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Aggresive trading in your dynasty startup ;The Big Trade Up (1 Viewer)

oukurt

Footballguy
My current 12 Team SuperFlex startup 3RR draft

Chosen draft position =9

11 starters, 1 Flex, 1 SF

 1-2 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE

Scoring:

Pass TD 4, all other TD 6 

.25 per rush attempt

PPR, 1.5 TE Bonus

My team - We The North

Draft:

https://www69.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=16882&O=17

Im hoping to get feedback on something I have never tried in a startup.

It’s a high risk, high reward trade up strategy. It’s best used for rounds 1 -10. Essentially trading two draft picks for one and your 2022 Rookie 1st and/or 2nd, 3rd, 4th (optional) to gain yet another startup draft pick usually anywhere from the 6th - 9th round.  I was able to secure the pick at 7.08 with my 2022 1st. Also note there are countless opinions on futures. When I have drafted past dynasty teams, my common strategy was trading back and accumulating as many future picks as I could. Which works for many because these future rookie picks always appreciate in value. They can help you move up the rookie draft board by packaging these picks or my preferred method of drafting for BPA and trading directly for team needs.  
OK, so the idea here is to keep trading up two for ones in the first 10 rounds of the draft.
You can continue trying to trade up with the same two for one strategy, but at the end of round 9 the talent pool thins out and there really isn’t much to gain from trading up there, IMO. 
As suggested by the architect of this strategy, announce your intentions via communique prior to your slow draft. Make known your intentions to seeking trade partners multiple times in the first 10 rounds. You should get plenty of discussion and replies by those trading back. Make it known on the message board, by text, and/or league e-mail that you will offering trades of solid value.  Don’t send a couple of messages out, get it to everyone in your league early and often.

And we’re off….

Original pick 1.09 / RB Jonathan Taylor, IND

Original pick 2.04 / RB Alvin Kamara, NOS

Trade #1

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 2.08

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 4.09; Year 2021 Draft Pick 6.09; 

Acquired Pick : 2.08 QB Trey Lance, SFO

——————————————————

Original Pick: 3.04 /WR, CeeDee Lamb, DAL

Trade #2

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 5.04; Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.04

Washington United FC gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 3.05

Acquired Pick: 3.05 WR Calvin Ridley, ATL

——————————————————

Trade #3

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 8.09;  2021 Draft Pick 9.04

POOPSLINGER gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.02

Acquired Pick: 7.02 QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

—————————————————

Trade #4 

We The North gave up Year 2022 Rookie Round 1 Draft Pick from We The North

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.08

Acquired Pick: 7.08 WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA

——————————————————

Trade 5

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 10.09; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.09; 

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 9.08

Acquired Pick: 9.08 WR Laviska Shenault, JAC

——————————————————

6th and Final Trade:

A separate trade not part of the “trade up” strategy,  but I feel the trade up strategy very much made this trade at the start of Round 11 possible.

We The North gave up Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB; Ridley, Calvin ATL WR

POOPSLINGER gave up Burrow, Joe CIN QB; Year 2021 Draft Pick 11.02; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.11

Acquired Pick: 11.02  QB Jameis Winston, NOS

Original Pick: 11.04 /TE Tyler Higbee, LAR

Acquired Pick : 12.11 TE Cole Kmet, CHI

Original Pick: 13.04  WR Robbie Anderson, CAR

Original Pick : 14.09 RB Rhomandre Stevenson, NEP

Originsl Pick: 15.04 RB Jamaal Williams, DET

……cont.

Conclusion: I like the strategy results. I was able to make the trades I needed at every turn.  There was always an owner ready and willing to trade with me. On average I attempted to give up small % per trade according to the draft pick calculator. I felt it would be foolish to try and propose a trade at the recipient’s expense, after all I was going to need trade partners to try this aggressive idea out. 
In conclusion, as mentioned I was able to make the needed trade at each interval.  So I was prepared to take the minimal trade % losses on the five trades I needed.
One curious occurrence. There was one team owner that could not live without my Ridley and Tua draft selections. In fact, I told him I was not interested the first five times he proposed a trade for Ridley and Tua. With each “no” answer he became more determined and finally asked me to put a trade together that would net him Ridley and Tua and to “do my worst”. So I proposed the trade (see trade 6) that is mentioned here and he accepted instantly. Hell, I should have asked for a more. Needless to say,  I was able to recoup any of my very small trade % losses with this approximate 15% trade in my favor I made dealing Ridley and Tua for Joe Burrow.  Again,, this is a SF league and I see this trade as a big win.

 
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oukurt

Footballguy
Pitts at 1.06 in a superflex wow
Yes even CMC should be drafted after the elite 6-7 QBs in a start 1-2 QB

The Pitts pick was a WTF moment. Always one in the crowd. 
now watch Pitts become 1.01 for the next 10 years.  HA

 

oukurt

Footballguy
Surprised to see CMC over Mahomes in a superflex
Yes, a gamble if you ask me. I hate drafting from the 1.01. Every mock seemed to result in a mediocre team  

 
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Shaq90

Footballguy
My current 12 Team, SF startup draft. Chosen draft position =9

 1-2 QB 
Scoring:

Pass TD 4, all other TD 6

.25 per rush attempt

PPR, 1.5 TE Bonus

My team - We The North

Draft:

https://www69.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=16882&O=17

Im hoping to get feedback on something I have never tried in a startup.

It’s a high risk, high reward trade up strategy best used for rounds 1 -10 according to the podcast host. Essentially trading two for ones and your 2022 Rookie 1st (optional) to gain yet another startup draft pick from anywhere from the 6th - 9th round.  I was able to move my 2022 rookie 1st in round 7. So the idea is to keep trading up in the first 10 rounds of the draft. You can continue trading up with the same two for one strategy but at the end of Round 9 the talent pool thins out and there really isn’t much to gain from trading up there, IMO.

so….

Trades made:

Trade #1

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 2.08

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 4.09; Year 2021 Draft Pick 6.09; 

My Pick: QB Trey Lance, SFO

Trade #2

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 5.04; Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.04

Washington United FC gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 3.05

My Pick: WR Calvin Ridley, ATL

Trade #3

We The North gave up Year 2022 Round 1 Draft Pick from We The North

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.08

My Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle

Trade 4

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 10.09; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.09; 

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 9.08

My Pick: Laviska Shenault, WR JAC

Trade 5

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 8.09;  2021 Draft Pick 9.04

POOPSLINGER gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.02

My Pick: QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

6th and Final Trade:

A separate trade not part of the strategy,  but I feel the strategy very much made this trade at the start of Round 11 possible.

We The North gave up Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB; Ridley, Calvin ATL WR

POOPSLINGER gave up Burrow, Joe CIN QB; Year 2021 Draft Pick 11.02; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.11

Conclusion -I like the strategy results. I was able to make the trades suggested in the podcast at every turn.  There was always an owner ready and willing to trade with me. On average I gave up 1-5% per trade according to the draft pick calculator. With the small % I gave up in each trade, I was able to recoup any losses with solid drafting and the 15% trade in my favor listed above as “Trade 6”.  

This is a lot of fun. 
We love you Kurt!!

 

rockaction

Footballguy
I actually thought this strategy was a novel idea, especially after a good result when I tried it.  Perhaps not. 
Should anyone try it, let me know how it worked out. 
Enjoy the weekend. 
I honestly can't really follow it. I looked at your draft, too. Too many moving pieces to follow exactly what the strategy was at first blush, but then again, maybe I'm just a lil' slow on the uptake, you know?

 

oukurt

Footballguy
I honestly can't really follow it. I looked at your draft, too. Too many moving pieces to follow exactly what the strategy was at first blush, but then again, maybe I'm just a lil' slow on the uptake, you know?
Even if some don’t agree with the value of the players I drafted that gave me my core group of 5 “super elite”, surely they can see what they could have assembled with those same extra valuable draft picks. Essentially, using this tactic enables an owner to choose from what I view as the top 30ish “uber elite”.
i.e. Instead of just drafting Kyler Murray and Cam Akers within that same top 30, then waiting for your next pick at 3.07, you can put KM and CA in the bank and then figure out what other 3 of the super talented crop of the top 30 players is going to fall to you. What an advantage that gives even an average fantasy football mind like mine. What a built in advantage having  2-3 more players chosen from the already proven and established that are outproducing their fellow NFL peers at their given position every year.

Maybe some reading this don’t agree with my opinion that there is a drop off in talent at around pick 30 that separates the “ultra productive” scoring from the “very good” scoring.  I am not so closed minded that I can’t back up and objectively assume that not everyone is going to be good with not having a draft pick from rounds 6-7 (if all the suggested trades are made) because with this strategy your 4th and 6th round picks were packaged as you traded to move up for an extra 2nd round pick at the 2.08 (pick 20 overall) and your 5th and 7th round picks were packaged to move back up into round 3 for an extra pick at the 3.05 (pick 29 overall). The “kick the can back to the next round” tactic is being  used
I then continued with this strategy by trading my 8th and 9th round picks to move into the pick at 7.02. Next I traded  my 2022 Rookie 1st for the pick at 7.08. I  then concluded by trading my 10th and 12th round picks to move up for the pick at 9.08.

Some may believe they would be sacrificing roster depth when implementing this liberal build. 
I suppose that is a valid argument for some, contrary to my opinion that the trade off is very well worth it. You are actually not losing picks albeit for round six I believe bc you are continually kicking the missed draft pick round back.

In closing, while a couple of owners in the this league with me think this approach is genius and feel I drafted strongly enough to contend for league championships over the next 3-5 years Note: the approach may be genius, definitely not me. :)  
Maybe this strategy inspires others who previously only believed that trading back and accumulating assets of extra draft picks and futures was the only way to go when trading draft picks.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
I just looked at your draft and I do like the players you selected that were not the result of trades.

5 picks in the top 30 is great as long as all of those players pan out. You don't have fallback options if for example Trey Lance does not become a good starter. We don't know how good he will be yet.

While I can somewhat agree with your point about their being a uber tier of players that gets exhausted somewhat after the top 30 picks, those picks also have little to no upside as far as outperforming their draft position while the picks you gave up after that do. Someone is going to draft a QB in that range who will outperform Trey Lance most likely for example.

My focus during a start up draft is very different than this approach. I want to trade down and add more picks not trade up and lose picks.

I think this using this strategy is more win now than anything else. So hopefully you do win a lot in the first few seasons because when Kamara fades you will lose him and you don't have the depth to step into his shoes like other teams do because of the trades.

CeeDee Lamb and Johnathan Taylor should be top 12 players at their positions for many years to come though. I do love those picks for you. Those were picks made that did not involve trades.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I have changed my mind about your 6th trade which was to give Ridley and Tua for Burrow. You would not have been able to get Burrow just drafting naturally and that ended up being pick 3.05 and pick 7.02 for picks 2.02 11.02 and 12.11

I think that is a good trade for you and you would not have been able to get Burrow naturally without the trade as he went very high.

I looked at the QB available where you took Ridley and yes the good young ones were gone by then.

Having Burrow and Lance in SF dynasty is about as good as it gets and that was a good trade for you. You not only got to trade up but you gained an extra pick in the process.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Ah, I see. I don't have familiarity with start-ups from this year, so I'm probably not the best guy to comment, but I do understand your strategy a bit now. Thanks for the second explanation. I'll keep it in mind if I ever have a start-up going. From a novice's standpoint, I think it's something interesting to keep in mind, especially the valuation of that elite top thirty. Thanks for posting. 

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Using the Superflex draft value chart for June by @Dan Hindery:

Trade #1

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 2.08

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 4.09; Year 2021 Draft Pick 6.09; 

My Pick: QB Trey Lance, SFO
Lance (2.8) = QB9, value 40

Hockenson (4.9) = TE5, value 18

Claypool (6.9) = WR24, value 19

Result = +3 for @oukurt

Trade #2

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 5.04; Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.04

Washington United FC gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 3.05

My Pick: WR Calvin Ridley, ATL
Ridley (3.5) = WR8, value 34

DJ Moore (5.4) = WR13, value 28

Gaskin (7.4) = RB26, value 10

Result = -4 for kurt

Trade #3

We The North gave up Year 2022 Round 1 Draft Pick from We The North

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.08

My Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle
Wasn't sure how to value the draft pick, so I looked at the top 12 rookies drafted in your startup:

  1. Pitts (1.6) = TE1, value 30
  2. Lawrence (1.11) = QB8, value 43
  3. Fields (2.7) = QB11, value 36
  4. Lance (2.8) = QB9, value 40
  5. Harris (2.9) = RB7, value 34
  6. Chase (3.8) = WR7, value 34
  7. Etienne (4.2) = RB17, value 27
  8. DeVonta Smith (4.11) = WR21, value 22
  9. Javonte Williams (5.2) = RB20, value 25
  10. Wilson (5.9) = QB12, value 32
  11. Sermon (6.3) = RB24, value 14
  12. Waddle (7.8) = WR20, value 22
The average value of those top 12 rookie picks is 29.9. It depends upon one's personal preference as to how much you discount a future first round pick. A 20% discount would drop the average value to 23.9, higher than Waddle's value here; a 30% discount would drop it to 20.9, less than Waddle's value here. A reasonable discounting of the future first round pick seems to make this trade very close.

If kurt finishes near the bottom of the league in 2021, he will likely lose out on this trade. OTOH, if he finishes among the top few teams in the league, he will likely win the trade. I'll call this one a wash.

Trade 4

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 10.09; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.09; 

The Whole F'in Show gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 9.08

My Pick: Laviska Shenault, WR JAC
Shenault (9.8) = WR48, value 8

Trautman (10.9) = TE12, value 6

Toney (12.9) = WR36, value 12

Result = -10 for kurt

Trade 5

We The North gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 8.09;  2021 Draft Pick 9.04

POOPSLINGER gave up Year 2021 Draft Pick 7.02

My Pick: QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Tua (7.2) = QB19, value 23

Beckham (8.9) = WR33, value 13

Love (9.4) = QB31, value 8

Result = +2 for kurt

6th and Final Trade:

A separate trade not part of the strategy,  but I feel the strategy very much made this trade at the start of Round 11 possible.

We The North gave up Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB; Ridley, Calvin ATL WR

POOPSLINGER gave up Burrow, Joe CIN QB; Year 2021 Draft Pick 11.02; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.11
Tua (7.2) = QB19, value 23

Ridley (3.5) = WR8, value 34

Burrow (2.2) = QB7, value 45

Winston (11.2) = QB29, value 9

Kmet (12.11) = TE16, value 5

Result = +2 for kurt

So if I did this correctly, Hindery's latest value chart shows kurt winning 3 trades and losing 2, not including Trade 3, which involved trading away the 2022 first round pick, which I called a wash. Overall, Hindery's values show the net of the 5 trades other than Trade 3 was a loss of value (-7).

Now, those are Hindery's values. I assume kurt (and everyone) would value these players differently, perhaps significantly so in some cases. For example, the main reason for the net negative value is Hindery's value for WR Toney, who is Hindery's WR36 but was not drafted until 12.9 and was the 52nd WR drafted.

It is also no doubt true that had kurt not made any trades, he would have drafted different players than those drafted with the picks he traded away. So his value would have ended up different than the values of the players collectively selected with the picks he traded away. Maybe more, maybe less.

At face value, kurt has what appears to be a strong nucleus for Superflex, including QB Burrow, QB Lance, RB Taylor, WR Lamb, WR Waddle, and WR Shenault. But this young core is largely unproven. It seems likely that one or more will ultimately fail to live up to expectations, at least from a fantasy perspective. And depth is going to be thin, barring additional trades. Unless I missed something, kurt has 10 players through 12 rounds of a 30 round draft. So he will end up filling his final two roster spots with the equivalent of round 31 players, after 360 draft picks. It is certainly possible to find a couple gems after the draft, but the pool of available players is going to be weak. And on top of that, he has no first round pick in next year's rookie draft.

My conclusion is that I prefer a 'normal' drafting strategy to this one. But it was definitely interesting. Thanks for posting @oukurt.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
Thanks for looking up the trade values JWB. I thought about doing that as well and I was curious what that might say about these trades.

I dont like Jalen Waddle and I would rather have the 2022 1st round pick so that one was not a wash to me but I might be wrong about him. We will see.

I also wanted to add that using such a strategy might be better paired with selecting more proven players with the picks with the goal to win now. That seems like it would fit the sacrifice of trading up better than taking highly touted but unproven rookie players with those picks. 

 
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DropKick

Footballguy
Maybe too aggressive.  While I love the idea of 4.9 and 6.9 for 2.8 or 5.4 and 7.4 for 3.5... I'm less bullish on the strategy in the middle rounds - 8.9 and 9.4 for 7.2 or even 10.9 and 12.9 for 9.08 (Shenault).   It's conceivable that Shenault would be available at 10.09.  That's an area of the draft where ADP doesn't necessarily correspond to long term value.  Give me the extra picks in the middle rounds.

Not too keen on giving up future firsts, at least not in a startup situation; player values change over time.  I'm not one to mortgage the future.

No doubt though, that level of wheeling and dealing is a lot of fun.

 

oukurt

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
I have changed my mind about your 6th trade which was to give Ridley and Tua for Burrow. You would not have been able to get Burrow just drafting naturally and that ended up being pick 3.05 and pick 7.02 for picks 2.02 11.02 and 12.11

I think that is a good trade for you and you would not have been able to get Burrow naturally without the trade as he went very high.

I looked at the QB available where you took Ridley and yes the good young ones were gone by then.

Having Burrow and Lance in SF dynasty is about as good as it gets and that was a good trade for you. You not only got to trade up but you gained an extra pick in the process.
I felt like a fish out of water trying this. Like you, I prefer trading back and picking up future 1st and 2nd rounders. 
This being my first startup Dynasty in 10 years, I wanted to try this aggressive tactic and think I will try it out again. I agree 100% that this trade up idea is best suited for win now teams and the next time I use this approach I am gong to draft with that in mind. 
I will post the results for this team at the end of the season. I believe this team can win championships. However, I think a lot hinges on if Lance becomes that QB putting up video game numbers each week with his arm and legs. 

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
I felt like a fish out of water trying this. Like you, I prefer trading back and picking up future 1st and 2nd rounders. 
This being my first startup Dynasty in 10 years, I wanted to try this aggressive tactic and think I will try it out again. I agree 100% that this trade up idea is best suited for win now teams and the next time I use this approach I am gong to draft with that in mind. 
I will post the results for this team at the end of the season. I believe this team can win championships. However, I think a lot hinges on if Lance becomes that QB putting video game numbers with his arm and legs. 
Cool. Thanks for starting the thread. Its an interesting topic. I am curious about how your 2nd attempt at this approach works out.

 

Gally

Footballguy
You ended up with still only have 7 players after 7 rounds and 8 players after 9 rounds.  You essentially have up 4th, 5ht, and 6th round picks for an extra 2nd and extra 3rd.  On the surface that seems ok but as biabreakable stated earlier I would rather have more picks in the 5-9th rounds as that is where upside really can push you over if you hit on a few of those.  

When I first started reading your OP I thought you were going to be the guy giving up 1 pick for the 2 to try and stockpile as many picks as you could in the first 10 rounds as those are the "starting quality" players.  I didn't think it would be the opposite.  Overall I guess it wasn't too bad as far as losing picks but I would still rather be the guy on the other end.  I think that gives you the best chance at having a team with staying power.  

 

oukurt

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
Using the Superflex draft value chart for June by @Dan Hindery:

Lance (2.8) = QB9, value 40

Hockenson (4.9) = TE5, value 18

Claypool (6.9) = WR24, value 19

Result = +3 for @oukurt

Ridley (3.5) = WR8, value 34

DJ Moore (5.4) = WR13, value 28

Gaskin (7.4) = RB26, value 10

Result = -4 for kurt

Wasn't sure how to value the draft pick, so I looked at the top 12 rookies drafted in your startup:

  1. Pitts (1.6) = TE1, value 30
  2. Lawrence (1.11) = QB8, value 43
  3. Fields (2.7) = QB11, value 36
  4. Lance (2.8) = QB9, value 40
  5. Harris (2.9) = RB7, value 34
  6. Chase (3.8) = WR7, value 34
  7. Etienne (4.2) = RB17, value 27
  8. DeVonta Smith (4.11) = WR21, value 22
  9. Javonte Williams (5.2) = RB20, value 25
  10. Wilson (5.9) = QB12, value 32
  11. Sermon (6.3) = RB24, value 14
  12. Waddle (7.8) = WR20, value 22
The average value of those top 12 rookie picks is 29.9. It depends upon one's personal preference as to how much you discount a future first round pick. A 20% discount would drop the average value to 23.9, higher than Waddle's value here; a 30% discount would drop it to 20.9, less than Waddle's value here. A reasonable discounting of the future first round pick seems to make this trade very close.

If kurt finishes near the bottom of the league in 2021, he will likely lose out on this trade. OTOH, if he finishes among the top few teams in the league, he will likely win the trade. I'll call this one a wash.

Shenault (9.8) = WR48, value 8

Trautman (10.9) = TE12, value 6

Toney (12.9) = WR36, value 12

Result = -10 for kurt

Tua (7.2) = QB19, value 23

Beckham (8.9) = WR33, value 13

Love (9.4) = QB31, value 8

Result = +2 for kurt

Tua (7.2) = QB19, value 23

Ridley (3.5) = WR8, value 34

Burrow (2.2) = QB7, value 45

Winston (11.2) = QB29, value 9

Kmet (12.11) = TE16, value 5

Result = +2 for kurt

So if I did this correctly, Hindery's latest value chart shows kurt winning 3 trades and losing 2, not including Trade 3, which involved trading away the 2022 first round pick, which I called a wash. Overall, Hindery's values show the net of the 5 trades other than Trade 3 was a loss of value (-7).

Now, those are Hindery's values. I assume kurt (and everyone) would value these players differently, perhaps significantly so in some cases. For example, the main reason for the net negative value is Hindery's value for WR Toney, who is Hindery's WR36 but was not drafted until 12.9 and was the 52nd WR drafted.

It is also no doubt true that had kurt not made any trades, he would have drafted different players than those drafted with the picks he traded away. So his value would have ended up different than the values of the players collectively selected with the picks he traded away. Maybe more, maybe less.

At face value, kurt has what appears to be a strong nucleus for Superflex, including QB Burrow, QB Lance, RB Taylor, WR Lamb, WR Waddle, and WR Shenault. But this young core is largely unproven. It seems likely that one or more will ultimately fail to live up to expectations, at least from a fantasy perspective. And depth is going to be thin, barring additional trades. Unless I missed something, kurt has 10 players through 12 rounds of a 30 round draft. So he will end up filling his final two roster spots with the equivalent of round 31 players, after 360 draft picks. It is certainly possible to find a couple gems after the draft, but the pool of available players is going to be weak. And on top of that, he has no first round pick in next year's rookie draft.

My conclusion is that I prefer a 'normal' drafting strategy to this one. But it was definitely interesting. Thanks for posting @oukurt.
Excellent stuff here, JWB. Great additional information here to look back over as needed. As I definitely want to give this strategy another shot prior to this season. Much appreciated !

 
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oukurt

Footballguy
Hey Marcus & Shaq

Email me @ paco4ou@gmail.com

I will get your accounts reactivated on the new book site. Cheers

 

oukurt

Footballguy
You ended up with still only have 7 players after 7 rounds and 8 players after 9 rounds.  You essentially have up 4th, 5ht, and 6th round picks for an extra 2nd and extra 3rd.  On the surface that seems ok but as biabreakable stated earlier I would rather have more picks in the 5-9th rounds as that is where upside really can push you over if you hit on a few of those.  

When I first started reading your OP I thought you were going to be the guy giving up 1 pick for the 2 to try and stockpile as many picks as you could in the first 10 rounds as those are the "starting quality" players.  I didn't think it would be the opposite.  Overall I guess it wasn't too bad as far as losing picks but I would still rather be the guy on the other end.  I think that gives you the best chance at having a team with staying power.  
Your point is valid but I think it’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges. 
The reason I like this aggressive style is that there is only one way to get a core of 5 monster players, granted Lance is a gamble no matter how great the landing spot. The other 4 I drafted along with Lance from inside what I refer to as the “Monster 30” are proven assets in a big way. 
JT, Kamara, Lamb, Ridley barring injury, I love knowing what I am likely going to get, which is conservatively top 10 scoring finishes at their positions. A more hopeful take would be how many of those will finish in the Top 3 or 5? All four of these players have legit chances to do so. Had I drafted straight up, I would likely have maybe 2 players with that chance. Players I would have drafted in rounds 4-6 , 5-7, and 8-9 may have wonderful upside, but also a much higher bust rate. I just think I prefer what I get with the core elite 5 players drafted from the “monster 30”.

Also some people that play in these dynasty leagues are more proficient at drafting in say rounds 8-15. Some OCD folks like me who have a job that affords them endless hours of reading articles here, participating in mocks, tuning in daily to dynasty podcasts and YouTube channels that strictly air live $ SF drafts like the league I’m drafting in here. Just immersing myself with hours of ADP, rookie prognosis, 2-3rd year breakouts, who to target and what rounds, strategy, sleepers, dark horses, bust players , etc…I am confident in my ability to draft strong and make up for any losses that I may be subjected to in the rounds you mention. 

It’s a small sample size now. I think I will learn more with more drafts I attack like this.

Yes I miss out on some depth in rounds 4-8, but trading the 2022 1st for the pick of Waddle works for me. Had I drafted straight up and kept that 2022 rookie  pick and say I would have ended up with rook pick 1.07 next year? It is too early to tell but from what I have seen, the early reports do not look as fruitful as this year’s crop in the first round. I would be just fine knowing I was getting a rookie the quality of Waddle. He’s going to have every opportunity to succeed and he definitely has the speed, skill, and agility to become a top 20 or better WR type.

I can go on forever but I also can see some of the points made for the other side of just staying put and drafting straight up, or trading back and trying to accrue future draft picks. Argument can be made for both sides, IMO.

i’m looking forward to trying this out again, I hope some others around here try it as well as I would love to see the results.

thanks for taking a few minutes to give me your thoughts. 👍 

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
Another way to look at this is if you are already in a established league, more often than not you want to be the person trading 2 nickels for a dime and getting the best player in the deal. 

This strategy is very much like that.

 

Gally

Footballguy
Another way to look at this is if you are already in a established league, more often than not you want to be the person trading 2 nickels for a dime and getting the best player in the deal. 

This strategy is very much like that.
I can see that analogy but if you trust your drafting ability I think having more picks is better.  I actually think a combination of the two strategies is really the optimal approach.  Trade up when you see someone you believe is a difference maker that presents themselves and then trade back if you have a bunch of players in the same tier and there isn't a clear cut difference maker of the group available.  

For start up drafts this sets your foundation so I like both options depending on how the draft is flowing.  

 

Gally

Footballguy
Your point is valid but I think it’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges. 
The reason I like this aggressive style is that there is only one way to get a core of 5 monster players, granted Lance is a gamble no matter how great the landing spot. The other 4 I drafted along with Lance from inside what I refer to as the “Monster 30” are proven assets in a big way. 
JT, Kamara, Lamb, Ridley barring injury, I love knowing what I am likely going to get, which is conservatively top 10 scoring finishes at their positions. A more hopeful take would be how many of those will finish in the Top 3 or 5? All four of these players have legit chances to do so. Had I drafted straight up, I would likely have maybe 2 players with that chance. Players I would have drafted in rounds 4-6 , 5-7, and 8-9 may have wonderful upside, but also a much higher bust rate. I just think I prefer what I get with the core elite 5 players drafted from the “monster 30”.

Also some people that play in these dynasty leagues are more proficient at drafting in say rounds 8-15. Some OCD folks like me who have a job that affords them endless hours of reading articles here, participating in mocks, tuning in daily to dynasty podcasts and YouTube channels that strictly air live $ SF drafts like the league I’m drafting in here. Just immersing myself with hours of ADP, rookie prognosis, 2-3rd year breakouts, who to target and what rounds, strategy, sleepers, dark horses, bust players , etc…I am confident in my ability to draft strong and make up for any losses that I may be subjected to in the rounds you mention. 

It’s a small sample size now. I think I will learn more with more drafts I attack like this.

Yes I miss out on some depth in rounds 4-8, but trading the 2022 1st for the pick of Waddle works for me. Had I drafted straight up and kept that 2022 rookie  pick and say I would have ended up with rook pick 1.07 next year? It is too early to tell but from what I have seen, the early reports do not look as fruitful as this year’s crop in the first round. I would be just fine knowing I was getting a rookie the quality of Waddle. He’s going to have every opportunity to succeed and he definitely has the speed, skill, and agility to become a top 20 or better WR type.

I can go on forever but I also can see some of the points made for the other side of just staying put and drafting straight up, or trading back and trying to accrue future draft picks. Argument can be made for both sides, IMO.

i’m looking forward to trying this out again, I hope some others around here try it as well as I would love to see the results.

thanks for taking a few minutes to give me your thoughts. 👍 
I get it and I think both strategies can work.  In your specific example, I like your five but there are risks that they are all for sure top 10 guys.  JT (easy schedule down the stretch inflating success, will Mack cut into touches), Lamb (he hasn't really done it yet), Ridley (foot injury and hasn't been the #1 so can he do it with no Julio), Kamara (will he be affected with no Brees).  They aren't without risk.  

Bottom line with any strategy is that you have to hit on your picks to be successful.  That is the common thread for any successful team.  Having more picks seems like the way to maximize this potential but getting to your "elite 30" group can as well.  Like I said in response to biabreakable, I think the optimal is a combo of the two strategies in that you trade up when you see an elite guy drop a bit and trade back when you have a bunch of the same evaluations.  

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I can see that analogy but if you trust your drafting ability I think having more picks is better.  I actually think a combination of the two strategies is really the optimal approach.  Trade up when you see someone you believe is a difference maker that presents themselves and then trade back if you have a bunch of players in the same tier and there isn't a clear cut difference maker of the group available.  

For start up drafts this sets your foundation so I like both options depending on how the draft is flowing.  
I agree 100% on this.

That's what tiers are for.

I did say similar and your right it's not exactly the same because you will have less quality depth to work with for trades like this post draft.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
I just finished a Superflex startup draft, my first since at least 2013. 12 teams, start 1Q 1R 2W 1T 4F 1SF 1PK 1 DST. Staggered PPR - 0.75 RB, 1.0 WR, 1.25 TE. QB scoring significantly reduced compared to normal leagues.

I made 3 trades. Collectively:

Moved down from 1.1 to 1.10 (-9 spots) - drafted RB Taylor instead of RB McCaffrey
Gave up 2022 2nd round pick - hopefully late 2nd round

in exchange for:

Moved up from 2.12 to 2.3 (+9 spots) - drafted RB Cook
Moved up from 3.12 to 3.3 (+9 spots) - drafted WR Adams
Moved up from 10.1 to 8.2 (+23 spots) - drafted QB Brady
Moved up from 15.12 to 12.10 (+38 spots) - drafted WR Robby Anderson

I ended up with this roster:

QB (3) - Cousins (7.12), Wentz (8.1), Brady (8.2)
RB (6) - Taylor (1.10), Cook (2.3), Henry (4.1), Mattison (12.1), Hines (16.1), Chris Evans (19.12)
WR (9) - Adams (3.3), Evans (5.12), Aiyuk (6.1), Rondale Moore (9.12), Davis (11.12), Anderson (12.10), Van Jefferson (18.1), John Brown (20.1), Schwartz (21.12)
TE (4) - Tonyan (13.12), Jarwin (14.1), Gronkowski (17.12), Knox (22.1)
PK (1) - Succop (23.12)
DST (1) - Kansas City Chiefs (24.1)

I'm very happy with the results of my trading strategy and prefer it to the aggressive approach advocated in the OP. But both can work for sure.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
I just finished a Superflex startup draft, my first since at least 2013. 12 teams, start 1Q 1R 2W 1T 4F 1SF 1PK 1 DST. Staggered PPR - 0.75 RB, 1.0 WR, 1.25 TE. QB scoring significantly reduced compared to normal leagues.

I made 3 trades. Collectively:

Moved down from 1.1 to 1.10 (-9 spots) - drafted RB Taylor instead of RB McCaffrey
Gave up 2022 2nd round pick - hopefully late 2nd round

in exchange for:

Moved up from 2.12 to 2.3 (+9 spots) - drafted RB Cook
Moved up from 3.12 to 3.3 (+9 spots) - drafted WR Adams
Moved up from 10.1 to 8.2 (+23 spots) - drafted QB Brady
Moved up from 15.12 to 12.10 (+38 spots) - drafted WR Robby Anderson

I ended up with this roster:

QB (3) - Cousins (7.12), Wentz (8.1), Brady (8.2)
RB (6) - Taylor (1.10), Cook (2.3), Henry (4.1), Mattison (12.1), Hines (16.1), Chris Evans (19.12)
WR (9) - Adams (3.3), Evans (5.12), Aiyuk (6.1), Rondale Moore (9.12), Davis (11.12), Anderson (12.10), Van Jefferson (18.1), John Brown (20.1), Schwartz (21.12)
TE (4) - Tonyan (13.12), Jarwin (14.1), Gronkowski (17.12), Knox (22.1)
PK (1) - Succop (23.12)
DST (1) - Kansas City Chiefs (24.1)

I'm very happy with the results of my trading strategy and prefer it to the aggressive approach advocated in the OP. But both can work for sure.
What did you have to give for the trades that got you Cook and Adams?

This team looks pretty good to me although its a bit weak at the QB 2 position unless Wentz ends up playing well again. Im not sure about your TE either. Tonyan or Jarwin could be good though and I do like Knox as well.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
What did you have to give for the trades that got you Cook and Adams?

This team looks pretty good to me although its a bit weak at the QB 2 position unless Wentz ends up playing well again. Im not sure about your TE either. Tonyan or Jarwin could be good though and I do like Knox as well.
It was third round reversal and I started with the 1.1 slot, meaning I would have 1.1, 2.12, 3.12, 4.1, etc.

I traded 1.1 and 10.1 for 1.2 and 8.2 (drafted Brady). Then I traded 1.2, 2.12, 3.12 for 1.10 (drafted Taylor), 2.3 (drafted Cook), 3.3 (drafted Adams).

I think Wentz is in a much better situation and will bounce back. (I also think he was better than given credit for in Philly, even last season.) I also must emphasize that QB scoring is dramatically reduced in this league, to a degree I have not experienced before, which reduces QB value even though it is a Superflex league. That said, I clearly need to prioritize acquiring one or more younger QBs over the next few seasons.

At TE, I think Tonyan is legit and was good value where drafted. Jarwin and Knox both have potential. In the meantime, I have Gronk paired with Brady if none of those guys emerge quickly.

Thanks for your comments!

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
It was third round reversal and I started with the 1.1 slot, meaning I would have 1.1, 2.12, 3.12, 4.1, etc.

I traded 1.1 and 10.1 for 1.2 and 8.2 (drafted Brady). Then I traded 1.2, 2.12, 3.12 for 1.10 (drafted Taylor), 2.3 (drafted Cook), 3.3 (drafted Adams).

I think Wentz is in a much better situation and will bounce back. (I also think he was better than given credit for in Philly, even last season.) I also must emphasize that QB scoring is dramatically reduced in this league, to a degree I have not experienced before, which reduces QB value even though it is a Superflex league. That said, I clearly need to prioritize acquiring one or more younger QBs over the next few seasons.

At TE, I think Tonyan is legit and was good value where drafted. Jarwin and Knox both have potential. In the meantime, I have Gronk paired with Brady if none of those guys emerge quickly.

Thanks for your comments!
I am expecting some regression for Tonyan. IIRC he caught like 90% of his red zone targets. Its just not going to happen again even if Rodgers is their QB this season, which seems up in the air and it would likely be a big downgrade for Tonyan if Rodgers does not play for them this season.

At the price point though I can't argue with that. I guess I question how legit Tonyan actually is although I do expect him to be the starting TE for Green Bay.

 
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oukurt

Footballguy
I just finished a Superflex startup draft, my first since at least 2013. 12 teams, start 1Q 1R 2W 1T 4F 1SF 1PK 1 DST. Staggered PPR - 0.75 RB, 1.0 WR, 1.25 TE. QB scoring significantly reduced compared to normal leagues.

I made 3 trades. Collectively:

Moved down from 1.1 to 1.10 (-9 spots) - drafted RB Taylor instead of RB McCaffrey
Gave up 2022 2nd round pick - hopefully late 2nd round

in exchange for:

Moved up from 2.12 to 2.3 (+9 spots) - drafted RB Cook
Moved up from 3.12 to 3.3 (+9 spots) - drafted WR Adams
Moved up from 10.1 to 8.2 (+23 spots) - drafted QB Brady
Moved up from 15.12 to 12.10 (+38 spots) - drafted WR Robby Anderson

I ended up with this roster:

QB (3) - Cousins (7.12), Wentz (8.1), Brady (8.2)
RB (6) - Taylor (1.10), Cook (2.3), Henry (4.1), Mattison (12.1), Hines (16.1), Chris Evans (19.12)
WR (9) - Adams (3.3), Evans (5.12), Aiyuk (6.1), Rondale Moore (9.12), Davis (11.12), Anderson (12.10), Van Jefferson (18.1), John Brown (20.1), Schwartz (21.12)
TE (4) - Tonyan (13.12), Jarwin (14.1), Gronkowski (17.12), Knox (22.1)
PK (1) - Succop (23.12)
DST (1) - Kansas City Chiefs (24.1)

I'm very happy with the results of my trading strategy and prefer it to the aggressive approach advocated in the OP. But both can work for sure.
I like this team. A bit soft at QB and hopefully you grow your TE position. However if you don’t have one of the big boy TE, like the majority of us ( I so wish I could invest a top 2-4 round pick for a big boy TE),  I have always punted TE in startups, it’s tough to change your ways, a 🐻 gotta be a 🐻. NOTE- That’s a teddy bear btw, my days of being a grizzly are in the rear view.

Very nice combination of youth and experience. Love your RB and WR rooms. You are a stud QB1 away from being a championship contender instead of just a playoff team. You land one of the top 10 QB and find some gold at TE, forget about it. Titletown, USA!

Well done.  Like your maneuvers. 

 
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oukurt

Footballguy
I am expecting some regression for Tonyan. IIRC he caught like 90% of his red zone targets. Its just not going to happen again even if Rodgers is their QB this season, which seems up in the air and it would likely be a big downgrade for Tonyan if Rodgers does not play for them this season.

At the price point though I can't argue with that. I guess I question how legit Tonyan actually is although I do expect him to be the starting TE for Green Bay.
I am in no man’s land with Tonyan. I don’t have the stones to draft him, yet I still lean towards last year’s TD numbers not being a fluke. I think that is just what happens to TEs that A Rod trusts on occasion ya know?

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
I am in no man’s land with Tonyan. I don’t have the stones to draft him, yet I still lean towards last year’s TD numbers not being a fluke. I think that is just what happens to TEs that A Rod trusts on occasion ya know?
Well if Rodgers plays for them this year I can see Tonyan scoring 6 TD. I just wouldnt expect as many as last season.

 

Hankmoody

Footballguy
If you're going to trade up like this and give up value you gotta get throw-ins back on those attempts.  Giving up a 10th and a 12th for a 9th is fine if "your guy" is there (and I like the Shenault pick) but you gotta get back a pick.  As mentioned above, you lost too much value missing out on bullets.  You can't hit what you don't fire and even if it's a 20th rounder you gotta get those.  Maybe you get a bonus return like James Robinson or Jamison Crowder, maybe you get a Darnell Mooney that some rebuilder lusts after and gives you a quality vet TE for a playoff run.

You also got smoked on that Tua/Ridley deal, I don't understand that at all.  Two guys for whom you paid premium trade-ups to get and you give them away for 12th rounders?  I'm guessing that's a panic move noticing (from my point above) you were short bodies and needed to take swings?  Ridley alone for Burrow/Winston/Kmet is bad but throwing in Tua is a killer. 

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
If you're going to trade up like this and give up value you gotta get throw-ins back on those attempts.  Giving up a 10th and a 12th for a 9th is fine if "your guy" is there (and I like the Shenault pick) but you gotta get back a pick.  As mentioned above, you lost too much value missing out on bullets.  You can't hit what you don't fire and even if it's a 20th rounder you gotta get those.  Maybe you get a bonus return like James Robinson or Jamison Crowder, maybe you get a Darnell Mooney that some rebuilder lusts after and gives you a quality vet TE for a playoff run.

You also got smoked on that Tua/Ridley deal, I don't understand that at all.  Two guys for whom you paid premium trade-ups to get and you give them away for 12th rounders?  I'm guessing that's a panic move noticing (from my point above) you were short bodies and needed to take swings?  Ridley alone for Burrow/Winston/Kmet is bad but throwing in Tua is a killer. 
In superflex Burrow is worth more than Ridley and it isn't really close. 

 

oukurt

Footballguy
In superflex Burrow is worth more than Ridley and it isn't really close. 
This

I think most would agree with this , in fact I would guess most dynasty SF leaguers would  say Burrow is more valuable than CR and Tua combined or at the very least Burrow is equal to Ridley and Tua in Dynasty SF.  
Personally, I would trade Ridley and Tua for Burrow 100% of the time in the SF format. When I was offered Burrow for  Ridley and Tua  PLUS his 11th and 12th rounder startup draft picks, that was a no brainer, IMO. I couldn’t click ACCEPT fast enough.

 
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oukurt

Footballguy
If you're going to trade up like this and give up value you gotta get throw-ins back on those attempts.  Giving up a 10th and a 12th for a 9th is fine if "your guy" is there (and I like the Shenault pick) but you gotta get back a pick.  As mentioned above, you lost too much value missing out on bullets.  You can't hit what you don't fire and even if it's a 20th rounder you gotta get those.  Maybe you get a bonus return like James Robinson or Jamison Crowder, maybe you get a Darnell Mooney that some rebuilder lusts after and gives you a quality vet TE for a playoff run.

You also got smoked on that Tua/Ridley deal, I don't understand that at all.  Two guys for whom you paid premium trade-ups to get and you give them away for 12th rounders?  I'm guessing that's a panic move noticing (from my point above) you were short bodies and needed to take swings?  Ridley alone for Burrow/Winston/Kmet is bad but throwing in Tua is a killer. 
Well I am ok trading away and getting nothing back after say round 9. I think you may agree that after round 9, you start seeing names that will end up on the waiver wire. I certainly am not worried about what I’m missing out on in rounds 20+. 
Watch the video and follow the host’s logic on “kicking the can” back another round. The diagrams make it easier to follow.  If you are able to make the suggested trades with this strategy you lose out on your 6th round pick. If you are ok trading a future rookie 1st,  you can get a 6th or 7th round pick in return. 
 

I would like to touch upon a couple of comments you mentioned, you claim that I paid a premium to trade up, I know that every trade was at -1% to -5% at the most. Hardly a premium, I see giving up a small % as a mere courtesy for accepting my trade offers .

Next, you and I have very different opinions in player value when it comes to dynasty SF. SF means you can start a 2nd QB each week. I think most people that play in these leagues would be 🙂 with landing Lance and Burrow as their QB 1 & 2. Some might be over the moon. 
Cmon do you truly believe I got “smoked” in this trade:

We The North gave up Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB; Ridley, Calvin ATL WR

POOPSLINGER gave up Burrow, Joe CIN QB; Year 2021 Draft Pick 11.02; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.11

If you still say YES, then YIKES. You are fully entitled to your opinion though. I think the majority would disagree with that opinion though. 
I would be willing to bet that if you plugged in the startup dynasty SF ADP of the players in this trade along with overall draft picks 122 and 143 (11.02 and 12.11)  into a trade calculator I am willing to bet I got an approximate +15% return on this trade alone. I don’t think trade calculators are the be-all, end all authority in determining the outcome of a trade, but I think it gives you a fair gauge.

At the end of the day, I think think this team I put together will go as well as Lance goes. If Lance develops into what many football minds far brighter than mine believe he can be as a starting NFL quarterback, I should be ok if I stay active on the waiver wire and hit on more prospective trades than miss. 
Should be fun.

 
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Just Win Baby

Footballguy
In superflex Burrow is worth more than Ridley and it isn't really close. 
This

I think most would agree with this , in fact I would guess most dynasty SF leaguers would  say Burrow is more valuable than CR and Tua combined or at the very least Burrow is equal to Ridley and Tua in Dynasty SF.  
Personally, I would trade Ridley and Tua for Burrow 100% of the time in the SF format. When I was offered Burrow for  Ridley and Tua  PLUS his 11th and 12th rounder startup draft picks, that was a no brainer, IMO. I couldn’t click ACCEPT fast enough.
Agree, but the full trade ended up being Ridley and Tua for Burrow, Winston, and Kmet. IMO Burrow > Ridley and Winston + Kmet > Tua. This trade was an easy win. It showed that way in the Hindery values I showed earlier, as well, though those values suggested it was close.

No way @oukurtgot "smoked" in this trade. Maybe @Hankmoodydidn't realize this was Superflex...? Otherwise, I'm at a loss to explain his take.

 

PantherThunder

Footballguy
The strategy is fine. I am just not sure you executed it the way you should have. 

Lance & Waddle have never played a down in the NFL

Tua isn't exactly a FF star, nor is Shenault yet

If your goal was to produce a 3-5 year power house I would think you would go for more established players. 

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
This

I think most would agree with this , in fact I would guess most dynasty SF leaguers would  say Burrow is more valuable than CR and Tua combined or at the very least Burrow is equal to Ridley and Tua in Dynasty SF.  
Personally, I would trade Ridley and Tua for Burrow 100% of the time in the SF format. When I was offered Burrow for  Ridley and Tua  PLUS his 11th and 12th rounder startup draft picks, that was a no brainer, IMO. I couldn’t click ACCEPT fast enough.
Yeah as I said I liked that trade for you. Not sure if Hank realizes how valuable these young promising QBs are in SF dynssty.

Burrow looked as good as advertised before he got hurt, and the scheme and weapons at his disposal very good as well. Defense or lack there of should force their passing attempts to be high.

 
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Hankmoody

Footballguy
Well I am ok trading away and getting nothing back after say round 9. I think you may agree that after round 9, you start seeing names that will end up on the waiver wire. I certainly am not worried about what I’m missing out on in rounds 20+. 
Watch the video and follow the host’s logic on “kicking the can” back another round. The diagrams make it easier to follow.  If you are able to make the suggested trades with this strategy you lose out on your 6th round pick. If you are ok trading a future rookie 1st,  you can get a 6th or 7th round pick in return. 
 

I would like to touch upon a couple of comments you mentioned, you claim that I paid a premium to trade up, I know that every trade was at -1% to -5% at the most. Hardly a premium, I see giving up a small % as a mere courtesy for accepting my trade offers .

Next, you and I have very different opinions in player value when it comes to dynasty SF. SF means you can start a 2nd QB each week. I think most people that play in these leagues would be 🙂 with landing Lance and Burrow as their QB 1 & 2. Some might be over the moon. 
Cmon do you truly believe I got “smoked” in this trade:

We The North gave up Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB; Ridley, Calvin ATL WR

POOPSLINGER gave up Burrow, Joe CIN QB; Year 2021 Draft Pick 11.02; Year 2021 Draft Pick 12.11

If you still say YES, then YIKES. You are fully entitled to your opinion though. I think the majority would disagree with that opinion though. 
I would be willing to bet that if you plugged in the startup dynasty SF ADP of the players in this trade along with overall draft picks 122 and 143 (11.02 and 12.11)  into a trade calculator I am willing to bet I got an approximate +15% return on this trade alone. I don’t think trade calculators are the be-all, end all authority in determining the outcome of a trade, but I think it gives you a fair gauge.

At the end of the day, I think think this team I put together will go as well as Lance goes. If Lance develops into what many football minds far brighter than mine believe he can be as a starting NFL quarterback, I should be ok if I stay active on the waiver wire and hit on more prospective trades than miss. 
Should be fun.
I didn't catch the superflex part so maybe not smoked but I still wouldn't take Burrow over Ridley straight up.  I'm surprised Burrow is ranked that high, no way for me.  He doesn't run enough and that offense is going to have to take a huge step up to convince me he's a top 10 guy.  I get that there's a huge premium at the QB position so maybe this is just a name issue and a different QB might change my mind on this.

I wasn't using "paying premium" as a pejoritive, just noting you gave two picks for one that, in some cases, wasn't a large tier upgrade.  That's fine, you have to do that to move up and your partners would be idiots not to require it, but my point was get those throw-ins coming back.  Yes, some of those guys will be waiver fodder, but some won't.  And when you're giving up an 8 and 10 for a 7 you'll find that your partners don't mind much at all to toss you back a later pick like a 13-14.  Get those bodies and swing the bat was my only point.  It wasn't a criticism of you specifically, more of a comment on the overall strategy.

 

oukurt

Footballguy
The strategy is fine. I am just not sure you executed it the way you should have. 

Lance & Waddle have never played a down in the NFL

Tua isn't exactly a FF star, nor is Shenault yet

If your goal was to produce a 3-5 year power house I would think you would go for more established players. 
I won’t argue with this logic, in fact if you look back on the earlier posts around June 20-21  of this thread, I agreed with biabreakable that this strategy could best be used by drafting proven players in a full blown/win now attack draft style. However,  I just could not help myself ftom drafting some of my favorite rookies and 2nd year players like JT, Lance, Lamb, Waddle, and Shenault. Something about drafting in these types of leagues that makes drafting youth just feel right, makes it feel like you are building with a purpose, while drafting like this was my dad’s redraft league of 20 years ago, just feels not so sexy. HA!

 My next attempt at this I’m gong to TRY and stay away from so much drafting of rookies/youth and see how it turns out. Then again, the dynasty purist in me may just take over again.
Thanks for the input. 

 
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oukurt

Footballguy
I didn't catch the superflex part so maybe not smoked but I still wouldn't take Burrow over Ridley straight up.  I'm surprised Burrow is ranked that high, no way for me.  He doesn't run enough and that offense is going to have to take a huge step up to convince me he's a top 10 guy.  I get that there's a huge premium at the QB position so maybe this is just a name issue and a different QB might change my mind on this.

I wasn't using "paying premium" as a pejoritive, just noting you gave two picks for one that, in some cases, wasn't a large tier upgrade.  That's fine, you have to do that to move up and your partners would be idiots not to require it, but my point was get those throw-ins coming back.  Yes, some of those guys will be waiver fodder, but some won't.  And when you're giving up an 8 and 10 for a 7 you'll find that your partners don't mind much at all to toss you back a later pick like a 13-14.  Get those bodies and swing the bat was my only point.  It wasn't a criticism of you specifically, more of a comment on the overall strategy.
I believe that if I was asking for a draft pick in return on the back end, no matter how much further back, it would hurt the chances of me getting the trade done. I also just don’t see the value of getting a draft pick back even if it’s 10 rounds later. The chance of that pick connecting would be slim and none and slim just left the building. 
If you can’t make the trades at each juncture, the strategy falls flat. I  am just fine giving up the 2 for 1s as long as I am “kicking the can back” to the next round with the scheduled trade. It wasn’t easy to commit 100% to all of this, but I wanted to try this as it is drawn up by the  strategist in his “Art of Trading Up” strategy video. 
This is a 100% no half measures strategy. In fact when I wasn’t able to get trade #1 completed I considered scrapping the whole experiment. This team would have been that much better if I had been able to trade up into the late 1st/ early 2nd round with my 3rd & 5th packaged. We just have a difference of opinion. Finley is  an elite WR, but he just doesn’t hold near the value of a Burrow in SF leagues, IMO.

 
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