Aging RBs (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

So I made the decision last summer before the drafts for my redraft leagues to avoid the aging RBs for the most part. It worked out for the best in basically every circumstance with the exception of Thomas Jones. I want to look back at what we could have known before the season began. Could you have predicted before the season started how the older RBs around the league would perform?

I'm just going to group them loosely, and not use some arbitrary criteria like 30 years or X number of career rushing attempts. In rough order of ADP last summer:

Ladainian Tomlinson - This guy was probably the biggest disappointment of the group based on his high draft position. Some people considered in the 1.05 range, and he usually didn't fall much past 1.12. BUT all the warning signs were there. His YPC fell from 4.7 in 2007 to 3.8 in 2008. The biggest LT defense last summer was basically "well he regressed and he's not the uber-stud he once was, but he still finished near the top 10 RBs because of TDs and receptions." Sure enough, this year he scored double digit TDs, but YPC fell further to 3.3 and receptions dropped from 52 to 20. 224 rushes, 730 yards, 20 receptions, 12 total TDs. Finished with 174 points in PPR, equal to RB24. Basically, if you took LT in the first round, I doubt you made the playoffs.

Brian Westbrook - There was a lot of uncertainty last summer due to his ankle surgery that caused him to miss most of training camp. Not to mention the fact that the Eagles draft McCoy. However, towards the end of training camp, there seemed to be some optimism that he could return to form and was a reasonable gamble in the mid-2nd to mid-third round. Of course, he ended up being a major disappointment and missing lots of time. But was this something you could've seen coming? He missed time due to injury, but I'm not sure it was due to age/wear as was clearly the case with LT. Concussions can be suffered by young or players. Maybe he suffered the concussions because he was one-half step slower and couldn't avoid the hits? I don't know. His year end stats were a MAJOR disappointment, but in the first two games he actually looked like you might get a decent RB2/RB3 in PPR. In those two games, he had 4.5 ypc on 26 total carries, 3 receptions in each game, and scored a TD... about 13 points per game in PPR. Not great, but reasonable. And if healthy, he could've improved on those stats as he regained his game speed/conditioning. But maybe he wouldn't have ever regained that speed he once had.

This is one where I just don't know... the concussions, the ankle... I know it's a small sample size, but if he had maintained the stats from the first 2 games for the whole season, he would've scored about 200 points in PPR, somewhere in the neighborhod RB16-18. That would've slightly underperformed his ADP. As it stands with time missed, Westbrook actually finished as RB57. Ouch.

Clinton Portis - doesn't really qualify as an aging RB at age 28, but he was in that group in my mind before the season started. With him, it wasn't so much a question of age as tread on the tires. Aside from his injury shortened 2006, the fewest number of rushing attempts he had in a single season was his rookie year at 273. Also had 300+ attempt seasons in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008. I'm not sure if there's something you can point to and say Portis was ineffective due to age or tread issues. Before shutting it down, Portis averaged 4.0 ypc, but the Redskins as a team averaged 3.9 for the year on 391 total rush attempts (including QB scrambles, sneaks, WR runs, etc). Portis only had 2 TDs in about half a season before he was shut down. So was it a case of offensive ineptitude or losing a step? Possibly both? In any case, he was a major bust in the mid-2nd to mid-3rd. Before the injury, he averaged about 11 ppg in essentially 7 games. If he had maintained that pace for 16 games, somewhere around RB25.

Some football outsider metrics would be useful to further evaluate Portis. In any case, the tread issue coupled with the Redskin's offensive problems were enough for me to avoid him.

Thomas Jones - this is where I was dead wrong. All the warning signs were there, or so I thought. 31 years old. While his YPC was excellent in 2008 (4.5), it was the common assumption that this was the Favre effect. Rookie QB. Emerging/explosive playmaker in Leon Washington who was expected to get 200 offensive touches. Drafted a similar RB in the third round. Honestly, what was there to like? How could you have known he would rush for 1400 yards and 14 TDs? He was one of the best steals of the draft in both 2008 and 2009. Finished as RB9 in PPR.So what was there to be seen if only you could? Well, he is sort of known as a 'workout guy' who takes amazing care of his body. He didn't get much action his first 4 years in the league, never going over 200 carries. The Jets have a pretty solid O-line and a great run-blocking FB in Tony Richardson. A rookie QB necessitates running the ball a lot. Rex Ryan had the blue-print from the Ravens in 2008 with a 3 headed RB monster.

Honestly, though, I think 10-25% of his success was due to the loss of Leon Washington. Before that injury, Jones had games of 14, 14, 13, and 13 rushes, while after the injury essentially had has more than 20 in every game (1 exception of 19). And Shonn Greene, for whatever reason, was slow to emerge until the playoffs. But at his ADP, TJones was a pretty reasonable gamble in the 5th-6th rounds.

The bottom line is that it's a huge risk to take an aging RB with major risk factors in the 1st and 2nd rounds. But when it comes to the 5th round ballpark, the risk is somewhat mitigated. Consider other 5th round RBs according to FFC: Lynch, Addai, LJ, Bush, TJones, FWP. If you swing and miss in the first or second round, it can be a season breaker. If you swing and miss in the 5th or 6th, it's a set back but it probably didn't ruin your season.

There are other RBs who could be a part of this conversation, and for the most part, it's not pretty: LJ, Jamal Lewis, Willie Parker. Edge? While on the one hand, it's a minor risk to draft these guys in the 5th+ round, you could miss out on some major talent such as Addai, Benson, Moreno, Mendenhall, etc.

I think this year will be sort of an end of an era. Next year, none of these guys - who have been major names in fantasy for several years - will be drafted in the first several rounds. There may or may not be a next year's crop of aging RBs to consider in the first 5 rounds.

Questions for the shark pool: looking back on your redrafts from last summer, what did you hit on and what did you miss when it comes to RBs with major question marks due to age/injury concerns/ or tread? If you were duped into drafting one of them, why? And do you think there was something you could've considered that would've steered you clear?

Finally, what are the RBs to consider in this conversation for next year?

 

[Couch Potato]

Some are done at 29, some are done at 33. There are averages and tendencies, but no one individual wears out or ages exactly like another. Genetics, conditioning, contract status, who is or is not on the bench waiting to take over, etc. all factor in.

Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones did fine. Tiki Barber and Emmit Smith and Curtis Martin were productive beyond where others have stopped.

It would be great if there was a hard and fast rule, but there isn't. I've studied player aging quite a bit, even developed and use a formula I call Quality Years Remaining, or QYR, (you can do a thread search here for it, it's a couple years old now) to track a player's likely end point. I come up with an average of about 31.5 for stud RBs by the way, not 30 as many want to use simply because it's a round number.

And I don't believe it's touches that age a player. Age ages a player, makes him slower, and that small difference is enough to turn a 4.5 YPC guy into a 3.5 YPC guy, and he's through.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Some are done at 29, some are done at 33. There are averages and tendencies, but no one individual wears out or ages exactly like another. Genetics, conditioning, contract status, who is or is not on the bench waiting to take over, etc. all factor in.

Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones did fine. Tiki Barber and Emmit Smith and Curtis Martin were productive beyond where others have stopped.

It would be great if there was a hard and fast rule, but there isn't. I've studied player aging quite a bit, even developed and use a formula I call Quality Years Remaining, or QYR, (you can do a thread search here for it, it's a couple years old now) to track a player's likely end point. I come up with an average of about 31.5 for stud RBs by the way, not 30 as many want to use simply because it's a round number.

And I don't believe it's touches that age a player. Age ages a player, makes him slower, and that small difference is enough to turn a 4.5 YPC guy into a 3.5 YPC guy, and he's through.

You have to watch the players play, that is what it comes down to. I am a numbers guy, I think that gives me an edge over non-numbers guys, but what you see on the field matters much more.

Accumulated injuries play into it as well.

 

[SSOG]

The bottom line is that it's a huge risk to take an aging RB with major risk factors in the 1st and 2nd rounds. But when it comes to the 5th round ballpark, the risk is somewhat mitigated. Consider other 5th round RBs according to FFC: Lynch, Addai, LJ, Bush, TJones, FWP. If you swing and miss in the first or second round, it can be a season breaker. If you swing and miss in the 5th or 6th, it's a set back but it probably didn't ruin your season.

It sounds like you subscribe to the age-old adage that you can't win your fantasy league in the first round, but you certainly can lose it. Personally, I think that's bunk. I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year. Grabbing Tomlinson in the first hurt, no doubt, but no more than grabbing Turner, Forte, SJax, Calvin, or Brady would have. Almost half of all high draft picks bust, so if the guy you draft high winds up busting, that doesn't lose you the league, it just puts you on even footing with half of your leaguemates.Tomlinson was a disappointment, but he was still a very high quality fantasy asset this season. He missed time to injuries, but it's not like his owner was forced to take a 0 those weeks. From week 6 (Tomlinson's return) to week 16 (the fantasy superbowl), Tomlinson was fantasy RB10. There were much worse things you could have done than drafting Tomlinson in the first. I know in my dynasty league where I acquired him on the super-cheap I was basically able to start a second RB1 as my RB2 for the stretch run.

 

[Tanner9919]

Some are done at 29, some are done at 33. There are averages and tendencies, but no one individual wears out or ages exactly like another. Genetics, conditioning, contract status, who is or is not on the bench waiting to take over, etc. all factor in.

Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones did fine. Tiki Barber and Emmit Smith and Curtis Martin were productive beyond where others have stopped.

It would be great if there was a hard and fast rule, but there isn't. I've studied player aging quite a bit, even developed and use a formula I call Quality Years Remaining, or QYR, (you can do a thread search here for it, it's a couple years old now) to track a player's likely end point. I come up with an average of about 31.5 for stud RBs by the way, not 30 as many want to use simply because it's a round number.

And I don't believe it's touches that age a player. Age ages a player, makes him slower, and that small difference is enough to turn a 4.5 YPC guy into a 3.5 YPC guy, and he's through.

:( You have to watch the players play, that is what it comes down to. I am a numbers guy, I think that gives me an edge over non-numbers guys, but what you see on the field matters much more.

Accumulated injuries play into it as well.

also comes down to who has the best O-line.

Jets do.

PHilly , Redskins not so much.

 

[karmarooster]

Wow, Ricky Williams is an EXCELLENT example that I completely forgot in the OP. I guess he was so far down the ADP list I never got there. Talk about steal of the draft.

Anyways, I am hesitant to put a number on a player, be it 30 or 31.5 or what have you. I think each potential breaking-down RB should be considered on a case-by-case basis.

I made a blanket statement before the season began to avoid any RB i thought of as an risk due to age, injury, or mileage concerns. On the whole, it worked out, as my 9 teams didn't have LT, Westbrook, Portis, FWP, Jamal.... but also didn't have TJones or Ricky.

FWIW, my first round choices across 9 leagues: MJD, Sjax, Sjax, Chris Johnson, DWill, Brady, Moss, Calvin, and Gore. The only times i really shot myself in the foot were in the three leagues I drafted either a QB or a WR. Sure enough, in those 3 leagues I missed the playoffs, while i made the playoffs in every other league.

So who are the older RBs you might avoid next year, and who are the ones who might be steals like Jones and Ricky?

 

[JJP]

It should be pointed out that Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber and Ricky Williams all had at least one year of little activity in their careers so they didn't take the pounding of a guy like Tomlinson. As for backs like Payton, Emmitt Smith or Curtis Martin, they just defied logic.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

If I learned anything by drafting Portis as a RB2 this year, it's to avoid older running backs in the future.

Yes there are exceptions, but it's not worth the risk if there are younger options available.

 

[Joe T]

Finally, what are the RBs to consider in this conversation for next year?

It's a good question. I think the better question is when will they retire, change teams, move to second string etc... to make way for what are likely to be some of the high value guys in next years draft.One or more of these guys will be huge value: McCoy, Sproles, Shonn Greene, etc.I like all three of them, probably in that order to have huge upsides next year.

 

[Kiddnets]

Autcion league so a bit different but I won it all with a backfield trio of LT, Portis and TJ - it helped that with the savings at RB I drafted AJ, Wayne and D Clark - If you survived LTs awful start you were paid back with his end of the season TD run!

 

[Joe T]

So who are the older RBs you might avoid next year, and who are the ones who might be steals like Jones and Ricky?

Marion Barber and Michael Turner are the next two that come to mind.Although they don't fit in the "older" group they are getting abused out there and injury prone. They will likely be overvalued going into the 2010 drafts.

 

[jackdubl]

My fantasy philosophy has always been build around two solid and YOUNG-ISH running backs. Thomas Jones was the exception to the rule this year, and you could have drafted Ray Rice in the same round as Jones went or later. Had Portis last season and saw him just wear down. There's more young guys who come out of nowhere(Charles, Harrison, Rice, Mendenhall) in any given season than there are proven 30+ year olds that keep it up.

 

[karmarooster]

So who are the older RBs you might avoid next year, and who are the ones who might be steals like Jones and Ricky?

Marion Barber and Michael Turner are the next two that come to mind.Although they don't fit in the "older" group they are getting abused out there and injury prone. They will likely be overvalued going into the 2010 drafts.

Marion Barber was the guy who I thought of as well, because it seems that this year he has visibly regressed, but looking at his numbers it's harder to see. His YPC this season was 4.4, compared to his career figure of 4.3. But it's kind of all over the place... 2006 and 2007 it was a nice 4.8, and then in 2008 it dropped down to 3.7. But 4.4 is a pretty healthy figure... until you compare it to Jones and Choice (5.9 and 5.5). His receptions also went way down to 26, compared to 44 and 52 the previous two years. Really it's all about his low TD mark. He had fewer TDs this year (7) than any other year besides his rookie season (5). In his previous 4 seasons, he averaged a TD every 19.9 rushing attempts. This season that figure went up to 30.5. Now it's difficult to say if that is due to fewer goal line opportunities or a decline in goal line effectiveness. I'll need to see the Football Outsider stats to know. I would guess both. For some reason, Barber just doesn't look like the same RB, even tho his YPC is good enough. It may have been a nagging injury that he had throughout the season. If that's the case, he could be ready to bounce back next year. Barber's problem this year was that he was overvalued at the end of the 2nd round in a backfield with 2 other talented RBs. There was production to be had in that backfield, but it was spread too thin. Barber, Jones, and Choice combined for: 394 carries, 1966 yards, 13 TDs, 81 receptions, and 657 yards. I don't think Barber was utilized as effective as he could've been this year. It's plain to see he's at his best in the 4th quarter, just before halftime, and on the goal line. I wouldn't use him any other time. If he sinks down next year the 4th-5th+ range, he might be worth taking, esp. if the backfield situation clears up a bit (they deal Choice or Jones). But I think it's very possible Barber plays for a new team next year, and who knows if he'll be as effective behind a smaller and/or lesser offensive line. He's really a luxury RB3, and not a RB2. Turner tho? He's got a year and three-quarters of wear. If he falls next year, he's a major value in the 2nd round.

 

[Joe T]

Turner tho? He's got a year and three-quarters of wear. If he falls next year, he's a major value in the 2nd round.

He's not going to go in the second though.And even if he did, I don't think he's a major value there.

 

[BespokeJort]

The bottom line is that it's a huge risk to take an aging RB with major risk factors in the 1st and 2nd rounds. But when it comes to the 5th round ballpark, the risk is somewhat mitigated. Consider other 5th round RBs according to FFC: Lynch, Addai, LJ, Bush, TJones, FWP. If you swing and miss in the first or second round, it can be a season breaker. If you swing and miss in the 5th or 6th, it's a set back but it probably didn't ruin your season.

It sounds like you subscribe to the age-old adage that you can't win your fantasy league in the first round, but you certainly can lose it. Personally, I think that's bunk. I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year. Grabbing Tomlinson in the first hurt, no doubt, but no more than grabbing Turner, Forte, SJax, Calvin, or Brady would have. Almost half of all high draft picks bust, so if the guy you draft high winds up busting, that doesn't lose you the league, it just puts you on even footing with half of your leaguemates.Tomlinson was a disappointment, but he was still a very high quality fantasy asset this season. He missed time to injuries, but it's not like his owner was forced to take a 0 those weeks. From week 6 (Tomlinson's return) to week 16 (the fantasy superbowl), Tomlinson was fantasy RB10. There were much worse things you could have done than drafting Tomlinson in the first. I know in my dynasty league where I acquired him on the super-cheap I was basically able to start a second RB1 as my RB2 for the stretch run.

I agree you CAN win your league in the first round by going for broke rather than taking the 'safe' pick, but the key there is typically with drafting enigmatic talents, high risk, high-reward guys who could really blow up (CJ3 would have fit here). There, the risk of him fizzling, being stuck in committee, or getting injured is justified by his ridiculous upside.Where I disagree with you is whether a player like LT or Westbrook fits in this category of high-risk, high-reward. Watching them the past couple years, it was relatively evident that they're not the LT/Westbrook of a couple years back--there's a large margin between thinking they're "done" and thinking they have any chance of blowing up and running away with the league ala CJ3 this year, Deangelo last year, LT2/Shaun Alexander/Priest Holmes/even Manning or Brady a few years back. Even if they haven't lost a step and don't have any health issues, chances a coach is going to feed a 30 year old back the carries necessary to have that sort of a season are relatively slim. I don't have any numbers to support this, but when was the last time a 29+ back was RB1 by more than 30 or so points in a standard system? That's the kind of upside you're looking for when you pick a guy with the downside that these guys had coming into this year.A guy like LT2 or Westbrook could have easily finished as a top-8 or so running back and I wouldn't have been surprised at all. But drafting them at 1.05 this past year would have been paying for him at his upside. There was zero chance IMO that the guy was gonna be the sort of "RB1 by a longshot" types that justify a dramatically increased risk in the first round. A move like that can easily lose you your league in the first round, but can't win it for you--Give me a guy like Gore ahead of him all day long.

Wow, Ricky Williams is an EXCELLENT example that I completely forgot in the OP. I guess he was so far down the ADP list I never got there. Talk about steal of the draft.Anyways, I am hesitant to put a number on a player, be it 30 or 31.5 or what have you. I think each potential breaking-down RB should be considered on a case-by-case basis.I made a blanket statement before the season began to avoid any RB i thought of as an risk due to age, injury, or mileage concerns. On the whole, it worked out, as my 9 teams didn't have LT, Westbrook, Portis, FWP, Jamal.... but also didn't have TJones or Ricky. FWIW, my first round choices across 9 leagues: MJD, Sjax, Sjax, Chris Johnson, DWill, Brady, Moss, Calvin, and Gore. The only times i really shot myself in the foot were in the three leagues I drafted either a QB or a WR. Sure enough, in those 3 leagues I missed the playoffs, while i made the playoffs in every other league. So who are the older RBs you might avoid next year, and who are the ones who might be steals like Jones and Ricky?

With a first rounder, I'm happy to play the odds and avoid a strategy that is successful 2 out of 7 times. As we get into later picks, it is much more reasonable to swing for the fences on one of these guys. Picking Ricky at his ADP was good process--IMO Thomas Jones at his (in redraft, dyno startups would be another matter) was bad process, regardless of the result.

 

[Obie Wan]

If I learned anything by drafting Portis as a RB2 this year, it's to avoid older running backs in the future.Yes there are exceptions, but it's not worth the risk if there are younger options available.

what you should have learned is just don't draft Portis

 

[FantasyTrader]

I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year.

You and I usually line up really well in our philosophy but it's been awhile since I've read anything so silly on here. I've never seen, experienced or heard about a 1st round pick winning a league. Grab any championship team with Johnson on the roster from last year, post the beginning and season ending roster he was on and I'll show you a minimum of two to three trades, waiver pickups or later round draft picks that impacted that team's fate more when you factor in production relative to cost.

 

[BigTex]

Portis may only be 28 but he's taken a ponding for eight straight years. At this point throw age out the door because wear&tear trumps age.

 

[SSOG]

I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year.

You and I usually line up really well in our philosophy but it's been awhile since I've read anything so silly on here. I've never seen, experienced or heard about a 1st round pick winning a league. Grab any championship team with Johnson on the roster from last year, post the beginning and season ending roster he was on and I'll show you a minimum of two to three trades, waiver pickups or later round draft picks that impacted that team's fate more when you factor in production relative to cost.

Chris Johnson was worth 197 VBD this season. Tony Romo (54 VBD), Rashard Mendenhall (35 VBD), Cedric Benson (22 VBD), Robert Meachem (25 VBD), Mike Sims-Walker (19 VBD), Percy Harvin (19 VBD), and Brent Celek (36 VBD) combined for 210 VBD. Basically, Chris Johnson + a ton of replacement level scores about the same as a team full of late-round steals. One great first round pick did as much to win your league as SEVEN great late-round picks. If you want to talk about studs, then Chris Johnson alone was worth as much as Ray Rice (RB4, 105 VBD) and Randy Moss (WR2, 92 VBD) combined. Yes, one pick can win you your league.

 

[Rovers]

On this message board I started a threrad about Jones during FF draft time, calling him the most under valued player... OK, that was an over statement, but I was trying to make a point. People were over valuing Greene and Washington. Who expected Washington to get 200 touches? It wasn't me, that's for sure. It was simple really. Jones never looks exciting, but would the Jets go with two rookies in the starting backfield? Greene would be a non factor with Sanchez starting. Jones is a solid blocker and pass receiver. Ryan was going to run, run and run some more. He said so, many times over.

I thought Jones might see a dip in production, but sites had him falling off a cliff... wasn't gonna happen. With more touches to go around, I figured Jones would not see a reduction in touches. Now people are jumping on Greene for next year. Jones will be written off again. There have been murmurs that the Jets CS think Jones was getting tired legs, but a little known fact was that Jones all of a sudden was playing with a knee brace last week.

You are mistaken if you think the Washington injury boosted Jone's numbers. I has a $ bet (on another board) that Jones would finish top 15. The guy I bet with said the same thing. Fact is, Jones' numbers for the next 6 weeks after the Washington injury actually went down. Part of that was SoS, part of it was reduced touches due to the sheer number of turnovers Sanchez had.

Looking at next year, I again do not expect to see Jones fall off a cliff. Greene seems have gotten better at ball protection, but until he can show he can hang onto the ball... Jones almost NEVER fumbles. Greene also has to improve on his blocking and pass catching. How fast he develops will have a big affect on Jones next year. Greene also has not shown he is durable enough yet to carry the load. As a part time player, he got dinged up a lot.

As for the other RB's you mentioned, I stayed away from them. Even if LT had a lot left in the tank, SD was going to be a passing team. Washington was not going to be a good team, strike Portis.

In short, you have to not only look at an aging RB's numbers and carries, but the team situation. If you did that, you would have known Jones was going to be a good value pick. All the ingredients were there. A very good O line. A HC that was going to run a lot with a rookie QB that wasn't going to be orchestrating an aerail attack. A good defense that would keep games close and not be forced to throw and play catch-up.

These are the very reasons I was high on Ray Rice going into 2009. Young QB, good defense, run oriented offense with a O line that can run block. Both Portis and LT showed signs of breaking down in 2008. Jones did not. Now, there is a hint that Jones may be wearing down too. Same for R Williams after the Brown injury. He was not holding up. Those are the warning signs.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

If I learned anything by drafting Portis as a RB2 this year, it's to avoid older running backs in the future.Yes there are exceptions, but it's not worth the risk if there are younger options available.

what you should have learned is just don't draft Portis

The Force is weak in this one.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

You are mistaken if you think the Washington injury boosted Jone's numbers. I has a $ bet (on another board) that Jones would finish top 15. The guy I bet with said the same thing. Fact is, Jones' numbers for the next 6 weeks after the Washington injury actually went down. Part of that was SoS, part of it was reduced touches due to the sheer number of turnovers Sanchez had.

Weeks 1-6: Jones averaged 16 carries per game (when Washington was playing)Weeks 7-17: Jones averaged 23.5 carries per game (after Washington got hurt; technically he got hurt early in week 7)

 

[FantasyTrader]

I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year.

You and I usually line up really well in our philosophy but it's been awhile since I've read anything so silly on here. I've never seen, experienced or heard about a 1st round pick winning a league. Grab any championship team with Johnson on the roster from last year, post the beginning and season ending roster he was on and I'll show you a minimum of two to three trades, waiver pickups or later round draft picks that impacted that team's fate more when you factor in production relative to cost.

Chris Johnson was worth 197 VBD this season. Tony Romo (54 VBD), Rashard Mendenhall (35 VBD), Cedric Benson (22 VBD), Robert Meachem (25 VBD), Mike Sims-Walker (19 VBD), Percy Harvin (19 VBD), and Brent Celek (36 VBD) combined for 210 VBD. Basically, Chris Johnson + a ton of replacement level scores about the same as a team full of late-round steals. One great first round pick did as much to win your league as SEVEN great late-round picks. If you want to talk about studs, then Chris Johnson alone was worth as much as Ray Rice (RB4, 105 VBD) and Randy Moss (WR2, 92 VBD) combined. Yes, one pick can win you your league.

I don't know what a VBD is or how you calculate it but if you're using a "system" that tells you selecting C.J. with a 1st round pick is the equivelant of seven great late round picks - I'd throw that system off the nearest ledge. Flat out common sense tells me it's not true. And that's with Johnson having a season for the ages.ETA: Sorry we went off-topic rooster. Back to the aging RB discussion.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Ronnie Brown is a guy getting up there in age with some injuries who could disappoint owners next year.

MBIII will only be 27 next year, and hasn't taken quite the pounding that someone like Portis has in his career, so I wouldn't be so quick to write him off (at least because of age/workload) so quickly.

 

[Silver & Black]

To quote Indiana Jones: "It's not the years, its the mileage"

 

[fightingillini]

Looking back, I missed on LT....while I didn't expect all-world LT, I did expect solid RB1 production...since SD has a great offense...and he failed. I learned that a drastic drop in YPC is a good indication of slowing down.....I wanted to believe that it was due to LT being nicked up last year. Luckily I traded him in a 3 for 3 deal that nabbed me Ricky Williams, right before R Brown went down. I followed my LT pick by picking up high upside RBs later like Rice, Moreno, D Brown, and J Charles. So I was banking on some solid with somewhat less upside and combining it with multiple RBs with high upside.

I did stay away from Thomas Jones, but it wasn't necessarily his age......I thought the NYJ backfield was going to be crowded.

So taking a older, high mileage RB in the first two rounds is somewhat a risk. And I agree with SSOG in that you can win the league with your 1st round pick (CJ had a season for the ages), as well as you can't necessarily lose it with a busted 1st round pick. I won my league despite drafting LT in the 1st and Bowe in the 3rd, both busts.

 

[Futeki]

Ronnie Brown is a guy getting up there in age with some injuries who could disappoint owners next year.

MBIII will only be 27 next year, and hasn't taken quite the pounding that someone like Portis has in his career, so I wouldn't be so quick to write him off (at least because of age/workload) so quickly.

So Ronnie Brown is "getting up there in age" while MBIII will only be 27 next year. The two are less than 18 months apart.The talent level of Brown compared to MBIII easily makes up the marginal difference in age.

 

[SSOG]

I don't know what a VBD is or how you calculate it but if you're using a "system" that tells you selecting C.J. with a 1st round pick is the equivelant of seven great late round picks - I'd throw that system off the nearest ledge. Flat out common sense tells me it's not true. And that's with Johnson having a season for the ages.

VBD has been kicking "flat out common sense"s ### for almost a decade now. VBD is the whole principal that FBGs was founded on, the principal that all of its tools (Draft Dominator, Projections Dominator, Lineup Dominator, etc) run on. To boil it down simply, VBD is the difference between the points a guy scored, and the points that the worst starter at that position scored.To give an example... let's say Peyton Manning scored 50 points a game and Chris Johnson scored 20. Which is better? Well, if an average QB scored 48 points a game, and an average RB scored 10 points a game, Chris Johnson was better. Chris Johnson + Average QB = 68 points. Peyton Manning + Average RB = 60 points. VBD is the reason why a TE that scores 150 points is worth more than a WR who scores 160 points, or why an RB that scores 300 points is worth more than a QB that scores 350. VBD is essentially a measure of the difference between a guy and some random scrub who you could get for essentially no cost and start in his place.Let's put it this way. Ray Rice + Randy Moss scored 456. Chris Johnson + Austin Collie scored 457. CJ + Housh scored 456. CJ + Santana Moss scored 456. In other words, CJ + (total WR bust who you could have purchased for a bright shiny penny) scored as many points as the #4 RB in the league and the #2 WR in the league COMBINED. In the same way, Chris Johnson and an army of scrubs and busts (Jay Cutler, Tim Hightower, Terrell Owens, Mario Manningham, Housh, John Carlson) would have scored as many fantasy points as that army of late-round steals I mentioned in my last post. Seriously, do the math yourself- Romo/Mendenhall/Benson/Meachem/Sims-Walker/Harvin/Celek combined for 1228 points this year. Cutler/Johnson/Hightower/Owens/Manningham/Housh/Carlson combined for 1222 points. So there's your proof that a team with Chris Johnson and a bunch of scrubs and afterthoughts would have scored just a well as a team of late-round steals. So much for "flat out common sense".

 

[Rovers]

You are mistaken if you think the Washington injury boosted Jone's numbers. I has a $ bet (on another board) that Jones would finish top 15. The guy I bet with said the same thing. Fact is, Jones' numbers for the next 6 weeks after the Washington injury actually went down. Part of that was SoS, part of it was reduced touches due to the sheer number of turnovers Sanchez had.

Weeks 1-6: Jones averaged 16 carries per game (when Washington was playing)Weeks 7-17: Jones averaged 23.5 carries per game (after Washington got hurt; technically he got hurt early in week 7)

Jones averaged 14.65 FF points in a 0.5PPR scoring sytem in weeks 1 through 6. Then Washington got hurt early in week seven. Over the next six games, Jones averaged 14.2. His FF production went down after the Washington injury. Those are the facts... now one could argue the how's and why's, but those are the numbers.

 

[Texasmouth]

I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year.

You and I usually line up really well in our philosophy but it's been awhile since I've read anything so silly on here. I've never seen, experienced or heard about a 1st round pick winning a league. Grab any championship team with Johnson on the roster from last year, post the beginning and season ending roster he was on and I'll show you a minimum of two to three trades, waiver pickups or later round draft picks that impacted that team's fate more when you factor in production relative to cost.

Totally agree. I played in two championship games and none of the four teams involved had CJ. I picked up Garcon and Collie off the waiver wire and that helped. I drafted Steve Slaton and Dang-alow Williams in one league and ended up winning the league because of trading and waiver wire. I finished the season with Tim Hightower as my RB1 and Garcon as my WR2. I had Ricky Williams who I stole late in the draft and stashed.

 

[FantasyTrader]

VBD has been kicking "flat out common sense"s ### for almost a decade now. VBD is the whole principal that FBGs was founded on, the principal that all of its tools (Draft Dominator, Projections Dominator, Lineup Dominator, etc) run on. To boil it down simply, VBD is the difference between the points a guy scored, and the points that the worst starter at that position scored.To give an example... let's say Peyton Manning scored 50 points a game and Chris Johnson scored 20. Which is better? Well, if an average QB scored 48 points a game, and an average RB scored 10 points a game, Chris Johnson was better. Chris Johnson + Average QB = 68 points. Peyton Manning + Average RB = 60 points. VBD is the reason why a TE that scores 150 points is worth more than a WR who scores 160 points, or why an RB that scores 300 points is worth more than a QB that scores 350. VBD is essentially a measure of the difference between a guy and some random scrub who you could get for essentially no cost and start in his place.Let's put it this way. Ray Rice + Randy Moss scored 456. Chris Johnson + Austin Collie scored 457. CJ + Housh scored 456. CJ + Santana Moss scored 456. In other words, CJ + (total WR bust who you could have purchased for a bright shiny penny) scored as many points as the #4 RB in the league and the #2 WR in the league COMBINED. In the same way, Chris Johnson and an army of scrubs and busts (Jay Cutler, Tim Hightower, Terrell Owens, Mario Manningham, Housh, John Carlson) would have scored as many fantasy points as that army of late-round steals I mentioned in my last post. Seriously, do the math yourself- Romo/Mendenhall/Benson/Meachem/Sims-Walker/Harvin/Celek combined for 1228 points this year. Cutler/Johnson/Hightower/Owens/Manningham/Housh/Carlson combined for 1222 points. So there's your proof that a team with Chris Johnson and a bunch of scrubs and afterthoughts would have scored just a well as a team of late-round steals. So much for "flat out common sense".

Your tone is very condescending. I know what Value Based Drafting is, I was being facetious. You just lost me when you started spitting out the numbers. I'm not debating that CJ was a very valuable player last year - just that he singlehandedly won championships. By the very nature of the fact that he was selected on average at 1.07 makes it wrong. Ray Rice scored 68.9 fewer FP than CJ in ppr (4.05/week) and did it with an ADP down in the 5th round. I could be wrong, but I have an extremely hard time believing that CJ at pick 1.07 offered more value than landing Rice somewhere in the 5th. We also need to account for where you had to draft a player in order to roster him. Which kinda emcompasses why I think the whole "First round picks can win you championships" is bunk. The guy has to be exponentially better than players who were had several rounds later but finished in the top 3-5 at their respective positions.

 

[rock753]

Some are done at 29, some are done at 33. There are averages and tendencies, but no one individual wears out or ages exactly like another. Genetics, conditioning, contract status, who is or is not on the bench waiting to take over, etc. all factor in.

Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones did fine. Tiki Barber and Emmit Smith and Curtis Martin were productive beyond where others have stopped.

It would be great if there was a hard and fast rule, but there isn't. I've studied player aging quite a bit, even developed and use a formula I call Quality Years Remaining, or QYR, (you can do a thread search here for it, it's a couple years old now) to track a player's likely end point. I come up with an average of about 31.5 for stud RBs by the way, not 30 as many want to use simply because it's a round number.



And I don't believe it's touches that age a player. Age ages a player, makes him slower, and that small difference is enough to turn a 4.5 YPC guy into a 3.5 YPC guy, and he's through.

Disagree, the reason Thomas Jones hasn't lost as much of a step as LT is that Jones didn't get a lot of carries early in his career.

 

[Couch Potato]

Some are done at 29, some are done at 33. There are averages and tendencies, but no one individual wears out or ages exactly like another. Genetics, conditioning, contract status, who is or is not on the bench waiting to take over, etc. all factor in.

Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones did fine. Tiki Barber and Emmit Smith and Curtis Martin were productive beyond where others have stopped.

It would be great if there was a hard and fast rule, but there isn't. I've studied player aging quite a bit, even developed and use a formula I call Quality Years Remaining, or QYR, (you can do a thread search here for it, it's a couple years old now) to track a player's likely end point. I come up with an average of about 31.5 for stud RBs by the way, not 30 as many want to use simply because it's a round number.



And I don't believe it's touches that age a player. Age ages a player, makes him slower, and that small difference is enough to turn a 4.5 YPC guy into a 3.5 YPC guy, and he's through.

Disagree, the reason Thomas Jones hasn't lost as much of a step as LT is that Jones didn't get a lot of carries early in his career.

The problem with this is that it's simply cherry picking one example to support a conclusion. I mentioned Curtis Martin above, who is an example to the contrary. And I could find dozens of guys with low "mileage" who dropped off the map at 30 rather than continue along like Thomas Jones. I'll stand by my above comments. Players slow down at different ages, but it's not the carries that slow them.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

You are mistaken if you think the Washington injury boosted Jone's numbers. I has a $ bet (on another board) that Jones would finish top 15. The guy I bet with said the same thing. Fact is, Jones' numbers for the next 6 weeks after the Washington injury actually went down. Part of that was SoS, part of it was reduced touches due to the sheer number of turnovers Sanchez had.

Weeks 1-6: Jones averaged 16 carries per game (when Washington was playing)Weeks 7-17: Jones averaged 23.5 carries per game (after Washington got hurt; technically he got hurt early in week 7)

Jones averaged 14.65 FF points in a 0.5PPR scoring sytem in weeks 1 through 6. Then Washington got hurt early in week seven. Over the next six games, Jones averaged 14.2. His FF production went down after the Washington injury. Those are the facts... now one could argue the how's and why's, but those are the numbers.

I posted numbers too. You just don't like my numbers because they don't support your hypothesis.

 

[Rovers]

You are mistaken if you think the Washington injury boosted Jone's numbers. I has a $ bet (on another board) that Jones would finish top 15. The guy I bet with said the same thing. Fact is, Jones' numbers for the next 6 weeks after the Washington injury actually went down. Part of that was SoS, part of it was reduced touches due to the sheer number of turnovers Sanchez had.

Weeks 1-6: Jones averaged 16 carries per game (when Washington was playing)Weeks 7-17: Jones averaged 23.5 carries per game (after Washington got hurt; technically he got hurt early in week 7)

Jones averaged 14.65 FF points in a 0.5PPR scoring sytem in weeks 1 through 6. Then Washington got hurt early in week seven. Over the next six games, Jones averaged 14.2. His FF production went down after the Washington injury. Those are the facts... now one could argue the how's and why's, but those are the numbers.

I posted numbers too. You just don't like my numbers because they don't support your hypothesis.

Youy posted carries. I posted FF production. Do you draft RB's based on FF points or carries? You said Washington's injury boosted T Jones', numbers. That is factually incorrect. What I posted is not hypothesis, it's fact. In the 6 games that Washington was healthy, Jones' FF production was higher than in the following 6 games after the Washington injury. You have the "hypothesis", I posted the facts. Might want to get that straight before proceeding.

 

[editor47]

So who are the older RBs you might avoid next year, and who are the ones who might be steals like Jones and Ricky?

Marion Barber and Michael Turner are the next two that come to mind.Although they don't fit in the "older" group they are getting abused out there and injury prone. They will likely be overvalued going into the 2010 drafts.

1 injury makes you injury prone? god i hate some posts i read. i mean, seriously dude. the guy suffered a high ankle sprain. he then came back before he should have. and aggravated it. twice. that still amounts to ONE injury. a high ankle sprain.

 

[SSOG]

Your tone is very condescending. I know what Value Based Drafting is, I was being facetious. You just lost me when you started spitting out the numbers. I'm not debating that CJ was a very valuable player last year - just that he singlehandedly won championships. By the very nature of the fact that he was selected on average at 1.07 makes it wrong. Ray Rice scored 68.9 fewer FP than CJ in ppr (4.05/week) and did it with an ADP down in the 5th round. I could be wrong, but I have an extremely hard time believing that CJ at pick 1.07 offered more value than landing Rice somewhere in the 5th. We also need to account for where you had to draft a player in order to roster him. Which kinda emcompasses why I think the whole "First round picks can win you championships" is bunk. The guy has to be exponentially better than players who were had several rounds later but finished in the top 3-5 at their respective positions.

I'm sorry if my post came off as condescending, though I don't know how I was supposed to see you post "I don't know what a VBD is or how you calculate it" and somehow conclude that you did, in fact, know what VBD is. There wasn't even a rolleyes smiley there or anything.Anyway, I've already posted the numbers. You could have drafted Randy Moss in the 1st and Ray Rice in the 5th... but you'd have been even better off drafting Chris Johnson in the 1st and AUSTIN COLLIE in the 5th. AUSTIN COLLIE! If you had taken Austin Collie in the 5th round he would have been considered a complete and total bust, but Chris Johnson + Complete Bust still would have outscored Ray Rice (aka "Steal of the Draft) and Randy Moss (the #2 fantasy WR).I'm not saying that your first round draft pick *WILL* win you fantasy leagues. I'm saying that your first round draft pick *CAN* win you fantasy leagues- and CJ proved it. I'm not saying that every CJ owner won, but I'm 100% certain that some people won entirely because of CJ. For more examples, check out Brady/Moss in '07, Tomlinson in '06, Alexander in '05, or Holmes/Faulk at the beginning of the decade. Not every guy who owned them won, but a lot of guys won because they owned them. Yes, it is possible to win your league in the first round. It is possible for one great first round pick to present more value than seven great late round selections. You can incorporate draft position if you want, but draft position doesn't matter in the slightest once the draft is over- players don't get bonus points for being first rounders. Rostering Johnson's 197 VBD, regardless of when or where you did it, did more good than rostering the seven late-round steals I mentioned earlier, even if those guys were the last 7 players you drafted.We can keep going in circles arguing semantics or draft position or VBD if you want, but the key point being made here is that the VBD difference between the #1 guy and the #5 guy (Rice/AJ) is as large as the VBD difference between the #5 guy and the #68 guy (Mike Wallace). The #1 guy in VBD is always the SoD, regardless of where he was taken. CJ could have been drafted #1 overall in your league, and he'd still be the Steal of the Draft, because the difference between him and everyone else was just that astronomical.

Disagree, the reason Thomas Jones hasn't lost as much of a step as LT is that Jones didn't get a lot of carries early in his career.

Personally, I think it's just that Jones was a faster back than Tomlinson, so while they've both lost a step, Jones had more of a step to lose.

 

[FantasyTrader]

You can incorporate draft position if you want, but draft position doesn't matter in the slightest once the draft is over- players don't get bonus points for being first rounders. Rostering Johnson's 197 VBD, regardless of when or where you did it...

Of course it does! If you really believe this, then the rest of our discussion is a moot point. Where you had to draft a player is equally as important during the draft, after the draft and throughout the season. I agree, players don't get bonus points for being first rounders, they get DOCKED points in this discussion regarding who was the player that presented the greatest "value" to your team. There's an inherent expected value with every pick. You expect to accumulate X fantasy points with every pick in your draft, your first rounder obviously being higher than all other picks. That's what makes it nearly impossible for your 1st rounder to "win" you a championship. In terms of production:cost, I'd argue that acquiring Miles Austin with a waiver pick blew CJ at 1.07 out of the water in terms of all the events that unfolded leading to you winning a fantasy championship.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm a bigger believer in "you can't lose your league in the first round, but you certainly can win it". Getting Chris Johnson in the first probably single-handedly won several titles this year.

You and I usually line up really well in our philosophy but it's been awhile since I've read anything so silly on here. I've never seen, experienced or heard about a 1st round pick winning a league. Grab any championship team with Johnson on the roster from last year, post the beginning and season ending roster he was on and I'll show you a minimum of two to three trades, waiver pickups or later round draft picks that impacted that team's fate more when you factor in production relative to cost.

You could say the same thing in reverse about the pick "losing" you the league. There are always tons of teams that win their championship despite picking a first round bust.I agree with SSOG bigtime on this one.Really, the whole "you can't win your league in the first round, but you certainly can lose it" is probably the worst quote out there in regards to fantasy football. Picking a guy that gives you an X point advantage over the rest of the league helps you just as much as picking a guy that gives you an X point deficit over the rest of the league hurts you.I remember this was big a few years ago with Priest vs. LT debates. Priest was risky, LT was safe, and you "can't win your league in the first round anyway". Well, at the end of the year taking LT over Priest at #1 over all would have lost you just as many points as taking Warrick Dunn over LT at #2 overall would have.We saw the same thing later in that draft with Sjax vs. Rudi around the #7 spot. Picking the "safe" pick in Rudi over Sjax cost you just as many points as picking Kevin Faulk over Rudi would have.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You can incorporate draft position if you want, but draft position doesn't matter in the slightest once the draft is over- players don't get bonus points for being first rounders. Rostering Johnson's 197 VBD, regardless of when or where you did it...

Of course it does! If you really believe this, then the rest of our discussion is a moot point. Where you had to draft a player is equally as important during the draft, after the draft and throughout the season. I agree, players don't get bonus points for being first rounders, they get DOCKED points in this discussion regarding who was the player that presented the greatest "value" to your team. There's an inherent expected value with every pick. You expect to accumulate X fantasy points with every pick in your draft, your first rounder obviously being higher than all other picks. That's what makes it nearly impossible for your 1st rounder to "win" you a championship. In terms of production:cost, I'd argue that acquiring Miles Austin with a waiver pick blew CJ at 1.07 out of the water in terms of all the events that unfolded leading to you winning a fantasy championship.

But what do you expect out of the 1.07 pick? 1400/10 or so? CJ had 2500/16, so he eclipsed that by 1100/6. That means he did as much to "win" your league as drafting someone at 1.07 that went for 300/4 over the course of the entire season would have done to "lose" it.And really, even the hugest of 1st round busts (outside of injury) never put up nearly as low of numbers as 300/4. Realistically, CJ eclipsed the expectations at 1.07 by far more than pretty much any pick you can conjur up would have done to come under those expectations.CJ did a lot more to "win" you your league at 1.07 than a bust like LT would have done to "lose" it.

 

[FantasyTrader]

You can incorporate draft position if you want, but draft position doesn't matter in the slightest once the draft is over- players don't get bonus points for being first rounders. Rostering Johnson's 197 VBD, regardless of when or where you did it...

Of course it does! If you really believe this, then the rest of our discussion is a moot point. Where you had to draft a player is equally as important during the draft, after the draft and throughout the season. I agree, players don't get bonus points for being first rounders, they get DOCKED points in this discussion regarding who was the player that presented the greatest "value" to your team. There's an inherent expected value with every pick. You expect to accumulate X fantasy points with every pick in your draft, your first rounder obviously being higher than all other picks. That's what makes it nearly impossible for your 1st rounder to "win" you a championship. In terms of production:cost, I'd argue that acquiring Miles Austin with a waiver pick blew CJ at 1.07 out of the water in terms of all the events that unfolded leading to you winning a fantasy championship.

But what do you expect out of the 1.07 pick? 1400/10 or so? CJ had 2500/16, so he eclipsed that by 1100/6. That means he did as much to "win" your league as drafting someone at 1.07 that went for 300/4 over the course of the entire season would have done to "lose" it.And really, even the hugest of 1st round busts (outside of injury) never put up nearly as low of numbers as 300/4. Realistically, CJ eclipsed the expectations at 1.07 by far more than pretty much any pick you can conjur up would have done to come under those expectations.CJ did a lot more to "win" you your league at 1.07 than a bust like LT would have done to "lose" it.

I agree with all of that BaGeL. I'm on board with CJ being absolutely stellar at 1.07 or any other draft position. But why stop your analogy there when discussing whether a 1st round pick "won" a championship and why? In that discussion, we need to compare the % Chris Johnson outperformed the value of pick 1.07. Then to determine whether he or Ray Rice had more of an impact on winning your league, we need to look at the % Ray Rice outperformed the expected value from pick 5.11 (I made that up by the way - I have no idea what Rice's ADP was). Then throw a guy like Jamaal Charles into the discussion. What astronomical % over the EV of a waiver wire pick did he wind up with as the 11th ranked RB with 231.7 FP?I just think the discussion goes a layer deeper than you guys are talking about. Perhaps the best way to describe it is to just flip the argument to the other extreme. Can your last round pick lose your league? Because by SSOG's rationale it can if you just take a guy that sucks bad enough. I'd argue that by the mere fact that it's a last round pick makes it darn near impossible.

 

[karmarooster]

Gosh, you guys get into pissing matches about the most random things. Who was a better value, CJ or Rice? Was CJ a better good pick than LT was a worse bad pick? Umm....

Look, I wanted to discuss old RBs. CJ is not one of them. Neither is Rice. I made a blanket statement and said old RBs are a reasonable gamble in the mid-rounds, but not in the 1st or 2nd.

So back to the topic... Ronnie Brown, Marion Barber, and Michael Turner have been mentioned as 'older' RBs going into next year. Although none of them are exactly old.

What about Willis McGahee? I'm guessing he moves on to a new team. Anyone care to comment on his prospects for next year, with the Ravens or with a new team?

Chester Taylor?

Benson?

Fred Jackson

 

[Pipes]

You are mistaken if you think the Washington injury boosted Jone's numbers. I has a $ bet (on another board) that Jones would finish top 15. The guy I bet with said the same thing. Fact is, Jones' numbers for the next 6 weeks after the Washington injury actually went down. Part of that was SoS, part of it was reduced touches due to the sheer number of turnovers Sanchez had.

Weeks 1-6: Jones averaged 16 carries per game (when Washington was playing)Weeks 7-17: Jones averaged 23.5 carries per game (after Washington got hurt; technically he got hurt early in week 7)

Jones averaged 14.65 FF points in a 0.5PPR scoring sytem in weeks 1 through 6. Then Washington got hurt early in week seven. Over the next six games, Jones averaged 14.2. His FF production went down after the Washington injury. Those are the facts... now one could argue the how's and why's, but those are the numbers.

I posted numbers too. You just don't like my numbers because they don't support your hypothesis.

Youy posted carries. I posted FF production. Do you draft RB's based on FF points or carries? You said Washington's injury boosted T Jones', numbers. That is factually incorrect. What I posted is not hypothesis, it's fact. In the 6 games that Washington was healthy, Jones' FF production was higher than in the following 6 games after the Washington injury. You have the "hypothesis", I posted the facts. Might want to get that straight before proceeding.

Not sure how you can argue Washington's injury didn't help. According to both of your numbers it took Jones more carries per game (after the injury) to get less points per game (after the injury) so had he not had the opportunity to get more carries after the Washington injury his numbers would've taken an even bigger hit.Look there is no arguing that Jones had an excellent season but the numbers can fit whichever arguement you're trying to make.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Chester Taylor? Benson? Fred Jackson

Does Benson really qualify? Isn't he only 27?Taylor would be interesting if he landed in a different situation than he's in now, but still with a strong OL. That could be a similar situation to Jones this past year: Older RB who has proven to be productive when a starter, but with relatively limited career reps who could be able to produce better than expected behind a quality offensive line for another year or so.Is Chet a FA this offseason?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Youy posted carries. I posted FF production. Do you draft RB's based on FF points or carries?

Which is more predictive of future production? If I told you nothing about 2 RBs except that RB #1 will get 23 carries per game, and RB #2 will get 16 carries per game, which do you expect to get more FF points next year?

You said Washington's injury boosted T Jones', numbers.

No, I never said that. Go re-read my post. You weren't clear about which "numbers" you were talking about. Post-Washington's injury, T Jones CLEARLY had a boost in his rushing attempts per game. Which is exactly what my post stated.

You have the "hypothesis", I posted the facts. Might want to get that straight before proceeding.

Your "facts" only raised more questions. Which is why I immediately looked for more helpful facts.

Might want to get that straight before proceeding.

There really isn't any need to act this way.

 

[karmarooster]

Thomas Jones had more carries after Washington's injury. Fact. Therefore, he had a more opportunities to score FF points.

However, he average more points before the injury than after. So he had fewer carries, but scored more points, vs. having more carries and scoring fewer points.

How can you rationalize this?

...in the 6 games to begin the season, his PPG stat is inflated by a 210 yard 1 TD game. An outlier. he average 14 points per game in 6 games, but one of those games was a 27 point monster. with only 6 games to average, that is a significant boost.

Washington looked better than Jones in the beginning of the season. There WAS talk of him getting 200 offensive touches before the season (source: Peter King in training camp). if Washington had stayed healthy, i suspect that he would've cut into Jones' total fantasy production.

It's looking to me like Jones got lucky. Washington got hurt, and Greene wasn't ready.

 

[Rovers]

Thomas Jones had more carries after Washington's injury. Fact. Therefore, he had a more opportunities to score FF points.However, he average more points before the injury than after. So he had fewer carries, but scored more points, vs. having more carries and scoring fewer points.How can you rationalize this? ...in the 6 games to begin the season, his PPG stat is inflated by a 210 yard 1 TD game. An outlier. he average 14 points per game in 6 games, but one of those games was a 27 point monster. with only 6 games to average, that is a significant boost. Washington looked better than Jones in the beginning of the season. There WAS talk of him getting 200 offensive touches before the season (source: Peter King in training camp). if Washington had stayed healthy, i suspect that he would've cut into Jones' total fantasy production.It's looking to me like Jones got lucky. Washington got hurt, and Greene wasn't ready.

Like I said in one of my earlier posts, one could argue the why's and wherefor's of Jones' production pre and post the Washington injury. Yes, his carries went up. Did he get more worn down with the additional carries? It's really conjecture. It's a debate that could go on forever. As far as Peter King goes... I didn't think he was right about his projections on Washington's touches. I thought there would be more carries to go around (there were) I thought that because of that, Jones would only see a minimal reduction of touches in 2009 vs 2008. Then one has to look at the opponents the Jets faced when Jones' touches went up. That was a stretch of tougher run D's. The bottom line is the numbers. Jones' FF production went down when Washington went down. We could spin that one around forever and a day. Sanchez, the schedule, the variables are endless. In the end, I'll just use the numbers. Do I think Jones would have finished top 15 instead of 9th if Washington remained healthy? Probably. It's all hypothetical. No matter how much it would be debated, in the end, it's conjecture.