangelo, and Addai) are within 10 TDs of his total (LT actually had 42), but Peterson has at least almost 1000 yards more than all of them.

The Vikings are not going to stop giving Peterson the ball at the goal line or anywhere else.
Very :shrug:
 
#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.
Given the fact that the Vikings won all but one of the games he fumbled in last year, I guess we have different definitions of "back-breaker."
Well, he fumbled twice in the playoff game they lost that prevented them from going to the Superbowl (the game, not the fumbles directly necessarily).Look, I'm not trying to argue that Peterson is anything less than a superb talent. I'm just saying the guy fumbles. A LOT. Whether you do the head in sand thing or not, it's an issue. And if you don't think the coaching staff has noticed this, you are kidding yourself. No, they are not going to "bench" him for it, he's way too good. But that doesn't mean they won't devise roles for other players in situations where it is extra critical to hang on to the ball, and where you don't need to worry about a long gainer (i.e. the goal-line) that Peterson brings to the table so admirably.
 
Holy Schneikes said:
Just Win Baby said:
Holy Schneikes said:
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
IMO this post is pretty far off base.1. On the first bolded point above:

Of Peterson's 20 career (regular season) fumbles, he lost 13. Of those 13 lost fumbles, 2 came in the red zone but 0 came inside the opponent's 10 yard line. So if you are discussing goal line carries, his fumbling has not been a problem.

2. On the second bolded point above:

Over the past 3 seasons, 31 RBs have had 20 or more carries at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Of those 31 RBs, only Michael Turner and Lendale White had conversion rates better than Peterson's 50% rate. The worst rate among the group was Forte's 21.2%, so there is a decent spread. And some of those 31 players - like White, Fargas, Graham, Morris, McClain, etc. - aren't starters... meaning there are starters not even on the list.

Drop the threshold to all RBs with 10 or more carries at the goal line over the past 3 seasons, and the group expands to 64 RBs. Two more, Ricky Williams (on 16 carries) and Duckett (on 13 carries), have better conversion rates than Peterson, but the rest are lower, many by quite a bit. The lowest rate drops to 10% (Fred Jackson :lmao: ).

IMO all of this shows that Peterson is indeed significantly more effective than an average NFL starter at the goal line. But we kind of knew that already... if he wasn't, he probably wouldn't have gotten 42 goal line carries over that span.

3. On the number of goal line carries:

While Peterson had 42 goal line carries over the past 3 seasons, note that Chester Taylor had 21, other RBs (Tahi & Richardson) had 3, and QBs (Frerotte & Jackson) had 5. Peterson only had 59% of the team's goal line carries over that span. So there would seem to be plenty of room for Gerhart and others to get some carries without taking a lot away from Peterson.

As for last season specifically, Peterson had 30 goal line carries, but others combined for 9. So Peterson had about 77% of the goal line carries. I don't see any compelling reason to believe Gerhart will get more than 25% of the goal line carries, which would basically maintain Peterson's percentage from last season.

I think a better question with regard to Peterson's fantasy performance this year is whether or not the team will get 57 goal line opportunities again (39 carries and 18 targets). That's a lot.

4. On Peterson's fumbling:

IMO the appropriate way to discuss his fumbling issue is in terms of fumbling rate, not total fumbles. For example, you note that he has more fumbles than any NFL RB over the past 3 years, but he also has many more carries than any other NFL RB other than Thomas Jones. Peterson has 916 carries over that span, and only three other RBs (Jones, Tomlinson, Jackson) have more than 790 over that period... big gap. Now, maybe his fumbling rate is also the worst, I don't know.

Plus, fumbles lost are actually more important IMO. It's harder to find that data in a format handy for comparing all RBs, but we know Peterson lost 13 of those 20 fumbles... on 999 touches. So his lost fumble rate is 1.3%. Meanwhile, he has 5313 total yards and 41 TDs on those touches. Only 4 others (LT, MJD, Deangelo, and Addai) are within 10 TDs of his total (LT actually had 42), but Peterson has at least almost 1000 yards more than all of them.

The Vikings are not going to stop giving Peterson the ball at the goal line or anywhere else.
#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.#2 I stand corrected. His conversion rate has been better than I gave him credit for. 50% is well above average. Part of that is excellent run-blocking though and I tend to think other backs in the league might have done as well. No clear evidence to support that though, so I concede here.

#3 We obviously differ here. I do think there is a reason to give another back goal-line opportunities and I think Gerhart was brought in partially to do just that. Taylor was basically awful on the goal-line - it just wasn't his strength. Gerhart is another story. If the team was strictly looking for you basic back-up, I think they may have gone in a another direction with a back. But I do agree that the massive number of opportunities the team generated last year is unlikely to be repeated.

#4. This one is a soft-ball. Peterson's fumble per touch over the last three years has been the worst by far PER TOUCH of any back in the league with 500+ total carries. Basically, he's the worst starter in the league when it comes to fumble rate AND lost fumble rate. No one else is even close. There are some guys who for short spans and limited touches might be close, but as a starter (let alone a superstar) he's the worst.

Overall, #2 does weaken my argument considerably, but I still think Gerhart was drafted with an intended role, and I think goal-line duty will be part of it (at least more than Taylor was used there).
1. Again, you are incorrect. Peterson has not "coughed it up for sure" on the goal line. He has never fumbled inside the opponent's 10 yard line (in the regular season, anyway). All of his fumbles occurred away from the goal line.2. Actually, there is some pretty compelling evidence to suggest it is Peterson and not the Vikings' run blocking that is responsible for his excellent conversion rate. Over the past 3 seasons, Peterson has 21 TDs on 42 carries (50%) at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Over the same period, other Vikings' RBs have 5 TDs on 24 carries (20.8%). That was mostly Chester Taylor (5 TDs in 21 carries). That doesn't mean some other backs in the league couldn't have done as well as Peterson, but it does suggest it wasn't the run blocking.

 
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haterade said:
Could Percy Harvin fill the 3rd down back role? Or at least supplement it?
IMO he will get part of that role. I doubt he'll get terribly close to the 93 carries that Taylor had last season... Harvin had only 15 carries himself. But I do think he will get considerably more carries, and I think he'll get some of Taylor's 44 catches out of the backfield, too.
 
Holy Schneikes said:
Just Win Baby said:
Holy Schneikes said:
ADP had 30 goal-line rushes last year, more than any back has gotten in the last 5 years in a single season. He scored FOURTEEN of his EIGHTEEN TDs with those opportunities. And while he has been reasonably effective in that role in terms of conversion rate (though not spectacular), his fumbles in that situation were absolute backbreakers for his team.

If all of the sudden another guy is getting half or more of those opportunities (which I could easily see happening), I would absolutely be concerned about the impact to his overall fantasy performance. Half of his 14 goal-line TDs (assuming the conversion rate stays the same and the team matches its ridiculous number of goal-line rushes next year which it probably won't), would be 7 TDs, and that's a lot of fantasy scratch.

So the question in my mind is "Will Gerhart be the part time or even primary goal-line back for Minnesota next year and going forward?".

Seeing how Peterson has 20 fumbles in three years (more than any back in the NFL in that span by far), and has not been significantly more effective than an average NFL starter in those situations, while Gerhart happens to be by all accounts very very good in those situations (and coincidentally had ZERO fumbles to go along with 27 TDs in 12 games last year), my answer to that question is a resounding "yes".
IMO this post is pretty far off base.1. On the first bolded point above:

Of Peterson's 20 career (regular season) fumbles, he lost 13. Of those 13 lost fumbles, 2 came in the red zone but 0 came inside the opponent's 10 yard line. So if you are discussing goal line carries, his fumbling has not been a problem.

2. On the second bolded point above:

Over the past 3 seasons, 31 RBs have had 20 or more carries at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Of those 31 RBs, only Michael Turner and Lendale White had conversion rates better than Peterson's 50% rate. The worst rate among the group was Forte's 21.2%, so there is a decent spread. And some of those 31 players - like White, Fargas, Graham, Morris, McClain, etc. - aren't starters... meaning there are starters not even on the list.

Drop the threshold to all RBs with 10 or more carries at the goal line over the past 3 seasons, and the group expands to 64 RBs. Two more, Ricky Williams (on 16 carries) and Duckett (on 13 carries), have better conversion rates than Peterson, but the rest are lower, many by quite a bit. The lowest rate drops to 10% (Fred Jackson :X ).

IMO all of this shows that Peterson is indeed significantly more effective than an average NFL starter at the goal line. But we kind of knew that already... if he wasn't, he probably wouldn't have gotten 42 goal line carries over that span.

3. On the number of goal line carries:

While Peterson had 42 goal line carries over the past 3 seasons, note that Chester Taylor had 21, other RBs (Tahi & Richardson) had 3, and QBs (Frerotte & Jackson) had 5. Peterson only had 59% of the team's goal line carries over that span. So there would seem to be plenty of room for Gerhart and others to get some carries without taking a lot away from Peterson.

As for last season specifically, Peterson had 30 goal line carries, but others combined for 9. So Peterson had about 77% of the goal line carries. I don't see any compelling reason to believe Gerhart will get more than 25% of the goal line carries, which would basically maintain Peterson's percentage from last season.

I think a better question with regard to Peterson's fantasy performance this year is whether or not the team will get 57 goal line opportunities again (39 carries and 18 targets). That's a lot.

4. On Peterson's fumbling:

IMO the appropriate way to discuss his fumbling issue is in terms of fumbling rate, not total fumbles. For example, you note that he has more fumbles than any NFL RB over the past 3 years, but he also has many more carries than any other NFL RB other than Thomas Jones. Peterson has 916 carries over that span, and only three other RBs (Jones, Tomlinson, Jackson) have more than 790 over that period... big gap. Now, maybe his fumbling rate is also the worst, I don't know.

Plus, fumbles lost are actually more important IMO. It's harder to find that data in a format handy for comparing all RBs, but we know Peterson lost 13 of those 20 fumbles... on 999 touches. So his lost fumble rate is 1.3%. Meanwhile, he has 5313 total yards and 41 TDs on those touches. Only 4 others (LT, MJD, Deangelo, and Addai) are within 10 TDs of his total (LT actually had 42), but Peterson has at least almost 1000 yards more than all of them.

The Vikings are not going to stop giving Peterson the ball at the goal line or anywhere else.
#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.#2 I stand corrected. His conversion rate has been better than I gave him credit for. 50% is well above average. Part of that is excellent run-blocking though and I tend to think other backs in the league might have done as well. No clear evidence to support that though, so I concede here.

#3 We obviously differ here. I do think there is a reason to give another back goal-line opportunities and I think Gerhart was brought in partially to do just that. Taylor was basically awful on the goal-line - it just wasn't his strength. Gerhart is another story. If the team was strictly looking for you basic back-up, I think they may have gone in a another direction with a back. But I do agree that the massive number of opportunities the team generated last year is unlikely to be repeated.

#4. This one is a soft-ball. Peterson's fumble per touch over the last three years has been the worst by far PER TOUCH of any back in the league with 500+ total carries. Basically, he's the worst starter in the league when it comes to fumble rate AND lost fumble rate. No one else is even close. There are some guys who for short spans and limited touches might be close, but as a starter (let alone a superstar) he's the worst.

Overall, #2 does weaken my argument considerably, but I still think Gerhart was drafted with an intended role, and I think goal-line duty will be part of it (at least more than Taylor was used there).
1. Again, you are incorrect. Peterson has not "coughed it up for sure" on the goal line. He has never fumbled inside the opponent's 10 yard line (in the regular season, anyway). All of his fumbles occurred away from the goal line.2. Actually, there is some pretty compelling evidence to suggest it is Peterson and not the Vikings' run blocking that is responsible for his excellent conversion rate. Over the past 3 seasons, Peterson has 21 TDs on 42 carries (50%) at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Over the same period, other Vikings' RBs have 5 TDs on 24 carries (20.8%). That was mostly Chester Taylor (5 TDs in 21 carries). That doesn't mean some other backs in the league couldn't have done as well as Peterson, but it does suggest it wasn't the run blocking.
1. I didn't go back and research the situations for every single one of them (too much time :yucky: ), but it would seem rather odd that he somehow is not able to hold on to the ball in the middle of the field, but can on the ends. Like I said before, it can happen at any time and in any situation, and it is NEVER good. Whether he has lost one right on either goal-line yet is fairly irrelevant - the possibility is there.2. All that really shows for sure is that he is better than Chester Taylor. I am happy to grant you that he is much better than Chester Taylor on the goal-line. For any other replacement, we just don't know for sure. But I've already agreed that he's probably better than average. Could Gerhart possibly be better than average too? And if he doesn't fumble, and long runs don't matter in the least, why not give him those carries?

I'm out. You make a good point that he is great player and effective on the goal-line. You also point out rightfully, that fumbles directly in the goal-line have not seemed to be a huge issue in particular. Both fair points. What I'm saying is that he fumbles the ball more than any starter in the league (any way you choose to slice the data), and it's not close. The fact that the team drafted a guy (fairly highly) who doesn't seem to fumble AT ALL, and also excels in short yardage situations leads me to put two and two together and believe that Gerhart will at the very least be auditioned for that role. I don't think it's a 100% done deal, it's just what I think based on the circumstances.

 
Raider Nation said:
Explain why someone should burn a 6th round pick for a handcuff of a player that has started 30 out of 32 games the last two years?
So because a player hasn't gotten hurt, that means he can't get hurt?You could have said the same thing about Tom Brady entering 2008.

"Why should I draft Matt Cassel? Brady has missed one game in the past 7 years."
Ok...you go burn a 6th round pick on a handcuff and let us know how that turns out for ya. :(
Superb retort. :wub:
A hell of a lot better than the crap you spewed out.
Both of you please be a lot cooler if you want to keep posting here. This catfight stuff needs to be turned way down in the Shark Pool. TIA.

J

 
I was browsing Toby's thread after he was drafted. Most people had a "ho-hum" reaction.

I'm not so sure.

Peterson's fumbling issues are well documented. Gerhart really isn't a special receiver or anything, which makes me think that in addition to spelling AP from time to time, he was drafted with the intention of getting a lot of looks at the goal line. He was a productive BEAST at the stripe in college.

:lol:

Nobody else is concerned a little bit?
with ADP's 9 game streak of failing to rush for 100 yards and his fumbling issues, this is more than just a wake-up call for him...I think Gerhart takes a lot of the goal line work , a lot of the 3rd-n-short calls, and ADP sees a spike in his recs...

Gerhart is one ADP injury away from being a stud RB bull-in-a-china-shop type of runner behind a beast of an o-line...

talk about a mandatory handcuff, wow.if you own ADP, you must draft Gerhart..

 
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1. Again, you are incorrect. Peterson has not "coughed it up for sure" on the goal line. He has never fumbled inside the opponent's 10 yard line (in the regular season, anyway). All of his fumbles occurred away from the goal line.2. Actually, there is some pretty compelling evidence to suggest it is Peterson and not the Vikings' run blocking that is responsible for his excellent conversion rate. Over the past 3 seasons, Peterson has 21 TDs on 42 carries (50%) at the goal line (defined as opponent's 5 yard line and closer). Over the same period, other Vikings' RBs have 5 TDs on 24 carries (20.8%). That was mostly Chester Taylor (5 TDs in 21 carries). That doesn't mean some other backs in the league couldn't have done as well as Peterson, but it does suggest it wasn't the run blocking.
1. I didn't go back and research the situations for every single one of them (too much time :own3d: ), but it would seem rather odd that he somehow is not able to hold on to the ball in the middle of the field, but can on the ends. Like I said before, it can happen at any time and in any situation, and it is NEVER good. Whether he has lost one right on either goal-line yet is fairly irrelevant - the possibility is there.2. All that really shows for sure is that he is better than Chester Taylor. I am happy to grant you that he is much better than Chester Taylor on the goal-line. For any other replacement, we just don't know for sure. But I've already agreed that he's probably better than average. Could Gerhart possibly be better than average too? And if he doesn't fumble, and long runs don't matter in the least, why not give him those carries?I'm out. You make a good point that he is great player and effective on the goal-line. You also point out rightfully, that fumbles directly in the goal-line have not seemed to be a huge issue in particular. Both fair points. What I'm saying is that he fumbles the ball more than any starter in the league (any way you choose to slice the data), and it's not close. The fact that the team drafted a guy (fairly highly) who doesn't seem to fumble AT ALL, and also excels in short yardage situations leads me to put two and two together and believe that Gerhart will at the very least be auditioned for that role. I don't think it's a 100% done deal, it's just what I think based on the circumstances.
On point #2, anyone giving credit for anything to the Vikings O-line is just sloppy logic at this point. Either they're living in the past and thinking of three years ago, or they're basing their opinions on Madden. The Vikings O-line was well below average last year. Every single yard and touchdown Peterson got last year he got entirely on his own. This has been covered ad nauseum on this board and to claim the Vikings O-line was responsible for anything good in the running game last year shows a real lack of being in touch with the situation being discussed here.
Gerhart is one ADP injury away from being a stud RB bull-in-a-china-shop type of runner behind a beast of an o-line...
Again, it's clear that you weren't paying attention to Minnesota or the discussions about them last year.This sort of reminds me of the Sjax/Leonard situation a few years ago (the fact that both backups are white running backs is a total coincidence, I swear). Sjax put up a good ypc in that offense (this was back before StL was as bad as they are now) but as soon as he got hurt and Leonard came in he was completely useless. This is the same kind of reality check you'll get in Minnesota if Peterson were to go down. This isn't a "plug and play and you'll get AD numbers" situation here. You're going to get production that equates with the talent level of the running back.Chester Taylor averaged 3.5ypc and was 21% at the goaline in this offense last year. You can say "Chester Taylor" all you want but he is widely regarded as a pretty good running back, and a second round rookie is in no way a sure-fire upgrade to that.
 
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Gerhart is one ADP injury away from being a stud RB bull-in-a-china-shop type of runner behind a beast of an o-line...
Like FreBaGel posted, the MN line is far from being beastly nowadays. Watching the games, they looked downright bad at times with Peterson getting piled up on in the backfield.I own Peterson in a league and I'm really worried about him losing TDs now...
 
I see Gerhart as a handcuff at this time and no more. The team drafted him because they need a high quality backup to ADP, but his role is going to be limited to giving ADP a blow and to filling in if he is injured. Since ADP is young it could be years before he gets a serious shot.

 
Holy Schneikes said:
#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.
Given the fact that the Vikings won all but one of the games he fumbled in last year, I guess we have different definitions of "back-breaker."
Well, he fumbled twice in the playoff game they lost that prevented them from going to the Superbowl (the game, not the fumbles directly necessarily).Look, I'm not trying to argue that Peterson is anything less than a superb talent. I'm just saying the guy fumbles. A LOT. Whether you do the head in sand thing or not, it's an issue. And if you don't think the coaching staff has noticed this, you are kidding yourself. No, they are not going to "bench" him for it, he's way too good. But that doesn't mean they won't devise roles for other players in situations where it is extra critical to hang on to the ball, and where you don't need to worry about a long gainer (i.e. the goal-line) that Peterson brings to the table so admirably.
But as others have pointed out, AP's as good as it gets at converting at the goal line as well. It's not just the "long gainers" he excels at. If the Vikings are on the goal line, HE gives them the BEST CHANCE to convert it. So pulling him for an unproven rookie makes zero sense. Also, just because a guy is good in college at something does not mean it will translate in the NFL. Gerhart has proven nothing. What reason do the Vikings have to put a rookie in at the goal line if they have the best person in the league at that? The argument just does not make sense.
 
You make a good point that he is great player and effective on the goal-line. You also point out rightfully, that fumbles directly in the goal-line have not seemed to be a huge issue in particular. Both fair points. What I'm saying is that he fumbles the ball more than any starter in the league (any way you choose to slice the data), and it's not close. The fact that the team drafted a guy (fairly highly) who doesn't seem to fumble AT ALL, and also excels in short yardage situations leads me to put two and two together and believe that Gerhart will at the very least be auditioned for that role. I don't think it's a 100% done deal, it's just what I think based on the circumstances.
With regard to the bolded, from today's FBG email:
Like Peterson, Gerhart has trouble holding onto the football sometimes and had six fumbles lost last year for Stanford
I think it's pretty clear Gerhart won't be replacing Peterson due to fumbling issues.
 
You make a good point that he is great player and effective on the goal-line. You also point out rightfully, that fumbles directly in the goal-line have not seemed to be a huge issue in particular. Both fair points. What I'm saying is that he fumbles the ball more than any starter in the league (any way you choose to slice the data), and it's not close. The fact that the team drafted a guy (fairly highly) who doesn't seem to fumble AT ALL, and also excels in short yardage situations leads me to put two and two together and believe that Gerhart will at the very least be auditioned for that role. I don't think it's a 100% done deal, it's just what I think based on the circumstances.
With regard to the bolded, from today's FBG email:
Like Peterson, Gerhart has trouble holding onto the football sometimes and had six fumbles lost last year for Stanford
I think it's pretty clear Gerhart won't be replacing Peterson due to fumbling issues.
That surprised me because on the radio here one day they said he never fumbled in college. I checked it at Sportsline and according to their stats FBG is right.
 
Q: The Stanford media guide has you with zero fumbles. Is that accurate?Gerhart: No, that’s not accurate. I think I had six fumbles over the last two years.
 
1. I didn't go back and research the situations for every single one of them (too much time :unsure: ), but it would seem rather odd that he somehow is not able to hold on to the ball in the middle of the field, but can on the ends. Like I said before, it can happen at any time and in any situation, and it is NEVER good. Whether he has lost one right on either goal-line yet is fairly irrelevant - the possibility is there.
It's actually a fairly simple explanation. AP has some strong fricken hands. Every reporter raves about their strength. In a goal line situation where the first concern on his mind is ball protection, it is almost impossible to rip the ball away from him. His fumbling problems come from a lack of focus. When he's in between the 20s, he's so focused on breaking a big play that he tends to hold the ball away from his body. This obviously makes it easy for defenders to swipe or rip away the ball. If he would make ball control a more primary focus, then the fumbling issues would probably go away, or at least lessen. However, unless the Vikings O line turns back into the monster that a lot of people still believe it to be(not many people were watching the Vikings last year apparently), then AP isn't likely going to get pulled from the goal line very often.
 
A lot of misconceptions from people about the Vikings and their personel.

1.)What player had the most touchdowns last year and wasn't a QB?

A.D. that's who. He is elite, no question about it. Like posted above the vast majority came from inside the five. This was a result of below average run blocking and A.D. missing his "second gear" almost the entire season because of a nagging injuries. If he could do that with all of the negative variables that affected him then it would be insane to think that toby will cut into his workload in even a minor way.

2.)Toby Gerhart IS NOT Mike Alstott. HE WILL NEVER BE CONVERTED TO A FULLBACK, and the coaches have stated this fact ad nauseam! I'm pretty sure that those assertion being made by numerous people will drive me mad before the season even starts. I just hate the fact that everyone has to put him in a box and slap a label on him. If anything he's a lot closer to SJax then he is to Alstott. Alstott was something like 20lbs of muscle heavier then Gerhart and ran in a completely different style.

This is a run first team and as a result their are too many carries for any one back to be able to handle. We needed someone to be able to "give A.D. a blow"(Gerhart actually said this :rofl:). I do actually think that Gerhart will make a solid handcuff this year. This will be the second year our O-line has been a unit, so I think they will have had that time to gel. Anyone that listens to Sulli monday mornings on 93X knows that the line feels it was horrible run blocking and for the most part they started working on getting better the day after the NFCC game. My one concern is our physically gifted LT, because it seems Big Mac is a record producer that happens to work as a football player. This unit has all the tools to be elite and I think now that Loadholt and Sulli got some time it they will return to at least being above average, barring major injury of course because they are VERY thin when it comes to depth.

 
He'll be MUCH more then a handcuff and AP owners should not be happy. They didn't trade up for insurance, they could've gotten that later. He'll see his share, especially at the goal line
Gerhart will get similar touches to what Chester Taylor did. Not an issue.
:moneybag:
He won't get close to as many touches as Chester did. And for those with short memories, Taylor saw a lot of red-zone looks in the 2008 season when ADP finished as the No. 3 fantasy back.
Not sure how you can predict that at this point. You could turn out to be correct, but the Vikes traded up in the second round to get him. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him getting Chester's cut of the carries.
 
#1 IMO, that has been as much luck as anything. He fumbles, a lot. He may not have LOST many on the goal-line, but he's coughed it up for sure. While my back-breaking comment should have been more general (rather than attached to goal-line situations) fumbling is a back-breaker nearly anywhere on the field.
Given the fact that the Vikings won all but one of the games he fumbled in last year, I guess we have different definitions of "back-breaker."
Well, he fumbled twice in the playoff game they lost that prevented them from going to the Superbowl (the game, not the fumbles directly necessarily).Look, I'm not trying to argue that Peterson is anything less than a superb talent. I'm just saying the guy fumbles. A LOT. Whether you do the head in sand thing or not, it's an issue. And if you don't think the coaching staff has noticed this, you are kidding yourself. No, they are not going to "bench" him for it, he's way too good. But that doesn't mean they won't devise roles for other players in situations where it is extra critical to hang on to the ball, and where you don't need to worry about a long gainer (i.e. the goal-line) that Peterson brings to the table so admirably.
But as others have pointed out, AP's as good as it gets at converting at the goal line as well. It's not just the "long gainers" he excels at. If the Vikings are on the goal line, HE gives them the BEST CHANCE to convert it. So pulling him for an unproven rookie makes zero sense. Also, just because a guy is good in college at something does not mean it will translate in the NFL. Gerhart has proven nothing. What reason do the Vikings have to put a rookie in at the goal line if they have the best person in the league at that? The argument just does not make sense.
They won't just give him the role, but if he does well in camp and then preseason and then they give him a chance in a game early in the season, he won't be "unproven" anymore. If he fails, he may not get another chance for a while. If he succeeds, even if he is only as good as ADP they might use in g/l situation to spare ADP's body. You take a lot of pounding in those situations. That's the main reason why I could see it happening.
 
Could Percy Harvin fill the 3rd down back role? Or at least supplement it?
Good call. Let everyone else try to figure out when to draft handcuffs that are going to sit on their bench all year. Sometimes the answer is too obvious. Percy will be a beast in ppr this year, 90+ catches, mark it down.
 
Could Percy Harvin fill the 3rd down back role? Or at least supplement it?
Good call. Let everyone else try to figure out when to draft handcuffs that are going to sit on their bench all year. Sometimes the answer is too obvious. Percy will be a beast in ppr this year, 90+ catches, mark it down.
This is highly unlikely. As a Vikings fan I love the guy, but as a fantasy football owner I know in my heart of hearts that he is toxic to any fantasy team. My main reasoning is the migrains. The problem is not going to go away, and you are fu#$ed if he's playing in a late game and your other lesser options play early. As it stands right now six of the ten games in the fantsy season will be later games and I'd expect the week 11 game against the Pack to be moved to a sunday night game if/when Brett comes back. That's a killer when you really have zero idea if Percy will play until the final injury report. On top of all that you must remember he is still third on the depth chart behind Syd and Berrian. Now Berrian didn't exactly light it up last year with his fifty five receptions, but the staff here pretty much gave him a pass because he played through injury. BB will be given ever opportunity to hold onto his job and then some, because they'd much rather have Percy playing out of the slot/backfield/return man. Not to mention the players like Shiancoe and A.D. becoming elite options in the pass game.If the loss of C.T. does translate into a higher load for Percy, then I would expect him to be used a bit more often in the backfield or in Secret Squirrel's gadget plays. He could very well end up with 90 touches but predicting anything north of 75 receptions even if you feel he will start every game and be a monster would be a mistake.
 
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Could Percy Harvin fill the 3rd down back role? Or at least supplement it?
Good call. Let everyone else try to figure out when to draft handcuffs that are going to sit on their bench all year. Sometimes the answer is too obvious. Percy will be a beast in ppr this year, 90+ catches, mark it down.
This is highly unlikely. As a Vikings fan I love the guy, but as a fantasy football owner I know in my heart of hearts that he is toxic to any fantasy team. My main reasoning is the migrains. The problem is not going to go away, and you are fu#$ed if he's playing in a late game and your other lesser options play early. As it stands right now six of the ten games in the fantsy season will be later games and I'd expect the week 11 game against the Pack to be moved to a sunday night game if/when Brett comes back. That's a killer when you really have zero idea if Percy will play until the final injury report. On top of all that you must remember he is still third on the depth chart behind Syd and Berrian. Now Berrian didn't exactly light it up last year with his fifty five receptions, but the staff here pretty much gave him a pass because he played through injury. BB will be given ever opportunity to hold onto his job and then some, because they'd much rather have Percy playing out of the slot/backfield/return man. Not to mention the players like Shiancoe and A.D. becoming elite options in the pass game.If the loss of C.T. does translate into a higher load for Percy, then I would expect him to be used a bit more often in the backfield or in Secret Squirrel's gadget plays. He could very well end up with 90 touches but predicting anything north of 75 receptions even if you feel he will start every game and be a monster would be a mistake.
:popcorn: Personally, I find it hard to believe they will run Harvin out of the backfield much because I don't think they want him to take a beating. They may try a few trick plays and reverses, maybe one or two a game, but he isn't going to be the regular third down back. How much play Gerhart gets will depend on how Gerhart develops. If he picks up the blocking scheme quickly and is effective when he gets chances I still think he will get the Taylor opportunities and maybe a few more goal line opportunities.It isn't that ADP can't do the job; it's that they don't want to risk wearing him out and injuring him. There is no way they want to give him more than the 360 carries he had in 2008, and I suspect they would rather keep it closer to the 314 he had last year. That's why they traded up to get Gerhart.
 
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