Alex Smith vs Aaron Rodgers (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

Going into the 2005 draft, I thought A Smith and A Rodgers had almost equal NFL potential. One got put in a very bad situation and started in his first year, the other one was put in a good situation and had years to learn from (watch) a future HOF QB. One became a bust, and although it's still too early to say regarding Rodgers, as of today it looks like he might go on to end up with a significantly better NFL career than A Smith.

So I was wondering, if SF had drafted Rodgers and the Packers had gotten A Smith, would have Rodgers done much better than Smith? Would A Smith have bombed out with the Packers?

On the field obviously Rodgers looks much better today, but how much of this is due to what both went through from 2005 to 2007 compared to pure football abilities?

I would say 75% abilities and 25% situation but I am curious about opinions out there. So with my 75/25 split, I believe people (including myself) were simply incorrect in thinking that A Smith = A Rodgers before the 2005 draft, as opposed to their individual situations from 2005 to 2007 causing the discrepancy.

For positions other than QB I believe the split is far more in favor of abilities and less situation. But for the QB position you can have an average QB that just loses his confidence and becomes a bad QB if put in a bad spot at a young age.

 

[trader jake]

Going into the draft I thought that Rodgers was the top QB (so I'm not coming from the same camp that Alex Smith was better to begin with) but there is no doubt that where the two players were drafted, and how much time they had to mature, played a huge roll in their careers.

Had Rodgers gone to SF he wouldn't be as good as he currently is.

Had Smith gone to GB he would be much better than he currently is.

With that said I do not believe Alex Smith would be as good as Aaron Rodgers currently is, nor would Aaron Rodgers have completely flopped out west. Agreed on the 75/25 on ability vs. situation split.

 

[Avery]

For one thing Rogers would have be forced into starting sooner and Smith would have had a couple of years to learn on the sideline watching Farve.

 

[bucsbaby]

I've been quite interested in this exact question. I remember watching the draft and watching Rodgers fall much farther than he was expected to. I remember them saying there was concern about his mechanics and that he holds the ball too high. Then I remember feeling for the guy when he got hurt in his first action after having to wait and then the whole Favre fiasco this offseason. Then how great he played this year. I think he's got a chip on his shoulder and he's playing great. It's hard to say how things might've turned out if he had been drafted high and thrust into the starting lineup in SF. But I do feel that whenever I look at Alex Smith I think he looks kinda scrawny, especially in the arms

 

[CalBear]

Going into the 2005 draft, I thought A Smith and A Rodgers had almost equal NFL potential. One got put in a very bad situation and started in his first year, the other one was put in a good situation and had years to learn from (watch) a future HOF QB. One became a bust, and although it's still too early to say regarding Rodgers, as of today it looks like he might go on to end up with a significantly better NFL career than A Smith.So I was wondering, if SF had drafted Rodgers and the Packers had gotten A Smith, would have Rodgers done much better than Smith? Would A Smith have bombed out with the Packers?

I felt at the time that Rodgers going to Green Bay was an ideal situation for him. At Cal, he did well in situations where he was comfortable, and poorly in situations where he was pressured. Having to be the face of the franchise from day 1, on that horrible offense in SF, would have been a bad situation for him; I don't know if he would have made it.I don't think Alex Smith has NFL talent; I don't think he would have succeeded, no matter where he went.

 

[EBF]

Smith showed a few flickers of potential in his sophomore season, but for the most part he's looked very bad. If you didn't know he was the #1 pick in the draft, you'd think he was just another 7th round flyer keeping a seat warm on the end of someone's bench.

I think a QB either has the goods or he doesn't. You can talk about the importance of spending time on the bench and learning, but in the end, you can either play or you can't play. Rodgers can play. I think he would've eventually developed into a quality starter for the 49ers. The first season or two might have been brutal, but I think his ability would've triumphed over the poor situation.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I don't understand the concept that sitting on the bench is better experience than playing - would think the opposite is true. I would say perhaps Smith's biggest adversity is the fact that he started every season with a new offensive coordinator.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Smith was not ready as a 21 year old rookie but almost no QB is. At age 22 he played just fine -- he had a very respectable age 22 season. He was off to a fine start during his age 23 season, but was injured and then did not play well. It looks like we might never find out how good Smith was going to be as injuries seem to have derailed his career. He might be able to recover and latch on to another team, but because of his status as a #1 pick he's taken a ton of criticism. I think a lot of it is unwarranted.

 

[hauser42]

I don't understand the concept that sitting on the bench is better experience than playing - would think the opposite is true. I would say perhaps Smith's biggest adversity is the fact that he started every season with a new offensive coordinator.

Getting thrown to the wolves can kill a guys confidence and screw up his career. Most of the guys thrown in from day one dont have the talent around them to be good from day one. Big Ben was good because of the talent around him, and he has been a solid QB.Playing in different systems has surely killed the chances of Alex Smith and what could have been.

 

[smackdaddies]

Smith went to the pack instead of Rodgers?

result - - - > Farve is still a Packer

 

[toxicbees]

I don't think it's over yet to be honest. In fact Aaron is a year older than Alex.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

I'm interested to see if Alex has a breakout much like Rodgers did in his 4th NFL season. Both looked very overwhelmed at times when they were young & learning on the job.

I think people expect out of college the Matt Ryans/Joe Flaccos/Peyton Manning's. Alex came into the league at a very young age. He's still only 25 & one of the younger starting QB's in the NFL. [only year older than Ryan & Flacco).

And unlike when he arrived, I believe he's got a nice arsenal of weapons at his disposal. He's probably got a 9 game tryout here to determine whether he's the QB of the future in San Fran [given they've got Carolina's #1 pick next year & will be set up to have their pick of QB's available]

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A similar relief effort by Rodgers (for Favre, vs. Dallas I believe) seemed to create a lot of optimism for him. Perhaps a similar effort vs. Houston last week is what Alex needed to jumpstart his career.

 

[basher]

I've been quite interested in this exact question. I remember watching the draft and watching Rodgers fall much farther than he was expected to. I remember them saying there was concern about his mechanics and that he holds the ball too high. Then I remember feeling for the guy when he got hurt in his first action after having to wait and then the whole Favre fiasco this offseason. Then how great he played this year. I think he's got a chip on his shoulder and he's playing great. It's hard to say how things might've turned out if he had been drafted high and thrust into the starting lineup in SF. But I do feel that whenever I look at Alex Smith I think he looks kinda scrawny, especially in the arms

The big knock on Rodgers at the time was his release point and more specifically mechanics taught by Jeff Tedford. At the time Tedford had run through a string of high profile busts at QB and teams were afraid they wouldn't be able to break the mechanics he taught. It is to his benefit he got to sit and take a few years to break him down and rebuild him up. Smith might have done better had he had consistency or didn't destroy his shoulder. Messing with a young QBs confidence by keeping him on the bench is easier to repair then the type of damage caused by the 9ers on not only starting Smith early but not giving him the proper staff and consistency he needed to become accustomed to the game.

 

[CalBear]

The big knock on Rodgers at the time was his release point and more specifically mechanics taught by Jeff Tedford. At the time Tedford had run through a string of high profile busts at QB and teams were afraid they wouldn't be able to break the mechanics he taught.

That's something a lot of fantasty football geeks talked about, but it was ridiculous then and it's ridiculous now. For example, Kyle Boller was included in the list of "Tedford QBs", despite the fact that he had 3 years of college coaching before Tedford showed up for one year, and now something like 7 years of pro coaching since then. But he's a Tedford QB? David Carr played with Tedford for one year as well. Akili Smith had two years. And so on. Talking about "Tedford QBs" was as silly as talking about "Penn State RBs" prior to Larry Johnson.In any case, Alex Smith sucks, and one half of one game where he scored three TDs against a soft defense, and then in a situation where he needed to drive for a TD, went 2-5 for 32 yards and threw an INT to end the game, does not change that.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

I don't understand the concept that sitting on the bench is better experience than playing - would think the opposite is true.

And yet........22 of the 32 starting QBs in the league sat on the bench their rookie years (or longer).

 

[basher]

The big knock on Rodgers at the time was his release point and more specifically mechanics taught by Jeff Tedford. At the time Tedford had run through a string of high profile busts at QB and teams were afraid they wouldn't be able to break the mechanics he taught.

That's something a lot of fantasty football geeks talked about, but it was ridiculous then and it's ridiculous now. For example, Kyle Boller was included in the list of "Tedford QBs", despite the fact that he had 3 years of college coaching before Tedford showed up for one year, and now something like 7 years of pro coaching since then. But he's a Tedford QB? David Carr played with Tedford for one year as well. Akili Smith had two years. And so on. Talking about "Tedford QBs" was as silly as talking about "Penn State RBs" prior to Larry Johnson.In any case, Alex Smith sucks, and one half of one game where he scored three TDs against a soft defense, and then in a situation where he needed to drive for a TD, went 2-5 for 32 yards and threw an INT to end the game, does not change that.

two seconds of google searching lead me to this article by Len Pasquarelli written in 2005 when Rodgers was drafted (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft05/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2039797) ... this isn't to say that ESPN or Len are elite football minds but clearly len doesn't write about fantasy football (and from what I gather he was one of the more "plugged in" writers during this timeframe) so labeling this as conjecture by "a bunch of fantasy football geeks" is quite off base.Ridiculous? hardly ... Tedford's system inflated numbers of mediocre QBs and it showed when they hit the NFL ... should it keep someone from drafting a talented qb from his system? no of course not but it should force teams to expand their evaluation of said players based on both track record and taught mechanics.

I do notice your avatar and can see why you stick up for your boy

 

[SSOG]

Smith showed a few flickers of potential in his sophomore season, but for the most part he's looked very bad. If you didn't know he was the #1 pick in the draft, you'd think he was just another 7th round flyer keeping a seat warm on the end of someone's bench.I think a QB either has the goods or he doesn't. You can talk about the importance of spending time on the bench and learning, but in the end, you can either play or you can't play. Rodgers can play. I think he would've eventually developed into a quality starter for the 49ers. The first season or two might have been brutal, but I think his ability would've triumphed over the poor situation.

I mostly subscribe to this theory, although I do think that otherwise serviceable QBs can definitely be ruined by being played too soon. I think the Texans ruined David Carr. I don't think Carr would be Peyton Manning, but I think he could easily be Jake Delhomme (pre-2009 Jake Delhomme) if he hadn't spent so much of his formative years getting beaten silly and forming bad habits. A truly great QB, however, is going to become truly great no matter what you do. A guy like Elway or Aikman or Manning can be thrown to the wolves in year 1, take an unbelievable beating, and still go on to achieve greatness. If Alex Smith were made of that kind of stuff, he wouldn't have lost his job to Shaun Hill.

 

[moderated]

Smith showed a few flickers of potential in his sophomore season, but for the most part he's looked very bad. If you didn't know he was the #1 pick in the draft, you'd think he was just another 7th round flyer keeping a seat warm on the end of someone's bench.I think a QB either has the goods or he doesn't. You can talk about the importance of spending time on the bench and learning, but in the end, you can either play or you can't play. Rodgers can play. I think he would've eventually developed into a quality starter for the 49ers. The first season or two might have been brutal, but I think his ability would've triumphed over the poor situation.

A guy like Elway or Aikman or Manning can be thrown to the wolves in year 1, take an unbelievable beating, and still go on to achieve greatness. If Alex Smith were made of that kind of stuff, he wouldn't have lost his job to Shaun Hill.

Aikman was awful his first couple years and even in his 3rd was barely average. He didn't start playing well until he was 26 in his 4th season.Elway was also horrible his rookie season, his 2nd season was no better then what Alex Smith did his 2nd season. He starting playing well at age 25.So while you may not have been trying to make a point in favor of Alex Smith you actually did. It's way to early to write off a 25 yr old QB who showed promise his 2nd season and then got hurt in his 3rd. He's now in his 4th.Many people were doubting Aikman and Elway after their first couple seasons.

 

[CalBear]

Ridiculous? hardly ... Tedford's system inflated numbers of mediocre QBs and it showed when they hit the NFL ... should it keep someone from drafting a talented qb from his system? no of course not but it should force teams to expand their evaluation of said players based on both track record and taught mechanics.

I do notice your avatar and can see why you stick up for your boy

Fans may look at passing stats; scouts look at what the players do. No scout worth his salary will choose a QB prospect based on the stats they put up in college. To think that Aaron Rodgers was going to fail because Akili Smith failed is as ridiculous as thinking that Nate Longshore should be an NFL success because Aaron Rodgers is an NFL success. They are individuals and they need to be assessed individually.

And Alex Smith sucks.

 

[basher]

So I do hiring for my company ... we have three colleges in my area ... 1 state school, 1 private school, and 1 community college ... by your logic a person in my position should simply do analysis on the person even though I know the programs they come out of, the information they are taught, the teachers who teach them ... will this stop me from hiring someone from the CC? no, but it does change the evaluation process of the individual. You would be fooling yourself to believe that this doesn't happen in the NFL.

the school, the system, and the coaches (coaching) are definite factors in the evaluation process of any NFL organization whether you choose to believe it or not.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Ridiculous? hardly ... Tedford's system inflated numbers of mediocre QBs and it showed when they hit the NFL ... should it keep someone from drafting a talented qb from his system? no of course not but it should force teams to expand their evaluation of said players based on both track record and taught mechanics.

I do notice your avatar and can see why you stick up for your boy

Fans may look at passing stats; scouts look at what the players do. No scout worth his salary will choose a QB prospect based on the stats they put up in college. To think that Aaron Rodgers was going to fail because Akili Smith failed is as ridiculous as thinking that Nate Longshore should be an NFL success because Aaron Rodgers is an NFL success. They are individuals and they need to be assessed individually.

And Alex Smith sucks.

A lot of people have been saying that about Kyle Orton for years. Now look at him. QB is the toughest position to evaluate. So much of it isn't in arm strength and tangible things on the field. Its mental. Alex Smith has the physical tools to become a fine starting QB in the NFL. We are about to find out if he has the mental aptitude.