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***AFCC - Buffalo 15-4 at Kansas City 16-2*** (-2, 47.5) 6:30 (3 Viewers)

I get it if you’re not a Chiefs fan. It sucks when one team wins a lot and any favorable call seems egregious. I was known in my day to want to punch the wall watching Brady. I thought he was the luckiest guy ever and maybe lost my **** during the Bucs Super Bowl win. But I wasn’t posting weekly of a grand conspiracy and fix by the refs/league. Ludicrous to me that it’s considered believable. Just hate them on principle like we all did Tom.
I don't think it's a conspiracy. I just think the officials are human and subject to bias, and the league office likes dynasties. No coordination necessary.

I like Mahomes. I have nothing at all against the Chiefs, aside from wanting to beat them. They're a great team. I don't know that I've ever posted anything negative about this team, other that simply observing that they are on the officials' good side, and that's not really their fault. You don't see me apologizing when Allen draws 15 yards on a flop.

The league is well aware of the fact that they have an optics problem regarding officiating, and they voluntarily choose not to address it. We are allowed to draw inferences from the lack of action.
This part is why I always roll my eyes about "it's so hard to win @ ___", "tough place to play", etc. Home field advantage is almost entirely the refs. They are easily swayed and home teams get a massive edge in EPA from penalties and not at all because they're playing any different at home.

Now, fast forward to every AFCG, which the Chiefs always host. If you want to beat KC in the playoffs and you want them to get less calls in the playoffs, it starts with making them play a road game when it matters.
 
I get it if you’re not a Chiefs fan. It sucks when one team wins a lot and any favorable call seems egregious. I was known in my day to want to punch the wall watching Brady. I thought he was the luckiest guy ever and maybe lost my **** during the Bucs Super Bowl win. But I wasn’t posting weekly of a grand conspiracy and fix by the refs/league. Ludicrous to me that it’s considered believable. Just hate them on principle like we all did Tom.
I don't think it's a conspiracy. I just think the officials are human and subject to bias, and the league office likes dynasties. No coordination necessary.

I like Mahomes. I have nothing at all against the Chiefs, aside from wanting to beat them. They're a great team. I don't know that I've ever posted anything negative about this team, other that simply observing that they are on the officials' good side, and that's not really their fault. You don't see me apologizing when Allen draws 15 yards on a flop.

The league is well aware of the fact that they have an optics problem regarding officiating, and they voluntarily choose not to address it. We are allowed to draw inferences from the lack of action.
This part is why I always roll my eyes about "it's so hard to win @ ___", "tough place to play", etc. Home field advantage is almost entirely the refs. They are easily swayed and home teams get a massive edge in EPA from penalties and not at all because they're playing any different at home.

Now, fast forward to every AFCG, which the Chiefs always host. If you want to beat KC in the playoffs and you want them to get less calls in the playoffs, it starts with making them play a road game when it matters.
they went to BUF and to BAL last year and beat both of them in the playoffs...
 
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What will be the over and under on Bills roughing the passer penalties? If it’s not a bet you can make, it should be.
Per a meme I saw this morning, BUF has already been flagged twice for roughing the passer. Penalties will be accessed, as needed, under a separate call TBD.
I’ll allow it but can this be the last ****ing one of these jokes? Have heard it for 3 days now.

:lol:
As an Eagles fan that still hears about snowballs thrown at Santa, I will only say “Good luck with that.”
Don't forget the jail cell!
 
This is wild. Josh Allen vs the Chiefs

Regular season: 4-1 record. 25.8 PPG, 296.2 offensive YPG, 13 total TDs, 4 turnovers

Playoffs: 0-3 record. 28.0 PPG, 342.3 offensive YPG, 9 total TDs, 1 turnover.

And to put it in perspective, those PPG numbers would actually both be well below the 2024 team average (30.9).

(Not a prediction -- the Chiefs have a great defense of course. Just noting that offense has been good even by Allen's standards this year).
 
This is wild. Josh Allen vs the Chiefs

Regular season: 4-1 record. 25.8 PPG, 296.2 offensive YPG, 13 total TDs, 4 turnovers

Playoffs: 0-3 record. 28.0 PPG, 342.3 offensive YPG, 9 total TDs, 1 turnover.

McDermott’s defensive philosophy does not work in the playoffs 😡

Data like this is what makes QB narratives so ridiculous. “Allen” can’t beat “Mahomes” in the playoffs.
 
I would love for Buffalo to pull this out, but I don't feel great about it. I, and I'm sure many others, have a sinking feeling this game will be decided or some questionable call that goes KCs way.

I do think Buffalo should have a lot of success running the ball. Chiefs run D is fine, but they give up some big plays when teams stick to it, and I could see Cook/Allen having good games. I think passing will be tougher.

This would be an ideal time for Amari Cooper to suddenly show up, but that feels unlikely. I don't think Cooper (or Hopkins for that matter) are washed, but I think we underrate how tough it is for a WR to switch teams midseason. Davante Adams (who is also a much more talented player) was an exception because of his history with Rodgers.

I think Mahomes has a nice game against a pretty banged up Bills secondary. We'll see if Johnson and Rapp play. Johnson seems more likely. I can't help but think Kelce was coasting a bit during the regular season. He was wide open for most of the Texans game, and they've been a better pass defense than Buffalo has. Will the Bills pass rush get to Mahomes? In theory, Von Miller vs Jawaan Taylor is a gigantic mismatch, but its easy to see Mahomes just getting it out quickly.

Chiefs-24
Bills-21
agreed on most points. especially the comments about cooper/hopkins not being washed. 100% correct that people underestimate how hard switching teams mid season can be on a WR.

I think this should be a well played game on both sides. its difficult to evaluate the chiefs this year. they seem to play to the level of the completition, and then flip a switch in the 4th quarter and get that game winning drive at the end. To that end there are not many games where we have actually seen KC put together a complete game. which is a little scary considering their record.

one of these days I do think Buffalo will figure this chiefs team out. but I'm not sure it will be this year. for me, this is a coin flip. Temps are predicted to be at or below freezing for the game. both cities are cold weather cities but I'd say buffalo moreso than Kansas city so I'd give them a slight edge based on this . I'm not sure that is enough to overcome KC's home field advantage. Prediction: KC 31 Buffalo 30
 
I will have the great fortune to spend Championship Sunday with my son, won't be posting much during the games

Before I push off I wanted to clear the air about the perception of the Chiefs and the way officials call plays in their football games
By no means are the Chiefs hated nearly the same way as the New England Patriots back when they won 3 in 4 years, 2 other runs the Giants stopped and then another 3 in 5 years which was highlighted with Brady being convicted of fraud during inflategate and then of course you have the Patriots being fined multiple times for recording their opponents in practice and far more egregious types of cheating. I have never felt anything but respect for Andy Reid and his journey as an NFL Head Coach, one of the very best I've ever seen

I don't believe it's as hateful as some Chiefs fans would like to believe. I'm sure the Bills fans hate you because you often stand in their way. Most teams and their fans do not hate on you the way they were feeling when the Patriots were having their way. I can clearly remember the Pats DBs in the snow committing DPI on Harrison and Wayne yet it was never called it seemed. That one AFCC where Manning comes back and they go on and win the Super Bowl, part of why so many loved it was their hatred for the Patriots.

I don't think that many people are going to do barrel rolls for the Bills if they win the football game. I would say the Chiefs have way more fans at home and across the country
Don't take it so personal around here, it's just a message board.
 
I will have the great fortune to spend Championship Sunday with my son, won't be posting much during the games

Before I push off I wanted to clear the air about the perception of the Chiefs and the way officials call plays in their football games
By no means are the Chiefs hated nearly the same way as the New England Patriots back when they won 3 in 4 years, 2 other runs the Giants stopped and then another 3 in 5 years which was highlighted with Brady being convicted of fraud during inflategate and then of course you have the Patriots being fined multiple times for recording their opponents in practice and far more egregious types of cheating. I have never felt anything but respect for Andy Reid and his journey as an NFL Head Coach, one of the very best I've ever seen

I don't believe it's as hateful as some Chiefs fans would like to believe. I'm sure the Bills fans hate you because you often stand in their way. Most teams and their fans do not hate on you the way they were feeling when the Patriots were having their way. I can clearly remember the Pats DBs in the snow committing DPI on Harrison and Wayne yet it was never called it seemed. That one AFCC where Manning comes back and they go on and win the Super Bowl, part of why so many loved it was their hatred for the Patriots.

I don't think that many people are going to do barrel rolls for the Bills if they win the football game. I would say the Chiefs have way more fans at home and across the country
Don't take it so personal around here, it's just a message board.
Yes ok. But on a different note: NO. The overexposure is real. It's the oatmeal we all swimming in. Bunnnndleroooookie indeed. Throw in Swiftee and her Sweetie..we are kinda done here. No fault to a great team doing what it must, but all right already ..Geez. That said if they win it so be it. IF they don't horray for almost everybody else but Chief D.
 
I will have the great fortune to spend Championship Sunday with my son, won't be posting much during the games

Before I push off I wanted to clear the air about the perception of the Chiefs and the way officials call plays in their football games
By no means are the Chiefs hated nearly the same way as the New England Patriots back when they won 3 in 4 years, 2 other runs the Giants stopped and then another 3 in 5 years which was highlighted with Brady being convicted of fraud during inflategate and then of course you have the Patriots being fined multiple times for recording their opponents in practice and far more egregious types of cheating. I have never felt anything but respect for Andy Reid and his journey as an NFL Head Coach, one of the very best I've ever seen

I don't believe it's as hateful as some Chiefs fans would like to believe. I'm sure the Bills fans hate you because you often stand in their way. Most teams and their fans do not hate on you the way they were feeling when the Patriots were having their way. I can clearly remember the Pats DBs in the snow committing DPI on Harrison and Wayne yet it was never called it seemed. That one AFCC where Manning comes back and they go on and win the Super Bowl, part of why so many loved it was their hatred for the Patriots.

I don't think that many people are going to do barrel rolls for the Bills if they win the football game. I would say the Chiefs have way more fans at home and across the country
Don't take it so personal around here, it's just a message board.
with all do respect I think you are wrong....the overwhelming belief that there is a narrative and it's scripted by the league/refs has reached a boiling point I have never seen and don't think the Pats stuff even comes close........
 
I will have the great fortune to spend Championship Sunday with my son, won't be posting much during the games

Before I push off I wanted to clear the air about the perception of the Chiefs and the way officials call plays in their football games
By no means are the Chiefs hated nearly the same way as the New England Patriots back when they won 3 in 4 years, 2 other runs the Giants stopped and then another 3 in 5 years which was highlighted with Brady being convicted of fraud during inflategate and then of course you have the Patriots being fined multiple times for recording their opponents in practice and far more egregious types of cheating. I have never felt anything but respect for Andy Reid and his journey as an NFL Head Coach, one of the very best I've ever seen

I don't believe it's as hateful as some Chiefs fans would like to believe. I'm sure the Bills fans hate you because you often stand in their way. Most teams and their fans do not hate on you the way they were feeling when the Patriots were having their way. I can clearly remember the Pats DBs in the snow committing DPI on Harrison and Wayne yet it was never called it seemed. That one AFCC where Manning comes back and they go on and win the Super Bowl, part of why so many loved it was their hatred for the Patriots.

I don't think that many people are going to do barrel rolls for the Bills if they win the football game. I would say the Chiefs have way more fans at home and across the country
Don't take it so personal around here, it's just a message board.
Never any love lost between Fins and Pats fans. 🫶

In all seriousness I just wanted to touch upon a couple of things you mentioned:

1) Brady wasn’t convicted of anything for Deflategate. What it came down to was he [rightfully] didn’t trust to hand over his cell phone as part of the investigation, knowing how simple it would be for any of his personal data to be leaked. He was suspended by the league for not being complicit in their witch hunt. They didn’t prove anything, they just decided “more likely than not” that he was guilty of something. The Wells Report was merely confirmation bias. Spygate was also overblown, but in fairness the Pats did it to themselves. Even if they were recording signals, I can’t see how that would give them a competitive advantage given that those signals are changed all the time, and they’re changed all the time for the same reason coaches have always covered their mouths when calling plays: there’s already cameras everywhere and people can see anyway. If Spygate doesn’t happen then Deflategate isn’t a thing either, but the former set up conspiracies to conveniently dismiss the Pats’ success and allow stuff like the latter to come up.

2) I recall the Pats being fined and docked a 1st round pick for Spygate in 2007 and again fined and docked a 3rd round pick in 2021 for filming the Bengals sideline (something about a b-roll for a documentary). Still was dumb to even put themselves in that situation given their reputation at that point. But I don’t recall them being fined for taping any practices. If you’re thinking about the Matt Walsh story about allegedly taping the Rams walkthrough prior to Super Bowl 36, that story was already debunked and the Boston Herald guy who rushed to press to report it was forced to apologize for the error, but the damage had already been done. I am curious about these other “far more egregious types of cheating” you mentioned. If you can remember some examples that weren’t already discussed here then I’d like to hear them.

3) You’re absolutely correct on people loving the Colts comeback against the Pats in the 2006-07 AFCCG. The Pats already knocked off the upstart Chargers with the record-setting LaDainian Tomlinson, and they were well on their way to a 4th Lombardi trophy in 6 years. Peyton Manning was a beloved face of the NFL as one of its most marketable stars and captain of an exciting offense. Brady’s Pats were the obstacle in their way. So of course it was a sigh of relief to non-Pats fans to see somebody else get to the SB for a change. It was part people’s love for Peyton and part their hate for the Pats being too dominant. I can absolutely see that motivation starting to come around on the Chiefs. When one team is routinely beating others’ favorite teams, eventually that one team becomes a target of ire. There’s a lot of Mahomes/Kelce/Reid fatigue if you’re not a Chiefs fan. You’ll see one in virtually every commercial break of an NFL game whether the Chiefs are playing or not. It’s not too different from the dynasty 2.0 version of the Pats when we were (and sometimes still are) seeing Brady, Gronk, and Edelman in ads. I still think the Pats were hated more and going back much further, even as early as the tuck rule game against the Raiders, the narrative being the Pats were a fluke, they were a league darling because of the American symbolism and 9/11, it was a fumble and the league office was out to get Al Davis, etc. etc. That Pats dynasty if you include the entire two decade stretch was hated like an advanced version of the ‘90s Cowboys dynasty, and magnified more because of the internet and more media consumption. Well now we’re six years removed from the last time the Pats won a playoff game, that dynasty being a distant memory, and so while there is still some residual hate by those detractors who remember their dominance, it’s not what it was because they’re no longer a threat. The Chiefs were new and cool and interesting until they’ve started to remind people of those Pats who would always find a way to win and just wouldn’t go away. And with how some of those games have ended, it’s leading to a lot of animosity toward the Chiefs.

I say people have a problem with the way the Chiefs win these close games but it would probably be the same if they were blowing opponents out. That 2007 Pats team got a lot of heat for blowing out opponents early on, and then got heat for squeaking out close wins against the likes of the Ravens and Eagles. So even though they were winning, they couldn’t win either way. We’ve seen this script before and we’re seeing it now.

I do think more people want the Chiefs to lose than want to win, and even though FBG is a small sample size, I think you’ll find that to be the case in other online communities too. Ultimately it doesn’t matter. None of this noise matters. Everyone will have their opinions and theories and what have you but at the end of the day, if you’re lucky enough to see your team compete in a meaningful game, savor it. Let others pray on your team’s downfall, and bask in their tears when it’s unsuccessful. Or if your team does lose, just know that you had zero control over the outcome and be glad they got that far.

Sorry for rambling I meant this to be much shorter. 😅
 
Pretty decent deep dive on playoff penalties here.

Hmmmm

The greater the legend of KC grows over the years, the MORE calls they are getting relative to their opponent. The same things happened with the Pats, although KCs ratio of favourable calls is higher.

And the data looks worse when you filter it down to the more serious calls that are subjective.

The article doesn’t go into much details WHY this is happening, that is where the tinfoil hat people take over 😂
 
Pretty decent deep dive on playoff penalties here.

Hmmmm

The greater the legend of KC grows over the years, the MORE calls they are getting relative to their opponent. The same things happened with the Pats, although KCs ratio of favourable calls is higher.

And the data looks worse when you filter it down to the more serious calls that are subjective.

The article doesn’t go into much details WHY this is happening, that is where the tinfoil hat people take over 😂
Thanks for the article. I mean, the data backs up what we all see with our own eyes. That doesn’t make it a grand conspiracy, and it doesn’t mean that Mahomes sucks. It just is what it is — strong evidence of human bias toward MVP level players.
 
Pretty decent deep dive on playoff penalties here.

Hmmmm

The greater the legend of KC grows over the years, the MORE calls they are getting relative to their opponent. The same things happened with the Pats, although KCs ratio of favourable calls is higher.

And the data looks worse when you filter it down to the more serious calls that are subjective.

The article doesn’t go into much details WHY this is happening, that is where the tinfoil hat people take over 😂
Thanks for the article. I mean, the data backs up what we all see with our own eyes. That doesn’t make it a grand conspiracy, and it doesn’t mean that Mahomes sucks. It just is what it is — strong evidence of human bias toward MVP level players the most famous entertainer on the planet and all her fans, a lot of whom might normally not watch the NFL...
Fixed it
 
Statistically the Chiefs are more like an 11 or 12 win team. Two teams in THEIR OWN DIVISION had a higher point differential. Almost every other playoff team did (Steelers, Texans and Rams didn't, Commanders at 12-5 at only a few points better). Their offensive and defensive rankings are decent, but not good or great. They're a very good team, but not a typical 15-2 great team. They've had a horseshoe up their tookus all year, pulling out one improbable comeback win after another.

KC total offense: 16th (14th pass, 22nd run, 15th points)
KC total Defense: 9th (18th pass, 8th run, 4th points)

These are VERY atypical rankings for a #1 seed, historic even. It is not unfair to call them one of the worst #1 seed in a long long time, if not ever. They DO have one of the NFLs best coaches and one of the NFLs best ever QBs, which is obviously why they're accomplished what they have and certainly gives them a great chance to win at home, but I think the horseshoe falls out today .


Buffalo 34 Chiefs 27
 
Statistically the Chiefs are more like an 11 or 12 win team. Two teams in THEIR OWN DIVISION had a higher point differential. Almost every other playoff team did (Steelers, Texans and Rams didn't, Commanders at 12-5 at only a few points better). Their offensive and defensive rankings are decent, but not good or great. They're a very good team, but not a typical 15-2 great team. They've had a horseshoe up their tookus all year, pulling out one improbable comeback win after another.

KC total offense: 16th (14th pass, 22nd run, 15th points)
KC total Defense: 9th (18th pass, 8th run, 4th points)

These are VERY atypical rankings for a #1 seed, historic even. It is not unfair to call them one of the worst #1 seed in a long long time, if not ever. They DO have one of the NFLs best coaches and one of the NFLs best ever QBs, which is obviously why they're accomplished what they have and certainly gives them a great chance to win at home, but I think the horseshoe falls out today .


Buffalo 34 Chiefs 27
KC had a top 10 defense (and top 5 in points allowed per game), but their defensive rankings were just decent? Okay. :lol:

Not trying to pick on the Lions, but all of those yards and points don't mean squat now since they are sitting at home and not playing today. Winning is what matters, not a bunch of stats. All the Chiefs do is win. I will be rooting for the Bills today, but I expect the Chiefs to win because that is just what they do.
 
Should be a great game but I think the Chiefs run is over.. Close game but give me the Bills..

Buff - 24-20
 
I think it would be really nice if the Bills won this game. That BIG GAME LOSS 4-peat must be torture to have endured all these years.

I am not yet ready to count out the Chiefs. I don't give a crap about how good or bad they are playing, have played, whatever. The one consistently present narrative with this team is that they keep winning games. It seriously does not matter one bit how good or bad they played the first 58 minutes.

KC - 28
BUF - 27
 
I think the attention that has been given to the state of the Chiefs and penalty calls should play to the Bills advantage as the refs get focused on calling it evenly.

Some of the deep dives into the subject that took place were pretty eye opening and, I think, embarassing for the league. Heard them getting discussed on sports radio shows before I saw the articles myself. But it's along the lines of...

Since 2021 in 11 Chiefs playoff games, their opponents have been penalized more 10 times, and with equal numbers once. The Chiefs have had more penalty yards than their opponents 1 out of the 11 games.

While the Chiefs also have edges in the regular season on penalties (go figure) it's not-nearly so one-sided as starts happening in the playoffs. And no other team has anywhere near that kind of playoff edge despite there being plenty of teams with good coaching, a history of playoff appearances so used to the big stage, etc.

Chiefs opponents have been the recipients of 22 roughing the passer/DPI/defensive holding/unnecessary roughness penalties, opponents have had 4 go their way.

Hopefully the refs start calling it even and we see a good clean game today.
 
I think the attention that has been given to the state of the Chiefs and penalty calls should play to the Bills advantage as the refs get focused on calling it evenly.

Some of the deep dives into the subject that took place were pretty eye opening and, I think, embarassing for the league. Heard them getting discussed on sports radio shows before I saw the articles myself. But it's along the lines of...

Since 2021 in 11 Chiefs playoff games, their opponents have been penalized more 10 times, and with equal numbers once. The Chiefs have had more penalty yards than their opponents 1 out of the 11 games.

While the Chiefs also have edges in the regular season on penalties (go figure) it's not-nearly so one-sided as starts happening in the playoffs. And no other team has anywhere near that kind of playoff edge despite there being plenty of teams with good coaching, a history of playoff appearances so used to the big stage, etc.

Chiefs opponents have been the recipients of 22 roughing the passer/DPI/defensive holding/unnecessary roughness penalties, opponents have had 4 go their way.

Hopefully the refs start calling it even and we see a good clean game today.
Did it ever occur to you that maybe the Chiefs are just better disciplined than their opponents? Bill Belichick was known for his teams usually being buttoned up for playoff games, and the same applies to Andy Reid as well. This idea that both teams need to be penalized equally defies common sense.
 
Homer assessment.

How the Bills can win
- dominating on the ground
- continue playing mistake free
- pressure the patchwork KC Oline

How KC can win
- target the Bills backups on D (safety and possibly CB1 😢)
- stop the run and make the Bills throw it downfield, which they can do but these plays have way more variance
- win on special teams

In the end:
I see the Chiefs getting better coaching, winning special teams and getting more breaks on the calls than the Bills. I see them pulling out a close victory.

Best bet for me is Noah Gray on targets, yards and a TD as a longer odds play.

On the Bills side, success in the running game (Cook and Davis yards).

Long long long shot - Ty Johnson most receiving yards at +9000
 
Statistically the Chiefs are more like an 11 or 12 win team. Two teams in THEIR OWN DIVISION had a higher point differential. Almost every other playoff team did (Steelers, Texans and Rams didn't, Commanders at 12-5 at only a few points better). Their offensive and defensive rankings are decent, but not good or great. They're a very good team, but not a typical 15-2 great team. They've had a horseshoe up their tookus all year, pulling out one improbable comeback win after another.

KC total offense: 16th (14th pass, 22nd run, 15th points)
KC total Defense: 9th (18th pass, 8th run, 4th points)

These are VERY atypical rankings for a #1 seed, historic even. It is not unfair to call them one of the worst #1 seed in a long long time, if not ever. They DO have one of the NFLs best coaches and one of the NFLs best ever QBs, which is obviously why they're accomplished what they have and certainly gives them a great chance to win at home, but I think the horseshoe falls out today .


Buffalo 34 Chiefs 27
KC had a top 10 defense (and top 5 in points allowed per game), but their defensive rankings were just decent? Okay. :lol:

Not trying to pick on the Lions, but all of those yards and points don't mean squat now since they are sitting at home and not playing today. Winning is what matters, not a bunch of stats. All the Chiefs do is win. I will be rooting for the Bills today, but I expect the Chiefs to win because that is just what they do.
And here's the problem when I point out their stats....they AREN'T bad stats, they just AREN'T typical of a top seed. And folks act like they're the consensus no brainer best in the league....statistically that just doesn't bear out. One can say they're a very good team and still say they're over-rated.
 
I think the attention that has been given to the state of the Chiefs and penalty calls should play to the Bills advantage as the refs get focused on calling it evenly.

Some of the deep dives into the subject that took place were pretty eye opening and, I think, embarassing for the league. Heard them getting discussed on sports radio shows before I saw the articles myself. But it's along the lines of...

Since 2021 in 11 Chiefs playoff games, their opponents have been penalized more 10 times, and with equal numbers once. The Chiefs have had more penalty yards than their opponents 1 out of the 11 games.

While the Chiefs also have edges in the regular season on penalties (go figure) it's not-nearly so one-sided as starts happening in the playoffs. And no other team has anywhere near that kind of playoff edge despite there being plenty of teams with good coaching, a history of playoff appearances so used to the big stage, etc.

Chiefs opponents have been the recipients of 22 roughing the passer/DPI/defensive holding/unnecessary roughness penalties, opponents have had 4 go their way.

Hopefully the refs start calling it even and we see a good clean game today.
Did it ever occur to you that maybe the Chiefs are just better disciplined than their opponents? Bill Belichick was known for his teams usually being buttoned up for playoff games, and the same applies to Andy Reid as well. This idea that both teams need to be penalized equally defies common sense.

If you read the post they already looked at such things to test exactly that kind of argument:

While the Chiefs also have edges in the regular season on penalties (go figure) it's not-nearly so one-sided as starts happening in the playoffs. And no other team has anywhere near that kind of playoff edge despite there being plenty of teams with good coaching, a history of playoff appearances so used to the big stage, etc.
 
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Count the number of times #74 for the Chiefs either lines up a yard and a half off the LOS, or false starts, or both. Then count the number of penalties he gets, then get back to me.
 
Statistically the Chiefs are more like an 11 or 12 win team. Two teams in THEIR OWN DIVISION had a higher point differential. Almost every other playoff team did (Steelers, Texans and Rams didn't, Commanders at 12-5 at only a few points better). Their offensive and defensive rankings are decent, but not good or great. They're a very good team, but not a typical 15-2 great team. They've had a horseshoe up their tookus all year, pulling out one improbable comeback win after another.

KC total offense: 16th (14th pass, 22nd run, 15th points)
KC total Defense: 9th (18th pass, 8th run, 4th points)

These are VERY atypical rankings for a #1 seed, historic even. It is not unfair to call them one of the worst #1 seed in a long long time, if not ever. They DO have one of the NFLs best coaches and one of the NFLs best ever QBs, which is obviously why they're accomplished what they have and certainly gives them a great chance to win at home, but I think the horseshoe falls out today .


Buffalo 34 Chiefs 27
KC had a top 10 defense (and top 5 in points allowed per game), but their defensive rankings were just decent? Okay. :lol:

Not trying to pick on the Lions, but all of those yards and points don't mean squat now since they are sitting at home and not playing today. Winning is what matters, not a bunch of stats. All the Chiefs do is win. I will be rooting for the Bills today, but I expect the Chiefs to win because that is just what they do.
And here's the problem when I point out their stats....they AREN'T bad stats, they just AREN'T typical of a top seed. And folks act like they're the consensus no brainer best in the league....statistically that just doesn't bear out. One can say they're a very good team and still say they're over-rated.
The most important stat is winning, and they are 17-1 this season in games that have mattered to them (Week 18 L to Denver did not). When you win the most, you are the best. It won't ultimately matter if they lose today, but as of now, they are the best team unless Buffalo beats them today or Philly or Washington does in two weeks.
 

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