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Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Lobar
- Start date
Klimtology
Footballguy
Chester is a solid back while AP is spectacular. I expect them to split carries throughout the season. The only question is if Tavaris can sustain drives by completing 3rd down passes.There has been a lot of hype on Adrian Peterson lately, but splitting carries with Chester Taylor, how much of a prospect is he really? Do you think he will eventually take over this season as starter or will he be just learning the ropes?
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
April 28th 2007
suchislife
Footballguy
I'm certain that by 4:00 Sunday I'll be
for leaving points on my bench.There's no way in hell I end up getting this decision right....Peterson or Portis....Peterson or Portis....
sholditch
Footballguy
Not according to their depth chart:
http://www.vikings.com/TeamDepthChart.aspx
How many times do we have to see a veteran get carries over a talented rook to beleive in it. At best AP will start seeing a slim majority of carries in week 4 IF CT plays badly. If CT plays well, and we know he can, AP might be on the short-end of the stick all year, or at least until his play absolutely dictates that he supplants CT. As much as I would like to believe the hype, it's CT's job to lose
http://www.vikings.com/TeamDepthChart.aspx
How many times do we have to see a veteran get carries over a talented rook to beleive in it. At best AP will start seeing a slim majority of carries in week 4 IF CT plays badly. If CT plays well, and we know he can, AP might be on the short-end of the stick all year, or at least until his play absolutely dictates that he supplants CT. As much as I would like to believe the hype, it's CT's job to lose
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
And when has the vet had this much less talent than the rookie?
TenMidgets
Footballguy
I'm starting ADP over Marshawn Lynch, Foster, Norwood etc. and not looking back. The boy is a beast and the matchup is a good one!
packersfan
Footballguy
As Bush, Jones-Drew, Addai and Maroney showed last season, a rookie can still have some quality (and in the case of Bush and Jones-Drew in the second half of the season, considerably more) fantasy potential even in a timeshare with a veteran starter.
Wayne King
Footballguy
Do you start AP over Jones-Drew?
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Steelnation
Footballguy
Are you serious???
The guy in my league who draft Adrian Peterson is starting him over Rudi Johnson. I told him I couldn't bench Rudi, no matter who the Bengals are playing. This is too early to start Peterson. Later in the season, he will probably get the majority of the carries, but, right now, we don't know how things are going to play out in MIN.
The guy Im playing is starting him over LJ and his limited touches this week. Im not sure if I should thank or hit him.
steelcityman
Footballguy
AP is the man right now. I expect 70/30 split b/w him and Taylor.
Taylor will be a Raider or Buc next year.
Taylor will be a Raider or Buc next year.
EBF
Footballguy
Wayne King
Footballguy
Not really...
sholditch
Footballguy
Gosh, let's see. Foster/DWill immediately comes to mind. There's also the old and decrepit Dillon over Maroney last year. But you know what actual NFL coaches wanna see? Wins and consistency. If CT proves capable of providing those things he ain't going anywhere. If he doesn't, then it's open for AP to take over. But you're kidding yourself if you think coaches make decisions on who to start solely based on talent.
Meat
Footballguy
I'm an AP owner, and honestly I believe this is the kind of projection you MUST reasonably have for him. Sure, if he shows something with his first 10 carries, maybe they stick with him, but remember he is a rookie! For all of the "he's electrifying/so much better than CT", he hasn't shown he can do it in a 'real' NFL game yet. Just remember the hype surrounding other highly touted backs coming out in their first year, everyone would be wise to temper their expectations for a couple of weeks until we really see what kind of NFL, not college, talent AP is. Immediately projecting him into a 70/30 split (or even 50/50) is a bit presumptuous. I certainly HOPE that he gets a majority of carries, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him around 10 touches this week.
I think I am going to take the cautious approach w/ my big $$ team and just let AP sit until at least week 2 (@DET).
My other RB2 candidate (Edge James) plays @ SF, who gave up the most points in the league last year, so I will take my chances with Edge. Especially considering how little we know about the Vikings offense--can Tarvaris put a drive together? will he even need to with those RBs behind him?.. although I do like them to win and they are my survivor pick this week.
For you Peterson owners with viable options, I say WAIT UNTIL WEEK 2. In Detroit Peterson will make the Lions look really really bad. 2 TDs mark it down.
My other RB2 candidate (Edge James) plays @ SF, who gave up the most points in the league last year, so I will take my chances with Edge. Especially considering how little we know about the Vikings offense--can Tarvaris put a drive together? will he even need to with those RBs behind him?.. although I do like them to win and they are my survivor pick this week.
For you Peterson owners with viable options, I say WAIT UNTIL WEEK 2. In Detroit Peterson will make the Lions look really really bad. 2 TDs mark it down.
EBF
Footballguy
A few things:
1. Peterson is MUCH better than Taylor. It's not a Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson situation where the incumbent is arguably the better player. The talent gap between these two is immense.
2. The Vikings are going to be awful this season. Their future is Peterson. Given that they'll be out of the playoff race by week 8, they have additional incentive to let the young fella learn his ABC's so that he's ready to take over when this team is actually ready to compete.
1. Peterson is MUCH better than Taylor. It's not a Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson situation where the incumbent is arguably the better player. The talent gap between these two is immense.
2. The Vikings are going to be awful this season. Their future is Peterson. Given that they'll be out of the playoff race by week 8, they have additional incentive to let the young fella learn his ABC's so that he's ready to take over when this team is actually ready to compete.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
Yep, CT only rushed for 1,200 yards last year - what a slouch
The Vikings would be dowright silly let a top 10 rusher from last year touch the ball. Heck, they should have traded him already. Seriously, I understand that AP is talented (and injury prone). Look at Benson, MJD, DWill, Maroney, etc. They all had to work behind less talented vets- some are still in RBBC (some are even still lower on the depth charts). Who would you rather have had last year? C.Taylor - Fragile Fred - DeShaun Foster or Corey Dillon? I get the AP love, but the CT hate is mind boggling. The dude rushed for more yards than Edge, F. Taylor, Dunn, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, and many others (well, all RBs except 8) and he's 27.Well, you are on the right track . . . talent is not the only factor that is used to determine playing time.This is a story that will have a bigger impact on Peterson's playing time than Taylor's talents:
http://www.startribune.com/510/story/1393396.html
Star players put people in the seats, and generate revenue. For better or worse, Peterson is now the face of the organization. They need him to step up and play a big-time role. There will be pressure on Childress to make sure that Peterson is highlighted.
Yes, winning will go along way towards generating revenue, but all things being close to equal, you focus on the star, and you phase out the veteran.
EBF
Footballguy
We'll see. But I don't think anyone who has seen these guys play could really come to the conclusion that Taylor is better. I also don't think the Vikings would've taken him at 1.07 without the intention of giving him every opportunity to earn major playing time right away. I expect him to take advantage of that opportunity.
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How about RBs drafted in the top ten? Since 2000:Bush -- pretty even split with Deuce, who was rather talented himselfCadillac -- started over PittmanBenson -- Thomas Jones startedRonnie Brown -- started over Ricky Williams (though who knows what would have happened without the suspension)LT -- started over (??)Jamal Lewis -- started over Priest HolmesThomas Jones -- started over Pittman, though Pittman got the job back later in the yearOnly one of the seven had a very minor role coming out of the gate.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
All I can say is you must be ignorant of how commited Childress is to running the ball. Everything he has done proves that. So no he does not have to wake up and say Eureka!! Maybe I should try to run the ball a lot since I have this strong offensive line and multiple quality RBs. This just in, that has been his plan for this offense all along. Childress even said as much before the Vikings went out and aquired Chester Taylor and Hutchinson last year.That you do not realize this is not that smart. Thus I recommend shelving your perspective.The Vikings will not abandon the running game regardless of the score and the defense will give the offense ample opportunity to run the ball close to 40 times a game in most contests and certainly against Atlanta. I think the thing that may hurt ADs opportunity more than anything is if the Vikings get too early a lead. At that point I see them using Chester and even MM to close out the game saving AD for later on and keeping him fresh. If the game is close the more likely I see AD getting carries to provide the offense a spark.As far as the guy projecting 10 carries for AD. I will take the over.GordonGekko said:
I completely agree with you on this one.It baffles me how so many people just assume that he will carry the load THIS WEEK. Peterson may be WAY more talented than Chester and surely some day we will see that, but week 1? Not that I think Benson is close to as talented as Peterson, but weren't the situations pretty similar? Chester signed last year (like TJ was before Benson) Chester had a very good year last year (like TJ had prior to Benson) and the odds are good they will at minimum share the load at first?I have AP on one of my teams and you better believe he is on the bench this week for me.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
I don't think 10 carriers is the ceiling by any means this weekend. The Vikings ran the ball 25 times a game last year, with Taylor avg 19 and the backups 6. So one could reasonably assume Peterson would get at a minimum 6 carries. Now I would adjust the fact that Peterson is no normal scrub backup like Pinner or Faison, so he would get at least a few more carries then that, say at least 4 of Chesters carries. That puts them at 15 to 10 split. That said, I think the Vikings as a whole will rush more against ATL then their avg 2006 game. Say at least 30 carries,in fact last season they rushed 33 times week 1. Projecting AP to get at least 13 carries when all is said I believe is not only reasonable but likely.
Looking at the preseason games, it seemed like Childress was using Taylor and Peterson on alternating drives unless one of them needed a breather. I would not be at all surprised if that's how he starts week 1.
Which means that the number of carries will probably depend on how successful each drive is. If APete is truly better, the drives when he's on the field should be more successful (on average), and he could have more carries even if he doesn't start.
Which means that the number of carries will probably depend on how successful each drive is. If APete is truly better, the drives when he's on the field should be more successful (on average), and he could have more carries even if he doesn't start.
PlayinHarder
Footballguy
All this talk has me worried. So would you start Peterson or would you go with Foster or Jones. I was with out a doubt going to go with Peterson, but with all this talk DFoster might get the thumbs up.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Bye week?
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I like Chester Taylor and expect him to get some work, but anyone thinking he's going to get a majority of the carries for very long is dreaming. AP is simply too talented. I see a 65/35 kind of split this season, something like Peterson getting 300 carries and Taylor getting 150.
zadok
Footballguy
More carries does not equal more fantasy points. I have no earthly idea how the carries will be split this week, but it won't matter. My gut tells me Peterson will get more touches, but most people can recognize that Peterson is far more explosive. IE he will do more with his chances than Taylor will and will end up with more fantasy points.I completely agree with you on this one.It baffles me how so many people just assume that he will carry the load THIS WEEK. Peterson may be WAY more talented than Chester and surely some day we will see that, but week 1? Not that I think Benson is close to as talented as Peterson, but weren't the situations pretty similar? Chester signed last year (like TJ was before Benson) Chester had a very good year last year (like TJ had prior to Benson) and the odds are good they will at minimum share the load at first?I have AP on one of my teams and you better believe he is on the bench this week for me.
I completely agree.I just don't see that being the case in week 1.
thehornet
Footballguy
No.
DoubleG
Footballguy
FYP.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In week 1 last year vs. the Panthers who are a much better defense than the Falcons the Vikings ran the ball 34 times (including brad johnson) for 86 yards 2.5 ypc. Chester Taylor had 31 of those carries and averaged 2.8 ypc.If that is not showing commitment to the run I do not know what is. The Vikings ran the ball 34 times and threw the ball 30 times.Now the Vikings have AD to share the load with Taylor against a lesser opponent. I can easily see the number of rushing plays being higher than 34.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
That was my pont. I expect lots of running, and people who think Peterson is going to get 10 carries or less are going to be in for a surprise, frankly I expect him to touch the ball close to 20 times. We shall see soon enough...
H.K.
Footballguy
I agree that the Vikings will be awful. However, I think that means they may actually give CT more carries as a result. Why burn out and beat up AP in a lost season? Save his body the wear and tear this year by grinding CT into a pulp and throwing him away after the season. Make AP the center piece next year. After 2007 they'll know if they need a QB or not, then they can do the things to build around AP needed for 2008 in the off-season and actually be competitive again.
I think the best you can reasonably hope for v. Atl is 12 carries for 60 and a TD. I'm expecting CT to get the bulk of the action b/t the 20's and all 3rd down action. I also expect Minn to give CT the 1st dibs on GL ops and then maybe let AP get a GL shot later in the game.
The tighter the game, the more we see CT. If it's a blow out either way, AP gets more looks.
m2c
The tighter the game, the more we see CT. If it's a blow out either way, AP gets more looks.
m2c
Disco Stu
Confirmed FBGal
This sounds reasonable, but has it ever actually happened?One counterpoint is that a Rookie of the Year award would be a bright point in an otherwise dismal season and would help sell 2008 season tickets.
I say you look for a situation similar to Dallas last year. Chester and AP will split at the beginning of the year and if one falters the other will benefit. AP is bigger and may become the goal line back with Chester running between the 20s. Week 1 is too early to count on that.
If AP can live up the the hype then he should be getting the majority of carries by the end of the year (aka FF playoffs). I expect the plan for AP is full-time starter next year. I have him as a possible late season stud. Once the Vikes are out of it, if AP has proven himself they should give him the carries to see how he handles the load. The Vikes will be out of it by week 10-12.
Use your other backs to get you to the playoffs and AP to carry you through as other RBs get rested for their own playoffs.
If AP can live up the the hype then he should be getting the majority of carries by the end of the year (aka FF playoffs). I expect the plan for AP is full-time starter next year. I have him as a possible late season stud. Once the Vikes are out of it, if AP has proven himself they should give him the carries to see how he handles the load. The Vikes will be out of it by week 10-12.
Use your other backs to get you to the playoffs and AP to carry you through as other RBs get rested for their own playoffs.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Exactly. Peterson will play at least as much as Reggie Bush did last year. Chester is no Deuce.
Disco Stu
Confirmed FBGal
Peterson is more talented than any of the guys you listed. Taylor was more productive last season than the vets you listed, but he also has fewer skins on the wall than a Dillon or F Taylor which makes him a little easier to push aside. Plus his team is worse.Yep, CT only rushed for 1,200 yards last year - what a slouchThe Vikings would be dowright silly let a top 10 rusher from last year touch the ball. Heck, they should have traded him already. Seriously, I understand that AP is talented (and injury prone). Look at Benson, MJD, DWill, Maroney, etc. They all had to work behind less talented vets- some are still in RBBC (some are even still lower on the depth charts). Who would you rather have had last year? C.Taylor - Fragile Fred - DeShaun Foster or Corey Dillon? I get the AP love, but the CT hate is mind boggling. The dude rushed for more yards than Edge, F. Taylor, Dunn, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, and many others (well, all RBs except 8) and he's 27.
packersfan
Footballguy
It won't hurt interest for this season either. If Peterson is the one bright spot in a lost season that's a huge marketing tool for the team to lean on. Instead of just giving up, now the team can market its future and promise that things will be better in the years to come with Peterson leading the way.As far as Week 1, Peterson gets at least 15 carries against the Falcons barring injury. I think Childress runs the ball at least 30 times and I think the split will be pretty even between Peterson and Taylor. And if Peterson gets at least 15 carries, I think he has the talent to provide some nice production. He's in my lineup this week.
