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AFC Championship Pregame - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jeff Pasquino
- Start date
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'll say:
PIT -4
O/U 37.5
PIT -4
O/U 37.5
belljr
Footballguy
I agree with the first part... it's going be a heavyweight fightThis is a knock down, drag out, 50-50 proposition right here. Let's go RAVENS, HON!
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Sheesh.PIT -6O/U 33.5I'll sayIT -4O/U 37.5
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Bloodbath part 3. The winner of the Eagles/Cards are fortunate because I expect many injuries out of the AFC championship game.
belljr
Footballguy
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Shutterbug
Try Not To Stare
timschochet
Footballguy
I want to face them. I want to crush them. I hope they play a terrible game, and then say to themselves, "Man, the Steelers are good and we suck." That would make me happy
CrossEyed
Footballguy
I think the Steeler D will expose Flacco's inexperience and I think the Steelers will move the ball better against a tired Ranven's D.27-10 Steelers.
beermutts
Footballguy
Why would this game be any different than the 2 before it. Flacco played 2 great games. The Steelers outplayed them for 15 seconds in the 1st game and 2 minutes in the 2nd. If you want to say the defense let us down in those 2 games than I would agree, but Flacco isn't going to get exposed....
poopdawg
Footballguy
I sure hope so. The Ravens backfield is a mess and I dont see a rookie QB winning his first three playoff games, but that defense scares me.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
OK, thanks Jack Handey.I want to face them. I want to crush them. I hope they play a terrible game, and then say to themselves, "Man, the Steelers are good and we suck." That would make me happy
joefootball
Footballguy
I like Pitt to roll. Pitt D is better and their offense is more experienced. Big Ben has won the big games before plus at home I dont see Balt winning this game.beermutts said:
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5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
It should be a low-scoring slugfest, regardless of who wins.
The Ravens are easily way more beat up than Pittsburgh is right now. That could wind up being a huge factor. Add in the Heinz Field Jinx the Ravens haven't been able to shake.......it's pretty tough to pick against Pittsburgh.
The X Factor will probably be which team forces more turnovers. The Ravens, quite frankly, will be lucky to score 14 points on the Pittsburgh D with their offense. If Reed picks off something and houses it though, then it's a whole other animal.
Should be a great game to watch. I really, really hope the refs don't try and put themselves front and center for this one, for BOTH teams' sakes.
Flacco game 2 vs. Pitt: 11 for 28, 115 yards, 39.3% completions, no TDs, 2 picks, QB rating of 22.2
First game Flacco was pretty decent. That loss certainly wasn't on him. The second game, however, the Steelers defense made him their kitty, in his house no less.
By comparison:
Roethlisberger game one vs. Balt: 14 for 24, 191 yards, 58.3% completions, 1 TD, 1 pick, QB rating of 80.4
Roethlisberger game two vs. Balt: 22 for 40, 246 yards, 55.0% completions, 1 TD, no picks, QB rating of 81.9
Honestly, I wouldn't be expecting either QB to set the world on fire next week with the way both defenses have been playing, but if I'm picking one of the two it wouldn't be Flacco. The last time these teams played, Flacco looked exactly like what he is: a rookie quarterback. **** LeBeau vs. a rookie QB he's already seen twice and has a full seasons+ of tape to watch on him now? I'd wager that the smart money there is on LeBeau.
The Ravens may well win, but it probably isn't going to be because of Joe Flacco. Just my opinion.
The Ravens are easily way more beat up than Pittsburgh is right now. That could wind up being a huge factor. Add in the Heinz Field Jinx the Ravens haven't been able to shake.......it's pretty tough to pick against Pittsburgh.
The X Factor will probably be which team forces more turnovers. The Ravens, quite frankly, will be lucky to score 14 points on the Pittsburgh D with their offense. If Reed picks off something and houses it though, then it's a whole other animal.
Should be a great game to watch. I really, really hope the refs don't try and put themselves front and center for this one, for BOTH teams' sakes.
He did, did he?Flacco game one vs. Pitt:16 for 31, 192 yards, 51.6% completions, 1 TD, no picks, QB rating of 81.7
Flacco game 2 vs. Pitt: 11 for 28, 115 yards, 39.3% completions, no TDs, 2 picks, QB rating of 22.2
First game Flacco was pretty decent. That loss certainly wasn't on him. The second game, however, the Steelers defense made him their kitty, in his house no less.
By comparison:
Roethlisberger game one vs. Balt: 14 for 24, 191 yards, 58.3% completions, 1 TD, 1 pick, QB rating of 80.4
Roethlisberger game two vs. Balt: 22 for 40, 246 yards, 55.0% completions, 1 TD, no picks, QB rating of 81.9
Honestly, I wouldn't be expecting either QB to set the world on fire next week with the way both defenses have been playing, but if I'm picking one of the two it wouldn't be Flacco. The last time these teams played, Flacco looked exactly like what he is: a rookie quarterback. **** LeBeau vs. a rookie QB he's already seen twice and has a full seasons+ of tape to watch on him now? I'd wager that the smart money there is on LeBeau.
The Ravens may well win, but it probably isn't going to be because of Joe Flacco. Just my opinion.
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5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Agreed. As great as that Baltimore defense is playing, this is a game Tomlin NEEDS to win if he wants to wear the big boy pants.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
That's how I took it though. "Letting Flacco come in and go ape-s%$@#% to beat them for the AFCC will haunt him." If they wind up losing to Baltimore 6-3 and Flacco looks like sauteed dog crap then that's more of a "them's the breaks" kinda thing.
timschochet
Footballguy
One of my favorite Steeler moments ever was the 27-10 pounding of Baltimore in the 2000 playoffs. From Steelertribute.com:
A shocking announcement came before the game even began - Jerome Bettis had a bad reaction to a painkiller shot and was unable to play! But it was no problem once again as Amos Zeroue, who beat up on the Ravens last time, carried the load again. I predicted that Elvis Grbac would throw an interception for a TD on his first pass of the game. I was close - Grbac was intercepted by Chad Scott on his first pass of the game, but it only resulted in a FG for the Steelers. However, it set the tone for what would be the defense's best game of the season. Later in the first quarter, the Steelers drove 51 yards and got a short TD run by Zeroue. In the last game, the Ravens kept getting great field position. This time, it was the Steelers who always seemed to have a short field to work with, thanks to the total domination of the defense. Baltimore didn't even get a first down until the end of the half, and they couldn't convert on opportunites. At one point in the first half, the Ravens defense intercepted Kordell Stewart and returned the ball to the 7 yard line, but Brent Alexander picked off Grbac in the endzone, and the threat was over. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continued to move the ball on a short field and wore out the Ravens defense. Zeroue had another short TD run, this time leaping over the Ravens d-line for the score. When the defense caused a fumble, Kris Brown got into the scoring act. After missing a shorter FG, Brown came out to a standing ovation from the crowd and drilled a 46 yarder! Never let it be said that we have anything to do with hurting Kris Brown's confidence. The Ravens got a desperartion FG before the half, but their offense was too anemic to do anything else. Their "great" defense, which had given up a total of 19 points in their previous 5 post-season games, had given up 20 in the first two quarters of this game! But in their defense, they actually played decently. You can only do so much when your offense is keeping you on the field all the time.
In the second half, the Ravens got a boost when Jermaine Lewis set a post-season record by returning a punt 88 yards for a TD. Unreal - all they talked about this week was how very dangerous Lewis is as a kick returner, and then he burns us like that! That guy is SO good, but fortunately for us, it didn't matter. The defense continued its destruction. Stewart later hit Plaxico Burress for a 32 yard TD. It was a great play, because he stiff-armed former Steeler and future Hall of Famer Rod Woodson on his way into the endzone. The Steelers are so much more physical than the Ravens. At one point, FB Dan Kreider pancaked Ray Lewis into the gorund! That play totally symbolized the way we've owned that team this year. Brent Alexander added another interception in the endzone to ice it. Bill Cowher walked off the field holding two fingers up and saying, "Two more...."
We completely dominated the Ravens for a third and final time, and this one wasn't even close. The defense showed why they are the best in the NFL. Ravens RB Terry Allen, who pounded Miami's supposedly good defense last week, wound up with 11 yards and a fumble! Grbac couldn't do anything against us. They would have been better off this year with Dilfer, because at least he is cheap. Even Shannon Sharpe said after the game, "As much as it pains me to say this, they have a better team than we do." You've got that right, you piece of crap. Now why don't you go join your buddy Goose in retirement. It was so great seeing those cocky losers go down in flames. Brian Billick kept wincing in pain on the sidelines, as if to say, "But I'm such a genius - how could this be happening again?!"
A shocking announcement came before the game even began - Jerome Bettis had a bad reaction to a painkiller shot and was unable to play! But it was no problem once again as Amos Zeroue, who beat up on the Ravens last time, carried the load again. I predicted that Elvis Grbac would throw an interception for a TD on his first pass of the game. I was close - Grbac was intercepted by Chad Scott on his first pass of the game, but it only resulted in a FG for the Steelers. However, it set the tone for what would be the defense's best game of the season. Later in the first quarter, the Steelers drove 51 yards and got a short TD run by Zeroue. In the last game, the Ravens kept getting great field position. This time, it was the Steelers who always seemed to have a short field to work with, thanks to the total domination of the defense. Baltimore didn't even get a first down until the end of the half, and they couldn't convert on opportunites. At one point in the first half, the Ravens defense intercepted Kordell Stewart and returned the ball to the 7 yard line, but Brent Alexander picked off Grbac in the endzone, and the threat was over. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continued to move the ball on a short field and wore out the Ravens defense. Zeroue had another short TD run, this time leaping over the Ravens d-line for the score. When the defense caused a fumble, Kris Brown got into the scoring act. After missing a shorter FG, Brown came out to a standing ovation from the crowd and drilled a 46 yarder! Never let it be said that we have anything to do with hurting Kris Brown's confidence. The Ravens got a desperartion FG before the half, but their offense was too anemic to do anything else. Their "great" defense, which had given up a total of 19 points in their previous 5 post-season games, had given up 20 in the first two quarters of this game! But in their defense, they actually played decently. You can only do so much when your offense is keeping you on the field all the time.
In the second half, the Ravens got a boost when Jermaine Lewis set a post-season record by returning a punt 88 yards for a TD. Unreal - all they talked about this week was how very dangerous Lewis is as a kick returner, and then he burns us like that! That guy is SO good, but fortunately for us, it didn't matter. The defense continued its destruction. Stewart later hit Plaxico Burress for a 32 yard TD. It was a great play, because he stiff-armed former Steeler and future Hall of Famer Rod Woodson on his way into the endzone. The Steelers are so much more physical than the Ravens. At one point, FB Dan Kreider pancaked Ray Lewis into the gorund! That play totally symbolized the way we've owned that team this year. Brent Alexander added another interception in the endzone to ice it. Bill Cowher walked off the field holding two fingers up and saying, "Two more...."
We completely dominated the Ravens for a third and final time, and this one wasn't even close. The defense showed why they are the best in the NFL. Ravens RB Terry Allen, who pounded Miami's supposedly good defense last week, wound up with 11 yards and a fumble! Grbac couldn't do anything against us. They would have been better off this year with Dilfer, because at least he is cheap. Even Shannon Sharpe said after the game, "As much as it pains me to say this, they have a better team than we do." You've got that right, you piece of crap. Now why don't you go join your buddy Goose in retirement. It was so great seeing those cocky losers go down in flames. Brian Billick kept wincing in pain on the sidelines, as if to say, "But I'm such a genius - how could this be happening again?!"
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
One of MY favorite Steeler memories.
Wouldn't be the last time Dan did it, either.Is Dan even on a roster these days? I know St. Louis picked him up earlier this year. No idea if he was on the team at the end of the season or not.
JZilla
Footballguy
2002. Smart!
A little bit of overstatement here, considering they were coming off a Super Bowl championship season?
Well.. yeah... that was a pretty rough go.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Thanks, I was about to post something similar. In addition to the 22.2 rating, the Ravens offense (not fair just to blame Flacco):1. failed to convert in the red zone
2. failed to take advantage of many short fields presented by the Ravens defense and special teams
3. got pushed out of FG range when up 9-6 late in the fourth quarter by a sack
The additional items in the above list don't just demonstrate how Flacco was hardly playing "great" in these games; they also demonstrate how the Ravens are very dangerous, as despite a 22.2 QB rating, red zone inefficiency, etc., they still nearly won the game.
Titans played the Ravens very well. Steelers will surely be watching that and mixing that in with their previous success but IIRC Flacco only threw 8 passes in the first half. I'd expect the Ravens to do much of the same, pound the run game and only expose the rook a minimal amount.CrossEyed said:
very hard to beat one team three times in a year.
Came up often with NFC East teams in the playoffs, years ago with Pats Colts in playoffs and AFC East, AFC West teams when Denver was real good......there's alot of precedent. I think it's something to keep in mind before people gift the Steelers a 3rd W.
Came up often with NFC East teams in the playoffs, years ago with Pats Colts in playoffs and AFC East, AFC West teams when Denver was real good......there's alot of precedent. I think it's something to keep in mind before people gift the Steelers a 3rd W.
The Jerk
Footballguy
There have been 18 previous instances in the NFL playoffs of a team playing an opponent it has beaten twice already that year.The team that won the first two games has won the third game 11 out of 18 games (61%)
When at home and with a better record, the results improve to 9-4 (69%)
See for yourself (and add the Giants beating the Cowboys last year) at Pro-Football-Reference
The "it's hard to beat a good team three times" line is basically a myth, based on those numbers.
Now it's also a possibility that it's a misapplied statement. After all, many times (like Giants-Eagles this season), teams meet for a third time having already split; therefore, it's a guarantee that neither team can win all three games.
I don't take it as that. 7 of 18 times the team and/or fans were confident they'd win a 3rd time based on the previous two wins. My point(and whoever thought to look it up and discuss years ago) is simply that the first two Ws doesn't assure a 3rd W.I don't follow that last qualifying line.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I'm so glad someone finally put up #s to blow up that stupid maxim. It's no harder to beat a team for a third time in one year than it is to beat them the first time.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
F'in Billick was just on Mike & Mike spewing this exact nonsense. What a pud.
poopdawg
Footballguy
Seriously? I know it wont be a shootout, but anyone that has played football can apreciate these two teams knocking the snot out of each other for 60 minutes.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
It is weird that people continue to say it when it is absolute rubbish. That being said the two previous Ravens games could have gone the other way and I expect this game to be more of the same. The two things the Steelers have going for them is that Baltimore is pretty beat up and the Steelers are playing at home. Still I was surprised to hear the Ravens were getting 5 points.
CrossEyed
Footballguy
This is going to be a great football game.
timschochet
Footballguy
I thought the Steelers were much more innovative on offense yesterday without sacrificing the running game. Willie Parker seems healthy, and he has the sort of speed that bothers the Ravens (witness what Chris Johnson was able to do.)
I honestly believe that, despite the closeness of the past two games, this one's not going to be all that close. The Steelers really are a much better team than Baltimore. I think we win pretty easily.
I honestly believe that, despite the closeness of the past two games, this one's not going to be all that close. The Steelers really are a much better team than Baltimore. I think we win pretty easily.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I like the Steelers to win this one something along the lines of 17-13 or 24-20.
The_Man
Footballguy
As a Ravens season ticket owner, I thought Baltimore's season was going to end last week. 17 straight weeks of play, a banged-up team on a short week after playing on the road in the heat at Miami -- and the Ravens definitely looked a step slow and fatigued in their tackling. Chris Johnson would have eaten them up if he had stayed in the game, and would have ended that no-100-yard rusher vs. the Ravens streak in the process.
But the Ravens showed unbelievable heart and stole a game they had no business winning. One of the things I admire about the defense is the way it never concedes anything, even when the opponent is inside the 10. I think that's part of why the Ravens hated the replay TD in the second game this year so much -- they felt like the refs let the Steelers in the end zone instead of making Pittsburgh earn it themselves.
So, I feel about this game like I did last week's -- only moreso. The Ravens aren't practicing until Wednesday, so that's probably the earliest we'll get much good injury info, but the Ravens were already walking wounded (Mason, Heap, Reed) and now they're a lot worse off (I bet Rolle will be out, which is a disaster; Willie Anderson, McClain, Leonhard, Suggs).
I will say that the Ravens don't fear Parker -- even if healthy -- the way they do a truly elite back with speed, like CJ. To me, Parker's game seems to be based on bursting through an empty gap and then using his speed to outrun pursuit. With the Ravens, there are no empty gaps and since Parker is not a good tackle-breaker, he doesn't do much vs. baltimore. His careers stats vs the Ravens:
08: 14 for 47
07: 23 for 42
06: 10 for 22, 13 for 29
05: 14 for 63, 18 for 59
I'm much more worried about Pittsburgh's WRs. They killed the Ravens twice this year once they spread the field -- in particular, the Ravens seem unable to defend the Steelers when they line up in that bunch formation, either with 3 WRs, or 2 WRs and a TE. And if Rolle is out, then it's going to be even worse.
If Suggs and Rolle can play at full speed, then I think the Ravens could maybe get lucky and steal another one. The Steelers special teams and trouble in pass protection, coupled with the big play capability of Baltimore's D, could make possible another 13-10 squeaker. But I'm thinking a 24-6 Steelers win that isn't in question by the start of the 4th quarter is more likely.
But the Ravens showed unbelievable heart and stole a game they had no business winning. One of the things I admire about the defense is the way it never concedes anything, even when the opponent is inside the 10. I think that's part of why the Ravens hated the replay TD in the second game this year so much -- they felt like the refs let the Steelers in the end zone instead of making Pittsburgh earn it themselves.
So, I feel about this game like I did last week's -- only moreso. The Ravens aren't practicing until Wednesday, so that's probably the earliest we'll get much good injury info, but the Ravens were already walking wounded (Mason, Heap, Reed) and now they're a lot worse off (I bet Rolle will be out, which is a disaster; Willie Anderson, McClain, Leonhard, Suggs).
I will say that the Ravens don't fear Parker -- even if healthy -- the way they do a truly elite back with speed, like CJ. To me, Parker's game seems to be based on bursting through an empty gap and then using his speed to outrun pursuit. With the Ravens, there are no empty gaps and since Parker is not a good tackle-breaker, he doesn't do much vs. baltimore. His careers stats vs the Ravens:
08: 14 for 47
07: 23 for 42
06: 10 for 22, 13 for 29
05: 14 for 63, 18 for 59
I'm much more worried about Pittsburgh's WRs. They killed the Ravens twice this year once they spread the field -- in particular, the Ravens seem unable to defend the Steelers when they line up in that bunch formation, either with 3 WRs, or 2 WRs and a TE. And if Rolle is out, then it's going to be even worse.
If Suggs and Rolle can play at full speed, then I think the Ravens could maybe get lucky and steal another one. The Steelers special teams and trouble in pass protection, coupled with the big play capability of Baltimore's D, could make possible another 13-10 squeaker. But I'm thinking a 24-6 Steelers win that isn't in question by the start of the 4th quarter is more likely.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Really good analysis here. I agree 100% with every word you said except I can't see the Steelers getting that far ahead by the start of the 4th. Possible, but I wouldn't say likely. Great post.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
I think that is the key... playing in the heat in Miami... playing a physical battle against Tennessee on the road... and the fact that their BYE week was in Week 2... all of that seems to point to fatigue.The only concern on that end as a Steelers fan is the fact that Ben sometimes makes stupid mistakes or tries to make something happen when nothing is there. You can't do that against these ball hawking ravens. Doesn't bode well. Plus... you can FORGET fatigue a little when you are playing your rivals with everything on the line. The Steelers IMO need to start fast in order to make the Ravens REMEMBER that they are tired. Maybe that analysis is too simple but I believe it. You gotta break the Ravens will early and you gotta rattle Flacco's cage. Cam Cameron scares me because he has shown that he can get the most out of Flacco and his laser rocket arm.
Plus... I'm sorry but I lost a little respect for Ed Reed after this weekend's game. You gotta be better than BENDING a dude backwards when you know the whistle has blown and he is in a position where you could cause serious damage. I hate cheap shots and I know that a lot of people do that (some Steelers included) but I felt that this was different. I can see a cheap shot where you come in late and spear a dude.... its STUPID but I understand that your emotions get to you in that moment and you wanna nail somebody. This wasn't IMO one of those times... he didn't hit and then back off... he hit and then DROVE HIM BACKWARDS AFTER THE WHISTLE KNOWING FULL WELL THAT 2 GUYS WERE LAYING ON HIS LEGS!!
THAT'S BUSH LEAGUE!!
The_Man
Footballguy
I love me some Ravens, but I'm also a realist. If Rolle can't play, then the Ravens can't blitz effectively, and that's what their defense is based on.
Will be watching the replays of the previous Balt-Pitt games tonight on NFL Network -- and I'm almost positive that Pittsburgh began moving the ball on Baltimore in the rematch after Rolle went out with injury and was replaced by Frank Walker.
If the Ravens are to compete, they need to let Flacco take some shots. Vs. the Titans, eleven times the Ravens faced a down and distance of second down with less than 10 yards to go. Nine times they ran the ball. The Titans were not respecting the pass and completely snuffed those second down runs.
Here are the second downs, with yards to go, and the play's result:
4 yards to go, rush for -4 yards
8 to go, rush for -1
2 to go, rush for 1
7 to go, incl. pass
8 to go, rush for -2
9 to go, pass to Mason for 10 yards
3 to go, rush for 4 (First Down)
2 to go, rush for -1
8 to go, rush for -2
4 to go, rush for 2
9 to go, rush for 0
In summary, on second down when facing fewer than 10 yards to go:
9 carries for -3 yards, one first down.
1 for 2 passing, 10 yards, one first down.
The Ravens actually had some first down success, but second down was a disaster. Vs. Pittsburgh, that needs to be Flacco's play action passing down -- and he has to throw something other than 10-yard outs and fake 10-yard outs that use a double move to become a fly pattern.
Where is Heap and the crossing route? Where are the checkdowns to the RBs?
Will be watching the replays of the previous Balt-Pitt games tonight on NFL Network -- and I'm almost positive that Pittsburgh began moving the ball on Baltimore in the rematch after Rolle went out with injury and was replaced by Frank Walker.
If the Ravens are to compete, they need to let Flacco take some shots. Vs. the Titans, eleven times the Ravens faced a down and distance of second down with less than 10 yards to go. Nine times they ran the ball. The Titans were not respecting the pass and completely snuffed those second down runs.
Here are the second downs, with yards to go, and the play's result:
4 yards to go, rush for -4 yards
8 to go, rush for -1
2 to go, rush for 1
7 to go, incl. pass
8 to go, rush for -2
9 to go, pass to Mason for 10 yards
3 to go, rush for 4 (First Down)
2 to go, rush for -1
8 to go, rush for -2
4 to go, rush for 2
9 to go, rush for 0
In summary, on second down when facing fewer than 10 yards to go:
9 carries for -3 yards, one first down.
1 for 2 passing, 10 yards, one first down.
The Ravens actually had some first down success, but second down was a disaster. Vs. Pittsburgh, that needs to be Flacco's play action passing down -- and he has to throw something other than 10-yard outs and fake 10-yard outs that use a double move to become a fly pattern.
Where is Heap and the crossing route? Where are the checkdowns to the RBs?
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Steelers4Life
Footballguy
What's the early word on the injuries to Suggs, Rolle, and McClain?
I expect Suggs to play, but Rolle's groin injury looked pretty bad and McClain's injury seemed to really limit him in the 2nd half.
The Steelers are very healthy right now.
I expect Suggs to play, but Rolle's groin injury looked pretty bad and McClain's injury seemed to really limit him in the 2nd half.
The Steelers are very healthy right now.
