gcmmidwest
Footballguy
never thought i'd be saying this..,AP does not seem like a must start anymore.Teams(greenbay) will be stacking the box & I have
no confidence with Freeman @ Qb
no confidence with Freeman @ Qb
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Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gcmmidwest
- Start date
I know it should never be said because they all count, but "take away his few long runs" this year and he's looked terrible. In know that his line sucks, but he just doesn't seem to have the burst like before. He's hitting the holes like a 245 lb fullback. As my RB1, I've watched the bulk of his carries and something is not the same.
Gvindy
Footballguy
gcmmidwest
Footballguy
well then call me crazy because Ivory looked a heck of a lot better to me ...,there's no way he runs thru the packers
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I don't know whose worse, Schiano for running Freeman out of town in 2 weeks, or Frazier for bringing him into town and starting him in just 2 weeks.
Actually I'll say Frazier because, not only that, he has Freeman throw it 53 times against a horrible team and defense and largely keep ADP inactive most of the game, like some kind of bauble on a tree.
Actually I'll say Frazier because, not only that, he has Freeman throw it 53 times against a horrible team and defense and largely keep ADP inactive most of the game, like some kind of bauble on a tree.
The blame is almost entirely on Musgrave and Frazier. AP is AP. If he runs the ball 10 times like these past 2 weeks, odds are he wont get his points and the vikes will lose. If they give him his carries, like they normally do, he'll perform just like the top RB hes always been.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'll give you that - the absence of Harvin has definitely taken enabled defenses to key more on AP without the threat of Percy. Still, I think people are underestimating AP.
I think it's time the team took the diapers off Cordarelle Patterson and see what he can do.
Banger
Footballguy
I don't own AP in any leagues but what a complete playcalling disaster last night. You have a guy that doesn't even know the offense so instead of feeding AP they turned the keys over to Freeman who couldn't complete the simplest of passes. 35% completion rate on 50 passes in what was a close game? I have to think that they'll change the way they use him going forward.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I agree about Ivory, but remember Michael Pittman?...no one I have seen in the past 20 years "ran harder" than him. With that said, without a speck of vision, it got him no where. ADP is special because he is a big boy with very good vision. He is likely going through a transition in his career where he will have to rely more on that vision than just mowing people over like he has been able to do throughout his career. When that transition happens, who know? But I do feel it will happen and he will continue to get his numbers (just in a different way).
Khy
Footballguy
You would indeed be insane to bench him. Unless you're somehow sitting on say... Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Reggie Bush in a start 2 RB league. Then MAYBE.
That said, yes... at this point I'd be a little surprised if Peterson finished Top 5 in PPR. So far his seasons been saved by a couple of big goal line TDs and two massive runs. He's currently on pace for 10.6 runs of 20+ yards and about 5.4 40+ yard runs. He's just not breaking those massive runs he was a season ago. This was to be expected though. That coupled with the fact that this offense is worse than it was last season equals a potential let down season.
In the end though? Right now he's 7th in Rushing Yards, 4th in YPC (over 100att) with 4.4ypc and tied for 5th in TDs with 5. The issue here is this though...
He's 7th in rushing yards with 511... take away his runs of 78 and 60? And he's sitting at 373 yards rushing on 113 carries for an abysmal 3.3ypc. Taking away a simple 2 carries on his season drops his ypc by 1.1. That is 100000000% a massive outlier and cause for concern.
On the same token? His "6 TDs", 2 were on those massive runs which you can't expect him to keep up... maybe he gets 2 more of those on the season? The other 4 though? All goal line type carries, which he's unlikely to see many more of all season. He's in a similar situation as Doug Martin right now. Where he's going to need the defense to get turnovers and get them close to TDs in order for him to get those TDs.
I'm not sure I'm "buying low" on AP right now. If anything I'm trying to sell him at the #1 RB name value he has and get something great in return. If you can somehow flip him and your QB1 for say Peyton Manning? I'd do it. If you can somehow flip him for Calvin or Dez? I'd probably do it. And if you can by some miracle package something like Moreno and a high WR2 for him I'd also just do it.
That said, yes... at this point I'd be a little surprised if Peterson finished Top 5 in PPR. So far his seasons been saved by a couple of big goal line TDs and two massive runs. He's currently on pace for 10.6 runs of 20+ yards and about 5.4 40+ yard runs. He's just not breaking those massive runs he was a season ago. This was to be expected though. That coupled with the fact that this offense is worse than it was last season equals a potential let down season.
In the end though? Right now he's 7th in Rushing Yards, 4th in YPC (over 100att) with 4.4ypc and tied for 5th in TDs with 5. The issue here is this though...
He's 7th in rushing yards with 511... take away his runs of 78 and 60? And he's sitting at 373 yards rushing on 113 carries for an abysmal 3.3ypc. Taking away a simple 2 carries on his season drops his ypc by 1.1. That is 100000000% a massive outlier and cause for concern.
On the same token? His "6 TDs", 2 were on those massive runs which you can't expect him to keep up... maybe he gets 2 more of those on the season? The other 4 though? All goal line type carries, which he's unlikely to see many more of all season. He's in a similar situation as Doug Martin right now. Where he's going to need the defense to get turnovers and get them close to TDs in order for him to get those TDs.
I'm not sure I'm "buying low" on AP right now. If anything I'm trying to sell him at the #1 RB name value he has and get something great in return. If you can somehow flip him and your QB1 for say Peyton Manning? I'd do it. If you can somehow flip him for Calvin or Dez? I'd probably do it. And if you can by some miracle package something like Moreno and a high WR2 for him I'd also just do it.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Only thing is AP really started putting up the video game numbers last year after Harvin's injury. Let's throw out the game Harvin got injured in (at Seattle) and look at before and after splits.zamboni said:
FBG PPG before Seattle game last year: 14.4
FBG PPG after Seattle game: 23.2
Now, correlation <> causation, but there's more to it than just Harvin being out
donkshow
Footballguy
Maybe if they ran more than 10-12 times. He should be getting 25+ rushes a game regardless of the score. He's far and away their best and most dynamic player and yet they throw 50+ with Freeman who was playing horrendous.
If you're going to go that route, give him 8-10 targets as a receiver as he can use his running ability for YAC. He was 2-28 in the passing game. If he's open, give him the dump off pass and he will still put up big yards on screen passes.
The last two weeks have been extremely frustrating since I acquired AP on his bye week.
If you're going to go that route, give him 8-10 targets as a receiver as he can use his running ability for YAC. He was 2-28 in the passing game. If he's open, give him the dump off pass and he will still put up big yards on screen passes.
The last two weeks have been extremely frustrating since I acquired AP on his bye week.
zamboni
Footballguy
Absolutely - Harvin is only one factor, but still a key one since defenses are keying on him and the OL is not creating as many holes as last year.
gethugefast1
Footballguy
biju
Footballguy
Well, I am frustrated by the Vikings QB situation but we can't really assume the passing game will look so futile. I think the Vikings really ####ed up putting Freeman in that position and really should have put Ponder/Cassel in there for one more week.
Once they get a semblance of a passing game going (hopefully by involving Patterson more) I think it will open up more. It was clear Freeman couldn't move the ball and only had a handful of plays to work with.
Once they get a semblance of a passing game going (hopefully by involving Patterson more) I think it will open up more. It was clear Freeman couldn't move the ball and only had a handful of plays to work with.
gcmmidwest
Footballguy
i have not seen any reports that Ivory made it out of that game unscathed ..,but if he's healthy ..,he gets the nod ..,the packers have only allowed a hundred yard rusher once this year(wash.) i like my chances a lot better w/ Ivory vs. Cincy.
I also agree AP needs more touches ..,SF learned quickly that abandoning the run w/ Gore didn't work..,i think it's the same with AP..,but until they can balance out the offense they will stack the box.
zamboni
Footballguy
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Peterson has had some of his best games against GB. Everyone stacks the box against him. That's nothing new.gcmmidwest said:
You should definitely sit him.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
AP
D. Martin
T-Rich
Spiller
having an early pick wasnt a benefit this year thats for sure
add Ray Rice
D. Martin
T-Rich
Spiller
having an early pick wasnt a benefit this year thats for sure
add Ray Rice
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Khy
Footballguy
Define "killing it"?
ADP before the bye: 92 rushes, 421 yards, 4.58 ypc. Team average of 28.75ppg.
ADP after the bye: 23 rushes, 90 yards, 3.91ypc. Team average of 8.5ppg
ADP before the bye subtracting his runs over 20 yards: 89 rushes, 247 yards, 2.77ypc
So there you have it... take away just 3 of his rushes on the season? And he's now averaging nearly 2ypc less than he is with those 3 runs. I'm not saying you can just ignore them, they did happen. But statistics tell us outliers shouldn't be ignored when evaluating situations like these. He had 3 monster runs and otherwise has done jack all season. And now the team is in turmoil and they're putting up 20 less PPG then they were going into the bye. So now you can't expect him to get 2-3 goal line opportunities a game. At this point AP's value is contingent on him breaking monster runs every week.
Hell, technically? He's running even BETTER now than he was prior to the bye. 3.91ypc vs 2.77ypc
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This is all just silly talk and I'll tell you why:
Peterson is the Calvin Johnson of RBs
He might slump, but just when you give up in him and bench him for a Chris ivory type character that is when he is going to tear it up and go for 200 yards and 3 Tds on your bench.
You drafted him at #1 overall to play him barring injury or bye weeks. Every week no brainer start. Don't get cute. Take the good performances with the bad.
Besides, it was Freeman's FIRST game as the starting qb of the Vikings. He had been in the team or all of 12 days. I don't think freeman is a great qb but I think he can be easily what cassell is and definitely better than ponder. I can see him improving greatly in week 8.
If you miss on his big explosions you will hate yourself.
Peterson is the Calvin Johnson of RBs
He might slump, but just when you give up in him and bench him for a Chris ivory type character that is when he is going to tear it up and go for 200 yards and 3 Tds on your bench.
You drafted him at #1 overall to play him barring injury or bye weeks. Every week no brainer start. Don't get cute. Take the good performances with the bad.
Besides, it was Freeman's FIRST game as the starting qb of the Vikings. He had been in the team or all of 12 days. I don't think freeman is a great qb but I think he can be easily what cassell is and definitely better than ponder. I can see him improving greatly in week 8.
If you miss on his big explosions you will hate yourself.
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oukurt
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
AP is still #8 in PPG while Ray Rice (#22), Martin (#27), Richardson (#39), and Spiller (#40) are far behind him.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
It was if you don't buy into having to pick a RB with your first pick. You know how many T Rich's and Spillers I need to draft just to equal 1 Peyton Manning?ebsteelers said:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Harvin wasn't even playing when he did most of his damage.Gvindy said:
9 games with Harvin 957 yards
7 games without 1140 yards
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gcmmidwest
Footballguy
I will be very surprise if they start Freeman at home vs Greenbay... Minnesota fans "only" go to the stadium see AP run and if you take that away from them, they will revolt against the team and stop going to the games and/or buying merchandise.. This experiment is over.. They will start Cassel or Ponder next Sunday....what he said
SportsGuru311
Footballguy
Frazier is just not implementing him right now. He didn't have all that many carries in the Giants game. AP is still a stud
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Except no one was drafting Peyton as the 1st QB.
Peterson is still RB5 in non-ppr. The top drafted QBs and WRs aren't really doing any better relative to the rest of their position. Aaron Rodgers is QB8, and QB8 is much more of a bust than RB5. Peterson has basically had one bad game. The only position where the top drafted guy is actually performing as the top producing guy is Graham at TE, and he just put up a donut and is out injured.
OU#1
Footballguy
Still the best RB in the NFL right now hands down, and even on a bad team he's still a fantasy RB1. He's always been one of the most consistent fantasy plays too as far as scoring around his ADP by the end of the season (at least from what I've seen, but somebody may want to back that up with evidence). He's always had a boom or bust type of stat line; you can't take away his big runs because that's who he is. Overreaction to a rough patch? I think yes, but I'm extremely biased as he's my favorite player in the NFL. So I'll try to back up my stance with a couple thoughts:
You guys seem to have forgotten about all of the bad QB's that he has put up RB1 fantasy numbers with. Even after what we saw from Freeman which was miserable, I think Freeman is an upgrade over any QB that he played with to date not named Farve.
When are you guys going to realize that stacking the box versus Adrian typically leads to him burning the defense with those huge runs for TDs. IMHO that is a good thing. I believe this was most apparent his rookie season when he was the only threat on the team...oh wait...he's still the only threat.
So many ppl questioned him last year and looked what happened. I'm buying low if I can, and I don't even care about his tough fantasy playoff schedule.
Long story long, he's still a RB1, and that is a hot commodity right now. There are people freaking out because they should have went TE/WR/WR/WR/Whatever and picked up some flyer in the later rounds to be their RB1. Wait, isn't that what VBD is all about? Isn't this why the true top RB1's go in the first round typically in every format still, because it gives your team a points advantage over the rest of the field?
If the likes of Forte and Charles keep it up, congratz to them. I still think Adrian is a lock for a top 5 RB, which is still extremely valuable to any fantasy team lucky enough to have him.
You guys seem to have forgotten about all of the bad QB's that he has put up RB1 fantasy numbers with. Even after what we saw from Freeman which was miserable, I think Freeman is an upgrade over any QB that he played with to date not named Farve.
When are you guys going to realize that stacking the box versus Adrian typically leads to him burning the defense with those huge runs for TDs. IMHO that is a good thing. I believe this was most apparent his rookie season when he was the only threat on the team...oh wait...he's still the only threat.
So many ppl questioned him last year and looked what happened. I'm buying low if I can, and I don't even care about his tough fantasy playoff schedule.
Long story long, he's still a RB1, and that is a hot commodity right now. There are people freaking out because they should have went TE/WR/WR/WR/Whatever and picked up some flyer in the later rounds to be their RB1. Wait, isn't that what VBD is all about? Isn't this why the true top RB1's go in the first round typically in every format still, because it gives your team a points advantage over the rest of the field?
If the likes of Forte and Charles keep it up, congratz to them. I still think Adrian is a lock for a top 5 RB, which is still extremely valuable to any fantasy team lucky enough to have him.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Pretty rare for athletes to follow up their career best season with an "even better career best season"... that's why they call them career best seasons.
Not sure anyone other than ADP thought he was serious about 2500 yards. Conventional wisdom has to dictate that he would be a notch or two below last season at best - even for a freak of nature - and then never come close to repeating it (as he closes in on 30).
Not sure anyone other than ADP thought he was serious about 2500 yards. Conventional wisdom has to dictate that he would be a notch or two below last season at best - even for a freak of nature - and then never come close to repeating it (as he closes in on 30).
buckeye35
Footballguy
I'm not worried. Last year, through his first 6 games:
113 carries, 499 yards, 2 TDs; 13 catches, 79 yards, 0 TDs
This year, through 6 games:
115 carries, 511 yards, 5 TDs; 16 catches, 101 yards, 1 TD
In two games vs. Green Bay last year, he went 55/409/2 (7.4 yards/carry); 2/12/1
It ain't over til it's over.
113 carries, 499 yards, 2 TDs; 13 catches, 79 yards, 0 TDs
This year, through 6 games:
115 carries, 511 yards, 5 TDs; 16 catches, 101 yards, 1 TD
In two games vs. Green Bay last year, he went 55/409/2 (7.4 yards/carry); 2/12/1
It ain't over til it's over.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Reports are AP is pissed at how he was used on MNF. That is great news for AP owners...that means he will get over fed the rock this week. Happens all the time in the NFL....some idiot coaches tries to out think everyone by not targeting his best player .... best player gets mad....next week it is jail break time. See Mike Wallace week 2 this year....see Brandon Marshall vs Giants....etc etc
cstu
Footballguy
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I don't know if there is anything on this earth short of a hummer from Emma Watson that would do it for me.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I tried to get him in my redraft and the owner wanted way to much. I give Brees, Gronk, and Cj2k and I get Peterson and Luck. Quarterbacks friendly league, they score a ton of points.
