Northern Voice
Footballguy
So, the AL Cy Young chase is crazy this season. Traditional stats and advanced stats put different guys at the top. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference WAR put different guys at the top. ESPN's Cy prediction system puts different guys again. The guys with the best records don't have the most strikeouts or best ERA. The guys with the best ERA haven't/may not pitch full seasons. The guys with lots of strikeouts have ####ty records. Here's my attempt at an overview with 6 weeks to go:
Potential 20 Game Winners:
J.A. Happ 143 IP, 16-3, 2.96 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 126K, 2.8 fWAR
Rick Porcello 158 IP, 16-3, 3.30 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 129K, 2.9 fWAR
Chris Tillman 151 IP, 15-4, 3.46 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 124K, 2.4 fWAR
**With this group, your waiting to see if one of them gets to 20 wins and how much the voters still care about things like that. They all have pretty solid all around numbers, but aside from wins, they aren't among the leaders in every other category. Happ is on the edges of the ERA race but that's another traditional stat, so he's just getting a lot of the same voters there. That said, if one of these guys wins 20+ games with a sub-3 ERA, I think they have a chance at getting a lot of votes.
ERA Leaders
Michael Fulmer 120 IP, 10-3, 2.25 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 103K, 2.6 fWAR
Danny Duffy 132 IP, 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 143K, 3.0 fWAR
Aaron Sanchez 152.1 IP, 12-2, 2.84 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 127K, 3.6 fWAR
**All three of these guys have been dominant this season, probably the 3 most dominant. For the Cy Young, you can't dismiss ERA. The season is over, it's time to vote on what actually happened, rather than what was predicted/expected/should have happened. All three of these guys may be discounted for not having as many starts or innings as a lot of the other candidates (assuming Sanchez misses some starts down the stretch). I used fWAR here because it's an easier site to navigate but bWAR has Fulmer at the very top of its leaderboard (5.1 bWAR). Duffy/Fulmer are first and second in WHIP. Sanchez has the best win % in the league. Baseball-Reference's various other systems (base-out wins/runs saved, adjusted pitching wins/runs put these three consistently at the top.
Strikeout Leaders
Chris Archer 149.2 IP, 6-16
, 4.39 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 177 K, 2.2 fWAR
Justin Verlander 167.1 IP, 12-7, 3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 176 K, 3.4 fWAR
David Price 163.2 IP, 10-8 4.29 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 167 K, 3.2 fWAR
**The ERA and win-loss records (and uneven performance) eliminate Archer and Price pretty easily. Verlander should be right in the thick of the race. He could easily lead the league in strikeouts, will be right there in WAR and his traditional W/L and ERA numbers won't be elite but shouldn't disqualify him either.
fWAR Leaders
Corey Kluber 163 IP, 13-8, 3.15 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 163K, 4.3 fWAR
Jose Quintana 157.2 IP, 9-9, 2.85 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 136K, 3.9 fWAR
Chris Sale 160.2 IP, 14-6, 3.30 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 157K, 3.8fWAR
**As expected, fWAR likes the guys who have the best balance of all the numbers - it's crazy that these guys are at the top of this category but none of them are in the top 3 in any other category. There isn't a lot to choose between these guys. Quintana may get punished for having fewer wins an not being dominant in any one category but that's pretty fitting for a guy who is just so consistent.
Please, let's not do this
Zach Britton 50 IP
2-1, 37/37 SVs, 0.54 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 59K, 1.8 fWAR
He also leads in win probability added. The vote splitting between the starters, the perfect record, the ERA ad the WPA will keep him in the mix. He likely needs the Orioles to make the playoffs on top of staying perfect.
bWAR and ESPN Cy Predictor love him even though he's not top of any categories
Cole Hamels 153.1 IP, 12-4, 2.88 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 149K, 2.3WAR
FIP is Kluber, Duffy, Sanchez. IP is Verlander, Price and Kluber. bWAR has Fulmer, Quintana and Hamels at the top. ESPN's Cy Predictor has the top 5 as Happ, Britton, Porcello, Sanchez and Hamels.
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Sale and Kluber have the best mix of wins, ERA, strikeouts and maybe should be considered the leaders at this time. I would have Sanchez and Verlander (5th and 6th in fWAR) in that mix as well. I'm interested in this obviously because of the Jays in the mix. I don't think Happ will win but he's been very good. I do think Sanchez deserves consideration but again, I'm not sure he'll get the innings (same for Duffy/Fulmer), not sure how many innings is enough. Not sure how much 20 wins still is a factor for a voter. 20 wins and sub-3 ERA particularly. What happens if Fulmer is able to get his ERA under 2 - can you not give it to him? Still a half dozen starts or so left but will be interesting to keep an eye on. Will being on a playoff team/performances down the stretch be a factor here as well? Guys with a low number of losses often seem to get a bump too, i.e. a 17-2 record carries more weight than 18-8.
There's so little to choose from them, so I'm setting the bar at the completely non-arbitrary benchmarks more than 150 IP as of now (180 + pace), 12+ wins (15+ pace), sub-3 ERA and at least 3.5 WAR. Oh shoot, the only guy who fits is Aaron Sanchez
Honestly, I can come up with arguments for 11 of these guys no problem. The only ones I think you can completely eliminate are Archer, Price and Tillman.
Potential 20 Game Winners:
J.A. Happ 143 IP, 16-3, 2.96 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 126K, 2.8 fWAR
Rick Porcello 158 IP, 16-3, 3.30 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 129K, 2.9 fWAR
Chris Tillman 151 IP, 15-4, 3.46 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 124K, 2.4 fWAR
**With this group, your waiting to see if one of them gets to 20 wins and how much the voters still care about things like that. They all have pretty solid all around numbers, but aside from wins, they aren't among the leaders in every other category. Happ is on the edges of the ERA race but that's another traditional stat, so he's just getting a lot of the same voters there. That said, if one of these guys wins 20+ games with a sub-3 ERA, I think they have a chance at getting a lot of votes.
ERA Leaders
Michael Fulmer 120 IP, 10-3, 2.25 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 103K, 2.6 fWAR
Danny Duffy 132 IP, 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 143K, 3.0 fWAR
Aaron Sanchez 152.1 IP, 12-2, 2.84 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 127K, 3.6 fWAR
**All three of these guys have been dominant this season, probably the 3 most dominant. For the Cy Young, you can't dismiss ERA. The season is over, it's time to vote on what actually happened, rather than what was predicted/expected/should have happened. All three of these guys may be discounted for not having as many starts or innings as a lot of the other candidates (assuming Sanchez misses some starts down the stretch). I used fWAR here because it's an easier site to navigate but bWAR has Fulmer at the very top of its leaderboard (5.1 bWAR). Duffy/Fulmer are first and second in WHIP. Sanchez has the best win % in the league. Baseball-Reference's various other systems (base-out wins/runs saved, adjusted pitching wins/runs put these three consistently at the top.
Strikeout Leaders
Chris Archer 149.2 IP, 6-16
, 4.39 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 177 K, 2.2 fWARJustin Verlander 167.1 IP, 12-7, 3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 176 K, 3.4 fWAR
David Price 163.2 IP, 10-8 4.29 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 167 K, 3.2 fWAR
**The ERA and win-loss records (and uneven performance) eliminate Archer and Price pretty easily. Verlander should be right in the thick of the race. He could easily lead the league in strikeouts, will be right there in WAR and his traditional W/L and ERA numbers won't be elite but shouldn't disqualify him either.
fWAR Leaders
Corey Kluber 163 IP, 13-8, 3.15 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 163K, 4.3 fWAR
Jose Quintana 157.2 IP, 9-9, 2.85 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 136K, 3.9 fWAR
Chris Sale 160.2 IP, 14-6, 3.30 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 157K, 3.8fWAR
**As expected, fWAR likes the guys who have the best balance of all the numbers - it's crazy that these guys are at the top of this category but none of them are in the top 3 in any other category. There isn't a lot to choose between these guys. Quintana may get punished for having fewer wins an not being dominant in any one category but that's pretty fitting for a guy who is just so consistent.
Please, let's not do this
Zach Britton 50 IP
2-1, 37/37 SVs, 0.54 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 59K, 1.8 fWARHe also leads in win probability added. The vote splitting between the starters, the perfect record, the ERA ad the WPA will keep him in the mix. He likely needs the Orioles to make the playoffs on top of staying perfect.
bWAR and ESPN Cy Predictor love him even though he's not top of any categories
Cole Hamels 153.1 IP, 12-4, 2.88 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 149K, 2.3WAR
FIP is Kluber, Duffy, Sanchez. IP is Verlander, Price and Kluber. bWAR has Fulmer, Quintana and Hamels at the top. ESPN's Cy Predictor has the top 5 as Happ, Britton, Porcello, Sanchez and Hamels.
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Sale and Kluber have the best mix of wins, ERA, strikeouts and maybe should be considered the leaders at this time. I would have Sanchez and Verlander (5th and 6th in fWAR) in that mix as well. I'm interested in this obviously because of the Jays in the mix. I don't think Happ will win but he's been very good. I do think Sanchez deserves consideration but again, I'm not sure he'll get the innings (same for Duffy/Fulmer), not sure how many innings is enough. Not sure how much 20 wins still is a factor for a voter. 20 wins and sub-3 ERA particularly. What happens if Fulmer is able to get his ERA under 2 - can you not give it to him? Still a half dozen starts or so left but will be interesting to keep an eye on. Will being on a playoff team/performances down the stretch be a factor here as well? Guys with a low number of losses often seem to get a bump too, i.e. a 17-2 record carries more weight than 18-8.
There's so little to choose from them, so I'm setting the bar at the completely non-arbitrary benchmarks more than 150 IP as of now (180 + pace), 12+ wins (15+ pace), sub-3 ERA and at least 3.5 WAR. Oh shoot, the only guy who fits is Aaron Sanchez
Honestly, I can come up with arguments for 11 of these guys no problem. The only ones I think you can completely eliminate are Archer, Price and Tillman.
