AL Cy Young (1 Viewer)

[wilked]

Say what you will, but there are only two contestants here...Beckett and Sabathia

here they are compared

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_s...=XXXX277417bosX

VORP

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/s....php?cid=204030

No one can really deny that Sabathia was the most valuable pitcher in baseball...he pitched, by far, the most innings in all of baseball, at an extremely high level. That said, the argument is strong that Beckett was the better pitcher, inning by inning. The chart below shows a number of pitching stats. I took the liberty to highligh green where Beckett was stronger

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/2055/untitledvc0.jpg

It is close, no doubt, but Beckett outpitched Sabathia inning by inning. The only question, then, becomes, how much are Sabathia's 40 extra innings worth? If you consider the Cy the most valuable pitcher award, then CC is your man. If you consider it the best pitcher award (allowing for some minimum innings pitched requirement, etc) then I think Beckett is your man. Either way, both are well deserving of the award

 

[Your Mother]

Say what you will, but there are only two contestants here...Beckett and Sabathia

here they are compared

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_s...=XXXX277417bosX

VORP

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/s....php?cid=204030

No one can really deny that Sabathia was the most valuable pitcher in baseball...he pitched, by far, the most innings in all of baseball, at an extremely high level. That said, the argument is strong that Beckett was the better pitcher, inning by inning. The chart below shows a number of pitching stats. I took the liberty to highligh green where Beckett was stronger

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/2055/untitledvc0.jpg

It is close, no doubt, but Beckett outpitched Sabathia inning by inning. The only question, then, becomes, how much are Sabathia's 40 extra innings worth? If you consider the Cy the most valuable pitcher award, then CC is your man. If you consider it the best pitcher award (allowing for some minimum innings pitched requirement, etc) then I think Beckett is your man. Either way, both are well deserving of the award

1) Sabathia's core peripherals (K rate, walk rate, GB/FB ratio) are slightly better, so your statement that Beckett's been better "inning by inning" is false. Not really sure why you're including BABIP, that measures luck and the defense behind each respective pitcher, not pitcher skill.2) I don't really get punishing Sabathia for staying healthy either.

2)

 

[whoknew]

Why did you leave out Santana? He's pitched a little better than either of those guys.

 

[wilked]

1) Sabathia's core peripherals (K rate, walk rate, GB/FB ratio) are slightly better,

Beckett has more strikeouts / 9IP (click the 3rd link)

 

[wilked]

Why did you leave out Santana? He's pitched a little better than either of those guys.

I agree, he deserves strong consideration, but a big part of the Cy is building buzz / getting your name out there, and Santana has been in the shadows all year. You are right that he deserves consideration, but he will not finish in the top 2 in voting, probably mainly due to the Twins ineptitude

 

[s_ezy]

C.C's K/BB ratio is insane, hes up there with the top closers!

also C.C has 36 walks, with pitching 40 extra innings to Beckett's 40 walks

WHIP and ERA are virtually the same

what it comes down to me is how much of an impact will beckett becoming the first 20 game winner in a few years have

 

[ack34]

CC Sabathia. And it won't be as close as those in New England would make you think.

 

[the moops]

CC Sabathia. And it won't be as close as those in New England would make you think.

I think it is fairly close. An it should be.But CC will win, rightfully so.

 

[guru_007]

CC Sabathia. And it won't be as close as those in New England would make you think.

Not going to be close? You think a 20-win pitcher with a lower ERA, better K/IP and WHIP isn't going to get his due consideration for the award?Honestly, I think this is a toss up. A solid case can be made for either.

 

[RBM]

Beckett wins this

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Is this some mathematical discussion about who we think should win or is it about who we think will win.

Mathematically, eh, they're pretty close, Johan deserves consideration if we are talking numbers.

But if we are going by voter reaction, and if Johan won't get love because of his W-L record, then conversely, you can assume a statistically equivalent pitcher like Beckett will win it for hitting the magic number 20. Beckett in a romp, and I think he earned it, he's had a good year and winning 20 with a DL stint is impressive

 

[Your Mother]

1) Sabathia's core peripherals (K rate, walk rate, GB/FB ratio) are slightly better,

Beckett has more strikeouts / 9IP (click the 3rd link)

I meant overall. I'd rather have .7 K's less per 9 if it also meant a .4 BB per 9 reduction, if that makes sense.

 

[Capella]

1) Sabathia's core peripherals (K rate, walk rate, GB/FB ratio) are slightly better,

Beckett has more strikeouts / 9IP (click the 3rd link)

I meant overall. I'd rather have .7 K's less per 9 if it also meant a .4 BB per 9 reduction, if that makes sense.

Not even the slightest consideration for the people voting though. These guys look at wins, Ks and ERA. That's it.

 

[wilked]

As others have said, both are well deserving

ESPNs Cy predictor had Beckett as the favorite a week ago, but CC has leaped him

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

Edited to add - Looks like CC is leading due to this in the formula

A 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division champsionship (pro-rated based on the current standings).

They gave CC the full 12, and Beckett the 6. If the Sox clinch the division, that would add 6 to Beckett's point total

 

[Your Mother]

1) Sabathia's core peripherals (K rate, walk rate, GB/FB ratio) are slightly better,

Beckett has more strikeouts / 9IP (click the 3rd link)

I meant overall. I'd rather have .7 K's less per 9 if it also meant a .4 BB per 9 reduction, if that makes sense.

Not even the slightest consideration for the people voting though. These guys look at wins, Ks and ERA. That's it.

Oh I know. Some writers might get a little deeper, but I doubt it. I'd say in terms of importance, it goes ERA, Wins, then maybe WHIP or opposing batting average?

 

[posty]

Fausto Carmona should get some serious consideration as well...

 

[shadyridr]

I think Wang deserves serious consideration

 

[shadyridr]

Honestly I think Beckett is a lock

 

[Tecumseh]

Sabathia will get 2 more starts, so he'll have a shot at 20. If Sabathia hits 20 and the Sox gack the division, CC wins.

 

[Your Mother]

Sabathia will get 2 more starts, so he'll have a shot at 20. If Sabathia hits 20 and the Sox gack the division, CC wins.

He will not start next weekend. One more next week, then likely game 1 of the ALDS.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Sabathia will get 2 more starts, so he'll have a shot at 20. If Sabathia hits 20 and the Sox gack the division, CC wins.

He will not start next weekend. One more next week, then likely game 1 of the ALDS.

Maybe a 2-3 inning tune up. First game is Thursday, right?

 

[Tecumseh]

Sabathia will get 2 more starts, so he'll have a shot at 20. If Sabathia hits 20 and the Sox gack the division, CC wins.

He will not start next weekend. One more next week, then likely game 1 of the ALDS.

Maybe a 2-3 inning tune up. First game is Thursday, right?

Maybe they let him throw 5 innings with a strict pitch count if he has a chance at 20.

 

[tikigods]

CC will probably win it over Beckett. Wins are more of a team aspect whereas CC's personal numbers are better.

 

[wadegarrett]

Coin flip. Both very deserving.

Of course, I think it goes to C.C.

 

[Bobcat10]

Cy Cy Cybathia

Got it?

 

[[icon]]

Beckett walks with this if Boston holds onto the division.

 

[posty]

If Bedard didn't get hurt and the O's had any bullpen, he would be a top 3...

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Sabathia wins this. Beckett only won a few more games than Wakefield.

 

[wilked]

Beckett has two strong things in his favor...20+ wins, and the fact that Carmona will rob Sabathia of some votes

Both are worthy candidates, but the odds favor Beckett

 

[[icon]]

Sabathia wins this. Beckett only won a few more games than Wakefield.

And Sabathia won the same amount of games as Carmona and doesn't even have the best ERA on his TEAM..... what's your point here?

 

[tikigods]

If Bedard didn't get hurt and the O's had any bullpen, he would be a top 3...

I'd say Lackey needs some consideration as well.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Sabathia wins this. Beckett only won a few more games than Wakefield.

And Sabathia won the same amount of games as Carmona and doesn't even have the best ERA on his TEAM..... what's your point here?

well, the basic point was that Wakefield sucks. Carmona is the Indians #2 pitcher. where does Wakefield rank in Boston?my main point though is that win total is a pretty flawed measure to compare these two pitchers.Sabathia had pretty awful run support all year, didn't he? How do Sabathia and Beckett compare in that stat? Who had the better bullpen? etc.btw, any non-Boston homers think Beckett is a "lock"?

 

[wilked]

Sabathia wins this. Beckett only won a few more games than Wakefield.

And Sabathia won the same amount of games as Carmona and doesn't even have the best ERA on his TEAM..... what's your point here?

well, the basic point was that Wakefield sucks. Carmona is the Indians #2 pitcher. where does Wakefield rank in Boston?my main point though is that win total is a pretty flawed measure to compare these two pitchers.

Sabathia had pretty awful run support all year, didn't he? How do Sabathia and Beckett compare in that stat? Who had the better bullpen? etc.

btw, any non-Boston homers think Beckett is a "lock"?

Aaron...ESPN has a really good stats package, check it out

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/statistics

Sabathia is 16th in the AL, with 5.6 runs support / game. Beckett is essentially tied for 2nd with Wang and King Felix, about a full run ahead.

Also, I tend to let history be my guide for a lot of these awards. The fact is, when a pitcher has 20+ wins, and no other has 20+ wins, the pitcher with 20+ has won the Cy 90+% of the time (I think there were 3 instances of this in nearly 50 years, Clemens, Pedro, and someone else)

 

[shadyridr]

Sabathia wins this. Beckett only won a few more games than Wakefield.

And Sabathia won the same amount of games as Carmona and doesn't even have the best ERA on his TEAM..... what's your point here?

well, the basic point was that Wakefield sucks. Carmona is the Indians #2 pitcher. where does Wakefield rank in Boston?my main point though is that win total is a pretty flawed measure to compare these two pitchers.Sabathia had pretty awful run support all year, didn't he? How do Sabathia and Beckett compare in that stat? Who had the better bullpen? etc.btw, any non-Boston homers think Beckett is a "lock"?

Im a Yankee fan and I think Beckett is a lock

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

even if Beckett is more likely to win due to his win total, I think Sabathia is more deserving. both had great years though. I just think Sabathia's performance was more impressive.

 

[Workhorse]

Batting Average against:

Beckett: .240

Sabathia: .258

OBP against:

Beckett: .282

Sabathia: .291

Slugging against:

Beckett: .363

Sabathia: .391

Beckett was better at keeping batters from reaching base than Sabathia. Period. The wins are icing on the cake.

My vote would have gone to Bedard if he had stayed healthy.

 

[[icon]]

Batting Average against: Beckett: .240Sabathia: .258OBP against:Beckett: .282Sabathia: .291Slugging against:Beckett: .363Sabathia: .391Beckett was better at keeping batters from reaching base than Sabathia. Period. The wins are icing on the cake.My vote would have gone to Bedard if he had stayed healthy.

The ONLY significant stat that Sabathia has Beckett beat in is Strikeouts... and Beckett actually has a better K/9 rate than Sabathia. The Only reason CC is ahead of him in that category is because beckett had a short DL stint.. something that makes his 20 wins that much more impressive. If the Sox win the division Beckett walks with this. IF not.. it's close.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Batting Average against: Beckett: .240Sabathia: .258OBP against:Beckett: .282Sabathia: .291Slugging against:Beckett: .363Sabathia: .391Beckett was better at keeping batters from reaching base than Sabathia. Period. The wins are icing on the cake.My vote would have gone to Bedard if he had stayed healthy.

:( The ONLY significant stat that Sabathia has Beckett beat in is Strikeouts... and Beckett actually has a better K/9 rate than Sabathia. The Only reason CC is ahead of him in that category is because beckett had a short DL stint.. something that makes his 20 wins that much more impressive. If the Sox win the division Beckett walks with this. IF not.. it's close.

I think Beckett is slightly ahead of CC here, but the fact that CC pitched 40 more innings shouldn't be ignored...Getting that level pf pitching performance over an additional 40 innings was huge for the Tribe...

 

[Workhorse]

Two more points in Beckett's favor:

(1) Jacobs Field played as a PITCHER'S park this season (park factor: 98). Fenway Park played as a HITTER'S park (park factor: 101). Beckett's numbers look a little better in that context - For example, his road stats (2.18 ERA) suggest that he was hurt pitching half his games in Fenway.

(2) The AL East is a tougher hitting division than the AL Central. In terms of team OBP (not counting own team), the AL East has the #1, #8, #9 and #12 ranked offenses in the American League. The AL Central has #5, #10, #13 and #14. Beckett, in general, has faced a tougher hitting division than Sabathia.

 

[INDIANSummer]

Cy Cy Sabathia

 

[[icon]]

Cy Cy Sabathia

Not a chance.... with the Sox about to clinch the division and Beckett going for his 21st win on Thursday... Beckett = AL Cy Young

 

[INDIANSummer]

Cy Cy Sabathia

Not a chance

I think he might have a chance.

 

[Bobcat10]

Cy Cy Cybathia

fixed

 

[Bobcat10]

How much would this hardware pump up CC's salary expectations (free agent after 2008 season)? Does it even factor in? I mean, the guys gonna get paid big time either way, but would this add a couple million?

 

[[icon]]

WINS:

Beckett 20

Sabathia 18

LOSSES:

Beckett 6

Sabathia 7

ERA

Beckett: 3.14

Sabathia: 3.19

IP

Beckett: 194

Sabathia: 234

K

Beckett: 188

Sabathia: 205

HOWEVER...

K/9

Beckett: 8.69

Sabathia: 7.88

WHIP

Beckett: 1.13

Sabathia: 1.14

OPS Against

Beckett: .0.645

Sabathia: 0.682

WIn %

Beckett .769

Sabathia: .729

AVG Against

Beckett: .240

Sabathia: .258

 

[INDIANSummer]

WINS:

Beckett 20

Sabathia 18

LOSSES:

Beckett 6

Sabathia 7

ERA

Beckett: 3.14

Sabathia: 3.19

IP

Beckett: 194

Sabathia: 234

K

Beckett: 188

Sabathia: 205

HOWEVER...

K/9

Beckett: 8.69

Sabathia: 7.88

WHIP

Beckett: 1.13

Sabathia: 1.14

OPS Against

Beckett: .0.645

Sabathia: 0.682

WIn %

Beckett .769

Sabathia: .729

AVG Against

Beckett: .240

Sabathia: .258

um, the guys with the better stats don't always win the award. usually, but not always.

 

[INDIANSummer]

Cy Cy Cybathia

fixed

 

[Bobcat10]

WINS:

Beckett 20

Sabathia 18

LOSSES:

Beckett 6

Sabathia 7

ERA

Beckett: 3.14

Sabathia: 3.19

IP

Beckett: 194

Sabathia: 234

K

Beckett: 188

Sabathia: 205

HOWEVER...

K/9

Beckett: 8.69

Sabathia: 7.88

WHIP

Beckett: 1.13

Sabathia: 1.14

OPS Against

Beckett: .0.645

Sabathia: 0.682

WIn %

Beckett .769

Sabathia: .729

AVG Against

Beckett: .240

Sabathia: .258

um, the guys with the better stats don't always win the award. usually, but not always.

True, and that's why I think CC will get more MVP votes.

 

[shadyridr]

I think its almost laughable that you guys think Sabathia will get the award over Beckett. I also think its a lock for Beckett

 

[Bobcat10]

Beckett's gonna get it cuz he pitches for Boston. Just like when Belle was robbed of the MVP. Don't even get me started there. Highway robbery, not just robbery. CC not getting the Cy is not any sort of robbery, though.