Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Adrian Peterson is the consensus #1 dynasty player - you can't find a ranking that doesn't have him at the top of the list. And while I agree that he's a very good back - I also think he's overrated at that lofty ranking. Here's why:

His NCAA career yards/carry was 5.43 - below the average for the 29 RBs drafted in the first round from 1998-2008 (5.75). In fact it ranks 19th.

And in his first two years in the NFL he has only slightly outperformed Chester Taylor:

5.16 y/c, 9.83 y/r and a TD/28 touches for ADP

4.83 y/c, 9.19 y/r and a TD/26 touches for Taylor

Checking Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking (which adjusts for down, distance and quality of defense for every rush by each player), we find that ADP's DVOA for 2007-2008 averaged 8.2% (simple average, not weighted) - solid, but not elite. While Taylor's was a respectable 3.4%. Which suggests that the raw stats above aren't a function of Taylor receiving higher-value touches.

I'd probably shrug off any of these measures in isolation, but collectively they suggest that Peterson is a pretty standard 1st round NFL RB who's playing behind a fantastic offensive line.

So... I'm looking for an explanation of what he's done that warrants his lofty ranking. Why should he be taken before players like Steven Jackson and MJD who have put up comparable numbers in much more difficult situations? Or the top tier WRs like Fitz, AJ and Calvin?

And while this is obviously challenging the conventional wisdom, it isn't meant to be pot-stirring. If you disagree I want to know why. What evidence do you have to support your position?

 

[todisco1]

What evidence do you have to support your position?

I've watched him play.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What evidence do you have to support your position?

I've watched him play.

Fair enough. But pretend (if you can imagine it) that I don't know you. And that (as impossible as this may seem) I have no idea if you can judge football talent or not. How would you convince me that he was a better player than other potentially great players that other people (on a football message board for example) claim are elite talents?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Adrian Peterson is the consensus #1 dynasty player - you can't find a ranking that doesn't have him at the top of the list. And while I agree that he's a very good back - I also think he's overrated at that lofty ranking. Here's why:

His NCAA career yards/carry was 5.43 - below the average for the 29 RBs drafted in the first round from 1998-2008 (5.75). In fact it ranks 19th.

And in his first two years in the NFL he has only slightly outperformed Chester Taylor:

5.16 y/c, 9.83 y/r and a TD/28 touches for ADP

4.83 y/c, 9.19 y/r and a TD/26 touches for Taylor

Checking Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking (which adjusts for down, distance and quality of defense for every rush by each player), we find that ADP's DVOA for 2007-2008 averaged 8.2% (simple average, not weighted) - solid, but not elite. While Taylor's was a respectable 3.4%. Which suggests that the raw stats above aren't a function of Taylor receiving higher-value touches.

I'd probably shrug off any of these measures in isolation, but collectively they suggest that Peterson is a pretty standard 1st round NFL RB who's playing behind a fantastic offensive line.

So... I'm looking for an explanation of what he's done that warrants his lofty ranking. Why should he be taken before players like Steven Jackson and MJD who have put up comparable numbers in much more difficult situations? Or the top tier WRs like Fitz, AJ and Calvin?

And while this is obviously challenging the conventional wisdom, it isn't meant to be pot-stirring. If you disagree I want to know why. What evidence do you have to support your position?

Brad Childress and Tarvaris Jackson

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Brad Childress and Tarvaris Jackson

Chester Taylor is coached by Vince Lombardi and has the advantage of playing with Joe Montana?Fail.

 

[LBH]

Id rather have Calvin Johnson in PPR

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Do want to be clear here... not suggesting Peterson's a bum or anything.

Just that he shouldn't be the consensus #1 dynasty player. Top ten - yes.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Id rather have Calvin Johnson in PPR

Not me, not with that organization.

 

[Chase Stuart]

He led the league in rushing in '08 and in rushing per game in '07.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The college YPC is easy, he was one of the very rare workhorse RBs in college, and YPC tends to come down with more carries. Also, he played on a team with QB problems throughout his entire college career and never had much of a passing threat. This wasn't Reggie Bush running against 5 and 6 man fronts because they needed a bunch of people back to cover their multiple WRs drafted in the top 10 overall being thrown to by their QB drafted in the top 10 overall. Oklahoma was Adrian Peterson, and defenses knew that.

I'm not sure how football outsider's DVOA formula works, but if it came to the conclusion that Adrian Peterson touches the ball more in good running situations then it is an absurdly screwed up formula. I've watched most Viking games the last two years and Taylor commonly ran draws on 3rd and long and Peterson ran in most short yardage situations (bad for your YPC). (EDIT: I just read how this formula works and it is unclear how it applies to this situation, especially with regards to YPC since it seems to give a bonus for being closer to the endzone).

In the games in which Taylor received 15+ touches the last two years, he eclipsed 4ypc in only 1 out of 3 tries. Peterson did it in 19 out of 24 tries.

 

[Matt Waldman]

I see the point and just based on the turnover in rankings every year, I wouldn't be at all surprised if All Day and the Burner wind up in the lower quarter of the top 12 if not out of the top 12 in 2009.

I like Maurice Jones Drew and I believe if he is given the keys to the offense in the way Reid finally did with Westbrook, he's capable of two or three top-five seasons at his position because his skill sets allow him to break some huge plays with decent QB and (presumably) healthier offensive line.

I know the more stats-intensive folks on this forum discount workload numbers as an indication of a player dropping off the following year, but I still consider it.

It's a tough choice to drop Peterson effectively out of your top three if you have that high a pick though. It's either foolish or gutsy, depending on the outcome...

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He led the league in rushing in '08 and in rushing per game in '07.

That's a good argument. I hadn't eyeballed the list of single-season leaders with this in mind. (ETA: although Chester Taylor finished 9th the year before ADP got into town.)The single-game rushing record is the argument I expected to see.

 

[Hawkeyeskin]

Id rather have Calvin Johnson in PPR

I'd take Fitzy over ADP also.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

In PPR, I would not even have Peterson top 5 overall. Either he can't catch or they don't throw it to him or both, either way, I don't care. He would need 20 TDs to be the top PPR back. He was the #9 RB last year in PPR leagues, behind guys like Slaton, Thomas Jones, MJD and even LT.

 

[Wadsworth]

Adrian Peterson is the consensus #1 dynasty player - you can't find a ranking that doesn't have him at the top of the list. And while I agree that he's a very good back - I also think he's overrated at that lofty ranking. Here's why:

His NCAA career yards/carry was 5.43 - below the average for the 29 RBs drafted in the first round from 1998-2008 (5.75). In fact it ranks 19th.

And in his first two years in the NFL he has only slightly outperformed Chester Taylor:

5.16 y/c, 9.83 y/r and a TD/28 touches for ADP

4.83 y/c, 9.19 y/r and a TD/26 touches for Taylor

Checking Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking (which adjusts for down, distance and quality of defense for every rush by each player), we find that ADP's DVOA for 2007-2008 averaged 8.2% (simple average, not weighted) - solid, but not elite. While Taylor's was a respectable 3.4%. Which suggests that the raw stats above aren't a function of Taylor receiving higher-value touches.

I'd probably shrug off any of these measures in isolation, but collectively they suggest that Peterson is a pretty standard 1st round NFL RB who's playing behind a fantastic offensive line.

So... I'm looking for an explanation of what he's done that warrants his lofty ranking. Why should he be taken before players like Steven Jackson and MJD who have put up comparable numbers in much more difficult situations? Or the top tier WRs like Fitz, AJ and Calvin?

And while this is obviously challenging the conventional wisdom, it isn't meant to be pot-stirring. If you disagree I want to know why. What evidence do you have to support your position?

Isn't that the answer to your question? Would you have avoided drafting E. Smith back in the day because he played behind a fantastic line?

 

[comfortably numb]

In PPR, I would not even have Peterson top 5 overall. Either he can't catch or they don't throw it to him or both, either way, I don't care. He would need 20 TDs to be the top PPR back. He was the #9 RB last year in PPR leagues, behind guys like Slaton, Thomas Jones, MJD and even LT.

What kind of rules does your league have?All my PPR leagues, he was 4th/5th ahead of those guys (not by much, but ahead)Consistently in my PPR leagues, Deangelo/Forte/Turner were the guys ahead of him.

 

[gianmarco]

There's another big point that I'm surprised no one has mentioned yet.

I want my fantasy teams to be filled with elite talents. Now, I know you said "let's pretend I don't know you", but you'd have to say that to just about every football analyst, player, fan, scout, etc. It's not a controversial subject that the kid can just flat out play and has unreal talent. As good as Chester has been and as good as that line has been, I've yet to hear a single person that has watched Peterson run say "ehh, nothing special". Even if there is someone like that, it's the minority. So, that has to count for something.

But, back to the big point, it's the ceiling that AP possesses. If there is a RB that is going to run for 2000 yds and/or 20 TDs, it's Peterson. If there's a RB that can run for 250 yds and 4 TDs in a game, it's Peterson. He's the guy of all RBs in the league most likely to do it and most capable to do it. He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you. In fact, despite running for 1760 rushing yds, he "only" had 10 rushing TDs, which I think is probably the lowest he'll end up with for his career.

I want a guy that can put up a 2006 LT-like year. I want a guy that is capable of shattering records. In his short 2 yr career, AP has the single game rushing record, has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30, has rushed for over 200 yds twice, and has a career 5.2 ypc on over 600 carries. That, and now Chester is going to be 30 and his involvement will only go down while Peterson gets to continue to run behind an elite line.

So, while I understand the point of what you're doing in questioning conventional thinking, there are times that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, it's simply a duck. AP is the #1 fantasy player with the ONLY exception being Calvin or Fitz in a 1 ppr league and that's just a matter of preference.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

In PPR, I would not even have Peterson top 5 overall. Either he can't catch or they don't throw it to him or both, either way, I don't care. He would need 20 TDs to be the top PPR back. He was the #9 RB last year in PPR leagues, behind guys like Slaton, Thomas Jones, MJD and even LT.

What kind of rules does your league have?All my PPR leagues, he was 4th/5th ahead of those guys (not by much, but ahead)Consistently in my PPR leagues, Deangelo/Forte/Turner were the guys ahead of him.

Standard PPR scoring like in leagues like WCOFF / FFPC of 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving and 6 points for TDs.1. D Will 3082. Forte 307.53. MJD 284.94. Turner 282.15. Thomas Jones 277.96. LT 277.67. Slaton 275.98. Westy 272.3 (missed 2 games, too)9. Peterson 270.1If you are using points per game, Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush bumped him down to the 11th best scoring RB in PPR leagues.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30

This is really a pretty remarkable accomplishment. In 2007 alone, he had ten 100 yard rushing games in 16 regular season games. To put that in perspective, LT has never done that in his entire career (and in fact, LT has only had more than six 100 yard rushing games once in his entire career).He's shown that he can have the huge 200, or even 300 yard rushing games in 2007. In 2008 he showed that he can be consistent with those ten 100 yard rushing games (and 75+ yards rushing in 15 out of 16 games). Now if he puts the two together....wow.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you.

He's a guy that DID single-handedly lose MANY weeks for teams, too, like he did in 2008. ADP in 2008:

week 3: 7.7 points (77 yards, no catches, no TDs)

week 5: 5.1 points (32 yards, 1 catch 9 yards, no TDs) - vs the Saints on Monday night when the STARS come out.

week 6: 12.1 points (111 yards, 1 catch, 0 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 11: 9.5 points (85 rushing yards, 1 catch 0 yards, no TDs)

week 14: 12.7 points (102 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 16: 11.2 points (76 rushing yards, 2 catches, 16 yards, no TDs) - against the Falcons - was ranked a top 3 RB that week, lost many teams a championship that week.

He averaged 9.72 points over his worst 6 games and his big games just were not that big. He is a very nice two-down running back with a lot of talent. Peterson is a yardage machine, but if he does not score a TD that week, his points scored is very pedestrian, because he does not fill the stat line anywhere else.

Many fantasy players' #1 overall dynasty player is not even a three down back. No thanks, you guys can have Mr. Peterson ALL DAY long, and continue to get mediocre performance from him, while Chester Taylor comes in on 3rd downs. I would gladly take MJD, Chris Johnson, Forte and maybe S Jax over him in PPR leagues, and some WRs, too.

 

[Gandalf]

Do want to be clear here... not suggesting Peterson's a bum or anything.Just that he shouldn't be the consensus #1 dynasty player. Top ten - yes.

I don't disagree with this, but who would you place above Peterson? How would your top ten list look as of right now?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

There's another big point that I'm surprised no one has mentioned yet. I want my fantasy teams to be filled with elite talents. Now, I know you said "let's pretend I don't know you", but you'd have to say that to just about every football analyst, player, fan, scout, etc. It's not a controversial subject that the kid can just flat out play and has unreal talent. As good as Chester has been and as good as that line has been, I've yet to hear a single person that has watched Peterson run say "ehh, nothing special". Even if there is someone like that, it's the minority. So, that has to count for something.But, back to the big point, it's the ceiling that AP possesses. If there is a RB that is going to run for 2000 yds and/or 20 TDs, it's Peterson. If there's a RB that can run for 250 yds and 4 TDs in a game, it's Peterson. He's the guy of all RBs in the league most likely to do it and most capable to do it. He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you. In fact, despite running for 1760 rushing yds, he "only" had 10 rushing TDs, which I think is probably the lowest he'll end up with for his career. I want a guy that can put up a 2006 LT-like year. I want a guy that is capable of shattering records. In his short 2 yr career, AP has the single game rushing record, has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30, has rushed for over 200 yds twice, and has a career 5.2 ypc on over 600 carries. That, and now Chester is going to be 30 and his involvement will only go down while Peterson gets to continue to run behind an elite line. So, while I understand the point of what you're doing in questioning conventional thinking, there are times that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, it's simply a duck. AP is the #1 fantasy player with the ONLY exception being Calvin or Fitz in a 1 ppr league and that's just a matter of preference.

 

[gianmarco]

He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you.

He's a guy that DID single-handedly lose MANY weeks for teams, too, like he did in 2008. ADP in 2008:

week 3: 7.7 points (77 yards, no catches, no TDs)

week 5: 5.1 points (32 yards, 1 catch 9 yards, no TDs) - vs the Saints on Monday night when the STARS come out.

week 6: 12.1 points (111 yards, 1 catch, 0 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 11: 9.5 points (85 rushing yards, 1 catch 0 yards, no TDs)

week 14: 12.7 points (102 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 16: 11.2 points (76 rushing yards, 2 catches, 16 yards, no TDs) - against the Falcons - was ranked a top 3 RB that week, lost many teams a championship that week.

He averaged 9.72 points over his worst 6 games and his big games just were not that big. He is a very nice two-down running back with a lot of talent. Peterson is a yardage machine, but if he does not score a TD that week, his points scored is very pedestrian, because he does not fill the stat line anywhere else.

Many fantasy players' #1 overall dynasty player is not even a three down back. No thanks, you guys can have Mr. Peterson ALL DAY long, and continue to get mediocre performance from him, while Chester Taylor comes in on 3rd downs. I would gladly take MJD, Chris Johnson, Forte and maybe S Jax over him in PPR leagues, and some WRs, too.

Question for you. How long do you think Chester is going to last for now that he will be 30? If/when he's done and if/when Childress either gets a clue or gets fired, AP will be getting those 3rd down carries as well. Mark that down.

 

[gianmarco]

has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30

This is really a pretty remarkable accomplishment. In 2007 alone, he had ten 100 yard rushing games in 16 regular season games. To put that in perspective, LT has never done that in his entire career (and in fact, LT has only had more than six 100 yard rushing games once in his entire career).He's shown that he can have the huge 200, or even 300 yard rushing games in 2007. In 2008 he showed that he can be consistent with those ten 100 yard rushing games (and 75+ yards rushing in 15 out of 16 games). Now if he puts the two together....wow.

Right, the only thing lacking is the receptions (which I think will go up as Chester ages) and the TDs, which were abnormally low in 2008 for the # of yards he ran for. The other point I failed to mention in my 1st post is his floor compared to other RB's. Not only does he give you a great shot at being #1 overall but, barring losing a leg, is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the top 10.ETA--Also, Rob, I'd be interested what the #'s are for Faulk and LT during their 1st 2 years. Think you can look those up and compare em. I don't really know, tbh.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30

This is really a pretty remarkable accomplishment. In 2007 alone, he had ten 100 yard rushing games in 16 regular season games. To put that in perspective, LT has never done that in his entire career (and in fact, LT has only had more than six 100 yard rushing games once in his entire career).He's shown that he can have the huge 200, or even 300 yard rushing games in 2007. In 2008 he showed that he can be consistent with those ten 100 yard rushing games (and 75+ yards rushing in 15 out of 16 games). Now if he puts the two together....wow.

Right, the only thing lacking is the receptions (which I think will go up as Chester ages) and the TDs, which were abnormally low in 2008 for the # of yards he ran for. The other point I failed to mention in my 1st post is his floor compared to other RB's. Not only does he give you a great shot at being #1 overall but, barring losing a leg, is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the top 10.ETA--Also, Rob, I'd be interested what the #'s are for Faulk and LT during their 1st 2 years. Think you can look those up and compare em. I don't really know, tbh.

You make an excellent point regarding ADP's floor. Again, for PPR leagues, I do not think he has any chance at the #1 RB without scoring 20 TDs, due to his lack of receptions. I see no reason why receptions will increase, as Taylor is simply better in that role than ADP is. Peterson's TDs were low considering how many yards and carries he had, so that should increase relative to his carries and yards. However, what is to say that Peterson's carries and yards do not decrease in 2009? They do play solid rush defense teams like Chicago twice, and Pittsburgh and Baltimore in 2009, so it is not a cakewalk schedule. That Dukes guy from NFL Network interviewed ADP at the Pro Bowl and asked him about him getting more action on 3rd downs. Peterson was clearly uncomfortable about the question, and stated that he has worked on blocking and receiving, but that Taylor has that role in the offense on 3rd downs. Peterson is not expecting an increase in that role, so why should we? Maybe in 2-3 years Peterson will be the every-down back, but not in 2009 and maybe/maybe not in 2010.

 

[comfortably numb]

In PPR, I would not even have Peterson top 5 overall. Either he can't catch or they don't throw it to him or both, either way, I don't care. He would need 20 TDs to be the top PPR back. He was the #9 RB last year in PPR leagues, behind guys like Slaton, Thomas Jones, MJD and even LT.

What kind of rules does your league have?All my PPR leagues, he was 4th/5th ahead of those guys (not by much, but ahead)Consistently in my PPR leagues, Deangelo/Forte/Turner were the guys ahead of him.

Standard PPR scoring like in leagues like WCOFF / FFPC of 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving and 6 points for TDs.1. D Will 3082. Forte 307.53. MJD 284.94. Turner 282.15. Thomas Jones 277.96. LT 277.67. Slaton 275.98. Westy 272.3 (missed 2 games, too)9. Peterson 270.1If you are using points per game, Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush bumped him down to the 11th best scoring RB in PPR leagues.

Ah, duh, 1PPR. Understand now.My argument for taking #1 would be he provides the best shot at being the #1 point scorer for his position.More impressively, his "floor" is still higher than most 1st RD backs "ceiling" is.1 question when you ask "why is he selected over players like Sjax/MJD who have much more difficult situations."What exactly is much more difficult for them?IMO, AP has a very tough situation.Yes, his line is good, but he faces every team every week, knowing that he is the only valid weapon that needs to be shut down.Gus/Tavaris?Berrian? Yea, he had some flashes but 48 rec?SRice?Shaincoe?

 

[Leroy's Aces]

He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you.

He's a guy that DID single-handedly lose MANY weeks for teams, too, like he did in 2008. ADP in 2008:

week 3: 7.7 points (77 yards, no catches, no TDs)

week 5: 5.1 points (32 yards, 1 catch 9 yards, no TDs) - vs the Saints on Monday night when the STARS come out.

week 6: 12.1 points (111 yards, 1 catch, 0 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 11: 9.5 points (85 rushing yards, 1 catch 0 yards, no TDs)

week 14: 12.7 points (102 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 16: 11.2 points (76 rushing yards, 2 catches, 16 yards, no TDs) - against the Falcons - was ranked a top 3 RB that week, lost many teams a championship that week.

He averaged 9.72 points over his worst 6 games and his big games just were not that big. He is a very nice two-down running back with a lot of talent. Peterson is a yardage machine, but if he does not score a TD that week, his points scored is very pedestrian, because he does not fill the stat line anywhere else.

Many fantasy players' #1 overall dynasty player is not even a three down back. No thanks, you guys can have Mr. Peterson ALL DAY long, and continue to get mediocre performance from him, while Chester Taylor comes in on 3rd downs. I would gladly take MJD, Chris Johnson, Forte and maybe S Jax over him in PPR leagues, and some WRs, too.

Question for you. How long do you think Chester is going to last for now that he will be 30? If/when he's done and if/when Childress either gets a clue or gets fired, AP will be getting those 3rd down carries as well. Mark that down.

You may be right, but it maybe 2011 by then. MJD will have caught another 130 passes between now and then.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Brad Childress and Tarvaris Jackson

Chester Taylor is coached by Vince Lombardi and has the advantage of playing with Joe Montana?Fail.

 

[TaxMan]

There's another big point that I'm surprised no one has mentioned yet. I want my fantasy teams to be filled with elite talents. Now, I know you said "let's pretend I don't know you", but you'd have to say that to just about every football analyst, player, fan, scout, etc. It's not a controversial subject that the kid can just flat out play and has unreal talent. As good as Chester has been and as good as that line has been, I've yet to hear a single person that has watched Peterson run say "ehh, nothing special". Even if there is someone like that, it's the minority. So, that has to count for something.But, back to the big point, it's the ceiling that AP possesses. If there is a RB that is going to run for 2000 yds and/or 20 TDs, it's Peterson. If there's a RB that can run for 250 yds and 4 TDs in a game, it's Peterson. He's the guy of all RBs in the league most likely to do it and most capable to do it. He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you. In fact, despite running for 1760 rushing yds, he "only" had 10 rushing TDs, which I think is probably the lowest he'll end up with for his career. I want a guy that can put up a 2006 LT-like year. I want a guy that is capable of shattering records. In his short 2 yr career, AP has the single game rushing record, has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30, has rushed for over 200 yds twice, and has a career 5.2 ypc on over 600 carries. That, and now Chester is going to be 30 and his involvement will only go down while Peterson gets to continue to run behind an elite line. So, while I understand the point of what you're doing in questioning conventional thinking, there are times that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, it's simply a duck. AP is the #1 fantasy player with the ONLY exception being Calvin or Fitz in a 1 ppr league and that's just a matter of preference.

very This exactly is WHY Peterson should be the #1 player in any drafts, PPR or NON-PPR.

 

[Blackjacks]

The college YPC is easy, he was one of the very rare workhorse RBs in college, and YPC tends to come down with more carries. Also, he played on a team with QB problems throughout his entire college career and never had much of a passing threat. This wasn't Reggie Bush running against 5 and 6 man fronts because they needed a bunch of people back to cover their multiple WRs drafted in the top 10 overall being thrown to by their QB drafted in the top 10 overall. Oklahoma was Adrian Peterson, and defenses knew that.

I'm not sure how football outsider's DVOA formula works, but if it came to the conclusion that Adrian Peterson touches the ball more in good running situations then it is an absurdly screwed up formula. I've watched most Viking games the last two years and Taylor commonly ran draws on 3rd and long and Peterson ran in most short yardage situations (bad for your YPC). (EDIT: I just read how this formula works and it is unclear how it applies to this situation, especially with regards to YPC since it seems to give a bonus for being closer to the endzone).

In the games in which Taylor received 15+ touches the last two years, he eclipsed 4ypc in only 1 out of 3 tries. Peterson did it in 19 out of 24 tries.

I know he was on Jason White's team when he (White) won the Heisman. I'd say that was a pretty good passing attack that year and I believe he played with White his (ADP) first two years.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

In the games in which Taylor received 15+ touches the last two years, he eclipsed 4ypc in only 1 out of 3 tries. Peterson did it in 19 out of 24 tries.

This was a great post. No comment from wdcrob?Why do people fail to take into account defensive focus? Does anybody really think the defense is putting 8-9 guys in the box versus Chester Taylor? Me either.AP faces 8-9 guys in the box on every play, but he still averages > 5 yds per carry. That's ridiculous.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

In the games in which Taylor received 15+ touches the last two years, he eclipsed 4ypc in only 1 out of 3 tries. Peterson did it in 19 out of 24 tries.

This was a great post. No comment from wdcrob?Why do people fail to take into account defensive focus? Does anybody really think the defense is putting 8-9 guys in the box versus Chester Taylor? Me either.AP faces 8-9 guys in the box on every play, but he still averages > 5 yds per carry. That's ridiculous.

And he will face 8-9 in the box in 2009 again, too. And he probably will in 2010. And ADP doesn't face 8-9 in the box on every play, it is only on 1st and 2nd downs, he leaves the field on 3rd downs.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This was a great post. No comment from wdcrob?

DVOA tries to account for all that. It's not saying who had the more difficult touches - it just tries to level the playing field so you can measure RBs against each other after accounting for the types of touches they had.I still believe that there are several more talented WRs and RBs than ADP, and that he benefits from his situation - in the same way that Chester Taylor isn't a top 25 back, but he looked like it in 2006 playing for MN.But, after reading all the (excellent) comments, I think I probably made the wrong argument in my initial post and in his current situation, he could justify his #1 ranking. It's definitely a flaw in my thinking that I don't take opportunity into account enough.

 

[VICK-tory]

DVOA Schmee Vee Oh A

What a joke, AP is an Animal.

Besides the Vike off. line isn't that good and his qb(s) sucks.

 

[Doug Drinen]

has 16 100 yd rushing games out of 30

This is really a pretty remarkable accomplishment. In 2007 alone, he had ten 100 yard rushing games in 16 regular season games. To put that in perspective, LT has never done that in his entire career (and in fact, LT has only had more than six 100 yard rushing games once in his entire career).

NOTE: no opinion about Peterson as dynasty #1 is either expressed or implied in this post. It's just trivia.All RBs ranked by percentage of games in which they rushed for 100 yards, first two seasons of their career:

+---------------------+------+-------------------+| player			  | g	| 100 yard game pct |+---------------------+------+-------------------+| Eric Dickerson	  | 32   | 65.6			  || Clinton Portis	  | 29   | 62.1			  || Edgerrin James	  | 32   | 59.4			  || Earl Campbell	   | 31   | 58.1			  || Adrian Peterson	 | 30   | 53.3			  || George Rogers	   | 22   | 50.0			  || Don Woods		   | 17   | 47.1			  || Ottis Anderson	  | 32   | 46.9			  || Jim Brown		   | 24   | 45.8			  || Billy Sims		  | 30   | 40.0			  || Eddie George		| 32   | 37.5			  || Willis McGahee	  | 32   | 37.5			  || Fred Taylor		 | 25   | 36.0			  || Barry Sanders	   | 31   | 35.5			  || Curt Warner		 | 17   | 35.3			  || Franco Harris	   | 26   | 34.6			  || Curtis Martin	   | 32   | 34.4			  || Emmitt Smith		| 32   | 34.4			  || Jerome Bettis	   | 32   | 34.4			  || LaDainian Tomlinson | 32   | 34.4			  |+---------------------+------+-------------------+

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

All RBs ranked by percentage of games in which they rushed for 100 yards, first two seasons of their career.

That's the kind of thing I was looking for Gian and Doug. Pretty good list to be on.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

I think a lot of people posting here are confusing being an elite and talented running back with being an elite and high scoring fantasy player, because Peterson is an elite back, but has never been an elite fantasy scorer and he will continue not to be.

FACT - Elite Running Back Facts

1. Peterson is an elite talent.

2. Peterson has a great YPC.

3. Peterson runs for 100 yards a game quite frequently.

FACT (PPR Scoring ONLY) - Peterson is Not The #1 RB Facts

1. Peterson was outscored by an oft-injured LaDanian Tomlinson in 2008.

2. Peterson was outscored by Westbrook despite Westbrook missing 2 games.

3. Peterson was outscored by Maurice Jones-Drew and MJD had 167 LESS CARRIES!

4. Peterson was outscored by Steven Jackson by 2 points per game in PPR scoring.

5. Peterson was outscored by Forte, D Will, Turner and Slaton, too, finishing 9th in PPR scoring. Allow me to repeat, your #1 fantasy RB was outscored by EIGHT other running backs in 2008, and is likely to have a very similar situation in 2009.

6. On a points per game basis, Peterson was barely an RB1 in PPR scoring, finishing 11th for 2008.

Maybe one week Peterson will rush for 180 and 3 TDs this next year for 36 fantasy points. The next game he will probably have 75 yards, no catches and no TDs for 7.5 points. All the while guys like Forte, Steven Jackson and MJD are churning out 85 yards, 4 catches for 40 yards and a TD (almost) every week. And by the end of the season, Peterson comes in 9th again and you "Peterson consensus #1" guys wonder what happened. He is an elite football player and talent, but he is just a two down back, he is not a do-it-all super back like Steven Jackson, Forte or MJD. The team has given zero indication he will be a 3 down back in 2009. yet people want to just give him Chester Taylor's job, because it's Peterson. Don't forget to give Turner some more catches, too, and let Jerious Norwood know he is no longer needed.

 

[Christo]

The college YPC is easy, he was one of the very rare workhorse RBs in college, and YPC tends to come down with more carries. Also, he played on a team with QB problems throughout his entire college career and never had much of a passing threat. This wasn't Reggie Bush running against 5 and 6 man fronts because they needed a bunch of people back to cover their multiple WRs drafted in the top 10 overall being thrown to by their QB drafted in the top 10 overall. Oklahoma was Adrian Peterson, and defenses knew that.

I'm not sure how football outsider's DVOA formula works, but if it came to the conclusion that Adrian Peterson touches the ball more in good running situations then it is an absurdly screwed up formula. I've watched most Viking games the last two years and Taylor commonly ran draws on 3rd and long and Peterson ran in most short yardage situations (bad for your YPC). (EDIT: I just read how this formula works and it is unclear how it applies to this situation, especially with regards to YPC since it seems to give a bonus for being closer to the endzone).

In the games in which Taylor received 15+ touches the last two years, he eclipsed 4ypc in only 1 out of 3 tries. Peterson did it in 19 out of 24 tries.

I know he was on Jason White's team when he (White) won the Heisman. I'd say that was a pretty good passing attack that year and I believe he played with White his (ADP) first two years.

One year--2004.

 

[awesomeness]

Adrian Peterson is the consensus #1 dynasty player - you can't find a ranking that doesn't have him at the top of the list. And while I agree that he's a very good back - I also think he's overrated at that lofty ranking. Here's why:His NCAA career yards/carry was 5.43 - below the average for the 29 RBs drafted in the first round from 1998-2008 (5.75). In fact it ranks 19th.And in his first two years in the NFL he has only slightly outperformed Chester Taylor: 5.16 y/c, 9.83 y/r and a TD/28 touches for ADP4.83 y/c, 9.19 y/r and a TD/26 touches for TaylorChecking Football Outsiders' DVOA ranking (which adjusts for down, distance and quality of defense for every rush by each player), we find that ADP's DVOA for 2007-2008 averaged 8.2% (simple average, not weighted) - solid, but not elite. While Taylor's was a respectable 3.4%. Which suggests that the raw stats above aren't a function of Taylor receiving higher-value touches.I'd probably shrug off any of these measures in isolation, but collectively they suggest that Peterson is a pretty standard 1st round NFL RB who's playing behind a fantastic offensive line.So... I'm looking for an explanation of what he's done that warrants his lofty ranking. Why should he be taken before players like Steven Jackson and MJD who have put up comparable numbers in much more difficult situations? Or the top tier WRs like Fitz, AJ and Calvin?And while this is obviously challenging the conventional wisdom, it isn't meant to be pot-stirring. If you disagree I want to know why. What evidence do you have to support your position?

DVOA really has little to no effect, specifically for players who NFL coaches perceive as being very talented. Even though Taylor's DVOA is higher, it is highly unlikely that any NFL coach thinks to himself that maybe he should start giving Chester Taylor the majority of the carries over ADP. The exact thing happened this past year. In 2007 Reggie Bush had the worst DVOA in the league, but his NFL coach perceives him as being a talented player and subsequently gave him opportunities to suceed. Judging by NCAA average yards per rush is as irrelevant of a statistic as there is to determine NFL success. Nothing really else to say about this. Though i agree with you ADP is probably overrated overall, i really don't have any problem with him being the consensus #1 pick in dynasty leagues as he's young, in a great situation, is very talented, and is at a position of scarcity that often gives the most points in FF.

 

[encaitar]

I think a lot of people posting here are confusing being an elite and talented running back with being an elite and high scoring fantasy player, because Peterson is an elite back, but has never been an elite fantasy scorer and he will continue not to be.

FACT - Elite Running Back Facts

1. Peterson is an elite talent.

2. Peterson has a great YPC.

3. Peterson runs for 100 yards a game quite frequently.

FACT (PPR Scoring ONLY) - Peterson is Not The #1 RB Facts

1. Peterson was outscored by an oft-injured LaDanian Tomlinson in 2008.

2. Peterson was outscored by Westbrook despite Westbrook missing 2 games.

3. Peterson was outscored by Maurice Jones-Drew and MJD had 167 LESS CARRIES!

4. Peterson was outscored by Steven Jackson by 2 points per game in PPR scoring.

5. Peterson was outscored by Forte, D Will, Turner and Slaton, too, finishing 9th in PPR scoring. Allow me to repeat, your #1 fantasy RB was outscored by EIGHT other running backs in 2008, and is likely to have a very similar situation in 2009.

6. On a points per game basis, Peterson was barely an RB1 in PPR scoring, finishing 11th for 2008.

Maybe one week Peterson will rush for 180 and 3 TDs this next year for 36 fantasy points. The next game he will probably have 75 yards, no catches and no TDs for 7.5 points. All the while guys like Forte, Steven Jackson and MJD are churning out 85 yards, 4 catches for 40 yards and a TD (almost) every week. And by the end of the season, Peterson comes in 9th again and you "Peterson consensus #1" guys wonder what happened. He is an elite football player and talent, but he is just a two down back, he is not a do-it-all super back like Steven Jackson, Forte or MJD. The team has given zero indication he will be a 3 down back in 2009. yet people want to just give him Chester Taylor's job, because it's Peterson. Don't forget to give Turner some more catches, too, and let Jerious Norwood know he is no longer needed.

Did you miss this year? Peterson was not the back having huge weeks to boost his stats. He was easily the most consistent top back this year. He had only two games this year where he scored less than 9 points, yet because of bad timing(coaching) and luck he only had 10 TDs. He still finished the season in the top 10 in any PPR league, despite never being used in the passing game. Next year is Chester Taylor's last in the current contract and I see AP being used more in the passing game to help acclimate him to that role, as Taylor isn't likely to resign. It'd be very foolish to not take him No. 1 in any non-PPR.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I think a lot of people posting here are confusing being an elite and talented running back with being an elite and high scoring fantasy player, because Peterson is an elite back, but has never been an elite fantasy scorer and he will continue not to be.

FACT - Elite Running Back Facts

1. Peterson is an elite talent.

2. Peterson has a great YPC.

3. Peterson runs for 100 yards a game quite frequently.

FACT (PPR Scoring ONLY) - Peterson is Not The #1 RB Facts

1. Peterson was outscored by an oft-injured LaDanian Tomlinson in 2008.

2. Peterson was outscored by Westbrook despite Westbrook missing 2 games.

3. Peterson was outscored by Maurice Jones-Drew and MJD had 167 LESS CARRIES!

4. Peterson was outscored by Steven Jackson by 2 points per game in PPR scoring.

5. Peterson was outscored by Forte, D Will, Turner and Slaton, too, finishing 9th in PPR scoring. Allow me to repeat, your #1 fantasy RB was outscored by EIGHT other running backs in 2008, and is likely to have a very similar situation in 2009.

6. On a points per game basis, Peterson was barely an RB1 in PPR scoring, finishing 11th for 2008.

Maybe one week Peterson will rush for 180 and 3 TDs this next year for 36 fantasy points. The next game he will probably have 75 yards, no catches and no TDs for 7.5 points. All the while guys like Forte, Steven Jackson and MJD are churning out 85 yards, 4 catches for 40 yards and a TD (almost) every week. And by the end of the season, Peterson comes in 9th again and you "Peterson consensus #1" guys wonder what happened. He is an elite football player and talent, but he is just a two down back, he is not a do-it-all super back like Steven Jackson, Forte or MJD. The team has given zero indication he will be a 3 down back in 2009. yet people want to just give him Chester Taylor's job, because it's Peterson. Don't forget to give Turner some more catches, too, and let Jerious Norwood know he is no longer needed.

You make some fair points but I would still draft AD in the top 3 in PPR scoring and #1 overall in standard. In the WCOFF scoring you listed, he only finished 14 points out of the top 3 last season. That shortfall averages out to about 1 point per game and we know he can put up better numbers. Also, except for LT and Westy, none of the other RB's that finished ahead of him were drafted in the first round. So he's been a solid pick for two years in a row and he's the most talented, young RB in the league. Every year at least half of the first round picks bust. Last season it was more than half. It will be the same again this year. Some overhyped RB like Forte or Slaton will break your heart and the next flavor of the season will emerge. AD might bust too, but I'll roll the dice with the most talented RB in the league.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Leroy's Aces gets it.

That said, I wish he'd shutup

 

[Ned]

He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you.

He's a guy that DID single-handedly lose MANY weeks for teams, too, like he did in 2008. ADP in 2008:

week 3: 7.7 points (77 yards, no catches, no TDs)

week 5: 5.1 points (32 yards, 1 catch 9 yards, no TDs) - vs the Saints on Monday night when the STARS come out.

week 6: 12.1 points (111 yards, 1 catch, 0 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 11: 9.5 points (85 rushing yards, 1 catch 0 yards, no TDs)

week 14: 12.7 points (102 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 16: 11.2 points (76 rushing yards, 2 catches, 16 yards, no TDs) - against the Falcons - was ranked a top 3 RB that week, lost many teams a championship that week.

He averaged 9.72 points over his worst 6 games and his big games just were not that big. He is a very nice two-down running back with a lot of talent. Peterson is a yardage machine, but if he does not score a TD that week, his points scored is very pedestrian, because he does not fill the stat line anywhere else.

Many fantasy players' #1 overall dynasty player is not even a three down back. No thanks, you guys can have Mr. Peterson ALL DAY long, and continue to get mediocre performance from him, while Chester Taylor comes in on 3rd downs. I would gladly take MJD, Chris Johnson, Forte and maybe S Jax over him in PPR leagues, and some WRs, too.

Yet AP's standard deviation (8.89) is right on par with MJD (8.79) and CJ (9.24). Forte was a monster with the best (lowest) standard deviation for the top 30 RBs (5.63). And your argument that he's not even a 3 down back... Are MJD or CJ a 3 down back?

So...are you taking Forte 1.01 in a startup?

 

[thatguy]

This was a great post. No comment from wdcrob?

DVOA tries to account for all that. It's not saying who had the more difficult touches - it just tries to level the playing field so you can measure RBs against each other after accounting for the types of touches they had.I still believe that there are several more talented WRs and RBs than ADP, and that he benefits from his situation - in the same way that Chester Taylor isn't a top 25 back, but he looked like it in 2006 playing for MN.But, after reading all the (excellent) comments, I think I probably made the wrong argument in my initial post and in his current situation, he could justify his #1 ranking. It's definitely a flaw in my thinking that I don't take opportunity into account enough.

The problem though, is that while AP took very few looks/touches away from Chester in his B&B situations, neither did Chester take these looks away from AP in his B&B situations. So how can any system accurately compare the two? The answer it quite simply, they can't be compared.ETA: B&B = Bread N Butter

 

[Getinthemix]

I think for a long term Dynasty situation, Chester Taylor really needs to be discounted. His contract runs out after this coming season and he turns 30 this coming season as well.

His ceiling may not be as high short term, due to his lack of receptions, but long term, no matter the scoring system, there is no other RB I would rather have.

To cite Chester Taylor for a dynasty situation is questionable to me, considering that he is gone after this year.

 

[GSWarriors]

Leroy's Aces gets it.

That said, I wish he'd shutup

I hope he doesn't shutup, coz I seriously would like to see ADP fall to me at #8 to #11 pick in any league next year, and watch him DESTROY and SEPARATE himself from the pack with a monster year.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Id rather have Calvin Johnson in PPR

I'd take Fitzy over ADP also.

Of course that doesn't stop you from trying to get ADP from me in HA3

 

[Leroy's Aces]

He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you.

He's a guy that DID single-handedly lose MANY weeks for teams, too, like he did in 2008. ADP in 2008:

week 3: 7.7 points (77 yards, no catches, no TDs)

week 5: 5.1 points (32 yards, 1 catch 9 yards, no TDs) - vs the Saints on Monday night when the STARS come out.

week 6: 12.1 points (111 yards, 1 catch, 0 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 11: 9.5 points (85 rushing yards, 1 catch 0 yards, no TDs)

week 14: 12.7 points (102 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 16: 11.2 points (76 rushing yards, 2 catches, 16 yards, no TDs) - against the Falcons - was ranked a top 3 RB that week, lost many teams a championship that week.

He averaged 9.72 points over his worst 6 games and his big games just were not that big. He is a very nice two-down running back with a lot of talent. Peterson is a yardage machine, but if he does not score a TD that week, his points scored is very pedestrian, because he does not fill the stat line anywhere else.

Many fantasy players' #1 overall dynasty player is not even a three down back. No thanks, you guys can have Mr. Peterson ALL DAY long, and continue to get mediocre performance from him, while Chester Taylor comes in on 3rd downs. I would gladly take MJD, Chris Johnson, Forte and maybe S Jax over him in PPR leagues, and some WRs, too.

Yet AP's standard deviation (8.89) is right on par with MJD (8.79) and CJ (9.24). Forte was a monster with the best (lowest) standard deviation for the top 30 RBs (5.63). And your argument that he's not even a 3 down back... Are MJD or CJ a 3 down back?

So...are you taking Forte 1.01 in a startup?

MJD will be a three down back this year if Fred Taylor is not re-signed, which is likely. CJ is a three down back, but Lendale comes in as part of a rotation, CJ is not yet a full-time back. Starting next year if and when Lendale leaves in free agency, he will be the full-time back. Speaking of CJ, Peterson only outscored him by 19 points on 91 more touches. And unlike Peterson, they both can catch. Let's look at Peterson's fantasy points per touch in 2008 (using PPR scoring):

He had 385 touches in 2008 and produced 270.10 fantasy points. That is .70 fantasy points per touch.

Do you feel he will have MORE than 385 touches in 2009 and beyond, because I do not. Will he average more than 4.82 a carry? Maybe. The only other ways to increase his points scored is to increase his points per touch, which means more TDs or more catches. It is likely he will have a handful more TDs, maybe 3-5 more. Who knows, maybe he will have fewer TDs or less rushing yards in 2009. That O-line is not getting any younger. If Taylor leaves, will Peterson all of a sudden become a 50 catch back? Again, I say the answer is no, he would not.

By comparison, look at MJD in 2008:

284.90 points on 259 touches = 1.1 fantasy points per touch (PPR)

MJD had only 197 carries, so that could increase. He has 12 TDs on those carries, that could increase. Jax had tons of O-line issues, so that will improve and his YPC should improve. For 2009, their schedule gets crazy-easy, with the AFC East and NFC West on the docket and Cleveland and KC outside the division.

The number 1 fantasy running back in PPR usually scores more than the 308 DeAngelo put up in 2008. It was a down year for PPR RBs. Why? Because the pass-catching backs all got hurt at one point or another leaving only non-pass catchers like DeAngelo, Turner and Peterson. In 2007, Westy had 372 points and LT was just behind with 368. In 2006, LT scored 483, while S Jax scored 419, and LJ scored 375. Even taking out LT's 2006 monster season, the #1 PPR running back should score about 375 points give or take 20 points. How does Peterson get to 375 points?:

How about if, in 2009, Peterson has:

365 rushes 1750 yards and 20 TDs and 20 catches for 175 yards, that is a great season right? That is 332 fantasy points, a great season, but probably not #1 and that IS WITH 20 TDS!

More likely for ADP:

345 rushes 1600 yards 14 TDs and 20 catches for 175 yards = 281.5 fantasy points or .77 points per touch.

Compare that to a very reasonable scenario for this season for RBs like MJD or Forte or Steven Jackson or Gore or Chris Johnson:

300 carries 1300 yards 14 TDs 60 catches for 500 yards and 2 Receiving TDs = 336 fantasy points or .93 points per touch One of those five backs will probably score well beyond that and be the #1 RB this next year.

For every 9.11 yard catch MJD makes, Peterson has to run the ball 4 times for 19.28 yards.(using their averages from 2008) That is tough to make up those points.

In Dynasty PPR, I would take Forte, MJD, Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson over Peterson at RB and Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Fitz would all be very close to Peterson for me.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Leroy's Aces gets it.That said, I wish he'd shutup

No worries, Jeff, no one here will change their mind. And those that would are probably not paying attention this time of year.

 

[bostonfred]

He's a guy that can EASILY single handedly win a week for you.

He's a guy that DID single-handedly lose MANY weeks for teams, too, like he did in 2008. ADP in 2008:

week 3: 7.7 points (77 yards, no catches, no TDs)

week 5: 5.1 points (32 yards, 1 catch 9 yards, no TDs) - vs the Saints on Monday night when the STARS come out.

week 6: 12.1 points (111 yards, 1 catch, 0 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 11: 9.5 points (85 rushing yards, 1 catch 0 yards, no TDs)

week 14: 12.7 points (102 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, no TDs) - against the Lions - was ranked as a consensus #1 RB that week

week 16: 11.2 points (76 rushing yards, 2 catches, 16 yards, no TDs) - against the Falcons - was ranked a top 3 RB that week, lost many teams a championship that week.

He averaged 9.72 points over his worst 6 games and his big games just were not that big. He is a very nice two-down running back with a lot of talent. Peterson is a yardage machine, but if he does not score a TD that week, his points scored is very pedestrian, because he does not fill the stat line anywhere else.

12 points is now "single handedly losing the week" for you? On a down week? That's silly.