AFCCG: Steelers at Patriots Discussion (1 Viewer)

[NE_REVIVAL]

Football outsiders has PIT as 7th best (7.7% better than average) and the patriots are 11th best (6.0% better than average). Both defenses are excellent. This is weighted DVOA which gives more weight to games later in the season and counts earlier games less. 

 

Good stats, anyone have RZ off and RZ def stats? Particularly for 2nd half of yr?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

True that the Patriots haven't faced any great QBs (not that the Steelers have for that matter)

Steelers faced Brady.....

 

[Anarchy99]

Steelers faced Brady.....

How did that turn out?

 

[fred_1_15301]

Good stats, anyone have RZ off and RZ def stats? Particularly for 2nd half of yr?

Over the entire season, Steelers D is 5th and Patriots are 8th in red zone efficiency.  Offensively, Patriots are 8th and Steelers are 14th.  Not sure how to get 2nd half statistics for that.   

 

[Evilgrin 72]

How did that turn out?

Never mind, I just realized I Hippled the hell out of this post. 

But, it turned out better than I'd hoped, to be honest.  Landry Jones vs. Brady - I expected a shellacking.  Steelers ended up outgaining NE and winning the TOP battle in that game.  Of course, in the W/L column, that means about as much as having cooler uniforms, but nevertheless, it's promising. I like their chances better with Ben on the road than I do Landry at home.  Jones is a league-average backup at BEST.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Stat I saw on NFL.com -- Bell has 1173 rushing yards in his last 8 games played. 

He got almost 1900 combined yards in 12 games this season.  Without a suspension and sitting for rest week 16, that projects (I know, I know) to 2516 yards over 16 games.  

Chris Johnson has the NFL record with 2506 combined yards.  (2009)

and Marshall Faulk had 2429 in 1999.

Bell is pretty good.  

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He got almost 1900 combined yards in 12 games this season.  Without a suspension and sitting for rest week 16, that projects (I know, I know) to 2516 yards over 16 games.  

He's pretty good.  

Indeed. I find the total YFS less of a surprise that the fact that he was pacing to destroy Dickerson's rushing record for some reason. IMO as good as he is (and he's the best all around RB in the NFL IMO), a ton of credit needs to go to the offensive line. So nice to have real strength there, finally.

 

[Bayhawks]

I don't get the arrogance of some steeler fans discrediting ne and their opponents. Who exatcly has pitt played that is so great? I don't have time at the moment to look it up (at work) but I wouldn't be surprised if ne played more top 10 pass Ds than pitt did. yes I am concerned that ne didn't play a strong sched, but neither did pitt so not sure why pitt fans would bring it up. Who are the big time QBs pitt rolled over all year.

Sea? You want to go back 2 months, ok, if we go back 2 months I believe the vaunted steelers were in the midst of losing 4 in a row. Get serious, neither of these teams are the same as they were a couple months ago.

Not a good patriots def, ok pal, but i think most not wearing blackngold glasses would agree their def is every bit as good as Pitts and likely better. Im sure of it.

I do think it is deja vu all over again, pitt team and their fans whenever they face NE, pitt comes in all full of bravado thinking they will intimidate and be physical as if ne isn't going to be. Then pitt gets their rear ends handed to them. I love it, the steelers don't need their "A" game? Bawhahahaha. Keep it up....... If you don't think NE has a good def but pitt does u r in for a rude awakening.

Steelers don't need their "A" game; if NE only has their "C-" game. 

If both teams have their "A" games, I give the edge to NE (70% or so).

If Pitt has their "A" game and NE has their "B" game, I'd call it 50-50.

I don't think Pitt has a good D, but I'm not sure NE does either. 

Again, NE hasn't played any great QBs this year (or played great QBs that were having down years).  With NE's "D" being looked at as an advantage for them, that's questionable to me.  Perhaps NE's "D" will shut down the Pitt offense this weekend.  That will be a legitimate offense to shut down, and would provide support for the idea that NE's defense is great.

 

[shadyridr]

My unbiased opinion... Ben sucks on the road. I cant see how they can possibly win in NE. They are lucky they went against KC's inept offense.

 

[fred_1_15301]

After watching the KC/Pittsburgh game again last night (sober this time), I don't think Ben had an awful game.  During the actual game thread, I said he was playing terrible.  He missed on a few throws but his receivers also dropped a few that they normally catch.  He also drove the team down the field consistently but just couldn't punch it in.  He certainly has to play better to beat New England but he wasn't atrocious.  

 

[belljr]

Won't be surprised by any outcome this game.

I think either Team could blow the other out.

It could be a defensive battle.

Last possession

 

[[icon]]

Steelers don't need their "A" game; if NE only has their "C-" game. 

If both teams have their "A" games, I give the edge to NE (70% or so).

If Pitt has their "A" game and NE has their "B" game, I'd call it 50-50.

I don't think Pitt has a good D, but I'm not sure NE does either. 

Again, NE hasn't played any great QBs this year (or played great QBs that were having down years).  With NE's "D" being looked at as an advantage for them, that's questionable to me.  Perhaps NE's "D" will shut down the Pitt offense this weekend.  That will be a legitimate offense to shut down, and would provide support for the idea that NE's defense is great.

at the arbitrary mathematical gymnastics in black. . 

Regarding the blue, you probably should have read some of the posts upthread before posting... and it's pretty clear you didn't. 

 

[Godsbrother]

My unbiased opinion... Ben sucks on the road. I cant see how they can possibly win in NE. They are lucky they went against KC's inept offense.

Yep, cancel the game no chance.  But yet Ben has had some really good road playoff games.   Maybe the Steelers should show up and see what happens.

 

[Godsbrother]

After watching the KC/Pittsburgh game again last night (sober this time), I don't think Ben had an awful game.  During the actual game thread, I said he was playing terrible.  He missed on a few throws but his receivers also dropped a few that they normally catch.  He also drove the team down the field consistently but just couldn't punch it in.  He certainly has to play better to beat New England but he wasn't atrocious.  

He had a couple TD passes that were dropped.  Big difference if those are caught.

 

[[icon]]

Since we're looking at Football Outsiders DVOA, I figured we could look at their offensive efficiency ratings, which are also weighted with more recent games counting more:

NE: #1 in offensive efficiency (25.0% Better than average)
ATL: #2 (24.8%)
GB: #4 (20.3%) 

PIT: #8 (12.9%) 
 

 

[Bayhawks]

at the arbitrary mathematical gymnastics in black. . 

Regarding the blue, you probably should have read some of the posts upthread before posting... and it's pretty clear you didn't. 

WTF are you talking about?

You seriously think if Brady comes out and throws 3 picks, Roethlisberger only throws for 240/1, but Bell goes for 130/1, that the Steelers can't win?

My point is that NE is favored, IMO, rightly so.  But being favored doesn't make it a lock.  If NE ####s the bed, Pitt doesn't have to be perfect (an "A" game) to win.  

That's not arbitrary math gymnastics.  If both teams play great, I give NE the edge.  If Pitt plays great & NE does average, I'd call it a 50-50 game. 

Af far as the blue, I don't need to read some of the posts (although I read every one).  My opinion, that I posted, has nothing to do with those post; it is based on two specific facts. 

1-NE hasn't faced many great QBs this year, and the few they have faced had down years.  That's an undeniable fact. 

2-NE has had a great defense this year, also a fact, the stats bear it out. 

When I account for both those facts, that causes my opinion of NE's defense to be unfinished.  For me to view them as great, I'd have to see them be great against a great offense, which they could do against a legitimately great Pittsburgh offense this weekend.

I wasn't talking #### about your precious Pats; I was just posting in a thread about the AFCCG.  Just because someone doesn't bow their head every time they mention the words Pats, Brady, or Belicheck, DOES NOT mean they are trashing your team.

 

[fred_1_15301]

He had a couple TD passes that were dropped.  Big difference if those are caught.

The drop by Brown was a pretty good play by the defender but one that Brown usually holds onto.  The Rodgers drop was also a difficult play but Ben put the ball in the right spot (slightly behind Rodgers).  He missed badly on a throw to Brown earlier in the game (which may have just been a miscommunication).  And of course the poor decision on the interception.  Other than that, he really wasn't too bad.  

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Steelers don't need their "A" game; if NE only has their "C-" game. 

If both teams have their "A" games, I give the edge to NE (70% or so).

If Pitt has their "A" game and NE has their "B" game, I'd call it 50-50.

I don't think Pitt has a good D, but I'm not sure NE does either. 

Again, NE hasn't played any great QBs this year (or played great QBs that were having down years).  With NE's "D" being looked at as an advantage for them, that's questionable to me.  Perhaps NE's "D" will shut down the Pitt offense this weekend.  That will be a legitimate offense to shut down, and would provide support for the idea that NE's defense is great.

The poster sugessted that Pitt was sooo good they didn't even need their "A" game and thats pretty silly. I feel Pitt AND NE both need to bring their "A" games or they go home losers.

I never said NEs def was great, but did take issue with the poster claiming they "aren't good. I don't know what the steelers have done to justify the claim they have a better def? I think the 2 defs are probably pretty close, but imho NEs will prove to be better before its all said and done. Perhaps Pitts def will shut down the NE offense and if they do they will be doing something they have rarely done before against a brady led offense and they will make a believer out of me.

 

[[icon]]

WTF are you talking about?

You seriously think if Brady comes out and throws 3 picks, Roethlisberger only throws for 240/1, but Bell goes for 130/1, that the Steelers can't win?

My point is that NE is favored, IMO, rightly so.  But being favored doesn't make it a lock.  If NE ####s the bed, Pitt doesn't have to be perfect (an "A" game) to win.  

That's not arbitrary math gymnastics.  If both teams play great, I give NE the edge.  If Pitt plays great & NE does average, I'd call it a 50-50 game. 

Af far as the blue, I don't need to read some of the posts (although I read every one).  My opinion, that I posted, has nothing to do with those post; it is based on two specific facts. 

1-NE hasn't faced many great QBs this year, and the few they have faced had down years.  That's an undeniable fact. 

2-NE has had a great defense this year, also a fact, the stats bear it out. 

When I account for both those facts, that causes my opinion of NE's defense to be unfinished.  For me to view them as great, I'd have to see them be great against a great offense, which they could do against a legitimately great Pittsburgh offense this weekend.

I wasn't talking #### about your precious Pats; I was just posting in a thread about the AFCCG.  Just because someone doesn't bow their head every time they mention the words Pats, Brady, or Belicheck, DOES NOT mean they are trashing your team.

Annnnnd it's clear you STILL haven't read the posts upthread on this topic.... but feel free to avoid reading in favor of typing. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Never mind, I just realized I Hippled the hell out of this post. 

But, it turned out better than I'd hoped, to be honest.  Landry Jones vs. Brady - I expected a shellacking.  Steelers ended up outgaining NE and winning the TOP battle in that game.  Of course, in the W/L column, that means about as much as having cooler uniforms, but nevertheless, it's promising. I like their chances better with Ben on the road than I do Landry at home.  Jones is a league-average backup at BEST.

Pats went very vanilla in that game and used a heavy dose of Blount if I remember correctly.  Probably , but it did feel like the Pats weren't showing Pitts much, assuming the % of them meeting in the playoffs yet again were decent.  Not sure this game will turn out that way.  Like somebody said, this could be Brady passing 50 times while they use a 2RB formation with White and Lewis teaming up with Edelman catching the quick stuff all day. 

 

[fred_1_15301]

The poster sugessted that Pitt was sooo good they didn't even need their "A" game and thats pretty silly. I feel Pitt AND NE both need to bring their "A" games or they go home losers.

I never said NEs def was great, but did take issue with the poster claiming they "aren't good. I don't know what the steelers have done to justify the claim they have a better def? I think the 2 defs are probably pretty close, but imho NEs will prove to be better before its all said and done. Perhaps Pitts def will shut down the NE offense and if they do they will be doing something they have rarely done before against a brady led offense and they will make a believer out of me.

But essentially he's right isn't he?  You could make this same claim before any game.  If the Cleveland Browns bring their B game and the Patriots bring their F game, the Browns would likely win.  I don't even think he was implying that Pittsburgh was that good.  Just that they could win without bringing their best if the Patriots #### the bed.  Not sure I understand why any of that is relevant though because it's pretty obvious.  

 

[[icon]]

WTF are you talking about?

You seriously think if Brady comes out and throws 3 picks, Roethlisberger only throws for 240/1, but Bell goes for 130/1, that the Steelers can't win?

Brady has never thrown an INT vs PIT in Foxboro. He's 4-0 with a 131.8 passer rating and a 15-0 TD/INT ratio. Yet you assume brady throws 3 this Sunday? Okay.   

Ben has historically played horribly in Foxboro, throwing 8TDs to 4INT in 4 games, yet you assume he plays near flawlessly? Sure.

You project Bell to run for 130/1 against 4th best Rush Defense when he has averaged 78yds and has never scored vs NE? Why not. 

I'll add that while Ben threw for 400 and 351 yards in his last two meetings in Foxboro, the Steelers lost both games by an average of 18 points. 

My point is that NE is favored, IMO, rightly so.  But being favored doesn't make it a lock.  If NE ####s the bed, Pitt doesn't have to be perfect (an "A" game) to win.  

Link to ANYONE saying this game is a lock, Mr Strawman?  If you had read upthread, I've got a considerable bet on PIT +6

That's not arbitrary math gymnastics.  If both teams play great, I give NE the edge.  If Pitt plays great & NE does average, I'd call it a 50-50 game.

Yes it is. Pulling random numbers out of your ### trying to prove a point is EXACTLY that. 

Af far as the blue, I don't need to read some of the posts (although I read every one).  My opinion, that I posted, has nothing to do with those post; it is based on two specific facts. 

1-NE hasn't faced many great QBs this year, and the few they have faced had down years.  That's an undeniable fact. 

If you read the posts above, you'd realize that nobody is denying that NE hasn't faced elite QB's... but it was mentioned that neither has PIT. 

2-NE has had a great defense this year, also a fact, the stats bear it out. 

I'm not sure I would call NE's Defense "Great" but if you had read the posts above You'd see they are the 11th best and 6.0% better than average. 

When I account for both those facts, that causes my opinion of NE's defense to be unfinished.  For me to view them as great, I'd have to see them be great against a great offense, which they could do against a legitimately great Pittsburgh offense this weekend.

If you read upthread, nobody is saying NE's defense is "great". They are very good at 11th best, a couple notches below PIT's 7th best (7.6% better than average) unit.... as stated above, if you had read it. 

I wasn't talking #### about your precious Pats; I was just posting in a thread about the AFCCG.  Just because someone doesn't bow their head every time they mention the words Pats, Brady, or Belicheck, DOES NOT mean they are trashing your team.

This is a cute tantrum, however it's not even remotely grounded in reality.  We're trying to talk statistics and relevant data here. Stomping your feet and throwing out "your precious patriots" crap is bush league. Please elevate your posting level and contribute in a meaningful and relevant way to the thread. TIA. 

Here ya go... 

 

[Stillers Jr.]

Just popped in to see if ICON was stirring the pot...not disappointed.

YOU GO BOOOOY!

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

But essentially he's right isn't he?  You could make this same claim before any game.  If the Cleveland Browns bring their B game and the Patriots bring their F game, the Browns would likely win.  I don't even think he was implying that Pittsburgh was that good.  Just that they could win without bringing their best if the Patriots #### the bed.  Not sure I understand why any of that is relevant though because it's pretty obvious.  

Huh? What r u talking about?

This is what he said:

But it is to say that the Steelers offense with a healthy Ben, Bell, and Brown (and potentially Green) will pose about 1,000 times more of an issue for the Patriots defense than anyone they faced this year, and often in the past the Steelers have faced the Patriots at less than full strength in key games.

The Steelers don't need to have their "A" game to win

Sorry no, he is the opposite of right. He didn't qualify the statement with "if pats fumble 5 times or bring their D game etc, etc" so lets not pretend he did. He thinks the Pitt offense is so good (a 1000 times harder than ne has ever seen). clearly he implied that heck they don't even need their "A" game he didn't say anything about if this or that happens.

Yes if ne plays terrible then duh he might be right, but why would anyone assume ne will play terribly? Yes if aliens land during the game and transport the ne players up into space then Pitt won't need their "A" game. Absent that they better bring it if they expect to win. Do u really want to hitch ur wagon to the post i was replying to?

Yes ne could fumble 3 or 4 times etc, but can't we stick to what is likely to happen (reality) rather than an endless list of things that could potentially happen?

 

[[icon]]

Just popped in to see if ICON was stirring the pot...not disappointed.

YOU GO BOOOOY!

Breaking down games leading up to big matchups is one of my fave things about the pool. Anarchy99 is the one dropping real knowledge in here, but I'm trying to keep it fun, too. 

 

[Bossman]

I like that both teams in the AFC Championship were caught with underinflated footballs.

It's a copy-cat league.

 

[Anarchy99]

I did my own basic offensive / defensive breakdown to have a better comparison. Here is the methodology. If TEAM A scored 30 points against TEAM B, and TEAM B allowed an average of 20 ppg in all their other games, TEAM A got a "+10 points" for their offense output in that game. Rinse and repeat for all games for both PIT and NE (for both offense and defense).

The Patriots offense on a per game basis scored +5.4 ppg versus the expected number of points . So to explain it again, if the Ravens allowed an average of 21.6 points to everyone else, NE would have scored 27 points.

The Patriots defense on a per game basis allowed -5.4 ppg versus the expected number of points. If the Bengals averaged 19.4 ppg against everyone else, the Patriots would allow 14.

It was just a coincidence that the offensive and defensive numbers were the same. So over the course of their 17 games, the Patriots adjusted number above their expected results if they were an average team was +10.8 ppg.

Looking at Pittsburgh, their offense scored at a +3.0 points clip compared to the average points allowed average. Again it's just a fluke coincidence, but the PIT defense allowed 3.0 fewer ppg. So their adjusted or normalized per game total game to +6.0 ppg.

Bottom line, the Patriots collectively were +4.8 ppg better than their expected PF and PA totals.

Before people go half cocked and start flipping over cars, that has nothing to do with which QBs NE played, how many nice runs LB had for PIT, who has a better OL, and who played or didn't play in a particular game. If people still didn't grasp everything . . .

TEAM A (who allowed 20 ppg and scored 20 ppg against their other teams).

NE vs. TEAM A: Offense 20 + 5.4 = 25.4 points. NE defense 20 - 5.4 = 14.6 points
PIT vs. TEAM A: Offense 20 + 3.0 = 23.0 points. PIT defense 20 - 3.0 = 17 points

Using real numbers . . .

PIT OFF: 24.8 ppg scored + -5.4 adjusted NE points allowed = 19.4 points
NE DEF: 15.6 ppg allowed + 3.0 adjusted PIT points scored = 18.6 points

Average of the two . . . the Steelers score 19 points.

NE OFF: 27.6 ppg scored + -3.0 adjusted PIT points allowed = 24.6 points
PIT DEF: 20.4 ppg allowed + +5.4 adjusted NE points scored = 25.8 points

Average of the two . . . the Patriots score 25.2 points

So if the math truly held up, the line would have been:

Playing in PIT, NE -3
Playing on a neutral field, NE -6
Playing in NE, NE -9

Vegas has the game pegged at 28.5-22.5 New England. Based on my numbers, thetotal for NE is almost exactly the same (28.5 for Vegas vs. 28.2 using my math). Vegas thinks the Steelers will score an extra FG vs. my numbers (22.5 predicted by Vegas vs. 19 points).

Still doesn't change that none of that will impact the final score as determined on the field on Sunday night. And no one is saying the Steelers can't win. 

 

[Anarchy99]

It's a copy-cat league.

Brady and Ben: getting their balls deflated for years, legally or illegally.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The chances of the Patriots just coming out and laying an egg (their "F game") are so small that it's not even worth discussing. Particularly after coming out relatively flat last week, BB is going to have them ready to play. The Steelers are going to have to force the issue to get them off of their game IMO, and to do that they'll need a combination of early inside pressure against Brady and execution on offense to put the defense on its heels a bit. Tall order, but do-able IMO -- I think that the line is about right.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Huh? What r u talking about?

This is what he said:

But it is to say that the Steelers offense with a healthy Ben, Bell, and Brown (and potentially Green) will pose about 1,000 times more of an issue for the Patriots defense than anyone they faced this year, and often in the past the Steelers have faced the Patriots at less than full strength in key games.

The Steelers don't need to have their "A" game to win

Sorry no, he is the opposite of right. He didn't qualify the statement with "if pats fumble 5 times or bring their D game etc, etc" so lets not pretend he did. He thinks the Pitt offense is so good (a 1000 times harder than ne has ever seen) heck they don't even need their "A" game, thats what he wrote. Im not going down the if they play their F, D, C game then duh he might b right or if there is a lunar eclipse blah blah, rat hole. Yes if aliens land during the game and transport the ne players up into space then Pitt won't need their "A" game. Absent that they better bring it if they expect to win. U really want to hitch ur wagon to the post i was replying to?

Yes ne could fumble 3 or 4 times etc, but can't we stick to what is likely to happen (reality) rather than an endless list of things that could potentially happen?

Well I interpreted his post differently than you did mainly because he clarified what he meant in a later post.  He specifically says " Steelers don't need their "A" game; if NE only has their "C-" game. " and " If both teams have their "A" games, I give the edge to NE (70% or so)".  

ETA - I wasn't trying to say that his post had any merit to it.  Just trying to clarify what he meant.  

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Well I interpreted his post differently than you did mainly because he clarified what he meant in a later post.  He specifically says " Steelers don't need their "A" game; if NE only has their "C-" game. " and " If both teams have their "A" games, I give the edge to NE (70% or so)".  

ETA - I wasn't trying to say that his post had any merit to it.  Just trying to clarify what he meant.  

Ok, good enuf, i didn't see his follow up and I think we wasted enuf bits n bytes on this one. 

 

[Steelers4Life]

I don't get the arrogance of some steeler fans discrediting ne and their opponents. Who exatcly has pitt played that is so great? I don't have time at the moment to look it up (at work) but I wouldn't be surprised if ne played more top 10 pass Ds than pitt did. yes I am concerned that ne didn't play a strong sched, but neither did pitt so not sure why pitt fans would bring it up. Who are the big time QBs pitt rolled over all year.

Sea? You want to go back 2 months, ok, if we go back 2 months I believe the vaunted steelers were in the midst of losing 4 in a row. Get serious, neither of these teams are the same as they were a couple months ago.

Not a good patriots def, ok pal, but i think most not wearing blackngold glasses would agree their def is every bit as good as Pitts and likely better. Im sure of it.

I do think it is deja vu all over again, pitt team and their fans whenever they face NE, pitt comes in all full of bravado thinking they will intimidate and be physical as if ne isn't going to be. Then pitt gets their rear ends handed to them. I love it, the steelers don't need their "A" game? Bawhahahaha. Keep it up....... If you don't think NE has a good def but pitt does u r in for a rude awakening.

Arrogance?  Quite the opposite.  You apparently read what you want to read.  No, the Steelers don't need their A game to win, they just need to play better than however the Patriots play, and HOUSTON hung with them for most of the game last week.

I listen to all of these stupid statistics about the Patriots and their offense and defense from 2016, when those statistics (especially defensive ones) are more of a product of facing a god awful schedule of terrible QBs than anything that will have anything to do with their ability to face the Steelers offense this Sunday.  It's been rare that the Steelers enter a Patriots game fully healthy.  This time that's not the case, and it'll be fun to see.  Earlier this year, Bell had a really nice game and Brown went over 100 yards with Landry Jones under center... we'll see how Ben can do I guess.

I never said the Steelers defense is better than the Pats defense.  I never said the Steelers offense is better than the Pats offense, either.  I think both teams' offenses have very distinct advantages over the other teams' defenses but I'm not really sure which advantage is bigger.  I think the only area that there's any clear advantage is with coaching on the Patriots side, because I have little faith that a Tomlin-coached team will be able to make in-game adjustments needed to win like the Patriots can and will.   

What I did say is that no statistics from the regular season mean diddly poo when the Patriots faced a schedule like that.  Shutting down those QBs isn't going to help them in a matchup like this.  It's not like the Steelers faced a gauntlet of stud QBs either, but I'm not touting the Steelers defense as anything special.  They're going to need to play the Patriots offense differently than they have or they'll get picked apart again.  The difference between this matchup and other previous ones is that the Steelers' offense is healthy and can score right with them. 

 

[Bad_Mo]

It's a copy-cat league.

True.

 

[Bossman]

Since we're looking at Football Outsiders DVOA, I figured we could look at their offensive efficiency ratings, which are also weighted with more recent games counting more:

NE: #1 in offensive efficiency (25.0% Better than average)
ATL: #2 (24.8%)
GB: #4 (20.3%) 

PIT: #8 (12.9%) 
 

Are these ratings from the games played last weekend? (8 teams)

I assume that since PIT was unable to score a TD, they came in just a tick below HOU in the offensive efficiency ratings.

 

[[icon]]

Are these ratings from the games played last weekend? (8 teams)

I assume that since PIT was unable to score a TD, they came in just a tick below HOU in the offensive efficiency ratings.

From the link

 

[steelers1080]

The Steelers have never played the Pats with Ben, Bell, Brown, and Pouncey all at the same time. Not sure if this will be the difference maker, but it's a pretty big deal when your Allstar QB, RB, or Center are missing. 

Also, usually the difference in the NE vs Pitt match-ups come down to turnovers. If the Steelers can play a clean game then they have a good shot.

That said, I see Ben making a poor throw (probably high) that ends up being a back-breaking INT.

 

[Bayhawks]

(1)The poster sugessted that Pitt was sooo good they didn't even need their "A" game and thats pretty silly. (2) I feel Pitt AND NE both need to bring their "A" games or they go home losers.

(3) I never said NEs def was great, but did take issue with the poster claiming they "aren't good. I don't know what the steelers have done to justify the claim they have a better def? I think the 2 defs are probably pretty close, but imho NEs will prove to be better before its all said and done. Perhaps Pitts def will shut down the NE offense and if they do they will be doing something they have rarely done before against a brady led offense and they will make a believer out of me.

(1) I wasn't that poster, & I didn't suggest that in my earlier post.

(2) IMO, it depends.  Similar to how NE didn't have their A game last week & lost, they are talented enough to win without their A game.  That being said, Pitt is MUCH better than Houston, so if NE plays a below-average game and Pitt plays great, it would be hard (IMO) for NE to win.  But if NE plays less than their A game, AND Pitt plays less than their A game, I could still see NE winning.

(3) Again, I'll say that NE's defense might be great, but I'm not going to say that based on them shutting down bad QBs/offenses or QBs that have had bad years.  If they shut down a great offense like Pittsburgh, that's support for that claim.  At worst, they have a good defense.  I don't see any way one could make a reasonable argument that NE's defense is bad, or that Pittsburgh's defense is better (unless we are just looking at the last handful of games or something, and even then, I don't know if that argument is valid)

 

[Bayhawks]

Annnnnd it's clear you STILL haven't read the posts upthread on this topic.... but feel free to avoid reading in favor of typing. 

Annnnnnd it's clear you STILL haven't read my posts, which aren't related to the upthread posts.....but feel free to avoid reading in favor of spouting pointless, useless drivel.

 

[[icon]]

The Steelers have never played the Pats with Ben, Bell, Brown, and Pouncey all at the same time. Not sure if this will be the difference maker, but it's a pretty big deal when your Allstar QB, RB, or Center are missing. 

Also, usually the difference in the NE vs Pitt match-ups come down to turnovers. If the Steelers can play a clean game then they have a good shot.

That said, I see Ben making a poor throw (probably high) that ends up being a back-breaking INT.

No doubt... if PIT wins the turnover battle by 2 or better, I think they win. Not saying that's the only way they win... just that I see that being tough to overcome for NE. 

 

[[icon]]

Annnnnnd it's clear you STILL haven't read my posts, which aren't related to the upthread posts.....but feel free to avoid reading in favor of spouting pointless, useless drivel.

You sure about that guy? Here let me point out where I addressed your post, line by line, with hard facts & data. Feel free to refute any of it with facts/data of your own. I'll hang up and listen. 

HTH  

 

[Bayhawks]

Here ya go... 

Are you dense? 

1) I didn't say Brady was going to throw 3 INTs, nor did I say Ben was going to play flawlessly (seriously, 240/1 is flawlessly), nor did I say Bell was going to get 130/1 (which would be below his season average, his post-season average, and his average over the last 8 games)  I didn't assume Brady was going to throw 3 INTs, I didn't assume Roethlisberger & Bell were going to put up those numbers, I said if they did all put up those stats, Pitt could win.  These weren't predictions, they were hypothetical scenarios.  You go on to call me a strawman, but that's exactly what you are doing here, arguing against a position that I never put forth.  Good God, pal.

2) Link to me claiming that anyone said this game was a lock, guy?  Calling me a strawman because I make a statement, that was my opinion, and in no way suggested that it was an argument made by another poster?   Good God.  And no one gives a crap about your bet; I sure as hell didn't post anything about it.

3) No it isn't, it's my opinion (which was clearly stated).  An opinion that happens to be similar to what upthread posts say analytic sites are offering, buddy.

4) If YOU had read upthread, you'd know that I've made this point several times.  I'm not arguing that Pitt's defense was an edge in this matchup.  If I (or anyone else) was/is, I'd make the same comments.  They've faced (other than Brady) not great QBs/offenses (although one could make an argument for Dallas' O, if not Dak), and if someone wanted to claim that Pitt's D was great, I'd post a similar response.  But that's not the case, except for random, isolated posters.  Try to keep up, friend.

 

[Bayhawks]

I did my own basic offensive / defensive breakdown to have a better comparison. Here is the methodology. If TEAM A scored 30 points against TEAM B, and TEAM B allowed an average of 20 ppg in all their other games, TEAM A got a "+10 points" for their offense output in that game. Rinse and repeat for all games for both PIT and NE (for both offense and defense).

The Patriots offense on a per game basis scored +5.4 ppg versus the expected number of points . So to explain it again, if the Ravens allowed an average of 21.6 points to everyone else, NE would have scored 27 points.

The Patriots defense on a per game basis allowed -5.4 ppg versus the expected number of points. If the Bengals averaged 19.4 ppg against everyone else, the Patriots would allow 14.

It was just a coincidence that the offensive and defensive numbers were the same. So over the course of their 17 games, the Patriots adjusted number above their expected results if they were an average team was +10.8 ppg.

Looking at Pittsburgh, their offense scored at a +3.0 points clip compared to the average points allowed average. Again it's just a fluke coincidence, but the PIT defense allowed 3.0 fewer ppg. So their adjusted or normalized per game total game to +6.0 ppg.

Bottom line, the Patriots collectively were +4.8 ppg better than their expected PF and PA totals.

Before people go half cocked and start flipping over cars, that has nothing to do with which QBs NE played, how many nice runs LB had for PIT, who has a better OL, and who played or didn't play in a particular game. If people still didn't grasp everything . . .

TEAM A (who allowed 20 ppg and scored 20 ppg against their other teams).

NE vs. TEAM A: Offense 20 + 5.4 = 25.4 points. NE defense 20 - 5.4 = 14.6 points
PIT vs. TEAM A: Offense 20 + 3.0 = 23.0 points. PIT defense 20 - 3.0 = 17 points

Using real numbers . . .

PIT OFF: 24.8 ppg scored + -5.4 adjusted NE points allowed = 19.4 points
NE DEF: 15.6 ppg allowed + 3.0 adjusted PIT points scored = 18.6 points

Average of the two . . . the Steelers score 19 points.

NE OFF: 27.6 ppg scored + -3.0 adjusted PIT points allowed = 24.6 points
PIT DEF: 20.4 ppg allowed + +5.4 adjusted NE points scored = 25.8 points

Average of the two . . . the Patriots score 25.2 points

So if the math truly held up, the line would have been:

Playing in PIT, NE -3
Playing on a neutral field, NE -6
Playing in NE, NE -9

Vegas has the game pegged at 28.5-22.5 New England. Based on my numbers, thetotal for NE is almost exactly the same (28.5 for Vegas vs. 28.2 using my math). Vegas thinks the Steelers will score an extra FG vs. my numbers (22.5 predicted by Vegas vs. 19 points).

Still doesn't change that none of that will impact the final score as determined on the field on Sunday night. And no one is saying the Steelers can't win. 

Good info here.

 

[[icon]]

Sooooo you actually use a ton of words to say that you actually have no factual basis behind anything you've said.... and any numbers you DID post were just random hypotheticals plucked from the air, fly directly in the face of probability, and you're now backing away from them as "not actually what you think is likely to happen"? 

Gotcha.  

 

[Bayhawks]

Well I interpreted his post differently than you did mainly because he clarified what he meant in a later post.  He specifically says " Steelers don't need their "A" game; if NE only has their "C-" game. " and " If both teams have their "A" games, I give the edge to NE (70% or so)".  

ETA - I wasn't trying to say that his post had any merit to it.  Just trying to clarify what he meant.  

I made the 2nd post (the "clarification" post you cited).  I DID NOT make the first post. 

ETA-I also wasn't trying to say the 1st post had/did not have merit, I was just trying to clarify, as well.

 

[Stealthycat]

Patriots gave up passing/running yards to Houston. You can't believe PIT isn't going to get 350 yards at least of total offense I'd think resulting in what. ... 27-30 points maybe?

This is going to be a high scoring game IMO and I love Tom Brady so I'll think 35-31 Patriots

In my Draftkings I am staying away from this game for the most part because I have no idea who's going to blow up... Floyd 5-110-2 ? Blount 3 TD's? Bennett or James exploding at TE ? WR3's getting all the action ? but high scoring I'm betting on it

 

[Bayhawks]

Sooooo you actually use a ton of words to say that you actually have no factual basis behind anything you've said.... and any numbers you DID post were just random hypotheticals plucked from the air, fly directly in the face of probability, and you're now backing away from them as "not actually what you think is likely to happen"? 

Gotcha.  

I'm not backing away from anything.  I said, IN MY INITIAL POST, these were hypothetical possibilities and my opinions.  

YOU decided to try to put words in my posts & say these were predictions or facts, creating your own strawman that you could rail against, and somehow feel proud of yourself for defending your team. 

Whatever makes you feel special, I guess.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Arrogance?  Quite the opposite.  You apparently read what you want to read.  No, the Steelers don't need their A game to win, they just need to play better than however the Patriots play, and HOUSTON hung with them for most of the game last week.

I listen to all of these stupid statistics about the Patriots and their offense and defense from 2016, when those statistics (especially defensive ones) are more of a product of facing a god awful schedule of terrible QBs than anything that will have anything to do with their ability to face the Steelers offense this Sunday.  It's been rare that the Steelers enter a Patriots game fully healthy.  This time that's not the case, and it'll be fun to see.  Earlier this year, Bell had a really nice game and Brown went over 100 yards with Landry Jones under center... we'll see how Ben can do I guess.

I never said the Steelers defense is better than the Pats defense.  I never said the Steelers offense is better than the Pats offense, either.  I think both teams' offenses have very distinct advantages over the other teams' defenses but I'm not really sure which advantage is bigger.  I think the only area that there's any clear advantage is with coaching on the Patriots side, because I have little faith that a Tomlin-coached team will be able to make in-game adjustments needed to win like the Patriots can and will.   

What I did say is that no statistics from the regular season mean diddly poo when the Patriots faced a schedule like that.  Shutting down those QBs isn't going to help them in a matchup like this.  It's not like the Steelers faced a gauntlet of stud QBs either, but I'm not touting the Steelers defense as anything special.  They're going to need to play the Patriots offense differently than they have or they'll get picked apart again.  The difference between this matchup and other previous ones is that the Steelers' offense is healthy and can score right with them. 

A. I replied to what u wrote originally not the qualified statement above. Had you originally said "No, the Steelers don't need their A game to win, they just need to play better than however the Patriots play" I would have replied duh or probably ignored the entire post entirely. If you u really meant "if ne plays poorly, then pitt could win without their "A" game" I agree so lets move on.

B. It is true that you never said the Steelers defense is better than the pats def. However, you did say  "This isn't a very good Patriots defense". So maybe you meant to also say Pitt doesn't have a very good def either? To me you seemed to be implying Pitts is better.

C. I get that ne hasn't played a strong schedule, but neither has pitt so I don't see think it is all that meaningful to try and denigrate either team with that info.

Its going to be a long week and while I am confident we will be at each others throats in no time, it is still only Tuesday. I admittedly may have taken some of your post to literally and maybe you could have chosen some of the wording a little more carefully.   

 

[Godsbrother]

Lot of fun going on in here -- this is a good thing.  

I'm enjoying the banter, just keep away from insults and keep 'em coming boys.   Nice to see some life in the ol' Shark Pool for a change

 

[Niles Standish]

I did my own basic offensive / defensive breakdown to have a better comparison. Here is the methodology. If TEAM A scored 30 points against TEAM B, and TEAM B allowed an average of 20 ppg in all their other games, TEAM A got a "+10 points" for their offense output in that game. Rinse and repeat for all games for both PIT and NE (for both offense and defense).

The Patriots offense on a per game basis scored +5.4 ppg versus the expected number of points . So to explain it again, if the Ravens allowed an average of 21.6 points to everyone else, NE would have scored 27 points.

The Patriots defense on a per game basis allowed -5.4 ppg versus the expected number of points. If the Bengals averaged 19.4 ppg against everyone else, the Patriots would allow 14.

It was just a coincidence that the offensive and defensive numbers were the same. So over the course of their 17 games, the Patriots adjusted number above their expected results if they were an average team was +10.8 ppg.

Looking at Pittsburgh, their offense scored at a +3.0 points clip compared to the average points allowed average. Again it's just a fluke coincidence, but the PIT defense allowed 3.0 fewer ppg. So their adjusted or normalized per game total game to +6.0 ppg.

Bottom line, the Patriots collectively were +4.8 ppg better than their expected PF and PA totals.

Interesting.  If you have the 2nd half numbers without all kinds of additional work I'd be interested.  Since the Steelers vastly improved (record-wise) in the 2nd half of the season.

I'd be interested if both 7-1 records in the 2nd half say about the same thing or if one is better than the other.  Plus it would get rid of the Ben/Brady missed games earlier in the year.

 

[Steelers4Life]

A. I replied to what u wrote originally not the qualified statement above. Had you originally said "No, the Steelers don't need their A game to win, they just need to play better than however the Patriots play" I would have replied duh or probably ignored the entire post entirely. If you u really meant "if ne plays poorly, then pitt could win without their "A" game" I agree so lets move on.

B. It is true that you never said the Steelers defense is better than the pats def. However, you did say  "This isn't a very good Patriots defense". So maybe you meant to also say Pitt doesn't have a very good def either? To me you seemed to be implying Pitts is better.

C. I get that ne hasn't played a strong schedule, but neither has pitt so I don't see think it is all that meaningful to try and denigrate either team with that info.

Its going to be a long week and while I am confident we will be at each others throats in no time, it is still only Tuesday. I admittedly may have taken some of your post to literally and maybe you could have chosen some of the wording a little more carefully.   

You read a lot into what I said, that's for sure!

To be clear, I don't think the Patriots necessarily have to play poorly for the Steelers to beat them.  These Steelers can beat the Patriots even if both teams play well.  The Steelers "A" game might very well be just as good as the Patriots "A" game going into this week, a fact that seems to be lost on any Pats fans who cite only meaningless regular season statistics as evidence.  Those statistics for BOTH teams on BOTH sides of the ball are based just as much on their schedules as they are their talent, and both teams are far different now than they were earlier in the season.

My statement was simple.  This isn't a very good Pats defense.  I meant it.  I didn't mean or intend to say anything positive or negative about the Steelers defense and I certainly wasn't implying anything, either.  It was in response to someone citing awesome defensive stats for the Patriots that were more of a function of poor offenses they faced than anything else.

The difference between their schedules is negligible, but it does appear that the Steelers faced a few more quality opponents and QBs along the way.  (Dallas, Kansas City, the Eagles when Wentz was rolling, the late-season Giants)  The biggest difference is that Pats fans seem to be keen on using regular season stats to back up how good and efficient they are.  I don't see many Steelers fans doing that at all.  Why?  The Steelers are playing at a much higher level now on both sides of the ball than they were in the first half, and those stats for both teams are pretty meaningless.  What matters is how they match up now against each other, and I don't think the Patriots' edge on offense is any bigger than the Steelers' one.  The offenses don't face each other.  Coaching, well that's another issue and one I'm admittedly concerned about, because I want to see how Butler attacked Brady and their short passing game.

It's all good... been around here far too long to take anything personally even if I post about 5% as much as I used to!