After the top 4 in the draft (1 Viewer)

[Cool in the pocket]

Early ADP suggest that LJ, LT and SA will go 1,2,3 and that Portis seems to have a decent hold on #4. Tiki, Edge, Jordan, SJ, Rudi, Brown, Caddie, Steve Smith, Peyton follow in varying orders. In reading the overrated/underrated thread and others floating around there is alot of sharks that feel this second tier of RB's have significant questions attached to them. Tiki--too many touches LY and age, Edge--New team, less TD's, going top 10 based on LY... Many sharks will not touch a QB in the early rounds much less the first. There also doesn't seem to be a clear cut WR that merits a first round selection. Steve Smith coming off a career year with good RB support and Key, TO has Parcell's and an O with many weapons, Chad has Carson...

Most good leagues can't afford a first rounder that has significant doubt attached to him since your season can be shot with a first round bust and after #3 (some would say higher), that's all there is. So, unless you are lucky and draw top 3, what is the factor/strategy that guides you to your pick in the first round? Is there someone in the top 10 that doesn't have doubt? Maybe this is the same question we can ask year after year and just subsitute top 3 for top X?

 

[Monarch]

Last year there were questions abound as well. Willis "bust" McGeehee shot up to the 5th pick last year in many drafts based on a strong finish the previous year. Some could argue that Chad Johnson is the sure bet and I would not be surprised to see him go in the top 10.

 

[David Yudkin]

Last year there were questions abound as well. Willis "bust" McGeehee shot up to the 5th pick last year in many drafts based on a strong finish the previous year. Some could argue that Chad Johnson is the sure bet and I would not be surprised to see him go in the top 10.

With Palmer's status still somewhat unknown, I'm thinking CJ in the Top 10 overall is pretty risky.

 

[Da Flyin Lion]

With the top 4 set, I have Tiki Barber as a lock for #5. He's been a RB1 for 3 of the last 4 years. He's on a solid team, with a good offense, defense, supporting WRs, TEs, and QB. He excels between the 20s, goal line and at catching passes and although there has been talk of him splitting goal line carries with other backs, it has never come to fruition in the offseason.

The negatives on Tiki this year are his high number of carries, age, and difficult schedule.

While these are bigger concerns then the then the top 4 Rbs, I only think it reduces Tiki to a RB below these guys. Not the tier 2/3 guys he is being compared with. Tiki had a lot of carries last year just like LT2 and Alexander, but if these guys are still in the top 3 then you can't drop Tiki for that. The NFC east schedule looks tough but this should also effect Portis who is ranked as the #4 back. Also, Lamont Jordan had a very tough schedule last year and he still finished as an RB1. Age is one thing Tiki has that the 4 RBs ahead of him don't. However his lighter workload earlier in his career doesn't put him that far ahead of guys like Alexander, Portis and LT who's who have been top Rbs for the last 4 years +. I think Tiki is a lot closer to Portis and LT2 then guys like Edge, Jordan and Cadillac. Who also have question marks like poor offense and poor O-line.

My rankings have the big 3 as tier one, Portis and Tiki as Tier 2, and the rest as tier 3. No way Tiki should drop below the #5 RB.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

With the top 4 set, I have Tiki Barber as a lock for #5. He's been a RB1 for 3 of the last 4 years. He's on a solid team, with a good offense, defense, supporting WRs, TEs, and QB. He excels between the 20s, goal line and at catching passes and although there has been talk of him splitting goal line carries with other backs, it has never come to fruition in the offseason.

The negatives on Tiki this year are his high number of carries, age, and difficult schedule.

While these are bigger concerns then the then the top 4 Rbs, I only think it reduces Tiki to a RB below these guys. Not the tier 2/3 guys he is being compared with. Tiki had a lot of carries last year just like LT2 and Alexander, but if these guys are still in the top 3 then you can't drop Tiki for that. The NFC east schedule looks tough but this should also effect Portis who is ranked as the #4 back. Also, Lamont Jordan had a very tough schedule last year and he still finished as an RB1. Age is one thing Tiki has that the 4 RBs ahead of him don't. However his lighter workload earlier in his career doesn't put him that far ahead of guys like Alexander, Portis and LT who's who have been top Rbs for the last 4 years +. I think Tiki is a lot closer to Portis and LT2 then guys like Edge, Jordan and Cadillac. Who also have question marks like poor offense and poor O-line.

My rankings have the big 3 as tier one, Portis and Tiki as Tier 2, and the rest as tier 3. No way Tiki should drop below the #5 RB.

I don't disagree with anything you said. It is the strategy behind the Tiki ranking that interests me. Obviously you think that Tiki's recent seasons, supporting cast, pass catching...success outweighs his age, his 400 touches LY and his difficult schedule. This is what I am trying to get at--what factors take precedence, guide your decision etc. when there are question marks about a tier/group of players, especially in the first or second round where you need to be risk averse as much as possible.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Last year there were questions abound as well. Willis "bust" McGeehee shot up to the 5th pick last year in many drafts based on a strong finish the previous year. Some could argue that Chad Johnson is the sure bet and I would not be surprised to see him go in the top 10.

With Palmer's status still somewhat unknown, I'm thinking CJ in the Top 10 overall is pretty risky.

I'm with David here--I don't believe that any WR deserves round 1 consideration unless it is a PPR league and even then, I'm not so sure. This year there seems to be no clear cut #1 WR or even a top 3 like TO, Randy and Marv of yesteryear. I could easily see a group of 6 or 7 finishing #1 and there are issues surrounding all of them.

 

[The Ref]

Early ADP suggest that LJ, LT and SA will go 1,2,3 and that Portis seems to have a decent hold on #4. Tiki, Edge, Jordan, SJ, Rudi, Brown, Caddie, Steve Smith, Peyton follow in varying orders. In reading the overrated/underrated thread and others floating around there is alot of sharks that feel this second tier of RB's have significant questions attached to them. Tiki--too many touches LY and age, Edge--New team, less TD's, going top 10 based on LY... Many sharks will not touch a QB in the early rounds much less the first. There also doesn't seem to be a clear cut WR that merits a first round selection. Steve Smith coming off a career year with good RB support and Key, TO has Parcell's and an O with many weapons, Chad has Carson...

Most good leagues can't afford a first rounder that has significant doubt attached to him since your season can be shot with a first round bust and after #3 (some would say higher), that's all there is. So, unless you are lucky and draw top 3, what is the factor/strategy that guides you to your pick in the first round? Is there someone in the top 10 that doesn't have doubt? Maybe this is the same question we can ask year after year and just subsitute top 3 for top X?

I see Four tiers in the top 12.LT2, LJ, SA, in tier 1

Portis all by himself in tier 2

Tiki, LaMont and Rudi in tier 3.

Peyton, Smith, Caddy, Jackson, Brown and Edge in Tier 4.

Of course there is a lot of time left before the regular season.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

A lot depends on the scoring system. PPR/non-PPR. Points for yardage vs. TDs, etc.

My league is non-PPR and awards 1 pt/20 yards rushing rather than 10, so a guy like Rudi Johnson moves up a couple of spots, ahead of Lamont Jordan, and maybe ahead of Tiki (if you don't project another 2,000 combined yds for Barber.)

 

[rzrback77]

A lot depends on the scoring system.  PPR/non-PPR.  Points for yardage vs. TDs, etc.

My league is non-PPR and awards 1 pt/20 yards rushing rather than 10, so a guy like Rudi Johnson moves up a couple of spots, ahead of Lamont Jordan, and maybe ahead of Tiki (if you don't project another 2,000 combined yds for Barber.)

PPR or not would have definite impact.In non-PPR, regarding Tiki, I just can't justify him ranked fifth. He is over 30 and coming off two years of high usage and high production. He just has to be due for a decrease.

Lsat year I got him at 1.10 in my local league. He is another year older and has much more mileage on his wheels. I would still take him at nine or ten, but just can't buy fifth.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

A lot depends on the scoring system.  PPR/non-PPR.  Points for yardage vs. TDs, etc.

My league is non-PPR and awards 1 pt/20 yards rushing rather than 10, so a guy like Rudi Johnson moves up a couple of spots, ahead of Lamont Jordan, and maybe ahead of Tiki (if you don't project another 2,000 combined yds for Barber.)

PPR or not would have definite impact.In non-PPR, regarding Tiki, I just can't justify him ranked fifth. He is over 30 and coming off two years of high usage and high production. He just has to be due for a decrease.

Lsat year I got him at 1.10 in my local league. He is another year older and has much more mileage on his wheels. I would still take him at nine or ten, but just can't buy fifth.

I got him at 2.11 last year.

 

[rzrback77]

A lot depends on the scoring system.  PPR/non-PPR.  Points for yardage vs. TDs, etc.

My league is non-PPR and awards 1 pt/20 yards rushing rather than 10, so a guy like Rudi Johnson moves up a couple of spots, ahead of Lamont Jordan, and maybe ahead of Tiki (if you don't project another 2,000 combined yds for Barber.)

PPR or not would have definite impact.In non-PPR, regarding Tiki, I just can't justify him ranked fifth. He is over 30 and coming off two years of high usage and high production. He just has to be due for a decrease.

Lsat year I got him at 1.10 in my local league. He is another year older and has much more mileage on his wheels. I would still take him at nine or ten, but just can't buy fifth.

I got him at 2.11 last year.

Highway robbery and I'm jealous.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

A lot depends on the scoring system. PPR/non-PPR. Points for yardage vs. TDs, etc.

My league is non-PPR and awards 1 pt/20 yards rushing rather than 10, so a guy like Rudi Johnson moves up a couple of spots, ahead of Lamont Jordan, and maybe ahead of Tiki (if you don't project another 2,000 combined yds for Barber.)

PPR or not would have definite impact.In non-PPR, regarding Tiki, I just can't justify him ranked fifth. He is over 30 and coming off two years of high usage and high production. He just has to be due for a decrease.

Lsat year I got him at 1.10 in my local league. He is another year older and has much more mileage on his wheels. I would still take him at nine or ten, but just can't buy fifth.

I got him at 2.11 last year.

Highway robbery and I'm jealous.

Type of league has an impact for sure, but what are the critical factors that weigh into the ranking/tiering of players? There are tons for sure: Opportunity, offense, schedule, age, previous years stats, team outlook...but which ones carry the most weight in slotting/tiering players especially the first/second round ones where you need to avoid risk as much as possible?