David Yudkin
Footballguy
I went back and scanned the staff articles (Over/Under Rated and Deep Sleepers) to see who made me look good . . . at least so far. (NOTE: I completely left off the guys I totally swung and missed on, but that's not the important part.) Remember that the staff had to write their comments MONTHS before the season started. Who have you been right on, at least very early on.
UNDERVALUEDIn two years as a starting QB, Philip Rivers has ranked 8th and 15th, yet his ADP is QB16. The Bolts added Chris Chambers to go along with Vincent Jackson and Craig Davis at WR and they still have LT and Gates as their go to receivers. I doubt they will run Tomlinson into the ground as much as in the past, and they have a ton of weapons for Rivers. The running back options in Chicago leave a lot to be desired. Cedric Benson has multiple issues. They also have the wrong Adrian Peterson (the one with the 3.4 ypc). With neither of those two having lit the world on fire, the Bears invested an early pick on Matt Forte, and he should get his chance to earn significant touches as the season progresses.Chris Chambers split time between the lowly Dolphins and high-flying Chargers last year and ranked 29th. With a full off-season to get acclimated to the SD system and build chemistry with Philip Rivers, I'm thinking he'll gain more than two spots in the rankings (ADP of 27). This is more a vote of no confidence in Marvin Harrison than a vote of confidence in Anthony Gonzalez. But if Harrison misses a lot of time or retires, Gonzalez would stand to inherit a lot of playing time and targets, enough to make him at the very least a decent fantasy WR2. He did have several decent outings last year in Harrison’s absence.Given that I see Kurt Warner starting for much of the year, that he out produced Tom Brady over the last 8 games of 2007, and that he ranked as the #10 fantasy QB in 2007, this one was an easy pick. The Arizona offense has shown to be explosive under Warner and anemic under Matt Leinart. If we as casual observers can identify this, it should not take the Cardinals' coaching staff long to figure it out either. In the six games Derrick Ward saw double digit carries last year, he was extremely productive. He had a 5.1 ypc in those games, averaging 119 yards from scrimmage, and 0.5 TD per game. Yet with Ward still iffy health wise, his ADP is later than teammate Ahmad Bradshaw. If Ward is fully recovered from his broken leg that saw him placed on IR last year, he should again see a fair amount of touches, especially if Brandon Jacobs were to get dinged up. If you believe the reports coming out of Cincinnati, Chris Perry is a lot healthier than in the past and could be in line to assume the #2 spot on the Bengals depth chart behind Rudi Johnson. With an ADP in the 230s, Perry is essentially a risk free investment that could stand to see some touches should Johnson stay banged up and/or unproductive like he was last season. The Saints should again be flinging the ball all over the field, and David Patten returns as the team's WR2. Yet for some inexplicable reason, his ADP is in the WR75-80 range even though he ranked 42nd a year ago even seeing limited action the first month of the season. OVERVALUEDI like Tom Brady as much as the next guy, but the fact of the matter is that Tom Terrific has no place to go but down. History has not been kind to fantasy QBs the year after a season with lofty TD totals. There have been only six other quarterbacks to throw for 39 TDs in a season let alone 50. Their average fantasy decrease in Year X +1 was 171 fantasy points (a 40% decrease). Brady at the #6 spot overall is overpaying for last year’s mega season.Matt Hasselbeck's best asset may be his sister-in-law, especially given the state of the Seahawks receiving corps. D.J. Hackett has moved on, Deion Branch can't even suit up yet, Bobby Engram could be out for two months, the Hawks are starting a rookie TE, and the rest of the WR corps has very little game day experience. That looks like a recipe for mediocrity in my book. Matt Leinart has not done much early in his career, and if the Cardinals have visions of making the playoffs NOW then Kurt Warner would be a better option. Warner ranked in the Top 10 QBs last year based on a scintillating second half. Leinart will get one more shot, but he could be delving into David Carr/Joey Harrington territory pretty soon.Call me crazy, but I get leery of running backs having knee surgery just before the start of the season. Any residual pain, discomfort, or additional problems will put the kibosh on Willis McGahee ranking 13th or better this year. Larry Johnson could get a lot of touches but not a lot of fantasy scoring (a la Curtis Martin in 2003 or Edge in ARI in 06). Those backs each got over 300 carries but ranked 18th and 20th. Johnson will be 29 this year and only had a 3.5 ypc last season, and it's conceivable that the Chiefs are as scoring challenged as the Jets and Cardinals were. This is not the same team that put up big numbers a few years back. Cedric Benson has been a triple threat for the Bears: off field legal issues, mediocre on-field performance, and on-going health concerns. Any and all of those could lead to Benson being out of the lineup for whatever reason. But the bottom line has been that he’s been a major disappointment and the Bears have to at least be considering going in another direction at running back.Laurence Maroney had a nice run at the end of last year, but look for the Patriots to try to repeat what got them to 16-0: passing extensively to move the ball, using a committee approach to running the football, and utilizing a wide range of weapons near the goal line. Maroney will see his usual 15-18 carries a game, but he won’t be in the 300+ carry range. He also is not a full time goal line back and rarely sees the field on passing downs. And then there’s his penchant for getting nagging injuries to consider as well . . History has not been kind to WRs that have hit the 15 TD mark. Based on some of the other WRs from the past, there is a better chance Braylon Edwards ends up with eight TDs than 16 again. If he could match his other numbers, an eight-TD season could knock Edwards out of the Top 10. Count me in the camp that Marvin Harrison is vastly approaching “done” status or at the very least on the road to determining that he is “done.” I’m not sure he really has much desire to play anymore, and I really don’t see him posting anywhere near the roughly 70-1000-6 that he would need to rank as the #22 WR. He may miss several games, may see limited action in several games, and ultimately may call it quits. That’s just speculation on my part, but that’s what my Spidey sense is telling me.I’m not hearing great things about Branch’s recovery right now, and obviously if he isn’t playing he isn’t racking up fantasy production. If Branch starts the year on the PUP list and winds up misses half the season, it would be very unlikely he could make a run at being a Top 40 fantasy receiver missing all those games and with limited practice and conditioning.Vernon Davis may be immensely talented, but after his first two seasons he’s been a bit of a disappointment, ranking 22nd and 14th. This go round, he has Mike Martz running the offense, and historically the Martz-style system has not featured the tight end all that much. Maybe Davis will come around this year, but I think there are less risky options available after Davis has already been drafted.
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